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World Modeling

Core TagLast edit: Feb 3, 2023, 3:26 PM by _will_

World Modeling is getting curious about how the world works. It’s diving into wikipedia, it’s running a survey to get data from your friends, it’s dropping balls from different heights and measuring how long they take to fall. Empiricism, scholarship, googling, introspection, data-gathering, science. Applying your epistemology and curiosity, finding out how the damn thing works, and writing it down for the rest of us.

The eleventh virtue is scholarship. Study many sciences and absorb their power as your own. Each field that you consume makes you larger. If you swallow enough sciences the gaps between them will diminish and your knowledge will become a unified whole. If you are gluttonous you will become vaster than mountains.

Twelve Virtues of Rationality


World Modeling Sub-Topics

Mathematical Sciences

Abstraction
Anthropics
Category Theory
Causality
Game Theory
Decision Theory
Information Theory
Logic & Mathematics
Probability & Statistics

Specifics
Prisoner’s Dilemma

General Science & Eng

Machine Learning
Nanotechnology
Physics
Programming
Space Exploration & Colonization

Specifics
The Great Filter

Meta /​ Misc

Academic Papers
Book Reviews
Distillation & Pedagogy
Fact Posts
Research Agendas
Scholarship & Learning

Social & Economic

Economics
Financial Investing
History
Politics
Progress Studies
Social and Cultural Dynamics

Specifics
Conflict vs Mistake Theory
Cost Disease
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Industrial Revolution
Moral Mazes
Signaling
Social Reality
Social Status

Biological & Psychological

Aging
Biology
Consciousness
Evolution
Evolutionary Psychology
Medicine
Neuroscience
Qualia

Specifics
Coronavirus
General Intelligence
IQ /​ g-factor
Neocortex

The Practice of Modeling

Epistemic Review
Expertise
Gears-Level Models
Falsifiability
Forecasting & Prediction
Forecasts (Lists of)
Inside/​Outside View
Jargon (meta)
Practice and Philosophy of Science
Prediction Markets
Reductionism
Replicability

A definition by elimination

Properly considered, the overwhelming majority of content LessWrong is about modeling how the world is, including almost all posts on Rationality and all practical advice. The intended usage of World Modeling is to capture all content describing how the world is that is not captured by the more specific major tags of Rationality, World Optimization, and AI.

If content warrants a no to all of the above questions, then it is likely to be both relatively pure world modeling (not about optimizing in any direct way) and not already covered by an existing major category. It is then a good fit for the World Modeling category. Stuff like math, science, history

Some more examples

A study of how people historically exercised is World Modeling. Advice on the optimal way to exercise in the present day is World Optimization. A study of the Fall of Rome would be World Modeling. A review of current policies being discussed by people who want to cause changes in a present government should be classified as Optimization. It would be World Modeling too only if it is expected to be of interest to people with no immediate plans to try to alter government, for example a review on the effects of marijuana on productivity, driving, IQ, etc.

A Crash Course in the Neu­ro­science of Hu­man Motivation

lukeprogAug 19, 2011, 9:15 PM
196 points
92 comments38 min readLW link

A non-mag­i­cal ex­pla­na­tion of Jeffrey Epstein

lcDec 28, 2021, 9:15 PM
254 points
56 comments15 min readLW link1 review

Model­ling Trans­for­ma­tive AI Risks (MTAIR) Pro­ject: Introduction

Aug 16, 2021, 7:12 AM
89 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Quan­tum Explanations

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 9, 2008, 8:15 AM
77 points
59 comments6 min readLW link

Monopoly: A Man­i­festo and Fact Post

sarahconstantinMay 31, 2018, 6:40 PM
33 points
65 comments5 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

KatjaGraceApr 14, 2020, 12:00 AM
179 points
25 comments31 min readLW link1 review
(aiimpacts.org)

Fact Posts: How and Why

sarahconstantinDec 2, 2016, 6:55 PM
229 points
33 comments3 min readLW link

Why “Chang­ing the World” is a Hor­rible Phrase

ozziegooenDec 25, 2014, 6:04 AM
38 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Tech­nol­ogy Changes Constraints

johnswentworthJan 25, 2020, 11:13 PM
106 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Co­or­di­na­tion Prob­lems in Evolu­tion: Ei­gen’s Paradox

Martin SustrikOct 12, 2018, 12:40 PM
101 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

In­sights from Eu­clid’s ‘Ele­ments’

TurnTroutMay 4, 2020, 3:45 PM
124 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

Liter­a­ture Re­view For Aca­demic Out­siders: What, How, and Why

namespaceMay 9, 2020, 10:58 PM
177 points
6 comments15 min readLW link
(www.thelastrationalist.com)

Fix­ing The Good Reg­u­la­tor Theorem

johnswentworthFeb 9, 2021, 8:30 PM
123 points
25 comments8 min readLW link

Trans­porta­tion as a Constraint

johnswentworthApr 6, 2020, 4:58 AM
173 points
27 comments6 min readLW link1 review

A rev­olu­tion in philos­o­phy: the rise of con­cep­tual engineering

Suspended ReasonJun 2, 2020, 6:30 PM
127 points
50 comments21 min readLW link

“Win First” vs “Chill First”

lionhearted (Sebastian Marshall)Sep 28, 2020, 6:48 AM
91 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling

ZviJan 6, 2021, 6:30 PM
107 points
22 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How to Mea­sure Anything

lukeprogAug 7, 2013, 4:05 AM
101 points
52 comments22 min readLW link

Si­mu­lacra Levels and their Interactions

ZviJun 15, 2020, 1:10 PM
190 points
48 comments17 min readLW link1 review
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 12/​24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over

ZviDec 24, 2020, 3:10 PM
276 points
147 comments31 min readLW link2 reviews
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

What failure looks like

paulfchristianoMar 17, 2019, 8:18 PM
319 points
49 comments8 min readLW link2 reviews

In Defense of Politics

ChristianKlApr 10, 2020, 7:26 PM
16 points
23 comments7 min readLW link

Paper-Read­ing for Gears

johnswentworthDec 4, 2019, 9:02 PM
150 points
6 comments4 min readLW link1 review

A non-mys­ti­cal ex­pla­na­tion of in­sight med­i­ta­tion and the three char­ac­ter­is­tics of ex­is­tence: in­tro­duc­tion and preamble

Kaj_SotalaMay 5, 2020, 7:09 PM
114 points
37 comments12 min readLW link

Six eco­nomics mis­con­cep­tions of mine which I’ve re­solved over the last few years

BuckJul 13, 2020, 3:01 AM
189 points
58 comments9 min readLW link

Spaghetti Towers

eukaryoteDec 22, 2018, 5:29 AM
146 points
25 comments3 min readLW link1 review
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

There’s no such thing as a tree (phy­lo­ge­net­i­cally)

eukaryoteMay 3, 2021, 3:47 AM
305 points
52 comments7 min readLW link2 reviews
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

Re­view: For­agers, Farm­ers, and Fos­sil Fuels

L Rudolf LSep 2, 2021, 5:59 PM
23 points
7 comments25 min readLW link
(strataoftheworld.blogspot.com)

Reflec­tions on six months of fatherhood

jasoncrawfordJan 31, 2022, 5:28 AM
337 points
21 comments4 min readLW link
(jasoncrawford.org)

An Alter­na­tive In­ter­pre­ta­tion of Physics

dadadarrenMay 9, 2022, 12:52 AM
18 points
10 comments5 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Repli­ca­tion Dy­nam­ics Bridge to RL in Ther­mo­dy­namic Limit

Past AccountMay 18, 2020, 1:02 AM
6 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

We’ve built Con­nected Papers—a vi­sual tool for re­searchers to find and ex­plore aca­demic papers

discordyJun 8, 2020, 6:44 PM
202 points
41 comments2 min readLW link

How to an­a­lyze progress, stag­na­tion, and low-hang­ing fruit

jasoncrawfordJun 15, 2020, 9:02 PM
42 points
9 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Model­ling Con­tin­u­ous Progress

Sammy MartinJun 23, 2020, 6:06 PM
29 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What could one do with truly un­limited com­pu­ta­tional power?

YitzNov 11, 2020, 10:03 AM
30 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

Dark Matters

DiffractorMar 14, 2021, 11:36 PM
226 points
24 comments15 min readLW link

Vari­ables Don’t Rep­re­sent The Phys­i­cal World (And That’s OK)

johnswentworthJun 16, 2021, 7:05 PM
41 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Be­ing You by Anil Seth

AlexanderOct 26, 2021, 5:44 AM
32 points
20 comments11 min readLW link

Ret­ro­spec­tive forecasting

Ege ErdilJan 30, 2022, 4:38 PM
21 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Hu­man val­ues & bi­ases are in­ac­cessible to the genome

TurnTroutJul 7, 2022, 5:29 PM
92 points
51 comments6 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Past­cast­ing: A tool for fore­cast­ing practice

Sage FutureAug 11, 2022, 5:38 PM
86 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

The His­tory of Color in Chinese

lsusrApr 12, 2020, 4:05 AM
30 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.lsusr.com)

Con­sid­er­a­tions On Cost Disease

Scott AlexanderFeb 10, 2017, 4:33 AM
43 points
7 comments22 min readLW link

Every sys­tem seems ran­dom from the inside

eapacheApr 19, 2020, 11:02 PM
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

So­lar sys­tem colon­i­sa­tion might not be driven by economics

Stuart_ArmstrongApr 21, 2020, 5:10 PM
26 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

The Best Text­books on Every Subject

lukeprogJan 16, 2011, 8:30 AM
597 points
394 comments7 min readLW link

Sex, Lies, and Canaanites

Jacob FalkovichApr 23, 2020, 4:26 PM
16 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Me­la­tonin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott AlexanderJul 11, 2018, 5:40 PM
109 points
18 comments15 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Writ­ing Causal Models Like We Write Programs

johnswentworthMay 5, 2020, 6:05 PM
76 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

English Bread Regulations

jefftkMay 18, 2020, 1:20 PM
17 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Point­ing to a Flower

johnswentworthMay 18, 2020, 6:54 PM
59 points
18 comments9 min readLW link

What a 20-year-lead in mil­i­tary tech might look like

Daniel KokotajloJul 29, 2020, 8:10 PM
68 points
44 comments16 min readLW link

My pa­per was sig­nal­ling the whole time—Robin Han­son wins again

Tim LiptrotAug 4, 2020, 9:13 PM
49 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are some low-in­for­ma­tion pri­ors that you find prac­ti­cally use­ful for think­ing about the world?

LinchAug 7, 2020, 4:37 AM
27 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Are Amer­i­cans Be­com­ing More De­pressed?

caleboAug 7, 2020, 3:57 PM
26 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Out­come Ter­minol­ogy?

DachSep 14, 2020, 6:04 PM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Large Effects Can’t Prove Small Causes

BuckyOct 6, 2020, 5:34 PM
23 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Alpha α and Beta β

lsusrOct 10, 2020, 6:27 AM
9 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

No Cau­sa­tion with­out Reification

Gordon Seidoh WorleyOct 23, 2020, 8:28 PM
23 points
38 comments3 min readLW link

How do you read the news crit­i­cally?

ChristianKlOct 31, 2020, 11:48 AM
39 points
15 comments9 min readLW link

Open Prob­lems Create Paradigms

johnswentworthNov 9, 2020, 8:04 PM
49 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Model Depth as Panacea and Obfuscator

abstractapplicNov 9, 2020, 12:02 AM
8 points
3 comments15 min readLW link

The Power of Annealing

meanderingmooseDec 14, 2020, 11:02 AM
25 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Build­ing Blocks of Poli­tics: An Overview of Selec­torate Theory

Yoav RavidOct 12, 2021, 11:27 AM
69 points
23 comments47 min readLW link1 review

Tech­nolog­i­cal stag­na­tion: Why I came around

jasoncrawfordJan 23, 2021, 10:05 PM
187 points
76 comments8 min readLW link1 review
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] What are some real life Inad­e­quate Equil­ibria?

Eli TyreJan 29, 2021, 12:17 PM
49 points
63 comments3 min readLW link

Clar­ifi­ca­tions on tech stagnation

jasoncrawfordJan 31, 2021, 12:59 AM
20 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Eco­nomic Class

lsusrMar 2, 2021, 1:58 AM
24 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

How To Think About Over­pa­ram­e­ter­ized Models

johnswentworthMar 3, 2021, 10:29 PM
64 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

I’m still mys­tified by the Born rule

So8resMar 4, 2021, 2:35 AM
88 points
43 comments10 min readLW link

Gossip

Yoav RavidMar 21, 2021, 1:36 PM
12 points
7 comments11 min readLW link

The best fre­quently don’t rise to the top

Adam ZernerMar 25, 2021, 6:10 AM
34 points
37 comments4 min readLW link

We need a ca­reer path for invention

jasoncrawfordApr 29, 2021, 6:11 PM
51 points
18 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Your Dog is Even Smarter Than You Think

StyleOfDogMay 1, 2021, 5:16 AM
244 points
105 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Is driv­ing worth the risk?

Adam ZernerMay 11, 2021, 5:04 AM
26 points
29 comments7 min readLW link

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

CharlesDMay 27, 2021, 6:53 PM
25 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

So­cial be­hav­ior curves, equil­ibria, and radicalism

Eric NeymanJun 5, 2021, 1:39 AM
183 points
18 comments20 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Why did we wait so long for the thresh­ing ma­chine?

jasoncrawfordJun 29, 2021, 7:55 PM
100 points
19 comments12 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Prac­ti­cal an­throp­ics summary

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 8, 2021, 3:10 PM
14 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and Fermi: grabby, visi­ble, zoo-keep­ing, and early aliens

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 8, 2021, 3:07 PM
14 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Progress, Stag­na­tion, & Collapse

abramdemskiJul 22, 2021, 4:51 PM
38 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What does know­ing the her­i­ta­bil­ity of a trait tell me in prac­tice?

Kaj_SotalaJul 26, 2021, 4:29 PM
58 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

Analo­gies and Gen­eral Pri­ors on Intelligence

Aug 20, 2021, 9:03 PM
57 points
12 comments14 min readLW link

Hu­man­ity is Win­ning the Fight Against In­fec­tious Disease

lsusrAug 30, 2021, 1:31 AM
60 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

We Live in an Era of Un­prece­dented World Peace

lsusrAug 30, 2021, 10:25 PM
27 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

[Cross­post] On Hreha On Be­hav­ioral Economics

Scott AlexanderAug 31, 2021, 6:14 PM
95 points
6 comments22 min readLW link

How fac­to­ries were made safe

jasoncrawfordSep 12, 2021, 7:58 PM
140 points
44 comments18 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

In­sights from Modern Prin­ci­ples of Economics

TurnTroutSep 22, 2021, 5:19 AM
70 points
63 comments13 min readLW link

[Sum­mary] “In­tro­duc­tion to Elec­tro­dy­nam­ics” by David Griffiths—Part 1

lsusrSep 22, 2021, 10:22 PM
24 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Epistemic Strate­gies of Selec­tion Theorems

adamShimiOct 18, 2021, 8:57 AM
32 points
1 comment12 min readLW link

Post­mod­ern Warfare

lsusrOct 25, 2021, 9:02 AM
61 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

We Live in a Post-Scarcity Society

lsusrOct 30, 2021, 12:05 PM
50 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “The Bell Curve” by Charles Murray

lsusrNov 2, 2021, 5:49 AM
93 points
135 comments23 min readLW link

Chu are you?

Adele LopezNov 6, 2021, 5:39 PM
60 points
7 comments9 min readLW link
(adelelopez.com)

Robin Han­son’s Grabby Aliens model ex­plained—part 2

WriterNov 9, 2021, 5:43 PM
8 points
3 comments13 min readLW link
(youtu.be)

Are big brains for pro­cess­ing sen­sory in­put?

lsusrDec 10, 2021, 7:08 AM
43 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Ran­dom facts can come back to bite you

tailcalledDec 22, 2021, 5:33 PM
56 points
7 comments2 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Does Braess’s para­dox show up in mar­kets?

TekhneMakreDec 29, 2021, 12:09 PM
31 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are sane rea­sons that Covid data is treated as re­li­able?

ValentineJan 1, 2022, 6:47 PM
41 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

The Map-Ter­ri­tory Distinc­tion Creates Confusion

Gordon Seidoh WorleyJan 4, 2022, 3:49 PM
27 points
50 comments4 min readLW link

Be­fore Colour TV, Peo­ple Dreamed in Black and White

Sam EnrightFeb 1, 2022, 12:50 PM
57 points
24 comments2 min readLW link

Shot­gun Book Re­views: Against Method, The Knowl­edge Ma­chine and Un­der­stand­ing Nature

adamShimiMar 14, 2022, 8:13 AM
27 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Is Grabby Aliens built on good an­thropic rea­son­ing?

Steven ByrnesMar 17, 2022, 2:12 PM
35 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Ac­count­ing For Col­lege Costs

johnswentworthApr 1, 2022, 5:28 PM
340 points
41 comments7 min readLW link

The Jor­dan Peter­son vs Sam Har­ris Debate

lsusrApr 4, 2022, 12:55 AM
21 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

What is causal­ity to an ev­i­den­tial de­ci­sion the­o­rist?

paulfchristianoApr 17, 2022, 4:00 PM
44 points
26 comments5 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Repli­cat­ing and ex­tend­ing the grabby aliens model

Tristan CookApr 23, 2022, 12:38 AM
68 points
22 comments51 min readLW link

The Game of Masks

SlimepriestessApr 27, 2022, 6:03 PM
49 points
18 comments11 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Ion Im­plan­ta­tion: The­ory, Equip­ment, Pro­cess, Alternatives

nomagicpillMay 8, 2022, 10:30 PM
5 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(210ethan.github.io)

Fact post: pro­ject-based learning

dominicqJun 2, 2022, 8:18 PM
11 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

It’s Prob­a­bly Not Lithium

NatáliaJun 28, 2022, 9:24 PM
423 points
181 comments28 min readLW link

The Reader’s Guide to Op­ti­mal Mone­tary Policy

Ege ErdilJul 25, 2022, 3:10 PM
56 points
10 comments14 min readLW link

Fiber arts, mys­te­ri­ous do­dec­a­he­drons, and wait­ing on “Eureka!”

eukaryoteAug 4, 2022, 8:37 PM
106 points
9 comments9 min readLW link
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

The Book of The Machines (Chap­ter 8)

Justin BullockOct 7, 2022, 7:07 PM
2 points
0 comments40 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion to ab­stract entropy

Alex_AltairOct 20, 2022, 9:03 PM
194 points
70 comments18 min readLW link

Sig­nals of war in Au­gust 2021

yieldthoughtOct 26, 2022, 8:11 AM
66 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Have epistemic con­di­tions always been this bad?

Wei DaiJan 25, 2020, 4:42 AM
194 points
107 comments4 min readLW link1 review

The World Ac­cord­ing to Do­minic Cummings

Chris_LeongApr 14, 2020, 5:05 AM
58 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

Mar­ijuana: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott AlexanderJan 5, 2014, 8:41 PM
25 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

[Question] What are your fa­vorite ex­am­ples of dis­til­la­tion?

NaiveTortoiseApr 25, 2020, 5:06 PM
49 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

SlateS­tarCodex 2020 Pre­dic­tions: Buy, Sell, Hold

ZviMay 1, 2020, 2:30 PM
53 points
15 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Tails Com­ing Apart As Me­taphor For Life

Scott AlexanderSep 25, 2018, 7:10 PM
137 points
37 comments7 min readLW link4 reviews
(slatestarcodex.com)

In­tro­duc­tion to In­tro­duc­tion to Cat­e­gory Theory

countedblessingsOct 6, 2019, 2:43 PM
108 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

A Prob­lem With Patternism

B JacobsMay 19, 2020, 8:16 PM
5 points
52 comments1 min readLW link

Im­mor­tal­ity: A Prac­ti­cal Guide

G0W51Jan 26, 2015, 4:17 PM
52 points
61 comments37 min readLW link

Every­day Les­sons from High-Di­men­sional Optimization

johnswentworthJun 6, 2020, 8:57 PM
152 points
37 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] By what met­ric do you judge a refer­ence class?

B JacobsJun 15, 2020, 6:34 PM
7 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Me­di­a­tors of History

johnswentworthJun 27, 2020, 7:55 PM
25 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

The Se­cond Law of Ther­mo­dy­nam­ics, and Eng­ines of Cognition

Eliezer YudkowskyFeb 27, 2008, 12:48 AM
141 points
71 comments9 min readLW link

The Equa­tion of Knowledge

Lê Nguyên HoangJul 7, 2020, 4:09 PM
58 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Gödel In­com­plete­ness: For Dummies

jollybardJul 12, 2020, 9:13 AM
9 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Life Through Quan­tum An­neal­ing: How a quan­tum com­put­ing tech­nique could shape existence

ChrisMJul 13, 2020, 10:48 PM
2 points
1 comment16 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (I.)

Martin SustrikJul 19, 2020, 1:11 AM
158 points
38 comments24 min readLW link2 reviews

A Model of On­tolog­i­cal Development

Gordon Seidoh WorleyDec 31, 2020, 1:55 AM
25 points
6 comments24 min readLW link

“Go west, young man!”—Prefer­ences in (im­perfect) maps

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 31, 2020, 7:50 AM
24 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

In praise of fake frameworks

ValentineJul 11, 2017, 2:12 AM
85 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

Sapiens

VaniverApr 8, 2015, 2:56 AM
70 points
12 comments13 min readLW link

So­cial Interfaces

thoughtfulmadisonAug 9, 2020, 6:13 PM
14 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (III.)

Martin SustrikAug 11, 2020, 5:09 AM
71 points
7 comments22 min readLW link

Moloch and multi-level selection

thoughtfulmadisonAug 11, 2020, 7:08 AM
19 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Sta­tus for sta­tus sake is a fact of poli­ti­cal life

Tim LiptrotAug 18, 2020, 10:06 PM
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Em­pa­thetic vs In­trin­sic Oof

Ronny FernandezAug 24, 2020, 12:12 AM
8 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Changes in Reality

eapacheSep 7, 2020, 4:18 PM
5 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

A Toy Model of Hingeyness

B JacobsSep 7, 2020, 5:38 PM
16 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

The Short Case for Verificationism

ikeSep 11, 2020, 6:48 PM
6 points
57 comments1 min readLW link

God in the Loop: How a Causal Loop Could Shape Existence

ChrisMSep 15, 2020, 2:40 PM
1 point
4 comments17 min readLW link

[Question] What is com­plex­ity sci­ence? (Not com­pu­ta­tional com­plex­ity the­ory) How use­ful is it? What ar­eas is it re­lated to?

philip_bSep 26, 2020, 9:15 AM
5 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

The Felt Sense: What, Why and How

Kaj_SotalaOct 5, 2020, 3:57 PM
141 points
21 comments14 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Inac­cessible finely tuned RNG in hu­mans?

SandiOct 7, 2020, 5:04 PM
23 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Effec­tive Epidemiology

Mike HarrisOct 22, 2020, 7:45 PM
25 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

The Power & Tragedy of Names

SocratesDissatisfiedNov 6, 2020, 10:50 PM
12 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Anti-EMH Ev­i­dence (and a plea for help)

Wei DaiDec 5, 2020, 6:29 PM
94 points
47 comments5 min readLW link

How long does it take to be­come Gaus­sian?

Maxwell PetersonDec 8, 2020, 7:23 AM
134 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplicDec 12, 2020, 3:00 PM
40 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Would the Real Econ­omy Please Stand Up

eapacheDec 28, 2020, 2:05 PM
22 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Evolu­tions Build­ing Evolu­tions: Lay­ers of Gen­er­ate and Test

plexFeb 5, 2021, 6:21 PM
11 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

How my school gamed the stats

Srdjan MileticFeb 20, 2021, 7:23 PM
78 points
26 comments4 min readLW link

What is the VIX?

AnnapurnaFeb 26, 2021, 1:05 AM
21 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

We should not raise awareness

lsusrMar 1, 2021, 8:46 AM
34 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

D&D.Sci III: Mancer Matchups

abstractapplicMar 5, 2021, 7:07 PM
19 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

Un­con­ve­nient con­se­quences of the logic be­hind the sec­ond law of thermodynamics

Marco DiscendentiMar 7, 2021, 6:14 PM
9 points
45 comments2 min readLW link

Many meth­ods of causal in­fer­ence try to iden­tify a “safe” sub­set of variation

tailcalledMar 30, 2021, 2:36 PM
13 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

Spe­cial­iz­ing in Prob­lems We Don’t Understand

johnswentworthApr 10, 2021, 10:40 PM
144 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

Elec­tion re­sults in Cen­tral Europe match some pre-WW1 borders

ForensicOceanographyApr 24, 2021, 6:24 AM
19 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

The Neu­ral­ink Mon­key Demo

XelaPMay 3, 2021, 2:29 AM
19 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Alzheimer’s, Hunt­ing­ton’s and Mi­to­chon­dria Part 2: Glu­cose Metabolism

J BostockMay 3, 2021, 2:47 PM
9 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Could MMRPGs be used to test eco­nomic the­o­ries?

Yair HalberstadtMay 6, 2021, 2:26 PM
7 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

a vi­sual ex­pla­na­tion of Bayesian updating

Jan Christian RefsgaardMay 8, 2021, 7:45 PM
20 points
7 comments3 min readLW link
(www.badprior.com)

Tech­no­cratic Plim­soll Line

Martin SustrikMay 15, 2021, 8:34 AM
50 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

Ab­strac­tions and translation

Amir BolousMay 20, 2021, 2:45 AM
5 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] What are good re­sources for gears mod­els of joint health?

Randomized, ControlledJun 6, 2021, 5:39 PM
12 points
47 comments1 min readLW link

Im­prov­ing par­li­a­men­tary in­for­ma­tion processing

victorsintnicolaasJun 26, 2021, 4:11 PM
2 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­tro to Debt Crises

Connor_FlexmanJun 28, 2021, 11:50 PM
59 points
5 comments10 min readLW link

Anal­y­sis of World Records in Speedrun­ning [LINKPOST]

JsevillamolAug 4, 2021, 3:26 PM
64 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Book re­view: Knowl­edge and De­ci­sions by Thomas Sowell

victorsintnicolaasAug 8, 2021, 5:05 PM
23 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] Altered Traits

lsusrSep 23, 2021, 12:33 AM
62 points
12 comments11 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Who We Are and How We Got Here

Yair HalberstadtSep 24, 2021, 5:05 AM
16 points
4 comments15 min readLW link

An anal­y­sis of the Less Wrong D&D.Sci 4th Edi­tion game

Maxwell PetersonOct 4, 2021, 12:03 AM
14 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Nu­clear Es­pi­onage and AI Governance

GuiveOct 4, 2021, 11:04 PM
26 points
5 comments24 min readLW link

An Un­ex­pected Vic­tory: Con­tainer Stack­ing at the Port of Long Beach

ZviOct 28, 2021, 2:40 PM
286 points
40 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Is ge­net­ics “dark”?

David Hugh-JonesNov 1, 2021, 6:23 PM
40 points
12 comments5 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

A Brief In­tro­duc­tion to Con­tainer Logistics

VitorNov 11, 2021, 3:58 PM
245 points
22 comments11 min readLW link1 review

Equity pre­mium puzzles

Nov 16, 2021, 8:50 PM
19 points
4 comments12 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

A Bayesian Ag­gre­ga­tion Paradox

JsevillamolNov 22, 2021, 10:39 AM
73 points
22 comments7 min readLW link

Why Study Physics?

johnswentworthNov 27, 2021, 10:30 PM
65 points
30 comments3 min readLW link

The Learn­ing System

Henrik KarlssonDec 3, 2021, 7:08 PM
16 points
12 comments10 min readLW link
(escapingflatland.substack.com)

A Pos­si­ble Re­s­olu­tion To Spu­ri­ous Counterfactuals

JoshuaOSHickmanDec 6, 2021, 6:26 PM
15 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

Per­ish­able Knowledge

lsusrDec 18, 2021, 5:53 AM
98 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What is a prob­a­bil­is­tic phys­i­cal the­ory?

Ege ErdilDec 25, 2021, 4:30 PM
15 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Can each event in the world be at­tributed con­di­tions un­der which it oc­curs?

Maciej JałochaJan 1, 2022, 4:02 PM
1 point
3 comments1 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 2 (pref­ace)

Pablo RepettoJan 1, 2022, 5:40 PM
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 2 (solu­tion)

Pablo RepettoJan 17, 2022, 5:41 PM
10 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Lives of the Cam­bridge poly­math geniuses

Owain_EvansJan 25, 2022, 4:45 AM
101 points
40 comments3 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 3 (solu­tion)

Pablo RepettoJan 26, 2022, 10:18 PM
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Full Non-In­dex­i­cal Con­di­tion­ing Also As­sumes A Self Sam­pling Pro­cess.

dadadarrenFeb 12, 2022, 1:46 AM
7 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

D&D.SCP: Ano­ma­lous Acquisitions

aphyerFeb 12, 2022, 4:03 PM
44 points
26 comments9 min readLW link

In­tro to Nat­u­ral­ism: Orientation

Feb 13, 2022, 7:52 AM
153 points
19 comments7 min readLW link

Knowing

LoganStrohlFeb 13, 2022, 7:53 AM
81 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

How Many (Smallish) Or­ganic Com­pounds Are There?

chemslugFeb 20, 2022, 4:43 AM
22 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Am­bi­guity causes conflict

Ege ErdilFeb 26, 2022, 4:53 PM
24 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a good dataset for the mo­ments of the in­come dis­tri­bu­tion through­out his­tory?

Ege ErdilMar 12, 2022, 1:26 PM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Is there a link be­tween Im­mi­gra­tion Policy and In­fla­tion?

hawkebiaMar 17, 2022, 11:26 AM
9 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

The On­tics and The Decouplers

hawkebiaMar 24, 2022, 2:04 PM
11 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

We should stop be­ing so con­fi­dent that AI co­or­di­na­tion is unlikely

trevorApr 11, 2022, 10:27 PM
14 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

April was weird

lsusrApr 22, 2022, 4:07 PM
14 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Model­ing hu­man­ity’s ro­bust­ness to GCRs?

T431Jun 9, 2022, 5:34 PM
2 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Was the In­dus­trial Revolu­tion The In­dus­trial Revolu­tion?

Davis KedroskyJun 14, 2022, 2:48 PM
29 points
0 comments12 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

De­liber­a­tion, Re­ac­tions, and Con­trol: Ten­ta­tive Defi­ni­tions and a Res­tate­ment of In­stru­men­tal Convergence

Oliver SourbutJun 27, 2022, 5:25 PM
10 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

1689: Un­cov­er­ing the World New In­sti­tu­tion­al­ism Created

Davis KedroskyJun 17, 2022, 7:32 PM
7 points
0 comments9 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

Heb­bian Learn­ing Is More Com­mon Than You Think

Aleksi LiimatainenJun 19, 2022, 3:57 PM
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

De­liber­a­tion Every­where: Sim­ple Examples

Oliver SourbutJun 27, 2022, 5:26 PM
14 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (vii) The Marquee

party girlJun 25, 2022, 4:54 PM
5 points
0 comments19 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

Fore­casts are not enough

Ege ErdilJun 30, 2022, 10:00 PM
38 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

What Is The True Name of Mo­du­lar­ity?

Jul 1, 2022, 2:55 PM
21 points
10 comments12 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Through Fiction

YitzJul 6, 2022, 5:03 AM
5 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Mar­burg Virus Pan­demic Pre­dic­tion Checklist

DirectedEvolutionJul 18, 2022, 11:15 PM
29 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Ad­den­dum: A non-mag­i­cal ex­pla­na­tion of Jeffrey Epstein

lcJul 18, 2022, 5:40 PM
61 points
20 comments11 min readLW link

Ques­tions for a The­ory of Narratives

Marv KJul 29, 2022, 7:31 PM
5 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Ab­strac­tion sac­ri­fices causal clarity

Marv KJul 31, 2022, 7:24 PM
2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

I’m mildly skep­ti­cal that blind­ness pre­vents schizophrenia

Steven ByrnesAug 15, 2022, 11:36 PM
81 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

An in­tro­duc­tion to sig­nal­ling theory

MvolzAug 16, 2022, 9:37 AM
15 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Statis­tics for vague con­cepts and “Colors” of places

Q HomeAug 19, 2022, 10:33 AM
−1 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

The shard the­ory of hu­man values

Sep 4, 2022, 4:28 AM
202 points
57 comments24 min readLW link

First we shape our so­cial graph; then it shapes us

Henrik KarlssonSep 7, 2022, 3:50 PM
41 points
5 comments8 min readLW link
(escapingflatland.substack.com)

Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

Sep 20, 2022, 10:25 PM
28 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Book re­view: “The Heart of the Brain: The Hy­potha­la­mus and Its Hor­mones”

Steven ByrnesSep 27, 2022, 1:20 PM
56 points
3 comments18 min readLW link

[Question] Have you no­ticed any ways that ra­tio­nal­ists differ? [Brain­storm­ing ses­sion]

tailcalledOct 23, 2022, 11:32 AM
23 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

Col­lege Ad­mis­sions as a Bru­tal One-Shot Game

devanshDec 5, 2022, 8:05 PM
15 points
26 comments2 min readLW link

The Ori­gin of Con­scious­ness Read­ing Com­pan­ion, Part 1

Jacob FalkovichApr 6, 2020, 10:07 PM
21 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

[Question] What are the Nth Order Effects of the Coron­avirus?

Yoav RavidApr 7, 2020, 1:55 PM
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Would 2009 H1N1 (Swine Flu) ring the alarm bell?

DirectedEvolutionApr 7, 2020, 7:16 AM
32 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

On R0

ZviApr 7, 2020, 11:20 PM
63 points
6 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Prob­lems with p-values

lifelonglearnerApr 8, 2020, 12:58 AM
10 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(mlu.red)

Would 2014-2016 Ebola ring the alarm bell?

DirectedEvolutionApr 8, 2020, 2:01 AM
16 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Link Ret­ro­spec­tive for 2020 Q1

mraxilusApr 8, 2020, 12:38 PM
10 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(write.as)

Assess­ing Kurzweil’s 1999 pre­dic­tions for 2019

Stuart_ArmstrongApr 8, 2020, 2:27 PM
36 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What should I study to un­der­stand real-world eco­nomics? (I.e., To gain fi­nan­cial liter­acy)

Rudi CApr 8, 2020, 7:22 PM
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Test­ing and con­tact trac­ing im­pact as­sess­ment model?

JustinShovelainApr 9, 2020, 5:42 PM
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The One Mis­take Rule

ZviApr 10, 2020, 2:50 PM
43 points
15 comments2 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How to eval­u­ate (50%) predictions

Rafael HarthApr 10, 2020, 5:12 PM
122 points
50 comments9 min readLW link

Cu­ri­os­ity: A Greedy Feeling

DirectedEvolutionApr 11, 2020, 4:38 AM
39 points
7 comments10 min readLW link

Law school taught me nothing

ketchupduckApr 11, 2020, 2:30 PM
22 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] How should we model com­plex sys­tems?

ClimateDocApr 12, 2020, 9:23 PM
17 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Are there any nat­u­rally oc­cur­ring heat pumps?

FactorialCodeApr 13, 2020, 5:24 AM
14 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion cas­cades in sci­en­tific practice

RichardKennawayJul 29, 2009, 12:08 PM
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­ma­ture death paradox

bfinnApr 13, 2020, 11:15 PM
8 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Math­e­mat­i­cal In­tu­ition­ism and the Flow of Time

PolytoposApr 14, 2020, 12:25 AM
9 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Is this vi­able physics?

Daniel KokotajloApr 14, 2020, 7:29 PM
59 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

No­body does the thing that they are sup­pos­edly doing

Kaj_SotalaSep 23, 2017, 10:40 AM
56 points
6 comments2 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Noise Simplifies

johnswentworthApr 15, 2020, 7:48 PM
25 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

In­te­grat­ing Hid­den Vari­ables Im­proves Approximation

johnswentworthApr 16, 2020, 9:43 PM
15 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Treat­ments cor­re­lated with harm

Connor_FlexmanApr 16, 2020, 9:02 PM
40 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How much mo­ti­va­tion do you de­rive from cu­ri­os­ity alone in your work/​re­search?

NaiveTortoiseApr 17, 2020, 2:04 PM
25 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Bet­ter name for “Heavy-tailed­ness of the world?”

Daniel KokotajloApr 17, 2020, 8:50 PM
28 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

What Hap­pens Dur­ing a Recession

ElizabethApr 20, 2020, 3:03 AM
50 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What are the ex­ter­nal­ities of pre­dic­tions on wars?

Mati_RoyApr 20, 2020, 5:37 PM
6 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Link Sum­mary: Top 10 Repli­cated Find­ings from Be­hav­ioral Genetics

ErickBallApr 19, 2020, 1:32 AM
15 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Web Au­dio Echo?

jefftkApr 19, 2020, 2:30 AM
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

In­tu­itions on Univer­sal Be­hav­ior of In­for­ma­tion at a Distance

johnswentworthApr 20, 2020, 9:44 PM
20 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

De­scrip­tion vs simu­lated prediction

Richard Korzekwa Apr 22, 2020, 4:40 PM
26 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

In­ner al­ign­ment in the brain

Steven ByrnesApr 22, 2020, 1:14 PM
76 points
16 comments16 min readLW link

Last chance for as­sess­ing Kurzweil

Stuart_ArmstrongApr 22, 2020, 11:51 AM
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

What’s Hard About Long Tails?

johnswentworthApr 23, 2020, 4:32 PM
24 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Mo­du­lar em­piri­cal science

yhoisethApr 23, 2020, 11:22 AM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(yngve.hoiseth.net)

[Question] Do you trust the re­search on hand­writ­ing vs. typ­ing for notes?

NaiveTortoiseApr 23, 2020, 8:49 PM
25 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Player vs. Char­ac­ter: A Two-Level Model of Ethics

sarahconstantinDec 14, 2018, 7:40 PM
77 points
27 comments7 min readLW link3 reviews
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

The Ineffi­cient Mar­ket Hypothesis

lsusrApr 24, 2020, 7:33 AM
70 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Teach­ers: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott AlexanderMay 19, 2016, 6:13 AM
13 points
2 comments22 min readLW link

Wheat: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott AlexanderMar 31, 2014, 12:26 AM
18 points
2 comments17 min readLW link

Kin­der­garten in NYC: Much More than You Wanted to Know

Laura BDec 9, 2018, 3:36 PM
36 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

Autism And In­tel­li­gence: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott AlexanderNov 14, 2019, 5:30 AM
70 points
12 comments7 min readLW link1 review
(slatestarcodex.com)

SSRIs: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott AlexanderJul 8, 2014, 2:06 AM
18 points
0 comments27 min readLW link

Origi­nal Re­search on Less Wrong

lukeprogOct 29, 2012, 10:50 PM
48 points
48 comments12 min readLW link

Fast Take­off in Biolog­i­cal Intelligence

eapacheApr 25, 2020, 12:21 PM
14 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Ma­chine Learn­ing Anal­ogy for Med­i­ta­tion (illus­trated)

abramdemskiJun 28, 2018, 10:51 PM
87 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

UAP and Global Catas­trophic Risks

avturchinApr 28, 2020, 1:07 PM
7 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Mark Eichen­laub: How to de­velop sci­en­tific intuition

Kaj_SotalaOct 23, 2018, 1:30 PM
75 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Face­book AI: A state-of-the-art open source chatbot

FactorialCodeApr 29, 2020, 5:21 PM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(ai.facebook.com)

I do not like math

lsusrApr 29, 2020, 11:27 AM
33 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempereApr 30, 2020, 4:41 PM
22 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Against strong bayesianism

Richard_NgoApr 30, 2020, 10:48 AM
57 points
65 comments6 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Effi­cient Mar­kets and Academia

johnswentworthApr 30, 2020, 9:59 PM
52 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

FLI Pod­cast: On Su­perfore­cast­ing with Robert de Neufville

Palus AstraApr 30, 2020, 11:08 PM
6 points
0 comments52 min readLW link

Topolog­i­cal meta­physics: re­lat­ing point-set topol­ogy and lo­cale theory

jessicataMay 1, 2020, 3:57 AM
13 points
6 comments3 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

In­ter­view with Aubrey de Grey, chief sci­ence officer of the SENS Re­search Foundation

emanuele ascaniMay 1, 2020, 9:04 AM
12 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] Value of build­ing an on­line “knowl­edge web”

Joe KwonMay 1, 2020, 4:31 AM
2 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

2020 predictions

BuckyMay 1, 2020, 8:11 PM
11 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Narconomics

ketchupduckMay 3, 2020, 1:19 AM
75 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Biolog­i­cal evolu­tion as an anal­ogy for the mar­ket economy

SnorkelfarsanMay 3, 2020, 6:51 PM
6 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

How uniform is the neo­cor­tex?

zhukeepaMay 4, 2020, 2:16 AM
78 points
23 comments11 min readLW link1 review

Con­struc­tive Definitions

Chris_LeongMay 4, 2020, 11:50 PM
15 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

“AI and Effi­ciency”, OA (44✕ im­prove­ment in CNNs since 2012)

gwernMay 5, 2020, 4:32 PM
47 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(openai.com)

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_ArmstrongMay 6, 2020, 1:36 PM
143 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Maths writer/​cowrit­ter needed: how you can’t dis­t­in­guish early ex­po­nen­tial from early sigmoid

Stuart_ArmstrongMay 6, 2020, 9:41 AM
41 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How to quan­tify un­cer­tainty about a prob­a­bil­ity es­ti­mate?

micMay 6, 2020, 12:06 PM
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion to fore­cast­ing work­sheet

edoaradMay 6, 2020, 1:54 PM
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.foretold.io)

[Question] Tips/​tricks/​notes on op­ti­miz­ing investments

Wei DaiMay 6, 2020, 11:21 PM
83 points
67 comments1 min readLW link

[link] How many hu­mans will have their brain pre­served? Fore­casts and trends

Mati_RoyMay 7, 2020, 6:11 AM
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions’ in­di­vi­d­ual scores

Stuart_ArmstrongMay 7, 2020, 5:10 PM
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Covid-19 5/​7: Fight­ing Limbo

ZviMay 7, 2020, 7:00 PM
27 points
7 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Failures in tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing? A re­ply to Ord and Yudkowsky

MichaelAMay 8, 2020, 12:41 PM
44 points
19 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] Is there any sci­en­tific ev­i­dence for benefits of med­i­ta­tion?

CheerfulWarriorMay 9, 2020, 8:53 AM
16 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of peren­nial dis­cov­er­ies?

Mati_RoyMay 9, 2020, 6:17 AM
10 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­ject Pro­posal: Gears of Aging

johnswentworthMay 9, 2020, 6:47 PM
57 points
44 comments7 min readLW link

There is a war.

BenquoMay 24, 2018, 6:44 AM
39 points
31 comments14 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Really Fresh Baking

jefftkMay 10, 2020, 11:40 AM
26 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

The Great­est Host

trentbrickMay 10, 2020, 8:28 PM
33 points
8 comments14 min readLW link

Book re­port: The­ory of Games and Eco­nomic Be­hav­ior (von Neu­mann & Mor­gen­stern)

NisanMay 11, 2020, 9:47 AM
38 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Zoom Tech­nolo­gies, Inc. vs. the Effi­cient Mar­kets Hypothesis

Zack_M_DavisMay 11, 2020, 6:00 AM
72 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

Time­less Identity

Eliezer YudkowskyJun 3, 2008, 8:16 AM
51 points
248 comments14 min readLW link

How to take smart notes (Ahrens, 2017)

Yuxi_LiuJul 23, 2019, 3:34 PM
69 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

Le­gends of Runeterra: Early Review

ZviMay 13, 2020, 10:50 AM
13 points
12 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What are ar­ti­cles on “lifel­og­ging as life ex­ten­sion”?

Mati_RoyMay 13, 2020, 8:35 PM
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Dist­in­guish­ing lo­gis­tic curves

Stuart_ArmstrongMay 15, 2020, 11:38 AM
24 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Small Data

lsusrMay 14, 2020, 4:29 AM
25 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 5/​21: Limbo Under

ZviMay 14, 2020, 10:30 PM
15 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Stud­ies On Slack

Scott AlexanderMay 13, 2020, 5:00 AM
144 points
34 comments24 min readLW link1 review
(slatestarcodex.com)

Sub­space optima

Chris van MerwijkMay 15, 2020, 12:38 PM
61 points
7 comments1 min readLW link1 review

Dist­in­guish­ing lo­gis­tic curves: visual

Stuart_ArmstrongMay 15, 2020, 10:33 AM
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are Michael Vas­sar’s be­liefs?

Chris_LeongMay 15, 2020, 6:15 AM
20 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

The Ne­glected Virtue of Scholarship

lukeprogJan 5, 2011, 7:22 AM
306 points
157 comments3 min readLW link

Mak­ing your­self small

HelenMar 8, 2018, 2:26 PM
112 points
53 comments11 min readLW link

Why the tails come apart

ThrasymachusAug 1, 2014, 10:41 PM
280 points
100 comments7 min readLW link

Book Re­view: The Se­cret Of Our Success

Scott AlexanderJun 5, 2019, 6:50 AM
154 points
19 comments25 min readLW link2 reviews
(slatestarcodex.com)

The EMH Aten’t Dead

Richard MeadowsMay 15, 2020, 8:44 PM
189 points
86 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] Do any mam­mal species ex­hibit an im­mune re­sponse in some of the herd in re­sponse to the in­fec­tion in other herd mem­bers?

jmhMay 16, 2020, 5:33 PM
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Sig­nal­ing: Why Peo­ple Have Conversations

liam_hinzmanMay 20, 2020, 3:18 AM
15 points
21 comments3 min readLW link
(liamhinzman.com)

An­nounc­ing Progress Stud­ies for Young Schol­ars, an on­line sum­mer pro­gram in the his­tory of technology

jasoncrawfordMay 20, 2020, 12:52 AM
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Is there a way to repli­cate pho­to­syn­the­sis ar­tifi­cially?

basu_enterpriseMay 20, 2020, 7:45 PM
−2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If bac­te­ria gave us a tool for bio en­g­ineer­ing, have viruses given us a de­liv­ery mechanism?

jmhMay 20, 2020, 10:31 PM
5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How does pub­lish­ing a pa­per work?

LironMay 21, 2020, 12:14 PM
42 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What was your rea­son­ing for de­cid­ing to have ‘your own’/​ nat­u­ral-birthed chil­dren?

R LMay 21, 2020, 1:30 AM
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Orthogonality

lsusrMay 21, 2020, 3:17 AM
21 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The Oil Cri­sis of 1973

ElizabethMay 22, 2020, 3:50 PM
77 points
10 comments3 min readLW link1 review
(acesounderglass.com)

High­lights of Com­par­a­tive and Evolu­tion­ary Aging

johnswentworthMay 22, 2020, 5:01 PM
55 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Pre­dic­tions/​ques­tions about con­quis­ta­dors?

Daniel KokotajloMay 22, 2020, 11:43 AM
7 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Post-crash mar­ket effi­ciency 1696-2020

bfinnMay 22, 2020, 2:13 PM
21 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Mazes Se­quence Summary

ZviMay 23, 2020, 4:40 PM
78 points
2 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In Search of Slack

Martin SustrikMay 23, 2020, 11:20 AM
47 points
3 comments6 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

Evolu­tion is sam­pling error

willbradshawMay 23, 2020, 4:21 PM
37 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

[Question] Is tak­ing ba­copa good for life ex­ten­sion?

Mati_RoyMay 23, 2020, 8:54 AM
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Plague in As­sas­sin’s Creed Odyssey

ZviMay 24, 2020, 12:00 PM
39 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why We Age, Part 1: What age­ing is and is not

willbradshawMay 24, 2020, 9:06 AM
55 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

[Question] What is your in­ter­net search method­ol­ogy ?

George3d6May 23, 2020, 8:33 PM
16 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Op­pos­ing a hi­er­ar­chy does not im­ply egalitarianism

ViliamMay 23, 2020, 8:51 PM
7 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Notes about psychopharmacology

kseniaMay 23, 2020, 7:31 PM
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(n2t.net)

Why Ra­tion­al­ists Shouldn’t be In­ter­ested in To­pos Theory

jollybardMay 25, 2020, 5:35 AM
73 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

An ad­den­dum on effec­tive pop­u­la­tion size

willbradshawMay 25, 2020, 12:35 PM
18 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

On the Loss and Preser­va­tion of Knowledge

Samo BurjaMar 8, 2018, 6:40 PM
55 points
20 comments10 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Book re­view: The Sleep­walk­ers by Arthur Koestler

Richard_NgoApr 23, 2019, 12:10 AM
68 points
26 comments9 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

The Coper­ni­can Revolu­tion from the Inside

Bird ConceptNov 1, 2017, 10:51 AM
117 points
46 comments19 min readLW link

Two Kinds of Tech­nol­ogy Change

johnswentworthOct 11, 2018, 4:54 AM
61 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Why We Age, Part 2: Non-adap­tive theories

willbradshawMay 26, 2020, 5:41 PM
86 points
22 comments11 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

Wrinkles

johnswentworthNov 19, 2019, 10:59 PM
77 points
15 comments4 min readLW link

Homeosta­sis and “Root Causes” in Aging

johnswentworthJan 5, 2020, 6:43 PM
79 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

The Lens, Proge­rias and Polycausality

johnswentworthMar 8, 2020, 5:53 PM
70 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Adap­tive Im­mune Sys­tem Aging

johnswentworthMar 13, 2020, 3:47 AM
73 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Your ab­strac­tion isn’t wrong, it’s just re­ally bad

George3d6May 26, 2020, 8:14 PM
24 points
17 comments17 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

Shut­tling be­tween sci­ence and invention

jasoncrawfordMay 27, 2020, 9:25 PM
61 points
1 comment6 min readLW link1 review
(rootsofprogress.org)

Nor­mal­iza­tion of Deviance

Gordon Seidoh WorleyJan 2, 2020, 10:58 PM
62 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Spec­u­la­tions on the Fu­ture of Fic­tion Writing

johnswentworthMay 28, 2020, 4:34 PM
35 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

How to (not) do a liter­a­ture review

Katarina SlamaMay 30, 2020, 12:11 AM
73 points
7 comments6 min readLW link
(katarinaslama.github.io)

The Pre­sump­tu­ous Philoso­pher, self-lo­cat­ing in­for­ma­tion, and Solomonoff induction

Charlie SteinerMay 31, 2020, 4:35 PM
49 points
28 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Any­one recom­mend a video course on the the­ory of com­pu­ta­tion?

Eli TyreMay 30, 2020, 7:52 PM
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Restricted Diet and Longevity, does eat­ing pat­tern mat­ter?

jmhJun 1, 2020, 9:28 PM
7 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

May Gw­ern.net newslet­ter (w/​GPT-3 com­men­tary)

gwernJun 2, 2020, 3:40 PM
32 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Spar­sity and in­ter­pretabil­ity?

Jun 1, 2020, 1:25 PM
41 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

The Law of Cul­tural Proximity

eapacheJun 3, 2020, 2:18 AM
8 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Why isn’t as­sas­si­na­tion/​sab­o­tage more com­mon?

Rudi CJun 4, 2020, 6:04 PM
8 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

Pas­teur’s quadrant

jasoncrawfordJun 5, 2020, 5:47 PM
34 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] What is Ra?

Chris_LeongJun 6, 2020, 4:29 AM
18 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Most re­li­able news sources?

Eli TyreJun 6, 2020, 8:24 PM
37 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy in the Dark­est Timeline: Ba­sics of the Evolu­tion of Meaning

Zack_M_DavisJun 7, 2020, 7:52 AM
116 points
17 comments14 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness as Me­taphor: What Jaynes Has to Offer

HazardJun 7, 2020, 6:41 PM
15 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

An Illus­trated Proof of the No Free Lunch Theorem

lifelonglearnerJun 8, 2020, 1:54 AM
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(mlu.red)

Leg­i­bil­ity: Notes on “Man as a Ra­tion­al­ist An­i­mal”

HazardJun 8, 2020, 2:18 AM
13 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Are there good ways to find ex­pert re­views of pop­u­lar sci­ence books?

Kaj_SotalaJun 9, 2020, 2:54 PM
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Public Static: What is Ab­strac­tion?

johnswentworthJun 9, 2020, 6:36 PM
82 points
18 comments12 min readLW link

More on dis­am­biguat­ing “dis­con­ti­nu­ity”

Aryeh EnglanderJun 9, 2020, 3:16 PM
16 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Self-Pre­dict­ing Markets

eapacheJun 10, 2020, 10:39 PM
26 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is there some­thing like a “meta-en­cy­clo­pe­dia”?

PabloJun 11, 2020, 12:16 PM
16 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Carte­sian Boundary as Ab­strac­tion Boundary

johnswentworthJun 11, 2020, 5:38 PM
34 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Does equa­nim­ity pre­vent nega­tive util­ity?

Chris_LeongJun 11, 2020, 7:00 AM
14 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Two Kinds of Mis­take Theorists

DirectedEvolutionJun 11, 2020, 2:49 PM
8 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Ide­ol­ogy/​nar­ra­tive sta­bi­lizes path-de­pen­dent equilibria

Eli TyreJun 11, 2020, 2:50 AM
22 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Good and bad ways to think about down­side risks

Jun 11, 2020, 1:38 AM
17 points
12 comments11 min readLW link

[Link] “Will He Go?” book re­view (Scott Aaron­son)

ioannesJun 12, 2020, 10:16 PM
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] For mod­er­ately well-re­sourced peo­ple in the US, how quickly will things go from “un­com­fortable” to “too late to exit”?

DagonJun 12, 2020, 4:59 PM
76 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Down with Solomonoff In­duc­tion, up with the Pre­sump­tu­ous Philosopher

Charlie SteinerJun 12, 2020, 9:44 AM
13 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Test­ing Han­son’s hy­poth­e­sis about the use­less­ness of health care.

JoshuaFoxJun 13, 2020, 6:34 PM
28 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

You Can Do Futarchy Yourself

TetraspaceJun 14, 2020, 12:16 AM
51 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

In­tu­itive La­grangian Mechanics

lsusrJun 13, 2020, 9:19 AM
25 points
10 comments2 min readLW link
(www.lsusr.com)

The Eco­nomic Con­se­quences of Noise Traders

FactorialCodeJun 14, 2020, 5:14 PM
45 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nber.org)

Causal­ity Adds Up to Normality

johnswentworthJun 15, 2020, 5:19 PM
12 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Su­per­ex­po­nen­tial His­toric Growth, by David Roodman

Ben PaceJun 15, 2020, 9:49 PM
43 points
6 comments5 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Re­search snap-shot: ques­tion about Global Workspace Theory

HazardJun 15, 2020, 9:00 PM
21 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

High-School Alge­bra for Data Structures

johnswentworthJun 17, 2020, 6:09 PM
21 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Bathing Machines and the Lindy Effect

DirectedEvolutionJun 17, 2020, 9:44 PM
14 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Deriv­ing Gen­eral Relativity

lsusrJun 22, 2020, 9:52 AM
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Re­quest­ing feed­back/​ad­vice: what Type The­ory to study for AI safety?

rvnntJun 23, 2020, 5:03 PM
7 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Ab­strac­tion, Evolu­tion and Gears

johnswentworthJun 24, 2020, 5:39 PM
29 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Quick Look #1 Dio­phan­tus of Alexandria

SebastianG Jun 24, 2020, 7:12 PM
19 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

The Dark Mir­a­cle of Optics

Suspended ReasonJun 24, 2020, 3:09 AM
26 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Re­duc­tive Reference

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 3, 2008, 1:37 AM
44 points
48 comments6 min readLW link

An ag­ile ap­proach to pre-research

DirectedEvolutionJun 25, 2020, 6:29 PM
14 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­dus­try and workers

smaslennikovJun 25, 2020, 8:03 PM
−3 points
12 comments4 min readLW link
(smaslennikov.com)

Black Death at the Golden Gate (book re­view)

PeterMcCluskeyJun 26, 2020, 4:09 PM
17 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Miss­ing dog reasoning

Jun 26, 2020, 9:30 PM
27 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Covid 6/​25: The Dam Breaks

ZviJun 25, 2020, 6:30 PM
115 points
21 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In­sti­tu­tional Senescence

Martin SustrikJun 26, 2020, 4:40 AM
26 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

A Sketch of Good Communication

Ben PaceMar 31, 2018, 10:48 PM
156 points
35 comments3 min readLW link1 review

[Question] How ought I spend time?

QuinnJun 30, 2020, 4:53 PM
10 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

The ground of optimization

Alex FlintJun 20, 2020, 12:38 AM
218 points
74 comments27 min readLW link1 review

How to Find Sources in an Un­re­li­able World

ElizabethJul 1, 2020, 6:30 PM
40 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter. June 2020.

NunoSempereJul 1, 2020, 9:46 AM
27 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Se­cond-Order Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

IdeopunkJul 1, 2020, 6:46 PM
2 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

High Stock Prices Make Sense Right Now

johnswentworthJul 3, 2020, 8:16 PM
83 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

The silence is deaf­en­ing – Devon Zuegel

Ben PaceJul 4, 2020, 2:30 AM
27 points
13 comments1 min readLW link
(devonzuegel.com)

Causal­ity and its harms

George3d6Jul 4, 2020, 2:42 PM
16 points
19 comments11 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

Let There be Sound: A Fris­to­nian Med­i­ta­tion on Creativity

jollybardJul 4, 2020, 3:33 AM
3 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(jollybard.wordpress.com)

[Question] Could Nixon go­ing to China be a cause for the big stag­na­tion?

ChristianKlJul 5, 2020, 6:58 AM
16 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do you vi­su­al­ize the Pois­son PDF?

Rudi CJul 5, 2020, 3:54 PM
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] When a sta­tus sym­bol loses its plau­si­ble de­ni­a­bil­ity, how much power does it lose?

Mati_RoyJul 7, 2020, 12:48 AM
5 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

What should we do about net­work-effect mo­nop­o­lies?

benkuhnJul 6, 2020, 12:40 AM
49 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(www.benkuhn.net)

[Question] [Refer­ence re­quest] Can Love be Ex­plained?

Alexander Gietelink OldenzielJul 7, 2020, 10:09 AM
5 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is the sci­en­tific sta­tus of ‘Mus­cle Me­mory’?

Alexander Gietelink OldenzielJul 7, 2020, 9:57 AM
2 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Trans­late mu­sic in­to­na­tion into words us­ing color se­man­tics (as a means of com­mu­ni­ca­tion)

Alexey SmirnovJul 7, 2020, 3:26 PM
3 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Models of Value of Learning

johnswentworthJul 7, 2020, 7:08 PM
24 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Why Would A Cer­tain Hoax Story Be Re­ported For So Long?

ServantMar 24, 2011, 5:11 PM
12 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Worth re­mem­ber­ing (when com­par­ing ‘the US’ to ‘Europe’)

CuriousguyApr 13, 2013, 8:35 PM
20 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Does 3-2-1 Vot­ing work us­ing a six point scale?

TGetschmanJul 7, 2020, 9:06 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Say Wrong Things

Gordon Seidoh WorleyMay 24, 2019, 10:11 PM
111 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

Ni­coti­namide ri­boside vs. SARS-coV-2 update

William WalkerJul 8, 2020, 7:50 PM
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive cod­ing = RL + SL + Bayes + MPC

Steven ByrnesDec 10, 2019, 11:45 AM
53 points
8 comments8 min readLW link

The Brain as a Univer­sal Learn­ing Machine

jacob_cannellJun 24, 2015, 9:45 PM
157 points
169 comments19 min readLW link

Was a ter­mi­nal de­gree nec­es­sary for in­vent­ing Boyle’s desider­ata?

DirectedEvolutionJul 10, 2020, 4:47 AM
35 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

I Can Tol­er­ate Any­thing Ex­cept The Outgroup

Scott AlexanderSep 2, 2017, 8:22 AM
64 points
2 comments28 min readLW link

How The West Was Won

Scott AlexanderJul 26, 2016, 3:05 AM
39 points
10 comments17 min readLW link

The Ide­ol­ogy Is Not The Movement

Scott AlexanderApr 5, 2016, 1:52 AM
37 points
1 comment24 min readLW link

Differ­ent Worlds

Scott AlexanderOct 3, 2017, 4:10 AM
73 points
16 comments14 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Eth­nic Ten­sion And Mean­ingless Arguments

Scott AlexanderNov 5, 2014, 3:38 AM
63 points
8 comments22 min readLW link

The Cold War di­vided Science

Douglas_KnightApr 5, 2014, 11:10 PM
33 points
53 comments1 min readLW link

Astron­omy, space ex­plo­ra­tion and the Great Filter

JoshuaZApr 19, 2015, 7:26 PM
36 points
68 comments20 min readLW link

How prob­a­ble is Molec­u­lar Nan­otech?

leplenJun 29, 2013, 7:06 AM
67 points
56 comments8 min readLW link

Was a PhD nec­es­sary to solve out­stand­ing math prob­lems?

DirectedEvolutionJul 10, 2020, 6:43 PM
22 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Born as the sev­enth month dies …

Rudi CJul 10, 2020, 3:07 PM
6 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Why are cer­tain trends so pre­cisely ex­po­nen­tial?

orthonormalAug 6, 2011, 5:38 PM
29 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

Canon­i­cal forms

senJul 11, 2020, 6:53 PM
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.fimfiction.net)

Distinc­tions in Types of Thought

sarahconstantinOct 10, 2017, 3:36 AM
33 points
24 comments13 min readLW link

The Power of Intelligence

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 1, 2007, 8:00 PM
66 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Science eats its young

George3d6Jul 12, 2020, 12:32 PM
14 points
13 comments10 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

In praise of con­tribut­ing ex­am­ples, analo­gies and lingo

Adam ZernerJul 13, 2020, 6:43 AM
29 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Al­gorith­mic In­tent: A Han­so­nian Gen­er­al­ized Anti-Zom­bie Principle

Zack_M_DavisJul 14, 2020, 6:03 AM
50 points
17 comments12 min readLW link

Limits of Cur­rent US Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets (Pre­dic­tIt Case Study)

aphyerJul 14, 2020, 7:24 AM
188 points
49 comments7 min readLW link

Cal­ibra­tion Prac­tice: Retro­d­ic­tions on Metaculus

RaemonJul 14, 2020, 6:35 PM
31 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Gold­bach con­jec­ture is prob­a­bly cor­rect; so was Fer­mat’s last theorem

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 14, 2020, 7:30 PM
73 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

What Money Can­not Buy

johnswentworthFeb 1, 2020, 8:11 PM
279 points
45 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Anti-so­cial Punishment

Martin SustrikSep 27, 2018, 7:08 AM
254 points
64 comments6 min readLW link3 reviews

The Library of Scott Alexandria

Rob BensingerSep 14, 2015, 1:38 AM
112 points
33 comments7 min readLW link

The Cat­e­gories Were Made For Man, Not Man For The Categories

Scott AlexanderNov 21, 2014, 2:34 PM
74 points
9 comments18 min readLW link

Ta­boo Your Words

Eliezer YudkowskyFeb 15, 2008, 10:53 PM
187 points
131 comments3 min readLW link

Un­con­scious Economics

Bird ConceptFeb 27, 2019, 12:58 PM
110 points
30 comments4 min readLW link3 reviews

Philos­o­phy: A Diseased Discipline

lukeprogMar 28, 2011, 7:31 PM
142 points
448 comments7 min readLW link

Thou Art Godshatter

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 13, 2007, 7:38 PM
196 points
81 comments5 min readLW link

Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 12, 2007, 3:04 AM
102 points
36 comments3 min readLW link

Why as­so­ci­a­tive op­er­a­tions?

Sunny from QADJul 16, 2020, 12:36 PM
6 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(questionsanddaylight.com)

Why ev­ery­thing might have taken so long

KatjaGraceJan 1, 2018, 1:00 AM
103 points
16 comments3 min readLW link1 review
(meteuphoric.wordpress.com)

Why did ev­ery­thing take so long?

KatjaGraceDec 29, 2017, 1:00 AM
29 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(meteuphoric.wordpress.com)

The Chro­matic Num­ber of the Plane is at Least 5 - Aubrey de Grey

Scott GarrabrantApr 11, 2018, 6:19 PM
61 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

[Question] Erv­ing Goff­man’s ‘pa­per’

SaffronJul 18, 2020, 1:12 AM
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Cal­ibrate words, not just probabilities

MikkWJul 18, 2020, 5:56 AM
11 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Crit­i­cism of some pop­u­lar LW articles

DirectedEvolutionJul 19, 2020, 1:16 AM
70 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Math. proof of the su­pe­ri­or­ity of in­de­pen­dent guesses?

MiltonJul 19, 2020, 2:38 AM
−3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Praise of some pop­u­lar LW articles

DirectedEvolutionJul 20, 2020, 12:32 AM
40 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

Richard_NgoJul 20, 2020, 8:27 PM
175 points
36 comments11 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Un­cal­ibrated quan­tum ex­per­i­ments act cla­si­cally

justinpombrioJul 21, 2020, 5:31 AM
18 points
12 comments8 min readLW link

How good is hu­man­ity at co­or­di­na­tion?

BuckJul 21, 2020, 8:01 PM
78 points
44 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Are par­a­sitic worms an effec­tive weapon against MS?

DemeterJul 23, 2020, 1:59 PM
27 points
11 comments9 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (II.)

Martin SustrikJul 22, 2020, 1:50 PM
87 points
24 comments12 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

A Nat­u­ral Ex­pla­na­tion of Nash Equilibria

Dr. BirdbrainJul 25, 2020, 11:40 PM
3 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Mini-Re­view: ‘The Oxford Hand­book of Philos­o­phy of Cog­ni­tive Science’

lukeprogFeb 1, 2012, 9:48 PM
11 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Time se­ries fore­cast­ing for global tem­per­a­ture: an out­side view of cli­mate forecasting

VipulNaikJul 7, 2014, 4:25 PM
5 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

How to Seem (and Be) Deep

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 14, 2007, 6:13 PM
95 points
120 comments4 min readLW link

Ad­vanced Place­ment exam cut­offs and su­perfi­cial knowl­edge over deep knowledge

JonahSSep 1, 2013, 9:01 PM
12 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

The Orange Head Joke

Anatoly_VorobeyJan 25, 2011, 8:33 PM
30 points
96 comments2 min readLW link

LSD, Med­i­ta­tion, En­light­en­ment, and Ego Death

FinkApr 20, 2014, 7:41 PM
9 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

List of com­mon hu­man goals

EloAug 24, 2015, 7:58 AM
19 points
24 comments7 min readLW link

Effects of Cas­tra­tion on the Life Ex­pec­tancy of Con­tem­po­rary Men

FluttershyAug 8, 2015, 4:37 AM
16 points
52 comments10 min readLW link

The Atomic Bomb Con­sid­ered As Hun­gar­ian High School Science Fair Project

Scott AlexanderMay 26, 2017, 9:45 AM
41 points
8 comments14 min readLW link

Time­less Physics

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 27, 2008, 9:09 AM
51 points
121 comments12 min readLW link

What are the most com­mon and im­por­tant trade-offs that de­ci­sion mak­ers face?

Andy_McKenzieNov 3, 2014, 5:03 AM
13 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

New pa­per: Long-Term Tra­jec­to­ries of Hu­man Civilization

Kaj_SotalaAug 12, 2018, 9:10 AM
33 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Study on what makes peo­ple ap­prove or con­demn mind up­load tech­nol­ogy; refer­ences LW

Kaj_SotalaJul 10, 2018, 5:14 PM
21 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.nature.com)

[Question] Would a halfway copied brain em­u­la­tion be at risk of hav­ing differ­ent val­ues/​iden­tity?

GhatanathoahJul 30, 2020, 5:43 AM
9 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 7/​30: Whack a Mole

ZviJul 30, 2020, 3:50 PM
39 points
4 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Run­ning the num­bers: Cryo vs Dis­count rate

RomeoStevensJun 4, 2014, 7:54 AM
9 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

New Paper on Herd Im­mu­nity Thresholds

ZviJul 29, 2020, 8:50 PM
40 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] How has the cost of cloth­ing in­su­la­tion changed since 1970 in the USA?

DanielFilanJan 12, 2020, 11:31 PM
14 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

In­sights from ‘The Strat­egy of Con­flict’

DanielFilanJan 4, 2018, 5:05 AM
37 points
13 comments7 min readLW link

Free Ed­u­ca­tional and Re­search Resources

Rachel ShuJul 31, 2020, 12:24 AM
52 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

In­fer­ence & Empiricism

SatvikBeriMar 20, 2018, 3:47 PM
38 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

A Ker­nel of Truth: In­sights from ‘A Friendly Ap­proach to Func­tional Anal­y­sis’

TurnTroutApr 4, 2020, 3:38 AM
31 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

ODE to Joy: In­sights from ‘A First Course in Or­di­nary Differ­en­tial Equa­tions’

TurnTroutMar 25, 2020, 8:03 PM
36 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

En­forc­ing Type Distinction

lionhearted (Sebastian Marshall)Jul 31, 2020, 11:39 AM
25 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] Is this info on zinc lozenges ac­cu­rate?

philhJul 27, 2019, 10:05 PM
36 points
24 comments5 min readLW link

Value Impact

TurnTroutSep 23, 2019, 12:47 AM
62 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

De­duc­ing Impact

TurnTroutSep 24, 2019, 9:14 PM
64 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

At­tain­able Utility The­ory: Why Things Matter

TurnTroutSep 27, 2019, 4:48 PM
60 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

World State is the Wrong Ab­strac­tion for Impact

TurnTroutOct 1, 2019, 9:03 PM
62 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

The Gears of Impact

TurnTroutOct 7, 2019, 2:44 PM
50 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

At­tain­able Utility Land­scape: How The World Is Changed

TurnTroutFeb 10, 2020, 12:58 AM
51 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

The Era Of Un­limited Every­thing: Un­limited Ma­te­ri­als & Un­limited Money

jdcampolargoAug 1, 2020, 3:01 AM
4 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Effi­cient Mar­kets in Poli­ti­cal Power

johnswentworthAug 1, 2020, 4:49 AM
41 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What is ab­strac­tion?

Adam ZernerDec 15, 2018, 8:36 AM
25 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempereAug 1, 2020, 5:08 PM
21 points
4 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of ‘sci­en­tific’ stud­ies that con­tra­dict what you be­lieve about your­self?

Mati_RoyAug 3, 2020, 6:11 AM
12 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

How To Use Bureaucracies

Samo BurjaJul 17, 2018, 8:10 AM
63 points
37 comments9 min readLW link
(medium.com)

The Re­la­tion­ship Between Hier­ar­chy and Wealth

sarahconstantinJan 23, 2019, 2:00 AM
57 points
8 comments12 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

A sketch of ‘Si­mu­lacra Levels and their In­ter­ac­tions’

Yoav RavidAug 4, 2020, 9:13 AM
44 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

The Golden Age of Data

CollisteruAug 4, 2020, 9:35 PM
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Is Wire­cut­ter still good?

Ben PaceAug 7, 2020, 9:54 PM
45 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

The Man­ual Economy

eapacheAug 7, 2020, 10:29 PM
13 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

Aug 10, 2020, 1:04 AM
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What’s the ev­i­dence on fal­ling testos­teron and sperm counts in men?

Alexander Gietelink OldenzielAug 10, 2020, 8:58 AM
3 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

So­cial Dynamics

curiAug 10, 2020, 7:29 PM
10 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Money cre­ation and debt

AnthonyCAug 12, 2020, 8:30 PM
27 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Sen­tence by Sen­tence: “Why Most Pub­lished Re­search Find­ings are False”

DirectedEvolutionAug 13, 2020, 6:51 AM
22 points
5 comments47 min readLW link

The Case for Education

SamuelKnocheAug 14, 2020, 5:20 PM
23 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

The Best Ed­u­ca­tional In­sti­tu­tion in the World

SamuelKnocheAug 14, 2020, 5:18 PM
39 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

How webs of mean­ing grow and change

HazardAug 14, 2020, 1:58 PM
13 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

The Hu­man Condition

Martin SustrikAug 16, 2020, 5:23 AM
25 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Notes on Brain­wash­ing & ‘Cults’

gwernSep 13, 2013, 8:49 PM
76 points
105 comments16 min readLW link

Honors Fuel Achievement

Samo BurjaJun 10, 2019, 4:10 PM
38 points
2 comments8 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Mul­ti­tudi­nous out­side views

DavidmanheimAug 18, 2020, 6:21 AM
55 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Cy­ber­netic dreams: Beer’s pond brain

Yuxi_LiuNov 19, 2019, 12:48 PM
37 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Can we use ideas from ecosys­tem man­age­ment to cul­ti­vate a healthy ra­tio­nal­ity memes­pace?

Jun 13, 2019, 12:38 PM
36 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Me­taphilo­soph­i­cal Mysteries

Wei DaiJul 27, 2010, 12:55 AM
48 points
265 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How would we check if “Math­e­mat­i­ci­ans are gen­er­ally more Law Abid­ing?”

RaemonJan 12, 2020, 8:23 PM
26 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What ex­per­i­ments would demon­strate “up­per limits of aug­mented work­ing mem­ory?”

RaemonAug 15, 2019, 10:09 PM
33 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

In­tel­li­gence Am­plifi­ca­tion Interview

KatjaGraceMar 28, 2014, 10:21 PM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Sto­ries About Academia

Ben PaceSep 2, 2019, 6:40 PM
34 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

Judg­ment Day: In­sights from ‘Judg­ment in Man­age­rial De­ci­sion Mak­ing’

TurnTroutDec 29, 2019, 6:03 PM
24 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

A Quick Tax­on­omy of Ar­gu­ments for The­o­ret­i­cal Eng­ineer­ing Capabilities

RubyMay 21, 2019, 10:38 PM
29 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

See­ing the Ma­trix, Switch­ing Ab­strac­tions, and Miss­ing Moods

RaemonJun 4, 2019, 9:08 PM
34 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What is re­quired to run a psy­chol­ogy study?

RaemonMay 29, 2019, 6:38 AM
30 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are some “Com­mu­ni­ties and Cul­tures Differ­ent From Our Own?”

RaemonMay 12, 2019, 10:03 PM
28 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Stubs of Posts I’d like to Write

RaemonOct 7, 2017, 11:27 PM
11 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How could “Kick­starter for Inad­e­quate Equil­ibria” be used for evil or turn out to be net-nega­tive?

RaemonFeb 21, 2019, 9:36 PM
25 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

The Ass­hole Filter

DragonGodOct 7, 2017, 4:51 PM
21 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(siderea.livejournal.com)

The Just World Hypothesis

michael_vassar2Oct 9, 2017, 6:03 AM
15 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Start Un­der the Streetlight, then Push into the Shadows

lukeprogJun 24, 2013, 12:49 AM
51 points
29 comments8 min readLW link

Real-World Co­or­di­na­tion Prob­lems are Usu­ally In­for­ma­tion Problems

johnswentworthJun 13, 2019, 6:21 PM
33 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Grow­ing Up is Hard

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 4, 2009, 3:55 AM
48 points
41 comments7 min readLW link

Selec­tive pro­cesses bring tag-alongs (but not always!)

AnnaSalamonMar 11, 2009, 8:17 AM
34 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

New Post ver­sion 1 (please read this ONLY if your last name be­ings with a–k)

lukeprogJul 27, 2011, 9:57 PM
39 points
87 comments5 min readLW link

How is your mind differ­ent from ev­ery­one else’s?

Kaj_SotalaDec 5, 2011, 8:38 AM
40 points
267 comments1 min readLW link

How More Knowl­edge is Mak­ing Us Dumber

jdcampolargoAug 20, 2020, 3:08 PM
1 point
4 comments3 min readLW link

“Tech­nol­ogy and the Fu­ture of Per­sons”, by Lynne Rud­der Baker (2013)

CallmesalticidaeAug 20, 2020, 2:31 PM
5 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Long-Term Tech­nolog­i­cal Forecasting

lukeprogJan 11, 2012, 4:13 AM
35 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

How about test­ing our ideas?

[deleted]Sep 14, 2012, 10:28 AM
42 points
113 comments3 min readLW link

Notes on Psychopathy

gwernDec 19, 2012, 4:02 AM
42 points
100 comments35 min readLW link

Im­prov­ing En­joy­ment and Re­ten­tion Read­ing Tech­ni­cal Literature

sentientplatypusAug 7, 2013, 6:29 AM
45 points
39 comments3 min readLW link

The silos of ex­per­tise: be­yond heuris­tics and biases

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 26, 2014, 1:13 PM
48 points
16 comments9 min readLW link

[Re­tracted] Simp­son’s para­dox strikes again: there is no great stag­na­tion?

CarlShulmanJul 30, 2012, 5:55 PM
41 points
51 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How much can sur­gi­cal masks help with wild­fire smoke?

Gordon Seidoh WorleyAug 21, 2020, 3:46 PM
9 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Epistemic Com­par­i­son: First Prin­ci­ples Land vs. Mime­sis Land

ozziegooenAug 21, 2020, 10:28 PM
32 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What am I miss­ing? (quan­tum physics)

kithpendragonAug 21, 2020, 12:39 PM
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What posts on fi­nance would your find helpful or in­ter­est­ing?

AlexeiAug 22, 2020, 4:31 AM
32 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

“The Holy Grail” of port­fo­lio management

AlexeiAug 22, 2020, 4:25 AM
50 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Why don’t coun­tries, like com­pa­nies, more of­ten merge?

Vishrut AryaAug 22, 2020, 11:56 PM
13 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

Effi­cient Mar­ket Frontier

AlexeiAug 22, 2020, 11:52 PM
19 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

We­bBun­dles and URL Randomization

jefftkAug 26, 2020, 5:50 PM
10 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Are We Right about How Effec­tive Mock­ery Is?

Ronny FernandezAug 27, 2020, 10:48 AM
44 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

19th-cen­tury progress studies

jasoncrawfordAug 27, 2020, 2:28 AM
30 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Notes on “The An­thro­pol­ogy of Child­hood”

juliawiseAug 27, 2020, 5:11 PM
178 points
10 comments45 min readLW link

[Question] What is the in­ter­pre­ta­tion of the do() op­er­a­tor?

BunthutAug 26, 2020, 9:54 PM
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A Policy for Bit­ing Bullets

eapacheAug 31, 2020, 9:00 PM
6 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempereSep 1, 2020, 11:38 AM
16 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Au­gust 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwernSep 1, 2020, 9:04 PM
25 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Study Group for Progress – 50% off for LessWrongers

jasoncrawfordSep 3, 2020, 12:17 AM
14 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What’s the best overview of com­mon Micro­morts?

RaemonSep 3, 2020, 2:39 AM
37 points
8 comments1 min readLW link1 review

The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster

Thomas KwaSep 1, 2020, 9:41 PM
40 points
44 comments6 min readLW link

Emo­tional valence vs RL re­ward: a video game analogy

Steven ByrnesSep 3, 2020, 3:28 PM
12 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

“How to Talk About Books You Haven’t Read”, by Pierre Bayard

CallmesalticidaeSep 3, 2020, 1:05 PM
10 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Li and Vi­tanyi’s bad scholarship

alanfSep 5, 2020, 8:07 AM
−1 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Hello or­di­nary folks, I’m the Cho­sen One

dadadarrenSep 4, 2020, 7:59 PM
20 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Why would code/​English or low-ab­strac­tion/​high-ab­strac­tion sim­plic­ity or brevity cor­re­spond?

curiSep 4, 2020, 7:46 PM
2 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Ice

SlimepriestessSep 6, 2020, 6:30 PM
35 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Es­ca­la­tion Out­side the System

jefftkSep 8, 2020, 6:20 PM
25 points
11 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Loneliness

DirectedEvolutionSep 8, 2020, 8:14 AM
15 points
0 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] Effi­cacy of Vi­tamin D in helping with COVID

df fdSep 8, 2020, 10:49 AM
16 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

CTWTB: Paths of Com­pu­ta­tion State

johnswentworthSep 8, 2020, 8:44 PM
38 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

[Question] De­ci­sion the­ory anal­y­sis of whether vac­cines should be dis­tributed prior to the com­ple­tion of stage three tri­als please

Tim LiptrotSep 7, 2020, 11:50 PM
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Up­dates Thread

Adam ZernerSep 9, 2020, 4:34 AM
56 points
41 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] So­cial Cap­i­tal Paradoxes

abramdemskiSep 10, 2020, 6:44 PM
69 points
24 comments4 min readLW link

“In the Dust of This Planet,” by Eu­gene Thacker

CallmesalticidaeSep 10, 2020, 7:50 PM
4 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

What’s Wrong with So­cial Science and How to Fix It: Reflec­tions After Read­ing 2578 Papers

habrykaSep 12, 2020, 1:46 AM
104 points
22 comments2 min readLW link
(fantasticanachronism.com)

Progress: Fluke or trend?

jasoncrawfordSep 13, 2020, 12:21 AM
16 points
19 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

How To Fermi Model

Sep 9, 2020, 5:13 AM
85 points
9 comments11 min readLW link2 reviews

Against boots theory

philhSep 14, 2020, 1:20 PM
42 points
15 comments6 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

[Question] If Star­ship works, how much would it cost to cre­ate a sys­tem of rotable space mir­rors that re­duces tem­per­a­tures on earth by 1° C?

ChristianKlSep 14, 2020, 6:46 PM
13 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Work­ing With Contracts

johnswentworthSep 14, 2020, 11:22 PM
160 points
26 comments11 min readLW link

A case study in simu­lacra lev­els and the Four Chil­dren of the Seder

DirectedEvolutionSep 14, 2020, 10:31 PM
32 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Most Pri­soner’s Dilem­mas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Schel­ling Problems

abramdemskiSep 14, 2020, 10:13 PM
170 points
37 comments10 min readLW link3 reviews

What Does “Sig­nal­ling” Mean?

abramdemskiSep 16, 2020, 9:19 PM
38 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of sim­pler uni­verses that have been de­scribed in or­der to ex­plain a con­cept from our more com­plex uni­verse?

Mati_RoySep 17, 2020, 1:31 AM
4 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­pan­sive trans­la­tions: con­sid­er­a­tions and possibilities

ozziegooenSep 18, 2020, 3:39 PM
43 points
15 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Are air­craft car­ri­ers su­per vuln­er­a­ble in a mod­ern war?

LironSep 20, 2020, 6:52 PM
15 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How of­ten do se­ries C star­tups fail to exit?

Jessica ShuSep 21, 2020, 7:37 PM
14 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Com­par­a­tive Ad­van­tage is Not About Trade

johnswentworthSep 22, 2020, 6:43 PM
85 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Vi­su­al­iz­ing the text­book for fun and profit

DirectedEvolutionSep 24, 2020, 7:37 PM
25 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

I have dis­cov­ered a new kind of un­em­ploy­ment.

Nathan BrooksSep 24, 2020, 1:04 AM
12 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(seekingalpha.com)

[Question] What hard sci­ence fic­tion sto­ries also got the so­cial sci­ences right?

Mati_RoySep 27, 2020, 8:37 PM
15 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Do­ing dis­course bet­ter: Stuff I wish I knew

dynomightSep 29, 2020, 2:34 PM
27 points
11 comments1 min readLW link
(dyno-might.github.io)

Holy Grails of Chemistry

chemslugSep 30, 2020, 2:03 AM
34 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Three car seats?

jefftkOct 1, 2020, 2:30 PM
16 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempereOct 1, 2020, 11:00 AM
21 points
3 comments11 min readLW link

Math That Clicks: Look for Two-Way Correspondences

TurnTroutOct 2, 2020, 1:22 AM
35 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

At­ten­tion to snakes not fear of snakes: evolu­tion en­cod­ing en­vi­ron­men­tal knowl­edge in periph­eral systems

Kaj_SotalaOct 2, 2020, 11:50 AM
44 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Weird Things About Money

abramdemskiOct 3, 2020, 5:13 PM
76 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Fish­bowl re­al­ity

EloOct 4, 2020, 2:16 AM
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Link] Faster than Light in Our Model of Physics: Some Pre­limi­nary Thoughts—Stephen Wolfram Writings

KennyOct 4, 2020, 8:26 PM
1 point
14 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Fermi Challenge: Trains and Air Cargo

Ben PaceOct 5, 2020, 9:51 PM
23 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

The Rise and Fall of Amer­i­can Growth: A summary

jasoncrawfordOct 5, 2020, 9:41 PM
58 points
9 comments11 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Poli­ti­cal Lot­tery in Switzerland

Martin SustrikOct 8, 2020, 5:03 AM
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

More Ques­tions about Trees

digital_carverOct 9, 2020, 8:35 AM
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(bit-player.org)

Some el­e­ments of in­dus­trial literacy

jasoncrawfordOct 8, 2020, 7:51 PM
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Ex­am­ples of pos­i­tive-sum(ish) games?

Nicholas / Heather KrossOct 10, 2020, 9:09 PM
3 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Charisma is a Force Multiplier

Davis_KingsleyOct 11, 2020, 10:21 AM
34 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Tech­nol­ogy and its side effects

jasoncrawfordOct 13, 2020, 8:07 PM
17 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A prior for tech­nolog­i­cal discontinuities

NunoSempereOct 13, 2020, 4:51 PM
70 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Le­gal­ize Black­mail: An Example

Tim LiptrotOct 14, 2020, 9:18 PM
0 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Stu­pidity Ex­pand­ing? Some Hy­pothe­ses.

David GrossOct 15, 2020, 3:28 AM
70 points
42 comments5 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing ex­per­tise: a clear box model

JustinShovelainOct 15, 2020, 2:18 PM
36 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Covid 10/​15: Play­time is Over

ZviOct 15, 2020, 2:30 PM
74 points
22 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Moloch games

Chris van MerwijkOct 16, 2020, 3:19 PM
79 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

You have re­cov­ered from SARS-CoV-2. Now what?

AnnapurnaOct 18, 2020, 5:52 PM
15 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one re­searched speci­fi­ca­tion gam­ing with biolog­i­cal an­i­mals?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)Oct 21, 2020, 12:20 AM
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 10/​22: Europe in Crisis

ZviOct 22, 2020, 3:40 PM
80 points
13 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

“Lit­tle glimpses of em­pa­thy” as the foun­da­tion for so­cial emotions

Steven ByrnesOct 22, 2020, 11:02 AM
31 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Limited agents need ap­prox­i­mate induction

ManfredApr 24, 2015, 7:42 AM
16 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What is the cur­rent bot­tle­neck on ge­netic en­g­ineer­ing of hu­man em­bryos for im­proved IQ

Eli TyreOct 23, 2020, 2:36 AM
35 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is our true life ex­pec­tancy?

Adam ZernerOct 23, 2020, 11:17 PM
14 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Lo­cal So­lar Time

jefftkOct 23, 2020, 7:40 PM
16 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Su­per­vised learn­ing of out­puts in the brain

Steven ByrnesOct 26, 2020, 2:32 PM
27 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

In­te­gers as Compression

Chris_LeongOct 28, 2020, 7:36 AM
9 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What’s hold­ing back out­sourc­ing to cloud labs?

ChristianKlOct 28, 2020, 11:07 PM
25 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

How to Find the Fron­tiers of Knowledge

Samo BurjaOct 30, 2020, 10:50 AM
60 points
1 comment9 min readLW link
(medium.com)

[Question] Why does His­tory as­sume equal na­tional in­tel­li­gence?

HumaneAutomationOct 30, 2020, 11:11 PM
1 point
38 comments1 min readLW link

Why I Pre­fer the Copen­hagen In­ter­pre­ta­tion(s)

dadadarrenOct 31, 2020, 9:06 PM
5 points
44 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Oc­to­ber 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwernNov 1, 2020, 9:38 PM
24 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] What is the right phrase for “the­o­ret­i­cal ev­i­dence”?

Adam ZernerNov 1, 2020, 8:43 PM
24 points
41 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempereNov 1, 2020, 1:09 PM
11 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

The Born Rule is Time-Symmetric

lsusrNov 1, 2020, 11:24 PM
1 point
17 comments1 min readLW link

Zeno’s Paradoxes

Chris_LeongNov 1, 2020, 11:39 PM
8 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Three more sto­ries about causation

cousin_itNov 3, 2020, 3:51 PM
15 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

When Money Is Abun­dant, Knowl­edge Is The Real Wealth

johnswentworthNov 3, 2020, 5:34 PM
285 points
61 comments5 min readLW link3 reviews

[Question] Where do (did?) sta­ble, co­op­er­a­tive in­sti­tu­tions come from?

AnnaSalamonNov 3, 2020, 10:14 PM
148 points
75 comments4 min readLW link

Gifts Which Money Can­not Buy

johnswentworthNov 4, 2020, 7:37 PM
78 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Mul­ti­ple Wor­lds, One Univer­sal Wave Function

evhubNov 4, 2020, 10:28 PM
47 points
76 comments25 min readLW link

Notes on Jus­tice (as a virtue)

David GrossNov 5, 2020, 8:27 PM
5 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Im­pos­tor Syn­drome as skill/​dom­i­nance mismatch

ViliamNov 5, 2020, 8:05 PM
90 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Heat Engine

johnswentworthNov 5, 2020, 7:01 PM
155 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

“model scores” is a ques­tion­able concept

Maxwell PetersonNov 6, 2020, 3:19 AM
26 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Heat Eng­ine II: Ther­mo­dy­namic Effi­ciency Limit

johnswentworthNov 6, 2020, 5:30 PM
61 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

A re­view of Where Is My Fly­ing Car? by J. Storrs Hall

jasoncrawfordNov 6, 2020, 8:01 PM
101 points
21 comments11 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Ethics in Many Worlds

finNov 6, 2020, 11:21 PM
8 points
23 comments9 min readLW link

Three Open Prob­lems in Aging

johnswentworthNov 7, 2020, 7:39 PM
48 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_RoyNov 21, 2020, 3:24 AM
23 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

Why philos­o­phy of sci­ence?

Richard_NgoNov 7, 2020, 11:10 AM
53 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Can we prime peo­ple to take risk?

tonyoconnorNov 7, 2020, 5:17 PM
5 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Nu­clear war is un­likely to cause hu­man extinction

Jeffrey LadishNov 7, 2020, 5:42 AM
113 points
47 comments11 min readLW link3 reviews

When Hind­sight Isn’t 20/​20: In­cen­tive De­sign With Im­perfect Credit Allocation

johnswentworthNov 8, 2020, 7:16 PM
71 points
24 comments6 min readLW link

Fre­quen­tist prac­tice in­cor­po­rates prior in­for­ma­tion all the time

Maxwell PetersonNov 7, 2020, 8:43 PM
18 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Costs and benefits of metaphysics

George3d6Nov 9, 2020, 2:31 PM
11 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

Nov 9, 2020, 4:20 PM
43 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What frac­tion of Dan Ariely’s Ir­ra­tional Game hasn’t repli­cated?

Mati_RoyNov 9, 2020, 8:25 PM
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

My de­fault frame: some fun­da­men­tals and back­ground beliefs

PontorNov 10, 2020, 12:04 AM
6 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What Would Ad­vanced So­cial Tech­nol­ogy Look Like?

johnswentworthNov 10, 2020, 5:55 PM
43 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Why I’m Writ­ing A Book

Samo BurjaNov 10, 2020, 4:50 PM
33 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Are the so­cial sci­ences challeng­ing be­cause of fun­da­men­tal difficul­ties or be­cause of im­posed ones?

ozziegooenNov 10, 2020, 4:56 AM
55 points
13 comments11 min readLW link

Think in Terms of Ac­tions, not Attributes

CollisteruNov 11, 2020, 3:57 PM
7 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] Digi­tal Democ­racy Is Within Reach

AlexeiNov 11, 2020, 10:12 PM
20 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(your-undivided-attention.simplecast.com)

A Cor­re­spon­dence The­o­rem in the Max­i­mum En­tropy Framework

johnswentworthNov 11, 2020, 10:46 PM
33 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Book re­view: Age Later

PeterMcCluskeyOct 27, 2020, 4:21 AM
28 points
3 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Where can I find good ex­pla­na­tions of the cen­tral limit the­o­rems for peo­ple with a Bayesian back­ground?

Maxwell PetersonNov 13, 2020, 4:36 PM
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Charts

Rafael HarthNov 13, 2020, 4:12 PM
28 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

A Self-Embed­ded Prob­a­bil­is­tic Model

johnswentworthNov 13, 2020, 8:36 PM
30 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

The Dar­win Game—Rounds 3 to 9

lsusrNov 14, 2020, 2:26 AM
24 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

The Wis­dom of the Crowd so­cial learn­ing group

Jason GeringerNov 13, 2020, 9:33 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forms.gle)

My Con­fu­sion about Mo­ral Philos­o­phy

Nacruno96Nov 14, 2020, 3:49 AM
1 point
14 comments3 min readLW link

Spe­cial­ized La­bor and Coun­ter­fac­tual Compensation

philhNov 14, 2020, 6:13 PM
18 points
2 comments19 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

On Ar­gu­ments for God

Chris_LeongNov 14, 2020, 9:06 AM
9 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

Nov 15, 2020, 9:12 PM
68 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

How Rood­man’s GWP model trans­lates to TAI timelines

Daniel KokotajloNov 16, 2020, 2:05 PM
22 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Anatomy of a Gear

johnswentworthNov 16, 2020, 4:34 PM
76 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] How can labour pro­duc­tivity growth be an in­di­ca­tor of au­toma­tion?

PolytoposNov 16, 2020, 9:16 PM
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

On the Shoulders of Giants

meanderingmooseNov 17, 2020, 6:10 PM
1 point
5 comments6 min readLW link

AGI Predictions

Nov 21, 2020, 3:46 AM
110 points
36 comments4 min readLW link

The cen­tral limit the­o­rem in terms of convolutions

Maxwell PetersonNov 21, 2020, 4:09 AM
36 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

My in­tel­lec­tual influences

Richard_NgoNov 22, 2020, 6:00 PM
92 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

It’s not eco­nom­i­cally in­effi­cient for a UBI to re­duce re­cip­i­ent’s employment

paulfchristianoNov 22, 2020, 4:40 PM
87 points
60 comments4 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

De­mys­tify­ing the Se­cond Law of Thermodynamics

Eigil RischelNov 22, 2020, 1:52 PM
9 points
8 comments6 min readLW link

Syn­tax, se­man­tics, and sym­bol ground­ing, simplified

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 23, 2020, 4:12 PM
30 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Sny­der-Beat­tie, Sand­berg, Drexler & Bon­sall (2020): The Timing of Evolu­tion­ary Tran­si­tions Suggests In­tel­li­gent Life Is Rare

Kaj_SotalaNov 24, 2020, 10:36 AM
83 points
20 comments2 min readLW link
(www.liebertpub.com)

Con­volu­tion as smoothing

Maxwell PetersonNov 25, 2020, 6:00 AM
27 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Squig­gle: An Overview

ozziegooenNov 24, 2020, 3:00 AM
59 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

The Ex­ploita­bil­ity/​Ex­plain­abil­ity Frontier

ikeNov 26, 2020, 12:59 AM
24 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Squig­gle: Tech­ni­cal Overview

ozziegooenNov 25, 2020, 8:51 PM
18 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

De­con­struct­ing 321 Voting

abramdemskiNov 26, 2020, 3:35 AM
39 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

Ma­tryoshka Fara­day Box

lsusrNov 26, 2020, 9:42 AM
45 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Evolu­tion and fit­ness vs self-aware­ness and memetics

FractalParrotNov 29, 2020, 9:07 PM
3 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Book re­view: WEIRDest People

PeterMcCluskeyNov 30, 2020, 3:33 AM
97 points
54 comments9 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Why did the Ming trea­sure voy­ages end in 1433?

ChristianKlNov 30, 2020, 1:30 PM
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] AlphaFold: a solu­tion to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

adamShimiNov 30, 2020, 5:33 PM
54 points
22 comments1 min readLW link
(deepmind.com)

Non-Book Re­view: Pat­terns of Conflict

johnswentworthNov 30, 2020, 9:05 PM
38 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2020

NunoSempereDec 1, 2020, 5:00 PM
29 points
5 comments12 min readLW link

Book Re­view: ‘His­tory Has Be­gun: The Birth of a New Amer­ica’ by Bruno Maçães

tonyoconnorDec 1, 2020, 11:47 AM
3 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Why Re­cent Protein Fold­ing Ad­vance­ments Should Change Your Per­sonal Health Strategy

lisperatiDec 3, 2020, 2:39 AM
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Novem­ber 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwernDec 3, 2020, 10:47 PM
14 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempereDec 3, 2020, 10:00 PM
120 points
29 comments9 min readLW link

The Hard Prob­lem of Magic

enaumovDec 4, 2020, 6:51 PM
0 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Cul­tural accumulation

KatjaGraceDec 6, 2020, 6:20 AM
91 points
53 comments3 min readLW link
(meteuphoric.com)

1960: The Year The Sin­gu­lar­ity Was Cancelled

Scott AlexanderApr 23, 2019, 1:30 AM
96 points
15 comments11 min readLW link1 review
(slatestarcodex.com)

An el­e­gant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession

Eric NeymanDec 7, 2020, 10:43 PM
33 points
12 comments8 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Walk to a San Fran­cisco FedEx

KatjaGraceDec 9, 2020, 8:50 AM
27 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Notes on Know-how

David GrossDec 9, 2020, 5:21 PM
10 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Parable of the Dammed

johnswentworthDec 10, 2020, 12:08 AM
106 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What tech­nolo­gies could cause world GDP dou­bling times to be <8 years?

Daniel KokotajloDec 10, 2020, 3:34 PM
43 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Un­ex­plored modes of language

KatjaGraceDec 10, 2020, 7:00 AM
28 points
20 comments2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Flights of wonder

KatjaGraceDec 11, 2020, 10:50 AM
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Fermi Para­dox has not been dis­solved—James Fodor

mako yassDec 12, 2020, 11:18 PM
30 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] What con­fu­sions do peo­ple have about simu­lacrum lev­els?

johnswentworthDec 14, 2020, 8:20 PM
28 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

The wild

KatjaGraceDec 15, 2020, 10:50 AM
17 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

In­cen­tiviz­ing fore­cast­ing via so­cial media

Dec 16, 2020, 12:15 PM
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] How long till In­verse AlphaFold?

Daniel KokotajloDec 17, 2020, 7:56 PM
41 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

We des­per­ately need to talk more about hu­man challenge tri­als.

DirectedEvolutionDec 19, 2020, 10:00 AM
28 points
25 comments4 min readLW link

In­ter­ac­tive ex­plo­ra­tion of LessWrong and other large col­lec­tions of documents

Dec 20, 2020, 7:06 PM
49 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

The Best Vi­su­al­iza­tions on Every Subject

ryan_bDec 21, 2020, 10:51 PM
58 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

When life was liter­ally full of crap

jasoncrawfordDec 21, 2020, 9:16 PM
59 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The First Sam­ple Gives the Most Information

Mark XuDec 24, 2020, 8:39 PM
118 points
14 comments1 min readLW link1 review
(markxu.com)

[Question] What ev­i­dence will tell us about the new strain? How are you up­dat­ing?

ZviDec 25, 2020, 9:37 PM
83 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Perfec­tion­ism as depth-first search

MSRayneDec 29, 2020, 1:49 AM
5 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Book Re­view: On In­tel­li­gence by Jeff Hawk­ins (and San­dra Blakeslee)

Rafael HarthDec 29, 2020, 7:48 PM
20 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

The map and ter­ri­tory of NFT art

frcassarinoDec 29, 2020, 11:45 AM
27 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

Stock mar­ket hints for 2021 from past crashes

bfinnDec 30, 2020, 8:05 PM
19 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

SpaceX will have mas­sive im­pact in the next decade

ChristianKlDec 31, 2020, 1:04 AM
35 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

A Sim­plified Ver­sion of Per­spec­tive Solu­tion to the Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

dadadarrenDec 31, 2020, 6:27 PM
9 points
40 comments5 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Pre­dic­tions for 2021

Eric NeymanDec 31, 2020, 9:12 PM
8 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2020

NunoSempereJan 1, 2021, 4:07 PM
13 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

More predictions

Tim LiptrotJan 2, 2021, 3:53 PM
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What tech­ni­cal-ish books do you recom­mend that are read­able on Kin­dle?

Rudi CJan 3, 2021, 8:54 PM
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Ra­tional Ot­tawa Pre­dic­tions for 2021

eapacheJan 3, 2021, 8:53 PM
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(grandunifiedempty.com)

The Sense-Mak­ing Web

Chris_LeongJan 4, 2021, 6:17 AM
39 points
21 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2021 (+ a tem­plate for yours)

epiphiJan 5, 2021, 3:35 AM
17 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Why is loss of mus­cle cells not con­sid­ered one of the hal­l­marks of ag­ing?

ChristianKlJan 5, 2021, 2:19 PM
11 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Links for Dec 2020

ikeJan 5, 2021, 7:53 PM
12 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(www.facebook.com)

Cen­trally planned war

KatjaGraceJan 6, 2021, 10:40 AM
15 points
24 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Grokking illusionism

Joe CarlsmithJan 6, 2021, 5:50 AM
41 points
49 comments9 min readLW link

Les­sons from “The Book of My Life”

bmgarfinkelJan 6, 2021, 10:40 PM
104 points
3 comments16 min readLW link
(benmgarfinkel.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my 2020 predictions

Eric NeymanJan 7, 2021, 12:33 AM
8 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Why the out­side view sug­gests that longevity es­cape ve­loc­ity is a long time away and cry­on­ics is a much more fea­si­ble op­tion for those al­ive to­day: sig­nal-boost­ing a com­ment by Calm-Meet9916 on Reddit

SynapticJan 8, 2021, 5:20 PM
32 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Jo­hannes Ke­pler, Sun Worshipper

RubyJan 9, 2021, 7:09 AM
35 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Re­view.

NunoSempereJan 10, 2021, 4:06 PM
28 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

A differ­ent dictionary

KatjaGraceJan 10, 2021, 6:30 AM
17 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

[Question] Base rate of RCT from de­vel­op­ing coun­tries find­ing un­ex­pected effects

MichaelLoweJan 12, 2021, 1:57 AM
18 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Any ex­am­ples of peo­ple an­a­lyz­ing/​cri­tiquing sci­en­tific stud­ies or pa­pers?

warrenjordanJan 13, 2021, 6:00 PM
3 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

In­te­grat­ing the Lindy Effect

lsusrSep 7, 2019, 5:38 PM
50 points
11 comments2 min readLW link1 review

Med­i­ta­tions on faith

Richard_NgoJan 15, 2021, 10:20 PM
30 points
9 comments6 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

AR Glasses: Much more than you wanted to know

frcassarinoJan 16, 2021, 12:31 AM
12 points
6 comments17 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

[Question] Why do stocks go up?

tryactionsJan 17, 2021, 4:36 PM
27 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How can I find trust­wor­thy dietary ad­vice?

Daniel KokotajloJan 17, 2021, 1:11 PM
30 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

What is go­ing on in the world?

KatjaGraceJan 17, 2021, 11:30 AM
84 points
48 comments3 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Use con­di­tional prob­a­bil­ities to clear up er­ror rate confusion

Maxwell PetersonJan 17, 2021, 8:27 AM
5 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Three types of Evidence

Rafael HarthJan 19, 2021, 5:25 PM
14 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Dis­cov­ery fic­tion for the Pythagorean theorem

riceissaJan 19, 2021, 2:09 AM
15 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Demo­cratic Currency

MikkWJan 19, 2021, 5:32 AM
11 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Matt Lev­ine on “Fraud is no fun with­out friends.”

RaemonJan 19, 2021, 6:23 PM
104 points
24 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bloomberg.com)

Deutsch and Yud­kowsky on sci­en­tific explanation

Richard_NgoJan 20, 2021, 1:00 AM
25 points
19 comments6 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

The Tele­olog­i­cal Mechanism

Gordon Seidoh WorleyJan 19, 2021, 11:58 PM
7 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion: As­tra Zeneca ap­proval date

Tim LiptrotJan 19, 2021, 9:59 PM
11 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Zen and Ra­tion­al­ity: Karma

Gordon Seidoh WorleyJan 12, 2021, 8:56 PM
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Multi-Tower Study Strategy

DirectedEvolutionJan 21, 2021, 8:42 AM
51 points
8 comments8 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] The Chrysan­the­mum and the Sword

lsusrJan 22, 2021, 6:29 AM
24 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How good are our mouse mod­els (psy­chol­ogy, biol­ogy, medicine, etc.), ig­nor­ing trans­la­tion into hu­mans, just in terms of un­der­stand­ing mice? (Same ques­tion for drosophila.)

RubyJan 22, 2021, 8:45 PM
60 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­er­cise: Ta­boo “Should”

johnswentworthJan 22, 2021, 9:02 PM
91 points
25 comments9 min readLW link

Ten­ta­tive covid sur­face risk estimates

KatjaGraceJan 25, 2021, 9:40 AM
92 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

A per­spec­tive on co­vari­ate ad­just­ment and con­found­ing in ran­dom­ized ex­per­i­ments.

DarrenJan 25, 2021, 8:22 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

What is up with spiritu­al­ity?

KatjaGraceJan 27, 2021, 6:20 AM
20 points
14 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Build Your Num­ber Sense

DirectedEvolutionJan 27, 2021, 9:01 PM
21 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one on LW writ­ten about ma­te­rial bot­tle­necks be­ing the main fac­tor in mak­ing any tech­nolog­i­cal progress?

George3d6Jan 27, 2021, 2:14 PM
11 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Did con­va­les­cent plasma ther­apy drive the evolu­tion of more in­fec­tious covid strains?

Angela PretoriusJan 27, 2021, 6:16 AM
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Where num­bers come from

Eigil RischelJan 28, 2021, 9:33 PM
27 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] For those who ad­vo­cate Anki

jmhJan 31, 2021, 12:01 AM
20 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Smug­gled frames

Artyom KazakFeb 1, 2021, 1:22 AM
64 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2021

NunoSempereFeb 1, 2021, 11:07 PM
20 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Late-talk­ing kids and “Ein­stein syn­drome”

Steven ByrnesFeb 3, 2021, 3:16 PM
30 points
27 comments6 min readLW link

Covid cafes

KatjaGraceFeb 3, 2021, 8:20 AM
24 points
9 comments3 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

In­tu­itions about utilities

mingyuanFeb 6, 2021, 12:12 AM
32 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Fake Frame­works for Zen Med­i­ta­tion (Sum­mary of Sek­ida’s Zen Train­ing)

Gordon Seidoh WorleyFeb 6, 2021, 3:38 PM
52 points
10 comments10 min readLW link

Democ­racy, Bureau­cracy, Cen­tral Banking

Martin SustrikFeb 7, 2021, 8:54 AM
18 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Why I Am Not in Charge

ZviFeb 7, 2021, 6:20 PM
142 points
22 comments25 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Met­ric se­lec­tion bias: why Moore’s law is less im­por­tant than you think

Aaron BergmanFeb 8, 2021, 12:21 AM
18 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(aaronbergman.substack.com)

His­tory of the Public Suffix List

jefftkFeb 7, 2021, 10:20 PM
11 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Book re­view: The Geog­ra­phy of Thought

PeterMcCluskeyFeb 9, 2021, 6:47 PM
72 points
37 comments5 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Still Not in Charge

ZviFeb 9, 2021, 4:00 PM
46 points
26 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Un­wit­ting cult leaders

Kaj_SotalaFeb 11, 2021, 11:10 AM
107 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

[Question] What does the FDA ac­tu­ally do be­tween get­ting the trial re­sults and hav­ing their meet­ing?

ChristianKlFeb 12, 2021, 1:08 PM
28 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Su­per-fore­cast­ers as a ser­vice

frcassarinoFeb 12, 2021, 1:35 PM
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

Notes on Hen­rich’s “The WEIRDest Peo­ple in the World” (2020)

MichaelAFeb 14, 2021, 8:40 AM
17 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Chi­nese History

lsusrFeb 15, 2021, 6:43 AM
43 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Math­e­mat­i­cal Models of Progress?

abramdemskiFeb 16, 2021, 12:21 AM
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

He­lio­cen­trism in the an­cient era

ForensicOceanographyFeb 16, 2021, 8:34 AM
16 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(forensicoceanography.wordpress.com)

Gen­er­al­ised mod­els as a category

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 16, 2021, 4:08 PM
24 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Prepar­ing to land on Jezero Crater, Mars: Notes from NASEM livestream

YitzFeb 17, 2021, 7:35 PM
3 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

On the Na­ture of Reputation

Martin SustrikFeb 20, 2021, 12:50 PM
17 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

The Kelly Cri­te­rion in 3D

lsusrFeb 20, 2021, 8:21 AM
44 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­po­nen­tial growth is the baseline

jasoncrawfordFeb 22, 2021, 2:08 AM
27 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The slopes to com­mon sense

George3d6Feb 22, 2021, 7:22 PM
47 points
19 comments8 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

[Fic­tion] Lena (MMAcevedo)

Kaj_SotalaFeb 23, 2021, 7:46 PM
43 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(qntm.org)

Sur­vey on cor­ti­cal unifor­mity—an ex­pert am­plifi­ca­tion exercise

Feb 23, 2021, 10:13 PM
37 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Differ­ent kinds of lan­guage proficiency

Kaj_SotalaFeb 26, 2021, 6:20 PM
34 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

The Case for Pri­vacy Optimism

bmgarfinkelMar 10, 2020, 8:30 PM
43 points
1 comment32 min readLW link
(benmgarfinkel.wordpress.com)

Naïve Set The­ory—Part 1: Con­struc­tion of Sets

Sai Sasank YFeb 28, 2021, 11:57 AM
1 point
23 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly *is* (just) about log­a­r­ith­mic utility

abramdemskiMar 1, 2021, 8:02 PM
83 points
20 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] Are the Born prob­a­bil­ities re­ally that mys­te­ri­ous?

Adele LopezMar 2, 2021, 3:08 AM
44 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempereMar 1, 2021, 9:51 PM
13 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Tap Water and Filtration

manaterraMar 2, 2021, 3:45 AM
15 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Some re­cent in­ter­views with AI/​math lu­mi­nar­ies.

fowlertmMar 4, 2021, 1:26 AM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Semitech­ni­cal In­tro­duc­tory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 4, 2021, 5:27 PM
127 points
34 comments54 min readLW link

Why Selec­tive Breed­ing is a Bad Way to do Ge­netic Engineering

GeneSmithMar 5, 2021, 2:30 AM
9 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What (fea­si­ble) aug­mented senses would be use­ful or in­ter­est­ing?

AprilSRMar 6, 2021, 4:28 AM
8 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

The av­er­age North Korean mathematician

MalmesburyMar 7, 2021, 5:28 PM
65 points
19 comments8 min readLW link
(www.telescopic-turnip.net)

Teach­ing to Compromise

Martin SustrikMar 7, 2021, 1:57 PM
15 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Book Notes: Scal­ing, Why is An­i­mal Size so Im­por­tant?

ketchupduckMar 7, 2021, 8:16 PM
19 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

[Lec­ture Club] Awak­en­ing from the Mean­ing Crisis

VaniverMar 8, 2021, 3:22 PM
69 points
186 comments2 min readLW link

What I’d change about differ­ent philos­o­phy fields

Rob BensingerMar 8, 2021, 6:25 PM
56 points
52 comments4 min readLW link

Will Mar­tian G be enough to make healthy baseline ba­bies?

Randomized, ControlledMar 9, 2021, 3:30 AM
4 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci III Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplicMar 8, 2021, 11:01 PM
14 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] The Con­se­quences of Rad­i­cal Reform

lsusrMar 9, 2021, 11:05 PM
36 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Defla­tion­ism isn’t the solu­tion to philos­o­phy’s woes

Rob BensingerMar 10, 2021, 12:20 AM
62 points
45 comments8 min readLW link

Quaran­tine variety

KatjaGraceMar 10, 2021, 8:40 AM
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

An­i­mal faces

KatjaGraceMar 11, 2021, 8:50 AM
45 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

[Question] Ri­gor­ous poli­ti­cal sci­ence?

abramdemskiMar 12, 2021, 3:30 PM
23 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­iz­ing POWER to multi-agent games

Mar 22, 2021, 2:41 AM
52 points
17 comments7 min readLW link

Fe­bru­ary 2021 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwernMar 13, 2021, 2:57 PM
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Blue is Arbitrary

lsusrMar 14, 2021, 9:04 AM
59 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

What’s So Bad About Ad-Hoc Math­e­mat­i­cal Defi­ni­tions?

johnswentworthMar 15, 2021, 9:51 PM
168 points
57 comments7 min readLW link

Con­ver­sa­tion Ex­change Statistics

lsusrMar 16, 2021, 8:50 AM
23 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

On At­tempts to Tran­scend our Models of Numbers

Chris_LeongMar 17, 2021, 8:37 AM
9 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

“Ob­jec­tive vs So­cial Real­ity” vs “Si­mu­lacra 1/​3″

RaemonMar 17, 2021, 10:15 PM
27 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Is RL in­volved in sen­sory pro­cess­ing?

Steven ByrnesMar 18, 2021, 1:57 PM
21 points
21 comments5 min readLW link

Acetyl­choline = Learn­ing rate (aka plas­tic­ity)

Steven ByrnesMar 18, 2021, 1:57 PM
32 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Book Club: Soft­ware De­sign for Flexibility

stuhlmuellerMar 18, 2021, 3:42 PM
43 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Why sig­moids are so hard to predict

Stuart_ArmstrongMar 18, 2021, 6:21 PM
48 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Chaos In­duces Abstractions

johnswentworthMar 18, 2021, 8:08 PM
88 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

Jean Mon­net: The Guerilla Bureaucrat

Martin SustrikMar 20, 2021, 10:37 AM
167 points
23 comments18 min readLW link

“Med­i­ta­tion for skep­tics” – a re­view of two books, and some thoughts

SherrinfordMar 20, 2021, 11:35 PM
16 points
4 comments12 min readLW link

Trust sta­tus sigmoidally

DirectedEvolutionMar 20, 2021, 7:50 PM
15 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Fish­e­rian Ru­n­away as a de­ci­sion-the­o­retic problem

BunthutMar 20, 2021, 4:34 PM
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

A dash­board for progress

jasoncrawfordMar 21, 2021, 3:51 AM
24 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Mov­ing Data Around is Slow

SatvikBeriMar 22, 2021, 2:36 AM
34 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

My re­search methodology

paulfchristianoMar 22, 2021, 9:20 PM
148 points
36 comments16 min readLW link
(ai-alignment.com)

Thirty-three ran­domly se­lected bioethics papers

Rob BensingerMar 22, 2021, 9:38 PM
107 points
45 comments50 min readLW link

The dan­ger of er­ror descriptions

gistyaMar 25, 2021, 8:05 PM
−1 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Com­mu­ni­ca­tion Re­quires Com­mon In­ter­ests or Differ­en­tial Sig­nal Costs

Zack_M_DavisMar 26, 2021, 6:41 AM
31 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Core Path­ways of Aging

johnswentworthMar 28, 2021, 12:31 AM
245 points
116 comments22 min readLW link1 review

The (not so) para­dox­i­cal asym­me­try be­tween po­si­tion and momentum

Erik JennerMar 28, 2021, 1:31 PM
21 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

In­framea­sures and Do­main Theory

DiffractorMar 28, 2021, 9:19 AM
27 points
3 comments33 min readLW link

In­fra-Do­main Proofs 2

DiffractorMar 28, 2021, 9:15 AM
13 points
0 comments21 min readLW link

In­fra-Do­main proofs 1

DiffractorMar 28, 2021, 9:16 AM
13 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

Bureau­cracy is a world of magic

dominicqMar 29, 2021, 12:41 PM
68 points
31 comments3 min readLW link

Sys­tem­atiz­ing Epistemics: Prin­ci­ples for Re­solv­ing Forecasts

DavidmanheimMar 29, 2021, 8:46 PM
33 points
8 comments11 min readLW link

Pro­gres­sive High­light­ing: Pick­ing What To Make Into Flashcards

DirectedEvolutionMar 29, 2021, 10:57 PM
50 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Ju­lia Galef and Matt Ygle­sias on bioethics and “ethics ex­per­tise”

Rob BensingerMar 30, 2021, 3:06 AM
45 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] TAI?

Logan ZoellnerMar 30, 2021, 12:41 PM
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

A com­mand-line gram­mar of graphics

philhMar 30, 2021, 8:30 PM
20 points
10 comments3 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Spec­u­la­tions Con­cern­ing the First Free-ish Pre­dic­tion Market

mike_hawkeMar 31, 2021, 3:20 AM
29 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Could billions spa­cially dis­con­nected “Boltz­mann neu­rons” give rise to con­scious­ness?

Szymon KucharskiMar 31, 2021, 7:58 PM
5 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

What Do We Know About The Con­scious­ness, Any­way?

SurvivalBiasMar 31, 2021, 11:30 PM
12 points
49 comments24 min readLW link

Bridg­ing Two Eso­teric 4-Value Log­ics Us­ing Quan­tum Physics: An­swered Mo­dal Logic vs Catuṣkoṭi

Sven NilsenApr 1, 2021, 12:34 AM
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempereApr 1, 2021, 5:12 PM
23 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

How Crypto Crosses the Moat

adaminoueApr 1, 2021, 3:26 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.inoue.today)

The in­no­cent gene

Joe CarlsmithApr 5, 2021, 3:31 AM
38 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

His­tor­i­cal Ex­am­ples of Op­po­si­tion to Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress

chwApr 5, 2021, 9:26 PM
18 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

I’m from a par­allel Earth with much higher co­or­di­na­tion: AMA

Apr 5, 2021, 10:09 PM
140 points
25 comments61 min readLW link

An In­tro­duc­tion to A Crack­pot Physics

ACrackedPotApr 5, 2021, 11:59 PM
−4 points
5 comments15 min readLW link

Test­ing The Nat­u­ral Ab­strac­tion Hy­poth­e­sis: Pro­ject Intro

johnswentworthApr 6, 2021, 9:24 PM
145 points
34 comments6 min readLW link

2020 pre­dic­tions—Poli­tics, Econ, Tech

BuckyApr 7, 2021, 2:10 PM
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Com­pound­ing In­cum­bent Advantage

adaminoueApr 7, 2021, 1:40 PM
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.inoue.today)

In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Statis­ti­cal Inference

Rafael HarthApr 8, 2021, 5:49 PM
7 points
0 comments18 min readLW link

In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Probability

Rafael HarthApr 8, 2021, 5:48 PM
7 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

High­lights from The Au­to­bi­og­ra­phy of An­drew Carnegie

jasoncrawfordApr 8, 2021, 10:03 PM
88 points
7 comments19 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A Brief Re­view of Cur­rent and Near-Fu­ture Meth­ods of Ge­netic Engineering

GeneSmithApr 10, 2021, 7:16 PM
71 points
33 comments15 min readLW link

On Falsify­ing the Si­mu­la­tion Hy­poth­e­sis (or Em­brac­ing its Pre­dic­tions)

lorepieriApr 12, 2021, 12:12 AM
8 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

The Case for Ex­treme Vac­cine Effectiveness

RubyApr 13, 2021, 9:08 PM
142 points
38 comments23 min readLW link

Placebo effect re­port: chi­ro­prac­tic adjustment

supposedlyfunApr 15, 2021, 2:50 AM
15 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

The Vari­a­tional Char­ac­ter­i­za­tion of Expectation

Past AccountApr 16, 2021, 12:12 AM
3 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Most Analo­gies Are Wrong

J BostockApr 16, 2021, 7:53 PM
8 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

All is fair in love and war, on Zero-sum games in life

RatiosApr 17, 2021, 2:11 AM
−6 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

Book re­view and policy dis­cus­sion: di­ver­sity and complexity

victorsintnicolaasApr 17, 2021, 11:36 AM
11 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Types of generalism

Nora_AmmannApr 20, 2021, 8:22 AM
24 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Hard vs Soft in fields as at­ti­tudes to­wards model collision

J BostockApr 20, 2021, 6:57 PM
13 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Thiel on se­crets and indefiniteness

Rob BensingerApr 20, 2021, 9:59 PM
57 points
7 comments9 min readLW link

A Crack­pot Physics: Time, Spe­cial Rel­a­tivity, and Why Bother?

ACrackedPotApr 21, 2021, 8:17 PM
−3 points
5 comments12 min readLW link

Löb’s the­o­rem sim­ply shows that Peano ar­ith­metic can­not prove its own soundness

Adrià Garriga-alonsoApr 22, 2021, 9:17 AM
3 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

The Fall of Rome: Why It’s Rele­vant, And Why We’re Mistaken

LukeOnlineApr 23, 2021, 12:15 PM
38 points
33 comments3 min readLW link

The Fall of Rome, II: En­ergy Prob­lems?

LukeOnlineApr 23, 2021, 5:58 PM
29 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

How to Play a Sup­port Role in Re­search Conversations

johnswentworthApr 23, 2021, 8:57 PM
91 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Paper re­view: A Cryp­to­graphic Solu­tion to a Game The­o­retic Problem

victorsintnicolaasApr 24, 2021, 11:54 AM
23 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

The Fall of Rome, III: Progress Did Not Exist

LukeOnlineApr 25, 2021, 5:54 AM
29 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] For mRNA vac­cines, is (short-term) effi­cacy re­ally higher af­ter the sec­ond dose?

Sam MarksApr 25, 2021, 8:21 PM
27 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a good soft­ware solu­tion for math­e­mat­i­cal ques­tions?

ChristianKlApr 25, 2021, 6:03 PM
9 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Would robots care about Mean­ing and Re­lat­ing?

RaemonApr 25, 2021, 9:17 PM
29 points
18 comments7 min readLW link

Be­ware over-use of the agent model

Alex FlintApr 25, 2021, 10:19 PM
28 points
10 comments5 min readLW link1 review

Bayesian and Fre­quen­tists Ap­proaches to Statis­ti­cal Analysis

Christopher ClarkApr 26, 2021, 12:18 AM
4 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

ZviApr 27, 2021, 12:40 AM
42 points
39 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Modern Mone­tary The­ory for Dummies

theflowerpotApr 27, 2021, 1:11 PM
7 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices

SimonMApr 27, 2021, 2:03 PM
51 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 pre­dic­tions: cal­ibra­tion and up­dat­ing exercise

Rob BensingerApr 29, 2021, 7:15 PM
19 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

On Ch­ester­ton’s Fence

Martin SustrikApr 29, 2021, 2:56 PM
1 point
9 comments2 min readLW link

Notes on Robert McIn­tyre’s Brain Preser­va­tion Talk at the Long Now Foundation

JohnGreerApr 28, 2021, 8:47 PM
7 points
3 comments13 min readLW link

Death by Red Tape

abramdemskiMay 1, 2021, 6:03 PM
38 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempereMay 1, 2021, 4:07 PM
9 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Teach­ing Para­dox, Europa Univer­alis IV, Part I: State of Play

adamShimiMay 2, 2021, 9:02 AM
17 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(acoup.blog)

Thoughts on Re-read­ing Brave New World

chemslugMay 3, 2021, 3:28 AM
10 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Alzheimer’s, Hunt­ing­ton’s and Mi­to­chon­dria Part 1: Turnover Rates

J BostockMay 3, 2021, 2:46 PM
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Alzheimer’s, Hunt­ing­ton’s and Mi­to­chon­dria Part 3: Pre­dic­tions and Retrospective

J BostockMay 3, 2021, 2:47 PM
10 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What do the re­ported lev­els of pro­tec­tion offered by var­i­ous vac­cines mean?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)May 4, 2021, 10:06 PM
10 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Why quan­ti­ta­tive fi­nance is so hard

lsusrMay 7, 2021, 7:29 PM
41 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Mi­graine hal­lu­ci­na­tions, phe­nomenol­ogy, and cognition

Richard_KennawayMay 8, 2021, 3:56 PM
36 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Biolog­i­cal Holism: A New Paradigm?

WaddingtonMay 9, 2021, 10:42 PM
3 points
9 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] What is the best chem­istry text­book?

Maxwell PetersonMay 11, 2021, 2:39 AM
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Mas­sachusetts Lyme Reporting

jefftkMay 10, 2021, 10:40 PM
27 points
12 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

A Wiki for Questions

weathersystemsMay 11, 2021, 2:31 AM
17 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

Vac­cine Rol­lout as Wheeled-Lug­gage Problem

DirectedEvolutionMay 13, 2021, 9:04 PM
28 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What will 2040 prob­a­bly look like as­sum­ing no sin­gu­lar­ity?

Daniel KokotajloMay 16, 2021, 10:10 PM
116 points
87 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Christen­son’s “Episte­mol­ogy of Disagree­ment: The Good News”

Aidan_KieransMay 16, 2021, 3:58 AM
1 point
0 comments5 min readLW link

Hy­poth­e­sis Space Entropy

lsusrMay 14, 2021, 7:21 AM
17 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Love on Carte­sian Planes

bksilv3rMay 17, 2021, 7:19 PM
36 points
6 comments23 min readLW link

Func­tional Trade-offs

weathersystemsMay 19, 2021, 1:06 AM
5 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

There is no No Evidence

MalcolmOceanMay 19, 2021, 2:44 AM
47 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Re: Fierce Nerds

lsusrMay 19, 2021, 8:18 PM
34 points
18 comments5 min readLW link
(paulgraham.com)

[Question] Is Ray Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tion ac­cu­racy still be­ing tracked?

CraigMichaelMay 20, 2021, 12:06 AM
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Re­sponse to “What does the uni­ver­sal prior ac­tu­ally look like?”

michaelcohenMay 20, 2021, 4:12 PM
36 points
34 comments18 min readLW link

Did the In­dus­trial Revolu­tion de­crease costs or in­crease qual­ity?

jasoncrawfordMay 20, 2021, 9:10 PM
71 points
5 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The Vari­a­tional Char­ac­ter­i­za­tion of KL-Diver­gence, Er­ror Catas­tro­phes, and Generalization

Past AccountMay 20, 2021, 8:57 PM
38 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Knowl­edge is not just map/​ter­ri­tory resemblance

Alex FlintMay 25, 2021, 5:58 PM
28 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is (“Chem­i­cal Im­bal­ance” ⇒ De­pres­sion) an ex­am­ple of fake causal­ity?

const LIZARDMANMay 26, 2021, 10:55 PM
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] What war be­tween the USA and China would look like in 2050

lsusrMay 26, 2021, 6:24 AM
73 points
54 comments8 min readLW link

Freak­ing blockchains: How do they work?

norswapMay 27, 2021, 4:22 PM
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(norswap.com)

A Re­view and Sum­mary of the Land­mark Forum

reviewerMay 27, 2021, 6:22 PM
50 points
10 comments14 min readLW link

99% shorter

philhMay 27, 2021, 7:50 PM
16 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

The Ho­muncu­lus Problem

abramdemskiMay 27, 2021, 8:25 PM
41 points
38 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Aphantasia

CrackatookMay 28, 2021, 1:55 AM
7 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

(Try­ing To) Study Text­books Effec­tively: A Year of Experimentation

DirectedEvolutionMay 28, 2021, 5:51 AM
63 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

Two Defi­ni­tions of Generalization

ozziegooenMay 29, 2021, 4:20 AM
33 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Elec­tric heat pumps (Mini-Splits) vs Nat­u­ral gas boilers

Steven ByrnesMay 30, 2021, 3:51 PM
14 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

How count­ing neu­trons ex­plains nu­clear waste

jasoncrawfordMay 30, 2021, 6:10 PM
92 points
11 comments14 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Po­modoros worked dur­ing a day: an anal­y­sis of Alex’s data

Derek M. JonesMay 31, 2021, 1:27 PM
5 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(shape-of-code.coding-guidelines.com)

Paper Re­view: Math­e­mat­i­cal Truth

Alex HollowMay 30, 2021, 8:25 PM
5 points
14 comments3 min readLW link
(alexhollow.wordpress.com)

Mega Links Post for Mar-Apr-May 2021

ikeMay 31, 2021, 3:47 AM
13 points
0 comments12 min readLW link
(misinfounderload.substack.com)

Anatomy, dis­eases and ag­ing damage

ChristianKlMay 31, 2021, 2:01 PM
24 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Net­works of Trust vs Markets

Henrik KarlssonMay 31, 2021, 7:59 PM
101 points
22 comments5 min readLW link

Power dy­nam­ics as a blind spot or blurry spot in our col­lec­tive world-mod­el­ing, es­pe­cially around AI

Andrew_CritchJun 1, 2021, 6:45 PM
176 points
26 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2021

NunoSempereJun 1, 2021, 3:51 PM
11 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

April 2021 Gw­ern.net newsletter

gwernJun 3, 2021, 3:13 PM
20 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

SIA is ba­si­cally just Bayesian up­dat­ing on existence

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 4, 2021, 1:17 PM
25 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Al­co­hol, health, and the ruth­less logic of the Asian flush

dynomightJun 4, 2021, 6:14 PM
146 points
44 comments1 min readLW link
(dynomight.net)

The un­der­ly­ing model of a morphism

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 4, 2021, 10:29 PM
10 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Hy­poth­e­sis: lab mice have more ac­tive trans­posons then wild mice

ChristianKlJun 5, 2021, 12:36 PM
19 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Restora­tion of en­ergy home­osta­sis by SIRT6 ex­tends healthy lifespan

DirectedEvolutionJun 5, 2021, 9:11 PM
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

An­thropic Para­doxes and Self Refer­ence

dadadarrenJun 6, 2021, 2:52 AM
6 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Often, en­e­mies re­ally are in­nately evil.

Andrew VlahosJun 7, 2021, 6:42 AM
20 points
56 comments5 min readLW link

Re­vis­it­ing shared experiences

bksilv3rJun 7, 2021, 11:12 AM
3 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Big pic­ture of pha­sic dopamine

Steven ByrnesJun 8, 2021, 1:07 PM
59 points
18 comments36 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] Blueprint for Revolution

lsusrJun 7, 2021, 6:14 PM
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Sup­ple­ment to “Big pic­ture of pha­sic dopamine”

Steven ByrnesJun 8, 2021, 1:08 PM
13 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] What are the gears of gluten sen­si­tivity?

Gordon Seidoh WorleyJun 8, 2021, 4:42 PM
20 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Will out­lets like the NYT be cap­tured by Chi­nese in­fluence and if so, when?

ChristianKlJun 8, 2021, 4:31 PM
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Against intelligence

George3d6Jun 8, 2021, 1:03 PM
12 points
17 comments10 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

The Gen­er­al­ized Product Rule

aysajanJun 8, 2021, 4:39 PM
34 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

...and then some­times, for no clear rea­son, they in­nately be­come good.

Andrew VlahosJun 9, 2021, 3:07 AM
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Other Con­struc­tions of Gravity

michaelcohenJun 9, 2021, 8:06 PM
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Knowl­edge is not just mu­tual information

Alex FlintJun 10, 2021, 1:01 AM
27 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] ML is now au­tomat­ing parts of chip R&D. How big a deal is this?

Daniel KokotajloJun 10, 2021, 9:51 AM
45 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

May 2021 Gw­ern.net newsletter

gwernJun 11, 2021, 2:13 PM
31 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] Does any­one have any Data Sid­e­quests?

abstractapplicJun 11, 2021, 11:40 PM
18 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Self-study ideas for micro-pro­jects in “ab­stract” sub­jects?

DirectedEvolutionJun 11, 2021, 7:09 PM
13 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

The Cult Deficit: Anal­y­sis and Speculation

rogersbaconJun 13, 2021, 5:33 AM
11 points
11 comments13 min readLW link

Shall we count the liv­ing or the dead?

Anders_HJun 14, 2021, 12:38 AM
30 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Coron­avirus crash vs history

bfinnJun 14, 2021, 10:55 AM
39 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Dooms­day, Sam­pling As­sump­tions, and Bayes

Yair HalberstadtJun 14, 2021, 12:41 PM
6 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

Avoid News, Part 2: What the Stock Mar­ket Taught Me about News

PeterMcCluskeyJun 14, 2021, 8:54 PM
42 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Are there any ex­ist­ing open source hu­man evolu­tion mod­els?

ChristianKlJun 14, 2021, 5:28 PM
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Break­down of AI Chip Companies

Tomás B.Jun 14, 2021, 7:25 PM
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(geohot.github.io)

Knowl­edge is not just digi­tal ab­strac­tion layers

Alex FlintJun 15, 2021, 3:49 AM
18 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

(Another) Us­ing a Me­mory Palace to Me­morize a Textbook

Spencer_GreenJun 14, 2021, 10:12 PM
13 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Any­one have ex­pe­rience with metabolic net­work mod­el­ling that would be will­ing to help me out?

CraigMichaelJun 14, 2021, 10:40 PM
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Can some­one help me un­der­stand the ar­row of time?

Yair HalberstadtJun 15, 2021, 5:26 PM
6 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If in­stead of giv­ing out div­i­dends, pub­lic com­pa­nies bought to­tal mar­ket in­dex funds, which com­pa­nies would be the biggest?

Mati_RoyJun 15, 2021, 5:07 PM
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Un­bundling Hu­mans, or, Un­bundling Hu­man Creation.

Sajith PaiJun 16, 2021, 12:03 AM
10 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Vi­su­al­iz­ing in 5 dimensions

TekhneMakreJun 19, 2021, 6:15 PM
16 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Ques­tions about mul­ti­vi­tam­ins, es­pe­cially manganese

ryan_greenblattJun 19, 2021, 4:09 PM
6 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Four Com­po­nents of Au­dac­ity

lsusrJun 21, 2021, 4:49 AM
24 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

The home­work as­sign­ment in­cen­tives, and why it’s now so extreme

Andrew VlahosJun 22, 2021, 4:19 AM
22 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is there work look­ing at the im­pli­ca­tions of many wor­lds QM for ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Quintin PopeJun 22, 2021, 6:06 AM
−5 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

The Point of Trade

Eliezer YudkowskyJun 22, 2021, 5:56 PM
159 points
78 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Hard­ware for Trans­for­ma­tive AI

MrThinkJun 22, 2021, 6:13 PM
17 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Fre­quent ar­gu­ments about alignment

John SchulmanJun 23, 2021, 12:46 AM
95 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

In­ter­nal In­for­ma­tion Cascades

JenniferRMJun 25, 2021, 4:35 PM
42 points
8 comments10 min readLW link

Cliffnotes to Craft of Re­search parts I, II, and III

QuinnJun 26, 2021, 2:00 PM
7 points
1 comment17 min readLW link

Sam Alt­man and Ezra Klein on the AI Revolution

Zack_M_DavisJun 27, 2021, 4:53 AM
38 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nytimes.com)

The Un­ex­pected Hang­ing Paradox

Chris_LeongJun 27, 2021, 6:17 AM
16 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Try­ing to ap­prox­i­mate Statis­ti­cal Models as Scor­ing Tables

JsevillamolJun 29, 2021, 5:20 PM
18 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

Causes of a Debt Cri­sis—Economic

Connor_FlexmanJul 1, 2021, 10:46 PM
39 points
11 comments8 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2021

NunoSempereJul 1, 2021, 9:35 PM
13 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Con­fu­sions re: Higher-Level Game Theory

DiffractorJul 2, 2021, 3:15 AM
38 points
5 comments9 min readLW link

Mus­ing on the Many Wor­lds Hypothesis

David GrossJul 5, 2021, 7:38 PM
26 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

In-group loy­alty is so­cial cement

David Hugh-JonesJul 6, 2021, 9:57 AM
19 points
10 comments3 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

[Question] Should gov­ern­ment set in­ter­est rates?

yhoisethJul 6, 2021, 1:57 PM
1 point
8 comments1 min readLW link

In­tel­li­gence with­out Consciousness

Andrew VlahosJul 7, 2021, 5:27 AM
13 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Agency and the un­re­li­able au­tonomous car

Alex FlintJul 7, 2021, 2:58 PM
29 points
24 comments10 min readLW link

An­throp­ics in in­finite universes

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 8, 2021, 6:56 AM
12 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

The SIA pop­u­la­tion up­date can be sur­pris­ingly small

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 8, 2021, 10:45 AM
47 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

In­ter­mit­tent Distil­la­tions #4: Semi­con­duc­tors, Eco­nomics, In­tel­li­gence, and Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress.

Mark XuJul 8, 2021, 10:14 PM
81 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

The news at­ten­tion span

damiensnyderJul 9, 2021, 1:44 AM
13 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.damiensnyder.com)

Im­prov­ing cap­i­tal gains taxes

paulfchristianoJul 9, 2021, 5:20 AM
58 points
38 comments3 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Gen­er­al­ised mod­els: im­perfect mor­phisms and in­for­ma­tional entropy

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 9, 2021, 5:35 PM
9 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Order Without Law

philhJul 10, 2021, 9:50 PM
64 points
5 comments49 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Win­ston Churchill, fu­tur­ist and EA

jasoncrawfordJul 12, 2021, 2:07 AM
66 points
11 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Ty­pol­ogy of blog posts that don’t always add any­thing clear and insightful

KatjaGraceJul 13, 2021, 1:40 AM
49 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Ad­di­tive Sum­mary Equation

johnswentworthJul 13, 2021, 6:23 PM
11 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Epony­mous Laws Part 3: Mis­cel­la­neous

rogersbaconJul 13, 2021, 7:56 PM
4 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

CGP Grey on the difficulty of know­ing what’s true [au­dio]

DanielFilanJul 13, 2021, 8:40 PM
23 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.relay.fm)

Imag­i­nary reen­act­ment to heal trauma – how and when does it work?

Kaj_SotalaJul 13, 2021, 10:10 PM
41 points
2 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Essen­tial­ness of Data

jefftkJul 14, 2021, 3:40 AM
15 points
21 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

La­fayette: traf­fic vessels

KatjaGraceJul 15, 2021, 1:00 AM
27 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Gen­er­al­iz­ing Koop­man-Pit­man-Darmois

johnswentworthJul 15, 2021, 10:33 PM
54 points
8 comments11 min readLW link

Un­der­ly­ing model of an im­perfect morphism

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 16, 2021, 1:13 PM
13 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Fix­ing the ar­bi­trari­ness of game depth

cousin_itJul 17, 2021, 12:37 PM
6 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­is­ing Logic Gates

J BostockJul 17, 2021, 5:25 PM
6 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Equiv­a­lent of In­for­ma­tion The­ory but for Com­pu­ta­tion?

J BostockJul 17, 2021, 9:38 AM
5 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are some ex­am­ples from his­tory where a sci­en­tific the­ory pre­dicted a sig­nifi­cant ex­per­i­men­tal ob­ser­va­tion in ad­vance?

InsubJul 17, 2021, 5:39 AM
8 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

A model of de­ci­sion-mak­ing in the brain (the short ver­sion)

Steven ByrnesJul 18, 2021, 2:39 PM
20 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Any tax­onomies of con­scious ex­pe­rience?

JohnDavidBustardJul 18, 2021, 6:28 PM
7 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Book re­view: The Ex­pla­na­tion of Ideology

PeterMcCluskeyJul 20, 2021, 3:42 AM
43 points
10 comments9 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

The Utility Func­tion of a Prepper

Alex HollowJul 21, 2021, 2:26 AM
4 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(alexhollow.wordpress.com)

How is low-la­tency pha­sic dopamine so fast?

Steven ByrnesJul 23, 2021, 5:43 PM
31 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Believ­ing vs understanding

Adam ZernerJul 24, 2021, 3:39 AM
15 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] What are some trig­gers that prompt you to do a Fermi es­ti­mate, or to pull up a spread­sheet and make a sim­ple/​rough quan­ti­ta­tive model?

Eli TyreJul 25, 2021, 6:47 AM
37 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

A Con­tam­i­na­tion The­ory of the Obe­sity Epidemic

Bob BakerJul 25, 2021, 2:39 AM
98 points
45 comments5 min readLW link

Failing safely is the anomaly

Andrew VlahosJul 25, 2021, 4:56 AM
12 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The biolog­i­cal in­tel­li­gence explosion

Rob LucasJul 25, 2021, 1:08 PM
8 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Can I teach my­self sci­en­tific cre­ativity?

DirectedEvolutionJul 25, 2021, 8:15 PM
13 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

When writ­ing trig­gers mem­ory reconsolidation

Adam ZernerJul 25, 2021, 10:10 PM
34 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Neu­ro­science things that con­fuse me right now

Steven ByrnesJul 26, 2021, 9:01 PM
15 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] How to bayesian up­date on mul­ti­ple covid tests?

rchplgJul 29, 2021, 1:15 PM
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Do we have a term for the is­sue with quan­tify­ing policy effect Scott Alexan­der stum­bled on mul­ti­ple times?

yhoisethJul 29, 2021, 8:45 AM
11 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Uncer­tainty can De­fuse Log­i­cal Explosions

J BostockJul 30, 2021, 12:36 PM
11 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion-based-Medicine in­stead of E̵v̵i̵d̵e̵n̵c̵e̵ ̵b̵a̵s̵e̵d̵ ̵M̵e̵d̵i̵c̵i̵n̵e̵ Author­ity-based-Medicine

ChristianKlJul 30, 2021, 10:42 AM
11 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

The World is Con­tin­u­ous, Not Discrete

Anshul JainJul 31, 2021, 2:26 AM
5 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(www.anshuljain.me)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2021

NunoSempereAug 1, 2021, 5:00 PM
21 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Scien­tific Free­dom by Don Braben

willbobagginsAug 4, 2021, 1:38 AM
12 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What psy­chol­ogy stud­ies are most im­por­tant to the ra­tio­nal­ist wor­ld­view?

cogitoprimeAug 4, 2021, 3:53 AM
16 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Should doc­tors be neu­tral?

Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) Aug 4, 2021, 8:37 PM
32 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Traps of For­mal­iza­tion in Deconfusion

adamShimiAug 5, 2021, 10:40 PM
24 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions about the state of crypto in ten years

mike_hawkeAug 8, 2021, 4:18 PM
5 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The Fu­ture: Where are the Colors and the Sports?

rogersbaconAug 8, 2021, 6:55 PM
82 points
38 comments8 min readLW link

Against “blank­faces”

philhAug 8, 2021, 11:00 PM
102 points
12 comments4 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

[Question] Ques­tion about Test-sets and Bayesian ma­chine learn­ing

Haziq MuhammadAug 9, 2021, 5:16 PM
2 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

The Re­duc­tion­ist Trap

J BostockAug 9, 2021, 5:00 PM
11 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

A new defi­ni­tion of “op­ti­mizer”

ChantielAug 9, 2021, 1:42 PM
5 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Dopamine-su­per­vised learn­ing in mam­mals & fruit flies

Steven ByrnesAug 10, 2021, 4:13 PM
16 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

The two-headed bacterium

MalmesburyAug 10, 2021, 3:28 PM
65 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(www.telescopic-turnip.net)

A Re­sponse to A Con­tam­i­na­tion The­ory of the Obe­sity Epidemic

skot523Aug 12, 2021, 4:23 AM
68 points
35 comments10 min readLW link
(goodtosell.substack.com)

Com­bin­ing the best of Ge­or­gian and Har­berger taxes

Yair HalberstadtAug 12, 2021, 5:55 AM
19 points
21 comments10 min readLW link

A deeper look at dox­epin and the FDA

DirectedEvolutionAug 13, 2021, 6:59 PM
22 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Coase’s “Na­ture of the Firm” on Polyamory

1a3ornAug 13, 2021, 1:15 PM
92 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

The halt­ing prob­lem is overstated

Yair HalberstadtAug 16, 2021, 5:26 AM
15 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Grav­ity Turn

alkjashAug 16, 2021, 7:20 PM
209 points
20 comments5 min readLW link
(radimentary.wordpress.com)

All Metafore­cast COVID predictions

NunoSempereAug 16, 2021, 6:30 PM
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Si­mul­ta­neous Re­dun­dant Research

egAug 17, 2021, 12:17 PM
4 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

When Pro­gram­mers Don’t Un­der­stand Code, Don’t Blame The User

Adam ZernerAug 18, 2021, 7:59 PM
60 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] De­bate over Cox’s the­o­rem

Haziq MuhammadAug 18, 2021, 4:51 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is Akaike statis­tics?

Haziq MuhammadAug 18, 2021, 4:49 AM
4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­plor­ing the Land­scape of Scien­tific Minds (Let my Peo­ple Go)

rogersbaconAug 19, 2021, 4:21 PM
34 points
21 comments12 min readLW link

The Death of Be­hav­ioral Economics

habrykaAug 22, 2021, 10:39 PM
138 points
23 comments1 min readLW link1 review
(www.thebehavioralscientist.com)

Ran­dal Koene on brain un­der­stand­ing be­fore whole brain emulation

Steven ByrnesAug 23, 2021, 8:59 PM
36 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

We need a new philos­o­phy of progress

jasoncrawfordAug 23, 2021, 9:31 PM
64 points
45 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

18 pos­si­ble mean­ings of “I Like Red”

ozziegooenAug 23, 2021, 11:25 PM
29 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Yet More Mo­dal Combat

Donald HobsonAug 24, 2021, 10:32 AM
10 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Sig­nal­ing Vir­tu­ous Vic­tim­hood as Indi­ca­tors of Dark Triad Personalities

Ben SmithAug 26, 2021, 7:18 PM
18 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(mlpol.net)

Amy­loid Plaques: Chem­i­cal Streetlight, Med­i­cal Goodhart

J BostockAug 26, 2021, 9:25 PM
17 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Gödel’s Le­gacy: A game with­out end

HazardJun 28, 2020, 6:50 PM
39 points
10 comments12 min readLW link

Cog­ni­tive sci­en­tist Joel Chan on meta­science, scal­ing and au­tomat­ing in­no­va­tion, col­lec­tive in­tel­li­gence, and tools for thought.

fowlertmAug 27, 2021, 4:33 PM
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

How To Write Quickly While Main­tain­ing Epistemic Rigor

johnswentworthAug 28, 2021, 5:52 PM
368 points
35 comments4 min readLW link2 reviews

The Solow-Swan model of eco­nomic growth

Matthew BarnettAug 29, 2021, 6:55 PM
30 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

A Small Vacation

DanBAug 29, 2021, 7:55 PM
44 points
24 comments8 min readLW link

An­ti­dotes to Num­ber Numbness

CollisteruAug 30, 2021, 8:17 PM
12 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

World War Zero

lsusrAug 31, 2021, 7:22 AM
27 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

The Tele­phone The­o­rem: In­for­ma­tion At A Dis­tance Is Me­di­ated By Deter­minis­tic Constraints

johnswentworthAug 31, 2021, 4:50 PM
86 points
21 comments9 min readLW link

A Lay­man’s Guide to Re­cre­ational Math­e­mat­ics Videos

Sam EnrightAug 31, 2021, 11:11 PM
22 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Finite Fac­tored Sets: Applications

Scott GarrabrantAug 31, 2021, 9:19 PM
27 points
1 comment10 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2021

NunoSempereSep 1, 2021, 5:01 PM
20 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Blind Spots in Science and Culture

rogersbaconSep 2, 2021, 12:02 AM
7 points
3 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] Growth of pre­dic­tion mar­kets over time?

Daniel KokotajloSep 2, 2021, 1:43 PM
16 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Lak­shmi’s Magic Rope: An In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Ra­manu­jan Primes

DirectedEvolutionSep 2, 2021, 4:36 PM
16 points
21 comments11 min readLW link

Ad­den­dum to “Amy­loid Plaques: Med­i­cal Good­hart, Chem­i­cal Streetlight”

J BostockSep 2, 2021, 5:42 PM
10 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] Fram­ing Practicum: Selec­tion Incentive

aysajanSep 2, 2021, 8:26 PM
12 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Book re­view: Shut Out

PeterMcCluskeySep 3, 2021, 7:07 PM
33 points
8 comments9 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Are there any web­sites that col­late use­ful psy­cholog­i­cal study re­sults?

Phoenix EliotSep 5, 2021, 9:45 PM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Kids Learn by Copying

lsusrSep 5, 2021, 11:09 PM
32 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

A Primer on the Sym­me­try The­ory of Valence

Michael Edward JohnsonSep 6, 2021, 11:39 AM
20 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

[Link post] When pool­ing fore­casts, use the ge­o­met­ric mean of odds

JsevillamolSep 6, 2021, 6:45 AM
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

I read “White Frag­ility” so you don’t have to (but maybe you should)

David GrossSep 6, 2021, 10:31 PM
34 points
105 comments7 min readLW link

How to Find a Problem

J BostockSep 8, 2021, 8:05 PM
8 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

A Tax­on­omy of Research

J BostockSep 8, 2021, 7:30 PM
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Digi­tal Peo­ple FAQ

HoldenKarnofskySep 13, 2021, 3:24 PM
28 points
14 comments16 min readLW link

Digi­tal Peo­ple Would Be An Even Big­ger Deal

HoldenKarnofskySep 13, 2021, 3:23 PM
34 points
14 comments13 min readLW link

Film Study for Research

jsteinhardtSep 14, 2021, 6:53 PM
50 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Or­a­cle pre­dic­tions don’t ap­ply to non-ex­is­tent worlds

Chris_LeongSep 15, 2021, 9:44 AM
10 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

Op­ti­miz­ing Mul­ti­ple Im­perfect Filters

johnswentworthSep 15, 2021, 10:57 PM
49 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

“Who’s In Charge? Free Will and the Science of the Brain”

David GrossSep 16, 2021, 2:38 AM
10 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Jit­ters No Ev­i­dence of Stu­pidity in RL

1a3ornSep 16, 2021, 10:43 PM
82 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

How feel­ing more se­cure feels differ­ent than I expected

Kaj_SotalaSep 17, 2021, 9:20 AM
75 points
15 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Re­search speedruns

drossbucketSep 17, 2021, 6:54 AM
40 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Born Again: Dis­con­nected Psy­chol­ogy, Mar­tian Science, and the Order of the Phoenix

rogersbaconSep 17, 2021, 2:23 PM
4 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

Truth + Rea­son = The True Reli­gion?

David GrossSep 17, 2021, 10:14 PM
34 points
2 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] What is the ev­i­dence on the Church-Tur­ing Th­e­sis?

MorpheusSep 19, 2021, 11:34 AM
15 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Where do your eyes go?

alkjashSep 19, 2021, 10:43 PM
238 points
24 comments14 min readLW link
(radimentary.wordpress.com)

David Wolpert on Knowledge

Alex FlintSep 21, 2021, 1:54 AM
33 points
3 comments13 min readLW link

The Effec­tive­ness Of Masks is Limited

Mike HarrisSep 21, 2021, 5:03 PM
24 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Three enig­mas at the heart of our reasoning

Alex FlintSep 21, 2021, 4:52 PM
56 points
68 comments9 min readLW link1 review

Ac­ci­den­tal Optimizers

aysajanSep 22, 2021, 1:27 PM
7 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Robin Han­son’s Grabby Aliens model ex­plained—part 1

WriterSep 22, 2021, 6:51 PM
72 points
34 comments8 min readLW link1 review
(youtu.be)

Shared Frames Are Cap­i­tal In­vest­ments in Coordination

johnswentworthSep 23, 2021, 11:24 PM
84 points
3 comments14 min readLW link

Re­view: Mar­tyr Made Podcast

ElizabethSep 23, 2021, 8:10 PM
20 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Fore­cast­ing Trans­for­ma­tive AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?

HoldenKarnofskySep 24, 2021, 12:46 AM
17 points
17 comments9 min readLW link

How’s it go­ing with the Univer­sal Cul­tural Takeover? Part I

David Hugh-JonesSep 23, 2021, 7:07 PM
22 points
13 comments8 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Carte­sian Frames and Fac­tored Sets on ArXiv

Scott GarrabrantSep 24, 2021, 4:58 AM
37 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­pla­na­tions as Hard to Vary Assertions

AlexanderSep 24, 2021, 11:33 AM
17 points
24 comments8 min readLW link

How’s it go­ing with the Univer­sal Cul­tural Takeover? Part II

David Hugh-JonesSep 24, 2021, 9:37 AM
22 points
1 comment4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

My Hyper­mind Aris­ing In­tel­li­gence Fore­casts and Reflections

eliflandSep 26, 2021, 8:47 PM
23 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

The Para­dox of Ex­pert Opinion

EmrikSep 26, 2021, 9:39 PM
12 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Does any­one have the refer­ence to the “re­searchers should be spend­ing more time on liter­a­ture re­views” study?

tb_throwawaySep 26, 2021, 9:47 PM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Con­fused Chemist’s Re­view of AlphaFold 2

J BostockSep 27, 2021, 11:10 AM
23 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

The In­tense World The­ory of Autism

Steven ByrnesSep 27, 2021, 1:23 PM
89 points
29 comments14 min readLW link

Reach­a­bil­ity De­bates (Are Often In­visi­ble)

J BostockSep 27, 2021, 10:05 PM
17 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Be­ware Su­perfi­cial Plausibility

CelerSep 28, 2021, 3:58 AM
32 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Selec­tion The­o­rems: A Pro­gram For Un­der­stand­ing Agents

johnswentworthSep 28, 2021, 5:03 AM
103 points
23 comments6 min readLW link

Take­off Speeds and Discontinuities

Sep 30, 2021, 1:50 PM
62 points
1 comment15 min readLW link

[Book re­view] Gödel, Escher, Bach: an in-depth explainer

Sam MarksSep 29, 2021, 7:03 PM
89 points
20 comments23 min readLW link

[Book re­view] Who we are and how we got here

mukashiSep 30, 2021, 4:26 AM
14 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Some Ex­ist­ing Selec­tion Theorems

johnswentworthSep 30, 2021, 4:13 PM
48 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How can one train philo­soph­i­cal skill?

abramdemskiSep 30, 2021, 2:56 PM
30 points
47 comments1 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 1: Learn­ing from the fact that you exist

Joe CarlsmithOct 1, 2021, 5:43 AM
41 points
17 comments16 min readLW link

How does fore­cast quan­tity im­pact fore­cast qual­ity on Me­tac­u­lus?

CharlesDOct 1, 2021, 7:09 PM
8 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

What Selec­tion The­o­rems Do We Ex­pect/​Want?

johnswentworthOct 1, 2021, 4:03 PM
57 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2021.

NunoSempereOct 1, 2021, 5:06 PM
13 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Con­tra Paul Chris­ti­ano on Sex

George3d6Oct 1, 2021, 11:17 AM
22 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

SIA > SSA, part 2: Telekine­sis, refer­ence classes, and other scandals

Joe CarlsmithOct 1, 2021, 5:49 AM
19 points
1 comment35 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 3: An aside on bet­ting in anthropics

Joe CarlsmithOct 1, 2021, 5:52 AM
11 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 4: In defense of the pre­sump­tu­ous philosopher

Joe CarlsmithOct 1, 2021, 5:59 AM
13 points
20 comments22 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: No Progress on C. el­gans After 10 Years

niconiconiOct 1, 2021, 9:44 PM
185 points
77 comments5 min readLW link

The Si­mu­la­tion Hy­poth­e­sis Un­der­cuts the SIA/​Great Filter Dooms­day Argument

Oct 1, 2021, 10:23 PM
45 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

[linkpost] Vi­talik Bu­terin on Nathan Sch­nei­der on the limits of cryp­toe­co­nomics

mike_hawkeOct 2, 2021, 7:11 PM
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(vitalik.ca)

[Book Re­view] Evolu­tion of Sex

Alex HollowOct 3, 2021, 6:54 PM
36 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(alexhollow.wordpress.com)

How to build a mind—neu­ro­science edition

JanOct 3, 2021, 9:45 PM
17 points
7 comments12 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

[Book Re­view] “I Con­tain Mul­ti­tudes” by Ed Yong

J BostockOct 4, 2021, 7:29 PM
10 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

What can we learn from tra­di­tional so­cieties?

mukashiOct 5, 2021, 12:24 AM
18 points
11 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] How do bounded util­ity func­tions work if you are un­cer­tain how close to the bound your util­ity is?

GhatanathoahOct 6, 2021, 9:31 PM
7 points
26 comments2 min readLW link

What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?

johnswentworthOct 7, 2021, 9:58 PM
195 points
59 comments8 min readLW link

Book sum­mary: Selfish Rea­sons to Have More Kids

Optimization ProcessOct 7, 2021, 8:19 PM
19 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Per­cep­tual dex­ter­ity: a case study

Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)Oct 7, 2021, 10:25 PM
63 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

(Book Re­view) The Ge­netic Lot­tery: Why DNA Mat­ters for So­cial Equality

XylitolOct 7, 2021, 10:21 PM
25 points
11 comments17 min readLW link

“Eat­ing Dirt Benefits Kids” is Ba­si­cally Made Up

ElizabethOct 8, 2021, 8:30 AM
65 points
13 comments3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Book Re­view: Why Every­one (Else) Is a Hypocrite

PeterMcCluskeyOct 9, 2021, 3:31 AM
26 points
7 comments3 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Ap­pren­tice­ship Online

Henrik KarlssonOct 9, 2021, 1:50 PM
48 points
19 comments11 min readLW link
(escapingflatland.substack.com)

Book Re­view: Churchill and Orwell

Sammy MartinOct 9, 2021, 7:01 PM
41 points
5 comments11 min readLW link

Cup-Stack­ing Skills (or, Reflex­ive In­vol­un­tary Men­tal Mo­tions)

Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)Oct 11, 2021, 7:16 AM
104 points
35 comments7 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Free Will

Ape in the coatOct 11, 2021, 6:41 PM
28 points
22 comments8 min readLW link

EDT with up­dat­ing dou­ble counts

paulfchristianoOct 12, 2021, 4:40 AM
46 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Book Re­view: Philo­soph­i­cal In­ves­ti­ga­tions by Wittgenstein

Chris_LeongOct 12, 2021, 8:14 PM
30 points
12 comments32 min readLW link

Notes from the book ‘First Three Minutes’ by Steven Weinberg

invertedpassionOct 13, 2021, 9:06 AM
6 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Books Re­view: “Sapi­ens”, “Homo Deus” and “21 Les­sons For The 21st Cen­tury”, by Yu­val Noah Harari

Luca ParodiOct 13, 2021, 4:21 PM
14 points
2 comments16 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

dmanningcoeOct 13, 2021, 4:22 PM
28 points
3 comments17 min readLW link

Book Re­view: The End of Average

Vanilla_cabsOct 14, 2021, 1:49 AM
17 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

Book Re­view: De­nial of Death

PatrickDFarleyOct 14, 2021, 4:28 AM
14 points
5 comments37 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness, Free Will and Scien­tific Ob­jec­tivity in Per­spec­tive-Based Reasoning

dadadarrenOct 14, 2021, 6:00 PM
7 points
25 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Book Re­view: A Pat­tern Lan­guage by Christo­pher Alexander

lincolnquirkOct 15, 2021, 1:11 AM
34 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Fram­ing Practicum: Semistable Equilibrium

DirectedEvolutionOct 14, 2021, 11:31 PM
26 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Do you think you are a Boltz­mann brain? If not, why not?

Jack ROct 15, 2021, 6:02 AM
2 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­plain­ing Cap­i­tal­ism Harder

jefftkOct 17, 2021, 2:40 AM
98 points
12 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Ap­plied Math­e­mat­i­cal Logic For The Prac­tic­ing Researcher

JanOct 17, 2021, 8:28 PM
9 points
9 comments6 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

Ap­plied Math­e­mat­i­cal Logic For The Prac­tic­ing Researcher

JanOct 17, 2021, 8:28 PM
9 points
9 comments6 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

Quick Look: Alti­tude and Child Development

ElizabethOct 18, 2021, 1:20 AM
58 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Pre­dic­tive Cat­e­gories Make Bad Causal Variables

HazardOct 18, 2021, 3:02 PM
19 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Hu­mans are the uni­ver­sal eco­nomic bottleneck

DachOct 18, 2021, 8:32 AM
24 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Re­search for Ad­vanc­ing Wis­dom and Intelligence

ozziegooenOct 18, 2021, 10:28 PM
48 points
8 comments5 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Book Re­view: ‘Pre­dict­ing the Next Pres­i­dent: The Keys to the White House’

TranscendetalIdealistOct 20, 2021, 12:42 AM
10 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

Mo­ravec’s Para­dox Comes From The Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

james.lucassenOct 20, 2021, 6:23 AM
32 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(jlucassen.com)

Sen­tience, Sapi­ence, Con­scious­ness & Self-Aware­ness: Defin­ing Com­plex Terms

LukeOnlineOct 20, 2021, 1:48 PM
8 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Young Scientists

A RayOct 22, 2021, 6:01 PM
28 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Frank­furt Dec­la­ra­tion on the Cam­bridge Dec­la­ra­tion on Consciousness

JanOct 24, 2021, 9:54 AM
9 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

P₂B: Plan to P₂B Better

Oct 24, 2021, 3:21 PM
33 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

Nanosys­tems are Poorly Abstracted

J BostockOct 24, 2021, 10:44 AM
24 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Phil Tram­mell on Eco­nomic Growth Un­der Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Michaël TrazziOct 24, 2021, 6:11 PM
11 points
3 comments54 min readLW link
(youtu.be)

[Question] Orthog­o­nal­ity and the in­creased over­lap of ac­tions with the set of all events that comes with in­creased intelligence

Jay95Oct 25, 2021, 5:17 AM
−8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Don’t Use the “God’s-Eye View” in An­thropic Prob­lems.

dadadarrenOct 26, 2021, 1:47 PM
6 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

They don’t make ’em like they used to

jasoncrawfordOct 27, 2021, 7:44 PM
39 points
87 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Bet­ter and Worse Ways of Stat­ing SIA

dadadarrenOct 28, 2021, 4:04 PM
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

On the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe CarlsmithOct 29, 2021, 5:50 PM
34 points
4 comments32 min readLW link

Naval Ravikant and Chris Dixon Didn’t Ex­plain Any Web3 Use Cases

LironOct 29, 2021, 9:54 PM
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(medium.com)

[Question] Which of our on­line writ­ings was used to train GPT-3?

Mati_RoyOct 30, 2021, 9:52 PM
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Great-Filter Hard-Step Math, Ex­plained Intuitively

Daniel_EthNov 1, 2021, 11:45 PM
26 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

2020 PhilPapers Sur­vey Results

Rob BensingerNov 2, 2021, 5:00 AM
58 points
50 comments12 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2021.

NunoSempereNov 2, 2021, 2:07 PM
22 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

The Opt-Out Clause

Raymond DNov 3, 2021, 10:02 PM
36 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Are there any es­says on what scares us? A study of fear, so-to-speak.

sunokthinksNov 4, 2021, 9:12 PM
−2 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Some Re­marks on Reg­u­la­tor The­o­rems No One Asked For

Past AccountNov 5, 2021, 7:33 PM
19 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Con­cen­tra­tion of Force

Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)Nov 6, 2021, 8:20 AM
206 points
21 comments12 min readLW link

You Don’t Need An­throp­ics To Do Science

dadadarrenNov 7, 2021, 3:07 PM
0 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

[Question] How much of the sup­ply-chain is­sues are due to mon­e­tary policy?

ChristianKlNov 7, 2021, 9:21 PM
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­cerpts from Veyne’s “Did the Greeks Believe in Their Myths?”

Rob BensingerNov 8, 2021, 8:23 PM
24 points
1 comment16 min readLW link

Where did the 5 micron num­ber come from? Nowhere good. [Wired.com]

ElizabethNov 9, 2021, 7:14 AM
99 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(www.wired.com)

Re­lax­ation-Based Search, From Every­day Life To Un­fa­mil­iar Territory

johnswentworthNov 10, 2021, 9:47 PM
57 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

AGI is at least as far away as Nu­clear Fu­sion.

Logan ZoellnerNov 11, 2021, 9:33 PM
0 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Preprint is out! 100,000 lu­mens to treat sea­sonal af­fec­tive disorder

FabienneNov 12, 2021, 5:59 PM
156 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Aver­age prob­a­bil­ities, not log odds

AlexMennenNov 12, 2021, 9:39 PM
20 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Is Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory still an ac­tive area of re­search?

Grant DemareeNov 13, 2021, 12:30 AM
5 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Tele­vised sports ex­ist to gam­ble with testos­terone lev­els us­ing pre­dic­tion skill

LucentNov 14, 2021, 6:24 PM
22 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

A phar­ma­ceu­ti­cal stock pric­ing mystery

DirectedEvolutionNov 14, 2021, 1:19 AM
14 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Re: At­tempted Gears Anal­y­sis of AGI In­ter­ven­tion Dis­cus­sion With Eliezer

lsusrNov 15, 2021, 10:02 AM
20 points
8 comments15 min readLW link

The po­etry of progress

jasoncrawfordNov 15, 2021, 7:24 PM
50 points
6 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Stream­ing Science on Twitch

A RayNov 15, 2021, 10:24 PM
21 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Tak­ing a sim­plified model

dominicqNov 16, 2021, 10:21 PM
9 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Sasha Chapin on bad so­cial norms in ra­tio­nal­ity/​EA

Kaj_SotalaNov 17, 2021, 9:43 AM
47 points
22 comments5 min readLW link
(sashachapin.substack.com)

Fore­cast­ing: Zeroth and First Order

jsteinhardtNov 18, 2021, 1:30 AM
33 points
6 comments5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

[Question] Which booster shot to get and when?

NormanPerlmutterNov 19, 2021, 8:52 AM
22 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “Sorceror’s Ap­pren­tice” by Tahir Shah

lsusrNov 20, 2021, 11:29 AM
87 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Do fac­tored sets elu­ci­date any­thing about how to up­date ev­ery­day be­liefs?

TekhneMakreNov 22, 2021, 6:51 AM
5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

In­te­grat­ing Three Models of (Hu­man) Cognition

jbkjrNov 23, 2021, 1:06 AM
29 points
4 comments32 min readLW link

Laplace’s rule of succession

Ege ErdilNov 23, 2021, 3:48 PM
47 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Danger of mo­ti­va­tio­ge­n­e­sis in in­ter­dis­ci­plinary work

particlemaniaNov 25, 2021, 12:13 AM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Economist Irene Ng on Mar­ket de­sign, en­trepreneur­ship, and in­no­va­tion.

fowlertmNov 26, 2021, 7:00 PM
7 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Find­ing the Cen­tral Limit The­o­rem in Bayes’ rule

Maxwell PetersonNov 27, 2021, 5:48 AM
21 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How com­mon are abio­ge­n­e­sis events?

DachNov 27, 2021, 7:40 PM
3 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Frame Control

AellaNov 27, 2021, 10:59 PM
273 points
270 comments23 min readLW link1 review

The bonds of fam­ily and com­mu­nity: Poverty and cru­elty among Rus­sian peas­ants in the late 19th century

jasoncrawfordNov 28, 2021, 5:22 PM
111 points
34 comments15 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Ap­par­ently win­ning by the bias of your opponents

tailcalledNov 28, 2021, 1:20 PM
18 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Should PAXLOVID be given pre­ven­tively?

ChristianKlNov 27, 2021, 4:51 PM
11 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe CarlsmithNov 28, 2021, 8:35 PM
53 points
11 comments47 min readLW link

Ques­tion/​Is­sue with the 5/​10 Problem

acgtNov 29, 2021, 10:45 AM
6 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Self-study­ing to de­velop an in­side-view model of AI al­ign­ment; co-studiers wel­come!

Vael GatesNov 30, 2021, 9:25 AM
13 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

My take on higher-or­der game theory

NisanNov 30, 2021, 5:56 AM
38 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Ma­chine Agents, Hy­brid Su­per­in­tel­li­gences, and The Loss of Hu­man Con­trol (Chap­ter 1)

Justin BullockNov 30, 2021, 5:35 PM
4 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesian phys­i­cal­ism: proofs part II

Vanessa KosoyNov 30, 2021, 10:27 PM
9 points
0 comments25 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesian phys­i­cal­ism: proofs part I

Vanessa KosoyNov 30, 2021, 10:26 PM
9 points
0 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] Are ex­pla­na­tions that ex­plain more phe­nom­ena always more un­likely than nar­rower ver­sions?

FinalFormal2Dec 1, 2021, 6:34 PM
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Hy­pothe­ses about Find­ing Knowl­edge and One-Shot Causal Entanglements

J BostockDec 1, 2021, 5:01 PM
16 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2021

NunoSempereDec 2, 2021, 9:44 PM
18 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Se­cond-or­der se­lec­tion against the immortal

MalmesburyDec 3, 2021, 5:01 AM
43 points
46 comments6 min readLW link

Im­pli­ca­tions of the Grabby Aliens Model

harsimonyDec 6, 2021, 6:34 PM
2 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(harsimony.wordpress.com)

A Frame­work to Ex­plain Bayesian Models

JsevillamolDec 6, 2021, 10:38 AM
24 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

Anti-cor­re­lated causation

DirectedEvolutionDec 6, 2021, 4:36 AM
18 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Declus­ter­ing, reclus­ter­ing, and filling in thingspace

Stuart_ArmstrongDec 6, 2021, 8:53 PM
16 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Ran­dom­ness in Science

rogersbaconDec 7, 2021, 6:17 PM
19 points
15 comments9 min readLW link

The Last Ques­tions (part 1)

rogersbaconDec 8, 2021, 6:09 PM
4 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

COVID and the holidays

Connor_FlexmanDec 8, 2021, 11:13 PM
71 points
31 comments9 min readLW link

The end of Vic­to­rian cul­ture, part I: struc­tural forces

David Hugh-JonesDec 9, 2021, 7:25 PM
22 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Com­bin­ing Forecasts

jsteinhardtDec 10, 2021, 2:10 AM
10 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

There is es­sen­tially one best-val­i­dated the­ory of cog­ni­tion.

abramdemskiDec 10, 2021, 3:51 PM
88 points
34 comments3 min readLW link

The Promise and Peril of Finite Sets

davidadDec 10, 2021, 12:29 PM
37 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Nu­clear war anthropics

smountjoyDec 12, 2021, 4:54 AM
11 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Why do gov­ern­ments re­fer to ex­is­ten­tial risks pri­mar­ily in terms of na­tional se­cu­rity?

Evan_GaensbauerDec 13, 2021, 1:05 AM
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 1

Pablo RepettoDec 12, 2021, 11:10 PM
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

[Question] Is “gears-level” just a syn­onym for “mechanis­tic”?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)Dec 13, 2021, 4:11 AM
48 points
30 comments1 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Break­down—Per­sonal At­tempt at a Review

Jake Arft-GuatelliDec 14, 2021, 12:40 AM
4 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

Leverage

lsusrDec 15, 2021, 5:20 AM
23 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

More power to you

jasoncrawfordDec 15, 2021, 11:50 PM
16 points
14 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Where can one learn deep in­tu­itions about in­for­ma­tion the­ory?

ValentineDec 16, 2021, 3:47 PM
66 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

Omicron Post #7

ZviDec 16, 2021, 5:30 PM
154 points
41 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The “Other” Option

jsteinhardtDec 16, 2021, 8:20 PM
24 points
1 comment7 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Viru­lence Management

harsimonyDec 16, 2021, 7:25 PM
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(harsimony.wordpress.com)

The end of Vic­to­rian cul­ture, part II: peo­ple and history

David Hugh-JonesDec 18, 2021, 6:55 PM
9 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

How the Equiv­a­lent Bet Test Ac­tu­ally Works

Erich_GrunewaldDec 18, 2021, 11:17 AM
4 points
1 comment4 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Law of No Evidence

ZviDec 20, 2021, 1:50 PM
111 points
20 comments4 min readLW link1 review
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Are “non-com­putable func­tions” always hard to solve in prac­tice?

MorpheusDec 20, 2021, 4:32 PM
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

A Short Note on My Value Notion

aysajanDec 20, 2021, 2:35 PM
11 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Per­pet­ual Dick­en­sian Poverty?

jefftkDec 21, 2021, 1:30 PM
116 points
18 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Quick Poll: Booster Reactions

ElizabethDec 21, 2021, 7:40 AM
40 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

On (Not) Read­ing Papers

JanDec 21, 2021, 9:57 AM
52 points
8 comments7 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

Six Spe­cial­iza­tions Makes You World-Class

lsusrDec 22, 2021, 8:03 AM
52 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

DnD.Sci GURPS Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

J BostockDec 22, 2021, 7:05 PM
16 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Wor­ld­build­ing ex­er­cise: The High­way­verse.

Yair HalberstadtDec 22, 2021, 6:47 AM
12 points
13 comments11 min readLW link

Pri­ori­tiz­ing Information

jsteinhardtDec 24, 2021, 12:00 AM
15 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Belief-con­di­tional things—things that only ex­ist when you be­lieve in them

JanDec 25, 2021, 10:49 AM
7 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

My Overview of the AI Align­ment Land­scape: Threat Models

Neel NandaDec 25, 2021, 11:07 PM
50 points
4 comments28 min readLW link

In­ter­net Liter­acy Atrophy

ElizabethDec 26, 2021, 12:30 PM
107 points
49 comments3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

The Debtor’s Revolt

VaniverDec 26, 2021, 7:32 PM
22 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

On State­less Societies

Martin SustrikDec 27, 2021, 7:28 AM
52 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

Omicron: My Cur­rent Model

ZviDec 28, 2021, 5:10 PM
251 points
73 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Omicron Post #10

ZviDec 28, 2021, 6:20 PM
67 points
18 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why did Europe con­quer the world?

lsusrDec 28, 2021, 12:00 PM
1 point
48 comments6 min readLW link

More ac­cu­rate mod­els can be worse

tailcalledDec 28, 2021, 12:20 PM
19 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

From Con­sid­er­a­tions to Probabilities

jsteinhardtDec 31, 2021, 2:10 AM
10 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Exegesis

rogersbaconDec 31, 2021, 5:48 PM
9 points
2 comments20 min readLW link
(rogersbacon.substack.com)

D&D.Sci Holi­day Spe­cial: How the Grinch Pes­simized Christmas

aphyerDec 31, 2021, 4:23 PM
35 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2022)

Daniel KokotajloJan 1, 2022, 7:49 PM
13 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Care­ful With Trailing Averages

jefftkJan 1, 2022, 4:00 PM
31 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

$1000 USD prize—Cir­cu­lar Depen­dency of Counterfactuals

Chris_LeongJan 1, 2022, 9:43 AM
37 points
114 comments4 min readLW link

Ge­net­ics: It some­times skips a gen­er­a­tion is a ter­rible ex­pla­na­tion!

Jan Christian RefsgaardJan 1, 2022, 3:12 PM
15 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Fun with bit­strings and bijections

Adam ScherlisJan 2, 2022, 5:07 AM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(adam.scherlis.com)

What is a Coun­ter­fac­tual: An Ele­men­tary In­tro­duc­tion to the Causal Hierarchy

DarmaniJan 2, 2022, 3:46 AM
11 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Each refer­ence class has its own end

avturchinJan 2, 2022, 3:59 PM
8 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices—Resolution

SimonMJan 2, 2022, 11:55 AM
56 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als from en­sem­bles of peers

David JohnstonJan 4, 2022, 7:01 AM
3 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Causal­ity and de­ter­minism in so­cial sci­ence—An in­ves­ti­ga­tion us­ing Pearl’s causal ladder

tailcalledJan 3, 2022, 5:51 PM
12 points
10 comments9 min readLW link

Some thoughts about an es­ti­ma­tor by Taleb

paladimJan 4, 2022, 5:37 AM
4 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

New­comb’s Prob­lem as an Iter­ated Pri­soner’s Dilemma

JerdleJan 5, 2022, 10:48 PM
13 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 4

lsusrJan 5, 2022, 11:03 AM
27 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A Re­ac­tion to Wolf­gang Sch­warz’s “On Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory”

HeighnJan 5, 2022, 9:00 AM
6 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

[Book Re­view]: The Bonobo and the Athe­ist by Frans De Waal

J BostockJan 5, 2022, 10:29 PM
18 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

The Prob­lem of the Cri­te­rion is NOT an Open Problem

Gordon Seidoh WorleyJan 6, 2022, 4:31 PM
5 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Sig­nal­ing isn’t about sig­nal­ing, it’s about Goodhart

ValentineJan 6, 2022, 6:49 PM
57 points
31 comments9 min readLW link

A com­mon mis­con­cep­tion about the evolu­tion of viruses

mukashiJan 6, 2022, 10:00 AM
7 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Re­duc­tion­ism is not the ul­ti­mate tool for causal inference

tailcalledJan 7, 2022, 9:51 PM
11 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

[Question] The best cur­ricu­lum for ev­ery goal

Randomized, ControlledJan 8, 2022, 6:47 PM
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] To­tal com­pute available to evolution

redbirdJan 9, 2022, 3:25 AM
16 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2021

NunoSempereJan 10, 2022, 7:35 PM
30 points
5 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Is state a (semi-) ra­tio­nal agent?

BirkeJan 10, 2022, 7:53 PM
2 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

No Ab­strac­tion Without a Goal

dkirmaniJan 10, 2022, 8:24 PM
27 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Scasper’s Defi­ni­tion of Sub­junc­tive Dependence

HeighnJan 10, 2022, 4:22 PM
6 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

The First Per­son And The Phys­i­cal Person

dadadarrenJan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM
13 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Holi­day Spe­cial: How the Grinch Pes­simized Christ­mas Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyerJan 11, 2022, 1:29 AM
22 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 1

lsusrJan 12, 2022, 9:30 AM
33 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Poli­ti­cal Office for Begin­ners?

AsgårdJan 12, 2022, 5:27 PM
36 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 2

Pablo RepettoJan 12, 2022, 10:32 PM
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

On the Im­pos­si­bil­ity of In­ter­ac­tion with Si­mu­lated Agents

WalkaboutJan 13, 2022, 5:50 PM
−3 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Un­der­stand­ing as hi­er­ar­chi­cal model building

invertedpassionJan 13, 2022, 9:28 AM
5 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

2020 Re­view Article

VaniverJan 14, 2022, 4:58 AM
74 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Look For Prin­ci­ples Which Will Carry Over To The Next Paradigm

johnswentworthJan 14, 2022, 8:22 PM
158 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Some thoughts on “The Na­ture of Coun­ter­fac­tu­als”

tailcalledJan 16, 2022, 6:12 PM
18 points
10 comments11 min readLW link

A con­nec­tomic study of a petas­cale frag­ment of hu­man cere­bral cortex

PointlessOneJan 17, 2022, 8:49 AM
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(vcg.seas.harvard.edu)

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 2

lsusrJan 19, 2022, 11:36 PM
46 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Psy­chomagic | Chap­ter 3: In­tel­li­gence Explosions

Henry ProwbellJan 20, 2022, 1:11 PM
21 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Im­pli­ca­tions of Civ­i­liza­tional Inad­e­quacy (re­view­ing mazes/​simu­lacra/​etc)

RaemonJan 21, 2022, 1:45 AM
91 points
14 comments10 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing 2021 ACX Predictions

ZviJan 25, 2022, 6:30 PM
34 points
11 comments22 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Freudi­anism among the 17th cen­tury Wendat

David GrossJan 26, 2022, 6:15 PM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Disam­biguat­ing the ‘Ob­serv­able Uni­verse’

Sam EnrightJan 26, 2022, 4:50 PM
24 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

New­comb’s Lot­tery Problem

HeighnJan 27, 2022, 4:28 PM
1 point
9 comments1 min readLW link

Cop­ing with Undecidability

MorpheusJan 27, 2022, 10:31 AM
6 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 3

lsusrJan 26, 2022, 8:56 PM
34 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Look­ing back at 2021

NunoSempereJan 27, 2022, 8:08 PM
57 points
6 comments9 min readLW link
(forecasting.substack.com)

How A Highly Sen­si­tive Per­son Sees Words

LightStarJan 28, 2022, 3:16 AM
8 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] New­comb’s Grandfather

Yair HalberstadtJan 28, 2022, 8:56 AM
5 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

De­con­fus­ing Deception

J BostockJan 29, 2022, 4:43 PM
26 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Knowl­edge Lo­cal­iza­tion: Ten­ta­tively Pos­i­tive Re­sults on OCR

J BostockJan 30, 2022, 11:57 AM
7 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

What do we mean when we say the brain com­putes?

Adam ShaiJan 31, 2022, 3:33 AM
3 points
5 comments10 min readLW link

Ca­reer Day: A Short Story

vernamcipherJan 30, 2022, 10:22 PM
12 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(mflood.substack.com)

Mean­ing of Words—An Ex­er­cise for Ac­tive Thinking

aysajanJan 31, 2022, 8:18 PM
13 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

2022 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

ZviFeb 1, 2022, 8:30 PM
30 points
2 comments18 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

SIA be­comes SSA in the multiverse

avturchinFeb 1, 2022, 11:31 AM
7 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

Im­mune, In a Nutshell

JsevillamolJan 31, 2022, 11:07 PM
50 points
4 comments17 min readLW link

Con­tra In­finite Ethics, Utility Functions

kyleherndonFeb 2, 2022, 10:32 PM
6 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 5

lsusrFeb 2, 2022, 10:01 PM
21 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2022

NunoSempereFeb 3, 2022, 7:22 PM
17 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize for fore­cast write­ups on cu­rated Me­tac­u­lus questions

Feb 4, 2022, 8:06 PM
36 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

A Quick Look At 20% Time

ElizabethFeb 4, 2022, 10:10 PM
78 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

What is a “philos­o­phy of progress?”

jasoncrawfordFeb 4, 2022, 10:02 PM
10 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Anti-Parfit’s Hitchhiker

k64Feb 4, 2022, 11:37 PM
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Phonol­ogy | Sekko

Zmavli CaimleFeb 5, 2022, 11:59 AM
2 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Con­fi­dence in­ter­vals seem to be rarely use­ful, in and of themselves

anorangiccFeb 5, 2022, 11:23 AM
1 point
4 comments3 min readLW link

Com­putabil­ity and Complexity

Feb 5, 2022, 2:53 PM
21 points
4 comments11 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

[Question] Pre­dic­tions for 2050?

FinalFormal2Feb 6, 2022, 8:33 PM
−2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Med­i­ta­tion and Neu­ro­science, some odds and ends

MarkLFeb 8, 2022, 1:47 AM
28 points
12 comments10 min readLW link

Defend­ing Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

HeighnFeb 8, 2022, 2:58 PM
4 points
10 comments11 min readLW link

Create a pre­dic­tion mar­ket in two min­utes on Man­i­fold Markets

Feb 9, 2022, 5:36 PM
46 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets are for Out­comes Beyond Our Control

lsusrFeb 9, 2022, 9:54 AM
51 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 6

lsusrFeb 9, 2022, 8:30 AM
28 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

An ex­ten­sion of Au­mann’s ap­proach for re­duc­ing game the­ory to bayesian de­ci­sion the­ory to in­clude EDT and UDT like agents

Karl BriseboisFeb 9, 2022, 4:17 AM
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Re­v­erse en­g­ineer­ing of the simulation

Jan BetleyFeb 7, 2022, 9:36 PM
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

Bet on Rare Un­de­sir­able Out­comes when Seed­ing a Pre­dic­tion Market

lsusrFeb 10, 2022, 12:20 AM
33 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Your Ene­mies Can Use Your Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Against You

lsusrFeb 10, 2022, 10:37 AM
42 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

The Defeat of Rea­son?

M. Y. ZuoFeb 10, 2022, 4:29 AM
4 points
49 comments6 min readLW link

Clar­ify­ing the palata­bil­ity the­ory of obesity

Matthew BarnettFeb 10, 2022, 7:16 PM
86 points
19 comments10 min readLW link

Es­cap­ing Locality

L3moncak3Feb 11, 2022, 4:08 AM
1 point
1 comment1 min readLW link

Does nee­dle anx­iety drive vac­cine hes­i­tancy?

Matthew BarnettFeb 11, 2022, 7:35 PM
59 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Our philo­soph­i­cal thought ex­per­i­ments aren’t good enough and we can do better

Dead Hour CanoeFeb 11, 2022, 4:48 PM
8 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Th­e­ses on Sleep

guzeyFeb 11, 2022, 12:58 PM
122 points
102 comments34 min readLW link

No, hu­man life was not a mis­ery un­til the 1950s

David Hugh-JonesFeb 11, 2022, 10:39 AM
19 points
34 comments4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Chaos and Stability

lsusrFeb 12, 2022, 10:19 AM
33 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

An ar­gu­ment against ex­ces­sive con­sump­tion of coffee from 1674

M. Y. ZuoFeb 12, 2022, 6:39 PM
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Most likely is not likely

MalmesburyFeb 12, 2022, 5:27 PM
17 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

If you want to live longer, be­come President

BezziFeb 11, 2022, 11:14 PM
8 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

The in­no­cent self

Richard_NgoFeb 13, 2022, 3:10 AM
27 points
5 comments3 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Ab­strac­tions as Re­dun­dant Information

johnswentworthFeb 13, 2022, 4:17 AM
62 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

Observation

LoganStrohlFeb 19, 2022, 6:47 PM
58 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

In­ter­lude: On Realness

LoganStrohlFeb 17, 2022, 7:02 PM
47 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

The Territory

LoganStrohlFeb 15, 2022, 6:56 PM
94 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

Whence the sexes?

Richard_NgoFeb 13, 2022, 8:40 PM
61 points
35 comments3 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Book re­view: The Age of Surveillance Capitalism

Richard_NgoFeb 14, 2022, 7:50 AM
34 points
5 comments4 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

[Question] Fram­ing Practicum: Gen­eral Factor

tailcalledFeb 14, 2022, 4:35 PM
20 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

Me­mory de­cay in hu­man brains from op­tions pric­ing theory

Jalex StarkFeb 14, 2022, 7:52 AM
14 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Strevens on sci­en­tific explanation

Richard_NgoFeb 14, 2022, 8:10 AM
16 points
5 comments7 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Some limi­ta­tions of re­duc­tion­ism about epistemology

Richard_NgoFeb 14, 2022, 8:50 AM
18 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

A com­pila­tion of mi­suses of statistics

Younes KamelFeb 14, 2022, 9:53 PM
4 points
11 comments13 min readLW link
(youneskamel.substack.com)

Bazant: An al­ter­nate covid calculator

ElizabethFeb 15, 2022, 7:50 PM
24 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

High­lights from “In­te­gral Spiritu­al­ity”

Gordon Seidoh WorleyApr 12, 2019, 6:19 PM
15 points
27 comments24 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 7

lsusrFeb 16, 2022, 7:10 PM
14 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] How to es­ti­mate con­fi­dence in­ter­vals for fermi es­ti­mate?

SønderjyeFeb 20, 2022, 1:26 AM
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Si­mu­la­tion arguments

Joe CarlsmithFeb 18, 2022, 10:45 AM
44 points
16 comments65 min readLW link

What The Foucault

adamShimiFeb 19, 2022, 10:48 PM
37 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

12 in­ter­est­ing things I learned study­ing the dis­cov­ery of na­ture’s laws

Ben PaceFeb 19, 2022, 11:39 PM
246 points
40 comments9 min readLW link

An­ti­cor­re­lated Noise In­jec­tion for Im­proved Generalization

tailcalledFeb 20, 2022, 10:15 AM
2 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Break­ing the SIA with an ex­po­nen­tially-Sleep­ing Beauty

0nautFeb 20, 2022, 8:03 AM
7 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Prac­ti­tioner: Novice

The Guild of the RoseFeb 20, 2022, 7:01 PM
25 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(guildoftherose.org)

Sum­mary/​Re­view/​Quotes of “The WEIRDest Peo­ple in the World” by Joseph Henrich

TorelloFeb 21, 2022, 8:03 PM
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.SCP: Ano­ma­lous Ac­qui­si­tions Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyerFeb 22, 2022, 6:19 PM
31 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

But­terfly Ideas

ElizabethFeb 22, 2022, 7:40 AM
120 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Pa­tient Observation

LoganStrohlFeb 23, 2022, 7:31 PM
103 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

[Question] Was the K-T event a Great Filter?

YorethFeb 23, 2022, 8:35 PM
8 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Rus­sia has In­vaded Ukraine

lsusrFeb 24, 2022, 7:52 AM
170 points
274 comments3 min readLW link

Naturalism

LoganStrohlFeb 24, 2022, 7:45 PM
68 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Cap­tur­ing Uncer­tainty in Pre­dic­tion Markets

hawkebiaFeb 24, 2022, 5:23 PM
2 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Cryptoepistemology

davidadFeb 24, 2022, 8:34 PM
30 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Ar­tifi­cial Wordcels

Jacob FalkovichFeb 24, 2022, 9:18 PM
17 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

My at­ti­tude to­wards death

Richard_NgoFeb 25, 2022, 3:20 PM
62 points
30 comments6 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

[Question] Why would GDP X GDP Per Cap­ita be used as a mea­sure­ment of power? What’s the pur­pose of squar­ing GDP?

dqups1Feb 25, 2022, 2:56 AM
1 point
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Graphol­ogy posts.

Nocturnal AtavisticFeb 27, 2022, 8:50 PM
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Mun­dane, sharp, crazy

NyeogmiFeb 28, 2022, 8:02 PM
14 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Con­spir­acy-proof archeology

MalmesburyFeb 27, 2022, 10:59 PM
64 points
10 comments6 min readLW link

Seek Mis­takes in the Space Between Math and Reality

aphyerMar 1, 2022, 5:58 AM
29 points
23 comments4 min readLW link

The Wicked Prob­lem Experience

HoldenKarnofskyMar 2, 2022, 5:50 PM
111 points
5 comments9 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

[Question] Can you help me find this book?

mukashiMar 2, 2022, 10:19 AM
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 9

lsusrMar 2, 2022, 9:45 AM
21 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Sum­mit-Seek­ing as Distinct From Mountaineering

SableMar 2, 2022, 10:40 AM
16 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

The Geo­met­ric Series of 1/​(d+1) is a Frac­tion in Base-d

lsusrMar 3, 2022, 5:06 AM
14 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

How satis­fied should you ex­pect to be with your part­ner?

VaniverFeb 22, 2022, 11:27 PM
84 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

A Warm Up Prob­lem for Yud­kowsky’s New Fiction

Robert KennedyMar 3, 2022, 3:25 PM
14 points
45 comments1 min readLW link

Re­sid­ing in the mor­tal realm

So8resSep 6, 2015, 3:00 AM
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(mindingourway.com)

The Agent

IdeopunkMar 2, 2022, 10:43 PM
13 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Deter­minis­tic Strate­gies Can Be Suboptimal

Robert KennedyMar 4, 2022, 9:09 PM
4 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2022

NunoSempereMar 5, 2022, 7:30 PM
33 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Pa­tri­cia Hall & The War­lock Curse

JsevillamolMar 6, 2022, 4:32 PM
14 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Ac­cel­er­ated [Honors] Calculus

lsusrMar 6, 2022, 10:34 AM
31 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

2022 ACX pre­dic­tions: mar­ket prices

Sam MarksMar 6, 2022, 6:24 AM
21 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

You can tell a draw­ing from a painting

alkexrMar 7, 2022, 11:45 AM
77 points
22 comments6 min readLW link

How to Best Use Twitter

ZviMar 7, 2022, 3:40 PM
61 points
9 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket News/​Ticker?

RaelifinMar 8, 2022, 9:44 PM
13 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Meadow Theory

Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)Mar 9, 2022, 5:13 PM
120 points
15 comments16 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 10

lsusrMar 9, 2022, 7:59 PM
24 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Best LessWrong posts for un­der­stand­ing sci­en­tific stud­ies.

Sean McAnenyMar 10, 2022, 1:13 PM
10 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Treat Ex­am­ples as World-Building

adamShimiMar 10, 2022, 3:09 PM
19 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

What’s the chance a smart Lon­don res­i­dent dies of a Rus­sian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilanMar 10, 2022, 7:20 PM
40 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Book re­view: The Dawn of Everything

PeterMcCluskeyMar 11, 2022, 1:56 AM
24 points
1 comment7 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Al­gorith­mic Mea­sure of Emer­gence v2.0

intersticeMar 10, 2022, 8:26 PM
14 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Book re­view of “Mengzi”

AnonymousMar 12, 2022, 4:54 AM
31 points
2 comments12 min readLW link

Deep Dives: My Ad­vice for Pur­su­ing Work in Re­search

scasperMar 11, 2022, 5:56 PM
21 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Why Rome?

Erich_GrunewaldMar 12, 2022, 11:29 AM
19 points
7 comments8 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Game the­ory, sanc­tions, and Ukraine

Dumbledore's ArmyMar 13, 2022, 5:45 PM
27 points
37 comments3 min readLW link

Whence the de­ter­mi­nant?

Ege ErdilMar 13, 2022, 7:38 PM
23 points
28 comments6 min readLW link

One pos­si­ble ap­proach to de­velop the best pos­si­ble gen­eral learn­ing algorithm

martillopartMar 14, 2022, 7:24 PM
3 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Smok­ing cigarettes in air­planes made the air­planes safer?

CraigMichaelMar 15, 2022, 5:03 PM
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

I read Ein­stein’s bi­og­ra­phy. Here are 15 quotes that re­veal his philos­o­phy on life.

dmaberyMar 15, 2022, 6:14 PM
−7 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on Crowd­fund­ing with Re­fund Bonuses

Yoav RavidMar 16, 2022, 4:29 PM
25 points
15 comments6 min readLW link

[Quote] Why does i show up in Quan­tum Me­chan­ics and other Beau­tiful Math Mysteries

Gunnar_ZarnckeMar 16, 2022, 11:58 AM
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

War Mode vs. Peace Mode

konstellMar 16, 2022, 3:36 AM
10 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Can you only re­al­ize ob­jects in your mind af­ter they ap­pear?

CuiMar 16, 2022, 4:12 PM
3 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Phase tran­si­tions and AGI

Mar 17, 2022, 5:22 PM
44 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Cold Takes reader sur­vey—let me know what you want more and less of!

HoldenKarnofskyMar 18, 2022, 7:20 PM
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

[Question] Thoughts on the SPIES Fore­cast­ing Method?

T431Mar 19, 2022, 3:22 PM
19 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Wargam­ing AGI Development

ryan_bMar 19, 2022, 5:59 PM
36 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What are the best el­e­men­tary math prob­lems you know?

Ege ErdilMar 20, 2022, 5:18 PM
36 points
85 comments1 min readLW link

On Con­text And People

JanMar 19, 2022, 11:38 PM
7 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

The Dawn of Every­thing: a review

David Hugh-JonesMar 21, 2022, 12:53 PM
32 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Counter-the­ses on Sleep

NatáliaMar 21, 2022, 11:21 PM
409 points
130 comments15 min readLW link

Even more cu­rated con­ver­sa­tions with brilli­ant rationalists

spencergMar 21, 2022, 11:49 PM
57 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

Cir­cu­lar Coun­ter­fac­tu­als “Only that which Hap­pens is Pos­si­ble”

SebastianG Mar 23, 2022, 2:40 PM
4 points
15 comments9 min readLW link

Fly­wheels of progress

jasoncrawfordMar 23, 2022, 8:42 PM
30 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Why Mir­a­cles Should Not Be Used as a Rea­son to Believe in a Religion

YitzMar 23, 2022, 8:53 PM
−2 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing research

Pablo RepettoMar 23, 2022, 8:43 PM
2 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

In the very near fu­ture the in­ter­net will an­swer all of our ques­tions and that makes me sad

David GrossMar 24, 2022, 3:55 AM
24 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 3/​24/​22: Respite

ZviMar 24, 2022, 3:00 PM
23 points
4 comments13 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What if fiat money was cre­ated at a fixed rate and given to gov­ern­ment?

MrThinkMar 24, 2022, 1:02 PM
3 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Fake Jour­nal Club proposal

gwernMar 25, 2022, 2:23 PM
26 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Les­son Plan: Bi­ases in Quan­tity Estimation

abstractapplicMar 26, 2022, 12:23 AM
9 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Prim­i­tive Per­spec­tives and Sleep­ing Beauty

dadadarrenMar 26, 2022, 1:55 AM
16 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

My mis­take about the war in Ukraine

Ege ErdilMar 25, 2022, 11:04 PM
40 points
35 comments3 min readLW link

Is Me­tac­u­lus Slow to Up­date?

SimonMMar 25, 2022, 7:44 PM
73 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Magic, tricks, and high-di­men­sional con­figu­ra­tion spaces

pchvykovMar 26, 2022, 7:14 PM
7 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

A Primer on God, Liber­al­ism and the End of History

Mahdi ComplexMar 26, 2022, 8:07 PM
33 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Beyond Blame Minimization

physicaleconomicsMar 27, 2022, 12:03 AM
137 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

Toward a gen­eral struc­ture of eco­nomic explanation

physicaleconomicsMar 27, 2022, 11:33 PM
9 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Sums and products

Mar 27, 2022, 9:57 PM
23 points
11 comments12 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Beyond Blame Min­i­miza­tion: Thoughts from the comments

physicaleconomicsMar 29, 2022, 10:28 PM
25 points
8 comments17 min readLW link

Aban­doned pro­to­type video game teach­ing el­e­men­tary cir­cuit theory

Steven ByrnesMar 30, 2022, 8:37 PM
17 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

No, EDT Did Not Get It Right All Along: Why the Coin Flip Creation Prob­lem Is Irrelevant

HeighnMar 30, 2022, 6:41 PM
6 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

The lure of technocracy

jasoncrawfordMar 31, 2022, 7:58 PM
27 points
13 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The Halt­ing Prob­lem and the Im­pos­si­ble Photocopier

J BostockMar 31, 2022, 6:19 PM
35 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2222

NunoSempereApr 1, 2022, 7:07 AM
82 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

In­tro to hack­ing with the lambda calculus

L Rudolf LMar 31, 2022, 9:51 PM
9 points
1 comment26 min readLW link
(www.strataoftheworld.com)

Jeff Shain­line thinks that there is too much serendipity in the physics of op­ti­cal/​su­per­con­duct­ing com­put­ing, sug­gest­ing that they were part of the crite­ria of Cos­molog­i­cal Nat­u­ral Selec­tion, which could have some fairly love­craf­tian implications

mako yassApr 1, 2022, 7:09 AM
16 points
3 comments26 min readLW link

Anti-Cor­rup­tion Market

lsusrApr 1, 2022, 12:57 PM
78 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

Anti-Cor­rup­tion Market

lsusrApr 1, 2022, 12:57 PM
78 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

How Does The Fi­nance In­dus­try Gen­er­ate Real Eco­nomic Value?

johnswentworthApr 1, 2022, 3:21 PM
52 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

Kosher Hot Dogs

johnswentworthApr 1, 2022, 3:10 PM
53 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

A Very Math­e­mat­i­cal Ex­pla­na­tion of Derivatives

HeighnApr 1, 2022, 2:40 PM
3 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

To Make Bet­ter Soft­ware, Do What Artists Do

mattoApr 1, 2022, 6:34 PM
17 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Op­tional stopping

Ege ErdilApr 2, 2022, 1:58 PM
14 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

Book re­view: Very Im­por­tant People

Richard_NgoApr 2, 2022, 7:00 PM
102 points
17 comments3 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Real biosafety is so­cially inconvenient

ChristianKlApr 2, 2022, 6:50 PM
31 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

How I re­peat­edly failed to use To­bit mod­el­ling on cen­sored data

abstractapplicApr 2, 2022, 6:10 PM
14 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

Monthly Linkspost 3/​2022

KellerApr 2, 2022, 11:57 PM
8 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Vari­adic func­tions in Hindley Milner

philhApr 2, 2022, 8:00 PM
10 points
5 comments23 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

A Sum­mary of “Four Thou­sand Weeks” by Oliver Burkeman

MagnusApr 2, 2022, 2:17 AM
8 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Prac­ti­cal use of the Beta dis­tri­bu­tion for data analysis

Maxwell PetersonApr 3, 2022, 7:34 AM
9 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

The dooms­day ar­gu­ment is normal

avturchinApr 3, 2022, 3:17 PM
7 points
45 comments2 min readLW link

How Real Mo­ral Mazes (in Bay Area star­tups)?

Gordon Seidoh WorleyApr 3, 2022, 6:08 PM
48 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

PD-al­ikes in two dimensions

philhApr 23, 2022, 9:52 AM
13 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Moloch and the sand­pile catastrophe

Eric RaymondApr 2, 2022, 3:35 PM
111 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

A Word to the Wise is Suffi­cient be­cause the Wise Know So Many Words

lsusrApr 4, 2022, 1:08 AM
30 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

The finger­prints of ide­ol­ogy in science

MalmesburyApr 3, 2022, 8:40 PM
21 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Best non-text­books on ev­ery subject

Yair HalberstadtApr 4, 2022, 11:54 AM
68 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Why are we so early?

FlaglandbaseApr 4, 2022, 8:49 AM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Debt, Sub­mis­sion, and a Tech­ni­cal Defi­ni­tion of Drama

BenquoApr 4, 2022, 8:37 PM
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

In­ner Ring as Adversary

BenquoApr 4, 2022, 8:36 PM
39 points
15 comments1 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Lan­guage, Power, and the Cat­e­gor­i­cal Imperative

BenquoApr 4, 2022, 8:33 PM
17 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Dr Fauci as Machi­avel­lian Boddhisattva

BenquoApr 4, 2022, 8:38 PM
35 points
39 comments5 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Civil Law and Poli­ti­cal Drama

BenquoApr 4, 2022, 8:32 PM
19 points
3 comments4 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Why Iraq is so violent

Tim LiptrotApr 5, 2022, 5:13 AM
10 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Case for emer­gency re­sponse teams

Apr 5, 2022, 12:45 PM
17 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Are the fun­da­men­tal phys­i­cal con­stants com­putable?

Yair HalberstadtApr 5, 2022, 3:05 PM
15 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Re­sults: Cir­cu­lar Depen­dency of Coun­ter­fac­tu­als Prize

Chris_LeongApr 5, 2022, 6:29 AM
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Solu­tion to the Un­ex­pected Hang­ing Problem

Dawn DrainApr 5, 2022, 6:19 AM
6 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Duels & D.Sci March 2022: Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

aphyerApr 5, 2022, 12:21 AM
37 points
10 comments6 min readLW link

Over-Or­ga­ni­za­tion (Chap­ter 5)

Justin BullockApr 4, 2022, 8:58 PM
3 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Ukraine Post #9: Again

ZviApr 5, 2022, 7:40 PM
97 points
37 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2022

NunoSempereApr 5, 2022, 8:23 PM
15 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Pre­dic­tions on when the re­quire­ment for pre-flight COVID test­ing for re­turn­ing cit­i­zen will be dropped?

jmhApr 6, 2022, 1:30 AM
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

What I Was Think­ing About Be­fore Alignment

johnswentworthApr 6, 2022, 4:08 PM
77 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Solv­ing the Brazilian Chil­dren’s Game of 007

EpiritoApr 6, 2022, 1:03 PM
3 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Re­quest for beta readers

physicaleconomicsApr 6, 2022, 5:29 AM
14 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Distill­ing and ap­proaches to the determinant

AprilSRApr 6, 2022, 6:34 AM
6 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Distill­ing and ap­proaches to the determinant

AprilSRApr 6, 2022, 6:34 AM
6 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

When to use “meta” vs “self-refer­ence”, “re­cur­sive”, etc.

Alex_AltairApr 6, 2022, 4:57 AM
20 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Com­men­su­rable Scien­tific Paradigms; or, com­putable induction

samshapApr 13, 2022, 12:01 AM
14 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Elas­tic­ity of Wheat Sup­ply?

johnswentworthApr 6, 2022, 8:20 PM
26 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Un­der­stand­ing Gödel’s In­com­plete­ness Theorem

Rafael HarthApr 6, 2022, 7:31 PM
12 points
1 comment20 min readLW link

How to In­ter­pret Vi­tamin D Dosage Us­ing Numbers

BenquoApr 6, 2022, 7:36 PM
11 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Notes on the Au­to­bi­og­ra­phy of Mal­colm X

BenquoApr 6, 2022, 7:34 PM
13 points
4 comments3 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Na­ture’s an­swer to the ex­plore/​ex­ploit problem

lizard_brainApr 8, 2022, 5:13 AM
5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Edge cases don’t in­val­i­date the rule

Adam SelkerApr 8, 2022, 4:17 AM
6 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Is Fish­e­rian Ru­n­away Gra­di­ent Hack­ing?

Ryan KiddApr 10, 2022, 1:47 PM
15 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

A Brief Ex­cur­sion Into Molec­u­lar Neuroscience

JanApr 10, 2022, 5:55 PM
45 points
8 comments19 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

[Question] Im­pact­ful data sci­ence projects

Valentin2026Apr 11, 2022, 4:27 AM
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Good­hart’s Law Causal Diagrams

Apr 11, 2022, 1:52 PM
28 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Is there an equiv­a­lent of the CDF for grad­ing pre­dic­tions?

Optimization ProcessApr 11, 2022, 5:30 AM
6 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

The Effi­cient LessWrong Hy­poth­e­sis—Stock In­vest­ing Competition

MrThinkApr 11, 2022, 8:43 PM
30 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

The Amish

PeterMcCluskeyApr 12, 2022, 2:54 AM
49 points
5 comments6 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Re­view: Struc­ture and In­ter­pre­ta­tion of Com­puter Programs

L Rudolf LApr 11, 2022, 8:27 PM
14 points
9 comments10 min readLW link
(www.strataoftheworld.com)

Ukraine Post #10: Next Phase

ZviApr 12, 2022, 1:40 PM
45 points
13 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What do you think will most prob­a­bly hap­pen to our con­scious­ness when our simu­la­tion ends?

ArtMiApr 12, 2022, 8:23 AM
1 point
6 comments1 min readLW link

Com­mon Knowl­edge is a Cir­cle Game for Toddlers

ryan_bApr 13, 2022, 3:24 PM
56 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Cage of the Language

Martin SustrikApr 13, 2022, 5:20 AM
51 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Sum­mary: “How to Do Re­search” by OSP’s Red

Pablo RepettoApr 13, 2022, 7:46 PM
9 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Fea­tures that make a re­port es­pe­cially helpful to me

lukeprogApr 14, 2022, 1:12 AM
37 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 4/​14/​22: China Stays the Course

ZviApr 14, 2022, 4:10 PM
26 points
1 comment7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing Wiki

nikosApr 15, 2022, 9:52 AM
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Clem’s Memo

abstractapplicApr 16, 2022, 11:59 AM
96 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Mnosis

EvenflairApr 16, 2022, 2:35 PM
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(guildoftherose.org)

Con­scious­ness: A Com­pres­sion-Based Approach

intersticeApr 16, 2022, 4:40 PM
12 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

Are defer­ence games a thing?

Daniel KokotajloApr 18, 2022, 8:57 AM
32 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

Fuck Your Mir­a­cle Year

rogersbaconApr 17, 2022, 4:10 PM
8 points
15 comments8 min readLW link
(rogersbacon.substack.com)

Limi­ta­tions of Laplace’s rule of succession

Tom DavidsonApr 19, 2022, 12:27 AM
26 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Fixed points and free will

Ege ErdilApr 19, 2022, 5:18 PM
30 points
35 comments4 min readLW link

Is growth lin­ear, not ex­po­nen­tial?

jasoncrawfordApr 20, 2022, 6:46 PM
28 points
9 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

How to place a bet on the end of the world

DirectedEvolutionApr 20, 2022, 6:24 PM
26 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

If ev­ery­thing is ge­netic, then noth­ing is ge­netic—Un­der­stand­ing the phe­no­typic null hypothesis

tailcalledApr 20, 2022, 4:25 PM
16 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Covid 4/​21/​22: Var­i­ants Work­ing Overtime

ZviApr 21, 2022, 3:10 PM
40 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pr­ereg­is­tra­tion: Air Con­di­tioner Test

johnswentworthApr 21, 2022, 7:48 PM
109 points
64 comments9 min readLW link

Un­der­stand­ing the Merg­ing of Opinions with In­creas­ing In­for­ma­tion theorem

ViktoriaMalyasovaApr 21, 2022, 2:13 PM
13 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Are smart peo­ple’s per­sonal ex­pe­riences bi­ased against gen­eral in­tel­li­gence?

tailcalledApr 21, 2022, 7:25 PM
100 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] (When) do high-di­men­sional spaces have lin­ear paths down to lo­cal min­ima?

Thomas KwaApr 22, 2022, 3:35 PM
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Should I buy roofies from the dark­net?

MalmesburyApr 22, 2022, 3:40 PM
11 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

In­fra-Topology

DiffractorApr 22, 2022, 2:10 AM
35 points
1 comment17 min readLW link

Why “progress stud­ies” is interdisciplinary

jasoncrawfordApr 22, 2022, 9:58 PM
12 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Re­port like­li­hood ratios

Ege ErdilApr 23, 2022, 5:10 PM
80 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

The Con­sis­tency Mystery

FlaglandbaseApr 23, 2022, 8:05 AM
−2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Any­one Fa­mil­iar with Ground News?

jmhApr 24, 2022, 12:46 PM
2 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

In­tu­itions about solv­ing hard problems

Richard_NgoApr 25, 2022, 3:29 PM
92 points
23 comments6 min readLW link

Why pes­simism sounds smart

jasoncrawfordApr 25, 2022, 8:10 PM
74 points
15 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Con­ti­nen­tal Philos­o­phy as Un­der­grad­u­ate Mathematics

JanApr 26, 2022, 8:05 AM
13 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

[Link] Ev­i­dence of Fabri­cated Data in a Vi­tamin C trial by Paul E Marik et al in CHEST

KennyApr 27, 2022, 6:48 AM
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

A Parable Of Explainability

George3d6Apr 28, 2022, 4:46 PM
10 points
5 comments5 min readLW link
(www.epistem.ink)

Dis­cus­sion on Thomas Philip­pon’s pa­per on TFP growth be­ing linear

Arjun YadavApr 30, 2022, 2:25 PM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] How good is spend­ing?

tryactionsApr 30, 2022, 7:27 AM
5 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Nar­ra­tive Syncing

AnnaSalamonMay 1, 2022, 1:48 AM
117 points
46 comments7 min readLW link

How to be skep­ti­cal about med­i­ta­tion/​Buddhism

ViliamMay 1, 2022, 10:30 AM
69 points
39 comments2 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “Heart of Dark­ness” by Joseph Conrad

lsusrMay 1, 2022, 5:02 PM
−10 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How con­fi­dent are we that there are no Ex­tremely Ob­vi­ous Aliens?

Logan ZoellnerMay 1, 2022, 10:59 AM
56 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] A con­cep­tual frame­work for consciousness

Gunnar_ZarnckeMay 2, 2022, 1:05 AM
12 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What Would It Cost to Build a World-Class Dredg­ing Ves­sel in Amer­ica?

ZviMay 2, 2022, 5:47 PM
54 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

My thoughts on nan­otech­nol­ogy strat­egy re­search as an EA cause area

Ben_SnodinMay 2, 2022, 5:57 PM
32 points
0 comments42 min readLW link

[Question] What would be the im­pact of cheap en­ergy and stor­age?

Yair HalberstadtMay 3, 2022, 5:20 AM
5 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Monthly Shorts 4/​2022

CelerMay 3, 2022, 4:10 AM
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

Pre­dict­ing for charity

Austin ChenMay 2, 2022, 10:59 PM
43 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Steer the Sun?

ShayMay 4, 2022, 3:36 AM
2 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

What are the best ex­am­ples of catas­trophic re­source short­ages?

jasoncrawfordMay 4, 2022, 2:37 PM
35 points
14 comments5 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Covid 5/​5/​22: A Lack of Care

ZviMay 5, 2022, 3:10 PM
37 points
6 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Get­ting GPT-3 to pre­dict Me­tac­u­lus questions

MathiasKBMay 6, 2022, 6:01 AM
68 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a con­ve­nient way to make “sealed” pre­dic­tions?

Daniel KokotajloMay 6, 2022, 11:00 PM
32 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Div­ina­tion: Nine Black Doves

aphyerMay 6, 2022, 11:02 PM
41 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Sealed pre­dic­tions thread

Zach Stein-PerlmanMay 7, 2022, 6:00 PM
22 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Al­gorith­mic for­mal­iza­tion of FDT?

ShmiMay 8, 2022, 1:36 AM
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What does Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory say to do in im­perfect New­comb situ­a­tions?

Daniel_EthMay 7, 2022, 10:26 PM
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Notes from a con­ver­sa­tion with Ing. Agr. Adri­ana Balzarini

Pablo RepettoMay 8, 2022, 3:56 PM
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

De­mon­strat­ing MWI by in­terfer­ing hu­man simulations

Yair HalberstadtMay 8, 2022, 5:28 PM
14 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

Ele­men­tary In­fra-Bayesianism

JanMay 8, 2022, 12:23 PM
38 points
2 comments7 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

[Question] Long COVID risk: How to main­tain an up to date risk as­sess­ment so we can go back to nor­mal life?

SameerishereMay 8, 2022, 7:56 PM
19 points
34 comments1 min readLW link

[Scrib­ble] Bad Rea­sons Be­hind Differ­ent Sys­tems and a Story with No Good Moral

Rana DexsinMay 9, 2022, 5:21 AM
9 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Fight­ing in var­i­ous places for a re­ally long time

KatjaGraceMay 11, 2022, 1:50 AM
29 points
9 comments4 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Costs and benefits of am­nio­cen­te­sis for nor­mal pregnancies

bracesMay 13, 2022, 10:47 PM
13 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

How close to nu­clear war did we get over Cuba?

NathanBarnardMay 13, 2022, 7:58 PM
13 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing the Elec­tions with Deep Learn­ing—Part 1 - Results

Quentin ChenevierMay 14, 2022, 12:54 PM
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[link] The Lion and the Worm

TsviBTMay 16, 2022, 8:40 PM
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Cuban mis­sile crisis: the strate­gic context

NathanBarnardMay 16, 2022, 12:12 PM
18 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Div­ina­tion: Nine Black Doves Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyerMay 17, 2022, 12:34 AM
27 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

I just watched the Open C3 Sub­com­mit­tee Hear­ing on Uniden­ti­fied Ae­rial Phenom­ena (UFOs). Here’s a suc­cinct sum­mary and com­men­tary + some background

mako yassMay 18, 2022, 4:15 AM
23 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What’s up with the re­cent mon­key­pox cases?

johnswentworthMay 18, 2022, 10:06 PM
61 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

For­mula for a Shortage

ZviMay 19, 2022, 7:30 PM
54 points
9 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Be­ware boast­ing about non-ex­is­tent fore­cast­ing track records

Jotto999May 20, 2022, 7:20 PM
259 points
110 comments5 min readLW link

The Fu­ture of Nu­clear War

avturchinMay 21, 2022, 7:52 AM
33 points
1 comment34 min readLW link

An Agent Based Con­scious­ness Model (un­for­tu­nately it’s not com­putable)

Logan ZoellnerMay 21, 2022, 11:00 PM
8 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Wormy the Worm

River LewisMay 21, 2022, 3:34 PM
3 points
23 comments5 min readLW link
(heytraveler.substack.com)

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List

party girlMay 22, 2022, 3:31 AM
24 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

Philo­soph­i­cal con­sid­er­a­tions of ces­sa­tion of brain activity

clockworkMay 21, 2022, 3:18 PM
9 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

My Take On Philosophy

UtilityMonsterMay 22, 2022, 4:43 PM
2 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Bits of Op­ti­miza­tion Can Only Be Lost Over A Distance

johnswentworthMay 23, 2022, 6:55 PM
26 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Con­tra As­tral Codex Ten’s “On Sexy In-Laws”

Dalton MaberyMay 23, 2022, 10:53 PM
1 point
0 comments5 min readLW link

The No Free Lunch the­o­rems and their Razor

Adrià Garriga-alonsoMay 24, 2022, 6:40 AM
47 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

MERV Filters for Covid?

jefftkMay 25, 2022, 1:50 AM
35 points
11 comments4 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Visi­ble Home­less­ness in SF: A Quick Break­down of Causes

alyssavanceMay 25, 2022, 1:40 AM
197 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Manda­tory Post About Monkeypox

ZviMay 24, 2022, 8:00 PM
54 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Game The­ory and Part­ner Abuse

arielleplusMay 24, 2022, 8:03 PM
−10 points
4 comments16 min readLW link

[Question] What’s The Best Place to Look When You Have A Ques­tion About x?

Chloe ThompsonMay 25, 2022, 1:51 PM
39 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Re­quest for small text­book recommendations

Alex_AltairMay 25, 2022, 10:19 PM
11 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

How to get peo­ple to pro­duce more great ex­po­si­tion? Some strate­gies and their assumptions

riceissaMay 25, 2022, 10:30 PM
26 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Covid 5/​26/​22: I Guess I Should Re­spond To This Week’s Long Covid Study

ZviMay 26, 2022, 5:30 PM
46 points
5 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Can growth con­tinue?

jasoncrawfordMay 27, 2022, 4:19 PM
28 points
24 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (ii) LAVO

party girlMay 27, 2022, 4:45 PM
18 points
3 comments18 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

An aca­demic jour­nal is just a Twit­ter feed

David Hugh-JonesMay 27, 2022, 11:14 AM
13 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Grabby An­i­mals: Ob­ser­va­tion-se­lec­tion effects fa­vor the hy­poth­e­sis that UAP are an­i­mals which con­sist of the “field-mat­ter”:

avturchinMay 27, 2022, 9:27 AM
19 points
15 comments8 min readLW link

De­con­fus­ing Lan­dauer’s Principle

EuanMcLeanMay 27, 2022, 5:58 PM
44 points
12 comments15 min readLW link

New Water Qual­ity x Obe­sity Dataset Available

ElizabethMay 27, 2022, 7:50 PM
74 points
14 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

An in­quiry into the thoughts of twenty-five peo­ple in India

KatjaGraceMay 28, 2022, 8:30 AM
21 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Un­bear­able Light­ness of Web Vulnerabilities

aiiixiiiMay 29, 2022, 9:13 PM
29 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.theoreticalstructures.io)

Distributed Decisions

johnswentworthMay 29, 2022, 2:43 AM
65 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

No­tion tem­plate for per­sonal predictions

Arjun YadavMay 30, 2022, 5:47 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ceiling Air Purifier

jefftkMay 30, 2022, 7:20 PM
69 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-05-30

jasoncrawfordMay 30, 2022, 11:20 PM
18 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Is there any for­mal ar­gu­ment that cli­mate change needs to more ex­treme weather events?

ChristianKlMay 31, 2022, 9:01 AM
8 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Any prior work on mu­ti­a­gent dy­nam­ics for con­tin­u­ous dis­tri­bu­tions over agents?

Quintin PopeJun 1, 2022, 6:12 PM
10 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Prob­a­bil­ity that the Pres­i­dent would win elec­tion against a ran­dom adult cit­i­zen?

Daniel KokotajloJun 1, 2022, 8:38 PM
15 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (iii) Etiquette

party girlJun 3, 2022, 6:44 PM
7 points
1 comment8 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

[Question] Does quan­tum me­chan­ics pre­dict all the effects of rel­a­tivity ex­cept grav­ity?

EniScienJun 4, 2022, 1:52 PM
4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci June 2022: A God­dess Tried To Rein­car­nate Me Into A Fan­tasy World, But I In­sisted On Us­ing Data Science To Select An Op­ti­mal Com­bi­na­tion Of Cheat Skills!

abstractapplicJun 4, 2022, 1:28 AM
37 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

Quick Look: Asymp­tomatic Her­pes Shedding

ElizabethJun 4, 2022, 9:40 PM
37 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Rein­vent­ing the wheel

jasoncrawfordJun 4, 2022, 10:39 PM
78 points
13 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Some ques­tions I’ve been pon­der­ing...

Dalton MaberyJun 5, 2022, 4:21 AM
1 point
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How Does Cog­ni­tive Perfor­mance Trans­late to Real World Ca­pa­bil­ity?

DragonGodJun 7, 2022, 5:39 PM
5 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Stephen Wolfram’s ideas are un­der-appreciated

KennyJun 7, 2022, 8:09 PM
16 points
50 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Silly On­line Rules

Gunnar_ZarnckeJun 8, 2022, 8:40 PM
8 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

The “mind-body vi­cious cy­cle” model of RSI & back pain

Steven ByrnesJun 9, 2022, 12:30 PM
64 points
21 comments12 min readLW link

Book Re­view: How the World Be­came Rich

Davis KedroskyJun 9, 2022, 4:55 PM
14 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-06-08

jasoncrawfordJun 9, 2022, 7:13 PM
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Kol­mogorov’s AI Forecast

intersticeJun 10, 2022, 2:36 AM
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (v) The Fleur Room

party girlJun 10, 2022, 2:50 PM
8 points
1 comment14 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

Why the Kal­dor-Hicks crite­rion can be non-transitive

RupertJun 12, 2022, 5:26 PM
4 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

D&D.Sci June 2022 Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplicJun 13, 2022, 10:31 AM
29 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Who said some­thing like “The fact that putting 2 ap­ples next to 2 other ap­ples leads to there be­ing 4 ap­ples there has noth­ing to do with the fact that 2 + 2 = 4”?

hunterglennJun 13, 2022, 10:23 PM
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

Yes, AI re­search will be sub­stan­tially cur­tailed if a lab causes a ma­jor disaster

lcJun 14, 2022, 10:17 PM
96 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

Ge­or­gism, in theory

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 15, 2022, 3:20 PM
38 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-06-13

jasoncrawfordJun 15, 2022, 7:47 PM
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Se­cu­rity anal­y­sis of ‘cloud chem­istry labs’?

KennyJun 16, 2022, 4:06 PM
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a worked ex­am­ple of Ge­or­gian taxes?

DagonJun 16, 2022, 2:07 PM
8 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] “The mad­ness of re­duced med­i­cal di­ag­nos­tics” by Dynomight

KennyJun 16, 2022, 7:20 PM
16 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

BBC Fu­ture cov­ers progress studies

jasoncrawfordJun 16, 2022, 10:44 PM
20 points
6 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Fore­cast­ing Fu­sion Power

Daniel KokotajloJun 18, 2022, 12:04 AM
18 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

[Question] Why don’t we think we’re in the sim­plest uni­verse with in­tel­li­gent life?

ADifferentAnonymousJun 18, 2022, 3:05 AM
29 points
32 comments1 min readLW link

To what ex­tent have ideas and sci­en­tific dis­cov­er­ies got­ten harder to find?

lsusrJun 18, 2022, 7:15 AM
32 points
10 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] What’s the in­for­ma­tion value of gov­ern­ment hear­ings?

KennyJun 18, 2022, 5:13 PM
6 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The Malthu­sian Trap: An Ex­tremely Short Introduction

Davis KedroskyJun 19, 2022, 3:25 PM
5 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

[Linkpost] The im­por­tance of stu­pidity in sci­en­tific research

PatternJun 19, 2022, 5:17 AM
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(journals.biologists.com)

[Linkpost] The im­por­tance of stu­pidity in sci­en­tific research

PatternJun 19, 2022, 5:17 AM
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(journals.biologists.com)

Where I agree and dis­agree with Eliezer

paulfchristianoJun 19, 2022, 7:15 PM
777 points
205 comments20 min readLW link

Is This Thing Sen­tient, Y/​N?

Thane RuthenisJun 20, 2022, 6:37 PM
6 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-06-20

jasoncrawfordJun 21, 2022, 5:12 PM
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Sols­tice Movie Re­view: Sum­mer Wars

SebastianG Jun 22, 2022, 1:09 AM
22 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do I use caf­feine op­ti­mally?

randomstringJun 22, 2022, 5:59 PM
18 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

Air Con­di­tioner Test Re­sults & Discussion

johnswentworthJun 22, 2022, 10:26 PM
80 points
38 comments6 min readLW link

Worked Ex­am­ples of Shap­ley Values

lalaithionJun 24, 2022, 5:13 PM
68 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

Cracks in the Wall, Part I: The Conscious

siloJun 24, 2022, 6:29 PM
−3 points
28 comments12 min readLW link
(stephenfoster.substack.com)

[Link] Child­care : what the sci­ence says

Gunnar_ZarnckeJun 24, 2022, 9:45 PM
45 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(criticalscience.medium.com)

Iden­ti­fi­ca­tion of Nat­u­ral Modularity

Stephen FowlerJun 25, 2022, 3:05 PM
15 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Quick Sum­maries of Two Papers on Kant and Game Theory

Erich_GrunewaldJun 25, 2022, 10:25 AM
8 points
2 comments4 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

[Question] How “should” coun­ter­fac­tual pre­dic­tion mar­kets work?

eapiJun 25, 2022, 5:44 PM
9 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

My cur­rent take on In­ter­nal Fam­ily Sys­tems “parts”

Kaj_SotalaJun 26, 2022, 5:40 PM
67 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Dust The­ory vs Ruliad

svemirskiJun 26, 2022, 4:08 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

How do poor coun­tries get rich: some the­o­ries

NathanBarnardJun 26, 2022, 10:41 AM
8 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

What Diet Books Don’t Teach: A book re­view and a re­quest for more reading

Lone PineJun 28, 2022, 12:27 PM
22 points
34 comments4 min readLW link

Reflec­tions on Liv­ing in “Guess Cul­ture”

Dalton MaberyJun 28, 2022, 9:00 PM
13 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Limits to Legibility

Jan_KulveitJun 29, 2022, 5:42 PM
102 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

The table of differ­ent sam­pling as­sump­tions in anthropics

avturchinJun 29, 2022, 10:41 AM
26 points
3 comments12 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-06-29

jasoncrawfordJun 29, 2022, 9:33 PM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Covid 6/​30/​22: Vac­cine Up­date Update

ZviJun 30, 2022, 2:00 PM
32 points
6 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Track Record of Fu­tur­ists Seems … Fine

HoldenKarnofskyJun 30, 2022, 7:40 PM
91 points
23 comments12 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

On viewquakes

Dalton MaberyJun 30, 2022, 8:08 PM
6 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How to Nav­i­gate Eval­u­at­ing Poli­ti­cized Re­search?

Davis_KingsleyJul 1, 2022, 5:59 AM
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

One is (al­most) nor­mal in base π

Adam ScherlisJul 1, 2022, 4:05 AM
14 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(adam.scherlis.com)

Defin­ing Op­ti­miza­tion in a Deeper Way Part 1

J BostockJul 1, 2022, 2:03 PM
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Ex­am­ples of prac­ti­cal im­pli­ca­tions of Judea Pearl’s Causal­ity work

ChristianKlJul 1, 2022, 8:58 PM
23 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Paper: Fore­cast­ing world events with neu­ral nets

Jul 1, 2022, 7:40 PM
39 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Disarm­ing status

sanoJul 1, 2022, 8:00 PM
−4 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Liter­a­ture recom­men­da­tions July 2022

ChristianKlJul 2, 2022, 9:14 AM
16 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Na­ture ab­hors an im­mutable repli­ca­tor… usually

MSRayneJul 3, 2022, 3:08 PM
26 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

SOMA—A story about Consciousness

Johannes C. MayerJul 3, 2022, 4:46 AM
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Evolu­tion Doesn’t Have Feelings

UtilityMonsterJul 3, 2022, 5:13 PM
−1 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Five routes of ac­cess to sci­en­tific literature

DirectedEvolutionJul 3, 2022, 8:53 PM
13 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Toni Kurz and the In­san­ity of Climb­ing Mountains

GeneSmithJul 3, 2022, 8:51 PM
219 points
51 comments10 min readLW link

As­sorted thoughts about ab­strac­tion

Adam ZernerJul 5, 2022, 6:40 AM
16 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

How to de­stroy the uni­verse with a hypercomputer

Trevor CappalloJul 5, 2022, 7:05 PM
−3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Im­pe­rial Rus­sia was do­ing fine with­out the Soviets

Davis KedroskyJul 5, 2022, 10:24 PM
6 points
3 comments14 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

Un­der­stand­ing up­date­less­ness in the con­text of EDT and CDT

SMKJul 5, 2022, 11:05 PM
25 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Wealth as a source of tech­nolog­i­cal stag­na­tion?

alyssavanceJul 7, 2022, 5:46 AM
21 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

[Question] What one pa­per would you show to some­one to get them ex­cited about your field?

oh54321Jul 7, 2022, 2:55 AM
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

​Some Ad­ven­tures of a Cu­ri­ous Richard Feynman

Dalton MaberyJul 6, 2022, 11:11 PM
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

MATS Models

johnswentworthJul 9, 2022, 12:14 AM
84 points
5 comments16 min readLW link

Us­ing Ngram to es­ti­mate de­pres­sion prevalence over time

David GrossJul 9, 2022, 2:57 PM
10 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(www.pnas.org)

Ars D&D.sci: Mys­ter­ies of Mana

aphyerJul 9, 2022, 12:19 PM
34 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Neal Stephen­son’s “Ter­mi­na­tion Shock”

Tyler SimmonsJul 12, 2022, 12:07 AM
13 points
0 comments30 min readLW link
(www.words-and-dirt.com)

Defin­ing Op­ti­miza­tion in a Deeper Way Part 2

J BostockJul 11, 2022, 8:29 PM
7 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Rainmaking

WalterLJul 12, 2022, 12:42 AM
25 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-07-12

jasoncrawfordJul 12, 2022, 3:30 PM
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] How could the uni­verse be in­finitely large?

amaraiJul 13, 2022, 1:45 PM
0 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

A re­view of Nate Hilger’s The Par­ent Trap

David Hugh-JonesJul 15, 2022, 9:30 AM
15 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

High­lights from the mem­o­irs of Van­nevar Bush

jasoncrawfordJul 15, 2022, 6:08 PM
10 points
0 comments13 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A time-in­var­i­ant ver­sion of Laplace’s rule

Jul 15, 2022, 7:28 PM
63 points
5 comments17 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

Ma­chine Learn­ing Model Sizes and the Pa­ram­e­ter Gap [abridged]

Pablo VillalobosJul 18, 2022, 4:51 PM
20 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

How the ---- did Feyn­man Get Here !?

George3d6Jul 18, 2022, 9:43 AM
4 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(www.epistem.ink)

Without spe­cific coun­ter­mea­sures, the eas­iest path to trans­for­ma­tive AI likely leads to AI takeover

Ajeya CotraJul 18, 2022, 7:06 PM
310 points
89 comments84 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-07-19

jasoncrawfordJul 19, 2022, 8:50 PM
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Per­sonal fore­cast­ing ret­ro­spec­tive: 2020-2022

eliflandJul 21, 2022, 12:07 AM
31 points
3 comments8 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Defin­ing Op­ti­miza­tion in a Deeper Way Part 3

J BostockJul 20, 2022, 10:06 PM
8 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Don’t take the or­ga­ni­za­tional chart literally

lcJul 21, 2022, 12:56 AM
44 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

Wy­clif’s Dust: the miss­ing chapter

David Hugh-JonesJul 22, 2022, 6:27 PM
9 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Eat­ing Boogers

George3d6Jul 23, 2022, 11:20 AM
17 points
5 comments6 min readLW link
(www.epistem.ink)

[Question] Is there any ev­i­dence that hand­wash­ing does any­thing to pre­vent COVID?

mukashiJul 25, 2022, 7:34 AM
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

My Bit­coin Th­e­sis @2022 - Part 1

aysajanJul 25, 2022, 3:49 PM
6 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

Pro­tec­tion­ism in One Coun­try: How In­dus­trial Policy Worked in Canada

Davis KedroskyJul 25, 2022, 10:08 PM
5 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

Tech­noc­racy and the Space Age

jasoncrawfordJul 26, 2022, 11:14 PM
24 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The gen­er­al­ized Sier­pin­ski-Mazurk­iewicz the­o­rem.

Donald HobsonJul 29, 2022, 12:12 AM
11 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Com­par­ing Four Ap­proaches to In­ner Alignment

Lucas TeixeiraJul 29, 2022, 9:06 PM
33 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

Drexler’s Nan­otech Forecast

PeterMcCluskeyJul 30, 2022, 12:45 AM
26 points
28 comments3 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Let­ter from lead­ing Soviet Aca­demi­ci­ans to party and gov­ern­ment lead­ers of the Soviet Union re­gard­ing signs of de­cline and struc­tural prob­lems of the eco­nomic-poli­ti­cal sys­tem (1970)

M. Y. ZuoAug 1, 2022, 10:35 PM
20 points
10 comments16 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-02

jasoncrawfordAug 2, 2022, 5:03 PM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle: Early Access

ozziegooenAug 3, 2022, 7:48 PM
51 points
7 comments7 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als are Con­fus­ing be­cause of an On­tolog­i­cal Shift

Chris_LeongAug 5, 2022, 7:03 PM
17 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt is clos­ing due to CFTC chang­ing its mind

eigenAug 6, 2022, 3:34 AM
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus and medians

rossryAug 6, 2022, 3:34 AM
18 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Do meta-memes and meta-an­timemes ex­ist? e.g. ‘The map is not the ter­ri­tory’ is also a map

M. Y. ZuoAug 7, 2022, 1:17 AM
4 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

New­comb­ness of the Din­ing Philoso­phers Problem

Nathan1123Aug 6, 2022, 9:58 PM
10 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The need for certainty

Thomas McMurtryAug 5, 2022, 8:18 PM
2 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

The les­sons of Xanadu

jasoncrawfordAug 7, 2022, 5:59 PM
108 points
20 comments8 min readLW link
(jasoncrawford.org)

Care­ful with Caching

jefftkAug 7, 2022, 3:20 PM
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Paper read­ing as a Cargo Cult

jem-mosigAug 7, 2022, 7:50 AM
66 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Are ya win­ning, son?

Nathan1123Aug 9, 2022, 12:06 AM
14 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

How (not) to choose a re­search project

Aug 9, 2022, 12:26 AM
76 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-09

jasoncrawfordAug 9, 2022, 5:35 PM
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

An­nounc­ing: Mechanism De­sign for AI Safety—Read­ing Group

Rubi J. HudsonAug 9, 2022, 4:21 AM
17 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

The Medium Is The Bandage

party girlAug 10, 2022, 1:45 AM
11 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

What is es­ti­ma­tional pro­gram­ming? Squig­gle in context

QuinnAug 12, 2022, 6:39 PM
14 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] How to bet against civ­i­liza­tional ad­e­quacy?

Wei DaiAug 12, 2022, 11:33 PM
51 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

An ex­tended rocket al­ign­ment analogy

rememberAug 13, 2022, 6:22 PM
25 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

And the Rev­enues Are So Small

ZviAug 15, 2022, 1:00 PM
19 points
4 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] If a nuke is com­ing to­wards SF Bay can peo­ple bunker in BART tun­nels?

Pee DoomAug 15, 2022, 1:56 AM
15 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Cap­i­tal and in­equal­ity

NathanBarnardAug 15, 2022, 5:23 PM
7 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Covid 8/​11/​22: The End Is Never The End

ZviAug 11, 2022, 4:20 PM
28 points
11 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Post-mortem?

gwernAug 5, 2022, 4:32 PM
73 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

The longest train­ing run

Aug 17, 2022, 5:18 PM
68 points
11 comments9 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

[Question] Could the simu­la­tion ar­gu­ment also ap­ply to dreams?

Nathan1123Aug 17, 2022, 7:55 PM
4 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Con­crete Ad­vice for Form­ing In­side Views on AI Safety

Neel NandaAug 17, 2022, 10:02 PM
18 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

What’s up with the bad Meta pro­jects?

YitzAug 18, 2022, 5:34 AM
41 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-17

jasoncrawfordAug 17, 2022, 9:27 PM
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Covid 8/​18/​22: CDC Ad­mits Mistakes

ZviAug 18, 2022, 2:30 PM
46 points
8 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Spoons and My­ofas­cial Trig­ger Points

vitaliyaAug 17, 2022, 10:54 PM
5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Goal-di­rect­ed­ness: rel­a­tivis­ing complexity

Morgan_RogersAug 18, 2022, 9:48 AM
3 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

How to do the­o­ret­i­cal re­search, a per­sonal perspective

Mark XuAug 19, 2022, 7:41 PM
84 points
4 comments15 min readLW link

Can You Upload Your Mind & Live For­ever? From Kurzge­sagt—In a Nutshell

Noosphere89Aug 19, 2022, 7:32 PM
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Less Threat-Depen­dent Bar­gain­ing Solu­tions?? (3/​2)

DiffractorAug 20, 2022, 2:19 AM
69 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

The Loire Is Not Dry

jefftkAug 20, 2022, 1:40 PM
77 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Vague con­cepts, fam­ily re­sem­blance and cluster prop­er­ties

Q HomeAug 20, 2022, 10:21 AM
18 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

Re­view: Amus­ing Our­selves to Death

L Rudolf LAug 20, 2022, 9:13 PM
40 points
5 comments16 min readLW link
(www.strataoftheworld.com)

A First At­tempt to Dis­solve “Is Con­scious­ness Re­ducible?”

DragonGodAug 20, 2022, 11:39 PM
5 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Please (re)ex­plain your per­sonal jargon

Nathan Helm-BurgerAug 22, 2022, 2:30 PM
19 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-23

jasoncrawfordAug 23, 2022, 5:30 PM
7 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Sur­vey advice

KatjaGraceAug 24, 2022, 3:10 AM
92 points
10 comments3 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Case Against Digi­tal Sen­tience: A Summary

lucas11Aug 24, 2022, 5:59 PM
4 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness Ac­tu­ally Ex­plained: EC Theory

Casey B.Aug 24, 2022, 10:18 PM
19 points
69 comments1 min readLW link
(gdoc.pub)

Covid 8/​25/​22: What We Owe

ZviAug 25, 2022, 2:40 PM
33 points
3 comments19 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

An In­tro­duc­tion to Cur­rent The­o­ries of Consciousness

hohenheimAug 28, 2022, 5:55 PM
59 points
44 comments49 min readLW link

Who or­dered al­ign­ment’s ap­ple?

Eleni AngelouAug 28, 2022, 4:05 AM
6 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

More Clothes Over Time?

jefftkAug 28, 2022, 8:30 PM
30 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Se­quenc­ing Intro

jefftkAug 29, 2022, 5:50 PM
39 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

How much im­pact can any one man have?

GregorDeVillainAug 31, 2022, 10:26 AM
9 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-31

jasoncrawfordAug 31, 2022, 9:54 PM
13 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Enantiodromia

ChristianKlAug 31, 2022, 9:13 PM
38 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Covid 9/​1/​22: Meet the New Booster

ZviSep 1, 2022, 2:00 PM
41 points
6 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why was progress so slow in the past?

jasoncrawfordSep 1, 2022, 8:26 PM
53 points
31 comments6 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Monthly Shorts 8/​22

CelerSep 4, 2022, 2:30 AM
3 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

Break­ing New­comb’s Prob­lem with Non-Halt­ing states

SlimepriestessSep 4, 2022, 4:01 AM
16 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

[Ex­plo­ra­tory] What does it mean that an ex­per­i­ment is high bit?

Johannes C. MayerSep 5, 2022, 3:13 AM
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

(Link) I’m Miss­ing a Chunk of My Brain

mukashiSep 5, 2022, 2:10 AM
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nytimes.com)

The Power (and limits?) of Chunking

Nicholas / Heather KrossSep 6, 2022, 2:26 AM
7 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

On oxy­tocin-sen­si­tive neu­rons in au­di­tory cortex

Steven ByrnesSep 6, 2022, 12:54 PM
31 points
6 comments12 min readLW link

Re­jected Early Drafts of New­comb’s Problem

zahmahkiboSep 6, 2022, 7:04 PM
104 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

No, hu­man brains are not (much) more effi­cient than computers

Jesse HooglandSep 6, 2022, 1:53 PM
19 points
16 comments4 min readLW link
(www.jessehoogland.com)

[Question] In a lack of data, how should you weigh cre­dences in the­o­ret­i­cal physics’s The­o­ries of Every­thing, or TOEs?

Noosphere89Sep 7, 2022, 6:25 PM
7 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Shröd­inger’s lot­tery or: Why you are go­ing to live forever

Chase DowdellSep 7, 2022, 6:13 PM
1 point
2 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 9/​8/​22: Booster Boosting

ZviSep 8, 2022, 1:50 PM
34 points
9 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Progress links & tweets, 2022-09-08

jasoncrawfordSep 8, 2022, 8:43 PM
13 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Un­bounded util­ity func­tions and precommitment

MichaelStJulesSep 10, 2022, 4:16 PM
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] In fore­cast­ing, how do ac­cu­racy, cal­ibra­tion and re­li­a­bil­ity re­late to each other?

amaraiSep 11, 2022, 12:04 PM
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Fermi Para­dox: Iron Age Milky Way

Rofel WodringSep 11, 2022, 8:32 PM
−10 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als are brit­tle; use conditionals

SMKSep 15, 2022, 8:55 AM
17 points
1 comment16 min readLW link

Con­tem­po­rary Lin­guis­tics: A Per­spec­tive on Re­search and In­for­ma­tion Sharing

MinimanSep 12, 2022, 7:02 PM
1 point
5 comments3 min readLW link

Guessti­mate Al­gorithm for Med­i­cal Research

ElizabethSep 14, 2022, 5:30 PM
26 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Renor­mal­iza­tion: Why Big­ger is Simpler

tailcalledSep 14, 2022, 5:52 PM
30 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-09-14

jasoncrawfordSep 14, 2022, 11:21 PM
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Se­quenc­ing In­tro II: Adapters

jefftkSep 15, 2022, 3:30 AM
12 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What’s the longest a sen­tient ob­server could sur­vive in the Dark Era?

RaemonSep 15, 2022, 8:43 AM
33 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 9/​15/​22: Per­ma­nent Normal

ZviSep 15, 2022, 4:00 PM
32 points
9 comments20 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In­tel­li­gence failures and a the­ory of change for forecasting

NathanBarnardSep 15, 2022, 3:02 PM
5 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Septem­ber 2022: The Allo­ca­tion Helm

abstractapplicSep 16, 2022, 11:10 PM
31 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

Do bam­boos set them­selves on fire?

MalmesburySep 19, 2022, 3:34 PM
145 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

Gene drives: why the wait?

MetacelsusSep 19, 2022, 11:37 PM
116 points
53 comments3 min readLW link
(denovo.substack.com)

You Are Not Mea­sur­ing What You Think You Are Measuring

johnswentworthSep 20, 2022, 8:04 PM
308 points
38 comments8 min readLW link

An is­sue with MacAskill’s Ev­i­den­tial­ist’s Wager

Martín SotoSep 21, 2022, 10:02 PM
3 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Fake qual­ities of mind

Kaj_SotalaSep 22, 2022, 4:40 PM
53 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Ukraine Post #12

ZviSep 22, 2022, 2:40 PM
104 points
3 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 9/​22/​22: The Joe Bi­den Sings

ZviSep 22, 2022, 2:40 PM
15 points
17 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Method­olog­i­cal Ther­apy: An Agenda For Tack­ling Re­search Bottlenecks

Sep 22, 2022, 6:41 PM
54 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

“Free Will” in a Com­pu­ta­tional Universe

DragonGodSep 22, 2022, 9:25 PM
5 points
6 comments14 min readLW link

Ini­tial Thoughts on Dis­solv­ing “Could­ness”

DragonGodSep 22, 2022, 9:23 PM
6 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Why do som many things break in a 2 el­e­ment set?

Alok SinghSep 23, 2022, 6:30 AM
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(alok.github.io)

Am­bi­guity in Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Re­s­olu­tion is Harmful

aphyerSep 26, 2022, 4:22 PM
69 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

Tri­an­gle Opportunity

Alex BeymanSep 26, 2022, 8:42 PM
55 points
10 comments54 min readLW link

Re­view of Ex­am­ine.com’s vi­tamin write-ups

Sep 26, 2022, 11:40 PM
58 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

D&D.Sci Septem­ber 2022 Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplicSep 26, 2022, 10:19 PM
25 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

A Prince, a Pau­per, Power, Panama

Alok SinghSep 27, 2022, 7:10 AM
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(alok.github.io)

FDT is not di­rectly com­pa­rable to CDT and EDT

SMKSep 29, 2022, 2:42 PM
26 points
7 comments11 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-09-28

jasoncrawfordSep 28, 2022, 8:26 PM
13 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A Few Ter­rify­ing Facts About The Russo-Ukrainian War

Pee DoomSep 30, 2022, 9:34 PM
71 points
102 comments3 min readLW link

Are c-sec­tions un­der­rated?

bracesOct 1, 2022, 8:32 PM
47 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

The com­pu­ta­tional com­plex­ity of progress

MalmesburyOct 1, 2022, 9:50 PM
18 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Monthly Shorts 9/​22, and An Es­say in Defense of Technodeterminism

CelerOct 2, 2022, 4:10 PM
10 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

Iver­mectin: Much Less Than You Needed To Know

George3d6Oct 3, 2022, 3:02 PM
31 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(doyourownresearch.substack.com)

Quick notes on “mir­ror neu­rons”

Steven ByrnesOct 4, 2022, 5:39 PM
31 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Dep­re­cated: Some hu­mans are fit­ness maximizers

Shoshannah TekofskyOct 4, 2022, 7:38 PM
6 points
22 comments6 min readLW link

Depen­dency Tree For The Devel­op­ment Of Plate Tectonics

ElizabethOct 5, 2022, 10:40 PM
38 points
3 comments4 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-10-05

jasoncrawfordOct 5, 2022, 7:24 PM
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A blog post is a very long and com­plex search query to find fas­ci­nat­ing peo­ple and make them route in­ter­est­ing stuff to your inbox

Henrik KarlssonOct 5, 2022, 7:07 PM
75 points
10 comments11 min readLW link
(escapingflatland.substack.com)

Notes on Notes on the Syn­the­sis of Form

VaniverOct 6, 2022, 2:36 AM
20 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Foot­ball, quan­tum chro­mo­dy­nam­ics, figure skat­ing and statistics

MalmesburyOct 8, 2022, 7:46 PM
8 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

The Balto/​Togo the­ory of sci­en­tific development

ElizabethOct 9, 2022, 6:30 PM
64 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Clean­ing a Spoon is Complex

jefftkOct 9, 2022, 1:10 AM
20 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Wanna bet?

ThomasJOct 9, 2022, 9:26 PM
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

On the Beauty of Na­ture, and the Na­ture of Beauty

Alex BeymanOct 9, 2022, 9:47 PM
−2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Why So Many Cookie Ban­ners?

jefftkOct 10, 2022, 2:20 AM
35 points
28 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Six (and a half) in­tu­itions for KL divergence

CallumMcDougallOct 12, 2022, 9:07 PM
114 points
16 comments10 min readLW link
(www.perfectlynormal.co.uk)

[Question] Does biol­ogy re­li­ably find the global max­i­mum, or at least get close?

Noosphere89Oct 10, 2022, 8:55 PM
24 points
70 comments1 min readLW link

Why I think nu­clear war trig­gered by Rus­sian tac­ti­cal nukes in Ukraine is unlikely

Dave OrrOct 11, 2022, 6:30 PM
50 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

From tech­noc­racy to the counterculture

jasoncrawfordOct 11, 2022, 7:37 PM
28 points
1 comment26 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-10-12

jasoncrawfordOct 12, 2022, 4:59 PM
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Cal­ibra­tion of a thou­sand predictions

KatjaGraceOct 12, 2022, 8:50 AM
56 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Towards a com­pre­hen­sive study of po­ten­tial psy­cholog­i­cal causes of the or­di­nary range of vari­a­tion of af­fec­tive gen­der iden­tity in males

tailcalledOct 12, 2022, 9:10 PM
44 points
4 comments37 min readLW link

Towards a com­pre­hen­sive study of po­ten­tial psy­cholog­i­cal causes of the or­di­nary range of vari­a­tion of af­fec­tive gen­der iden­tity in males

tailcalledOct 12, 2022, 9:10 PM
44 points
4 comments37 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive VR Is Likely Com­ing Soon

jimrandomhOct 13, 2022, 6:25 AM
89 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

Weekly Non-Covid News #1 (10/​13/​22)

ZviOct 13, 2022, 3:40 PM
52 points
16 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 10/​13/​22: Just the Facts

ZviOct 13, 2022, 2:40 PM
28 points
7 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Feelings

Eris DiscordiaOct 13, 2022, 5:48 PM
9 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Luck based medicine: my re­sent­ful story of be­com­ing a med­i­cal miracle

ElizabethOct 16, 2022, 5:40 PM
428 points
87 comments12 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Age changes what you care about

DentinOct 16, 2022, 3:36 PM
134 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Sig­nifi­cance of the Lan­guage of Thought Hy­poth­e­sis?

DrFlaggstaffOct 16, 2022, 6:09 PM
1 point
3 comments1 min readLW link

Max­i­mal lot­ter­ies for value learning

ViktoriaMalyasovaOct 16, 2022, 11:44 PM
15 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Why Weren’t Hot Air Bal­loons In­vented Sooner?

Lost FuturesOct 18, 2022, 12:41 AM
107 points
52 comments6 min readLW link
(lostfutures.substack.com)

Max­i­mal Lot­tery-Lotteries

Scott GarrabrantOct 17, 2022, 8:39 PM
60 points
15 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Is the mean­ing of words cho­sen/​in­ter­preted to max­i­mize cor­re­la­tions with other rele­vant queries?

tailcalledOct 20, 2022, 10:03 AM
9 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

What is Con­scious­ness?

belkarxOct 19, 2022, 9:14 PM
1 point
2 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 10/​20/​22: Wait, We Did WHAT?

ZviOct 20, 2022, 9:50 PM
55 points
16 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Weekly Roundup #2

ZviOct 21, 2022, 12:10 PM
37 points
2 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The im­por­tance of study­ing sub­jec­tive experience

Q HomeOct 21, 2022, 8:43 AM
8 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Telic in­tu­itions across the sciences

mrcbarbierOct 22, 2022, 9:31 PM
3 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

Noth­ing.

rogersbaconOct 25, 2022, 4:33 PM
−10 points
4 comments6 min readLW link
(www.secretorum.life)

Beyond Kol­mogorov and Shannon

Oct 25, 2022, 3:13 PM
60 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

The Game of Antonyms

FaustifyOct 26, 2022, 7:26 PM
3 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Con­nec­tions be­tween Mind-Body Prob­lem & Civilizations

oblivionOct 24, 2022, 9:55 PM
−3 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Fu­til­ity of Religion

nmcOct 24, 2022, 7:42 PM
−1 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Covid 10/​27/​22: Another Ori­gin Story

ZviOct 27, 2022, 1:40 PM
32 points
1 comment13 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Why are prob­a­bil­ities rep­re­sented as real num­bers in­stead of ra­tio­nal num­bers?

Yaakov TOct 27, 2022, 11:23 AM
5 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Nash equil­ibria of sym­met­ric zero-sum games

Ege ErdilOct 27, 2022, 11:50 PM
14 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] Good psy­chol­ogy books/​books that con­tain good psy­cholog­i­cal mod­els?

shuffled-cantaloupeOct 27, 2022, 11:04 PM
1 point
1 comment1 min readLW link

Ukraine and the Crimea Question

ChristianKlOct 28, 2022, 12:26 PM
7 points
150 comments11 min readLW link

Rapid Test Throat Swab­bing?

jefftkOct 28, 2022, 4:30 PM
18 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Pon­der­ing com­pu­ta­tion in the real world

Adam ShaiOct 28, 2022, 3:57 PM
24 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

The So­cial Re­ces­sion: By the Numbers

antonomonOct 29, 2022, 6:45 PM
88 points
11 comments8 min readLW link
(novum.substack.com)

Don’t ex­pect your life part­ner to be bet­ter than your exes in more than one way: a math­e­mat­i­cal model

mddOct 29, 2022, 6:47 PM
8 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

«Boundaries», Part 3a: Defin­ing bound­aries as di­rected Markov blankets

Andrew_CritchOct 30, 2022, 6:31 AM
58 points
13 comments15 min readLW link

“Nor­mal” is the equil­ibrium state of past op­ti­miza­tion processes

Alex_AltairOct 30, 2022, 7:03 PM
77 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-11-01

jasoncrawfordNov 1, 2022, 5:48 PM
16 points
4 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Why is fiber good for you?

bracesNov 2, 2022, 2:04 AM
16 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Markets

eva_Nov 2, 2022, 1:24 AM
44 points
4 comments12 min readLW link

Mind is uncountable

Filip SondejNov 2, 2022, 11:51 AM
12 points
22 comments1 min readLW link

Far-UVC Light Up­date: No, LEDs are not around the cor­ner (tweet­storm)

DavidmanheimNov 2, 2022, 12:57 PM
70 points
27 comments4 min readLW link
(twitter.com)

“Are Ex­per­i­ments Pos­si­ble?” Seeds of Science call for reviewers

rogersbaconNov 2, 2022, 8:05 PM
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 11/​3/​22: Ask­ing Forgiveness

ZviNov 3, 2022, 1:50 PM
23 points
3 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Video] How hav­ing Fast Fourier Trans­forms sooner could have helped with Nu­clear Disar­ma­ment—Veritaserum

mako yassNov 3, 2022, 9:04 PM
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Monthly Shorts 10/​22

CelerNov 4, 2022, 4:30 PM
12 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

Weekly Roundup #4

ZviNov 4, 2022, 3:00 PM
42 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

A new place to dis­cuss cog­ni­tive sci­ence, ethics and hu­man alignment

Daniel_FriedrichNov 4, 2022, 2:34 PM
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Fol­low up to med­i­cal miracle

ElizabethNov 4, 2022, 6:00 PM
69 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

What is epi­ge­net­ics?

MetacelsusNov 6, 2022, 1:24 AM
68 points
4 comments6 min readLW link
(denovo.substack.com)

Eu­daimo­nia, Voltron, and The Multi-Di­men­sional Cri­sis Revolution

Jarred FilmerNov 6, 2022, 1:03 AM
22 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

What’s the Deal with Elon Musk and Twit­ter?

ZviNov 7, 2022, 1:50 PM
60 points
11 comments31 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Is there some kind of back­log or de­lay for data cen­ter AI?

trevorNov 7, 2022, 8:18 AM
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Google Search as a Washed Up Ser­vice Dog: “I HALP!”

ShmiNov 7, 2022, 7:02 AM
20 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactability

Scott GarrabrantNov 7, 2022, 5:39 AM
36 points
4 comments11 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “Sta­tion Eleven” by Emily St. John Mandel

lsusrNov 7, 2022, 5:56 AM
16 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The op­ti­mal an­gle for a so­lar boiler is differ­ent than for a so­lar panel

Yair HalberstadtNov 10, 2022, 10:32 AM
42 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

What it’s like to dis­sect a cadaver

Alok SinghNov 10, 2022, 6:40 AM
178 points
18 comments5 min readLW link
(alok.github.io)

Mastodon Link­ing Norms

jefftkNov 10, 2022, 3:10 PM
9 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Covid 11/​10/​22: Into the Background

ZviNov 10, 2022, 1:40 PM
31 points
5 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of prob­lems that were caused by in­tel­li­gence, that couldn’t be solved with in­tel­li­gence?

Peter O'MalleyNov 10, 2022, 2:04 AM
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

Weekly Roundup #5

ZviNov 11, 2022, 4:20 PM
33 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

“Ru­de­ness”, a use­ful co­or­di­na­tion mechanic

RaemonNov 11, 2022, 10:27 PM
49 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Some re­search ideas in forecasting

JsevillamolNov 15, 2022, 7:47 PM
35 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

We need bet­ter pre­dic­tion markets

eigenNov 15, 2022, 4:54 AM
9 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

En­tropy Scal­ing And In­trin­sic Me­mory

Nov 15, 2022, 6:11 PM
17 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

When should we be sur­prised that an in­ven­tion took “so long”?

jasoncrawfordNov 16, 2022, 8:04 PM
32 points
9 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Why are prof­itable com­pa­nies lay­ing off staff?

Yair HalberstadtNov 17, 2022, 6:19 AM
15 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

log­i­cal vs in­dex­i­cal dignity

Tamsin LeakeNov 19, 2022, 12:43 PM
25 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

[Question] How does acausal trade work in a de­ter­minis­tic mul­ti­verse?

sisyphusNov 19, 2022, 1:50 AM
2 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Crypto built on a foun­da­tion of ig­no­rance about In­for­ma­tion Asym­me­try?

trevorNov 18, 2022, 7:43 PM
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Re­view: Bayesian Statis­tics the Fun Way by Will Kurt

mattoNov 19, 2022, 6:52 PM
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory but also Ghosts

eva_Nov 20, 2022, 1:24 PM
17 points
21 comments10 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-11-22

jasoncrawfordNov 22, 2022, 5:39 PM
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

My take on Ja­cob Can­nell’s take on AGI safety

Steven ByrnesNov 28, 2022, 2:01 PM
61 points
13 comments30 min readLW link

[Question] When do you vi­su­al­ize (or not) while do­ing math?

Alex_AltairNov 23, 2022, 8:15 PM
20 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Meme Dialects

jefftkNov 23, 2022, 9:30 PM
26 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

The Geo­met­ric Expectation

Scott GarrabrantNov 23, 2022, 6:05 PM
97 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 11/​24/​22: Thanks for Good Health

ZviNov 24, 2022, 1:00 PM
26 points
4 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Open tech­ni­cal prob­lem: A Quinean proof of Löb’s the­o­rem, for an eas­ier car­toon guide

Andrew_CritchNov 24, 2022, 9:16 PM
43 points
34 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] His­tor­i­cal ex­am­ples of peo­ple gain­ing un­usual cog­ni­tive abil­ities?

Nicholas / Heather KrossNov 24, 2022, 7:01 PM
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Geo­met­ric Ex­plo­ra­tion, Arith­metic Exploitation

Scott GarrabrantNov 24, 2022, 3:36 PM
53 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Take part in our gi­ant study of cog­ni­tive abil­ities and get a cus­tomized re­port of your strengths and weak­nesses!

spencergNov 25, 2022, 4:28 PM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.guidedtrack.com)

The many types of blog posts

Adam ZernerNov 26, 2022, 3:57 AM
10 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Why square er­rors?

AprillionNov 26, 2022, 1:40 PM
40 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] As­sum­ing that at least one re­li­gion is true, what would you ex­pect it to be?

risediveNov 26, 2022, 8:34 AM
−9 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

The First Filter

Nov 26, 2022, 7:37 PM
55 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Always know where your ab­strac­tions break

lsusrNov 27, 2022, 6:32 AM
74 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Some thoughts about nat­u­ral com­pu­ta­tion and interactions

Adam ShaiNov 27, 2022, 6:15 PM
11 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

[Question] About probabilities

mikbpNov 27, 2022, 8:19 AM
5 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Cur­rent Trends in Eco­nomics and their Shortcoming

joshleventNov 28, 2022, 7:36 PM
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-11-29

jasoncrawfordNov 29, 2022, 8:54 PM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Bi­ases are en­g­ines of cognition

Nov 30, 2022, 4:47 PM
41 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 12/​1/​22: China Protests

ZviDec 1, 2022, 5:10 PM
38 points
2 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Brun’s the­o­rem and sieve theory

Ege ErdilDec 2, 2022, 8:57 PM
24 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

D&D.Sci De­cem­ber 2022: The Boojumologist

abstractapplicDec 2, 2022, 11:39 PM
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Log­i­cal in­duc­tion for soft­ware engineers

Alex FlintDec 3, 2022, 7:55 PM
124 points
2 comments27 min readLW link

Finite Fac­tored Sets in Pictures

Magdalena WacheDec 11, 2022, 6:49 PM
148 points
31 comments12 min readLW link

A Ten­ta­tive Timeline of The Near Fu­ture (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability

YitzDec 5, 2022, 5:33 AM
26 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der’s “Iver­mectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know”

RaemonDec 5, 2021, 5:43 AM
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link2 reviews
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

Nook Nature

Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)Dec 5, 2022, 4:10 AM
54 points
17 comments10 min readLW link

Monthly Shorts 11/​22

CelerDec 5, 2022, 7:30 AM
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

[ASoT] Prob­a­bil­ity In­fects Con­cepts it Touches

Ulisse MiniDec 7, 2022, 1:48 AM
10 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Peter Thiel on Tech­nolog­i­cal Stag­na­tion and Out of Touch Rationalists

Matt GoldenbergDec 7, 2022, 1:15 PM
8 points
25 comments1 min readLW link
(youtu.be)

[Question] Where’s the eco­nomic in­cen­tive for wok­ism com­ing from?

ValentineDec 8, 2022, 11:28 PM
−6 points
97 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] Wave­func­tions: from Lin­ear Alge­bra to Spinors

senDec 7, 2022, 12:44 PM
11 points
12 comments1 min readLW link
(paperclip.substack.com)

Sys­tems of Survival

VaniverDec 9, 2022, 5:13 AM
52 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Monthly Roundup #1

ZviDec 9, 2022, 5:10 PM
30 points
6 comments21 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Do You Have an In­ter­nal Monologue?

belkarxDec 9, 2022, 3:04 AM
22 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

A dy­nam­i­cal sys­tems primer for en­tropy and optimization

Alex_AltairDec 10, 2022, 12:13 AM
29 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Will Man­i­fold Mar­kets/​Me­tac­u­lus have built-in sup­port for re­flec­tive la­tent vari­ables by 2025?

tailcalledDec 10, 2022, 1:55 PM
32 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] A thought experiment

sisyphusDec 10, 2022, 5:23 AM
3 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Rev­ers­ing a quan­tum simu­la­tion on the plane­tary scale

MythopoeistDec 10, 2022, 8:26 PM
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

For­mal­iza­tion as sus­pen­sion of intuition

adamShimiDec 11, 2022, 3:16 PM
54 points
18 comments1 min readLW link
(epistemologicalvigilance.substack.com)

Con­fus­ing the goal and the path

adamShimiDec 12, 2022, 4:42 PM
43 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(epistemologicalvigilance.substack.com)

Psy­cholog­i­cal Di­sor­ders and Problems

Dec 12, 2022, 6:15 PM
35 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci De­cem­ber 2022 Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplicDec 12, 2022, 9:21 PM
10 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Log-odds are bet­ter than Probabilities

Robert_AIZIDec 12, 2022, 8:10 PM
19 points
4 comments4 min readLW link
(aizi.substack.com)

[In­com­plete] What is Com­pu­ta­tion Any­way?

DragonGodDec 14, 2022, 4:17 PM
7 points
1 comment13 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

[Question] Stan­ley Meyer’s wa­ter fuel cell

mikbpDec 14, 2022, 9:19 PM
2 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Robin Han­son’s “Hu­mans are Early”

RaemonDec 14, 2021, 10:07 PM
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.overcomingbias.com)

Ba­sic build­ing blocks of de­pen­dent type theory

Thomas KehrenbergDec 15, 2022, 2:54 PM
39 points
4 comments13 min readLW link

Two Dog­mas of LessWrong

omnizoidDec 15, 2022, 5:56 PM
−6 points
142 comments69 min readLW link

Beyond the mo­ment of invention

jasoncrawfordDec 16, 2022, 8:18 PM
35 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Pre­dic­tive Pro­cess­ing, Hetero­sex­u­al­ity and Delu­sions of Grandeur

lsusrDec 17, 2022, 7:37 AM
30 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Why Are Women Hot?

Jacob FalkovichDec 18, 2022, 11:20 PM
20 points
12 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] Can we, in prin­ci­ple, know the mea­sure of coun­ter­fac­tual quan­tum branches?

sisyphusDec 18, 2022, 10:07 PM
1 point
15 comments1 min readLW link

Slick hy­per­finite Ram­sey the­ory proof

Alok SinghDec 19, 2022, 8:40 AM
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(alok.github.io)

Con­di­tions for Su­per­ra­tional­ity-mo­ti­vated Co­op­er­a­tion in a one-shot Pri­soner’s Dilemma

Jim BuhlerDec 19, 2022, 3:00 PM
11 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Fic­tion] Un­spo­ken Stone

Gordon Seidoh WorleyDec 20, 2022, 5:11 AM
19 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Fibromyal­gia, Pain & De­pres­sion. How much is due to phys­i­cal mis­al­ign­ment?

leggiOct 29, 2019, 2:58 PM
7 points
4 comments18 min readLW link

Should the­o­ries have a con­trol group

George3d6Apr 24, 2020, 2:45 PM
5 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

A Book Review

Zack_M_DavisApr 28, 2020, 5:43 PM
15 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(unremediatedgender.space)

In­di­vi­d­ual Ra­tion­al­ity Needn’t Gen­er­al­ize to Ra­tional Consensus

Akshat MahajanMay 4, 2020, 10:53 PM
42 points
17 comments4 min readLW link

Kids and Mo­ral Agency

jefftkMay 8, 2020, 12:50 PM
30 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Nihilism doesn’t matter

B JacobsMay 21, 2020, 6:19 PM
7 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

The Valley of Bad Theory

johnswentworthOct 6, 2018, 3:06 AM
64 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Will AI un­dergo dis­con­tin­u­ous progress?

Sammy MartinFeb 21, 2020, 10:16 PM
26 points
21 comments20 min readLW link

Coron­avirus as a test-run for X-risks

Sammy MartinJun 13, 2020, 9:00 PM
69 points
10 comments18 min readLW link

Ed­u­ca­tion 2.0 — A brand new ed­u­ca­tion system

aryanJul 15, 2020, 10:09 AM
−8 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Mu­si­cal Outgroups

eapacheJul 19, 2020, 10:55 PM
9 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

The abrupt­ness of nu­clear weapons

paulfchristianoFeb 25, 2018, 5:40 PM
47 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

Se­cu­rity Mind­set and Or­di­nary Paranoia

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 25, 2017, 5:53 PM
98 points
24 comments29 min readLW link

Self-fulfilling correlations

PhilGoetzAug 26, 2010, 9:07 PM
144 points
50 comments3 min readLW link

Life at Three Tails of the Bell Curve

lsusrJun 27, 2020, 8:49 AM
63 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Gears in understanding

ValentineMay 12, 2017, 12:36 AM
159 points
38 comments10 min readLW link

What can the prin­ci­pal-agent liter­a­ture tell us about AI risk?

apcFeb 8, 2020, 9:28 PM
102 points
31 comments16 min readLW link

In­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8resMay 9, 2019, 7:16 PM
68 points
22 comments5 min readLW link

Science like a chef

Adam ZernerFeb 8, 2018, 9:23 PM
32 points
17 comments3 min readLW link

How Doomed are Large Or­ga­ni­za­tions?

ZviJan 21, 2020, 12:20 PM
76 points
42 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Sepa­ra­tion of Concerns

abramdemskiMay 23, 2019, 9:47 PM
66 points
30 comments6 min readLW link

Six Plau­si­ble Meta-Eth­i­cal Alternatives

Wei DaiAug 6, 2014, 12:04 AM
81 points
36 comments3 min readLW link

The Sim­ple Math of Everything

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 17, 2007, 10:42 PM
84 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

1001 Pre­dic­tionBook Nights

gwernOct 8, 2011, 4:04 PM
72 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

News ⊂ Advertising

lsusrJun 22, 2020, 7:19 PM
40 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

“But that’s your job”: why or­gani­sa­tions can work

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 5, 2020, 12:25 PM
71 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

What is a School?

ZviMar 13, 2020, 10:00 PM
51 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Franken­stein De­lenda Est

eapacheJul 10, 2020, 2:38 PM
11 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Fight the Power

Jacob FalkovichJun 22, 2020, 2:19 AM
23 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Con­figu­ra­tions and Amplitude

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 11, 2008, 3:14 AM
59 points
390 comments10 min readLW link

No One Knows What Science Doesn’t Know

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 25, 2007, 11:47 PM
77 points
107 comments3 min readLW link

What Botswana Can Teach Us About Poli­ti­cal Stability

Samo BurjaMay 9, 2019, 6:30 PM
40 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Joint Configurations

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 11, 2008, 5:00 AM
63 points
40 comments4 min readLW link

Noisy Poll Re­sults And Rep­tilian Mus­lim Cli­ma­tol­o­gists from Mars

Scott AlexanderApr 12, 2013, 10:49 AM
38 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

An­gry Atoms

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 31, 2008, 12:28 AM
57 points
60 comments4 min readLW link

Bleach

jefftkMar 4, 2020, 3:20 AM
32 points
2 comments3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Knowl­edge is Freedom

Scott GarrabrantFeb 9, 2018, 5:24 AM
31 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

Form Your Own Opinions

Ben PaceApr 28, 2018, 7:50 PM
33 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Lay­ers of Ex­per­tise and the Curse of Curiosity

GyrodiotFeb 12, 2019, 11:41 PM
19 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

So­phie Grouchy on A Build-Break Model of Cooperation

weftMay 25, 2018, 2:55 PM
24 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(sophiegrouchy.wordpress.com)

How to pick your categories

[deleted]Nov 11, 2010, 3:13 PM
78 points
22 comments6 min readLW link

Me­gapro­ject management

ryan_bJan 11, 2019, 5:08 PM
55 points
11 comments5 min readLW link1 review

Burnout: What it is and how to Treat it.

ElizabethNov 7, 2018, 10:02 PM
49 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?

Ben PaceOct 10, 2019, 10:11 PM
40 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

On Defense Mechanisms

QuaerendoMar 4, 2018, 6:53 PM
25 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

The Three Stages Of Model Development

katerinjoFeb 22, 2018, 2:33 PM
17 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

A vot­ing the­ory primer for rationalists

Jameson QuinnApr 12, 2018, 3:15 PM
207 points
96 comments17 min readLW link2 reviews

In­tel­lec­tual Hip­sters and Meta-Contrarianism

Scott AlexanderSep 13, 2010, 9:36 PM
333 points
368 comments8 min readLW link

Cred­i­bil­ity of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2

Mar 7, 2020, 2:00 AM
224 points
119 comments6 min readLW link1 review

Lizard Jock­ey­ing for Fun and Profit

ialdabaothNov 10, 2017, 6:51 PM
24 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Me­mory, nu­tri­tion, mo­ti­va­tion, and genes

PhilGoetzFeb 26, 2013, 5:25 AM
24 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Gary Taubes, Part 2: Atk­ins Redux

ChrisHallquistDec 30, 2013, 12:58 AM
7 points
191 comments4 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Gary Taubes, Part 3: Did the US Govern­ment Give Us Ab­surd Ad­vice About Su­gar?

ChrisHallquistDec 30, 2013, 12:58 AM
8 points
153 comments6 min readLW link

Prospect­ing for Con­cep­tual Holes

lsusrOct 30, 2019, 8:34 AM
69 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Hy­po­thet­i­cals: The Direct Ap­pli­ca­tion Fallacy

Chris_LeongMay 9, 2018, 2:23 PM
21 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

En­tan­gled Truths, Con­ta­gious Lies

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 15, 2008, 11:39 PM
84 points
42 comments4 min readLW link

Is the World Get­ting Bet­ter? A brief sum­mary of re­cent debate

ErickBallFeb 6, 2019, 5:38 PM
35 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(capx.co)

How to Un­der­stand and Miti­gate Risk

Matt GoldenbergMar 12, 2019, 10:14 AM
55 points
30 comments16 min readLW link

“Every­thing is Cor­re­lated”: An An­thol­ogy of the Psy­chol­ogy Debate

gwernApr 27, 2019, 1:48 PM
40 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Cat­e­gories: mod­els of models

countedblessingsOct 9, 2019, 2:45 AM
49 points
18 comments12 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy as low-en­ergy approximation

Charlie SteinerFeb 5, 2019, 7:34 PM
39 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How Can Peo­ple Eval­u­ate Com­plex Ques­tions Con­sis­tently?

ElizabethAug 26, 2019, 8:33 PM
46 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

How Should We Cri­tique Re­search? A De­ci­sion Perspective

gwernJul 14, 2019, 10:51 PM
46 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

In­tel­lec­tual Dark Matter

Samo BurjaJul 16, 2019, 3:20 PM
43 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Hearsay, Dou­ble Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates

Mass_DriverFeb 16, 2012, 10:31 PM
68 points
107 comments6 min readLW link

Defin­ing “An­timeme”

lsusrDec 26, 2019, 9:35 AM
16 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Peck­ing Order and Flight Leadership

sarahconstantinApr 29, 2019, 8:30 PM
43 points
18 comments3 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

Minor, per­spec­tive chang­ing facts

Stuart_ArmstrongApr 22, 2013, 7:01 PM
58 points
158 comments1 min readLW link

What Are Prob­a­bil­ities, Any­way?

Wei DaiDec 11, 2009, 12:25 AM
45 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

Com­plete Class: Con­se­quen­tial­ist Foundations

abramdemskiJul 11, 2018, 1:57 AM
50 points
34 comments13 min readLW link

Cor­re­spon­dence vi­su­al­iza­tions for differ­ent in­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8resMay 10, 2019, 5:10 PM
42 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Ac­ti­va­tion En­er­gies and Uncertainty

whpearsonNov 1, 2017, 10:23 AM
20 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The Mean­ing of Right

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 29, 2008, 1:28 AM
50 points
152 comments23 min readLW link

Set­ting Up Metaethics

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 28, 2008, 2:25 AM
22 points
34 comments4 min readLW link

Chang­ing Your Metaethics

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 27, 2008, 12:36 PM
43 points
21 comments5 min readLW link

Is Mo­ral­ity Given?

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 6, 2008, 8:12 AM
31 points
100 comments8 min readLW link

Mo­ral Complexities

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 4, 2008, 6:43 AM
27 points
40 comments1 min readLW link

The Be­drock of Fairness

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 3, 2008, 6:00 AM
47 points
103 comments5 min readLW link

Could Any­thing Be Right?

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 18, 2008, 7:19 AM
52 points
39 comments6 min readLW link

This Ter­ri­tory Does Not Exist

ikeAug 13, 2020, 12:30 AM
7 points
199 comments7 min readLW link

Many-wor­lds ver­sus dis­crete knowledge

jessicataAug 13, 2020, 6:35 PM
20 points
27 comments1 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

[Link] “Fewer than X% of Amer­i­cans know Y”

NisanOct 10, 2012, 4:59 PM
60 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

When (Not) To Use Probabilities

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 23, 2008, 10:58 AM
49 points
44 comments6 min readLW link

How does per­son­al­ity vary across US cities?

JonahSDec 20, 2016, 8:00 AM
66 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing util­ity func­tions to hu­mans con­sid­ered harmful

Kaj_SotalaFeb 3, 2010, 7:22 PM
36 points
116 comments5 min readLW link

[Link] A gen­tle video in­tro­duc­tion to game the­ory

[deleted]Dec 13, 2011, 8:52 AM
46 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Real­ity has a sur­pris­ing amount of detail

jsalvatierMay 13, 2017, 8:02 PM
65 points
24 comments1 min readLW link
(johnsalvatier.org)

Real­ity is weirdly normal

Rob BensingerAug 25, 2013, 7:29 PM
55 points
81 comments5 min readLW link

Univer­sal Law

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 29, 2007, 6:41 AM
89 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Acausal romance

lukeprogFeb 25, 2012, 9:13 AM
39 points
37 comments1 min readLW link

Con­fused as to use­ful­ness of ‘con­scious­ness’ as a concept

KnaveOfAllTradesJul 13, 2014, 11:01 AM
54 points
230 comments7 min readLW link

Test­ing the Effi­cacy of Disagree­ment Re­s­olu­tion Tech­niques (and a Pro­posal for Test­ing Dou­ble Crux)

Ronny FernandezOct 21, 2019, 10:57 PM
35 points
4 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] What au­thors con­sis­tently give ac­cu­rate pic­tures of com­plex top­ics they dis­cuss?

seezAug 21, 2019, 12:09 AM
34 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

To what de­gree do you model peo­ple as agents?

Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) Aug 25, 2013, 7:29 PM
47 points
133 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Hard to find fac­tors mess­ing up ex­per­i­ments: Ex­am­ples?

HazardNov 15, 2019, 5:46 PM
32 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

In­spec­tion Para­dox as a Driver of Group Separation

ShmiAug 17, 2019, 9:47 PM
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

By de­fault, avoid am­bigu­ous dis­tant situations

Stuart_ArmstrongMay 21, 2019, 2:48 PM
33 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

The Do­main of Your Utility Function

Peter_de_BlancJun 23, 2009, 4:58 AM
42 points
99 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How do we iden­tify bot­tle­necks to sci­en­tific and tech­nolog­i­cal progress?

NaiveTortoiseDec 31, 2018, 8:21 PM
31 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

A hun­dred Shakespeares

Stuart_ArmstrongDec 11, 2018, 11:11 PM
29 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The State of Affairs

Jacob FalkovichMay 3, 2019, 4:18 PM
33 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

Nat­u­ral Laws Are De­scrip­tions, not Rules

pragmatistAug 8, 2012, 4:27 AM
39 points
236 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] What’s your big idea?

Gordon Seidoh WorleyOct 18, 2019, 3:47 PM
30 points
64 comments1 min readLW link

Is That Your True Re­jec­tion? by Eliezer Yud­kowsky @ Cato Unbound

XiXiDuSep 7, 2011, 6:27 PM
44 points
83 comments1 min readLW link

Episte­mol­ogy and the Psy­chol­ogy of Hu­man Judgment

badgerMay 28, 2011, 5:15 AM
44 points
9 comments11 min readLW link

An Agent is a Wor­ldline in Teg­mark V

komponistoJul 12, 2018, 5:12 AM
24 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Risk aver­sion does not ex­plain peo­ple’s bet­ting behaviours

Stuart_ArmstrongAug 20, 2012, 12:38 PM
19 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

Risk is not em­piri­cally cor­re­lated with return

jsalvatierNov 22, 2010, 5:31 AM
11 points
28 comments2 min readLW link

Risk of Mass Hu­man Suffer­ing /​ Ex­tinc­tion due to Cli­mate Emer­gency

willfranksMar 14, 2019, 6:32 PM
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Risk aver­sion vs. con­cave util­ity function

dvasyaJan 31, 2012, 6:25 AM
3 points
35 comments3 min readLW link

Risk and un­cer­tainty: A false di­chotomy?

MichaelAJan 18, 2020, 3:09 AM
3 points
9 comments20 min readLW link

[Question] How can guessti­mates work?

Bird ConceptJul 10, 2019, 7:33 PM
24 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Levels of AI Self-Im­prove­ment

avturchinApr 29, 2018, 11:45 AM
11 points
0 comments39 min readLW link

Distinct Configurations

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 12, 2008, 4:42 AM
54 points
24 comments6 min readLW link

Col­lapse Postulates

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 9, 2008, 7:49 AM
47 points
65 comments3 min readLW link

De­co­her­ence is Simple

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 6, 2008, 7:44 AM
57 points
61 comments11 min readLW link

De­co­her­ence is Falsifi­able and Testable

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 7, 2008, 7:54 AM
40 points
42 comments9 min readLW link

Quan­tum Non-Realism

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 8, 2008, 5:27 AM
48 points
41 comments8 min readLW link

Quan­tum com­put­ing for the de­ter­mined (Link)

XiXiDuJun 13, 2011, 5:42 PM
23 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Quan­tum Joint Con­figu­ra­tion ar­ti­cle: need help from physicists

mwenglerDec 22, 2010, 6:32 PM
25 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum Me­chan­ics, Noth­ing to do with Consciousness

Donald HobsonNov 26, 2018, 6:59 PM
10 points
27 comments3 min readLW link

The In­spec­tion Para­dox is Everywhere

Chris_LeongNov 15, 2018, 10:55 AM
24 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(allendowney.blogspot.com)

The Web Browser is Not Your Client (But You Don’t Need To Know That)

ErrorApr 22, 2016, 12:12 AM
44 points
47 comments7 min readLW link

A Cri­tique of Lev­er­age Re­search’s Con­nec­tion Theory

Peter WildefordSep 20, 2012, 4:28 AM
43 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Con­nec­tion The­ory Has Less Than No Evidence

WilliamJamesAug 1, 2014, 10:17 AM
30 points
50 comments2 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty: a re­jec­tion of the MMEU rule

So8resAug 26, 2014, 3:03 AM
40 points
9 comments15 min readLW link

Beyond Rea­son­able Doubt? - Richard Dawk­ins [link]

Dreaded_AnomalyFeb 10, 2012, 2:28 AM
33 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Hier­ar­chy and wings

BenquoMay 6, 2019, 6:39 PM
25 points
22 comments2 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

On See­ing Through ‘On See­ing Through: A Unified The­ory’: A Unified Theory

gwernJun 15, 2019, 6:57 PM
26 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

To un­der­stand, study edge cases

ShmiMar 2, 2019, 9:18 PM
25 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Ev­i­den­tial De­ci­sion The­ory, Selec­tion Bias, and Refer­ence Classes

Qiaochu_YuanJul 8, 2013, 5:16 AM
34 points
128 comments6 min readLW link

Over­con­fi­dent Pessimism

lukeprogNov 24, 2012, 12:47 AM
37 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

Analog­i­cal Rea­son­ing and Creativity

jacob_cannellJul 1, 2015, 8:38 PM
38 points
15 comments14 min readLW link

Philo­soph­i­cal self-ratification

jessicataFeb 3, 2020, 10:48 PM
23 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Pre­dic­tive Rea­son­ing Systems

ozziegooenFeb 20, 2019, 7:44 PM
26 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What to make of Aubrey de Grey’s pre­dic­tion?

Rafael HarthFeb 28, 2020, 7:25 PM
23 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Time Binders

SlimepriestessFeb 24, 2020, 9:55 AM
24 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

June 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwernJul 2, 2020, 2:19 PM
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] Why hasn’t there been re­search on the effec­tive­ness of zinc for Covid-19?

Rudi CAug 24, 2020, 8:58 PM
12 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

The Values-to-Ac­tions De­ci­sion Chain

RemmeltJun 30, 2018, 9:52 PM
25 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

Indig­na­tion in re­sponse to the 1890 census

jasoncrawfordSep 8, 2020, 8:14 PM
26 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Clar­ify­ing “What failure looks like”

Sam ClarkeSep 20, 2020, 8:40 PM
95 points
14 comments17 min readLW link

Up close and per­sonal with the world

dominicqSep 25, 2020, 6:52 AM
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

COVID Strat­egy 101

Mike HarrisOct 5, 2020, 7:30 PM
55 points
7 comments18 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy of Therapy

DaystarEldOct 10, 2020, 8:12 PM
115 points
28 comments16 min readLW link
(daystareld.com)

How to come up with ver­bal probabilities

jimmyApr 29, 2009, 8:35 AM
27 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

A Toy Model for Me­dia Sharing

Past AccountOct 17, 2020, 3:59 PM
12 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Does play­ing hard to get work? AB test­ing for romance

amplemapleOct 26, 2020, 3:29 PM
16 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

The Con­scious Sorites Paradox

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 28, 2008, 2:58 AM
16 points
41 comments5 min readLW link

The Com­edy of Behaviorism

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 2, 2008, 8:42 PM
30 points
56 comments6 min readLW link

Con­tam­i­nated by Optimism

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 6, 2008, 12:26 AM
17 points
78 comments7 min readLW link

Fried­man’s “Pre­dic­tion vs. Ex­pla­na­tion”

Eliezer YudkowskySep 29, 2008, 6:15 AM
9 points
79 comments1 min readLW link

To­tal Nano Domination

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 27, 2008, 9:54 AM
26 points
23 comments10 min readLW link

Disjunc­tions, An­tipre­dic­tions, Etc.

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 9, 2008, 3:13 PM
27 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

Get­ting Nearer

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 17, 2009, 9:28 AM
16 points
23 comments3 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for the Long Slump

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 22, 2009, 8:56 AM
11 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

Lies and Secrets

steven0461Mar 8, 2009, 2:43 PM
18 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Two rea­sons to ex­pect a peace­ful change of power in the US

Tim LiptrotNov 8, 2020, 5:13 PM
11 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Where Do We Go From Here?

eapacheNov 8, 2020, 7:53 PM
7 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Read­ing/​listen­ing list for the US failing or other sig­nifi­cant shifts?

Nicole RossNov 13, 2020, 3:34 PM
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Without models

RichardKennawayMay 4, 2009, 11:31 AM
21 points
56 comments7 min readLW link

Ex­am­ples of Measures

Maxwell PetersonNov 15, 2020, 1:44 AM
22 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Con­sider Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Data Sets

Vladimir_NesovMay 6, 2009, 1:49 AM
12 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

Eth2 Stak­ing ex­plained as a Fi­nan­cial Instrument

AnnapurnaDec 2, 2020, 3:33 AM
18 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

How We Failed COVID-19

LukeOnlineDec 2, 2020, 9:29 PM
16 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

D&D.Sci

abstractapplicDec 5, 2020, 11:26 PM
41 points
52 comments1 min readLW link

Chance that “AI safety ba­si­cally [doesn’t need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by de­fault un­less we’re com­pletely com­pletely care­less”

Dec 8, 2020, 9:08 PM
27 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Chap­ter 10: What does it Mean?

ld97Mar 2, 2020, 6:21 PM
3 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

An ap­peal for vi­tamin D sup­ple­men­ta­tion as a pro­phy­lac­tic for coro­n­aviruses and in­fluenza and a sim­ple evolu­tion­ary the­ory for why this is plau­si­ble.

Michael ADec 22, 2020, 7:40 PM
11 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

Risk Map of AI Systems

Dec 15, 2020, 9:16 AM
25 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

The Perver­sity of High Standards

SocratesDissatisfiedDec 27, 2020, 2:37 PM
19 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

AI Align­ment, Philo­soph­i­cal Plu­ral­ism, and the Rele­vance of Non-Western Philosophy

xuanJan 1, 2021, 12:08 AM
30 points
21 comments20 min readLW link

[Question] If the fun­da­men­tal prob­lem that eco­nomics ad­dresses is the scarcity of re­sources, then what are the ba­sic ques­tions other sub­jects at­tempt to solve?

Kaveh-SedghiJan 3, 2021, 2:36 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Co­her­ent de­ci­sions im­ply con­sis­tent utilities

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 12, 2019, 9:33 PM
139 points
81 comments26 min readLW link3 reviews

Fit­ting­ness: Ra­tional suc­cess in con­cept formation

PolytoposJan 10, 2021, 3:58 PM
6 points
9 comments6 min readLW link

Mini thoughts on mintheism

CraigMichaelJan 11, 2021, 5:14 AM
15 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror’s Per­sonal Shopper

abstractapplicJan 12, 2021, 1:38 AM
51 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

Physi­cist’s dissociation

Mateusz MazurkiewiczJan 12, 2021, 4:40 AM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Con­tra StatNews: How Long to Herd Im­mu­nity?

AppliedDivinityStudiesJan 20, 2021, 10:06 PM
24 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

Is the world be­com­ing bet­ter?

invertedpassionFeb 6, 2021, 9:28 AM
34 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Ob­jec­tive truth?

pchvykovFeb 15, 2021, 9:47 PM
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Bit­coin and ESG Investing

AnnapurnaFeb 15, 2021, 9:01 PM
3 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are the most pow­er­ful lo­tuses?

ForensicOceanographyFeb 20, 2021, 7:05 PM
12 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

The Pro­to­typ­i­cal Ne­go­ti­a­tion Game

johnswentworthFeb 20, 2021, 9:33 PM
90 points
16 comments5 min readLW link1 review

Chaotic era: avoid or sur­vive?

Valentin2026Feb 22, 2021, 1:34 AM
3 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

A Primer on United States Treasuries

AnnapurnaMar 10, 2021, 3:08 AM
14 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Can an econ­omy keep on grow­ing?

invertedpassionMar 16, 2021, 9:55 AM
1 point
12 comments6 min readLW link

Open, Free, Safe: Choose Two

jaspaxMar 20, 2021, 4:42 PM
101 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What does the re­ac­tion to NFTs tell us about how peo­ple eval­u­ate ecolog­i­cal dam­age?

sxaeMar 24, 2021, 4:01 PM
1 point
5 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What is the se­man­tics of as­sign­ing prob­a­bil­ities to fu­ture events?

MichalApr 1, 2021, 12:29 AM
12 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

An­a­lyz­ing Mul­ti­player Games us­ing IMPACT

midcoApr 2, 2021, 7:10 PM
10 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

Con­vict Con­di­tion­ing Book Review

BoraskoApr 9, 2021, 10:10 PM
40 points
11 comments11 min readLW link

The se­cret of Wikipe­dia’s success

Aaron BergmanApr 14, 2021, 10:18 PM
65 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(aaronbergman.substack.com)

[Question] Can you im­prove IQ by prac­tic­ing IQ tests?

ForensicOceanographyApr 27, 2021, 11:28 AM
8 points
40 comments1 min readLW link

Re­view and Com­par­i­son: Onto-Car­tog­ra­phy & Promise Theory

JosephineMay 9, 2021, 12:42 AM
13 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Are PS5 scalpers ac­tu­ally bad?

willbradshawMay 18, 2021, 12:27 PM
23 points
29 comments3 min readLW link

The Ree­bok effect

Jan Christian RefsgaardMay 21, 2021, 5:11 PM
13 points
15 comments1 min readLW link
(statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu)

The BTC equil­ibriu­mat­ing and the ETH one-eightening

Randomized, ControlledMay 25, 2021, 9:32 PM
22 points
7 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] How likely is our view of the cos­mos?

YitzMay 27, 2021, 4:35 PM
8 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on the Align­ment Im­pli­ca­tions of Scal­ing Lan­guage Models

leogaoJun 2, 2021, 9:32 PM
79 points
11 comments17 min readLW link

Unat­tributed Good

Filip DousekJun 4, 2021, 8:47 PM
10 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Gam­ing Incentives

JozdienJul 29, 2021, 1:51 PM
10 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Thoughts on a “Se­quences In­spired” PhD Topic

goose000Jun 17, 2021, 8:36 PM
7 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The Effi­cient Mar­ket Hy­poth­e­sis in Research

libaiJul 8, 2021, 5:00 PM
11 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

The Bul­lwhip Effect

aysajanJul 13, 2021, 8:40 PM
19 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

So­cial me­dia: de­signed to be bad for you & for society

mattoJul 24, 2021, 6:59 PM
29 points
18 comments4 min readLW link

In Most Mar­kets, Lower Risk Means Higher Reward

dawangyAug 13, 2021, 5:32 PM
33 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

As­sign­ing prob­a­bil­ities to meta­phys­i­cal ideas

Jotto999Sep 8, 2021, 12:15 AM
14 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

Dist­in­guish­ing AI takeover scenarios

Sep 8, 2021, 4:19 PM
67 points
11 comments14 min readLW link

Paths To High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

Daniel_EthSep 10, 2021, 1:21 PM
67 points
8 comments33 min readLW link

[linkpost] The Psy­cholog­i­cal Econ­omy of In­ac­tion by William Gillis

QuinnSep 12, 2021, 10:04 PM
12 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(humaniterations.net)

Sun­screen: much more than you wanted to know

Pierre VandenbergheSep 28, 2021, 10:42 AM
29 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(pierreavdb.substack.com)

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: Look­ing At Progress On C. elgans

jefftkOct 29, 2011, 3:21 PM
59 points
85 comments2 min readLW link

AI Pre­dic­tion Ser­vices and Risks of War

isaduanOct 3, 2021, 10:26 AM
3 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Pos­si­ble Wor­lds af­ter Pre­dic­tion Take-off

isaduanOct 3, 2021, 10:26 AM
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Rul­ing Out Every­thing Else

Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)Oct 27, 2021, 9:50 PM
163 points
49 comments21 min readLW link2 reviews

What are red flags for Neu­ral Net­work suffer­ing?

Marius HobbhahnNov 8, 2021, 12:51 PM
26 points
15 comments12 min readLW link

Study Guide

johnswentworthNov 6, 2021, 1:23 AM
220 points
41 comments16 min readLW link

A FLI post­doc­toral grant ap­pli­ca­tion: AI al­ign­ment via causal anal­y­sis and de­sign of agents

PabloAMCNov 13, 2021, 1:44 AM
4 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Where in the world will a UBI de­velop first?

AsgårdDec 3, 2021, 3:54 PM
4 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Model­ing Failure Modes of High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

Dec 6, 2021, 1:54 PM
54 points
1 comment12 min readLW link

See­ing the In­visi­ble (And How to Think About Ma­chine Learn­ing)

Filip DousekDec 8, 2021, 9:04 PM
3 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Ex­pec­ta­tions In­fluence Real­ity (and AI)

purplelightFeb 4, 2022, 9:31 PM
0 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Hous­ing Mar­kets, Satis­ficers, and One-Track Goodhart

J BostockDec 16, 2021, 9:38 PM
1 point
2 comments2 min readLW link

Po­ten­tial gears level ex­pla­na­tions of smooth progress

ryan_greenblattDec 22, 2021, 6:05 PM
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Hedg­ing the Pos­si­bil­ity of Rus­sia in­vad­ing Ukraine

AnnapurnaDec 23, 2021, 1:13 AM
22 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 1 (solu­tion)

Pablo RepettoDec 21, 2021, 5:42 PM
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Use Nor­mal Predictions

Jan Christian RefsgaardJan 9, 2022, 3:01 PM
137 points
69 comments6 min readLW link

The pos­si­bil­ity of no good amaz­ing forecasters

Johannes C. MayerJan 3, 2022, 12:57 PM
3 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Two om­i­nous charts on the fi­nan­cial mar­kets

aruntoJan 8, 2022, 2:07 PM
25 points
26 comments2 min readLW link

An Open Philan­thropy grant pro­posal: Causal rep­re­sen­ta­tion learn­ing of hu­man preferences

PabloAMCJan 11, 2022, 11:28 AM
19 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Ques­tion Gravity

Isaac KingJan 13, 2022, 6:30 AM
50 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 3

Pablo RepettoJan 23, 2022, 2:49 AM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Re­vis­it­ing Brave New World Re­vis­ited (Chap­ter 3)

Justin BullockFeb 1, 2022, 5:17 PM
5 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

The ’Why’s of an In­ter­na­tional Aux­iliary Lan­guage (IAL part 1)

Long tryFeb 8, 2022, 4:39 AM
−1 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

To Change the World

lsusrFeb 10, 2022, 6:08 AM
88 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

Abun­dance and scarcity; work­ing for­wards and work­ing backwards

QuinnFeb 18, 2022, 7:05 PM
27 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Books Wor­thy of Integration

Roven SkyfalFeb 20, 2022, 8:03 AM
11 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Sur­vey] Ex­pec­ta­tions of a Post-ASI Order

Lone PineMar 9, 2022, 7:17 PM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Nu­clear Deter­rence 101 (and why the US can’t even hint at in­ter­ven­ing in Ukraine)

DarmaniMar 18, 2022, 7:25 AM
36 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Ex­per­i­men­tal longter­mism: the­ory needs data

Mar 24, 2022, 8:23 AM
50 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Science is Min­ing, not Foraging

Seb FarquharApr 3, 2022, 6:19 PM
17 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

Pro­ject In­tro: Selec­tion The­o­rems for Modularity

Apr 4, 2022, 12:59 PM
69 points
20 comments16 min readLW link

A para­dox of existence

Chris van MerwijkApr 5, 2022, 9:45 AM
27 points
27 comments5 min readLW link

The Zom­bie Ar­gu­ment for Empiricists

JonathanErhardtApr 6, 2022, 7:10 PM
5 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Set­ting the Brains Difficulty-Anchor

Johannes C. MayerApr 7, 2022, 5:04 AM
2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Find­ing Use­ful Things

Johannes C. MayerApr 7, 2022, 5:57 AM
3 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing a global catas­tro­phe: the Ukrainian model

RomanSApr 7, 2022, 12:06 PM
5 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Book Re­view: A PhD is Not Enough

ljh2Apr 7, 2022, 5:15 AM
21 points
4 comments23 min readLW link

Hyper­bolic takeoff

Ege ErdilApr 9, 2022, 3:57 PM
17 points
8 comments10 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

[Question] How path-de­pen­dent are hu­man val­ues?

Ege ErdilApr 15, 2022, 9:34 AM
13 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What re­cent aca­demic ar­eas of study have a sam­ple size that is ‘too small’?

casualphysicsenjoyerApr 16, 2022, 1:52 PM
2 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Key ques­tions about ar­tifi­cial sen­tience: an opinionated guide

RobboApr 25, 2022, 12:09 PM
45 points
31 comments18 min readLW link

Hard ev­i­dence that mild COVID cases fre­quently re­duce intelligence

trevorMay 7, 2022, 5:55 AM
4 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] diffu­sion mag­ne­tizes man­i­folds (DALL-E 2 in­tu­ition build­ing)

Paul BricmanMay 7, 2022, 11:01 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(paulbricman.com)

[Question] The Eco­nomics of a New En­ergy Source

casualphysicsenjoyerMay 13, 2022, 2:08 PM
2 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Inequal­ity is in­sep­a­rable from mar­kets

NathanBarnardMay 14, 2022, 1:39 PM
22 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Gato as the Dawn of Early AGI

David UdellMay 15, 2022, 6:52 AM
84 points
29 comments12 min readLW link

Fem­i­nism and Femininity

NathanBarnardMay 18, 2022, 10:53 PM
4 points
8 comments6 min readLW link

A dis­cus­sion of the pa­per, “Large Lan­guage Models are Zero-Shot Rea­son­ers”

HiroSakurabaMay 26, 2022, 3:55 PM
7 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] A ter­rify­ing var­i­ant of Boltz­mann’s brains problem

Zeruel017May 30, 2022, 8:08 PM
5 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

The Fourth Arena: What’s Up in the world these days? We’re mov­ing to a new, a new what?

Bill BenzonJun 4, 2022, 7:07 PM
2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (iv) Silencio

party girlJun 7, 2022, 3:39 PM
5 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

You Only Get One Shot: an In­tu­ition Pump for Embed­ded Agency

Oliver SourbutJun 9, 2022, 9:38 PM
22 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

I No Longer Believe In­tel­li­gence to be “Mag­i­cal”

DragonGodJun 10, 2022, 8:58 AM
31 points
34 comments6 min readLW link

Break­ing Down Goal-Directed Behaviour

Oliver SourbutJun 16, 2022, 6:45 PM
10 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] How Do You Quan­tify [Physics In­ter­fac­ing] Real World Ca­pa­bil­ities?

DragonGodJun 14, 2022, 2:49 PM
17 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

One sin­gle meme that makes you Less Wrong in general

trevorJun 21, 2022, 8:29 PM
−1 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Build­ing an Epistemic Sta­tus Tracker

rcuJun 22, 2022, 6:57 PM
6 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Poli­tics is the Mind Killer. But is it get­ting worse?

trevorJun 22, 2022, 7:47 PM
5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

LessWrong Has Agree/​Disagree Vot­ing On All New Com­ment Threads

Ben PaceJun 24, 2022, 12:43 AM
140 points
215 comments2 min readLW link

Every­thing you need to know about UFOs (in 26 words)

trevorJun 25, 2022, 6:04 PM
−5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The Ba­sics of AGI Policy (Flowchart)

trevorJun 26, 2022, 2:01 AM
18 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Is Gen­eral In­tel­li­gence “Com­pact”?

DragonGodJul 4, 2022, 1:27 PM
21 points
6 comments22 min readLW link

A physi­cist’s ap­proach to Ori­gins of Life

pchvykovJun 28, 2022, 3:23 PM
11 points
6 comments16 min readLW link

Could an AI Align­ment Sand­box be use­ful?

Michael SoareverixJul 2, 2022, 5:06 AM
2 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

When is it ap­pro­pri­ate to use statis­ti­cal mod­els and prob­a­bil­ities for de­ci­sion mak­ing ?

Younes KamelJul 5, 2022, 12:34 PM
10 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(youneskamel.substack.com)

How hu­man­ity would re­spond to slow take­off, with take­aways from the en­tire COVID-19 pan­demic

Noosphere89Jul 6, 2022, 5:52 PM
4 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Covid 7/​7/​22: Paxlovid at the Pharmacy

ZviJul 7, 2022, 2:30 PM
34 points
11 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Gen­ders Discrimination

Jacob FalkovichJul 7, 2022, 3:20 PM
10 points
16 comments4 min readLW link

Re­in­force­ment Learner Wireheading

Nate ShowellJul 8, 2022, 5:32 AM
8 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

In Search of Strate­gic Clarity

james.lucassenJul 8, 2022, 12:52 AM
8 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(jlucassen.com)

Un­bounded In­tel­li­gence Lottery

kmanJul 7, 2022, 11:28 PM
4 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

We are now at the point of deep­fake job interviews

trevorJul 10, 2022, 3:37 AM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.businessinsider.com)

Every­one is an Im­poster

TharinJul 13, 2022, 8:46 AM
18 points
1 comment9 min readLW link
(echoesandchimes.com)

Covid 7/​14/​22: BA.2.75 Plus Tax

ZviJul 14, 2022, 2:40 PM
39 points
9 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Cog­ni­tive In­sta­bil­ity, Phys­i­cal­ism, and Free Will

dadadarrenJul 16, 2022, 1:13 PM
5 points
27 comments2 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Ars D&D.Sci: Mys­ter­ies of Mana Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyerJul 19, 2022, 2:06 AM
29 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Are In­tel­li­gence and Gen­er­al­ity Orthog­o­nal?

cubefoxJul 18, 2022, 8:07 PM
17 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 7/​21/​22: Fea­tur­ing ASPR

ZviJul 21, 2022, 1:50 PM
27 points
0 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Is Gas Green?

ChristianKlJul 21, 2022, 10:30 AM
18 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Guns, Gods and Genders

Ben AmitayJul 21, 2022, 10:49 PM
−12 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Mis­takes as agency

pchvykovJul 25, 2022, 4:17 PM
12 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-07-27

jasoncrawfordJul 27, 2022, 5:20 PM
18 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] “Fa­nat­i­cal” Longter­mists: Why is Pas­cal’s Wager wrong?

YitzJul 27, 2022, 4:16 AM
1 point
7 comments1 min readLW link

My take­aways from the EA In-depth 4th week dis­cus­sion: An­i­mal Welfare

Kriz TahimicAug 3, 2022, 6:31 PM
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 8/​4/​22: Rebound

ZviAug 4, 2022, 11:20 AM
36 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Shard The­ory: An Overview

David UdellAug 11, 2022, 5:44 AM
135 points
34 comments10 min readLW link

Most Ivy-smart stu­dents aren’t at Ivy-tier schools

Aaron BergmanAug 7, 2022, 3:18 AM
85 points
7 comments8 min readLW link
(www.aaronbergman.net)

[Question] How would Log­i­cal De­ci­sion The­o­ries ad­dress the Psy­chopath But­ton?

Nathan1123Aug 7, 2022, 3:19 PM
5 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Do ad­vance­ments in De­ci­sion The­ory point to­wards moral ab­solutism?

Nathan1123Aug 11, 2022, 12:59 AM
0 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

The Host Minds of HBO’s West­world.

NerretAug 12, 2022, 6:53 PM
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What are some good ar­gu­ments against build­ing new nu­clear power plants?

RomanSAug 12, 2022, 7:32 AM
16 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

How I think about alignment

Linda LinseforsAug 13, 2022, 10:01 AM
30 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What is an agent in re­duc­tion­ist ma­te­ri­al­ism?

ValentineAug 13, 2022, 3:39 PM
7 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Dwarves & D.Sci: Data Fortress Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyerAug 16, 2022, 12:15 AM
23 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

The Open So­ciety and Its Ene­mies: Sum­mary and Thoughts

mattoAug 16, 2022, 11:44 AM
9 points
4 comments17 min readLW link

So, I Want to Be a “Think­fluencer”

DragonGodAug 20, 2022, 6:39 PM
3 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] What are the Limits on Com­putabil­ity?

DragonGodAug 20, 2022, 10:02 PM
6 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Ad­ver­sar­ial epistemology

jchanAug 24, 2022, 4:57 PM
25 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Please Do Fight the Hypothetical

Lone PineAug 29, 2022, 8:35 AM
18 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

And the word was “God”

pchvykovAug 30, 2022, 9:13 PM
−22 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Pon­der­ing the paucity of vol­canic pro­fan­ity post Pom­peii perusal

CraigMichaelSep 1, 2022, 9:29 AM
21 points
2 comments15 min readLW link

How to Do Re­search. v1

Pablo RepettoSep 8, 2022, 1:08 AM
27 points
4 comments41 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Turn­ing What­sApp Chat Data into Prompt-Re­sponse Form for Fine-Tuning

casualphysicsenjoyerSep 8, 2022, 8:05 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

eliflandSep 9, 2022, 4:01 AM
44 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­ter­pret­ing Afford­able Housing

jefftkSep 9, 2022, 7:40 PM
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Sim­ple proofs of the age of the uni­verse (or other things)

AstynaxSep 13, 2022, 6:20 PM
16 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Dan Luu on Fu­tur­ist Predictions

RobertMSep 14, 2022, 3:01 AM
50 points
9 comments5 min readLW link
(danluu.com)

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

eliflandSep 14, 2022, 11:56 PM
33 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Ca­pa­bil­ity and Agency as Corner­stones of AI risk ­— My cur­rent model

wilmSep 15, 2022, 8:25 AM
10 points
4 comments12 min readLW link

[To Be Re­vised]Per­haps the Mean­ing of Life, An Ad­ven­ture in Plu­ral­is­tic Morality

NoBadCakeSep 18, 2022, 10:37 PM
−5 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Some of the most im­por­tant en­trepreneur­ship skills are tacit knowledge

RuhulSep 20, 2022, 12:06 PM
20 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-09-20

jasoncrawfordSep 20, 2022, 2:07 PM
7 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

$13,000 of prizes for chang­ing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Think­ing Re­grants Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment)

spencergSep 20, 2022, 4:06 PM
12 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

Trends in Train­ing Dataset Sizes

Pablo VillalobosSep 21, 2022, 3:47 PM
24 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

There’s One Thing Fu­tur­ists are Never Wrong About

Alex BeymanSep 25, 2022, 7:41 PM
−4 points
45 comments19 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­is­tic rea­son­ing for de­scrip­tion and experience

Q HomeSep 27, 2022, 10:57 AM
0 points
0 comments26 min readLW link

Si­mu­lacra Levels in Literature

MinimanOct 2, 2022, 9:13 PM
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Linkpost] “In­ten­sity and fre­quency of ex­treme novel epi­demics” by Mar­i­ani et al. (2021)

T431Sep 28, 2022, 3:31 AM
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ge­or­gism in Space

harsimonySep 28, 2022, 4:05 PM
40 points
13 comments4 min readLW link
(harsimony.wordpress.com)

Covid 9/​29/​22: The Jones Act Waver

ZviSep 29, 2022, 6:20 PM
47 points
10 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Should rea­son­ably healthy peo­ple still take Paxlovid?

SameerishereSep 29, 2022, 3:41 AM
15 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Bet­ter Con­struc­tion Cost Es­ti­mates?

jefftkSep 29, 2022, 2:30 AM
12 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

His­tory of the the­ory of well-being

David HartsoughSep 30, 2022, 10:08 AM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Do in­sects’ lives mat­ter?

CarnSep 30, 2022, 3:38 PM
0 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] In­ter­est­ing pre­dic­tions on man­i­fold.markets

jmhOct 1, 2022, 4:09 PM
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a cul­ture over­hang?

Aleksi LiimatainenOct 3, 2022, 7:26 AM
18 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Rus­sia will do a nu­clear test

sanxiynOct 4, 2022, 2:59 PM
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Ad­ver­sar­ial vs Col­lab­o­ra­tive Contexts

jefftkOct 4, 2022, 2:40 AM
31 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Lay­ers Of Mind

PeteGOct 4, 2022, 4:52 PM
−8 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Amer­i­can in­ven­tion from the “heroic age” to the sys­tem-build­ing era

jasoncrawfordOct 6, 2022, 5:19 PM
13 points
1 comment10 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Against Ar­gu­ments For Exploitation

blackstampedeOct 6, 2022, 1:58 AM
18 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

Analysing a 2036 Takeover Scenario

ukc10014Oct 6, 2022, 8:48 PM
8 points
2 comments27 min readLW link

[Question] Do un­cer­tainty/​plan­ning costs make con­vex hulls un­re­al­is­tic?

eapiOct 6, 2022, 12:10 AM
16 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an im­mi­nent global nu­clear war

Max TegmarkOct 8, 2022, 6:26 AM
171 points
169 comments4 min readLW link

Re­quired read­ing for un­der­stand­ing the cur­rent nu­clear standoff

trevorOct 8, 2022, 8:46 PM
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

What if hu­man rea­son­ing is anti-in­duc­tive?

Q HomeOct 11, 2022, 5:15 AM
1 point
2 comments13 min readLW link

Did you en­joy Ramez Naam’s “Nexus” tril­ogy? Check out this in­ter­view on neu­rotech and the law.

fowlertmOct 11, 2022, 11:10 AM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Sketch] Val­idity Cri­te­rion for Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

DragonGodOct 11, 2022, 1:31 PM
6 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How much does the risk of dy­ing from nu­clear war differ within and be­tween coun­tries?

amaraiOct 11, 2022, 11:55 AM
4 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

What “The Mes­sage” Was For Me

Alex BeymanOct 11, 2022, 8:08 AM
−3 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

some simu­la­tion hypotheses

Tamsin LeakeOct 12, 2022, 1:34 PM
13 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

Ab­bots Brom­ley Horn Dance History

jefftkOct 12, 2022, 2:10 AM
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

That one apoc­a­lyp­tic nu­clear famine pa­per is bunk

Lao MeinOct 12, 2022, 3:33 AM
102 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Ac­tu­ally, All Nu­clear Famine Papers are Bunk

Lao MeinOct 12, 2022, 5:58 AM
104 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

A stub­born un­be­liever fi­nally gets the depth of the AI al­ign­ment problem

aelwoodOct 13, 2022, 3:16 PM
17 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(pursuingreality.substack.com)

Against the nor­ma­tive re­al­ist’s wager

Joe CarlsmithOct 13, 2022, 4:35 PM
16 points
9 comments23 min readLW link

[Question] How much of China’s Zero COVID policy is ac­tu­ally about COVID?

jmhOct 14, 2022, 7:23 AM
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches the ‘Fore­cast­ing Our World In Data’ Pro­ject to Probe the Long-Term Future

ChristianWilliamsOct 14, 2022, 5:00 PM
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Space Between Moments

Alex BeymanOct 14, 2022, 11:34 PM
7 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

Bounded dis­trust or Bounded trust?

M. Y. ZuoOct 15, 2022, 4:41 PM
2 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Life, Death, and Fi­nance in the Cos­mic Mul­ti­verse

peterbOct 16, 2022, 6:57 PM
−4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If I asked for an ex­pla­na­tion of a perfect Utopia, could you give one?

AkkiraOct 19, 2022, 5:56 PM
−4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Tra­jec­to­ries to 2036

ukc10014Oct 20, 2022, 8:23 PM
1 point
1 comment14 min readLW link

The high­est-prob­a­bil­ity out­come can be out of distribution

tailcalledOct 22, 2022, 8:00 PM
13 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] When try­ing to define gen­eral in­tel­li­gence is abil­ity to achieve goals the best met­ric?

jmhOct 22, 2022, 3:09 AM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Crypto loves im­pact mar­kets: Notes from Schel­ling Point Bogotá

Rachel ShuOct 22, 2022, 3:58 PM
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Do we have the right kind of math for roles, goals and mean­ing?

mrcbarbierOct 22, 2022, 9:28 PM
12 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

A ba­sic lex­i­con of telic concepts

mrcbarbierOct 22, 2022, 9:28 PM
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Trans­lated tran­scripts of Putin’s ma­jor speeches from Oct 27, 2022

trevorOct 28, 2022, 3:40 AM
28 points
10 comments13 min readLW link
(en.kremlin.ru)

Method of state­ments: an al­ter­na­tive to taboo

Q HomeNov 16, 2022, 10:57 AM
7 points
0 comments41 min readLW link

Syncretism

AnnapurnaOct 28, 2022, 4:08 PM
16 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(jorgevelez.substack.com)

Hu­mans do acausal co­or­di­na­tion all the time

Adam JermynNov 2, 2022, 2:40 PM
51 points
36 comments3 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Mar­kets 2: Op­ti­mally Shaped Re­ward Bets

eva_Nov 3, 2022, 11:08 AM
9 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Cross-Void Optimization

pneumynymNov 4, 2022, 5:47 PM
−5 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

In­stead of tech­ni­cal re­search, more peo­ple should fo­cus on buy­ing time

Nov 5, 2022, 8:43 PM
80 points
51 comments14 min readLW link

Un­pri­ca­ble In­for­ma­tion and Cer­tifi­cate Hell

eva_Nov 5, 2022, 10:56 PM
12 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Has Pas­cal’s Mug­ging prob­lem been com­pletely solved yet?

EniScienNov 6, 2022, 12:52 PM
3 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

The sky is not blue (par­don the ob­vi­ous­ness)

banevNov 13, 2022, 10:49 AM
−13 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

The Fu­til­ity of Sta­tus and Signalling

Ape in the coatNov 13, 2022, 5:14 PM
17 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Fic­tion: The Tale of XDer—In­tro -

Lil XanderNov 17, 2022, 4:47 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Echo Principle

Jonathan MoregårdNov 16, 2022, 8:09 PM
5 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(honestliving.substack.com)

Care­fully-ed­ited Tran­script of Trump’s Nov 15th Cam­paign Announcement

trevorNov 16, 2022, 8:11 PM
0 points
8 comments32 min readLW link

Cog­ni­tive sci­ence and failed AI fore­casts

Eleni AngelouNov 24, 2022, 9:02 PM
0 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is Ger­man ra­tio­nal­ity more memet­i­cally de­rived from the west or former east?

trevorNov 21, 2022, 5:35 AM
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Mo­ti­vated Cog­ni­tion and the Mul­ti­verse of Truth

Q HomeNov 22, 2022, 12:51 PM
8 points
12 comments24 min readLW link

[Question] How does late-2022 COVID trans­mis­si­bil­ity drop over time?

Daniel DeweyNov 22, 2022, 7:54 PM
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Feel­ing Old: Leav­ing your 20s in the 2020s

squidiousNov 22, 2022, 10:50 PM
37 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(opalsandbonobos.blogspot.com)

Against a Gen­eral Fac­tor of Doom

Jeffrey HeningerNov 23, 2022, 4:50 PM
56 points
18 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

The man and the tool

pedroalvaradoNov 25, 2022, 7:51 PM
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­tu­itions by ML re­searchers may get pro­gres­sively worse con­cern­ing likely can­di­dates for trans­for­ma­tive AI

Viktor RehnbergNov 25, 2022, 3:49 PM
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

New Fron­tiers in Mojibake

Adam ScherlisNov 26, 2022, 2:37 AM
60 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(adam.scherlis.com)

Wired Magaz­ine prints mis­in­for­ma­tion about AI safety

trevorDec 1, 2022, 3:39 AM
2 points
6 comments4 min readLW link
(www.wired.com)

De­con­fus­ing Direct vs Amor­tised Optimization

berenDec 2, 2022, 11:30 AM
48 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

Chat GPT’s views on Me­ta­physics and Ethics

Cole KillianDec 3, 2022, 6:12 PM
5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(twitter.com)

AGI as a Black Swan Event

Stephen McAleeseDec 4, 2022, 11:00 PM
8 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

Covid 12/​8/​22: Another Win­ter Wave

ZviDec 8, 2022, 2:40 PM
23 points
8 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Story Of VaccinateCA

hathDec 9, 2022, 11:54 PM
93 points
4 comments10 min readLW link
(www.worksinprogress.co)

Trade­offs in com­plex­ity, ab­strac­tion, and generality

Dec 12, 2022, 3:55 PM
27 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

An ex­plo­ra­tion of GPT-2′s em­bed­ding weights

Adam ScherlisDec 13, 2022, 12:46 AM
26 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Kol­mogorov Com­plex­ity and Si­mu­la­tion Hypothesis

False NameDec 14, 2022, 10:01 PM
−1 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Reflec­tions: Bureau­cratic Hell

Haris RashidDec 20, 2022, 7:22 PM
−5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.harisrab.com)

AGI is here, but no­body wants it. Why should we even care?

MGowDec 20, 2022, 7:14 PM
−20 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

How Death Feels

sisyphusDec 18, 2022, 11:47 PM
−12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­lifer­at­ing Education

Haris RashidDec 20, 2022, 7:22 PM
−1 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(www.harisrab.com)

AGI Timelines in Gover­nance: Differ­ent Strate­gies for Differ­ent Timeframes

Dec 19, 2022, 9:31 PM
47 points
14 comments10 min readLW link

Prop­er­ties of cur­rent AIs and some pre­dic­tions of the evolu­tion of AI from the per­spec­tive of scale-free the­o­ries of agency and reg­u­la­tive development

Roman LeventovDec 20, 2022, 5:13 PM
7 points
0 comments36 min readLW link

The Aver­a­ge­ness of The Internet

louis030195Dec 20, 2022, 6:32 AM
−9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(brain.louis030195.com)
No comments.