Was a philosophy PhD student, left to work at AI Impacts, then Center on Long-Term Risk, then OpenAI. Quit OpenAI due to losing confidence that it would behave responsibly around the time of AGI. Now executive director of the AI Futures Project. I subscribe to Crocker’s Rules and am especially interested to hear unsolicited constructive criticism. http://sl4.org/crocker.html
Some of my favorite memes:
(by Rob Wiblin)
(xkcd)
My EA Journey, depicted on the whiteboard at CLR:
(h/t Scott Alexander)
Great post, I agree with everything you say in the first section. I disagree with your bottlenecks / amdahls law objection for reasons Ryan mentions; I think our analysis stands firm / takes those bottlenecks into account. (Though tbc we are very uncertain, more research is needed) As for hofstadters law, I think it is basically just the planning fallacy and yeah I think it’s a reasonable critique that insofar as our AI timelines are basically formed by doing something that looks like planning, we probably have a bias we need to correct for. I want to think more about the extent to which out timelines methodology is analogous to planning.