but we eventually die.
Dying is a symmetric problem, it’s not like we can’t die without AGI. If you want to calculate p(human extinction | AGI) you have to consider ways AGI can both increase and decrease p(extinction). And the best methods currently available to humans to aggregate low probability statistics are expert surveys, groups of super-forecasters, or prediction markets, all of which agree on pDoom <20%.
alas, this isn’t really enforceable in the USA given the 1st amendment.