Sage Future

Pre­dict 2025 AI ca­pa­bil­ities (by Sun­day)

Con­crete benefits of mak­ing predictions

Fate­book for Chrome: Make and em­bed fore­casts any­where on the web

Fore­cast your 2024 with Fatebook

In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

• Sage FutureJul 4, 2023, 11:11 AM

  3 points

  1

  on: Pre­dict­ing: Quick Start

  Other platforms

  See also Confido and Fatebook

• Sage FutureJul 4, 2023, 11:10 AM

  2 points

  0

  on: Pre­dict­ing: Quick Start

  https://​​peterattiamd.com/​​confidence/​​ - The only numeric calibration test that I know of (asks you to provide a “95% confidence interval)!! :) However, you’ll need to grade it yourself :(

  See also quantifiedintuitions.org/​calibration

• Sage FutureMay 15, 2023, 1:25 PM

  6 points

  1

  in reply to: mukashi’s comment on: Fate­book for Slack: Track your fore­casts, right where your team works

  Thanks! There’s a Manifold Markets Discord bot which lets you quickly create and bet on markets

  We might create a Fatebook Discord bot if there’s enough interest (some other people have asked for it) - though first we’re making a web version.

Fate­book for Slack: Track your fore­casts, right where your team works

• Sage FutureMar 23, 2023, 11:34 AM

  2 points

  0

  in reply to: Bart Bussmann’s comment on: Anki with Uncer­tainty: Turn any flash­card deck into a cal­ibra­tion train­ing tool

  Good question—each time it’ll ask for your 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, or 95% confidence interval (chosen at random). So over time you’ll be able to see your calibration scores

  

Anki with Uncer­tainty: Turn any flash­card deck into a cal­ibra­tion train­ing tool

The Es­ti­ma­tion Game: a monthly Fermi es­ti­ma­tion web app

Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

• Sage FutureAug 11, 2022, 10:18 PM

  3 points

  2

  in reply to: MSRayne’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Past­cast­ing: A tool for fore­cast­ing practice

  Unfortunately, there’s no fully general solution to prevent cheating. We rely on people’s honor to skip questions they already know and intend it to be used mainly as a tool for training and competing against people you trust.

• Sage FutureAug 11, 2022, 6:56 PM

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Raemon’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Past­cast­ing: A tool for fore­cast­ing practice

  Thanks for the feedback! We’ve fixed the issue and you should be able to see our default question again after login.

In­tro­duc­ing Past­cast­ing: A tool for fore­cast­ing practice