Nuclear engineer with a focus in nuclear plant safety and probabilistic risk assessment. Aspiring EA, interested in X-risk mitigation and the intersection of science and policy. Working towards Keegan/Kardashev/Simulacra level 4.
(Common knowledge note: I am not under a secret NDA that I can’t talk about, as of Dec 1 2024. I intend to update this statement at least once a year as long as it’s true.)
Yeah, something along the lines of an ELO-style rating would probably work better for this. You could put lots of hard questions on the test and then instead of just ranking people you compare which questions they missed, etc.
This works for corn plants because the underlying measurement “amount of protein” is something that we can quantify (in grams or whatever) in addition to comparing two different corn plants to see which one has more protein. IQ tests don’t do this in any meaningful sense; think of an IQ test more like a Moh’s hardness scale, where you can figure out a new material’s position on the scale by comparing it to a few with similar hardness and seeing which are harder and which are softer. If it’s harder than all of the previously tested materials, it just goes at the top of the scale.
I wasn’t saying it’s impossible to engineer a smarter human. I was saying that if you do it successfully, then IQ will not be a useful way to measure their intelligence. IQ denotes where someone’s intelligence falls relative to other humans, and if you make something smarter than any human, their IQ will be infinity and you need a new scale.
it’s not even clear what it would mean to be a 300-IQ human
IQ is an ordinal score, not a cardinal one—it’s defined by the mean of 100 and standard deviation of 15. So all it means is that this person would be smarter than all but about 1 in 10^40 natural-born humans. It seems likely that the range of intelligence for natural-born humans is limited by basic physiological factors like the space in our heads, the energy available to our brains, and the speed of our neurotransmitters. So a human with IQ 300 is probably about the same as IQ 250 or IQ 1000 or IQ 10,000, i.e. at the upper limit of that range.
I’ve heard doctors ask questions like this but I don’t think they usually get very helpful answers. “My diet’s okay I guess, pretty typical, a lot of times I don’t sleep great, and yeah I have a pretty stressful job.” Great, what do you do with that?
“Food” in general is about the easiest and most natural thing for a dog to identify. Distinguishing illegal drugs from all the other random stuff a person might be carrying (soap, perfume, medicine, etc.) at least requires a lot better training than finding food.
It’s interesting that 3.5 Sonnet does not seem to match, let alone beat, GPT-4o on the leaderboard (https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard). Currently it shows GPT-4o with elo 1287 and Claude 3.5 Sonnet at 1271.
Although it would also be nice to distinguish that from “I read this post already somewhere else”
I would love to have a checkbox or something next to each post to indicate “I saw this and I don’t want to click on it”
As a counterpoint, take a look at this article: https://peterattiamd.com/protein-anabolic-responses/
The upshot is that the studies saying your body can only use 45g of protein per meal for muscle synthesis are mostly based on fast-acting whey protein shakes. Stretching out the duration of protein metabolism (by switching protein sources and/or combining it with other foods in a gradually-digested meal) can mitigate the problem quite a bit.
Saturated fats are definitely manageable in small amounts. For most of history, and still in many places today, the biggest concern for an infant was getting sufficient calories, and saturated fat is a great choice for that. When you look at modern hunter-gatherer diets, they contain animal products, but in most cases they do not make up the majority of calories (exceptions usually involve lots of seafood), the meats are wild and therefore fairly lean, and BMI stays generally quite low. Under those conditions, heart disease risk is small and whether it is slightly increased by the saturated fat in one’s diet is mostly irrelevant. There is a big difference between chasing down the occasional antelope and pulling up to the drive through for a cheeseburger. So the evolutionary argument really is not strong evidence that saturated fats are harmless.
I agree that the studies we have are mostly inadequate, but I don’t think using hunter-gatherer diets as a control would be very useful either. If you change everything at once, you can’t isolate specific causal factors. What we really need (but can’t have) is a bunch of large scale trials that have many groups with many different interventions and combinations of interventions, and statistical power to distinguish outcomes between each group.
Real can of worms that deserves its own post I would think
I think in this case just spacing them out would help more.
Downvoted because I waded through all those rhetorical shenanigans and I still don’t understand why you didn’t just say what you mean.
Separate clocks would be a pain to manage in a board game, but in principle “the game ends once 50% of players have run out of time” seems like a decent condition.
Oh, good point, I had forgotten about the zero-sum victory points. The extent to which the other parts are zero sum depends a lot on how large the game board is relative to the number of players, so it could be adjusted. I was thinking about having a time limit instead of a round limit, to encourage the play to move quickly, but maybe that’s too stressful. If you want the players to choose to end the game, then you’d want to build in a mechanic that works against all of them more and more as the game progresses, so that at some point continuing becomes counterproductive...
Would a good solution be to just play Settlers, but instead of saying “the goal is to get more points than anyone else,” say “this is a variant where the goal is to get the highest score you can, individually”? That seems like it would change the negotiation dynamics in a potentially interesting way without having to make or teach a brand new game. Does this miss the point somehow?
So, then it seems like the client’s best move in this scenario is to lie to you strategically, or at least omit information strategically. They could say “I know for sure you won’t find any fingerprints or identifiable face in the camera footage” and “I think my friends will confirm that I was playing video games with them”, and as long as they don’t actually tell you that’s a lie, you can put those friends on the stand, right?
I would think things are headed toward these companies fine tuning an open source near-frontier LLM. Cheaper than building one from scratch but with most of the advantages.