Do you mean Evan Hubinger, Evan R. Murphy, or a different Evan? (I would be surprised and humbled if it was me, though my priors on that are low.)
Evan_Gaensbauer
Karma: 1,797
Chinese Researchers Crack ChatGPT: Replicating OpenAI’s Advanced AI Model
Human Biodiversity (Part 4: Astral Codex Ten)
How do you square encouraging others to weigh in on EA fundraising, and presumably the assumption that anyone in the EA community can trust you as a collaborator of any sort, with your intentions, as you put it in July, to probably seek to shut down at some point in the future?
Catalogue of POLITICO Reports and Other Cited Articles on Effective Altruism and AI Safety Connections in Washington, DC
[Question] Are there high-quality surveys available detailing the rates of polyamory among Americans age 18-45 in metropolitan areas in the United States?
[Question] What evidence is there for (or against) theories about the extent to which effective altruist interests motivated the ouster of Sam Altman last year?
The Substack post only mentions that a researcher leaked the document, not that any researcher authored it. The document could’ve been written up by one or more Google staffers who aren’t directly doing the research themselves, like a project manager or a research assistant.
Nothing in the document should necessarily be taken as representative of Google, or any particular department, though the value of any insights drawn from the document could vary based on what AI research project(s)/department the authors of the document work on/in. This document is scant evidence in any direction of how representative the statements made are of Google and its leadership, or any of the teams or leaders of any particular projects or departments at Google focused on the relevant approaches to AI research.
Thanks for making this comment. I had a similar comment in mind. You’re right nobody should assume any statements in this document represent the viewpoint of Google, or any of its subsidiaries, like DeepMind, or any department therein. Neither should be assumed that the researcher(s) who authored or leaked this document are department or project leads. The Substack post only mentions that a researcher leaked the document, not that any researcher authored it. The document could’ve been written up by one or more Google staffers who aren’t directly doing the research themselves, like a project manager or a research assistant.
On the other hand, there isn’t enough information to assume it was only one or more “random” staffers at Google. Again, nothing in the document should necessarily be taken as representative of Google, or any particular department, though the value of any insights drawn from the document could vary based on what AI research project(s)/department the authors of the document work on/in.
That might not be a useful question to puzzle over much, since we could easily never find out who the anonymous author(s) of the document is/are. Yet that the chance the authors aren’t purely “random” researchers should still also be kept in mind.
Thank you for this detailed reply. It’s valuable, so I appreciate the time and effort you’ve put into it.
The thoughts I’ve got to respond with are EA-focused concerns that would be tangential to the rationality community, so I’ll draft a top-level post for the EA Forum instead of replying here on LW. I’ll also read your EA Forum post and the other links you’ve shared to incorporate into my later response.
Please also send me a private message if you want to set up continuing the conversation over email, or over a call sometime.
I’ve edited the post so It’s now “resentment from rationalists elsewhere to the Bay Area community” to “resentment from rationalists elsewhere toward the Bay Area community” because that seems to reduce the ambiguity some. My use of the word ‘resentment’ was intentional.
Thanks for catching those. The word ‘is’ was missing. The word “idea” was meant to be “ideal.” I’ve made the changes.
Changes in Community Dynamics: A Follow-Up to ‘The Berkeley Community & the Rest of Us’
I’m thinking of asking as another question post, or at least a post seeking feedback probably more than trying to stake a strong claim. Provoking debate for the sake of it would hinder that goal, so I’d try to writing any post in a way to avoid that. Those filters applied to any post I might write wouldn’t hinder any kind of feedback I’d seek. The social barriers to posting raised by others with the concerns you expressed are seeming high enough that I’m unsure I’ll post it after all.
[Question] Is there any way someone could post about public policy relating to abortion access (or another sensitive subject) on LessWrong without getting super downvoted?
This is a concern I take seriously. While it is possible increasing awareness of the problem of AI will make things worse overall, I think a more likely outcome is that it will be neutral to good.
Another consideration is how it may be a risk for long-termists to not pursue new ways of conveying the importance and challenge of ensuring human control of transformative AI. There is a certain principle of being cautious in EA. Yet in general we don’t self-reflect enough to notice when being cautious by default is irrational on the margin.
Recognizing the risks of acts of omission is a habit William MacAskill has been trying to encourage and cultivate in the EA community during the last year. Yet it’s been a principle we’ve acknowledged since the beginning. Consequentialism doesn’t distinguish between action, and inaction, as a failure to take any appropriate, crucial or necessary action to prevent a negative outcome. Risk aversion is focused on in the LessWrong Sequences more than most cognitive biases.
It’s now evident that past attempts at public communication about existential risks (x-risks) from AI have altogether proven to be neither sufficient nor adequate. It may not be a matter of not drawing more attention to the matter so much as drawing more of the right kind of attention. In other words, carefully conducing changes in how AI x-risks are perceived by various sections of the public is necessary.
The way we together as a community help you ensure how you write the book strikes the right balance may be to keep doing what MacAskill recommends:
Stay in constant communication about our plans with others, inside and outside of the EA community, who have similar aims to do the most good they can
Remember that, in the standard solution to the unilateralist’s dilemma, it’s the median view that’s the right (rather than the most optimistic or most pessimistic view)
Are highly willing to course-correct in response to feedback
I’m aware it’s a rather narrow range of ideas but a set of a few standard options being the ones most people adhere to is how it’s represented in popular discourse, which is what I’m going off of as a starting point. It has been established in other comments on my post that isn’t what to go off of. I’ve also mentioned that to be exposed to ideas I may not have thought of myself is part of why I want to have an open discussion on LW. My goal has been to gauge if that’s a discussion any significant portion of the LW user-base is indeed open to having. The best I’ve been able to surmise as an answer thus far is: “yes, if it’s done right.”
As to the question of whether I can hold myself to those standards and maintain them, I’ll interpret the question not as a rhetorical but literally. My answer is: yes, I expect I would be able to hold myself to those standards and maintain them. I wouldn’t have asked the original question in the first place if I thought there wasn’t at least a significant chance I could. I’m aware of how I’m writing this may seem to betray gross overconfidence on my part.
I’ll try here to convince you otherwise by providing context in terms of the perceived strawmanning of korin43′s comment on my part. The upshot as to why it’s not a strawman is because my position is the relatively extreme one, putting me in opposition to most people who broadly adopt my side of the issue (i.e., pro-choice). I expect it’s much more plausible that I am the one who is evil, crazy, insane, etc., than almost everyone who might disagree with me. Part of what I want to do is a ‘sanity check,’ figuratively speaking.
1. My position on abortion is one that most might describe as ‘radically pro-choice.’ The kind of position most would consider more extreme than mine is the kind that would go further to an outcome like banning anti-abortion/pro-life protests (which is an additional position I reject).
2. I embraced my current position on the basis of a rational appeal that contradicted the moral intuitions I had at the time. It still contradicts my moral intuitions. My prior moral intuition is also one I understand as among the more common (moral consideration should be given to an unborn infant or whatnot after the second trimester, or after the point when the infant could independently survive outside the womb). That this has me in a state of some confusion and that others on LessWrong can help me deconfuse better than I can by myself is why I want to ask the question.
3. What I consider a relatively rational basis for my position is one I expect only holds among those who broadly share similar moral intuitions. By “assumptions diametrically opposite mine,” I meant someone having an intuition that what would render a fetus worth moral consideration is not based on its capacity for sentience but on it having an immortal soul imbued by God. In that case, I don’t know of any way I might start making a direct appeal as to why someone should accept my position. The only approach I can think of is to start indirectly by convincing someone much of their own religion is false. That’s not something I’m confident I could do with enough competence to make such an attempt worthwhile.
I meant to include the hyperlink to the original source in my post but I forgot to, so thanks for catching that. I’ve now added it to the OP.
It seems like the kind of post I have in mind would be respected more if I’m willing and prepared to put in the effort of moderating the comments well too. I won’t make such a post before I’m ready to commit the time and effort to doing so. Thank you for being so direct about why you suspect I’m wrong. Voluntary explanations for the crux of a disagreement or a perception of irrationality are not provided on LessWrong nearly often enough.
Comment cross-posted to the Effective Altruism Forum
Edit, 15 December 2024: I’m not sure why this comment has gotten so downvoted in only the couple hours since I posted it, though I could guess why. I wrote this comment off the cuff, so I didn’t put as much effort into writing it as clearly or succinctly as I could, or maybe should, have. So, I understand how it might read is as a long, meandering nitpick, of a few statements near the beginning of the podcast episode, without me having listened to the whole episode yet. Then, I call a bunch of ex-EAs naive idiots, like Elizabeth referred to herself as at least formerly being a naive idiot, and then say even future effective altruists will be proven to be idiots, and those still propagating EA after so long, like Scott Alexander, might be the most naive and idiotic of all. To be clear, I also included myself, so this reading would also imply that I’m calling myself a naive idiot.
That’s not what I meant to say. I would downvote that comment too. I’m saying that
If it’s true what Elizabeth is saying about her being a naive idiot, then it would seem to follow that a lot of current, and former, effective altruists, including many rationalists, would also be naive idiots for similar reasons.
If that were the case, then it’d be consistent with greater truth-seeking, and criticizing others for not putting enough effort into truth-seeking with integrity with regards to EA, to point out to those hundreds of other people that they either, at one point were, or maybe still are, naive idiots.
If Elizabeth or whoever wouldn’t do that, not only because they consider it mean, but moreover because they wouldn’t think it true, then they should apply the same standards to themselves, and reconsider that they were not, in fact, just naive idiots.
I’m disputing the “naive idiocy” hypothesis here as spurious, as it comes down to the question of
whether someone like Tim—and, by extension, someone like me in the same position, who has also mulled over quitting EA—are still being naive idiots, on account of not having updated yet to the conclusion Elizabeth has already reached.
That’s important because it’d seem to be one of the major cruxes of whether someone like Tim, or me, would update and choose to quit EA entirely, which is the point of this dialogue, so if that’s not a true crux of disagreement here, speculating about whether hundreds of current and former effective altruists have been naive idiots is a waste of time.
I’ve begun listening to this podcast episode. Only a few minutes in, I feel a need to clarify a point of contention over some of what Elizabeth said:
She also mentioned that she considers herself to have caused harm by propagating EA. It seems like she might be being too hard on herself. While she might consider being that hard on herself to be appropriate, the problem could be what her conviction implies. There are clearly still some individual, long-time effective altruists she still respects, like Tim, even if she’s done engaging with the EA community as a whole. If that wasn’t true, I doubt this podcast would’ve been launched in the first place. Having been so heavily involved in the EA community for so long, and still being so involved in the rationality community, she may know hundreds of people, friends, who either still are effective altruists now, or used to be effective altruists, but no longer. Regarding the sort of harm caused by EA propagating itself as a movement, she provides this as a main example.
Hearing that made me think about a criticism of the organization of EA groups for university students made last year by Dave Banerjee, former president of the student EA club at Columbia University. His was one of the most upvoted criticisms of such groups, and how they’re managed, ever posted to the EA Forum. While Dave apparently realized what are presumably some of the same conclusions as Elizabeth about the problems with evangelical university EA groups, he did so with a much quicker turnaround than her. He shifted towards such a major update while still a university student, while it took her several years. I don’t mention that so as to imply that she was necessarily more naive and/or idiotic than he was. From another angle, given that he was propagating a much bigger EA club than Elizabeth ever did, at a time when EA was being driven to grow much faster than when Elizabeth might’ve been more involved with EA movement/community building, Dave could have easily have been responsible for causing more harm. Therefore, perhaps he has perhaps been even a more naive idiot than she ever was.
I’ve known other university students who were formerly effective altruists helping build student EA clubs, who quit because they also felt betrayed by EA as a community. Given that it’s not like EA will be changing overnight, in spite of whoever considers it imperative some of it movement-building activities stop, there will be teenagers in the future, coming months, who may come through EA with a similar experience. Their teenagers who may be chewed up and spit out, feeling ashamed of their complicity in causing harm through propagating EA as well. They may not have even graduated high school yet, and within a year or two, they may also be(come) those effective altruists, then former effective altruists, who Elizabeth is anticipating and predicting that she would call naive idiots. Yet those are the very young people Elizabeth would seek to prevent from befalling harm themselves by joining EA in the first place. It’s not evident that there’s any discrete point at which they cease being those who should heed her warning in the first place, and instead become naive idiots to chastise.
Elizabeth also mentions how she became introduced to EA in the first place.
As of a year ago, Scott Alexander wrote a post entitled In Continued Defense of Effective Altruism. While I’m aware he made some later posts responding to some criticisms of that one he made, I’m guessing he hasn’t abandoned that thesis of that post in its entirety. Meanwhile, as one of, if not the, most popular blog associated with either the rationality or EA communities, one way or another, Scott Alexander may still be drawing more people into the EA community than almost any other writer. If that means he may be causing more harm by propagating EA than almost any other rationalist still supportive of EA, then, at least in that particular way Elizabeth has in mind, Scott may right now continue to be one of the most naive idiots in the rationality community. The same may be true of so many effective altruists Elizabeth got to know in Seattle.
What I’m aware is a popular refrain among rationalists is: speak truth, even if your voice trembles. Never mind on the internet, Elizabeth could literally go meet hundreds of effective altruists or rationalists she has known in either the Bay Area, and Seattle, and tell them that for years they, too, were also naive idiots, or that they’re still being naive idiots. Doing so could be how Elizabeth could prevent them from causing harm. In not being willing to say so, she may counterfactually be causing so much more harm by saying or doing so much less to stop EA from propagating than she knows that she can.
Whether it be Scott Alexander, or so many of her friends who have been or still are in EA, or those who’ve helped propagate university student groups like Dave Banerjee, or those young adults who will come and go through EA university groups by the year 2026, there are hundreds of people Elizabeth should be willing to call, to their faces, naive idiots. It’s not a matter of whether she, or anyone, expects that’d work as some sort of convincing argument. That’s the sort of perhaps cynical and dishonest calculation she, and others, rightly criticize in EA. She should tell all of them that, if she believes it, even if her voice trembles. If she doesn’t believe that, that merits an explanation of how she considers herself to have been a naive idiot, but so many of them to not have been. If she can’t convincingly justify, not just to herself, but others, why she was exceptional in her naive idiocy, then perhaps she should reconsider her belief that even she was a naive idiot.
In my opinion she, or so many other former effective altruists, were not just naive idiots. Whatever mistakes they made, epistemically or practically, I doubt the explanation is that simple. The operationalization here of “naive idiocy” doesn’t seem like a decently measurable function of, say, how long it took before it was just how much harm someone was causing by propagating EA, and how much harm they did cause in that period of time. “Naive idiocy” here doesn’t seem to be all that coherent an explanation for why so many effective altruists got so much, so wrong, for so long.
I suspect there’s a deeper crux of disagreement here, one that hasn’t been pinpointed yet, by Elizabeth or Tim. It’s one I might be able to discern if I put in the effort, though I don’t have a sense of what it might’ve been either. I could, given that I still consider myself an effective altruist, though I ceased to be an EA group organizer myself last year too, on account of me not being confident in helping grow the EA movement further, even if I’ve continued participating in it for what I consider its redeeming qualities.
If someone doesn’t want to keep trying to change EA for the better, and instead opts to criticize it to steer others away from it, it may not be true that they were just naive idiots before. If they can’t substantiate their formerly naive idiocy, then to refer to themselves as having only been naive idiots, and by extension imply so many others they’ve known still are or were naive idiots too, is neither true nor useful. In that case, if Elizabeth would still consider herself to have been a naive idiot, that isn’t helpful, and maybe it is also a matter of her, truly, being too hard on herself. If you’re someone who has felt similarly, but you couldn’t bring yourself to call so many friends you made in EA a bunch of naive idiots to their faces because you’d consider that false or too hard on them, maybe you’re being too hard on yourself too. Whatever you want to see happen with EA, us being too hard on ourselves like that isn’t helpful to anyone.