Independent alignment researcher
I have signed no contracts or agreements whose existence I cannot mention.
Garrett Baker
Karma: 4,127
there is no neurotype or culture that is immune to peer pressure
Seems like the sort of thing that would correlate pretty robustly to big-5 agreeableness, and in that sense there are neurotypes immune to peer pressure.
Edit: One may also suspect a combination of agreeableness and non-openness
Some assorted polymarket and metaculus forecasts on the subject:
They are not exactly low.
Those invited to the foresight workshop (also the 2023 one) are probably a good start, as well as foresight’s 2023 and 2024 lectures on the subject.
I will take Zvi’s takeaways from his experience in this round of SFF grants as significant outside-view evidence for my inside view of the field.
I think you are possibly better/optimizing more than most others at selecting conferences & events you actually want to do. Even with work, I think many get value out of having those spontaneous conversations because it often shifts what they’re going to do—the number one spontaneous conversation is “what are you working on” or “what have you done so far”, which forces you to re-explain what you’re doing & the reasons for doing it to a skeptical & ignorant audience. My understanding is you and David already do this very often with each other.
I think its reasonable for the conversion to be at the original author’s discretion rather than an automatic process.
Back in May, when the Crowdstrike bug happened, people were posting wild takes on Twitter and in my signal groupchats about how Crowdstrike is only used everywhere because the government regulators subject you to copious extra red tape if you try to switch to something else.
Here’s the original claim:
Microsoft blamed a 2009 antitrust agreement with the European Union that they said forced them to sustain low-level kernel access to third-party developers.[286][287][288] The document does not explicitly state that Microsoft has to provide kernel-level access, but says Microsoft must provide access to the same APIs used by its own security products.[287]
This seems consistent with your understanding of regulatory practices (“they do not give a rats ass what particular software vendor you use for anything”), and is consistent with the EU’s antitrust regulations being at fault—or at least Microsoft’s cautious interpretation of the regulations, which indeed is the approach you want to take here.
I believed “bear spray” was a metaphor for a gun. Eg if you were posting online about camping and concerned about the algorithm disliking your use of the word gun, were going into a state park which has guns banned, or didn’t want to mention “gun” for some other reason, then you’d say “bear spray”, since bear spray is such an absurd & silly concept that people will certainly understand what you really mean.
Turns out, bear spray is real. Its pepper spray on steroids, and is actually more effective than a gun, since its easier to aim and is optimized to blind & actually cause pain rather than just damage. [EDIT:] Though see Jimmy’s comment below for a counter-point.
[Bug report]: The Popular Comments section’s comment preview ignores spoiler tags
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Film: The Martian
Rationality Tie-in: Virtue of scholarship is thread throughout, but Watney is generally an intelligent person tacking a seemingly impossible to solve problem.
Moneyball
The Martian
A Boy and His Dog—a weird one, but good for talking through & a heavy inspiration for Fallout
Ex Machina
300
I have found that they mirror you. If you talk to them like a real person, they will act like a real person. Call them (at least Claude) out on their corporate-speak and cheesy stereotypes in the same way you would a person scared to say what they really think.
@Nick_Tarleton How much do you want to bet, and what resolution method do you have in mind?
I note you didn’t mention the info-sec aspects of the war, I have heard China is better at this than the US, but that doesn’t mean much because you would expect to hear that if China was really terrible too.
I think the reason not to do this is because of peer pressure. Ideally you should have the bad pressures from your peers cancel out, and in order to accomplish this you need your peers to be somewhat decorrelated from each other, and you can’t really do this if all your peers and everyone you listen to is in the same social group.