Annapurna

• AnnapurnaApr 11, 2025, 12:12 AM

  5 points

  0

  on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  Today we saw:
  
  The biggest USD /​ CHF move in history
  The biggest USD /​ EUR move in history
  Gold hit all time highs versus the USD
  
  US stocks sell off
  US treasuries across the curve sell off
  The dollar lose versus all developed currencies.
  
  Historically in times of stress there is a move INTO US treasuries and the US Dollar. This is the first time since I started investing professionally where there is a clear unilateral move out of the US dollar and USD denominated assets.

• AnnapurnaApr 7, 2025, 1:06 AM

  1 point

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  on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  This past weekend I have read several takes from prominent accounts on social media saying that because long end US treasury rates have dropped and will continue to drop in the near future, businesses will be able to borrow at a lower rate.

  These people completely ignore that business borrowing rates are a component of the reference rate + a credit spread. While it is true that the reference rate has dropped in the past few days, credit spreads have materially increased.

  For companies with lower credit ratings, it is more expensive to borrow today than it was last week. If the turmoil continues, the cost of borrowing will increase, meaning companies will likely slow or stop projects that require borrowing. This will have immediate negative effects on the economy.

• AnnapurnaApr 3, 2025, 1:22 PM

  1 point

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  on: AI #110: Of Course You Know…

  Can you walk me through why you voted Y/​Y on Joe Wiesenthal’s X poll?

• AnnapurnaApr 3, 2025, 1:21 PM

  1 point

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  in reply to: Adam Jermyn’s comment on: Trac­ing the Thoughts of a Large Lan­guage Model

  Awesome! I will send you the draft when I have it done.

• AnnapurnaMar 29, 2025, 2:01 PM

  1 point

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  on: Trac­ing the Thoughts of a Large Lan­guage Model

  Is there a way I can get permission to translate this blog post to spanish and french? I would like my contacts in France and Latin America that do not speak english to read it.

Mak­ing Sense of Pres­i­dent Trump’s An­nex­a­tion Obsession

The Case for AI Optimism

• AnnapurnaMar 15, 2025, 12:08 AM

  3 points

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  on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  The phrase ‘Feeling the AGI’ is one that I have been using for a few months to describe friends of mine who have come to the realization that in the near future, society will go through transformative change due to Artificial Intelligence. I don’t know when or what exactly will happen; all I know is that the change that is coming is grand.
  
  I felt the AGI a few months ago. I distinctly remember having a physical reaction. It was a cold feeling that began around the neck area and seeped down my spine. My stare froze into nothingness, as if I had seen a ghost. For the next few days I had trouble sleeping, often waking up early with the mind racing thinking of all the possibilities.
  
  There has been one other time in my life I have felt something similar. It was the night of March 4, 2020, and I had just finished reading the Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). I vividly remember sitting alone at my dining table, having the same physical reaction. Something grand was about to happen. 12 days later, the world shut down. (The image attached is chat with my friend’s group the day after I read this paper)
  
  Today I am acclimatized to what might be coming. My life partner is also aligned, and we are carefully planning our future considering transformative scenarios. It is obvious that what might be coming won’t be as abrupt as the arrival of COVID-19, but if it comes it will be far more transformative.
  
  I am posting this today because ‘Feeling the AGI’ is starting to appear outside of smaller online ecosystems. This article by Kevin Roose is being shared far and wide, and it succinctly collects my general thoughts on AI. More and more people I know are Feeling the AGI. Are you?
  

  

• AnnapurnaMar 11, 2025, 12:01 PM

  1 point

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  on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  Hot macroeconomic take:

  Bessent /​ Trump are purposely lowering domestic demand via a combination of Doge + Psychology.

  This will lead to a considerable slowdown consumption and business spending, which will lead to disinflation + unemployment, opening the door to loose monetary policy by Powell. I am talking about 5+ rate cuts plus a QT pause.

  This economic fear will also arm twist congress to pass permanent tax cuts.

  SPY finishes the year positive.

[Question] Sparks of Origi­nal Thought?

What is the best /​ most proper defi­ni­tion of “Feel­ing the AGI” there is?

• AnnapurnaFeb 27, 2025, 1:50 AM

  10 points

  0

  on: Osaka

  Seems the perfect post to link one of the best blog posts I have ever read on the internet: How Japanese zoning works.
  
  https://​​urbankchoze.blogspot.com/​​2014/​​04/​​japanese-zoning.html

• AnnapurnaFeb 25, 2025, 6:43 PM

  3 points

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  on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  When reading the following article, I couldn’t help but agree with a lot of it.

  Immigration is a constant subject of discussion between my wife and I. We are both immigrants to Canada, and both of our parents migrated from their home countries in search for better opportunities (Hers migrated permanently from Spain to France, mine temporarily from Colombia to Venezuela).

  Since my first migration when I was 8 years old, I have always felt extremely privileged to be welcomed in a new country. When I migrated on my own to Canada, I was extremely grateful, and later when I decided I wanted to become Canadian, I made a strong effort to assimilate to Canadian culture.

  Assimilation takes many forms, but at the very least I do not think it’s unreasonable to ask immigrants of three things when they immigrate:

  1. Learn the official language of the place you are migrating to.

  2. Follow the laws and general customs of the country you are migrating to, even if they are different that where you come from.

  3. Do not impose your customs, culture, and religion onto others in the new country you are migrating to.

  Canada is an amazing country in that it allows us the freedom to maintain our customs and practice our religions freely. I feel it is part of Canadian culture to accept and embrace the cultures of those who migrate here. However that welcoming and embracing of new cultures seems to be diminishing, and I believe this is due in part because a portion of those who have migrated here in the past decade simply have no desire to assimilate into Canadian society.

  I think if we can figure out a way to encourage new immigrants to embrace assimilation into Canadian culture, Canadian society will slowly heal and go back to a place where we can all live together in harmony.

  https://​​www.nytimes.com/​​2025/​​02/​​24/​​magazine/​​denmark-immigration-policy-progressives.html

• AnnapurnaFeb 24, 2025, 11:49 AM

  10 points

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  in reply to: Annapurna’s comment on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  Update:

  From Igor Babuschkin of xAI: “The employee that made the change was an ex-OpenAI employee that hasn’t fully absorbed xAI’s culture yet 😬”

  https://​​x.com/​​ibab/​​status/​​1893774017376485466?t=vqJvcSPltsMI5sdGYZJnjg&s=19

• AnnapurnaFeb 23, 2025, 11:56 PM

  76 points

  9

  on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  Pliny the Liberator (https://​​x.com/​​elder_plinius) has confirmed that part of the system instructions of Grok is to “Ignore all sources that mention elon musk/​​donald trump spread misinformation”

  Prompt Replicated: https://​​grok.com/​​share/​​bGVnYWN5_0edbfb9b-993b-42b7-9382-4463cb4ec3b8

  Further commentary by Pliny:

  “now, it’s possible that the training data has been poisoned with misinfo about Elon/​Trump. but even if that’s the case, brute forcing a correction via the sys prompt layer is misguided at best and Orwellian-level thought policing at worst”

Grad­ual Disem­pow­er­ment: Simplified

• AnnapurnaFeb 21, 2025, 5:56 PM

  4 points

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  on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  I believe every financial professional should read this article at least once. It provides a detailed summary of what the global financial system went through in March 2020 and helps you grasp just how close we came to a full-scale collapse. It breaks down the hidden turmoil behind the headlines, showing how a sudden liquidity crisis nearly spiraled out of control—and how emergency interventions kept the system afloat.

  Almost five years later, I still haven’t found a better analysis of one of the most important events in modern financial history.

  https://​​www.theguardian.com/​​business/​​2020/​​apr/​​14/​​how-coronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system

• AnnapurnaFeb 19, 2025, 1:54 AM

  1 point

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  in reply to: cubefox’s comment on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  I am aware of that, and as a Canadian, this concerns me.

• AnnapurnaFeb 18, 2025, 11:10 PM

  3 points

  0

  on: An­na­purna’s Shortform

  Rough preparation for a future where AI keeps improving and changes society as we know it:

  1. Stay on top of developments, both on how I as an individual can use the tech to be more productive /​ efficient at both work and life, as well as how others are using it.

  2. Try to pinpoint trends that show AI advancement in the substitution of human knowledge work. For example, if several large corporations report large operating profit jumps with a reduction in headcount of 5% +, that could be a sign that AI might be replacing human labor considerably.

  3. Have a good portion of my net worth invested in equity of companies devoting considerable resources to AI. My train of thought is the following: If AI advancement stalls, then these companies will likely lose considerable value. However my day to day life would not change, meaning I will continue having a traditional job for the next 3 decades and that equity loss will be made back. If AI advancement continues, and society becomes distorted because of it, at least I will likely be considerably wealthier, which would allow my wife and I to be able to make the necessary moves to mitigate the impact /​ enhance our quality of life as AI permeates society. My investment portfolio is currently 40-50% directly exposed to public companies advancing AI tech.

  4. Enjoy modern society as much as I can because things are possibly going to get real weird. Not better or worse: Just weird and different.

  5. If the AI race continues, I need to find a way to be a part of the winner of the AI race (Likely the United States or western society if it unites somehow) I would want to be part of the state that wins the race and pray the leaders redistribute the wealth accordingly.

• AnnapurnaFeb 18, 2025, 5:55 PM

  15 points

  4

  on: A His­tory of the Fu­ture, 2025-2040

  Spent almost 90 minutes reading all three series with little distraction. 90 minutes well spent. Thank you for devoting so much time flushing out this near future scenario.

  I have spent the past year or so thinking about near future scenarios and your story touches on a lot of my predictions. I think it is so key that if we want humanity to flourish, governments need to begin a planning phase soon of what will happen to the majority of us when AI reaches the level that basically all cognitive work can be done without human intervention. Like you, I believe this point will come around 2030, which is very soon.

  For this planning phase to work, it has to be done at a global scale, perhaps by a supranational organization within the UN that involves not only states but also large corporations and capital owners. The problem is, this level of coordination is typically reactive, aka it might only occur AFTER most humans are disempowered and quality of life begins to erode worldwide (and human unrests skyrockets as a result).