Scott Alexander 2021 predictions: calibration and updating exercise
Scott Alexander makes yearly predictions on SSC/ACX. This year, I avoided looking at his blog post so I could make my own unanchored predictions about the same topics, using a copy of the post with Scott’s probabilities removed. Then I looked at his and others’ numbers, to see how much they update me.
For each question...
Bullet #1 is my initial Apr. 27 guess, based on about 20-120 seconds of googling and/or thinking.
Bullet #2 is my revised prediction after talking to my boyfriend and seeing their unanchored predictions.
Bullet #3 is my revised prediction after seeing Scott’s probabilities (SA).
Bullet #4 is my revised Apr. 29 prediction after seeing Zvi Mowshowitz’s arguments and probabilities (ZM) and market prices collected and interpreted by SimonM (MS).
My numbers were influenced a lot by the fact that I expect to round to the nearest 10% (or to 1% / 5% / 95% / 99% at the extremes) to check calibration.
US/WORLD
1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%: [SA 80, ZM 80, MS 61]
Initial: 73%
Post-Boyfriend: 73%
Post-Scott: 75%
Final: 75%
2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don’t have to be appointed by end of year): [SA 5, ZM 5, MS ~4-5+]
5%
7%
4%
4%
3. Yang is New York mayor: [SA 80, ZM 70, SM 69-77]
85%
85%
82%
74%
4. Newsom recalled as CA governor: [SA 5, ZM ?, MS ~7]
4%
6%
4%
10%
5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: [SA 30, ZM ≤20]
45%
45%
30%
19%
6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket): [SA 20, ZM 20]
40%
40%
20%
23%
7. Trump is allowed back on Twitter: [SA 20, ZM 10]
7%
8%
13%
12%
8. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule: [SA 70, ZM 80, MS 75]
66%
66%
66%
74%
9. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war: [SA 20, ZM ≤15, MS ~16]
6%
6%
20%
14%
10. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: [SA 5, ZM 5-~15]
3%
3%
3%
11%
11. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: [SA 5, ZM 3]
2%
2%
2%
2%
12. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM: [SA 40, ZM 30, MS 22]
86%
86%
40%
35%
13. Prospera has at least 1000 residents: [SA 30, ZM 30]
13%
15%
24%
21%
ECON/TECH
14. Gamestop stock price still above $100: [SA 50, ZM 50, MS 60]
39%
39%
50%
59%
15. Bitcoin above 100K: [SA 40, ZM 25, MS 25]
20%
20%
36%
18%
16. Ethereum above 5K: [SA 50, ZM 30, MS 11]
20%
20%
40%
19%
17. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: [SA 70, ZM 55, MS ~33]
50%
50%
65%
50%
18. Dow above 35K: [SA 90, ZM<<90, MS 50]
77%
77%
90%
50%
19. …above 37.5K: [SA 70, ZM ?, MS 20]
48%
48%
70%
20%
20. Unemployment above 5%: [SA 40, ZM 50, MS 37]
74%
74%
55%
55%
21. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: [SA 20, ZM 30]
18%
20%
20%
23%
22. Starship reaches orbit: [SA 60, ZM 60, MS 50]
42%
45%
60%
57%
COVID
23. Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2021: [SA 30, ZM 70]
48%
48%
32%
52%
24. Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2021: [SA 1, ZM 1]
8%
8%
0.8%
3%
25. Greater than 66% of US population vaccinated against COVID: [SA 50, ZM 60, MS ~77+]
69%
69%
59%
59%
26. India’s official case count is higher than US: [SA 50, ZM ≥80]
70%
70%
55%
75%
27. Vitamin D is [not] generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment: [SA 70, ZM 50 (but mistook SA as 30), MS ~75-85]
93%
93%
81%
81%
28. Something else not currently used becomes first-line treatment for COVID: [SA 40, ZM 25]
29%
36%
40%
40%
29. Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases: [SA 50, ZM 60]
35%
42%
44%
52%
30. Some new variant where no existing vaccine is more than 50% effective: [SA 40, ZM ≤25]
8%
10%
27%
17%
31. US approves AstraZeneca vaccine: [SA 20, ZM 20, MS 37]
68%
65%
20%
20%
32. Most people I see in the local grocery store aren’t wearing a mask: [SA 60, ZM 75]
53%
53%
60%
69%
COMMUNITY
33. Major rationalist org leaves Bay Area: [SA 60, ZM ?]
91%
91%
89%
89%
34-37. [redacted] []
38. No new residents at our housing cluster: [SA 40, ZM 35]
20%
20%
40%
37%
39. No current residents leave our housing cluster: [SA 60, ZM 65]
48%
48%
60%
56%
40-52. [redacted] []
53. At least seven days my house is orange or worse on PurpleAir.com because of fires: [SA 80, ZM 80]
53%
55%
80%
80%
PERSONAL
54-59. [redacted] []
60. There are no appraisal-related complications to the new house purchase: [SA 50, ZM 60]
30%
40%
50%
60%
61. I live in the new house: [SA 95, ZM 90]
82%
82%
93%
92%
62. I live in the top bedroom: [SA 60, ZM 65]
67%
67%
58%
65%
63. I can hear / get annoyed by neighbor TV noise: [SA 40, ZM 30]
58%
58%
40%
37%
64. I’m playing in a D&D campaign: [SA 70, ZM 70]
20%
20%
70%
68%
65. I go on at least one international trip: [SA 60, ZM 60]
26%
26%
60%
57%
66. I spend at least a month living somewhere other than the Bay: [SA 50, ZM 50]
17%
17%
50%
50%
67. I continue my current exercise routine (and get through an entire cycle of it) in Q4 2021: [SA 70, ZM 65]
17%
15%
63%
60%
68. I meditate at least 15 days in Q4 2021: [SA 60, ZM 60]
15%
15%
60%
59%
69. I take oroxylum at least 5 times in Q4 2021: [SA 40, ZM 40]
20%
20%
38%
38%
70. I take some substance I haven’t discovered yet at least 5 times in Q4 2021 (testing exempted): [SA 30, ZM 25]
31%
31%
30%
24%
71. I do at least six new biohacking experiments in the next eight months: [SA 40, ZM 40]
36%
36%
36%
38%
72. [redacted] []
73. The Twitter account I check most frequently isn’t one of the five I check frequently now: [SA 20, ZM 15]
48%
48%
20%
24%
74. I make/retweet at least 25 tweets between now and 2022: [SA 70, ZM 75]
60%
60%
70%
70%
WORK
75. Lorien has 100+ patients: [SA 90, ZM 85]
58%
58%
90%
87%
76. 150+ patients: [SA 20, ZM 25]
45%
45%
20%
21%
77. 200+ patients: [SA 5, ZM 5-10]
38%
37%
9%
8%
78. I’ve written at least ten more Lorien writeups (so total at least 27): [SA 30, ZM 30]
43%
43%
24%
24%
79-83. [redacted] []
84. I have switched medical records systems: [SA 20, ZM 15]
46%
50%
20%
20%
85. I have changed my pricing scheme: [SA 20, ZM 20]
28%
34%
20%
20%
BLOG
86. ACX is earning more money than it is right now: [SA 70, ZM 80]
65%
65%
70%
72%
87-89. [redacted] []
90. There is another article primarily about SSC/ACX/me in a major news source: [SA 10, ZM 25]
75%
71%
23%
23%
91. I subscribe to at least 5 new Substacks (so total of 8): [SA 20, ZM 30]
13%
18%
20%
20%
92. I’ve read and reviewed How Asia Works: [SA 90, ZM 90]
50%
53%
88%
88%
93. I’ve read and reviewed Nixonland: [SA 70, ZM 70]
45%
56%
65%
66%
94. I’ve read and reviewed Scout Mindset: [SA 60, ZM 70]
59%
60%
60%
63%
95. I’ve read and reviewed at least two more dictator books: [SA 50, ZM 45]
42%
42%
42%
42%
96. I’ve started and am at least 25% of the way through the formal editing process for Unsong: [SA 30, ZM 30]
60%
63%
30%
29%
97. Unsong is published: [SA 10, ZM 10]
15%
42%
14%
14%
98. I’ve written at least five chapters of some non-Unsong book I hope to publish: [SA 40]
41%
39%
40%
40%
99. [redacted] wins the book review contest: [SA 60, ZM 50]
8%
8%
52%
48%
100. I run an ACX reader survey: [SA 50, ZM 50]
55%
53%
48%
48%
101. I run a normal ACX survey (must start, but not necessarily finish, before end of year): [SA 90, ZM 90]
65%
65%
86%
84%
102. By end of year, some other post beats NYT commentary for my most popular post: [SA 10, ZM 10]
65%
65%
13%
14%
103. I finish and post the culture wars essay I’m working on: [SA 90, ZM 90]
38%
40%
85%
85%
104. I finish and post the climate change essay I’m working on: [SA 80, ZM 80]
46%
47%
80%
80%
105. I finish and post the CO2 essay I’m working on: [SA 80, ZM 80]
49%
52%
80%
80%
106. I have a queue of fewer than ten extra posts: [SA 70, ZM 60]
57%
57%
70%
60%
META
107. I double my current amount of money ($1000) on PredictIt: [SA 10, ZM 15]
49%
49%
10%
22%
108. I post my scores on these predictions before 3/1/22: [SA 70, ZM 75]
54%
54%
63%
64%
Does “vaccinated” mean at least one dose? Or “fully” vaccinated?
Should be ‘at least one dose’. I don’t see a reason to treat ‘one dose of Moderna’ as categorically unlike ‘one dose of J&J’.
In all cases of ambiguity, I’m assuming Scott Alexander’s the arbiter—these are really predictions about what Scott will judge the answer to be come end-of-2021.