Not knowing n(-) results in not knowing expected utility of b (for any given b), because you won’t know how the terms a(n(a), n(a)) are formed.
(And also the whole being given numeric codes of programs as arguments thing gets weird when you are postulated to be unable to interpret what the codes mean. The point of Newcomblike problems is that you get to reason about behavior of specific agents.)
It’s about world size, not computation, and has a startling effect that probably won’t occur again with future chips, since Blackwell sufficiently catches up to models at the current scale.
The projection for 2025 is $12bn at 3x/year growth (1.1x per month, so $1.7bn per month at the end of 2025, $3bn per month in mid-2026), and my pessimistic timeline above assumes that this continues up to either end of 2025 or mid-2026 and then stops growing after the hypothetical “crash”, which gives $20-36bn per year.