RSS

Pre­dic­tion Markets

TagLast edit: Sep 7, 2023, 10:07 AM by Yoav Ravid

Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event or parameter. The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Prediction markets are thus structured as betting exchanges, without any risk for the bookmaker. Robin Hanson was the first to run a corporate prediction market—at Project Xanadu -, and has made several contributions to the field such as: conditional predictions, accuracy issues and market and media manipulation.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.

Predictions markets have been used by organizations such as Google, General Electric, and Microsoft; several online and commercial prediction markets are also in operation. Historically, prediction markets have often been used to predict election outcomes.

See Also

External Posts

External Links

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets: When Do They Work?

ZviJul 26, 2018, 12:30 PM
169 points
19 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How I Learned To Stop Trust­ing Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets and Love the Arbitrage

orthonormalAug 6, 2024, 2:32 AM
198 points
30 comments3 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Share Splitting

DaemonicSigilSep 11, 2023, 4:08 AM
93 points
16 comments9 min readLW link
(pbement.com)

Limits of Cur­rent US Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets (Pre­dic­tIt Case Study)

aphyerJul 14, 2020, 7:24 AM
210 points
50 comments7 min readLW link

Launch­ing Fore­cast, a com­mu­nity for crowd­sourced pre­dic­tions from Facebook

Rebecca KossnickOct 20, 2020, 6:20 AM
111 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Sub­si­diz­ing Pre­dic­tion Markets

ZviAug 17, 2018, 3:40 PM
97 points
8 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Un­known Knowns

ZviAug 28, 2018, 1:20 PM
120 points
17 comments2 min readLW link1 review
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Am­bi­guity in Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Re­s­olu­tion is Harmful

aphyerSep 26, 2022, 4:22 PM
69 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

Will Je­sus Christ re­turn in an elec­tion year?

Eric NeymanMar 24, 2025, 4:50 PM
330 points
46 comments4 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Tales from Pre­dic­tion Markets

ikeApr 3, 2021, 11:38 PM
128 points
15 comments3 min readLW link1 review
(misinfounderload.substack.com)

The Base Rate Times, news through pre­dic­tion markets

vandemonianJun 6, 2023, 5:42 PM
268 points
41 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Science

VaniverJan 2, 2023, 5:55 PM
27 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Markets

eva_Nov 2, 2022, 1:24 AM
46 points
6 comments12 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion mar­kets for in­ter­net points?

paulfchristianoOct 27, 2019, 7:30 PM
47 points
9 comments5 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets aren’t Magic

SimonMDec 21, 2023, 12:54 PM
90 points
29 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets are for Out­comes Beyond Our Control

lsusrFeb 9, 2022, 9:54 AM
59 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Free Money at Pre­dic­tIt?

ZviSep 26, 2019, 4:10 PM
49 points
17 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Cross­post] ACX 2022 Pre­dic­tion Con­test Results

Jan 24, 2023, 6:56 AM
48 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

The Bayesian Tyrant

abramdemskiAug 20, 2020, 12:08 AM
143 points
21 comments6 min readLW link1 review

Pre­dict­ing the fu­ture with the power of the In­ter­net (and piss­ing off Rob Miles)

WriterDec 15, 2023, 5:37 PM
23 points
9 comments4 min readLW link
(youtu.be)

Ukraine Post #1: Pre­dic­tion Markets

ZviFeb 28, 2022, 7:20 PM
67 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Is there a good way to award a fixed prize in a pre­dic­tion con­test?

jchanNov 2, 2022, 9:37 PM
18 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Are Me­tac­u­lus AI Timelines In­con­sis­tent?

Chris_LeongJan 2, 2024, 6:47 AM
17 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Self-Re­solv­ing Pre­dic­tion Markets

PeterMcCluskeyMar 3, 2024, 2:39 AM
33 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(bayesianinvestor.com)

Hiring de­ci­sions are not suit­able for pre­dic­tion markets

SimonMJan 8, 2024, 9:11 PM
12 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Sim­ple Kelly bet­ting in pre­dic­tion markets

jessicataMar 6, 2024, 6:59 PM
38 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(unstablerontology.substack.com)

Con­di­tional pre­dic­tion mar­kets are ev­i­den­tial, not causal

philhFeb 7, 2024, 9:52 PM
55 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Are Mediocre

Ape in the coatApr 5, 2025, 6:54 AM
4 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Are About Be­ing Right

ZviDec 8, 2018, 2:00 PM
83 points
7 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Open Sourc­ing Metaculus

ChristianWilliamsJul 2, 2024, 10:30 PM
44 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Am­bi­guity in Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Re­s­olu­tion is Still Harmful

aphyerJul 31, 2024, 8:32 PM
43 points
17 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions as Public Works Pro­ject — What Me­tac­u­lus Is Build­ing Next

ChristianWilliamsOct 22, 2024, 4:35 PM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

The Sum­moned Heroine’s Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Keep Pro­vid­ing Fi­nan­cial Ser­vices To The De­mon King!

abstractapplicOct 26, 2024, 12:34 PM
164 points
16 comments7 min readLW link

Op­ti­miz­ing Prob­lem-Solv­ing Strate­gies Through Pre­dic­tion Markets

patrik-cihalNov 22, 2024, 7:58 PM
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly bettors

DanielFilanNov 13, 2018, 12:40 AM
24 points
3 comments10 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Please Bet On My Quan­tified Self De­ci­sion Markets

niplavDec 1, 2023, 8:07 PM
36 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

Help fore­cast study repli­ca­tion in this so­cial sci­ence pre­dic­tion market

rosiecamAug 7, 2019, 6:18 PM
29 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

On Robin Han­son’s Board Game

ZviSep 8, 2018, 5:10 PM
49 points
15 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How to In­ter­pret Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Prices as Probabilities

SimonMMay 9, 2023, 2:12 PM
14 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

[Question] When does adding more peo­ple re­li­ably make a sys­tem bet­ter?

Bird ConceptJul 19, 2019, 4:21 AM
30 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

List of pre­vi­ous pre­dic­tion mar­ket projects

Bird ConceptOct 22, 2018, 12:45 AM
32 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(jacoblagerros.wordpress.com)

Should you an­nounce your bets pub­li­cly?

Ege ErdilJul 4, 2023, 12:11 AM
17 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

How to make real-money pre­dic­tion mar­kets on ar­bi­trary top­ics (Out­dated)

yutakaJul 30, 2023, 2:11 AM
57 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

ZviOct 18, 2020, 10:40 PM
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What are good elec­tion bet­ting op­por­tu­ni­ties?

Scott GarrabrantOct 29, 2020, 7:19 AM
32 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Time Travel Mar­kets for In­tel­lec­tual Accounting

abramdemskiNov 9, 2020, 4:58 PM
45 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Charts

Rafael HarthNov 13, 2020, 4:12 PM
29 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion mar­kets cov­ered in the NYT pod­cast “Hard Fork”

Austin ChenOct 13, 2023, 6:43 PM
56 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nytimes.com)

Re­s­olu­tions to the Challenge of Re­solv­ing Forecasts

DavidmanheimMar 11, 2021, 7:08 PM
58 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

The Apoca­lypse Bet

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 9, 2007, 5:23 PM
50 points
51 comments1 min readLW link

Covid Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets at Polymarket

ZviDec 2, 2021, 12:50 PM
39 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Poly­mar­ket Covid-19 1/​17/​2022

ZviJan 17, 2022, 4:10 PM
38 points
10 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2022

NunoSempereFeb 3, 2022, 7:22 PM
17 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Bet on Rare Un­de­sir­able Out­comes when Seed­ing a Pre­dic­tion Market

lsusrFeb 10, 2022, 12:20 AM
33 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Your Ene­mies Can Use Your Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Against You

lsusrFeb 10, 2022, 10:37 AM
42 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Ukraine #4: Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Move­ment Modeling

ZviMar 15, 2022, 10:20 PM
28 points
2 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ukraine Post #7: Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Update

ZviMar 28, 2022, 4:10 PM
45 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Anti-Cor­rup­tion Market

lsusrApr 1, 2022, 12:57 PM
103 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

Us­ing Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets to Guide Govern­ment Policy

lsusrApr 1, 2022, 10:21 AM
38 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing for charity

Austin ChenMay 2, 2022, 10:59 PM
43 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How “should” coun­ter­fac­tual pre­dic­tion mar­kets work?

eapiJun 25, 2022, 5:44 PM
9 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt is clos­ing due to CFTC chang­ing its mind

eigenAug 6, 2022, 3:34 AM
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Post­mortem: Try­ing out for Man­i­fold Markets

Sep 8, 2022, 5:54 PM
24 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Will Man­i­fold Mar­kets/​Me­tac­u­lus have built-in sup­port for re­flec­tive la­tent vari­ables by 2025?

tailcalledDec 10, 2022, 1:55 PM
34 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Two Truths and a Pre­dic­tion Market

ScrewtapeDec 23, 2022, 6:52 PM
22 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

La­tent vari­ables for pre­dic­tion mar­kets: mo­ti­va­tion, tech­ni­cal guide, and de­sign considerations

tailcalledFeb 12, 2023, 5:54 PM
100 points
25 comments23 min readLW link2 reviews

[LINK] Get paid to train your rationality

XFrequentistAug 3, 2011, 3:01 PM
40 points
55 comments3 min readLW link

Towards no-math, graph­i­cal in­struc­tions for pre­dic­tion markets

ryan_bJan 4, 2019, 4:39 PM
30 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Explained

Benjamin_SturiskyJul 29, 2024, 8:02 AM
8 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion mar­ket se­quence requested

[deleted]Oct 26, 2012, 10:59 AM
39 points
45 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket: Will I Pull “The One Ring To Rule Them All?”

Connor TabarrokJun 28, 2023, 2:41 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

Pre­dict­ing: Quick Start

duck_masterJul 1, 2023, 3:43 AM
9 points
3 comments14 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive Rea­son­ing Systems

ozziegooenFeb 20, 2019, 7:44 PM
27 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Acausal Now: We could to­tally acausally bar­gain with aliens at our cur­rent tech level if desired

Christopher KingAug 9, 2023, 12:50 AM
1 point
5 comments4 min readLW link

Me­dia Publi­ca­tion Governed by Pre­dic­tion Markets

joao_abrantesSep 30, 2022, 10:01 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(joao-abrantes.com)

An­nounc­ing Man­i­fest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

Aug 14, 2023, 5:13 AM
31 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Bet On Biden

sapphireOct 17, 2020, 10:03 PM
42 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] In­ter­est­ing pre­dic­tions on man­i­fold.markets

jmhOct 1, 2022, 4:09 PM
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

De­sign­ing Ar­tifi­cial Wis­dom: De­ci­sion Fore­cast­ing AI & Futarchy

Jordan ArelJul 15, 2024, 12:46 AM
1 point
1 comment6 min readLW link

In­trade and the Dow Drop

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 1, 2008, 3:12 AM
4 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

How To Make Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Use­ful For Align­ment Work

johnswentworthOct 18, 2022, 7:01 PM
97 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Real-time hiring with pre­dic­tion markets

ryan_bNov 9, 2018, 10:10 PM
17 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion should be a sport

chaosmageAug 10, 2017, 7:55 AM
22 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt, a pre­dic­tion mar­ket out of New Zealand, now in beta.

Jayson_VirissimoMar 16, 2015, 2:02 AM
21 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for the Long Slump

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 22, 2009, 8:56 AM
12 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

AI Re­search Pro­gram Pre­dic­tion Markets

tailcalledOct 20, 2022, 1:42 PM
38 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Carlo: un­cer­tainty anal­y­sis in Google Sheets

ProbabilityEnjoyerMar 19, 2024, 5:59 PM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(carlo.app)

Last Chance: Get tick­ets to Man­i­fest 2023! (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

Sep 6, 2023, 10:35 AM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

2011 In­trade fee changes, or, In­trade con­sid­ered no longer use­ful for LessWrongers

gwernJan 2, 2011, 5:46 PM
34 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­gram­matic Pre­dic­tion markets

whpearsonApr 25, 2009, 9:29 AM
7 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

When will GPT-5 come out? Pre­dic­tion mar­kets vs. Extrapolation

MalteDec 12, 2023, 2:41 AM
12 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Share your per­sonal sto­ries of pre­dic­tion markets

Tim LiptrotNov 4, 2020, 4:09 PM
15 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Im­pacts of AI on the hous­ing markets

PottedRosePetalOct 5, 2023, 9:24 PM
8 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Recom­men­da­tion for a good in­ter­na­tional event bet­ting site like pre­dic­tit.org

df fdDec 7, 2020, 9:09 AM
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

OPTIC: An­nounc­ing In­ter­col­le­giate Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ments in SF, DC, Boston

Oct 13, 2023, 1:36 AM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Mar­kets 2: Op­ti­mally Shaped Re­ward Bets

eva_Nov 3, 2022, 11:08 AM
9 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Pro­mot­ing Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets With Mean­ingless In­ter­net-Point Badges

1a3ornFeb 8, 2021, 7:03 PM
59 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

We need bet­ter pre­dic­tion markets

eigenNov 15, 2022, 4:54 AM
9 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­ploit­ing Crypto Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Fun and Profit

Srdjan MileticMar 13, 2021, 2:31 AM
31 points
25 comments5 min readLW link

Vio­lat­ing the EMH—Pre­dic­tion Markets

sapphireMar 28, 2021, 4:05 AM
40 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Spec­u­la­tions Con­cern­ing the First Free-ish Pre­dic­tion Market

mike_hawkeMar 31, 2021, 3:20 AM
29 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Guardian ar­ti­cle cov­er­ing Light­cone In­fras­truc­ture, Man­i­fest and CFAR ties to FTX

ROMJun 17, 2024, 10:05 AM
8 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(www.theguardian.com)

[Question] Is Ray Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tion ac­cu­racy still be­ing tracked?

CraigMichaelMay 20, 2021, 12:06 AM
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

An In­tro­duc­tion to Pre­dic­tion Markets

AnnapurnaJun 14, 2021, 4:43 PM
9 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

Risk Premiums vs Pre­dic­tion Markets

SimonMJul 28, 2021, 11:03 PM
35 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

Notes on an Ex­per­i­ment with Markets

Jeffrey HeningerNov 23, 2022, 4:10 PM
8 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices—Resolution

SimonMJan 2, 2022, 11:55 AM
56 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

How pre­dic­tion mar­kets can cre­ate harm­ful out­comes: a case study

B JacobsApr 2, 2025, 3:37 PM
31 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(bobjacobs.substack.com)

Create a pre­dic­tion mar­ket in two min­utes on Man­i­fold Markets

Feb 9, 2022, 5:36 PM
58 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

LMSR sub­sidy pa­ram­e­ter is the price of information

Abhimanyu Pallavi SudhirMay 25, 2024, 6:05 PM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ver­bal par­ity: What is it and how to mea­sure it? + an ed­ited ver­sion of “Against John Searle, Gary Mar­cus, the Chi­nese Room thought ex­per­i­ment and its world”

philosophybearDec 31, 2022, 3:46 AM
2 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

Cap­tur­ing Uncer­tainty in Pre­dic­tion Markets

hawkebiaFeb 24, 2022, 5:23 PM
2 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Cy­berE­con­omy. The Limits to Growth

Feb 16, 2025, 9:02 PM
−3 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

2022 ACX pre­dic­tions: mar­ket prices

Sam MarksMar 6, 2022, 6:24 AM
21 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Run­ning a Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Mafia Game

Arjun PanicksseryFeb 1, 2024, 11:24 PM
22 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(arjunpanickssery.substack.com)

[Question] Why have in­surance mar­kets suc­ceeded where pre­dic­tion mar­kets have not?

JNankJan 21, 2024, 12:35 AM
13 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Stop-gra­di­ents lead to fixed point predictions

Jan 28, 2023, 10:47 PM
37 points
2 comments24 min readLW link

Pat­terns or get­ting to Ob­jec­tive Truth – A thought piece on Ar­tifi­cial Intelligence

Thehumanproject.aiOct 20, 2024, 4:45 PM
1 point
0 comments8 min readLW link

The Great Bootstrap

KristianRonnOct 11, 2024, 7:46 PM
12 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

Pat­terns or get­ting to Ob­jec­tive Truth – A thought piece on Ar­tifi­cial Intelligence

Thehumanproject.aiOct 20, 2024, 4:45 PM
1 point
0 comments8 min readLW link

No, the Poly­mar­ket price does not mean we can im­me­di­ately con­clude what the prob­a­bil­ity of a bird flu pan­demic is. We also need to know the in­ter­est rate!

Christopher KingDec 28, 2024, 4:05 PM
7 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

The Mys­te­ri­ous Trump Buy­ers on Polymarket

AnnapurnaOct 18, 2024, 1:26 PM
52 points
10 comments2 min readLW link
(jorgevelez.substack.com)

Cu­rated blind auc­tion pre­dic­tion mar­kets and a rep­u­ta­tion sys­tem as an al­ter­na­tive to ed­i­to­rial re­view in news pub­li­ca­tion.

ciaran Feb 9, 2023, 6:48 PM
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing a global catas­tro­phe: the Ukrainian model

RomanSApr 7, 2022, 12:06 PM
5 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Up­date on the Mys­te­ri­ous Trump Buy­ers on Polymarket

AnnapurnaNov 4, 2024, 7:22 PM
19 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(jorgevelez.substack.com)

Manafold Mar­kets is out of mana 🤭

Austin ChenApr 1, 2022, 10:07 PM
36 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

The Differ­ence Between Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets and De­bate (Ar­gu­ment) Maps

Jamie JoyceJan 15, 2025, 11:19 PM
6 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AGI: In­sights from Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets and Metaculus

Alvin ÅnestrandFeb 4, 2025, 1:03 PM
13 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Launch­ing Ad­ja­cent News

Lucas KohorstOct 16, 2024, 5:58 PM
24 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity of AI-Caused Disaster

Alvin ÅnestrandFeb 12, 2025, 7:40 PM
2 points
2 comments10 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Miss­ing fore­cast­ing tools: from cat­a­logs to a new kind of pre­dic­tion market

MichaelLatowickiMar 29, 2023, 9:55 AM
14 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Aiming for Con­ver­gence Is Like Dis­cour­ag­ing Betting

Zack_M_DavisFeb 1, 2023, 12:03 AM
62 points
18 comments11 min readLW link1 review

Zvi’s Man­i­fold Mar­kets House Rules

ZviNov 13, 2023, 12:28 AM
53 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Bet­ting on what is un-falsifi­able and un-verifiable

Abhimanyu Pallavi SudhirNov 14, 2023, 9:11 PM
13 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

Solv­ing Two-Sided Ad­verse Selec­tion with Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Matchmaking

Saul MunnNov 26, 2023, 8:10 PM
16 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(www.brasstacks.blog)

Scal­ing pre­dic­tion mar­kets with meta-markets

DentosalOct 10, 2024, 9:17 PM
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Link Col­lec­tion: Im­pact Markets

Saul MunnDec 26, 2023, 9:01 AM
27 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.brasstacks.blog)

Ex­pected Value vs. Ex­pected Growth

tom-pollakJun 5, 2022, 6:48 PM
3 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

2024 Elec­tion Fore­cast­ing Contest

mike20731Oct 5, 2024, 8:43 PM
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.mikesblog.net)

Ra­tion­al­ism and so­cial rationalism

philosophybearMar 10, 2023, 11:20 PM
17 points
5 comments10 min readLW link
(philosophybear.substack.com)

Pre­dic­tion mar­kets meetup/​cowork­ing (hosted by Man­i­fold Mar­kets)

Jul 26, 2022, 12:14 AM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

1001 Pre­dic­tionBook Nights

gwernOct 8, 2011, 4:04 PM
72 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

How well did Man­i­fold pre­dict GPT-4?

David CheeMar 15, 2023, 11:19 PM
49 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion-Aug­mented Eval­u­a­tion Systems

ozziegooenNov 9, 2018, 10:55 AM
44 points
12 comments8 min readLW link

Buy Now Or For­ever Hold Your Peace

Eliezer YudkowskyFeb 4, 2008, 9:42 PM
39 points
58 comments1 min readLW link

Pon­der­ing the paucity of vol­canic pro­fan­ity post Pom­peii perusal

CraigMichaelSep 1, 2022, 9:29 AM
21 points
2 comments15 min readLW link

Man­i­fold Pre­dicted the AI Ex­tinc­tion State­ment and CAIS Wanted it Deleted

David CheeJun 12, 2023, 3:54 PM
71 points
15 comments12 min readLW link

Do Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Work?

Benjamin_SturiskyAug 1, 2024, 2:31 AM
7 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Ques­tion for Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket peo­ple: where is the money sup­posed to come from?

Robert_AIZIJun 8, 2023, 1:58 PM
25 points
26 comments1 min readLW link