Saul Munn
Get your tickets to Manifest 2024 by May 13th!
thanks oli, and thanks for editing mine! appreciate the modding <3
The Inner Ring by C. S. Lewis
thanks for writing this — also, some broad social encouragement for the practice of doing quick/informal lit reviews + posting them publicly! well done :)
that is… wild. thanks for sharing!
I think institutional market makers are basically not pricing [slow takeoff, or the expectation of one] in
why do you think they’re not pricing this in?
Really love this post. Thanks for writing it!
thanks for the feedback on the website. here’s the explanation we gave on the manifest announcement post:
In the week between LessOnline and Manifest, come hang out at Lighthaven with other attendees! Cowork and share meals during the day, attend casual workshops and talks in the evening, and enjoy conversations by the (again, literal) fire late into the night.
Summer Camp will be pretty lightweight: we’ll provide the space and the tools, and you & your fellow attendees will bring the discussions, workshops, tournaments, games, and whatever else you’re excited about organizing.
Here are the types of events you’ll see at Summer Camp:
Hackathons (or “Forecastathons”)
Organized discussions and workshops
Jam sessions and dance parties
Games of all kinds: social deception games, poker, MTG, jackbox, etc.
Campy activities: sardines, s’mores, singalongs
Multi-day intensive workshops, e.g. a CFAR-style workshop or a Quantitative Trading Bootcamp (Note: these may come at some extra cost, TBD by the organizers)
let me know if you have other questions.
Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)
Retro funder profile & Manifund team recs (ACX Grants 2024: Impact Market)
I really enjoyed this — thank you for writing. I also think the updated version is a lot better than the previous version, and I appreciate the work you put in to update it. I’m really, really looking forward to the other posts in this sequence.
I’d also really enjoy a post that’s on this exact topic, but one that I’d feel comfortable sending to my mom or something, cf “Broad adverse selection (for poets).”
Invest in ACX Grants projects!
relevant: story-based decision-making
the name of this post was really confusing for me. i thought it would be about “how to stop defeating akrasia,” not “how to defeat akrasia by stopping.” consider renaming it to be a bit more clear?
the part at the end really reminded me of this piece by dr mciver: https://notebook.drmaciver.com/posts/2022-12-20-17:21.html
Things You’re Allowed to Do: University Edition
Explaining Impact Markets
+1 on Things You’re Allowed To Do, it’s really really great
here are some specific, random, generally small things that i do quite often:
sit on the floor. i notice myself wanting to sit, and i notice myself lacking a chair. fortunately, the floor is always there.
explicitly babble! i babble about thoughts that are bouncing around in my head, no matter the topic! open a new doc — docs.new works well, or whatever you use — set a 5 minute timer, and just babble. write whatever comes to mind.
message effective/competent people to cowork with them. i’m probably not the most effective/competent person you know, but feel free practice this with me!
board airplanes close to last, intentionally. i do this to avoid pushing through the lines, and to give myself an extra ~15 minutes to work in the airport terminal.
write out informal/babbled decision docs for big/important decisions. i’ve done this ~5 times over the last 6 months, and it both helps me during the decision (forces me to make my thoughts/worries/hopes concrete, lets me get quick thoughts/advice from friends, etc) and after the decision (i can remind myself why i originally made the decision, regardless of what ends up happening).
actually doing a lot of the things on this list
after or while doing something with someone else (a long conversation, a group project, a friendship, a ski trip, etc) asking them “what was the worst thing i did?”
waking myself up by intentionally getting water up my nose, then blowing it
pick a few things — about 3-8 — that look pretty good on a menu. ask siri to pick a random number, 1 through [number of things that looked good]. that’s now my default order; if i want, i can order something else, but i should have a pretty strong reason.
when sending someone a list of questions, send them in a accompanying accompanying list of the answers that are likely correct, so that they can just say “yes” or “actually no, it’s _____.” it cuts down on the amount of time they have to spend answering my questions significantly.
here are some more general mental TAPs that i’ve accidentally burned into my brain:
“gahhh, i wish [x] thing existed!” → “could i make [x]?”
“boy, [x] is annoying/bad/disruptive/generally a problem.” → “could i solve [x]?”
“now that i think about it, [person] is actually a really rare & awesome person.” → “could i text/call them right now?”
“i don’t like [x] about myself/my environment/the people i hang out with/my workspace/etc.” → “could i change [x]?”
“i hate that i always have to do [x].” → “what would happen if i didn’t do [x]? would i take damage? if so, would i take more damage than the damage i’m currently taking while forcing myself to do [x]?”
“ooh, i have to remember to [x].” → “should i set an alarm/reminder/calendar event about [x]?” (almost always: yes, you should)
“that’s a great idea.” → “should i quickly write a sentence about this down in my notes app? even just a sazen for my future self?”
“i should do [x].” → “do i have a concrete plan for doing [x] that’s worked in relevantly similar situations for me in the past? if not, how am i expecting to get [x] done?”
[in a meeting] “great, let’s make sure to get [x] done.” → “is there one clear person who’s owning this? who’s responsible if it doesn’t get done, and in charge of making sure it does get done? do i trust this person to actually get [x] done?”
“hmm, i’m realizing that i’ve built up a really big ugh field around [x].” → “[insert generic strategies for dealing with ugh fields; i think mine are mediocre, so would love to hear others’]”
notes:
most of the above was stolen from this thread
the actions above are questions that i ask myself, not concrete actions i force myself to do. they’re sorta like saying “hey, here’s a concrete action you could take — do you want to?” most of the time, my internal response is “nah, i’m good.” but sometimes, my internal response is “actually, yeah! let’s do this!” importantly, the questions are meant to reduce friction toward acting on your available options, not imply an obligation to those options.
i’ll give two answers, the Official Event Guidelines and the practical social environment.[1] i will say that i have have a bit of a COI in that i’m an event organizer; it’d be good if someone who isn’t organizing the event, but e.g. attended the event last year, to either second my thoughts or give their own.
Official Event Guidelines
Unsafe drug use of any kind is disallowed and strongly discouraged, both by the venue and by us.
Illegal drug use is disallowed and strongly discouraged, both by the venue and by us.
Alcohol use during the event is discouraged, but you can bring & drink your own if you drink responsibly. However, at the official afterparty (and possibly at some points during Summer Camp), we may serve drinks. Broadly, our rules with regard to alcohol are “drink responsibly; please don’t drink during the day; definitely don’t drink if you’re going to drink irresponsibly, because that will be no fun for us and definitely no fun for you.” The social environment will not be conducive to alcohol during the day, and probably not super conducive at night.
practical social environment
during the main event, drugs & alcohol are pretty strongly discouraged. it makes the event lower quality for everyone.
during the official afterparty, we’ll probably serve alcohol in moderate, safe amounts. we will not be serving drugs, and the social environment will probably not be very conducive to drugs.
i could imagine that external, unofficial parties/meetups/etc have a different vibe. for these, my guess is that if you can imagine something between a regular conference meetup at a bar and a college party, you’re probably somewhere on the right track. note that you are on your own if you attend external, unnofficial parties.
for future reference, i do not necessarily endorse the practical social environment. more formally, the stance i take was written in the first bullet point (the Official Event Guidelines), regardless of anything written in the second bullet point.