Great prediction! It feels pretty insane to see this being predicted in 2021. In hindsight there are some oversights, for example I feel like the whole year 2023 can probably be condensed a bit, 2024 seems to also fit to 2023 in many aspects. Honestly its also astonishing how well you predicted the hype cycle.
What I truly wonder is what your prediction would be now? After all a few major shifts in landscape came up within the last half year or so, namely open source reaching quite a high level relative to SOTA public models, compute turning out to be the bottleneck more than anything else, inference time, the hype being quite divergent between the biggest and lowest hype—in some parts it seems to completely collapse and in some parts it seems to be over the moon. In that regard some comment prediction about programmers is quite interesting, they really are not fans of AI anymore, I dare not say out of fear they will be getting replaced though, more like they refuse to be scared and just claim its worse than them so there is no need to be scared. Timelines for AGI, or whatever you want to call superhuman general AIs, which I think are plausible seem to consolidate towards 2027. Do you agree with that?
What would the stock market post-AGI (or whatever you want to call it) look like? I really wonder if its worth investing in stock right now. I wonder if we can expect a huge market crash when most economic value is concentrated on one or two companies, or unlisted companies. That would basically drain the entire stock market, and doesnt sound entirely unrealistic.
Another option of course is that the stocks explode since the companies produce so so much value. I am sceptical of that. The question is—can we trust the superrich to keep the stock market up or will they jump ship once they notice AI might take over? How will we notice before the average business man notices? Once the superrich jump ship and dump all their stocks because AIs can create their own companies that can do everything better, my savings in form of stock would mean… not much.
So is it better to just save “raw money”? Or something inbetween, some part as normal money and some as stock, which one should be quick to dump once AI hits a certain point? I wonder what your thoughts are on this, I havent found a discussion about it on here, though I am sure it exists.