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Heuris­tics & Biases

TagLast edit: Mar 19, 2023, 9:30 PM by Diabloto96

Heuristics and Biases are the ways human reasoning differs from a theoretical ideal agent, due to reasoning shortcuts that don’t always work (heuristics) and systematic errors (biases).

See also: Affect Heuristic, Confirmation Bias, Fallacies, Predictably Wrong, Rationality, Your Intuitions Are Not Magic, Bias, Heuristic

Basics

“Cognitive biases” are those obstacles to truth which are produced, not by the cost of information, nor by limited computing power, but by the shape of our own mental machinery. For example, our mental processes might be evolutionarily adapted to specifically believe some things that arent true, so that we could win political arguments in a tribal context. Or the mental machinery might be adapted not to particularly care whether something is true, such as when we feel the urge to believe what others believe to get along socially. Or the bias may be a side-effect of a useful reasoning heuristic. The availability heuristic is not itself a bias, but it gives rise to them; the machinery uses an algorithm (give things more evidential weight if they come to mind more readily) that does some good cognitive work but also produces systematic errors.

Our brains are doing something wrong, and after a lot of experimentation and/​or heavy thinking, someone identifies the problem verbally and concretely; then we call it a “(cognitive) bias.” Not to be confused with the colloquial “that person is biased,” which just means “that person has a skewed or prejudiced attitude toward something.”

A bias is an obstacle to our goal of obtaining truth, and thus in our way.

We are here to pursue the great human quest for truth: for we have desperate need of the knowledge, and besides, we’re curious. To this end let us strive to overcome whatever obstacles lie in our way, whether we call them “biases” or not.

It’s also useful to know the kinds of faults human brains are prone to, in the same way it’s useful to know that your car’s brakes are a little gummy (so you don’t sail through a red light and into an 18-wheeler).

The Sequence, Predictably Wrong, offers an excellent introduction to the topic for those who are not familiar.

Wait a minute… fallacies, biases, heuristics… what’s the difference??

While a bias is always wrong, a heuristic is just a shortcut which may or may not give you an accurate answer. Just because you know complex mathematical methods for precisely calculating the flight of objects through space doesn’t mean you should be using them to play volleyball. Which is to say, heuristics are necessary for actually getting anything done. But because they are just approximations they frequently produce biases, which is where the problem lies. “Fallacy” is often used to mean a very similar thing as bias on LessWrong. [Needs better clarification]

A good example of a heuristic is the affect heuristic—people tend to guess unknown traits about people or things based on the perceived goodness of badness of known traits. In some circumstances this is a useful shortcut—you may like to assume, for instance, that people who are good singers are more likely to be good dancers, too. However, it also frequently produces (unconscious) biases—a bias towards believing that people who are tall and good looking have better moral character, for instance.

So if I learn all the biases, I can conquer the world with my superior intellect?

Well, no. If it were that easy we wouldn’t need a community initially dedicated to overcoming bias (the name of the blog which this website grew out of). Unfortunately, learning about a bias alone doesn’t seem to improve your ability to avoid it in real life. There’s also the (major) issue that knowing about biases can hurt people. Instead of being purely focused on removing negative habits, there is now a major focus at LessWrong to implementing positive habits. These are skills such as how to update (change your mind) the correct amount in response to evidence, how to resolve disagreements with others, how to introspect, and many more.

Bi­ases: An Introduction

Rob BensingerMar 11, 2015, 7:00 PM
297 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

What’s a Bias?

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 27, 2006, 1:50 AM
189 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

Hu­man val­ues & bi­ases are in­ac­cessible to the genome

TurnTroutJul 7, 2022, 5:29 PM
94 points
54 comments6 min readLW link1 review

Un­bounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 29, 2007, 7:45 AM
83 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

[Cross­post] On Hreha On Be­hav­ioral Economics

Scott AlexanderAug 31, 2021, 6:14 PM
106 points
6 comments22 min readLW link

The Death of Be­hav­ioral Economics

habrykaAug 22, 2021, 10:39 PM
155 points
24 comments1 min readLW link2 reviews
(www.thebehavioralscientist.com)

Availability

Eliezer YudkowskySep 6, 2007, 6:55 AM
185 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

What cog­ni­tive bi­ases feel like from the inside

chaosmageJan 3, 2020, 2:24 PM
256 points
32 comments4 min readLW link

Plan­ning Fallacy

Eliezer YudkowskySep 17, 2007, 7:06 AM
187 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

Cor­re­spon­dence Bias

Eliezer YudkowskyJun 25, 2007, 12:58 AM
102 points
49 comments3 min readLW link

Scope Insensitivity

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 14, 2007, 2:53 AM
344 points
70 comments2 min readLW link

The Halo Effect

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 30, 2007, 12:58 AM
77 points
57 comments3 min readLW link

The shard the­ory of hu­man values

Sep 4, 2022, 4:28 AM
255 points
67 comments24 min readLW link2 reviews

Con­junc­tion Fallacy

Eliezer YudkowskySep 19, 2007, 1:54 AM
55 points
46 comments3 min readLW link

Sleep­walk bias, self-defeat­ing pre­dic­tions and ex­is­ten­tial risk

Stefan_SchubertApr 22, 2016, 6:31 PM
56 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Bugs or Fea­tures?

qbolecSep 3, 2022, 7:04 AM
73 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Z_M_DavisApr 12, 2009, 5:30 PM
40 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

Bi­ases are en­g­ines of cognition

Nov 30, 2022, 4:47 PM
46 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Great minds might not think alike

Eric NeymanDec 26, 2020, 7:51 PM
305 points
45 comments11 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Si­mul­ta­neous Over­con­fi­dence and Underconfidence

abramdemskiJun 3, 2015, 9:04 PM
37 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

A List of Nuances

abramdemskiNov 10, 2014, 5:02 AM
67 points
24 comments10 min readLW link

An­chor­ing and Adjustment

Eliezer YudkowskySep 7, 2007, 9:33 PM
82 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

Your Evolved Intuitions

lukeprogMay 5, 2011, 4:21 PM
22 points
106 comments10 min readLW link

Bur­den­some Details

Eliezer YudkowskySep 20, 2007, 11:46 PM
247 points
45 comments4 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Fooled by Randomness

SherrinfordJul 13, 2020, 9:02 PM
34 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Notic­ing and Over­com­ing Bias

Neel NandaMar 6, 2021, 9:06 PM
14 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

Feel­ing Moral

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 11, 2015, 7:00 PM
47 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

The Wrath of Kahneman

steven0461Mar 9, 2009, 12:52 PM
30 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

Bayes’ Law is About Mul­ti­ple Hy­poth­e­sis Testing

abramdemskiMay 4, 2018, 5:31 AM
36 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

The Im­plicit As­so­ci­a­tion Test

Scott AlexanderMar 25, 2009, 12:11 AM
31 points
31 comments7 min readLW link

Bo­gus Pipeline, Bona Fide Pipeline

Scott AlexanderMar 24, 2009, 12:10 AM
30 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

Is the con­fir­ma­tion bias re­ally a bias?

LionelJun 14, 2023, 2:06 PM
−2 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(lionelpage.substack.com)

In praise of heuristics

BuckyOct 24, 2018, 3:44 PM
39 points
27 comments7 min readLW link

Happy paths and the plan­ning fallacy

Adam ZernerJul 18, 2021, 11:26 PM
38 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Rev­er­sal Tests in Ar­gu­ment and Debate

Davis_KingsleySep 13, 2019, 9:18 AM
32 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Blink: The Power of Think­ing Without Think­ing (book re­view)

Andrew VlahosOct 3, 2021, 11:21 PM
17 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

Beyond al­gorith­mic equiv­alence: self-modelling

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 28, 2018, 4:55 PM
10 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Is an­chor­ing a re­li­able cog­ni­tive bias?

justindomkeOct 14, 2021, 3:15 PM
22 points
4 comments8 min readLW link
(justindomke.wordpress.com)

Mo­ravec’s Para­dox Comes From The Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

james.lucassenOct 20, 2021, 6:23 AM
33 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(jlucassen.com)

Us­ing blin­ders to help you see things for what they are

Adam ZernerNov 11, 2021, 7:07 AM
13 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Lies, Damn Lies, and Fabri­cated Options

Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)Oct 17, 2021, 2:47 AM
299 points
132 comments14 min readLW link2 reviews

[Bias] Restrict­ing free­dom is more harm­ful than it seems

lsusrNov 22, 2023, 9:44 AM
17 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Paper is True

ZviFeb 14, 2022, 2:10 PM
35 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Beyond al­gorith­mic equiv­alence: al­gorith­mic noise

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 28, 2018, 4:55 PM
10 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Bias in ra­tio­nal­ity is much worse than noise

Stuart_ArmstrongOct 31, 2017, 11:57 AM
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Why is the sur­pris­ingly pop­u­lar an­swer cor­rect?

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 3, 2017, 4:24 PM
43 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Limer­ence Messes Up Your Ra­tion­al­ity Real Bad, Yo

RaemonJul 1, 2022, 4:53 PM
128 points
42 comments3 min readLW link2 reviews

[Question] Is there any writ­ing about prompt en­g­ineer­ing for hu­mans?

Alex HollowAug 1, 2022, 12:52 PM
18 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Which Bi­ases are most im­por­tant to Over­come?

abstractapplicDec 1, 2024, 3:40 PM
35 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

The Affect Heuristic

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 27, 2007, 7:58 AM
78 points
70 comments3 min readLW link

The silos of ex­per­tise: be­yond heuris­tics and biases

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 26, 2014, 1:13 PM
48 points
16 comments9 min readLW link

The Trou­ble With “Good”

Scott AlexanderApr 17, 2009, 2:07 AM
100 points
137 comments6 min readLW link

“Fol­low your dreams” as a case study in in­cor­rect thinking

cousin_itAug 20, 2014, 1:18 PM
44 points
53 comments2 min readLW link

Vac­ci­na­tion with the EMH

DirectedEvolutionDec 29, 2020, 3:05 AM
17 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

The As­sumed In­tent Bias

silentbobNov 5, 2023, 4:28 PM
51 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

AXRP Epi­sode 2 - Learn­ing Hu­man Bi­ases with Ro­hin Shah

DanielFilanDec 29, 2020, 8:43 PM
13 points
0 comments35 min readLW link

Archimedes’s Chronophone

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 23, 2007, 5:43 PM
58 points
94 comments4 min readLW link

Nor­malcy bias and Base rate ne­glect: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

RemmeltJan 4, 2023, 3:16 AM
−16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Your in­tu­itions are not magic

Kaj_SotalaJun 10, 2010, 12:11 AM
163 points
42 comments4 min readLW link

Pro­posed al­gorithm to fight an­chor­ing bias

John_MaxwellAug 3, 2019, 4:07 AM
10 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Rock is Strong

ZviFeb 14, 2022, 2:00 PM
59 points
13 comments26 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Linkpost: Choice Ex­plains Pos­i­tivity and Con­fir­ma­tion Bias

Gunnar_ZarnckeOct 1, 2020, 9:46 PM
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

I Was Not Al­most Wrong But I Was Al­most Right: Close-Call Coun­ter­fac­tu­als and Bias

Kaj_SotalaMar 8, 2012, 5:39 AM
86 points
40 comments9 min readLW link

The Sub­sti­tu­tion Principle

Kaj_SotalaJan 28, 2012, 4:20 AM
112 points
65 comments4 min readLW link

Asch’s Con­for­mity Experiment

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 26, 2007, 7:03 AM
68 points
67 comments4 min readLW link

No­tice When Peo­ple Are Direc­tion­ally Correct

Chris_LeongJan 14, 2024, 2:12 PM
134 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

De­bi­as­ing as Non-Self-Destruction

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 7, 2007, 8:20 PM
46 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

“In­duc­tive Bias”

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 8, 2007, 7:52 PM
39 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

Prim­ing and Contamination

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 10, 2007, 2:23 AM
66 points
27 comments3 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Heuris­tics and Bi­ases (MIRI course list)

So8resSep 2, 2013, 3:37 PM
49 points
22 comments20 min readLW link

Self-Anchoring

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 22, 2007, 6:11 AM
47 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Con­fir­ma­tion Bias As Mis­fire Of Nor­mal Bayesian Reasoning

Scott AlexanderFeb 13, 2020, 7:20 AM
43 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

But There’s Still A Chance, Right?

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 6, 2008, 1:56 AM
119 points
61 comments2 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Pre­dictably Ir­ra­tional by Dan Ariely

erratioMay 8, 2011, 8:13 AM
46 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

You can be wrong about what you like, and you of­ten are

Adam ZernerDec 17, 2018, 11:49 PM
30 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Are these cog­ni­tive bi­ases, bi­ases?

Kaj_SotalaDec 23, 2009, 5:27 PM
46 points
24 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] How much do per­sonal bi­ases in risk as­sess­ment af­fect as­sess­ment of AI risks?

Gordon Seidoh WorleyMay 3, 2023, 6:12 AM
10 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Do We Believe Every­thing We’re Told?

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 10, 2007, 11:52 PM
105 points
41 comments2 min readLW link

How You Make Judg­ments: The Elephant and its Rider

lukeprogApr 15, 2011, 1:02 AM
62 points
19 comments13 min readLW link

So You Think You’re a Bayesian? The Nat­u­ral Mode of Prob­a­bil­is­tic Reasoning

Matt_SimpsonJul 14, 2010, 4:51 PM
66 points
80 comments10 min readLW link

A sim­pler way to think about pos­i­tive test bias

cousin_itJan 22, 2018, 9:38 AM
16 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Why is the Fu­ture So Ab­surd?

Eliezer YudkowskySep 7, 2007, 8:42 AM
52 points
17 comments3 min readLW link

Why You’re Stuck in a Narrative

[deleted]Aug 4, 2009, 12:31 AM
46 points
32 comments5 min readLW link

Why Don’t Peo­ple Help Others More?

Peter WildefordAug 13, 2012, 11:34 PM
54 points
85 comments10 min readLW link

How Much Thought

jimrandomhApr 12, 2009, 4:56 AM
49 points
26 comments4 min readLW link

The Red Bias

JackApr 20, 2010, 11:42 AM
40 points
62 comments4 min readLW link

The File Drawer Effect and Con­for­mity Bias (Elec­tion Edi­tion)

SalemicusMay 8, 2015, 4:51 PM
48 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

If we can’t lie to oth­ers, we will lie to ourselves

paulfchristianoNov 26, 2016, 10:29 PM
45 points
24 comments1 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

By­s­tan­der Apathy

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 13, 2009, 1:26 AM
49 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

The Anti-Placebo Effect

ShannonFriedmanSep 28, 2013, 5:44 AM
65 points
39 comments3 min readLW link

Zut Allais!

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 20, 2008, 3:18 AM
59 points
51 comments6 min readLW link

Pos­i­tive Bias Test (C++ pro­gram)

MBlumeMay 19, 2009, 9:32 PM
30 points
79 comments4 min readLW link

Ex­pert trap: What is it? (Part 1 of 3) – how hind­sight, hi­er­ar­chy, and con­fir­ma­tion bi­ases break con­duc­tivity and ac­cu­racy of knowledge

Paweł SysiakJun 9, 2023, 11:00 PM
6 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Fight Bi­ases, or Route Around Them?

Scott AlexanderMar 25, 2009, 10:23 PM
29 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

Ex­pert trap: Why is it hap­pen­ing? (Part 2 of 3) – how hind­sight, hi­er­ar­chy, and con­fir­ma­tion bi­ases break con­duc­tivity and ac­cu­racy of knowledge

Paweł SysiakJun 9, 2023, 11:00 PM
3 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Not an­other bias!

LionelJun 5, 2023, 5:50 PM
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(lionelpage.substack.com)

Judg­ment Un­der Uncer­tainty sum­maries, Part 1: Representativeness

TesseractAug 15, 2011, 12:05 AM
42 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

In­spec­tion Para­dox as a Driver of Group Separation

ShmiAug 17, 2019, 9:47 PM
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­ploit­ing the Typ­i­cal Mind Fal­lacy for more ac­cu­rate ques­tion­ing?

XachariahJul 17, 2012, 12:46 AM
47 points
73 comments1 min readLW link

“Nat­u­ral is bet­ter” is a valuable heuristic

Neil Jun 20, 2023, 10:25 PM
35 points
16 comments4 min readLW link

Re­view of Kah­ne­man, ‘Think­ing, Fast and Slow’ (2011)

lukeprogOct 28, 2011, 1:59 AM
42 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Ide­olog­i­cal Bayesians

Kevin DorstFeb 25, 2024, 2:17 PM
96 points
4 comments10 min readLW link
(kevindorst.substack.com)

We ran a read­ing group on The Scout Mindset

Jun 24, 2023, 10:10 AM
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Prac­ti­cal debiasing

crazy88Nov 20, 2011, 9:45 AM
40 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

Fight Zero-Sum Bias

multifoliateroseJul 18, 2010, 5:57 AM
28 points
164 comments2 min readLW link

Am­bi­guity in cog­ni­tive bias names; a refresher

nerfhammerFeb 21, 2012, 4:37 AM
39 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Bi­ases of In­tu­itive and Log­i­cal Thinkers

pwnoAug 13, 2013, 3:50 AM
34 points
84 comments7 min readLW link

In­stru­men­tal Ra­tion­al­ity 2: Plan­ning 101

lifelonglearnerOct 6, 2017, 2:23 PM
17 points
4 comments14 min readLW link

[Link] How to Dispel Your Illu­sions

[deleted]Dec 6, 2011, 2:46 PM
37 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Do we au­to­mat­i­cally ac­cept propo­si­tions?

Aaron GraifmanJul 11, 2023, 5:45 PM
10 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Choice begets regret

bryjnarJan 4, 2018, 8:28 PM
12 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

Scope Insen­si­tivity Judo

Gordon Seidoh WorleyJul 19, 2019, 5:33 PM
22 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

What is a cog­ni­tive bias?

LionelJul 15, 2023, 1:01 PM
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link
(lionelpage.substack.com)

Ex­pert trap – Ways out (Part 3 of 3)

Paweł SysiakJul 22, 2023, 1:06 PM
4 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

“Not Ne­c­es­sar­ily”

Benjamin HendricksJul 31, 2023, 3:19 PM
24 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is Stu­pidity Ex­pand­ing? Some Hy­pothe­ses.

David GrossOct 15, 2020, 3:28 AM
71 points
42 comments5 min readLW link

Evolved Bayesi­ans will be biased

tawAug 20, 2009, 2:54 PM
28 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

ChatGPT challenges the case for hu­man irrationality

Kevin DorstAug 22, 2023, 12:46 PM
3 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(kevindorst.substack.com)

Allais Malaise

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 21, 2008, 12:40 AM
41 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

It’s the Same Five Dol­lars!

Z_M_DavisMar 8, 2009, 7:23 AM
27 points
32 comments1 min readLW link

Zwicky’s Trifecta of Illusions

thomblakeJul 17, 2009, 4:59 PM
23 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

The Ra­tion­al­ity Wars

Stefan_SchubertFeb 27, 2014, 5:08 PM
30 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

Proverbs and Cached Judg­ments: the Rol­ling Stone

AnnoyanceApr 1, 2009, 3:40 PM
18 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

Should we be bi­ased?

James_MillerApr 27, 2009, 3:42 PM
−12 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Heuris­tic is not a bad word

HughRistikApr 6, 2009, 6:55 AM
12 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Only hu­mans can have hu­man values

PhilGoetzApr 26, 2010, 6:57 PM
48 points
161 comments17 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ity: An Introduction

Rob BensingerMar 11, 2015, 7:00 PM
48 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ist Judo, or Us­ing the Availa­bil­ity Heuris­tic to Win

jschulterJul 15, 2011, 8:39 AM
33 points
27 comments3 min readLW link

Con­tra­dic­tion Ap­peal Bias

onurSep 24, 2023, 5:03 PM
3 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Con­sider Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Data Sets

Vladimir_NesovMay 6, 2009, 1:49 AM
12 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

Ter­mi­nal Bias

[deleted]Jan 30, 2012, 9:03 PM
24 points
125 comments6 min readLW link

Readi­ness Heuristics

jimrandomhJun 15, 2009, 1:53 AM
22 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Don’t Count Your Chick­ens...

thomblakeJun 17, 2009, 3:21 PM
4 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Straight-edge Warn­ing Against Phys­i­cal Intimacy

RaphaëllNov 23, 2020, 9:35 PM
17 points
42 comments5 min readLW link

“I know I’m bi­ased, but...”

[deleted]May 10, 2011, 8:03 PM
32 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

The Fixed Sum Fallacy

cousin_itJul 3, 2009, 1:01 PM
5 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

The In­com­pre­hen­si­bil­ity Bluff

SocratesDissatisfiedDec 6, 2020, 6:26 PM
44 points
22 comments6 min readLW link

The bias shield

PhilGoetzDec 31, 2011, 5:44 PM
29 points
65 comments6 min readLW link

Met­ric se­lec­tion bias: why Moore’s law is less im­por­tant than you think

Aaron BergmanFeb 8, 2021, 12:21 AM
18 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(aaronbergman.substack.com)

Write a busi­ness plan already

bfinnMar 25, 2021, 12:13 AM
17 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Peo­ple are gath­er­ing 2 mil­lion USD to save a kid with a rare dis­ease. I feel weird about it. Why?

hookdumpApr 2, 2021, 11:00 PM
9 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

An ex­plo­ra­tion of ex­ploita­tion bias

Eric NeymanApr 3, 2021, 11:03 PM
14 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

How & when to write a busi­ness plan

bfinnApr 15, 2021, 3:45 PM
13 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Mind­ful­ness as debugging

pchvykovApr 30, 2021, 4:59 PM
21 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Our com­pressed perception

pchvykovApr 6, 2021, 11:01 AM
12 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Ra­tional Home Buying

Scott AlexanderAug 27, 2011, 12:15 AM
167 points
138 comments7 min readLW link

Some peo­ple just won’t get it

Amir BolousJun 12, 2021, 3:10 PM
3 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is it true that most stud­ies in Kah­ne­man’s ‘Think­ing fast and slow’ are not repli­ca­ble and the book is largely not sup­ported by ev­i­dence?

Davy JonesJun 30, 2021, 7:14 AM
17 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Im­por­tance of Ideas and Peo­ple We Disagree With

OlitnessJul 29, 2021, 11:50 AM
−1 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(olitness.wordpress.com)

Book Re­view: All I Want To Know Is Where I’m Go­ing To Die So I’ll Never Go There

AnmoljainOct 13, 2021, 3:46 AM
3 points
2 comments46 min readLW link

Con­vinc­ing Your Brain That Hu­man­ity is Evil is Easy

Johannes C. MayerApr 7, 2022, 9:39 PM
14 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

140 Cog­ni­tive Bi­ases You Should Know

André FerrettiApr 9, 2022, 5:15 PM
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Cat­a­logu­ing Pri­ors in The­ory and Practice

Paul BricmanOct 13, 2022, 12:36 PM
13 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

Be more effec­tive by learn­ing im­por­tant prac­ti­cal knowl­edge us­ing flashcards

StenemoOct 12, 2022, 6:05 PM
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Mo­ral con­ta­gion heuristic

MvolzNov 14, 2022, 9:17 PM
14 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What kind of bias is this?

Daniel SamuelNov 17, 2022, 6:44 PM
3 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

When AI solves a game, fo­cus on the game’s me­chan­ics, not its theme.

Cleo NardoNov 23, 2022, 7:16 PM
89 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Against a Gen­eral Fac­tor of Doom

Jeffrey HeningerNov 23, 2022, 4:50 PM
61 points
19 comments4 min readLW link1 review
(aiimpacts.org)

In­tro­duc­tion: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

Dec 27, 2022, 10:27 AM
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Mere ex­po­sure effect: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

Dec 27, 2022, 2:05 PM
0 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Band­wagon effect: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

Dec 28, 2022, 7:54 AM
−1 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Re­ac­tive de­val­u­a­tion: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

Dec 30, 2022, 9:02 AM
−15 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Curse of knowl­edge and Naive re­al­ism: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

Dec 31, 2022, 1:33 PM
−7 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Belief Bias: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

Jan 2, 2023, 8:59 AM
−10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Sta­tus quo bias; Sys­tem jus­tifi­ca­tion: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

Jan 3, 2023, 2:50 AM
−11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Illu­sion of truth effect and Am­bi­guity effect: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

RemmeltJan 5, 2023, 4:05 AM
−13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

An­chor­ing fo­cal­ism and the Iden­ti­fi­able vic­tim effect: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

RemmeltJan 7, 2023, 9:59 AM
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

De-Cen­ter­ing Bias

Chris_LeongOct 18, 2017, 11:24 PM
14 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

How I in­ter­nal­ized my achieve­ments to bet­ter deal with nega­tive feelings

Raymond KoopmanschapFeb 27, 2024, 3:10 PM
42 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Heuris­tics for pre­vent­ing ma­jor life mistakes

SK2Dec 20, 2023, 8:01 AM
28 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Be­ware the sci­ence fic­tion bias in pre­dic­tions of the future

Nikita SokolskyAug 19, 2024, 5:32 AM
25 points
20 comments4 min readLW link
(nsokolsky.substack.com)

Prefer­ence for un­cer­tainty and im­pact over­es­ti­ma­tion bias in al­tru­is­tic sys­tems.

LuckFeb 15, 2025, 12:27 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

In Defense of Epistemic Em­pa­thy

Kevin DorstDec 27, 2023, 4:27 PM
60 points
19 comments6 min readLW link
(kevindorst.substack.com)

Com­pen­sat­ing for Life Biases

Jonathan MoregårdJan 9, 2024, 2:39 PM
24 points
6 comments3 min readLW link
(honestliving.substack.com)

In­ves­ti­gat­ing Bias Rep­re­sen­ta­tions in LLMs via Ac­ti­va­tion Steering

DawnLuJan 15, 2024, 7:39 PM
29 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Strong-Misal­ign­ment: Does Yud­kowsky (or Chris­ti­ano, or TurnTrout, or Wolfram, or…etc.) Have an Ele­va­tor Speech I’m Miss­ing?

Benjamin BourlierMar 15, 2024, 11:17 PM
−4 points
3 comments16 min readLW link

[Question] How do you iden­tify and coun­ter­act your bi­ases in de­ci­sion-mak­ing?

warrenjordanMar 12, 2024, 5:01 AM
2 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

How to co­or­di­nate de­spite our bi­ases? - tldr

Ryo Apr 18, 2024, 3:03 PM
3 points
2 comments3 min readLW link
(medium.com)

[Question] Cal­ibra­tion train­ing for ‘per­centile rank­ings’?

david reinsteinSep 14, 2024, 9:51 PM
3 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Con­fus­ing the met­ric for the mean­ing: Per­haps cor­re­lated at­tributes are “nat­u­ral”

NickyPJul 23, 2024, 12:43 PM
33 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

In­quisi­tive vs. ad­ver­sar­ial rationality

gbSep 18, 2024, 1:50 PM
6 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

An Un­mea­sured Song of Measurement

jan SijanSep 21, 2024, 3:08 PM
−3 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] how to truly feel my be­liefs?

KvmanThinkingNov 11, 2024, 12:04 AM
6 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A cri­tique of Soares “4 back­ground claims”

YanLyutnevJan 27, 2025, 8:27 PM
−7 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

elimi­nat­ing bias through lan­guage?

KvmanThinkingFeb 4, 2025, 1:52 AM
1 point
12 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] hyp­no­sis question

KvmanThinkingFeb 6, 2025, 2:41 AM
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Some po­ten­tial dan­gers of ra­tio­nal­ity training

lukeprogJan 21, 2012, 4:50 AM
28 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

Skep­ti­cism to­wards claims about the views of pow­er­ful institutions

tlevinFeb 13, 2025, 7:40 AM
46 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Old-world Poli­tics Fallacy

Rudi CJun 23, 2020, 12:32 PM
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

The im­pos­si­bil­ity of ra­tio­nally an­a­lyz­ing par­ti­san news

RationalDinoNov 16, 2023, 4:19 PM
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Heuris­tics and Bi­ases in Charity

Kaj_SotalaMar 2, 2012, 3:20 PM
30 points
57 comments7 min readLW link

Trust your in­tu­ition—Kah­ne­man’s book misses the for­est for the trees

mnvrNov 29, 2023, 4:37 AM
−2 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Ac­cu­racy of ar­gu­ments that are seen as ridicu­lous and in­tu­itively false but don’t have good counter-arguments

Christopher KingApr 29, 2023, 11:58 PM
30 points
39 comments1 min readLW link

A New Way to Vi­su­al­ize Biases

dtmJul 22, 2020, 5:57 PM
6 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

Why You Might Want a New Way to Vi­su­al­ize Biases

dtmJul 27, 2020, 5:30 PM
18 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Do­ing your good deed for the day

Scott AlexanderOct 27, 2009, 12:45 AM
152 points
57 comments3 min readLW link

Hind­sight De­val­ues Science

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 17, 2007, 7:39 PM
248 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

Shut Up And Guess

Scott AlexanderJul 21, 2009, 4:04 AM
125 points
110 comments5 min readLW link

The Bias You Didn’t Expect

PsychohistorianApr 14, 2011, 4:20 PM
132 points
91 comments2 min readLW link

Priv­ileg­ing the Question

Qiaochu_YuanApr 29, 2013, 6:30 PM
227 points
312 comments2 min readLW link

You Are A Brain

LironMay 9, 2009, 9:53 PM
131 points
64 comments1 min readLW link

New cog­ni­tive bias ar­ti­cles on wikipe­dia (up­date)

nerfhammerMar 9, 2012, 8:13 PM
108 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Dou­ble-Dip­ping in Dun­ning—Kruger

isovectorNov 28, 2018, 3:40 AM
88 points
32 comments3 min readLW link

Punc­tu­al­ity—Ar­riv­ing on Time and Math

XachariahMay 3, 2012, 1:35 AM
136 points
40 comments5 min readLW link

Stranger Than History

Eliezer YudkowskySep 1, 2007, 6:57 PM
137 points
335 comments1 min readLW link

Some Heuris­tics for Eval­u­at­ing the Sound­ness of the Aca­demic Main­stream in Un­fa­mil­iar Fields

Vladimir_MFeb 15, 2011, 9:17 AM
100 points
274 comments9 min readLW link

Try­ing to Try

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 1, 2008, 8:58 AM
219 points
58 comments3 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity space has 2 metrics

Donald HobsonFeb 10, 2019, 12:28 AM
89 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Never Leave Your Room

Scott AlexanderMar 18, 2009, 12:30 AM
83 points
65 comments3 min readLW link

What are the op­ti­mal bi­ases to over­come?

aaronswAug 4, 2012, 3:04 PM
103 points
70 comments2 min readLW link

Bi­ased Pandemic

freyleyMar 13, 2012, 11:32 PM
82 points
36 comments4 min readLW link

Prospect The­ory: A Frame­work for Un­der­stand­ing Cog­ni­tive Biases

Scott AlexanderJul 10, 2011, 5:20 AM
98 points
50 comments4 min readLW link

The Good News of Si­tu­a­tion­ist Psychology

lukeprogApr 1, 2011, 7:28 PM
81 points
48 comments3 min readLW link

Hind­sight bias

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 16, 2007, 9:58 PM
73 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

A Tax­on­omy of Bias: The Cog­ni­tive Miser

Kaj_SotalaJul 2, 2010, 6:38 PM
67 points
38 comments5 min readLW link

Su­per­hero Bias

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 1, 2007, 3:14 AM
122 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

I’m Not Say­ing Peo­ple Are Stupid

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 9, 2009, 4:23 PM
61 points
101 comments1 min readLW link

For­mal­iz­ing the “AI x-risk is un­likely be­cause it is ridicu­lous” argument

Christopher KingMay 3, 2023, 6:56 PM
48 points
17 comments3 min readLW link

We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 3, 2007, 6:14 PM
111 points
120 comments1 min readLW link

Blue- and Yel­low-Tinted Choices

Scott AlexanderMay 13, 2010, 10:35 PM
75 points
57 comments4 min readLW link

Fun­da­men­tally Flawed, or Fast and Fru­gal?

Kaj_SotalaDec 20, 2009, 3:10 PM
49 points
86 comments6 min readLW link

The Allais Paradox

Eliezer YudkowskyJan 19, 2008, 3:05 AM
65 points
145 comments3 min readLW link

Self-Ad­ministered Gell-Mann Amnesia

krsMay 7, 2023, 5:44 PM
1 point
1 comment1 min readLW link

Chart­ing Deaths: Real­ity vs Reported

lifelonglearnerMar 30, 2018, 12:50 AM
13 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(owenshen24.github.io)

Evalua­bil­ity (And Cheap Holi­day Shop­ping)

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 28, 2007, 12:37 AM
87 points
63 comments4 min readLW link

Why ar­tifi­cial op­ti­mism?

jessicataJul 15, 2019, 9:41 PM
67 points
29 comments4 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Ver­bal Over­shad­ow­ing and The Art of Rationality

panglossApr 27, 2009, 11:39 PM
68 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

On En­joy­ing Disagree­able Company

AlicornMay 26, 2010, 1:47 AM
68 points
254 comments7 min readLW link

What’s In A Name?

Scott AlexanderJun 29, 2009, 12:54 PM
53 points
138 comments3 min readLW link

In­stinc­tive Fre­quen­tists, the Out­side View, and de-Biasing

Stuart_ArmstrongSep 20, 2013, 8:19 PM
63 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

[LINK] Cog­ni­tive Bi­ases in Sports: The Ir­ra­tional­ity of Coaches, Com­men­ta­tors and Fans

[deleted]Sep 23, 2011, 12:14 AM
5 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Scarcity

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 27, 2008, 8:07 AM
87 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

Ab­sur­dity Heuris­tic, Ab­sur­dity Bias

Eliezer YudkowskySep 5, 2007, 3:20 AM
58 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Know­ing About Bi­ases Can Hurt People

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 4, 2007, 6:01 PM
224 points
82 comments2 min readLW link

Lawful Uncertainty

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 10, 2008, 9:06 PM
134 points
57 comments4 min readLW link

Con­junc­tion Con­tro­versy (Or, How They Nail It Down)

Eliezer YudkowskySep 20, 2007, 2:41 AM
60 points
25 comments8 min readLW link

Why Sup­port the Un­der­dog?

Scott AlexanderApr 5, 2009, 12:01 AM
43 points
102 comments3 min readLW link

Ten­den­cies in re­flec­tive equilibrium

Scott AlexanderJul 20, 2011, 10:38 AM
51 points
71 comments4 min readLW link

Know­ing I’m Be­ing Tricked is Barely Enough

ElizabethFeb 26, 2019, 5:50 PM
37 points
10 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)
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