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Con­fir­ma­tion Bias

TagLast edit: Feb 8, 2025, 12:32 AM by lesswrong-internal

Confirmation bias (also known as positive bias) is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or strengthens one’s prior personal beliefs or hypotheses [1]. For example, one might test hypotheses with positive rather than negative examples, thus missing obvious disconfirming tests.

“I had, also, during many years followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from the memory than favourable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.”—Charles Darwin (autobiography)

See also: Motivated skepticism, Privileging the hypothesis, Falsifiability, Heuristics and Biases, Availability heuristic, Surprise, Narrative fallacy

External Links

Trapped Pri­ors As A Ba­sic Prob­lem Of Rationality

Scott AlexanderMar 12, 2021, 8:02 PM
150 points
33 comments14 min readLW link3 reviews

Pos­i­tive Bias: Look Into the Dark

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 28, 2007, 3:55 AM
161 points
59 comments3 min readLW link

Con­fir­ma­tion Bias As Mis­fire Of Nor­mal Bayesian Reasoning

Scott AlexanderFeb 13, 2020, 7:20 AM
43 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Ide­olog­i­cal Bayesians

Kevin DorstFeb 25, 2024, 2:17 PM
96 points
4 comments10 min readLW link
(kevindorst.substack.com)

Case Study: Test­ing Con­fir­ma­tion Bias

gwernMay 2, 2012, 2:03 PM
51 points
63 comments1 min readLW link

Sub­tle Forms of Con­fir­ma­tion Bias

abramdemskiJul 3, 2017, 11:00 PM
20 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Suffi­ciently sincere con­fir­ma­tion bias is in­dis­t­in­guish­able from science

BenquoMar 15, 2017, 1:19 PM
37 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

[Valence se­ries] 3. Valence & Beliefs

Steven ByrnesDec 11, 2023, 8:21 PM
77 points
12 comments21 min readLW link1 review

“Nahh, that wouldn’t work”

lionhearted (Sebastian Marshall)Nov 28, 2010, 9:32 PM
97 points
50 comments2 min readLW link

Priv­ileg­ing the Hypothesis

Eliezer YudkowskySep 29, 2009, 12:40 AM
127 points
130 comments5 min readLW link

Linkpost: Choice Ex­plains Pos­i­tivity and Con­fir­ma­tion Bias

Gunnar_ZarnckeOct 1, 2020, 9:46 PM
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Nav­i­gat­ing LLM em­bed­ding spaces us­ing archetype-based directions

mwatkinsMay 8, 2024, 5:54 AM
15 points
4 comments28 min readLW link

Con­fir­ma­tion Bias in Action

Jacob FalkovichJan 24, 2021, 5:38 PM
37 points
1 comment13 min readLW link

Fre­quently Asked Ques­tions for Cen­tral Banks Un­der­shoot­ing Their In­fla­tion Target

Eliezer YudkowskyOct 29, 2017, 11:36 PM
61 points
30 comments35 min readLW link

The Statis­ti­cian’s Fallacy

ChrisHallquistDec 9, 2013, 4:48 AM
63 points
69 comments3 min readLW link

Ex­pert trap: What is it? (Part 1 of 3) – how hind­sight, hi­er­ar­chy, and con­fir­ma­tion bi­ases break con­duc­tivity and ac­cu­racy of knowledge

Paweł SysiakJun 9, 2023, 11:00 PM
6 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

The Temp­ta­tion to Bubble

gressettdSep 23, 2015, 11:34 PM
34 points
28 comments5 min readLW link

Ex­pert trap: Why is it hap­pen­ing? (Part 2 of 3) – how hind­sight, hi­er­ar­chy, and con­fir­ma­tion bi­ases break con­duc­tivity and ac­cu­racy of knowledge

Paweł SysiakJun 9, 2023, 11:00 PM
3 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Pos­i­tive Bias Test (C++ pro­gram)

MBlumeMay 19, 2009, 9:32 PM
30 points
79 comments4 min readLW link

ChatGPT challenges the case for hu­man irrationality

Kevin DorstAug 22, 2023, 12:46 PM
3 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(kevindorst.substack.com)

The Think­ing Lad­der—Wait But Why

LironSep 29, 2019, 6:51 PM
20 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(waitbutwhy.com)

The Plan − 2022 Update

johnswentworthDec 1, 2022, 8:43 PM
239 points
37 comments8 min readLW link1 review

ChatGPT vs the 2-4-6 Task

cwilluJan 25, 2023, 6:59 AM
20 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

The Modern Prob­lems with Conformity

Zero ContradictionsJul 13, 2024, 8:20 AM
0 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(expandingrationality.substack.com)

You Can­not Stop IT

No_Taro4331Jul 30, 2024, 3:00 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Lost in Fic­tion: The De­clin­ing Ap­peal of Real Life

Seikro HajimeDec 1, 2024, 8:51 AM
0 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Se­man­tic Stopsigns

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 24, 2007, 7:29 PM
159 points
110 comments3 min readLW link

Seek Fair Ex­pec­ta­tions of Others’ Models

ZviOct 17, 2017, 2:30 PM
60 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Rea­son­able Explanations

AlicornJun 16, 2019, 5:29 AM
78 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Epistemic Luck

AlicornFeb 8, 2010, 12:02 AM
108 points
133 comments3 min readLW link

The Crack­pot Offer

Eliezer YudkowskySep 8, 2007, 2:32 PM
118 points
73 comments3 min readLW link

Rea­son­ing isn’t about logic (it’s about ar­gu­ing)

MorendilMar 14, 2010, 4:42 AM
66 points
31 comments3 min readLW link

Scien­tific mis­con­duct mis­di­ag­nosed be­cause of sci­en­tific misconduct

GLaDOSJun 10, 2011, 2:49 PM
64 points
55 comments2 min readLW link

An­thro­po­mor­phic Optimism

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 4, 2008, 8:17 PM
82 points
60 comments5 min readLW link
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