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Forecasts (Specific Predictions) Tag Last edit: Aug 26, 2020, 8:12 PM by Raemon Forecasts (Specific Predictions) . This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in Forecasting and Prediction . Related: Betting .
Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry. – Making Beliefs Pay Rent
Relevant New Old Aug 22, 2020, 2:33 AM 135 points
2 min read LW link Zvi Jan 25, 2022, 6:30 PM 34 points
22 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi Feb 1, 2022, 8:30 PM 30 points
18 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi Feb 28, 2022, 7:20 PM 67 points
16 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
bmg Jun 19, 2022, 5:25 PM 29 points
1 min read LW link Yitz Jun 30, 2022, 6:58 PM 76 points
2 min read LW link (storage.googleapis.com)
elifland Jul 21, 2022, 12:07 AM 35 points
8 min read LW link (www.foxy-scout.com)
Yitz Sep 1, 2022, 9:15 PM 30 points
3 min read LW link (archiveofourown.org)
fumin Oct 1, 2022, 7:45 PM −10 points
9 min read LW link (docs.google.com)
jefftk Jan 17, 2023, 6:10 PM 17 points
2 min read LW link (www.jefftk.com)
Zvi Feb 14, 2023, 12:20 PM 20 points
23 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi Feb 17, 2023, 1:10 PM 25 points
20 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
JakubK Mar 17, 2023, 6:40 AM 56 points
2 min read LW link (docs.google.com)
Mar 17, 2025, 2:47 PM 32 points
3 min read LW link (www.forethought.org)
Zvi Jul 11, 2024, 3:00 PM 45 points
41 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Jan 8, 2024, 5:31 PM 23 points
30 min read LW link Zvi Jan 9, 2024, 7:30 PM 33 points
31 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi Feb 23, 2021, 5:20 PM 53 points
10 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Oct 28, 2021, 8:40 PM 62 points
12 min read LW link (www.metaculus.com)
Zvi Dec 2, 2021, 12:50 PM 39 points
7 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
ike Jan 2, 2022, 6:34 AM 13 points
1 min read LW link (misinfounderload.substack.com)
Zvi Jan 10, 2022, 3:50 PM 44 points
7 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi Jan 17, 2022, 4:10 PM 38 points
9 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Feb 16, 2025, 9:02 PM −3 points
23 min read LW link Feb 25, 2025, 9:50 PM 5 points
17 min read LW link (forum.effectivealtruism.org)
Annapurna Dec 29, 2024, 2:53 PM 10 points
6 min read LW link (jorgevelez.substack.com)
Dec 30, 2024, 6:20 AM 10 points
2 min read LW link (aisafety.info)
swante Nov 27, 2024, 9:31 PM 69 points
2 min read LW link (swantescholz.github.io)
Jan 15, 2025, 12:16 AM 54 points
1 min read LW link LDJ Mar 19, 2025, 11:36 PM 20 points
2 min read LW link Amandango Jul 28, 2020, 5:43 PM 44 points
2 min read LW link (forum.effectivealtruism.org)
Yoyo Y May 7, 2023, 4:54 PM 1 point
1 min read LW link (www.reciprocity.io)
Jun 12, 2023, 12:01 PM 2 points
24 min read LW link Zvi Oct 18, 2020, 10:40 PM 37 points
4 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
philh Mar 19, 2020, 9:10 PM 16 points
2 min read LW link (reasonableapproximation.net)
Zvi Apr 27, 2021, 12:40 AM 42 points
12 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Zvi Mar 14, 2022, 3:50 PM 58 points
4 min read LW link (thezvi.wordpress.com)
Sep 20, 2022, 10:25 PM 28 points
2 min read LW link habryka Sep 12, 2020, 6:38 AM 44 points
1 min read LW link (www.openphilanthropy.org)
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