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Fore­casts (Spe­cific Pre­dic­tions)

TagLast edit: Aug 26, 2020, 8:12 PM by Raemon

Forecasts (Specific Predictions). This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in Forecasting and Prediction. Related: Betting.

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry. – Making Beliefs Pay Rent

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

AmandangoSep 22, 2020, 3:44 AM
43 points
39 comments2 min readLW link

What 2026 looks like

Daniel KokotajloAug 6, 2021, 4:14 PM
533 points
160 comments16 min readLW link1 review

[Pre­dic­tion] We are in an Al­gorith­mic Overhang

lsusrSep 29, 2021, 11:40 PM
31 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Clar­ify­ing and pre­dict­ing AGI

Richard_NgoMay 4, 2023, 3:55 PM
142 points
44 comments4 min readLW link

What will GPT-2030 look like?

jsteinhardtJun 7, 2023, 11:40 PM
185 points
43 comments23 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Cal­ibra­tion of a thou­sand predictions

KatjaGraceOct 12, 2022, 8:50 AM
57 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_ArmstrongMay 6, 2020, 1:36 PM
146 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

My AI Pre­dic­tions 2023 − 2026

HunterJayOct 16, 2023, 12:50 AM
60 points
33 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

eliflandSep 14, 2022, 11:56 PM
34 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Be­fore smart AI, there will be many mediocre or spe­cial­ized AIs

Lukas FinnvedenMay 26, 2023, 1:38 AM
58 points
14 comments9 min readLW link1 review

2010s Pre­dic­tions Review

ToflyDec 30, 2019, 9:47 PM
47 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing: One Year In

jsteinhardtJul 4, 2022, 5:10 AM
132 points
12 comments6 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an im­mi­nent global nu­clear war

Max TegmarkOct 8, 2022, 6:26 AM
164 points
169 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

Aug 22, 2020, 2:33 AM
135 points
98 comments2 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing 2021 ACX Predictions

ZviJan 25, 2022, 6:30 PM
34 points
11 comments22 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2022 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

ZviFeb 1, 2022, 8:30 PM
30 points
2 comments18 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ukraine Post #1: Pre­dic­tion Markets

ZviFeb 28, 2022, 7:20 PM
67 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2022 ACX pre­dic­tions: mar­ket prices

Sam MarksMar 6, 2022, 6:24 AM
21 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

What’s the chance a smart Lon­don res­i­dent dies of a Rus­sian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilanMar 10, 2022, 7:20 PM
40 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Assess­ing Kurzweil: the results

Stuart_ArmstrongJan 16, 2013, 4:51 PM
96 points
64 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing the Elec­tions with Deep Learn­ing—Part 1 - Results

Quentin ChenevierMay 14, 2022, 12:54 PM
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Is AI Progress Im­pos­si­ble To Pre­dict?

alyssavanceMay 15, 2022, 6:30 PM
277 points
39 comments2 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing two tasks in Gary Mar­cus’s AGI challenge

Bill BenzonJun 9, 2022, 6:31 PM
12 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Kol­mogorov’s AI Forecast

intersticeJun 10, 2022, 2:36 AM
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Fu­sion Power

Daniel KokotajloJun 18, 2022, 12:04 AM
29 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

[Link-post] On Defer­ence and Yud­kowsky’s AI Risk Estimates

bmgJun 19, 2022, 5:25 PM
29 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Solv­ing Quan­ti­ta­tive Rea­son­ing Prob­lems with Lan­guage Models

YitzJun 30, 2022, 6:58 PM
76 points
15 comments2 min readLW link
(storage.googleapis.com)

Fore­cast­ing ML Bench­marks in 2023

jsteinhardtJul 18, 2022, 2:50 AM
36 points
20 comments12 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Per­sonal fore­cast­ing ret­ro­spec­tive: 2020-2022

eliflandJul 21, 2022, 12:07 AM
35 points
3 comments8 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Man­i­fold x CSPI $25k Fore­cast­ing Tournament

David CheeAug 9, 2022, 9:13 PM
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.cspicenter.com)

Short story spec­u­lat­ing on pos­si­ble ram­ifi­ca­tions of AI on the art world

YitzSep 1, 2022, 9:15 PM
30 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(archiveofourown.org)

Alex Lawsen On Fore­cast­ing AI Progress

Michaël TrazziSep 6, 2022, 9:32 AM
18 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(theinsideview.ai)

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

eliflandSep 9, 2022, 4:01 AM
44 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

I bet $500 on AI win­ning the IMO gold medal by 2026

azsantoskMay 11, 2023, 2:46 PM
37 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tions Thread

MichaelVassarDec 30, 2009, 9:39 PM
32 points
446 comments1 min readLW link

AGI by 2050 prob­a­bil­ity less than 1%

fuminOct 1, 2022, 7:45 PM
−10 points
4 comments9 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Sen­tinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/​2025. Trump in­vokes Alien Ene­mies Act, Chi­nese in­va­sion barges de­ployed in ex­er­cise.

NunoSempereMar 17, 2025, 7:34 PM
59 points
3 comments6 min readLW link
(blog.sentinel-team.org)

AI Re­search Pro­gram Pre­dic­tion Markets

tailcalledOct 20, 2022, 1:42 PM
38 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Sig­nals of war in Au­gust 2021

yieldthoughtOct 26, 2022, 8:11 AM
70 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Es­ti­mat­ing the prob­a­bil­ity that FTX Fu­ture Fund grant money gets clawed back

spencergNov 14, 2022, 3:33 AM
28 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­search Ideas

JsevillamolNov 17, 2022, 5:37 PM
21 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

A Ten­ta­tive Timeline of The Near Fu­ture (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability

YitzDec 5, 2022, 5:33 AM
26 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Ad Fraud De­tec­tion Pre­dic­tion Market

jefftkJan 17, 2023, 6:10 PM
17 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Thoughts on hard­ware /​ com­pute re­quire­ments for AGI

Steven ByrnesJan 24, 2023, 2:03 PM
62 points
31 comments24 min readLW link

Do IQ tests mea­sure in­tel­li­gence? - A pre­dic­tion mar­ket on my fu­ture be­liefs about the topic

tailcalledFeb 4, 2023, 11:19 AM
1 point
10 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

Eval­u­at­ing 2022 ACX Predictions

ZviFeb 14, 2023, 12:20 PM
20 points
3 comments23 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

2023 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

ZviFeb 17, 2023, 1:10 PM
25 points
3 comments20 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pre­dic­tion Thread: Make Pre­dic­tions About How Differ­ent Fac­tors Affect AGI X-Risk.

MrThinkFeb 27, 2023, 7:15 PM
15 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Re­sults Pre­dic­tion Thread About How Differ­ent Fac­tors Affect AI X-Risk

MrThinkMar 2, 2023, 10:13 PM
9 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in “Ex­trap­o­lat­ing GPT-N perfor­mance”

Lukas FinnvedenMay 30, 2023, 6:33 PM
57 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Author­i­tar­ian and Sovereign Power uses of Large Lan­guage Models

K. Liam SmithMar 14, 2023, 8:44 AM
7 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(taboo.substack.com)

How well did Man­i­fold pre­dict GPT-4?

David CheeMar 15, 2023, 11:19 PM
49 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

GPT-4 solves Gary Mar­cus-in­duced flubs

JakubKMar 17, 2023, 6:40 AM
56 points
29 comments2 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Ret­ro­spec­tive on ‘GPT-4 Pre­dic­tions’ After the Re­lease of GPT-4

Stephen McAleeseMar 17, 2023, 6:34 PM
26 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

Three Types of In­tel­li­gence Explosion

Mar 17, 2025, 2:47 PM
32 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(www.forethought.org)

Yud­kowsky vs Han­son on FOOM: Whose Pre­dic­tions Were Bet­ter?

1a3ornJun 1, 2023, 7:36 PM
137 points
76 comments24 min readLW link2 reviews

A path to hu­man autonomy

Nathan Helm-BurgerOct 29, 2024, 3:02 AM
53 points
16 comments20 min readLW link

AI #72: Deny­ing the Future

ZviJul 11, 2024, 3:00 PM
45 points
8 comments41 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Is it jus­tifi­able for non-ex­perts to have strong opinions about Gaza?

Jan 8, 2024, 5:31 PM
23 points
12 comments30 min readLW link

Scal­ing of AI train­ing runs will slow down af­ter GPT-5

Maxime RichéApr 26, 2024, 4:05 PM
40 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Moder­ately Skep­ti­cal of “Risks of Mir­ror Biol­ogy”

DavidmanheimDec 20, 2024, 12:57 PM
32 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(substack.com)

[Question] What are we pre­dict­ing for Neu­ral­ink event?

Dr_ManhattanJul 12, 2019, 7:33 PM
32 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­dicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10

Chris_LeongMar 24, 2023, 7:43 PM
29 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Note­book for gen­er­at­ing fore­cast­ing bets

AmandangoSep 26, 2020, 8:36 PM
25 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Man­i­fold: If okay AGI, why?

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 25, 2023, 10:43 PM
120 points
37 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

Bet­ting Thread

AmandangoOct 20, 2020, 2:17 AM
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

A bet for Samo Burja

Nathan Helm-BurgerSep 5, 2024, 4:01 PM
14 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] GJP on AGI

Suh_Prance_AlotApr 3, 2023, 5:21 PM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Some of my pre­dictable up­dates on AI

Aaron_ScherOct 23, 2023, 5:24 PM
32 points
8 comments9 min readLW link

2024 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Blind/​Buy/​Sell/​Hold

ZviJan 9, 2024, 7:30 PM
33 points
2 comments31 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

My views on “doom”

paulfchristianoApr 27, 2023, 5:50 PM
250 points
37 comments2 min readLW link1 review
(ai-alignment.com)

AI Fore­cast­ing: Two Years In

jsteinhardtAug 19, 2023, 11:40 PM
72 points
15 comments11 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Scor­ing 2020 U.S. Pres­i­den­tial Elec­tion Predictions

Zack_M_DavisNov 8, 2020, 2:28 AM
38 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(zackmdavis.net)

Will GPT-5 be able to self-im­prove?

Nathan Helm-BurgerApr 29, 2023, 5:34 PM
18 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

Grad­ing my 2024 AI predictions

Nikola JurkovicJan 2, 2025, 5:01 AM
19 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Will early trans­for­ma­tive AIs pri­mar­ily use text? [Man­i­fold ques­tion]

Fabien RogerOct 2, 2023, 3:05 PM
16 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

2024 in AI predictions

jessicataJan 1, 2025, 8:29 PM
117 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

Sen­tinel min­utes #10/​2025: Trump tar­iffs, US/​China ten­sions, Claude code re­ward hack­ing.

NunoSempereMar 10, 2025, 7:00 PM
25 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(blog.sentinel-team.org)

What 2025 looks like

RubyMay 1, 2023, 10:53 PM
75 points
17 comments15 min readLW link

Su­perfore­cast­ing the premises in “Is power-seek­ing AI an ex­is­ten­tial risk?”

Joe CarlsmithOct 18, 2023, 8:23 PM
31 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Cre­dence polls for 26 claims from the 2019 Review

Bird ConceptJan 9, 2021, 7:13 AM
54 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Su­perfore­cast­ing the Ori­gins of the Covid-19 Pandemic

DanielFilanMar 12, 2024, 7:01 PM
64 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(goodjudgment.substack.com)

Judg­ing Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions

ZviFeb 23, 2021, 5:20 PM
53 points
12 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my­self on SSC’s 2020 predictions

kniteMar 1, 2021, 7:55 PM
15 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

2020 pre­dic­tions—Poli­tics, Econ, Tech

BuckyApr 7, 2021, 2:10 PM
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices

SimonMApr 27, 2021, 2:03 PM
51 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing “What 2026 Looks Like” So Far

Jonny SpicerFeb 24, 2025, 6:55 PM
75 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Rat­ing my AI Predictions

Robert_AIZIDec 21, 2023, 2:07 PM
22 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(aizi.substack.com)

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: No Progress on C. el­e­gans After 10 Years

niconiconiOct 1, 2021, 9:44 PM
223 points
87 comments5 min readLW link2 reviews

2020′s Pre­dic­tion Thread

Ben GoldhaberDec 30, 2019, 11:18 PM
48 points
77 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing progress in lan­guage models

Oct 28, 2021, 8:40 PM
62 points
6 comments12 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

There Meat Come A Scan­dal...

Nicholas / Heather KrossNov 7, 2021, 8:52 PM
31 points
7 comments3 min readLW link
(www.thinkingmuchbetter.com)

Mea­sur­ing and Fore­cast­ing Risks from AI

jsteinhardtNov 12, 2021, 2:30 AM
24 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Covid Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets at Polymarket

ZviDec 2, 2021, 12:50 PM
39 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

From Con­sid­er­a­tions to Probabilities

jsteinhardtDec 31, 2021, 2:10 AM
10 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2022)

Daniel KokotajloJan 1, 2022, 7:49 PM
13 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2022

ikeJan 2, 2022, 6:34 AM
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(misinfounderload.substack.com)

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices—Resolution

SimonMJan 2, 2022, 11:55 AM
56 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

The IHME Report

ZviJan 10, 2022, 3:50 PM
44 points
2 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Poly­mar­ket Covid-19 1/​17/​2022

ZviJan 17, 2022, 4:10 PM
38 points
10 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Scor­ing My As­traZeneca Predictions

Erich_GrunewaldAug 6, 2021, 11:52 AM
7 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Cy­berE­con­omy. The Limits to Growth

Feb 16, 2025, 9:02 PM
−3 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

Con­tra Ace­moglu on AI

Maxwell TabarrokJun 28, 2024, 1:13 PM
48 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

An AI Man­hat­tan Pro­ject is Not Inevitable

Maxwell TabarrokJul 6, 2024, 4:42 PM
39 points
25 comments4 min readLW link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

Fore­cast­ing Un­con­trol­led Spread of AI

Alvin ÅnestrandFeb 22, 2025, 1:05 PM
2 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

[Question] How does some­one prove that their gen­eral in­tel­li­gence is above av­er­age?

M. Y. ZuoSep 16, 2024, 9:01 PM
−3 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gent AI is pos­si­ble in the 2020s

HunterJayAug 13, 2024, 6:03 AM
41 points
3 comments12 min readLW link

An Alter­nate His­tory of the Fu­ture, 2025-2040

Mr BeastlyFeb 24, 2025, 5:53 AM
3 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

[Cross­post] Strate­gic wealth ac­cu­mu­la­tion un­der trans­for­ma­tive AI expectations

Feb 25, 2025, 9:50 PM
5 points
0 comments17 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Pre­dic­tions of Near-Term So­cietal Changes Due to Ar­tifi­cial Intelligence

AnnapurnaDec 29, 2024, 2:53 PM
10 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(jorgevelez.substack.com)

When do ex­perts think hu­man-level AI will be cre­ated?

Dec 30, 2024, 6:20 AM
10 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(aisafety.info)

[Question] Will Orion/​Gem­ini 2/​Llama-4 out­perform o1

LuigiPaganiNov 18, 2024, 9:15 PM
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

LLM chat­bots have ~half of the kinds of “con­scious­ness” that hu­mans be­lieve in. Hu­mans should avoid go­ing crazy about that.

Andrew_CritchNov 22, 2024, 3:26 AM
76 points
53 comments5 min readLW link

“Map of AI Fu­tures”—An in­ter­ac­tive flowchart

swanteNov 27, 2024, 9:31 PM
69 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(swantescholz.github.io)

Pre­dict 2025 AI ca­pa­bil­ities (by Sun­day)

Jan 15, 2025, 12:16 AM
54 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Ad­dress­ing doubts of AI progress: Why GPT-5 is not late, and why data scarcity isn’t a fun­da­men­tal limiter near term.

LDJJan 17, 2025, 6:53 PM
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Im­proved vi­su­al­iza­tions of METR Time Hori­zons pa­per.

LDJMar 19, 2025, 11:36 PM
20 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AGI: In­sights from Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets and Metaculus

Alvin ÅnestrandFeb 4, 2025, 1:03 PM
13 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Beyond ELO: Re­think­ing Chess Skill as a Mul­tidi­men­sional Ran­dom Variable

Oliver OswaldFeb 10, 2025, 7:19 PM
6 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity of AI-Caused Disaster

Alvin ÅnestrandFeb 12, 2025, 7:40 PM
2 points
2 comments10 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Pre­dic­tions for 2021 (+ a tem­plate for yours)

epiphiJan 5, 2021, 3:35 AM
17 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelAApr 20, 2020, 1:08 AM
24 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Del­e­gate a Forecast

AmandangoJul 28, 2020, 5:43 PM
44 points
25 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

June 2012: 0/​33 Tur­ing Award win­ners pre­dict com­put­ers beat­ing hu­mans at go within next 10 years.

betterthanwellFeb 23, 2018, 11:25 AM
18 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

Another AI Win­ter?

PeterMcCluskeyDec 25, 2019, 12:58 AM
47 points
14 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Pre­dic­tion is hard, es­pe­cially of medicine

gwernDec 23, 2011, 8:34 PM
72 points
48 comments23 min readLW link

Bet Pay­off 1: OpenPhil/​MIRI Grant Increase

Ben PaceNov 9, 2017, 6:31 PM
15 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If I adapted re­ciproc­ity.io for In­sta­gram, would you be more in­clined to use it?

Yoyo YMay 7, 2023, 4:54 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.reciprocity.io)

Isaac Asi­mov’s pre­dic­tions for 2019 from 1984

Jan_KulveitDec 28, 2018, 9:51 AM
39 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.thestar.com)

Atari early

KatjaGraceApr 2, 2020, 6:10 AM
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions: good ac­cu­racy, poor self-calibration

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 11, 2012, 9:55 AM
50 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Con­test 2018

jbeshirApr 30, 2018, 6:26 PM
9 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Do not miss the cut­off for im­mor­tal­ity! There is a prob­a­bil­ity that you will live for­ever as an im­mor­tal su­per­in­tel­li­gent be­ing and you can in­crease your odds by con­vinc­ing oth­ers to make achiev­ing the tech­nolog­i­cal sin­gu­lar­ity as quickly and safely as pos­si­ble the col­lec­tive goal/​pro­ject of all of hu­man­ity, Similar to “Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant.”

Oliver--KlozoffJun 29, 2023, 3:45 AM
1 point
0 comments28 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] Hu­man­ity will sur­vive the next hun­dred years

lsusrFeb 25, 2023, 6:59 PM
33 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

Non-loss of con­trol AGI-re­lated catas­tro­phes are out of con­trol too

Jun 12, 2023, 12:01 PM
2 points
3 comments24 min readLW link

The Col­lid­ing Ex­po­nen­tials of AI

VermillionOct 14, 2020, 11:31 PM
28 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

ZviOct 18, 2020, 10:40 PM
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bet On Biden

sapphireOct 17, 2020, 10:03 PM
42 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

My Bet Log

philhMar 19, 2020, 9:10 PM
16 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Dis­ap­point­ment in the Future

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 1, 2008, 4:45 AM
16 points
27 comments3 min readLW link

1987 Sci-Fi Authors Time­cap­sule Pre­dic­tions For 2012

namespaceDec 28, 2018, 6:50 AM
20 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(web.archive.org)

My Pre­dic­tions for 2018 (& a Tem­plate for Yours)

Zachary JacobiJan 2, 2018, 1:19 AM
8 points
9 comments14 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_RoyNov 21, 2020, 3:24 AM
23 points
6 comments16 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2012)

gwernJan 1, 2012, 9:35 AM
27 points
340 comments1 min readLW link

Road to Proto-AGI 2024

Lucas HeinrichOct 17, 2023, 5:37 PM
−9 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Can we model tech­nolog­i­cal sin­gu­lar­ity as the phase tran­si­tion?

Valentin2026Dec 26, 2020, 3:20 AM
4 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Sin­gu­lar­ity&phase tran­si­tion-2. A pri­ori prob­a­bil­ity and ways to check.

Valentin2026Feb 8, 2021, 2:21 AM
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

ZviApr 27, 2021, 12:40 AM
42 points
39 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

All Metafore­cast COVID predictions

NunoSempereAug 16, 2021, 6:30 PM
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Frame­work of Pre­dic­tion Technologies

isaduanOct 3, 2021, 10:26 AM
8 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

IMO challenge bet with Eliezer

paulfchristianoFeb 26, 2022, 4:50 AM
179 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Omicron #16: Danger in China

ZviMar 14, 2022, 3:50 PM
58 points
10 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How should Deep­Mind’s Chin­chilla re­vise our AI fore­casts?

Cleo NardoSep 15, 2022, 5:54 PM
35 points
12 comments13 min readLW link

Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

Sep 20, 2022, 10:25 PM
28 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Rus­sia will do a nu­clear test

sanxiynOct 4, 2022, 2:59 PM
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

How Much Com­pu­ta­tional Power Does It Take to Match the Hu­man Brain?

habrykaSep 12, 2020, 6:38 AM
44 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Fore­casts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety

gregjusticeMar 5, 2023, 12:47 AM
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(samotsvety.org)
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