Financial Investing

TagLast edit: 28 Jul 2020 1:20 UTC by Ruby

The Financial Investing tag covers concrete personal investment advice, specific investment opportunities (like Bitcoin), and analysis of existing financial investing practices, as well as broad analyses of things like the efficient market hypothesis.

Markets are Anti-Inductive

Eliezer Yudkowsky26 Feb 2009 0:55 UTC

88 points

61 comments4 min readLW link

Debt is an Anti-investment

Jacob Falkovich5 Jul 2018 20:00 UTC

48 points

42 comments6 min readLW link

Review of “Lifecycle Investing”

JessRiedel12 Apr 2020 3:12 UTC

71 points

22 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] Tips/tricks/notes on optimizing investments

Wei Dai6 May 2020 23:21 UTC

83 points

68 comments1 min readLW link

A LessWrong Crypto Autopsy

Scott Alexander28 Jan 2018 9:01 UTC

218 points

129 comments4 min readLW link 4 reviews

Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush?

Wei Dai19 Jul 2014 10:08 UTC

70 points

115 comments1 min readLW link

Risk-aversion and investment (for altruists)

paulfchristiano28 Feb 2013 3:44 UTC

27 points

14 comments7 min readLW link

A Guide to Rational Investing

ColbyDavis15 Sep 2014 2:36 UTC

56 points

45 comments29 min readLW link

A whirlwind tour of Ethereum finance

cata2 Mar 2021 9:36 UTC

233 points

52 comments11 min readLW link

Get Rich Slowly

Jacob Falkovich10 Feb 2017 23:02 UTC

18 points

1 comment13 min readLW link

(putanumonit.com)

Refactoring EMH – Thoughts following the latest market crash

Alex_Shleizer28 Feb 2020 15:53 UTC

33 points

16 comments3 min readLW link

My simple AGI investment & insurance strategy

lc31 Mar 2024 2:51 UTC

129 points

27 comments2 min readLW link

Get Rich Real Slowly

Jacob Falkovich10 Jun 2019 17:51 UTC

35 points

13 comments6 min readLW link

Anti-EMH Evidence (and a plea for help)

Wei Dai5 Dec 2020 18:29 UTC

93 points

44 comments5 min readLW link

Zoom Technologies, Inc. vs. the Efficient Markets Hypothesis

Zack_M_Davis11 May 2020 6:00 UTC

72 points

47 comments4 min readLW link

Contrarian LW views and their economic implications

Larks8 Oct 2014 23:48 UTC

30 points

126 comments1 min readLW link

Dissolving the “Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis Dead?” Question

Alexei2 Aug 2020 4:46 UTC

37 points

4 comments7 min readLW link

Making money with Bitcoin?

Clippy16 Feb 2011 19:17 UTC

49 points

129 comments1 min readLW link

Alpha α and Beta β

lsusr10 Oct 2020 6:27 UTC

9 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

87,000 Hours or: Thoughts on Home Ownership

romeostevensit6 Jul 2019 8:01 UTC

20 points

50 comments8 min readLW link

How to Lose a Fair Game

gilch14 Aug 2020 18:41 UTC

36 points

15 comments7 min readLW link

Redirecting one’s own taxes as an effective altruism method

David Gross13 Nov 2023 15:17 UTC

2 points

34 comments16 min readLW link

[Question] What posts on finance would your find helpful or interesting?

Alexei22 Aug 2020 4:31 UTC

32 points

48 comments1 min readLW link

“The Holy Grail” of portfolio management

Alexei22 Aug 2020 4:25 UTC

51 points

7 comments6 min readLW link

Worth checking your stock trading skills

at_the_zoo8 Nov 2021 19:19 UTC

48 points

37 comments3 min readLW link

Charting Is Mostly Superstition

gilch23 Aug 2020 20:26 UTC

35 points

18 comments7 min readLW link

A No-Nonsense Guide to Early Retirement

tryactions24 Feb 2021 16:37 UTC

75 points

46 comments28 min readLW link

High Stock Prices Make Sense Right Now

johnswentworth3 Jul 2020 20:16 UTC

83 points

27 comments4 min readLW link

Money Stuff

Jacob Falkovich1 Nov 2021 16:08 UTC

103 points

18 comments7 min readLW link

Chapter 4: The Efficient Market Hypothesis

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Mar 2015 19:00 UTC

76 points

5 comments6 min readLW link

How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI

habryka, Zvi, Cosmos and NoahK

6 Nov 2023 23:35 UTC

138 points

82 comments32 min readLW link

The EMH Aten’t Dead

Richard Meadows15 May 2020 20:44 UTC

195 points

87 comments19 min readLW link

Post-crash market efficiency 1696-2020

bfinn22 May 2020 14:13 UTC

22 points

8 comments3 min readLW link

The BTC equilibriumating and the ETH one-eightening

Randomized, Controlled25 May 2021 21:32 UTC

22 points

7 comments13 min readLW link

You Need More Money

gilch12 Aug 2020 6:16 UTC

55 points

16 comments7 min readLW link

Stock market hints for 2021 from past crashes

bfinn30 Dec 2020 20:05 UTC

19 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

In Most Markets, Lower Risk Means Higher Reward

dawangy13 Aug 2021 17:32 UTC

33 points

13 comments4 min readLW link

Approval Extraction Advertised as Production

Benquo15 Dec 2019 14:51 UTC

82 points

39 comments19 min readLW link 3 reviews

(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

[Question] Ethical and incentive-compatible way to share finances with partner when you both work?

Chad Nauseam28 Feb 2023 18:28 UTC

14 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

(www.reddit.com)

MSP Article Discussion Meetup: The EMH, Long-Term Investing, and Leveraged ETFs

25Hour27 Dec 2023 16:50 UTC

3 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

On the Crisis at Silicon Valley Bank

Zvi16 Mar 2023 15:50 UTC

59 points

9 comments41 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ethical AI investments?

Justin wilson17 Mar 2023 17:43 UTC

24 points

15 comments1 min readLW link

Notes on Frugality

David Gross5 Feb 2021 16:54 UTC

15 points

3 comments12 min readLW link

Retirement Accounts and Short Timelines

jefftk19 Feb 2024 18:50 UTC

83 points

35 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Rational retirement plans

Ik15 May 2023 17:49 UTC

5 points

17 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Titan (the Wealthfront of active stock picking) - What’s the catch?

Liron6 Aug 2020 1:06 UTC

10 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Increase the tax value of donations with high-variance investments?

Brendan Long3 Mar 2024 1:39 UTC

20 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What is the alpha in one bit of evidence?

J Bostock22 Oct 2024 21:57 UTC

20 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Which investments for aligned-AI outcomes?

tailcalled4 Jan 2024 13:28 UTC

8 points

9 comments2 min readLW link

Investment idea: basket of tech stocks weighted towards AI

ioannes12 Aug 2020 21:30 UTC

19 points

7 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Does anyone know good essays on how different AI timelines will affect asset prices?

Tim Liptrot6 Mar 2024 4:21 UTC

8 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is your financial portfolio?

Algon28 Jun 2023 18:39 UTC

11 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

Less Wrong used to like Bitcoin before it was cool. Time for a revisit?

betterthanwell20 Jun 2012 13:40 UTC

26 points

72 comments1 min readLW link

Financial Effectiveness Repository

Gunnar_Zarncke18 Nov 2014 9:57 UTC

7 points

62 comments1 min readLW link

Preparing for a Rational Financial Planning Sequence

elharo22 May 2013 11:48 UTC

29 points

65 comments3 min readLW link

The Rational Investor, Part I

wubbles30 May 2013 0:32 UTC

−2 points

29 comments3 min readLW link

How to Price a Futures Contract

lsusr9 Oct 2020 7:37 UTC

15 points

6 comments2 min readLW link

Weird Things About Money

abramdemski3 Oct 2020 17:13 UTC

79 points

31 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] How to take advanage of the market’s irrationality regarding AGI?

GeneSmith16 Aug 2023 3:30 UTC

23 points

6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Generalize Kelly to Account for # Iterations?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 16:36 UTC

24 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

How should TurnTrout handle his DeepMind equity situation?

habryka and TurnTrout

16 Oct 2023 18:25 UTC

61 points

30 comments6 min readLW link

Thoughts on the $GME situation

Pranav Sharma28 Jan 2021 5:15 UTC

9 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing: Missing Link of the Dutch Book Arguments

johnswentworth1 Jun 2019 20:34 UTC

42 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

Why you should consider buying Bitcoin right now (Jan 2015) if you have high risk tolerance

Ander13 Jan 2015 20:02 UTC

8 points

139 comments8 min readLW link

General Bitcoin discussion thread (May 2011)

Kaj_Sotala20 May 2011 14:03 UTC

9 points

50 comments1 min readLW link

General Bitcoin discussion thread (June 2011)

SilasBarta10 Jun 2011 23:21 UTC

6 points

104 comments1 min readLW link

A new acausal trading platform: RobinShould

Matthew Barnett1 Apr 2021 16:56 UTC

115 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

People Will Listen

sapphire11 Apr 2021 16:51 UTC

85 points

36 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Best empirical evidence on better than SP500 investment returns?

bluefalcon25 Apr 2021 5:13 UTC

12 points

23 comments1 min readLW link

Why quantitative finance is so hard

lsusr7 May 2021 19:29 UTC

44 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Google lends further legitimacy to Bitcoin

SilasBarta21 Mar 2011 22:26 UTC

11 points

44 comments1 min readLW link

[LINKs] Bitcoin hits mainstream; intelligent technical critique

SilasBarta19 May 2011 18:30 UTC

12 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] Two articles on Bitcoin

David_Gerard16 May 2011 14:36 UTC

8 points

63 comments1 min readLW link

The S&P 500 Will Drop Below 3029 Before July 16 (65 percent confidence)

FCCC10 Oct 2021 4:02 UTC

9 points

36 comments9 min readLW link

Why is it rational to invest in retirement? I don’t get it.

diegocaleiro16 May 2013 1:28 UTC

28 points

114 comments1 min readLW link

The Inefficient Market Hypothesis

lsusr24 Apr 2020 7:33 UTC

71 points

19 comments2 min readLW link

ESRogs’s Shortform

ESRogs29 Apr 2020 8:03 UTC

7 points

44 comments1 min readLW link

Retail Investor Advantages

leogao7 Dec 2021 2:08 UTC

13 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Hedging omicron impact to supply chains

mukashi17 Jan 2022 18:49 UTC

29 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

You have to create your own personal finance system

Nicole Dieker23 Jan 2022 18:53 UTC

3 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Money-generating environments vs. wealth-building environments (or “my thoughts on the stock market”)

Nicole Dieker4 Feb 2022 17:37 UTC

7 points

9 comments7 min readLW link

My investment protects you. Your investment protects me.

Nicole Dieker9 Feb 2022 20:12 UTC

−7 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Isn’t Tesla stock highly undervalued?

Liron18 May 2020 1:56 UTC

31 points

41 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Ways to invest your wealth if you believe in a high-variance future?

Alex_Altair11 Mar 2022 16:07 UTC

51 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

How Does The Finance Industry Generate Real Economic Value?

johnswentworth1 Apr 2022 15:21 UTC

53 points

9 comments6 min readLW link

The Efficient LessWrong Hypothesis—Stock Investing Competition

MrThink11 Apr 2022 20:43 UTC

30 points

35 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How to bet against civilizational adequacy?

Wei Dai12 Aug 2022 23:33 UTC

54 points

20 comments1 min readLW link

Semi-conductor/AI Stock Discussion.

sapphire25 Nov 2022 23:35 UTC

28 points

24 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Looking for ideas of public assets (stocks, funds, ETFs) that I can invest in to have a chance at profiting from the mass adoption and commercialization of AI technology

Annapurna7 Dec 2022 22:35 UTC

15 points

9 comments1 min readLW link

Investing for a World Transformed by AI

PeterMcCluskey1 Jan 2023 2:47 UTC

67 points

21 comments6 min readLW link

(bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] What Other Lines of Work are Safe from AI Automation?

RogerDearnaley11 Jul 2024 10:01 UTC

29 points

35 comments5 min readLW link

On AI and Interest Rates

Zvi17 Jan 2023 15:00 UTC

79 points

13 comments8 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Running the numbers: Cryo vs Discount rate

RomeoStevens4 Jun 2014 7:54 UTC

9 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] AI Winter Is Coming—How to profit from it?

maximkazhenkov5 Dec 2020 20:23 UTC

15 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

AI play for the next 3 years: Lemonade Insurance

Prin (Premek) Paska15 Feb 2024 13:48 UTC

2 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

(docs.google.com)

Unit economics of LLM APIs

dschwarz, nikos, Lawrence Phillips and kotrfa

27 Aug 2024 16:51 UTC

42 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Startup Stock Options: the Shortest Complete Guide for Employees

Boris T5 Jun 2024 15:03 UTC

17 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(borisagain.substack.com)

Procedural Knowledge Gaps

Alicorn8 Feb 2011 3:17 UTC

196 points

1,495 comments1 min readLW link

“Newton’s laws” of finance

pchvykov21 Jun 2024 9:41 UTC

9 points

3 comments10 min readLW link

Case Story: Lack of Consumer Protection Procedures AI Manipulation and the Threat of Fund Concentration in Crypto Seeking Assistance to Fund a Civil Case to Establish Facts and Protect Vulnerable Consumers from Damage Caused by Automated Systems

Petr Andreev8 Aug 2024 5:55 UTC

−9 points

0 comments9 min readLW link

Patterns or getting to Objective Truth – A thought piece on Artificial Intelligence

Thehumanproject.ai20 Oct 2024 16:45 UTC

1 point

0 comments8 min readLW link

Patterns or getting to Objective Truth – A thought piece on Artificial Intelligence

Thehumanproject.ai20 Oct 2024 16:45 UTC

1 point

0 comments8 min readLW link

Truth Terminal: A reconstruction of events

crvr.fr and MTorrents

17 Nov 2024 23:51 UTC

1 point

1 comment7 min readLW link

Bitcoin and ESG Investing

Annapurna15 Feb 2021 21:01 UTC

3 points

20 comments2 min readLW link

Self-Predicting Markets

eapache10 Jun 2020 22:39 UTC

26 points

19 comments2 min readLW link

Competitive Truth-Seeking

SatvikBeri1 Nov 2017 12:06 UTC

62 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

The Power to Teach Concepts Better

Liron23 Sep 2019 0:21 UTC

90 points

22 comments8 min readLW link 1 review

The Power to Judge Startup Ideas

Liron4 Sep 2019 15:07 UTC

94 points

28 comments8 min readLW link

In Defense of Finance

Jacob Falkovich17 Dec 2018 16:59 UTC

51 points

31 comments1 min readLW link

(putanumonit.com)

An investment analogy for Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]9 Dec 2014 7:50 UTC

9 points

36 comments1 min readLW link

Why don’t singularitarians bet on the creation of AGI by buying stocks?

John_Maxwell11 Mar 2020 16:27 UTC

43 points

21 comments4 min readLW link

Twenty basic rules for intelligent money management

James_Miller19 Mar 2015 17:57 UTC

54 points

55 comments9 min readLW link

Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jun 2007 22:30 UTC

23 points

40 comments2 min readLW link

Repeat Until Broke

gilch13 Aug 2020 7:19 UTC

14 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

The Wrong Side of Risk

gilch16 Aug 2020 3:50 UTC

22 points

12 comments3 min readLW link

Finance Followups

Jacob Falkovich17 Jan 2019 17:54 UTC

26 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

I Am not a Tax Lawyer

Jacob Falkovich24 Dec 2017 3:20 UTC

12 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(putanumonit.com)

Are long-term investments a good way to help the future?

Dacyn30 Apr 2018 14:41 UTC

10 points

50 comments3 min readLW link

Alpha

Erich_Grunewald1 Jul 2023 16:05 UTC

65 points

2 comments14 min readLW link

(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Risk is not empirically correlated with return

jsalvatier22 Nov 2010 5:31 UTC

11 points

28 comments2 min readLW link

“Risk” means surprise

PhilGoetz22 May 2015 4:47 UTC

12 points

29 comments2 min readLW link

Notes from the Qatar Center for Global Banking and Finance 3rd Annual Conference

PixelatedPenguin7 Jul 2023 23:48 UTC

2 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Kelly Bet on Everything

Jacob Falkovich10 Jul 2020 2:48 UTC

101 points

20 comments5 min readLW link 2 reviews

The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster

Thomas Kwa1 Sep 2020 21:41 UTC

43 points

44 comments6 min readLW link

A simple way of exploiting AI’s coming economic impact may be highly-impactful

kuira16 Jul 2023 9:33 UTC

11 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument

Annapurna2 Dec 2020 3:33 UTC

18 points

6 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Are index funds still a good investment?

Kaj_Sotala2 Dec 2020 21:31 UTC

38 points

25 comments1 min readLW link

Helping loved ones with their finances: the why and how of an unusually impactful opportunity

Sam Anschell21 May 2024 18:48 UTC

0 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] What trade should we make if we’re all getting the new COVID strain?

Jacob Falkovich25 Dec 2020 7:09 UTC

79 points

73 comments1 min readLW link

The GameStop Situation: Simplified

Annapurna29 Jan 2021 17:55 UTC

55 points

13 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Reasonable ways for an average LW retail investor to get upside risk?

Randomized, Controlled16 Feb 2021 19:44 UTC

21 points

22 comments1 min readLW link

Market Misconceptions

gilch20 Aug 2020 4:46 UTC

27 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

What is the VIX?

Annapurna26 Feb 2021 1:05 UTC

21 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

A Primer on United States Treasuries

Annapurna10 Mar 2021 3:08 UTC

14 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

Exploiting Crypto Prediction Markets for Fun and Profit

Srdjan Miletic13 Mar 2021 2:31 UTC

31 points

25 comments5 min readLW link

The EMH is False—Specific Strong Evidence

sapphire18 Mar 2021 18:38 UTC

62 points

83 comments6 min readLW link

Maximizing Yield on US Dollar Pegged Coins

Annapurna8 Jun 2021 1:12 UTC

15 points

7 comments2 min readLW link

Coronavirus crash vs history

bfinn14 Jun 2021 10:55 UTC

39 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

An Introduction to Prediction Markets

Annapurna14 Jun 2021 16:43 UTC

9 points

12 comments4 min readLW link

X-Risk, Anthropics, & Peter Thiel’s Investment Thesis

Jackson Wagner26 Oct 2021 18:50 UTC

21 points

1 comment19 min readLW link

[Question] May I ask for some help getting started with crypto?

SlainLadyMondegreen1 Nov 2021 21:52 UTC

5 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

Equity premium puzzles

Ege Erdil and Metaculus

16 Nov 2021 20:50 UTC

20 points

4 comments12 min readLW link

(www.metaculus.com)

What on Earth is a Series I savings bond?

rossry11 Dec 2021 12:18 UTC

11 points

7 comments7 min readLW link

Two ominous charts on the financial markets

arunto8 Jan 2022 14:07 UTC

25 points

23 comments2 min readLW link

milo’s Shortform

milo24 Jan 2022 15:36 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Quest for Holy Grail of Hedging in Retail Portfolios!

milo25 Jan 2022 4:09 UTC

0 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

Books Worthy of Integration

Roven Skyfal20 Feb 2022 8:03 UTC

14 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

Climate-contingent Finance, and A Generalized Mechanism for X-Risk Reduction Financing

John Nay26 Sep 2022 13:23 UTC

0 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors (James Choi, NBER)

BrownHairedEevee16 Oct 2022 22:21 UTC

17 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

(spinup-000d1a-wp-offload-media.s3.amazonaws.com)

Life, Death, and Finance in the Cosmic Multiverse

peterb16 Oct 2022 18:57 UTC

2 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

The FTX Saga—Simplified

Annapurna16 Nov 2022 2:42 UTC

44 points

10 comments7 min readLW link

(jorgevelez.substack.com)

AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years

basil.halperin, J. Zachary Mazlish and tmychow

10 Jan 2023 16:06 UTC

117 points

44 comments26 min readLW link

Against using stock prices to forecast AI timelines

basil.halperin, tmychow and J. Zachary Mazlish

10 Jan 2023 16:03 UTC

23 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Why real estate is the only investment that matters in AI dominated future

G20 Jan 2023 19:40 UTC

7 points

10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Will the Bitcoin fee market actually work?

TropicalFruit11 Mar 2023 0:02 UTC

10 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

“Liquidity” vs “solvency” in bank runs (and some notes on Silicon Valley Bank)

rossry12 Mar 2023 9:16 UTC

107 points

27 comments12 min readLW link

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