Financial Investing

TagLast edit: Jul 28, 2020, 1:20 AM by Ruby

The Financial Investing tag covers concrete personal investment advice, specific investment opportunities (like Bitcoin), and analysis of existing financial investing practices, as well as broad analyses of things like the efficient market hypothesis.

Markets are Anti-Inductive

Eliezer YudkowskyFeb 26, 2009, 12:55 AM

90 points

62 comments4 min readLW link

Debt is an Anti-investment

Jacob FalkovichJul 5, 2018, 8:00 PM

48 points

42 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Tips/tricks/notes on optimizing investments

Wei DaiMay 6, 2020, 11:21 PM

83 points

68 comments1 min readLW link

Review of “Lifecycle Investing”

JessRiedelApr 12, 2020, 3:12 AM

71 points

22 comments13 min readLW link

A LessWrong Crypto Autopsy

Scott AlexanderJan 28, 2018, 9:01 AM

218 points

129 comments4 min readLW link 4 reviews

Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush?

Wei DaiJul 19, 2014, 10:08 AM

71 points

115 comments1 min readLW link

Risk-aversion and investment (for altruists)

paulfchristianoFeb 28, 2013, 3:44 AM

27 points

14 comments7 min readLW link

A Guide to Rational Investing

ColbyDavisSep 15, 2014, 2:36 AM

56 points

45 comments29 min readLW link

A whirlwind tour of Ethereum finance

cataMar 2, 2021, 9:36 AM

234 points

52 comments11 min readLW link

Refactoring EMH – Thoughts following the latest market crash

Alex_ShleizerFeb 28, 2020, 3:53 PM

33 points

16 comments3 min readLW link

Get Rich Slowly

Jacob FalkovichFeb 10, 2017, 11:02 PM

18 points

1 comment13 min readLW link

(putanumonit.com)

My simple AGI investment & insurance strategy

lcMar 31, 2024, 2:51 AM

131 points

27 comments2 min readLW link

Get Rich Real Slowly

Jacob FalkovichJun 10, 2019, 5:51 PM

35 points

13 comments6 min readLW link

Worth checking your stock trading skills

at_the_zooNov 8, 2021, 7:19 PM

48 points

37 comments3 min readLW link

87,000 Hours or: Thoughts on Home Ownership

romeostevensitJul 6, 2019, 8:01 AM

20 points

50 comments8 min readLW link

Contrarian LW views and their economic implications

LarksOct 8, 2014, 11:48 PM

30 points

126 comments1 min readLW link

Making money with Bitcoin?

ClippyFeb 16, 2011, 7:17 PM

49 points

129 comments1 min readLW link

Alpha α and Beta β

lsusrOct 10, 2020, 6:27 AM

9 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Charting Is Mostly Superstition

gilchAug 23, 2020, 8:26 PM

37 points

18 comments7 min readLW link

“The Holy Grail” of portfolio management

AlexeiAug 22, 2020, 4:25 AM

51 points

7 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] What posts on finance would your find helpful or interesting?

AlexeiAug 22, 2020, 4:31 AM

32 points

48 comments1 min readLW link

How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI

habryka, Zvi, Cosmos and NoahK

Nov 6, 2023, 11:35 PM

168 points

91 comments32 min readLW link 1 review

How to Lose a Fair Game

gilchAug 14, 2020, 6:41 PM

36 points

15 comments7 min readLW link

Zoom Technologies, Inc. vs. the Efficient Markets Hypothesis

Zack_M_DavisMay 11, 2020, 6:00 AM

72 points

47 comments4 min readLW link

Redirecting one’s own taxes as an effective altruism method

David GrossNov 13, 2023, 3:17 PM

−5 points

34 comments16 min readLW link

Dissolving the “Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis Dead?” Question

AlexeiAug 2, 2020, 4:46 AM

37 points

4 comments7 min readLW link

Anti-EMH Evidence (and a plea for help)

Wei DaiDec 5, 2020, 6:29 PM

93 points

44 comments5 min readLW link

Chapter 4: The Efficient Market Hypothesis

Eliezer YudkowskyMar 14, 2015, 7:00 PM

78 points

6 comments6 min readLW link

Tail SP 500 Call Options

sapphireJan 23, 2025, 5:21 AM

59 points

28 comments2 min readLW link

A No-Nonsense Guide to Early Retirement

tryactionsFeb 24, 2021, 4:37 PM

75 points

46 comments28 min readLW link

Stock market hints for 2021 from past crashes

bfinnDec 30, 2020, 8:05 PM

19 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

Post-crash market efficiency 1696-2020

bfinnMay 22, 2020, 2:13 PM

22 points

8 comments3 min readLW link

You Need More Money

gilchAug 12, 2020, 6:16 AM

55 points

16 comments7 min readLW link

The BTC equilibriumating and the ETH one-eightening

Randomized, ControlledMay 25, 2021, 9:32 PM

22 points

7 comments13 min readLW link

In Most Markets, Lower Risk Means Higher Reward

dawangyAug 13, 2021, 5:32 PM

33 points

13 comments4 min readLW link

Money Stuff

Jacob FalkovichNov 1, 2021, 4:08 PM

103 points

18 comments7 min readLW link

The EMH Aten’t Dead

Richard MeadowsMay 15, 2020, 8:44 PM

197 points

88 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] What is the alpha in one bit of evidence?

J BostockOct 22, 2024, 9:57 PM

20 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

High Stock Prices Make Sense Right Now

johnswentworthJul 3, 2020, 8:16 PM

83 points

27 comments4 min readLW link

Notes on Frugality

David GrossFeb 5, 2021, 4:54 PM

15 points

3 comments12 min readLW link

MSP Article Discussion Meetup: The EMH, Long-Term Investing, and Leveraged ETFs

25HourDec 27, 2023, 4:50 PM

3 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] Increase the tax value of donations with high-variance investments?

Brendan LongMar 3, 2024, 1:39 AM

20 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Which investments for aligned-AI outcomes?

tailcalledJan 4, 2024, 1:28 PM

8 points

9 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Does anyone know good essays on how different AI timelines will affect asset prices?

Tim LiptrotMar 6, 2024, 4:21 AM

8 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Retirement Accounts and Short Timelines

jefftkFeb 19, 2024, 6:50 PM

83 points

35 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Post-Quantum Investing: Dump Crypto for Index Funds and Real Estate?

GDec 11, 2024, 11:59 AM

8 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What Other Lines of Work are Safe from AI Automation?

RogerDearnaleyJul 11, 2024, 10:01 AM

30 points

35 comments5 min readLW link

When Is Insurance Worth It?

kqrDec 19, 2024, 7:07 PM

172 points

71 comments4 min readLW link

(entropicthoughts.com)

How to bet on AI, without helping AGI?

Nicholas / Heather KrossNov 29, 2024, 10:46 PM

24 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

debating buying NVDA in 2019

bhauthJan 4, 2025, 5:06 AM

27 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(bhauth.com)

Less Wrong used to like Bitcoin before it was cool. Time for a revisit?

betterthanwellJun 20, 2012, 1:40 PM

26 points

72 comments1 min readLW link

Financial Effectiveness Repository

Gunnar_ZarnckeNov 18, 2014, 9:57 AM

7 points

62 comments1 min readLW link

Preparing for a Rational Financial Planning Sequence

elharoMay 22, 2013, 11:48 AM

30 points

65 comments3 min readLW link

The Rational Investor, Part I

wubblesMay 30, 2013, 12:32 AM

−2 points

29 comments3 min readLW link

The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing: Missing Link of the Dutch Book Arguments

johnswentworthJun 1, 2019, 8:34 PM

42 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

Why you should consider buying Bitcoin right now (Jan 2015) if you have high risk tolerance

AnderJan 13, 2015, 8:02 PM

8 points

139 comments8 min readLW link

General Bitcoin discussion thread (May 2011)

Kaj_SotalaMay 20, 2011, 2:03 PM

9 points

50 comments1 min readLW link

General Bitcoin discussion thread (June 2011)

SilasBartaJun 10, 2011, 11:21 PM

6 points

104 comments1 min readLW link

Google lends further legitimacy to Bitcoin

SilasBartaMar 21, 2011, 10:26 PM

11 points

44 comments1 min readLW link

[LINKs] Bitcoin hits mainstream; intelligent technical critique

SilasBartaMay 19, 2011, 6:30 PM

12 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] Two articles on Bitcoin

David_GerardMay 16, 2011, 2:36 PM

8 points

63 comments1 min readLW link

Why is it rational to invest in retirement? I don’t get it.

diegocaleiroMay 16, 2013, 1:28 AM

28 points

114 comments1 min readLW link

The Inefficient Market Hypothesis

lsusrApr 24, 2020, 7:33 AM

75 points

19 comments2 min readLW link

ESRogs’s Shortform

ESRogsApr 29, 2020, 8:03 AM

7 points

44 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Isn’t Tesla stock highly undervalued?

LironMay 18, 2020, 1:56 AM

31 points

41 comments2 min readLW link

SWE Automation Is Coming: Consider Selling Your Crypto

A_donorFeb 13, 2025, 8:17 PM

9 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

Running the numbers: Cryo vs Discount rate

RomeoStevensJun 4, 2014, 7:54 AM

9 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

Approval Extraction Advertised as Production

BenquoDec 15, 2019, 2:51 PM

82 points

39 comments19 min readLW link 3 reviews

(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Rational retirement plans

IkMay 15, 2023, 5:49 PM

5 points

17 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Titan (the Wealthfront of active stock picking) - What’s the catch?

LironAug 6, 2020, 1:06 AM

10 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

Investment idea: basket of tech stocks weighted towards AI

ioannesAug 12, 2020, 9:30 PM

19 points

7 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What is your financial portfolio?

AlgonJun 28, 2023, 6:39 PM

11 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

Weird Things About Money

abramdemskiOct 3, 2020, 5:13 PM

79 points

31 comments6 min readLW link

How to Price a Futures Contract

lsusrOct 9, 2020, 7:37 AM

22 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How to take advanage of the market’s irrationality regarding AGI?

GeneSmithAug 16, 2023, 3:30 AM

24 points

7 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Generalize Kelly to Account for # Iterations?

abramdemskiNov 2, 2020, 4:36 PM

24 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

How should TurnTrout handle his DeepMind equity situation?

habryka and TurnTrout

Oct 16, 2023, 6:25 PM

63 points

36 comments6 min readLW link 1 review

Thoughts on the $GME situation

Pranav SharmaJan 28, 2021, 5:15 AM

9 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

A new acausal trading platform: RobinShould

Matthew BarnettApr 1, 2021, 4:56 PM

116 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

People Will Listen

sapphireApr 11, 2021, 4:51 PM

85 points

36 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Best empirical evidence on better than SP500 investment returns?

bluefalconApr 25, 2021, 5:13 AM

12 points

23 comments1 min readLW link

Why quantitative finance is so hard

lsusrMay 7, 2021, 7:29 PM

44 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

The S&P 500 Will Drop Below 3029 Before July 16 (65 percent confidence)

FCCCOct 10, 2021, 4:02 AM

9 points

36 comments9 min readLW link

Retail Investor Advantages

leogaoDec 7, 2021, 2:08 AM

13 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Hedging omicron impact to supply chains

mukashiJan 17, 2022, 6:49 PM

29 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

You have to create your own personal finance system

Nicole DiekerJan 23, 2022, 6:53 PM

3 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Money-generating environments vs. wealth-building environments (or “my thoughts on the stock market”)

Nicole DiekerFeb 4, 2022, 5:37 PM

7 points

9 comments7 min readLW link

My investment protects you. Your investment protects me.

Nicole DiekerFeb 9, 2022, 8:12 PM

−7 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Ways to invest your wealth if you believe in a high-variance future?

Alex_AltairMar 11, 2022, 4:07 PM

51 points

13 comments1 min readLW link

How Does The Finance Industry Generate Real Economic Value?

johnswentworthApr 1, 2022, 3:21 PM

53 points

9 comments6 min readLW link

The Efficient LessWrong Hypothesis—Stock Investing Competition

MrThinkApr 11, 2022, 8:43 PM

30 points

35 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How to bet against civilizational adequacy?

Wei DaiAug 12, 2022, 11:33 PM

54 points

20 comments1 min readLW link

Semi-conductor/AI Stock Discussion.

sapphireNov 25, 2022, 11:35 PM

28 points

25 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Looking for ideas of public assets (stocks, funds, ETFs) that I can invest in to have a chance at profiting from the mass adoption and commercialization of AI technology

AnnapurnaDec 7, 2022, 10:35 PM

15 points

9 comments1 min readLW link

Investing for a World Transformed by AI

PeterMcCluskeyJan 1, 2023, 2:47 AM

70 points

24 comments6 min readLW link 1 review

(bayesianinvestor.com)

On AI and Interest Rates

ZviJan 17, 2023, 3:00 PM

79 points

13 comments8 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Ethical and incentive-compatible way to share finances with partner when you both work?

Chad NauseamFeb 28, 2023, 6:28 PM

14 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

(www.reddit.com)

On the Crisis at Silicon Valley Bank

ZviMar 16, 2023, 3:50 PM

59 points

9 comments41 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Ethical AI investments?

Justin wilsonMar 17, 2023, 5:43 PM

24 points

15 comments1 min readLW link

A simple way of exploiting AI’s coming economic impact may be highly-impactful

kuiraJul 16, 2023, 9:33 AM

11 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Quest for Holy Grail of Hedging in Retail Portfolios!

miloJan 25, 2022, 4:09 AM

0 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

The Case For Geopolitical Financial Speculation

prueApr 1, 2025, 9:09 PM

3 points

0 comments13 min readLW link

(www.prue0.com)

[Question] How do we quantify non-philanthropic contributions from Buffet and Soros?

PhilosophistryDec 20, 2024, 10:50 PM

3 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Will the Bitcoin fee market actually work?

TropicalFruitMar 11, 2023, 12:02 AM

10 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

Books Worthy of Integration

Roven SkyfalFeb 20, 2022, 8:03 AM

15 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument

AnnapurnaDec 2, 2020, 3:33 AM

18 points

6 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Are index funds still a good investment?

Kaj_SotalaDec 2, 2020, 9:31 PM

38 points

25 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] AI Winter Is Coming—How to profit from it?

maximkazhenkovDec 5, 2020, 8:23 PM

15 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years

basil.halperin, J. Zachary Mazlish and tmychow

Jan 10, 2023, 4:06 PM

119 points

44 comments26 min readLW link

[Question] What trade should we make if we’re all getting the new COVID strain?

Jacob FalkovichDec 25, 2020, 7:09 AM

79 points

73 comments1 min readLW link

Against using stock prices to forecast AI timelines

basil.halperin, tmychow and J. Zachary Mazlish

Jan 10, 2023, 4:03 PM

23 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

The GameStop Situation: Simplified

AnnapurnaJan 29, 2021, 5:55 PM

55 points

13 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Reasonable ways for an average LW retail investor to get upside risk?

Randomized, ControlledFeb 16, 2021, 7:44 PM

21 points

22 comments1 min readLW link

Market Misconceptions

gilchAug 20, 2020, 4:46 AM

27 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

“Newton’s laws” of finance

pchvykovJun 21, 2024, 9:41 AM

9 points

3 comments10 min readLW link

What is the VIX?

AnnapurnaFeb 26, 2021, 1:05 AM

21 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

A Primer on United States Treasuries

AnnapurnaMar 10, 2021, 3:08 AM

14 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

Exploiting Crypto Prediction Markets for Fun and Profit

Srdjan MileticMar 13, 2021, 2:31 AM

31 points

25 comments5 min readLW link

The EMH is False—Specific Strong Evidence

sapphireMar 18, 2021, 6:38 PM

62 points

83 comments6 min readLW link

“Liquidity” vs “solvency” in bank runs (and some notes on Silicon Valley Bank)

rossryMar 12, 2023, 9:16 AM

108 points

27 comments12 min readLW link

Why real estate is the only investment that matters in AI dominated future

GJan 20, 2023, 7:40 PM

7 points

10 comments1 min readLW link

Climate-contingent Finance, and A Generalized Mechanism for X-Risk Reduction Financing

John NaySep 26, 2022, 1:23 PM

0 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors (James Choi, NBER)

BrownHairedEeveeOct 16, 2022, 10:21 PM

17 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

(spinup-000d1a-wp-offload-media.s3.amazonaws.com)

Procedural Knowledge Gaps

AlicornFeb 8, 2011, 3:17 AM

197 points

1,495 comments1 min readLW link

Maximizing Yield on US Dollar Pegged Coins

AnnapurnaJun 8, 2021, 1:12 AM

15 points

7 comments2 min readLW link

Coronavirus crash vs history

bfinnJun 14, 2021, 10:55 AM

39 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

An Introduction to Prediction Markets

AnnapurnaJun 14, 2021, 4:43 PM

9 points

12 comments4 min readLW link

Startup Stock Options: the Shortest Complete Guide for Employees

Boris TJun 5, 2024, 3:03 PM

17 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(borisagain.substack.com)

Life, Death, and Finance in the Cosmic Multiverse

peterbOct 16, 2022, 6:57 PM

2 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

X-Risk, Anthropics, & Peter Thiel’s Investment Thesis

Jackson WagnerOct 26, 2021, 6:50 PM

21 points

1 comment19 min readLW link

Unit economics of LLM APIs

dschwarz, nikos, Lawrence Phillips and kotrfa

Aug 27, 2024, 4:51 PM

42 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] May I ask for some help getting started with crypto?

SlainLadyMondegreenNov 1, 2021, 9:52 PM

5 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

AI play for the next 3 years: Lemonade Insurance

Prin (Premek) PaskaFeb 15, 2024, 1:48 PM

2 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

(docs.google.com)

Self-Predicting Markets

eapacheJun 10, 2020, 10:39 PM

26 points

19 comments2 min readLW link

Equity premium puzzles

Ege Erdil and Metaculus

Nov 16, 2021, 8:50 PM

20 points

4 comments12 min readLW link

(www.metaculus.com)

Competitive Truth-Seeking

SatvikBeriNov 1, 2017, 12:06 PM

62 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

The Power to Teach Concepts Better

LironSep 23, 2019, 12:21 AM

91 points

23 comments8 min readLW link 1 review

The FTX Saga—Simplified

AnnapurnaNov 16, 2022, 2:42 AM

44 points

10 comments7 min readLW link

(jorgevelez.substack.com)

What on Earth is a Series I savings bond?

rossryDec 11, 2021, 12:18 PM

11 points

7 comments7 min readLW link

The Power to Judge Startup Ideas

LironSep 4, 2019, 3:07 PM

94 points

28 comments8 min readLW link

In Defense of Finance

Jacob FalkovichDec 17, 2018, 4:59 PM

51 points

31 comments1 min readLW link

(putanumonit.com)

Bitcoin and ESG Investing

AnnapurnaFeb 15, 2021, 9:01 PM

3 points

20 comments2 min readLW link

An investment analogy for Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]Dec 9, 2014, 7:50 AM

9 points

36 comments1 min readLW link

Two ominous charts on the financial markets

aruntoJan 8, 2022, 2:07 PM

25 points

23 comments2 min readLW link

Why don’t singularitarians bet on the creation of AGI by buying stocks?

John_MaxwellMar 11, 2020, 4:27 PM

43 points

21 comments4 min readLW link

Twenty basic rules for intelligent money management

James_MillerMar 19, 2015, 5:57 PM

54 points

55 comments9 min readLW link

Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t

Eliezer YudkowskyJun 22, 2007, 10:30 PM

23 points

40 comments2 min readLW link

Helping loved ones with their finances: the why and how of an unusually impactful opportunity

Sam AnschellMay 21, 2024, 6:48 PM

0 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Truth Terminal: A reconstruction of events

crvr.fr and MTorrents

Nov 17, 2024, 11:51 PM

3 points

1 comment7 min readLW link

Repeat Until Broke

gilchAug 13, 2020, 7:19 AM

14 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

No, the Polymarket price does not mean we can immediately conclude what the probability of a bird flu pandemic is. We also need to know the interest rate!

Christopher KingDec 28, 2024, 4:05 PM

5 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

The Wrong Side of Risk

gilchAug 16, 2020, 3:50 AM

22 points

12 comments3 min readLW link

Finance Followups

Jacob FalkovichJan 17, 2019, 5:54 PM

26 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

I Am not a Tax Lawyer

Jacob FalkovichDec 24, 2017, 3:20 AM

12 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(putanumonit.com)

Are long-term investments a good way to help the future?

DacynApr 30, 2018, 2:41 PM

10 points

50 comments3 min readLW link

Patterns or getting to Objective Truth – A thought piece on Artificial Intelligence

Thehumanproject.aiOct 20, 2024, 4:45 PM

1 point

0 comments8 min readLW link

Patterns or getting to Objective Truth – A thought piece on Artificial Intelligence

Thehumanproject.aiOct 20, 2024, 4:45 PM

1 point

0 comments8 min readLW link

milo’s Shortform

miloJan 24, 2022, 3:36 PM

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Alpha

Erich_GrunewaldJul 1, 2023, 4:05 PM

65 points

2 comments14 min readLW link

(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Risk is not empirically correlated with return

jsalvatierNov 22, 2010, 5:31 AM

11 points

28 comments2 min readLW link

“Risk” means surprise

PhilGoetzMay 22, 2015, 4:47 AM

12 points

29 comments2 min readLW link

Notes from the Qatar Center for Global Banking and Finance 3rd Annual Conference

PixelatedPenguinJul 7, 2023, 11:48 PM

2 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Case Story: Lack of Consumer Protection Procedures AI Manipulation and the Threat of Fund Concentration in Crypto Seeking Assistance to Fund a Civil Case to Establish Facts and Protect Vulnerable Consumers from Damage Caused by Automated Systems

Petr 'Margot' AndreevAug 8, 2024, 5:55 AM

−9 points

0 comments9 min readLW link

Kelly Bet on Everything

Jacob FalkovichJul 10, 2020, 2:48 AM

101 points

20 comments5 min readLW link 2 reviews

The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster

Thomas KwaSep 1, 2020, 9:41 PM

43 points

44 comments6 min readLW link

No comments.

Fi­nan­cial Investing

Financial Investing