Worth adding that the ability to work hard and delay gratification is a privilege, Self-control seems to be 60%[1] heritable (and let’s not forget that people also don’t choose in which environment they grow up which probably accounts for the other 40%)
In a way, it’s privilege all the way down.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149763418307905
Why is it better to wake up at 3 am compared to 6 or 7 am?
There is research that claims that suffering might serve as an honest signal to get help from your group and that humans suffer more than other animals due to this reason.
you might have taught your system 1 that emotional suffering is useless for signaling purposes and it stopped using it.
If it’s true it could be an extremely impactful and even groundbreaking intervention.
Interesting post, would love to hear your opinion about my suggested alternative to EMH, I don’t see anything in your post that contradicts it. But i’m having a very hard time accepting the idea that you can’t beat the market using public data and infinite amount of computing power.
here’s a climate map of Iran. Kind of hard to draw conclusion tbh.
I didn’t know about it. Large spread in Indonesia definitely weakens the climate theory.
Both some German cities and New York are listed as potential cities to be under increased risk soon (see the last image at the post) - they actually have pretty similar temperature/humidity profile.
The potential confounders you listed are also relevant to very cold places (northern Europe/Canada) and it seems they are currently less affected.
I agree with the objection regarding Seattle. But I don’t think that a situation as bad as in Iran or Italy would go under the radar, the hospitals there are flooded with COVID patients that show the same symptoms over and over and even in the extremely censored China this kind of information eventually leaked.
Spain is only x2 compared to the US right now and this could easily be explained by under testing and proximity to Italy.
Why Iran and Italy and not Thailand and the Philipines?
Strong form doesn’t mean that the prices are “always right” the idea of strong form EMH is that the prices also already incorporate private information (meaning you can’t get alpha even if you had insider information) compared to Semi-strong that claims that the markets don’t account for private information.
The definition of EMH (from wikipedia) is:
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to “beat the market” consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.
There was no straw man, I have specifically reflected on this definition.
Good to hear, appreciate the comment.
EMH actually claims that sitting down with a blank sheet of paper and gaining an information advantage is impossible, the market prices already incorporated all the public data. I agree that this assumption seems wrong (and the goal of my post was to provide an alternative assumption)
This approach reminds me of the six-sigma manufacturing philosophy which was very successful and impactful in improving manufactured products quality.