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Anthropics

TagLast edit: 12 Feb 2021 9:37 UTC by Yoav Ravid

Anthropics is the study of how the fact that we succeed in making observations of a given kind at all gives us evidence about the world we are living, independently of the content of the observations. As an example, for living beings, making any observations at all is only possible in a universe with physical laws that support life.

Related Pages: Sleeping Beauty Paradox, Filtered Evidence, Great Filter

0th Per­son and 1st Per­son Logic

Adele Lopez10 Mar 2024 0:56 UTC
60 points
28 comments6 min readLW link

The Mir­ror Cham­ber: A short story ex­plor­ing the an­thropic mea­sure func­tion and why it can matter

mako yass3 Nov 2022 6:47 UTC
30 points
13 comments10 min readLW link

Why am I Me?

dadadarren25 Jun 2023 12:07 UTC
45 points
46 comments3 min readLW link

We need a the­ory of an­thropic mea­sure binding

mako yass30 Dec 2021 7:22 UTC
27 points
42 comments5 min readLW link

The First Per­son And The Phys­i­cal Person

dadadarren10 Jan 2022 19:47 UTC
23 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cally Blind: the an­thropic shadow is re­flec­tively inconsistent

Christopher King29 Jun 2023 2:36 UTC
43 points
40 comments10 min readLW link

The Hero With A Thou­sand Chances

Eliezer Yudkowsky31 Jul 2009 4:25 UTC
167 points
170 comments9 min readLW link

The First-Per­son Per­spec­tive Is Not A Ran­dom Sample

dadadarren7 Mar 2022 16:31 UTC
44 points
27 comments5 min readLW link

Tor­ture vs. Dust vs. the Pre­sump­tu­ous Philoso­pher: An­thropic Rea­son­ing in UDT

Wei Dai3 Sep 2009 23:04 UTC
37 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

Prim­i­tive Per­spec­tives and Sleep­ing Beauty

dadadarren26 Mar 2022 1:55 UTC
21 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

Full Non-In­dex­i­cal Con­di­tion­ing Also As­sumes A Self Sam­pling Pro­cess.

dadadarren12 Feb 2022 1:46 UTC
17 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Which Ques­tions Are An­thropic Ques­tions?

dadadarren31 Aug 2023 15:15 UTC
16 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Agree­ment on anthropics

KatjaGrace10 Mar 2011 4:38 UTC
4 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

An­thropic an­swers to log­i­cal un­cer­tain­ties?

Roko6 Apr 2010 17:51 UTC
16 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

An­throp­ics makes sense with shorter people

KatjaGrace11 Apr 2011 22:58 UTC
46 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

Repli­cat­ing and ex­tend­ing the grabby aliens model

Tristan Cook23 Apr 2022 0:38 UTC
76 points
20 comments51 min readLW link

“Which Fu­ture Mind is Me?” Is a Ques­tion of Values

dadadarren9 Aug 2024 18:17 UTC
17 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

Quan­tum Im­mor­tal­ity: A Per­spec­tive if AI Doomers are Prob­a­bly Right

7 Nov 2024 16:06 UTC
7 points
41 comments14 min readLW link

A Sim­plified Ver­sion of Per­spec­tive Solu­tion to the Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

dadadarren31 Dec 2020 18:27 UTC
9 points
39 comments5 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

The Si­mu­la­tion Hy­poth­e­sis Un­der­cuts the SIA/​Great Filter Dooms­day Argument

1 Oct 2021 22:23 UTC
43 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

The Val­idity of Self-Lo­cat­ing Probabilities

dadadarren21 Aug 2021 2:53 UTC
8 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cal Para­doxes are Para­doxes of Prob­a­bil­ity Theory

Ape in the coat6 Dec 2023 8:16 UTC
52 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty, Clon­ing Beauty, and Fre­quen­tist Ar­gu­ments In An­thropic Paradoxes

dadadarren9 Nov 2020 23:17 UTC
5 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

The Pre­sump­tu­ous Philoso­pher, self-lo­cat­ing in­for­ma­tion, and Solomonoff induction

Charlie Steiner31 May 2020 16:35 UTC
58 points
28 comments3 min readLW link

Les­lie’s Firing Squad Can’t Save The Fine-Tun­ing Argument

dadadarren9 Sep 2020 15:21 UTC
11 points
6 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Puz­zles for Physicalists

jessicata12 Mar 2020 1:37 UTC
46 points
15 comments9 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Ab­sent-Minded Driver and Self-Lo­cat­ing Probabilities

dadadarren14 Aug 2021 0:09 UTC
12 points
16 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

An­throp­ics and Embed­ded Agency

dadadarren26 Jun 2021 1:45 UTC
7 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The Mo­ral Sta­tus of In­de­pen­dent Iden­ti­cal Copies

Wei Dai30 Nov 2009 23:41 UTC
63 points
80 comments2 min readLW link

An­thropic Rea­son­ing and Per­spec­tive-Based Ar­gu­ments

dadadarren1 Sep 2020 12:36 UTC
28 points
59 comments2 min readLW link

Should VS Would and New­comb’s Paradox

dadadarren3 Jul 2021 23:45 UTC
5 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

Hello or­di­nary folks, I’m the Cho­sen One

dadadarren4 Sep 2020 19:59 UTC
31 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

An In­tro to An­thropic Rea­son­ing us­ing the ‘Boy or Girl Para­dox’ as a toy example

TobyC23 Apr 2023 10:20 UTC
30 points
28 comments19 min readLW link

An­thropic Para­doxes and Self Refer­ence

dadadarren6 Jun 2021 2:52 UTC
6 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Per­spec­tive Based Rea­son­ing Could Ab­solve CDT

dadadarren8 Oct 2023 11:22 UTC
4 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

“Who I am” is an ax­iom.

dadadarren25 Apr 2021 21:59 UTC
7 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Sny­der-Beat­tie, Sand­berg, Drexler & Bon­sall (2020): The Timing of Evolu­tion­ary Tran­si­tions Suggests In­tel­li­gent Life Is Rare

Kaj_Sotala24 Nov 2020 10:36 UTC
83 points
20 comments2 min readLW link
(www.liebertpub.com)

The An­thropic Prin­ci­ple: Five Short Examples

Optimization Process26 Sep 2017 22:35 UTC
60 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

UDT can learn an­thropic probabilities

cousin_it24 Jun 2018 18:04 UTC
54 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic sig­na­ture: strange anti-correlations

Stuart_Armstrong21 Oct 2014 16:59 UTC
86 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

The An­thropic Trilemma

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Sep 2009 1:47 UTC
69 points
232 comments6 min readLW link

On the An­thropic Trilemma

KatjaGrace19 May 2011 15:57 UTC
54 points
50 comments9 min readLW link

An­thropic effects im­ply that we are more likely to live in the uni­verse with in­ter­stel­lar panspermia

avturchin10 Mar 2020 13:12 UTC
19 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

No An­thropic Evidence

Vladimir_Nesov23 Sep 2012 10:33 UTC
21 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

The ran­dom­ness/​ig­no­rance model solves many an­thropic problems

Rafael Harth11 Nov 2019 17:02 UTC
9 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are some of bizarre the­o­ries based on an­thropic rea­son­ing?

Dr. Jamchie3 Feb 2019 18:48 UTC
21 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Treat­ing an­thropic self­ish prefer­ences as an ex­ten­sion of TDT

Manfred1 Jan 2015 0:43 UTC
13 points
16 comments11 min readLW link

An­throp­ics over-sim­plified: it’s about pri­ors, not updates

Stuart_Armstrong2 Mar 2020 13:45 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Up­date­less anthropics

Stuart_Armstrong20 Feb 2011 19:23 UTC
13 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

An­thropic de­ci­sion the­ory for self­ish agents

Beluga21 Oct 2014 15:56 UTC
12 points
37 comments6 min readLW link

2 An­thropic Questions

abramdemski26 May 2012 22:51 UTC
15 points
31 comments2 min readLW link

An em­piri­cal test of an­thropic prin­ci­ple /​ great filter reasoning

James_Miller24 Mar 2010 18:44 UTC
13 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

Publi­ca­tion of “An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory”

Stuart_Armstrong20 Sep 2017 15:41 UTC
12 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] Gen­eral-au­di­ence doc­u­men­tary on cos­mol­ogy, an­throp­ics, and superintelligence

Academian11 Jan 2013 5:11 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Three easy an­thropic mod­els, and two hard ones

Stuart_Armstrong26 Jan 2011 10:41 UTC
14 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Re­ply to Stu­art on anthropics

cousin_it31 Jan 2011 7:06 UTC
8 points
32 comments1 min readLW link

Frag­ile Uni­verse Hy­poth­e­sis and the Con­tinual An­thropic Prin­ci­ple—How crazy am I?

PeterCoin18 Aug 2015 0:53 UTC
10 points
32 comments7 min readLW link

An­throp­ics doesn’t ex­plain why the Cold War stayed Cold

KnaveOfAllTrades20 Aug 2014 19:23 UTC
12 points
34 comments8 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory II: Self-Indi­ca­tion, Self-Sam­pling and decisions

Stuart_Armstrong2 Nov 2011 10:03 UTC
14 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic rea­son­ing and cor­re­lated de­ci­sion making

Stuart_Armstrong23 Sep 2009 15:10 UTC
9 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty: Is Disagree­ment While Shar­ing All In­for­ma­tion Pos­si­ble in An­thropic Prob­lems?

dadadarren1 Aug 2019 20:10 UTC
7 points
32 comments10 min readLW link

[Link] Physics-based an­throp­ics?

Brian_Tomasik14 Nov 2014 7:02 UTC
8 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

The Dooms­day ar­gu­ment in an­thropic de­ci­sion theory

Stuart_Armstrong31 Aug 2017 13:44 UTC
11 points
58 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic un­cer­tainty in the Ev­i­den­tial Black­mail problem

Johannes Treutlein14 May 2017 16:43 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(casparoesterheld.com)

An­thropic Rea­son­ing by CDT in New­comb’s Problem

gRR14 Mar 2012 0:44 UTC
9 points
36 comments1 min readLW link

Re­vis­it­ing the An­thropic Trilemma II: ax­ioms and assumptions

Stuart_Armstrong16 Feb 2011 9:42 UTC
9 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

Papers fram­ing an­thropic ques­tions as de­ci­sion prob­lems?

jsalvatier26 Apr 2012 0:40 UTC
6 points
36 comments1 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory VI: Ap­ply­ing ADT to com­mon an­thropic problems

Stuart_Armstrong6 Nov 2011 11:50 UTC
8 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory III: Solv­ing Selfless and To­tal Utili­tar­ian Sleep­ing Beauty

Stuart_Armstrong3 Nov 2011 10:04 UTC
9 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Re­vis­ing pri­ors and an­thropic reasoning

PhilGoetz6 Feb 2011 5:42 UTC
3 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

Dooms­day ar­gu­ment for An­thropic De­ci­sion Theory

Stuart_Armstrong9 Sep 2015 12:37 UTC
6 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Re­vis­it­ing the an­thropic trilemma III: solu­tions and interpretations

Stuart_Armstrong17 Feb 2011 15:14 UTC
6 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

An­thropic prin­ci­ples agree on big­ger fu­ture filters

XiXiDu2 Nov 2010 10:14 UTC
3 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem, An­thropic Prin­ci­ple and Per­spec­tive Reasoning

dadadarren9 Mar 2019 15:21 UTC
5 points
22 comments8 min readLW link

The Val­idity of the An­thropic Principle

casebash23 Apr 2016 9:12 UTC
2 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

[SEQ RERUN] Real-Life An­thropic Weirdness

MinibearRex12 Apr 2013 5:33 UTC
4 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory V: Link­ing and ADT

Stuart_Armstrong5 Nov 2011 13:31 UTC
6 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

[COMIC] An­thropic dun­geon crawling

jsalvatier14 Feb 2011 15:30 UTC
3 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Sim­plified An­thropic Doomsday

Stuart_Armstrong2 Sep 2017 20:37 UTC
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

An­thropic summary

KatjaGrace27 Apr 2010 17:35 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

More an­thropic warn­ings at H+

KatjaGrace13 May 2011 2:02 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Per­son mo­ments make sense of anthropics

KatjaGrace11 Apr 2011 2:57 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

The Dooms­day ar­gu­ment in an­thropic de­ci­sion theory

Stuart_Armstrong31 Aug 2017 13:20 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory IV: Solv­ing Selfish and Aver­age-Utili­tar­ian Sleep­ing Beauty

Stuart_Armstrong4 Nov 2011 10:55 UTC
3 points
24 comments4 min readLW link

Re­vis­it­ing the an­thropic trilemma I: in­tu­itions and contradictions

Stuart_Armstrong15 Feb 2011 11:18 UTC
3 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Katja Grace’s An­thropic Rea­son­ing in the Great Filter

Larks4 Nov 2010 10:47 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A new (?) an­thropic prin­ci­ple, and mo­ti­va­tion thereof

BrianNachbar17 Feb 2012 20:47 UTC
0 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Boltz­mann Brains and An­thropic Refer­ence Classes (Up­dated)

pragmatist4 Jun 2012 4:04 UTC
−7 points
113 comments4 min readLW link

SSA re­jects an­thropic shadow, too

jessicata27 Jul 2023 17:25 UTC
74 points
38 comments11 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Where Physics Meets Experience

Eliezer Yudkowsky25 Apr 2008 4:58 UTC
73 points
38 comments11 min readLW link

The Ab­sent-Minded Driver

Wei Dai16 Sep 2009 0:51 UTC
46 points
150 comments3 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and Bi­ased Models

casebash15 Apr 2016 2:18 UTC
6 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

The Per­spec­tive-based Ex­pla­na­tion to the Reflec­tive In­con­sis­tency Paradox

dadadarren26 Jan 2024 19:00 UTC
10 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

The Closed Eyes Ar­gu­ment For Third­ing

omnizoid31 Mar 2024 22:11 UTC
1 point
22 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Should you re­fuse this bet in Tech­ni­color Sleep­ing Beauty?

Ape in the coat4 Apr 2024 8:55 UTC
16 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Beauty and the Bets

Ape in the coat27 Mar 2024 6:17 UTC
7 points
31 comments12 min readLW link

Why Two Valid An­swers Ap­proach is not Enough for Sleep­ing Beauty

Ape in the coat6 Feb 2024 14:21 UTC
6 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one ac­tu­ally changed their mind re­gard­ing Sleep­ing Beauty prob­lem?

Ape in the coat30 Jan 2024 8:34 UTC
14 points
50 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Adam Elga’s proof for thirdism in Sleep­ing Beauty still con­sid­ered to be sound?

Ape in the coat16 Jul 2023 14:11 UTC
8 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

When is a mind me?

Rob Bensinger17 Apr 2024 5:56 UTC
135 points
125 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] Is there any rigor­ous work on us­ing an­thropic un­cer­tainty to pre­vent situ­a­tional aware­ness /​ de­cep­tion?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)4 Sep 2024 12:40 UTC
17 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Datasets that change the odds you exist

dynomight29 Jun 2024 18:45 UTC
55 points
4 comments6 min readLW link
(dynomight.net)

Dooms­day Ar­gu­ment and the False Dilemma of An­thropic Reasoning

Ape in the coat5 Jul 2024 5:38 UTC
35 points
55 comments7 min readLW link

Rel­a­tivity The­ory for What the Fu­ture ‘You’ Is and Isn’t

FlorianH29 Jul 2024 2:01 UTC
7 points
48 comments4 min readLW link

A com­pu­ta­tional com­plex­ity ar­gu­ment for many worlds

jessicata13 Aug 2024 19:35 UTC
32 points
15 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Reflec­tive AIXI and Anthropics

Diffractor24 Sep 2018 2:15 UTC
18 points
14 comments8 min readLW link

An­thropic rea­son­ing isn’t magic

Stuart_Armstrong1 Nov 2017 8:57 UTC
22 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

An­throp­ics made easy?

Stuart_Armstrong14 Jun 2018 0:56 UTC
32 points
61 comments6 min readLW link

An­throp­ics is pretty normal

Stuart_Armstrong17 Jan 2019 13:26 UTC
39 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and Fermi

Stuart_Armstrong20 Jun 2018 13:04 UTC
26 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

Out­law­ing An­throp­ics: An Up­date­less Dilemma

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 Sep 2009 18:31 UTC
37 points
210 comments4 min readLW link

Forc­ing An­throp­ics: Boltz­mann Brains

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 Sep 2009 19:02 UTC
37 points
72 comments5 min readLW link

Quan­tify­ing an­thropic effects on the Fermi paradox

Lukas Finnveden15 Feb 2019 10:51 UTC
29 points
5 comments27 min readLW link

Real-Life An­thropic Weirdness

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Apr 2009 22:26 UTC
33 points
90 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Would solv­ing log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als solve an­throp­ics?

Chris_Leong5 Apr 2019 11:08 UTC
20 points
52 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics: Full Non-in­dex­i­cal Con­di­tion­ing (FNC) is inconsistent

Stuart_Armstrong14 Jan 2019 15:03 UTC
30 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Para­doxes in all an­thropic probabilities

Stuart_Armstrong19 Jun 2018 15:31 UTC
22 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic Atheism

[deleted]13 Jan 2014 5:00 UTC
34 points
54 comments5 min readLW link

An­thropic prob­a­bil­ities: an­swer­ing differ­ent questions

Stuart_Armstrong14 Jan 2019 18:50 UTC
21 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The ques­tions and classes of SSA

Stuart_Armstrong17 Jan 2019 11:50 UTC
12 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Caught in the glare of two an­thropic shadows

Stuart_Armstrong4 Jul 2013 19:54 UTC
29 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Why (an­thropic) prob­a­bil­ity isn’t enough

Stuart_Armstrong13 Dec 2012 16:09 UTC
33 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Fun­da­men­tals of kick­ing an­thropic butt

Manfred26 Mar 2012 6:43 UTC
25 points
60 comments10 min readLW link

What the Uni­verse Wants: An­throp­ics from the POV of Self-Replication

moridinamael12 Jan 2018 19:03 UTC
9 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

An­throp­ics: Where does Less Wrong lie?

Chris_Leong22 Jun 2018 10:27 UTC
15 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

An­thropic para­doxes trans­posed into An­thropic De­ci­sion Theory

Stuart_Armstrong19 Dec 2018 18:07 UTC
18 points
23 comments4 min readLW link

An­thropic prob­a­bil­ities and cost functions

Stuart_Armstrong21 Dec 2018 17:54 UTC
16 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

SUDT: A toy de­ci­sion the­ory for up­date­less anthropics

Benya23 Feb 2014 23:50 UTC
27 points
14 comments8 min readLW link

An­throp­ics in a Teg­mark Multiverse

paulfchristiano2 Apr 2011 18:34 UTC
20 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

[Link]: An­thropic shadow, or the dark dusk of disaster

Stuart_Armstrong4 Jul 2013 19:52 UTC
20 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics: A Short Note on the Fis­sion Riddle

Chris_Leong28 Jul 2018 4:14 UTC
11 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

An­thropic de­ci­sion the­ory I: Sleep­ing beauty and selflessness

Stuart_Armstrong1 Nov 2011 11:41 UTC
22 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

Physics has laws, the Uni­verse might not

Shmi9 Jun 2018 5:33 UTC
25 points
23 comments3 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cal Motte and Bailey in two ver­sions of Sleep­ing Beauty

Ape in the coat2 Aug 2023 7:08 UTC
32 points
56 comments6 min readLW link

For The Peo­ple Who Are Still Alive

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Dec 2008 17:13 UTC
45 points
72 comments4 min readLW link

Selfish prefer­ences and self-modification

Manfred14 Jan 2015 8:42 UTC
12 points
24 comments2 min readLW link

How many peo­ple am I?

Manfred15 Dec 2014 18:11 UTC
7 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

Deriv­ing prob­a­bil­ities from causal diagrams

Manfred13 Nov 2014 0:28 UTC
10 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Boltz­mann Brains and Within-model vs. Between-mod­els Probability

Charlie Steiner14 Jul 2018 9:52 UTC
15 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

The An­thropic Prin­ci­ple Tells Us That AGI Will Not Be Conscious

nem28 Aug 2023 15:25 UTC
−4 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

The AI in a box boxes you

Stuart_Armstrong2 Feb 2010 10:10 UTC
170 points
389 comments1 min readLW link

An­thropic Effects in Es­ti­mat­ing Evolu­tion Difficulty

Mark Xu5 Jul 2021 4:02 UTC
12 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Are co­in­ci­dences clues about missed dis­asters? It de­pends on your an­swer to the Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem.

Harlan5 Jul 2021 19:12 UTC
32 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Prac­ti­cal an­throp­ics summary

Stuart_Armstrong8 Jul 2021 15:10 UTC
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and Fermi: grabby, visi­ble, zoo-keep­ing, and early aliens

Stuart_Armstrong8 Jul 2021 15:07 UTC
15 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 2: Telekine­sis, refer­ence classes, and other scandals

Joe Carlsmith1 Oct 2021 5:49 UTC
21 points
2 comments35 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 3: An aside on bet­ting in anthropics

Joe Carlsmith1 Oct 2021 5:52 UTC
17 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 4: In defense of the pre­sump­tu­ous philosopher

Joe Carlsmith1 Oct 2021 5:59 UTC
13 points
20 comments22 min readLW link

On the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe Carlsmith29 Oct 2021 17:50 UTC
35 points
4 comments32 min readLW link

Each refer­ence class has its own end

avturchin2 Jan 2022 15:59 UTC
8 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe Carlsmith28 Nov 2021 20:35 UTC
52 points
9 comments47 min readLW link

[Question] Is Grabby Aliens built on good an­thropic rea­son­ing?

Steven Byrnes17 Mar 2022 14:12 UTC
39 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Our time in his­tory as ev­i­dence for simu­la­tion the­ory?

Garrett Garzonie18 Mar 2022 3:35 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The dooms­day ar­gu­ment is normal

avturchin3 Apr 2022 15:17 UTC
6 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

Why are we so early?

Flaglandbase4 Apr 2022 8:49 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Choice := An­throp­ics un­cer­tainty? And po­ten­tial im­pli­ca­tions for agency

Antoine de Scorraille21 Apr 2022 16:38 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Con­sis­tency Mystery

Flaglandbase23 Apr 2022 8:05 UTC
−2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Why don’t we think we’re in the sim­plest uni­verse with in­tel­li­gent life?

ADifferentAnonymous18 Jun 2022 3:05 UTC
30 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

The table of differ­ent sam­pling as­sump­tions in anthropics

avturchin29 Jun 2022 10:41 UTC
39 points
5 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] How does an­thropic rea­son­ing and illu­sion­ism/​elimini­tivism in­ter­act?

Shiroe5 Oct 2022 22:31 UTC
5 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Quan­tum Suicide and Au­mann’s Agree­ment Theorem

Isaac King27 Oct 2022 1:32 UTC
14 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

UDASSA

Jacob Falkovich6 Jan 2023 1:07 UTC
21 points
8 comments10 min readLW link

Top YouTube chan­nel Ver­i­ta­sium re­leases video on Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

Alex_Altair11 Feb 2023 20:36 UTC
25 points
22 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

A Stranger Pri­or­ity? Topics at the Outer Reaches of Effec­tive Altru­ism (my dis­ser­ta­tion)

Joe Carlsmith21 Feb 2023 17:26 UTC
38 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

Avoid­ing dooms­day: a “proof” of the self-in­di­ca­tion assumption

Stuart_Armstrong23 Sep 2009 14:54 UTC
26 points
238 comments3 min readLW link

Why I Pre­fer the Copen­hagen In­ter­pre­ta­tion(s)

dadadarren31 Oct 2020 21:06 UTC
5 points
44 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Shock Level 5: Big Wor­lds and Mo­dal Realism

Roko25 May 2010 23:19 UTC
39 points
158 comments4 min readLW link

Re­s­ur­rec­tion of the dead via mul­ti­verse-wide acausual cooperation

avturchin3 Sep 2018 11:21 UTC
24 points
30 comments7 min readLW link

MWI, copies and probability

Roko25 Jun 2010 16:46 UTC
19 points
162 comments3 min readLW link

It’s not like any­thing to be a bat

Scott Alexander27 Mar 2010 14:32 UTC
22 points
192 comments2 min readLW link

In SIA, refer­ence classes (al­most) don’t matter

Stuart_Armstrong17 Jan 2019 11:29 UTC
19 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] A thought experiment

sisyphus10 Dec 2022 5:23 UTC
3 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

If a tree falls on Sleep­ing Beauty...

ata12 Nov 2010 1:14 UTC
145 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

De­stroy­ing the fabric of the uni­verse as an in­stru­men­tal goal.

AI-doom14 Sep 2023 20:04 UTC
−7 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Dy­ing in Many Worlds

Ghatanathoah21 Dec 2012 11:48 UTC
25 points
40 comments5 min readLW link

Does “Ul­ti­mate Neart­er­mism” via Eter­nal In­fla­tion dom­i­nate Longter­mism in ex­pec­ta­tion?

Jordan Arel17 Aug 2024 22:28 UTC
6 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

UDT shows that de­ci­sion the­ory is more puz­zling than ever

Wei Dai13 Sep 2023 12:26 UTC
203 points
55 comments1 min readLW link

An­trop­i­cal Prob­a­bil­ities Are Fully Ex­plained by Differ­ence in Pos­si­ble Outcomes

Ape in the coat9 Nov 2023 15:34 UTC
17 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] A short talk on SB and friends

Jon Zero29 Nov 2020 21:07 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Which Anaes­thetic To Choose?

dadadarren14 Oct 2023 14:55 UTC
10 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Out-of-body rea­son­ing (OOBR)

Jon Zero9 Jan 2021 16:10 UTC
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

An An­tropic Ar­gu­ment for Post-sin­gu­lar­ity Antinatalism

monkaap16 Mar 2021 17:40 UTC
1 point
4 comments3 min readLW link

Learn­ing Rus­sian Roulette

Bunthut2 Apr 2021 18:56 UTC
24 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

Disen­tan­gling four mo­ti­va­tions for act­ing in ac­cor­dance with UDT

Julian Stastny5 Nov 2023 21:26 UTC
33 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

An­throp­ics: differ­ent prob­a­bil­ities, differ­ent questions

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2021 13:14 UTC
25 points
10 comments15 min readLW link

Say­ing the quiet part out loud: trad­ing off x-risk for per­sonal immortality

disturbance2 Nov 2023 17:43 UTC
83 points
89 comments5 min readLW link

Dooms­day, Sam­pling As­sump­tions, and Bayes

Yair Halberstadt14 Jun 2021 12:41 UTC
6 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

AI Safety via Luck

Jozdien1 Apr 2023 20:13 UTC
81 points
7 comments11 min readLW link

Prefer­ence For (Many) Fu­ture Worlds

wedrifid15 Jul 2011 23:31 UTC
31 points
37 comments5 min readLW link

In defense of an­throp­i­cally up­dat­ing EDT

Anthony DiGiovanni5 Mar 2024 6:21 UTC
18 points
17 comments13 min readLW link

all claw, no world — and other thoughts on the uni­ver­sal distribution

Tamsin Leake14 Dec 2022 18:55 UTC
15 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

The SIA pop­u­la­tion up­date can be sur­pris­ingly small

Stuart_Armstrong8 Jul 2021 10:45 UTC
48 points
12 comments10 min readLW link

An­throp­ics in in­finite universes

Stuart_Armstrong8 Jul 2021 6:56 UTC
13 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Un­typ­i­cal SIA

avturchin8 Jun 2022 14:23 UTC
5 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

An­thropic de­ci­sion the­ory for self-lo­cat­ing beliefs

Stuart_Armstrong12 Jul 2021 14:11 UTC
17 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Why don’t peo­ple talk about the Dooms­day Ar­gu­ment more of­ten?

sam31 Mar 2023 17:52 UTC
−1 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The Val­idity of Self-Lo­cat­ing Prob­a­bil­ities (Pt. 2)

dadadarren25 Aug 2021 1:53 UTC
6 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

in­dex­i­cal un­cer­tainty and the Ax­iom of Independence

Wei Dai7 Jun 2009 9:18 UTC
26 points
79 comments3 min readLW link

the quan­tum am­pli­tude ar­gu­ment against ethics deduplication

Tamsin Leake12 Mar 2023 13:02 UTC
11 points
16 comments2 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

Reflec­tive con­sis­tency, ran­dom­ized de­ci­sions, and the dan­gers of un­re­al­is­tic thought experiments

Radford Neal7 Dec 2023 3:33 UTC
34 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

Mis­takes with Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Evidence

abramdemski8 Jun 2019 23:07 UTC
232 points
27 comments12 min readLW link1 review

Cog­ni­tive In­sta­bil­ity, Phys­i­cal­ism, and Free Will

dadadarren16 Jul 2022 13:13 UTC
5 points
27 comments2 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

SIA > SSA, part 1: Learn­ing from the fact that you exist

Joe Carlsmith1 Oct 2021 5:43 UTC
46 points
16 comments16 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness, Free Will and Scien­tific Ob­jec­tivity in Per­spec­tive-Based Reasoning

dadadarren14 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
7 points
25 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

False vac­uum: the uni­verse play­ing quan­tum suicide

Stuart_Armstrong9 Jan 2013 17:04 UTC
26 points
49 comments2 min readLW link

Don’t Use the “God’s-Eye View” in An­thropic Prob­lems.

dadadarren26 Oct 2021 13:47 UTC
6 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

X-Risk, An­throp­ics, & Peter Thiel’s In­vest­ment Thesis

Jackson Wagner26 Oct 2021 18:50 UTC
21 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

Bet­ter and Worse Ways of Stat­ing SIA

dadadarren28 Oct 2021 16:04 UTC
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

ethics and an­throp­ics of ho­mo­mor­phi­cally en­crypted computations

Tamsin Leake9 Sep 2022 10:49 UTC
47 points
49 comments3 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

You Don’t Need An­throp­ics To Do Science

dadadarren7 Nov 2021 15:07 UTC
6 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

[Question] Nu­clear war anthropics

smountjoy12 Dec 2021 4:54 UTC
11 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

A Pin and a Bal­loon: An­thropic Frag­ility In­creases Chances of Ru­n­away Global Warm­ing

avturchin11 Sep 2022 10:25 UTC
33 points
23 comments52 min readLW link

Les­sons from Failed At­tempts to Model Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

Ape in the coat20 Feb 2024 6:43 UTC
13 points
16 comments14 min readLW link

Keep­ing it (less than) real: Against ℶ₂ pos­si­ble peo­ple or worlds

quiet_NaN13 Sep 2024 17:29 UTC
9 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

The I-Less Eye

rwallace28 Mar 2010 18:13 UTC
44 points
91 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] A way to beat su­per­ra­tional/​EDT agents?

Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir17 Aug 2020 14:33 UTC
5 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

L-zom­bies! (L-zom­bies?)

Benya7 Feb 2014 18:30 UTC
52 points
74 comments7 min readLW link

SIA be­comes SSA in the multiverse

avturchin1 Feb 2022 11:31 UTC
7 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

Snake Eyes Paradox

Martin Randall11 Jun 2023 4:10 UTC
22 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

Du­pli­ca­tion ver­sus probability

Stuart_Armstrong20 Jun 2018 12:18 UTC
27 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty Re­solved (?) Pt. 2: Iden­tity and Betting

ksvanhorn2 Jun 2018 2:43 UTC
9 points
50 comments6 min readLW link

“Solv­ing” self­ish­ness for UDT

Stuart_Armstrong27 Oct 2014 17:51 UTC
39 points
52 comments8 min readLW link

How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Sep 2008 21:38 UTC
36 points
140 comments1 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty Re­solved?

ksvanhorn22 May 2018 14:13 UTC
16 points
77 comments10 min readLW link

How Many of Me Are There?

Eneasz15 Apr 2011 19:00 UTC
17 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Three Dialogues on Identity

Eliezer Yudkowsky21 Apr 2008 6:13 UTC
61 points
50 comments6 min readLW link

Where Ex­pe­rience Con­fuses Physicists

Eliezer Yudkowsky26 Apr 2008 5:05 UTC
41 points
30 comments8 min readLW link

I no­tice that I am con­fused about Iden­tity and Resurrection

ialdabaoth14 Nov 2013 20:38 UTC
65 points
80 comments6 min readLW link

SSA vs. SIA: how fu­ture pop­u­la­tion may provide ev­i­dence for or against the foun­da­tions of poli­ti­cal liberalism

j30 Jul 2023 20:18 UTC
−6 points
10 comments55 min readLW link

Break­ing the SIA with an ex­po­nen­tially-Sleep­ing Beauty

0naut20 Feb 2022 8:03 UTC
8 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Not Even Evidence

Dach6 Oct 2020 1:20 UTC
6 points
15 comments8 min readLW link

Learn­ing as you play: an­thropic shadow in deadly games

dr_s12 Aug 2023 7:34 UTC
37 points
28 comments35 min readLW link

Another Non-An­thropic Para­dox: The Un­sur­pris­ing Rare­ness of Rare Events

Ape in the coat21 Jan 2024 15:58 UTC
18 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

Life, Death, and Fi­nance in the Cos­mic Mul­ti­verse

peterb16 Oct 2022 18:57 UTC
2 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Some Var­i­ants of Sleep­ing Beauty

1 Mar 2023 16:51 UTC
34 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

The Solu­tion to Sleep­ing Beauty

Ape in the coat4 Mar 2024 6:46 UTC
8 points
77 comments13 min readLW link

The Ab­solute Self-Selec­tion Assumption

paulfchristiano11 Apr 2011 15:25 UTC
96 points
44 comments7 min readLW link

Why math­e­mat­ics works

Douglas_Reay8 Mar 2018 18:00 UTC
7 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

The Evil Ge­nie Puzzle

Chris_Leong25 Jul 2018 6:12 UTC
19 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Fur­ther con­sid­er­a­tions on the Ev­i­den­tial­ist’s Wager

Martín Soto3 Nov 2022 20:06 UTC
3 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

New­comb Variant

lsusr29 Aug 2023 7:02 UTC
25 points
22 comments1 min readLW link

Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Ev­i­dence and Ran­dom Sam­pling in Anthropics

Ape in the coat3 Sep 2023 6:55 UTC
9 points
9 comments7 min readLW link
No comments.