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Anthropics

TagLast edit: Feb 12, 2021, 9:37 AM by Yoav Ravid

Anthropics is the study of how the fact that we succeed in making observations of a given kind at all gives us evidence about the world we are living, independently of the content of the observations. As an example, for living beings, making any observations at all is only possible in a universe with physical laws that support life.

Related Pages: Sleeping Beauty Paradox, Filtered Evidence, Great Filter

0th Per­son and 1st Per­son Logic

Adele LopezMar 10, 2024, 12:56 AM
60 points
28 comments6 min readLW link

The Mir­ror Cham­ber: A short story ex­plor­ing the an­thropic mea­sure func­tion and why it can matter

mako yassNov 3, 2022, 6:47 AM
30 points
13 comments10 min readLW link

We need a the­ory of an­thropic mea­sure binding

mako yassDec 30, 2021, 7:22 AM
27 points
42 comments5 min readLW link

Why am I Me?

dadadarrenJun 25, 2023, 12:07 PM
45 points
46 comments3 min readLW link

The Hero With A Thou­sand Chances

Eliezer YudkowskyJul 31, 2009, 4:25 AM
169 points
170 comments9 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cally Blind: the an­thropic shadow is re­flec­tively inconsistent

Christopher KingJun 29, 2023, 2:36 AM
43 points
40 comments10 min readLW link

The First Per­son And The Phys­i­cal Person

dadadarrenJan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM
23 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Prim­i­tive Per­spec­tives and Sleep­ing Beauty

dadadarrenMar 26, 2022, 1:55 AM
21 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

Full Non-In­dex­i­cal Con­di­tion­ing Also As­sumes A Self Sam­pling Pro­cess.

dadadarrenFeb 12, 2022, 1:46 AM
17 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

The First-Per­son Per­spec­tive Is Not A Ran­dom Sample

dadadarrenMar 7, 2022, 4:31 PM
44 points
27 comments5 min readLW link

Tor­ture vs. Dust vs. the Pre­sump­tu­ous Philoso­pher: An­thropic Rea­son­ing in UDT

Wei DaiSep 3, 2009, 11:04 PM
37 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty, Clon­ing Beauty, and Fre­quen­tist Ar­gu­ments In An­thropic Paradoxes

dadadarrenNov 9, 2020, 11:17 PM
5 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

The Pre­sump­tu­ous Philoso­pher, self-lo­cat­ing in­for­ma­tion, and Solomonoff induction

Charlie SteinerMay 31, 2020, 4:35 PM
58 points
28 comments3 min readLW link

Les­lie’s Firing Squad Can’t Save The Fine-Tun­ing Argument

dadadarrenSep 9, 2020, 3:21 PM
11 points
6 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Which Ques­tions Are An­thropic Ques­tions?

dadadarrenAug 31, 2023, 3:15 PM
16 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

The An­thropic Prin­ci­ple: Five Short Examples

Optimization ProcessSep 26, 2017, 10:35 PM
60 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

UDT can learn an­thropic probabilities

cousin_itJun 24, 2018, 6:04 PM
54 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic sig­na­ture: strange anti-correlations

Stuart_ArmstrongOct 21, 2014, 4:59 PM
86 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

Agree­ment on anthropics

KatjaGraceMar 10, 2011, 4:38 AM
4 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

An­thropic an­swers to log­i­cal un­cer­tain­ties?

RokoApr 6, 2010, 5:51 PM
16 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

The An­thropic Trilemma

Eliezer YudkowskySep 27, 2009, 1:47 AM
77 points
233 comments6 min readLW link

On the An­thropic Trilemma

KatjaGraceMay 19, 2011, 3:57 PM
54 points
50 comments9 min readLW link

An­throp­ics makes sense with shorter people

KatjaGraceApr 11, 2011, 10:58 PM
46 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

The Si­mu­la­tion Hy­poth­e­sis Un­der­cuts the SIA/​Great Filter Dooms­day Argument

Oct 1, 2021, 10:23 PM
43 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Repli­cat­ing and ex­tend­ing the grabby aliens model

Tristan CookApr 23, 2022, 12:38 AM
80 points
20 comments51 min readLW link

“Which Fu­ture Mind is Me?” Is a Ques­tion of Values

dadadarrenAug 9, 2024, 6:17 PM
17 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cal Para­doxes are Para­doxes of Prob­a­bil­ity Theory

Ape in the coatDec 6, 2023, 8:16 AM
55 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

An­thropic Rea­son­ing and Per­spec­tive-Based Ar­gu­ments

dadadarrenSep 1, 2020, 12:36 PM
28 points
59 comments2 min readLW link

Puz­zles for Physicalists

jessicataMar 12, 2020, 1:37 AM
46 points
15 comments9 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

The Val­idity of Self-Lo­cat­ing Probabilities

dadadarrenAug 21, 2021, 2:53 AM
8 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum Im­mor­tal­ity: A Per­spec­tive if AI Doomers are Prob­a­bly Right

Nov 7, 2024, 4:06 PM
10 points
55 comments14 min readLW link

The Mo­ral Sta­tus of In­de­pen­dent Iden­ti­cal Copies

Wei DaiNov 30, 2009, 11:41 PM
66 points
80 comments2 min readLW link

Ab­sent-Minded Driver and Self-Lo­cat­ing Probabilities

dadadarrenAug 14, 2021, 12:09 AM
12 points
16 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Hello or­di­nary folks, I’m the Cho­sen One

dadadarrenSep 4, 2020, 7:59 PM
31 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

A Sim­plified Ver­sion of Per­spec­tive Solu­tion to the Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

dadadarrenDec 31, 2020, 6:27 PM
9 points
39 comments5 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Should VS Would and New­comb’s Paradox

dadadarrenJul 3, 2021, 11:45 PM
5 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and Embed­ded Agency

dadadarrenJun 26, 2021, 1:45 AM
7 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

An­thropic Para­doxes and Self Refer­ence

dadadarrenJun 6, 2021, 2:52 AM
6 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

“Who I am” is an ax­iom.

dadadarrenApr 25, 2021, 9:59 PM
7 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Sny­der-Beat­tie, Sand­berg, Drexler & Bon­sall (2020): The Timing of Evolu­tion­ary Tran­si­tions Suggests In­tel­li­gent Life Is Rare

Kaj_SotalaNov 24, 2020, 10:36 AM
83 points
20 comments2 min readLW link
(www.liebertpub.com)

Per­spec­tive Based Rea­son­ing Could Ab­solve CDT

dadadarrenOct 8, 2023, 11:22 AM
4 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

An In­tro to An­thropic Rea­son­ing us­ing the ‘Boy or Girl Para­dox’ as a toy example

TobyCApr 23, 2023, 10:20 AM
30 points
28 comments19 min readLW link

An­throp­ics in a Teg­mark Multiverse

paulfchristianoApr 2, 2011, 6:34 PM
20 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

[Link]: An­thropic shadow, or the dark dusk of disaster

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 4, 2013, 7:52 PM
20 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics: A Short Note on the Fis­sion Riddle

Chris_LeongJul 28, 2018, 4:14 AM
11 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

An­thropic de­ci­sion the­ory I: Sleep­ing beauty and selflessness

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 1, 2011, 11:41 AM
22 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

An­thropic effects im­ply that we are more likely to live in the uni­verse with in­ter­stel­lar panspermia

avturchinMar 10, 2020, 1:12 PM
19 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

No An­thropic Evidence

Vladimir_NesovSep 23, 2012, 10:33 AM
21 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

The ran­dom­ness/​ig­no­rance model solves many an­thropic problems

Rafael HarthNov 11, 2019, 5:02 PM
9 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are some of bizarre the­o­ries based on an­thropic rea­son­ing?

Dr. JamchieFeb 3, 2019, 6:48 PM
21 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Treat­ing an­thropic self­ish prefer­ences as an ex­ten­sion of TDT

ManfredJan 1, 2015, 12:43 AM
13 points
16 comments11 min readLW link

An­throp­ics over-sim­plified: it’s about pri­ors, not updates

Stuart_ArmstrongMar 2, 2020, 1:45 PM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Up­date­less anthropics

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 20, 2011, 7:23 PM
13 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

An­thropic de­ci­sion the­ory for self­ish agents

BelugaOct 21, 2014, 3:56 PM
12 points
37 comments6 min readLW link

2 An­thropic Questions

abramdemskiMay 26, 2012, 10:51 PM
15 points
31 comments2 min readLW link

An em­piri­cal test of an­thropic prin­ci­ple /​ great filter reasoning

James_MillerMar 24, 2010, 6:44 PM
13 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

Publi­ca­tion of “An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory”

Stuart_ArmstrongSep 20, 2017, 3:41 PM
12 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] Gen­eral-au­di­ence doc­u­men­tary on cos­mol­ogy, an­throp­ics, and superintelligence

AcademianJan 11, 2013, 5:11 AM
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Three easy an­thropic mod­els, and two hard ones

Stuart_ArmstrongJan 26, 2011, 10:41 AM
14 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Re­ply to Stu­art on anthropics

cousin_itJan 31, 2011, 7:06 AM
8 points
32 comments1 min readLW link

Frag­ile Uni­verse Hy­poth­e­sis and the Con­tinual An­thropic Prin­ci­ple—How crazy am I?

PeterCoinAug 18, 2015, 12:53 AM
10 points
32 comments7 min readLW link

An­throp­ics doesn’t ex­plain why the Cold War stayed Cold

KnaveOfAllTradesAug 20, 2014, 7:23 PM
12 points
34 comments8 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory II: Self-Indi­ca­tion, Self-Sam­pling and decisions

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 2, 2011, 10:03 AM
14 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic rea­son­ing and cor­re­lated de­ci­sion making

Stuart_ArmstrongSep 23, 2009, 3:10 PM
9 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

[Link] Physics-based an­throp­ics?

Brian_TomasikNov 14, 2014, 7:02 AM
8 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

The Dooms­day ar­gu­ment in an­thropic de­ci­sion theory

Stuart_ArmstrongAug 31, 2017, 1:44 PM
11 points
58 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic un­cer­tainty in the Ev­i­den­tial Black­mail problem

Johannes TreutleinMay 14, 2017, 4:43 PM
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(casparoesterheld.com)

An­throp­ics and Bi­ased Models

casebashApr 15, 2016, 2:18 AM
6 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

An­thropic Rea­son­ing by CDT in New­comb’s Problem

gRRMar 14, 2012, 12:44 AM
9 points
36 comments1 min readLW link

Re­vis­it­ing the An­thropic Trilemma II: ax­ioms and assumptions

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 16, 2011, 9:42 AM
9 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

Papers fram­ing an­thropic ques­tions as de­ci­sion prob­lems?

jsalvatierApr 26, 2012, 12:40 AM
6 points
36 comments1 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory VI: Ap­ply­ing ADT to com­mon an­thropic problems

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 6, 2011, 11:50 AM
8 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory III: Solv­ing Selfless and To­tal Utili­tar­ian Sleep­ing Beauty

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 3, 2011, 10:04 AM
9 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Re­vis­ing pri­ors and an­thropic reasoning

PhilGoetzFeb 6, 2011, 5:42 AM
3 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

Dooms­day ar­gu­ment for An­thropic De­ci­sion Theory

Stuart_ArmstrongSep 9, 2015, 12:37 PM
6 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Re­vis­it­ing the an­thropic trilemma III: solu­tions and interpretations

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 17, 2011, 3:14 PM
6 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

An­thropic prin­ci­ples agree on big­ger fu­ture filters

XiXiDuNov 2, 2010, 10:14 AM
3 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem, An­thropic Prin­ci­ple and Per­spec­tive Reasoning

dadadarrenMar 9, 2019, 3:21 PM
5 points
22 comments8 min readLW link

The Val­idity of the An­thropic Principle

casebashApr 23, 2016, 9:12 AM
2 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

[SEQ RERUN] Real-Life An­thropic Weirdness

MinibearRexApr 12, 2013, 5:33 AM
4 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory V: Link­ing and ADT

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 5, 2011, 1:31 PM
6 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

[COMIC] An­thropic dun­geon crawling

jsalvatierFeb 14, 2011, 3:30 PM
3 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Sim­plified An­thropic Doomsday

Stuart_ArmstrongSep 2, 2017, 8:37 PM
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

An­thropic summary

KatjaGraceApr 27, 2010, 5:35 PM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

More an­thropic warn­ings at H+

KatjaGraceMay 13, 2011, 2:02 AM
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Per­son mo­ments make sense of anthropics

KatjaGraceApr 11, 2011, 2:57 AM
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

The Dooms­day ar­gu­ment in an­thropic de­ci­sion theory

Stuart_ArmstrongAug 31, 2017, 1:20 PM
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory IV: Solv­ing Selfish and Aver­age-Utili­tar­ian Sleep­ing Beauty

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 4, 2011, 10:55 AM
3 points
24 comments4 min readLW link

Re­vis­it­ing the an­thropic trilemma I: in­tu­itions and contradictions

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 15, 2011, 11:18 AM
3 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Katja Grace’s An­thropic Rea­son­ing in the Great Filter

LarksNov 4, 2010, 10:47 AM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A new (?) an­thropic prin­ci­ple, and mo­ti­va­tion thereof

BrianNachbarFeb 17, 2012, 8:47 PM
0 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Boltz­mann Brains and An­thropic Refer­ence Classes (Up­dated)

pragmatistJun 4, 2012, 4:04 AM
−7 points
113 comments4 min readLW link

SSA re­jects an­thropic shadow, too

jessicataJul 27, 2023, 5:25 PM
74 points
38 comments11 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Where Physics Meets Experience

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 25, 2008, 4:58 AM
76 points
38 comments11 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty: Is Disagree­ment While Shar­ing All In­for­ma­tion Pos­si­ble in An­thropic Prob­lems?

dadadarrenAug 1, 2019, 8:10 PM
7 points
32 comments10 min readLW link

The Per­spec­tive-based Ex­pla­na­tion to the Reflec­tive In­con­sis­tency Paradox

dadadarrenJan 26, 2024, 7:00 PM
10 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

The Closed Eyes Ar­gu­ment For Third­ing

omnizoidMar 31, 2024, 10:11 PM
1 point
22 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Should you re­fuse this bet in Tech­ni­color Sleep­ing Beauty?

Ape in the coatApr 4, 2024, 8:55 AM
16 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Beauty and the Bets

Ape in the coatMar 27, 2024, 6:17 AM
9 points
31 comments12 min readLW link

Why Two Valid An­swers Ap­proach is not Enough for Sleep­ing Beauty

Ape in the coatFeb 6, 2024, 2:21 PM
6 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one ac­tu­ally changed their mind re­gard­ing Sleep­ing Beauty prob­lem?

Ape in the coatJan 30, 2024, 8:34 AM
15 points
50 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Adam Elga’s proof for thirdism in Sleep­ing Beauty still con­sid­ered to be sound?

Ape in the coatJul 16, 2023, 2:11 PM
8 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

When is a mind me?

Rob BensingerApr 17, 2024, 5:56 AM
144 points
130 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] Is there any rigor­ous work on us­ing an­thropic un­cer­tainty to pre­vent situ­a­tional aware­ness /​ de­cep­tion?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)Sep 4, 2024, 12:40 PM
19 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Datasets that change the odds you exist

dynomightJun 29, 2024, 6:45 PM
56 points
4 comments6 min readLW link
(dynomight.net)

Dooms­day Ar­gu­ment and the False Dilemma of An­thropic Reasoning

Ape in the coatJul 5, 2024, 5:38 AM
37 points
55 comments7 min readLW link

Rel­a­tivity The­ory for What the Fu­ture ‘You’ Is and Isn’t

FlorianHJul 29, 2024, 2:01 AM
7 points
49 comments4 min readLW link

A com­pu­ta­tional com­plex­ity ar­gu­ment for many worlds

jessicataAug 13, 2024, 7:35 PM
32 points
15 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

[Question] Are You More Real If You’re Really For­get­ful?

Thane RuthenisNov 24, 2024, 7:30 PM
39 points
25 comments5 min readLW link

You don’t ac­tu­ally need a phys­i­cal mul­ti­verse to ex­plain an­thropic fine-tun­ing.

FraserMar 12, 2025, 7:33 AM
7 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(frvser.com)

Chance is in the Map, not the Territory

Jan 13, 2025, 7:17 PM
67 points
18 comments7 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty: an Ac­cu­racy-based Approach

glauberdebonaFeb 10, 2025, 3:40 PM
7 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Reflec­tive AIXI and Anthropics

DiffractorSep 24, 2018, 2:15 AM
18 points
14 comments8 min readLW link

An­thropic rea­son­ing isn’t magic

Stuart_ArmstrongNov 1, 2017, 8:57 AM
22 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

An­throp­ics made easy?

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 14, 2018, 12:56 AM
32 points
61 comments6 min readLW link

An­throp­ics is pretty normal

Stuart_ArmstrongJan 17, 2019, 1:26 PM
39 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and Fermi

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 20, 2018, 1:04 PM
26 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

Out­law­ing An­throp­ics: An Up­date­less Dilemma

Eliezer YudkowskySep 8, 2009, 6:31 PM
37 points
210 comments4 min readLW link

Forc­ing An­throp­ics: Boltz­mann Brains

Eliezer YudkowskySep 7, 2009, 7:02 PM
37 points
72 comments5 min readLW link

Quan­tify­ing an­thropic effects on the Fermi paradox

Lukas FinnvedenFeb 15, 2019, 10:51 AM
29 points
5 comments27 min readLW link

Real-Life An­thropic Weirdness

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 5, 2009, 10:26 PM
33 points
90 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Would solv­ing log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als solve an­throp­ics?

Chris_LeongApr 5, 2019, 11:08 AM
20 points
52 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics: Full Non-in­dex­i­cal Con­di­tion­ing (FNC) is inconsistent

Stuart_ArmstrongJan 14, 2019, 3:03 PM
30 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Para­doxes in all an­thropic probabilities

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 19, 2018, 3:31 PM
22 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

An­thropic Atheism

[deleted]Jan 13, 2014, 5:00 AM
34 points
54 comments5 min readLW link

An­thropic prob­a­bil­ities: an­swer­ing differ­ent questions

Stuart_ArmstrongJan 14, 2019, 6:50 PM
21 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The ques­tions and classes of SSA

Stuart_ArmstrongJan 17, 2019, 11:50 AM
12 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Caught in the glare of two an­thropic shadows

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 4, 2013, 7:54 PM
29 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Why (an­thropic) prob­a­bil­ity isn’t enough

Stuart_ArmstrongDec 13, 2012, 4:09 PM
33 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Fun­da­men­tals of kick­ing an­thropic butt

ManfredMar 26, 2012, 6:43 AM
25 points
60 comments10 min readLW link

What the Uni­verse Wants: An­throp­ics from the POV of Self-Replication

moridinamaelJan 12, 2018, 7:03 PM
9 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

An­throp­ics: Where does Less Wrong lie?

Chris_LeongJun 22, 2018, 10:27 AM
15 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

An­thropic para­doxes trans­posed into An­thropic De­ci­sion Theory

Stuart_ArmstrongDec 19, 2018, 6:07 PM
18 points
23 comments4 min readLW link

An­thropic prob­a­bil­ities and cost functions

Stuart_ArmstrongDec 21, 2018, 5:54 PM
16 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

SUDT: A toy de­ci­sion the­ory for up­date­less anthropics

BenyaFeb 23, 2014, 11:50 PM
27 points
14 comments8 min readLW link

The Ab­sent-Minded Driver

Wei DaiSep 16, 2009, 12:51 AM
49 points
151 comments3 min readLW link

Physics has laws, the Uni­verse might not

ShmiJun 9, 2018, 5:33 AM
25 points
23 comments3 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cal Motte and Bailey in two ver­sions of Sleep­ing Beauty

Ape in the coatAug 2, 2023, 7:08 AM
32 points
56 comments6 min readLW link

For The Peo­ple Who Are Still Alive

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 14, 2008, 5:13 PM
45 points
72 comments4 min readLW link

Selfish prefer­ences and self-modification

ManfredJan 14, 2015, 8:42 AM
12 points
24 comments2 min readLW link

How many peo­ple am I?

ManfredDec 15, 2014, 6:11 PM
7 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

Deriv­ing prob­a­bil­ities from causal diagrams

ManfredNov 13, 2014, 12:28 AM
10 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Boltz­mann Brains and Within-model vs. Between-mod­els Probability

Charlie SteinerJul 14, 2018, 9:52 AM
15 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

The An­thropic Prin­ci­ple Tells Us That AGI Will Not Be Conscious

nemAug 28, 2023, 3:25 PM
−4 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

The AI in a box boxes you

Stuart_ArmstrongFeb 2, 2010, 10:10 AM
169 points
389 comments1 min readLW link

An­thropic Effects in Es­ti­mat­ing Evolu­tion Difficulty

Mark XuJul 5, 2021, 4:02 AM
12 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Are co­in­ci­dences clues about missed dis­asters? It de­pends on your an­swer to the Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem.

HarlanJul 5, 2021, 7:12 PM
32 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Prac­ti­cal an­throp­ics summary

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 8, 2021, 3:10 PM
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and Fermi: grabby, visi­ble, zoo-keep­ing, and early aliens

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 8, 2021, 3:07 PM
15 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 2: Telekine­sis, refer­ence classes, and other scandals

Joe CarlsmithOct 1, 2021, 5:49 AM
21 points
2 comments35 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 3: An aside on bet­ting in anthropics

Joe CarlsmithOct 1, 2021, 5:52 AM
17 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 4: In defense of the pre­sump­tu­ous philosopher

Joe CarlsmithOct 1, 2021, 5:59 AM
13 points
20 comments22 min readLW link

On the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe CarlsmithOct 29, 2021, 5:50 PM
35 points
4 comments32 min readLW link

Each refer­ence class has its own end

avturchinJan 2, 2022, 3:59 PM
8 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe CarlsmithNov 28, 2021, 8:35 PM
52 points
9 comments47 min readLW link

[Question] Is Grabby Aliens built on good an­thropic rea­son­ing?

Steven ByrnesMar 17, 2022, 2:12 PM
40 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Our time in his­tory as ev­i­dence for simu­la­tion the­ory?

Garrett GarzonieMar 18, 2022, 3:35 AM
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The dooms­day ar­gu­ment is normal

avturchinApr 3, 2022, 3:17 PM
6 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

Why are we so early?

FlaglandbaseApr 4, 2022, 8:49 AM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Choice := An­throp­ics un­cer­tainty? And po­ten­tial im­pli­ca­tions for agency

Antoine de ScorrailleApr 21, 2022, 4:38 PM
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Con­sis­tency Mystery

FlaglandbaseApr 23, 2022, 8:05 AM
−2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Why don’t we think we’re in the sim­plest uni­verse with in­tel­li­gent life?

ADifferentAnonymousJun 18, 2022, 3:05 AM
30 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

The table of differ­ent sam­pling as­sump­tions in anthropics

avturchinJun 29, 2022, 10:41 AM
39 points
5 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] How does an­thropic rea­son­ing and illu­sion­ism/​elimini­tivism in­ter­act?

ShiroeOct 5, 2022, 10:31 PM
5 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Quan­tum Suicide and Au­mann’s Agree­ment Theorem

Isaac KingOct 27, 2022, 1:32 AM
14 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

UDASSA

Jacob FalkovichJan 6, 2023, 1:07 AM
27 points
8 comments10 min readLW link

Top YouTube chan­nel Ver­i­ta­sium re­leases video on Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

Alex_AltairFeb 11, 2023, 8:36 PM
25 points
22 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

A Stranger Pri­or­ity? Topics at the Outer Reaches of Effec­tive Altru­ism (my dis­ser­ta­tion)

Joe CarlsmithFeb 21, 2023, 5:26 PM
38 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

The Evil Ge­nie Puzzle

Chris_LeongJul 25, 2018, 6:12 AM
19 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Fur­ther con­sid­er­a­tions on the Ev­i­den­tial­ist’s Wager

Martín SotoNov 3, 2022, 8:06 PM
3 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

New­comb Variant

lsusrAug 29, 2023, 7:02 AM
25 points
22 comments1 min readLW link

Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Ev­i­dence and Ran­dom Sam­pling in Anthropics

Ape in the coatSep 3, 2023, 6:55 AM
9 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

Avoid­ing dooms­day: a “proof” of the self-in­di­ca­tion assumption

Stuart_ArmstrongSep 23, 2009, 2:54 PM
26 points
238 comments3 min readLW link

Why I Pre­fer the Copen­hagen In­ter­pre­ta­tion(s)

dadadarrenOct 31, 2020, 9:06 PM
5 points
44 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Shock Level 5: Big Wor­lds and Mo­dal Realism

RokoMay 25, 2010, 11:19 PM
39 points
158 comments4 min readLW link

Re­s­ur­rec­tion of the dead via mul­ti­verse-wide acausual cooperation

avturchinSep 3, 2018, 11:21 AM
24 points
30 comments7 min readLW link

MWI, copies and probability

RokoJun 25, 2010, 4:46 PM
19 points
162 comments3 min readLW link

It’s not like any­thing to be a bat

Scott AlexanderMar 27, 2010, 2:32 PM
22 points
192 comments2 min readLW link

In SIA, refer­ence classes (al­most) don’t matter

Stuart_ArmstrongJan 17, 2019, 11:29 AM
19 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] A thought experiment

sisyphusDec 10, 2022, 5:23 AM
3 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Say­ing the quiet part out loud: trad­ing off x-risk for per­sonal immortality

disturbanceNov 2, 2023, 5:43 PM
84 points
89 comments5 min readLW link

De­stroy­ing the fabric of the uni­verse as an in­stru­men­tal goal.

AI-doomSep 14, 2023, 8:04 PM
−7 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Dy­ing in Many Worlds

GhatanathoahDec 21, 2012, 11:48 AM
25 points
40 comments5 min readLW link

AI Safety via Luck

JozdienApr 1, 2023, 8:13 PM
81 points
7 comments11 min readLW link

UDT shows that de­ci­sion the­ory is more puz­zling than ever

Wei DaiSep 13, 2023, 12:26 PM
218 points
56 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] A short talk on SB and friends

Jon ZeroNov 29, 2020, 9:07 PM
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Which Anaes­thetic To Choose?

dadadarrenOct 14, 2023, 2:55 PM
10 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Out-of-body rea­son­ing (OOBR)

Jon ZeroJan 9, 2021, 4:10 PM
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

An An­tropic Ar­gu­ment for Post-sin­gu­lar­ity Antinatalism

monkaapMar 16, 2021, 5:40 PM
1 point
4 comments3 min readLW link

Learn­ing Rus­sian Roulette

BunthutApr 2, 2021, 6:56 PM
24 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

An­throp­ics: differ­ent prob­a­bil­ities, differ­ent questions

Stuart_ArmstrongMay 6, 2021, 1:14 PM
25 points
10 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] Why don’t peo­ple talk about the Dooms­day Ar­gu­ment more of­ten?

samMar 31, 2023, 5:52 PM
−1 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Dooms­day, Sam­pling As­sump­tions, and Bayes

Yair HalberstadtJun 14, 2021, 12:41 PM
6 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

Mis­takes with Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Evidence

abramdemskiJun 8, 2019, 11:07 PM
232 points
29 comments12 min readLW link1 review

Prefer­ence For (Many) Fu­ture Worlds

wedrifidJul 15, 2011, 11:31 PM
31 points
37 comments5 min readLW link

Chi Nguyen’s Shortform

Chi NguyenFeb 9, 2025, 8:41 PM
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

In defense of an­throp­i­cally up­dat­ing EDT

Anthony DiGiovanniMar 5, 2024, 6:21 AM
18 points
17 comments13 min readLW link

The SIA pop­u­la­tion up­date can be sur­pris­ingly small

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 8, 2021, 10:45 AM
48 points
12 comments10 min readLW link

An­throp­ics in in­finite universes

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 8, 2021, 6:56 AM
13 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Un­typ­i­cal SIA

avturchinJun 8, 2022, 2:23 PM
5 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

An­thropic de­ci­sion the­ory for self-lo­cat­ing beliefs

Stuart_ArmstrongJul 12, 2021, 2:11 PM
17 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

For the Sake of Plea­sure Alone

Greenless MirrorFeb 27, 2025, 8:07 PM
3 points
14 comments12 min readLW link

The Val­idity of Self-Lo­cat­ing Prob­a­bil­ities (Pt. 2)

dadadarrenAug 25, 2021, 1:53 AM
6 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

in­dex­i­cal un­cer­tainty and the Ax­iom of Independence

Wei DaiJun 7, 2009, 9:18 AM
26 points
79 comments3 min readLW link

Reflec­tive con­sis­tency, ran­dom­ized de­ci­sions, and the dan­gers of un­re­al­is­tic thought experiments

Radford NealDec 7, 2023, 3:33 AM
34 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

Keep­ing it (less than) real: Against ℶ₂ pos­si­ble peo­ple or worlds

quiet_NaNSep 13, 2024, 5:29 PM
17 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

Cog­ni­tive In­sta­bil­ity, Phys­i­cal­ism, and Free Will

dadadarrenJul 16, 2022, 1:13 PM
5 points
27 comments2 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

SIA > SSA, part 1: Learn­ing from the fact that you exist

Joe CarlsmithOct 1, 2021, 5:43 AM
46 points
16 comments16 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness, Free Will and Scien­tific Ob­jec­tivity in Per­spec­tive-Based Reasoning

dadadarrenOct 14, 2021, 6:00 PM
7 points
25 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

False vac­uum: the uni­verse play­ing quan­tum suicide

Stuart_ArmstrongJan 9, 2013, 5:04 PM
26 points
49 comments2 min readLW link

Don’t Use the “God’s-Eye View” in An­thropic Prob­lems.

dadadarrenOct 26, 2021, 1:47 PM
6 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

X-Risk, An­throp­ics, & Peter Thiel’s In­vest­ment Thesis

Jackson WagnerOct 26, 2021, 6:50 PM
21 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

Bet­ter and Worse Ways of Stat­ing SIA

dadadarrenOct 28, 2021, 4:04 PM
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

You Don’t Need An­throp­ics To Do Science

dadadarrenNov 7, 2021, 3:07 PM
6 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

[Question] Nu­clear war anthropics

smountjoyDec 12, 2021, 4:54 AM
11 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

A Pin and a Bal­loon: An­thropic Frag­ility In­creases Chances of Ru­n­away Global Warm­ing

avturchinSep 11, 2022, 10:25 AM
33 points
23 comments52 min readLW link

Les­sons from Failed At­tempts to Model Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

Ape in the coatFeb 20, 2024, 6:43 AM
13 points
16 comments14 min readLW link

Where Ex­pe­rience Con­fuses Physicists

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 26, 2008, 5:05 AM
41 points
30 comments8 min readLW link

Three Dialogues on Identity

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 21, 2008, 6:13 AM
61 points
50 comments6 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty Re­solved?

ksvanhornMay 22, 2018, 2:13 PM
16 points
77 comments10 min readLW link

How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?

Eliezer YudkowskySep 20, 2008, 9:38 PM
36 points
140 comments1 min readLW link

The I-Less Eye

rwallaceMar 28, 2010, 6:13 PM
44 points
91 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] A way to beat su­per­ra­tional/​EDT agents?

Abhimanyu Pallavi SudhirAug 17, 2020, 2:33 PM
5 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

L-zom­bies! (L-zom­bies?)

BenyaFeb 7, 2014, 6:30 PM
52 points
74 comments7 min readLW link

SIA be­comes SSA in the multiverse

avturchinFeb 1, 2022, 11:31 AM
7 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

Snake Eyes Paradox

Martin RandallJun 11, 2023, 4:10 AM
22 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

Du­pli­ca­tion ver­sus probability

Stuart_ArmstrongJun 20, 2018, 12:18 PM
27 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty Re­solved (?) Pt. 2: Iden­tity and Betting

ksvanhornJun 2, 2018, 2:43 AM
9 points
50 comments6 min readLW link

“Solv­ing” self­ish­ness for UDT

Stuart_ArmstrongOct 27, 2014, 5:51 PM
39 points
52 comments8 min readLW link

I no­tice that I am con­fused about Iden­tity and Resurrection

ialdabaothNov 14, 2013, 8:38 PM
65 points
80 comments6 min readLW link

The Ab­solute Self-Selec­tion Assumption

paulfchristianoApr 11, 2011, 3:25 PM
96 points
44 comments7 min readLW link

How Many of Me Are There?

EneaszApr 15, 2011, 7:00 PM
18 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Another Non-An­thropic Para­dox: The Un­sur­pris­ing Rare­ness of Rare Events

Ape in the coatJan 21, 2024, 3:58 PM
19 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

If a tree falls on Sleep­ing Beauty...

ataNov 12, 2010, 1:14 AM
147 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

Does “Ul­ti­mate Neart­er­mism” via Eter­nal In­fla­tion dom­i­nate Longter­mism in ex­pec­ta­tion?

Jordan ArelAug 17, 2024, 10:28 PM
6 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

An­trop­i­cal Prob­a­bil­ities Are Fully Ex­plained by Differ­ence in Pos­si­ble Outcomes

Ape in the coatNov 9, 2023, 3:34 PM
19 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

SSA vs. SIA: how fu­ture pop­u­la­tion may provide ev­i­dence for or against the foun­da­tions of poli­ti­cal liberalism

jJul 30, 2023, 8:18 PM
−6 points
10 comments55 min readLW link

Break­ing the SIA with an ex­po­nen­tially-Sleep­ing Beauty

0nautFeb 20, 2022, 8:03 AM
8 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Not Even Evidence

DachOct 6, 2020, 1:20 AM
6 points
15 comments8 min readLW link

Learn­ing as you play: an­thropic shadow in deadly games

dr_sAug 12, 2023, 7:34 AM
37 points
28 comments35 min readLW link

The Solu­tion to Sleep­ing Beauty

Ape in the coatMar 4, 2024, 6:46 AM
9 points
77 comments13 min readLW link

Life, Death, and Fi­nance in the Cos­mic Mul­ti­verse

peterbOct 16, 2022, 6:57 PM
2 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Some Var­i­ants of Sleep­ing Beauty

SMK and EOC
Mar 1, 2023, 4:51 PM
34 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What are the sur­viv­ing wor­lds like?

KvmanThinkingFeb 17, 2025, 12:41 AM
21 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Disen­tan­gling four mo­ti­va­tions for act­ing in ac­cor­dance with UDT

Julian StastnyNov 5, 2023, 9:26 PM
35 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Why math­e­mat­ics works

Douglas_ReayMar 8, 2018, 6:00 PM
7 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
No comments.