Fore­cast­ing rare events

Too good to be true

[Ques­tion] Adop­tion and twin stud­ies confounders

Weekly LW Meetups

[QUESTION]: Driver­less car forecasts

Meetup : Is­rael Less Wrong Meetup—So­cial Topics and LW outreach

Meetup : Wash­ing­ton, D.C.: Pri­soner’s Dilemna tournament

[link] [poll] Fu­ture Progress in Ar­tifi­cial Intelligence

Do­mains of forecasting

Con­found it! Cor­re­la­tion is (usu­ally) not cau­sa­tion! But why not?

The in­su­lar­ity cri­tique of cli­mate science

Meetup : Brus­sels—Au­gust (topic TBD)

Meetup : Brus­sels—July meetup

Effec­tive Altru­ism Sum­mit is One Month Away

Change Con­texts to Im­prove Arguments

[QUESTION]: What are your views on cli­mate change, and how did you form them?

Search Eng­ines and Oracles

Con­sider giv­ing an ex­pla­na­tion for your dele­tion this time around. “Harry Yud­kowsky and the Meth­ods of Pos­tra­tional­ity: Chap­ter One: Em Dashes Colons and Ellipses, Lit­téra­teurs Go Wild”

SSRIs: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Car­bon diox­ide, cli­mate sen­si­tivity, feed­backs, and the his­tor­i­cal record: a cur­sory ex­am­i­na­tion of the An­thro­pogenic Global Warm­ing (AGW) hypothesis

Meetup : Syd­ney Meetup—July

Re­cent up­dates to gw­ern.net (2013-2014)

Guard­ing Against the Post­mod­ernist Failure Mode

Meetup : Cal­ibra­tion Train­ing and Potluck—Portland

LINK: Melt­ing Arc­tic is re­leas­ing mil­lions of tons of methane

[QUESTION]: LessWrong web traf­fic data?

Use­ful Stan­dard­ized Tests?

Time se­ries fore­cast­ing for global tem­per­a­ture: an out­side view of cli­mate forecasting

Cli­mate sci­ence: how it mat­ters for un­der­stand­ing fore­cast­ing, ma­te­ri­als I’ve read or plan to read, sources of po­ten­tial bias

Open thread, 7-14 July 2014

Eth­i­cal­ity of Deny­ing Agency

Quickly pass­ing through the great filter

Harry Yud­kowsky and the Meth­ods of Pos­tra­tional­ity: Chap­ter One: Em Dashes Colons and Ellipses, Lit­téra­teurs Go Wild

Ra­tion­al­ity Quotes July 2014

Good books for in­com­ing col­lege stu­dents?

Meetup : LessWrong Aus­tralia—On­line Hangout

Toy prob­lem: in­crease pro­duc­tion or use pro­duc­tion?

Meetup :

Meetup : Wash­ing­ton D.C. Games Meetup

Meetup : Lon­don so­cial meetup—pos­si­bly in a park

[LINK] Claus­trum Stim­u­la­tion Tem­porar­ily Turns Off Con­scious­ness in an oth­er­wise Awake Patient

Weekly LW Meetups

Weather and cli­mate fore­cast­ing: how the challenges differ by time horizon

Tools want to be­come agents

Meetup : Moscow meet up

Just for fun: Com­puter game to illus­trate AI takeover con­cepts?

Separat­ing uni­ver­sity ed­u­ca­tion from grad­ing

Steel­man­ning Inefficiency

[mod­er­a­tor ac­tion] Eug­ine_Nier is now banned for mass down­vote harassment

Ter­minol­ogy Thread (or “name that pat­tern”)