Fu­tures stud­ies: the field and the as­so­ci­ated community

Sce­nario plan­ning, its util­ity, and its re­la­tion­ship with forecasting

Down­vote stalk­ers: Driv­ing mem­bers away from the LessWrong com­mu­nity?

July 2014 Me­dia Thread

Group Ra­tion­al­ity Diary, July 1-15

Meetup : Can­berra: Para­noid Debating

An an­swer to a pos­si­ble ob­jec­tion to cash-trans­fer charities

A Parable of Elites and Takeoffs

Meetup : LW Syd­ney Ra­tion­al­ity Dojo—Agency

Open thread, 30 June 2014- 6 July 2014

An At­tempt at Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Meetup : Up­per Canada LW Megameetup: Ot­tawa, Toronto, Mon­treal, Water­loo, London

Weekly LW Meetups

[LINK] Neu­roe­co­nomics course on coursera started just this week

Hyper­link Superorganism

Meetup : Ra­tion­al­ity Prac­tice—Be Specific

R sup­port group and the benefits of ap­plied statistics

The silos of ex­per­tise: be­yond heuris­tics and biases

Set­ting an ex­am­ple too good

Hap­piness and Children

Gen­eral-pur­pose fore­cast­ing and the as­so­ci­ated community

Separat­ing the roles of the­ory and di­rect em­piri­cal ev­i­dence in be­lief for­ma­tion: the ex­am­ples of min­i­mum wage and an­thro­pogenic global warming

Doubt re­gard­ing ba­sic assumptions

A new deriva­tion of the Born rule

The rep­re­sen­ta­tional fallacy

The rep­re­sen­ta­tional fallacy

Ar­tifi­cial Utility Mon­sters as Effec­tive Altruism

[LINK] seL4, se­cure op­er­at­ing sys­tem ker­nel is be­ing open-sourced

An overview of fore­cast­ing for poli­tics, con­flict, and poli­ti­cal violence

How do you no­tice when you are ig­no­rant of nec­es­sary al­ter­na­tive hy­pothe­ses?

Meetup : Tel Aviv: Choos­ing re­search topics

Meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Choos­ing re­search topics

Meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Choos­ing re­search topics

Vec­tor psychology

Utili­tar­i­anism and Rel­a­tivity Realism

[LINK] Why Talk to Philoso­phers: Physi­cist Sean Car­roll Dis­cusses “Com­mon Mi­sun­der­stand­ings” about Philosophy

Les­sons from weather fore­cast­ing and its his­tory for fore­cast­ing as a domain

Open thread, 23-29 June 2014

How do you take notes?

Will AGI sur­prise the world?

Mo­ti­va­tors: Altru­is­tic Ac­tions for Non-Altru­is­tic Reasons

Weekly LW Meetups

Meetup : Wash­ing­ton D.C.: See­ing Off

Iden­ti­fi­ca­tion of Force Mul­ti­pli­ers for Success

Meetup : Bratis­lava Meetup XIV.

Con­ser­va­tion of ex­pected moral ev­i­dence, clarified

Meetup : Moscow meet up

Meetup : Vienna

[LINK] Scott Aaron­son on Google, Break­ing Cir­cu­lar­ity and Eigenmorality

An AI Takeover Thought Experiment