I really think you aught to start reading through the sequences on rationality and biases, but you might need to start with basic logic first.
If you’ve read them already, then I’m just shocked. Maybe read them again? I don’t know what else to suggest.
The fact that you can continue to argue that Knox and Sollecito are guilty with a 90% confidence, after it has been proven within the limits if modern science’s ability to prove anything, that there is not one trace of physical evidence that Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder, is just mind blowing to me.
All of the arguments presented to you are going to fail, because they are based on critical thinking and logic, and you don’t seem to be capable of these.
To repeat a previous poster, the fact that you are a lawyer and show such a complete inability to reason (to the point that you think logical fallacies are reasonable arguments in some cases*) is downright scary.
*Motive is reasonable evidence for adjusting credibility, but it is always weak and often insignificant. It should never, ever be used to claim an argument is false. The most you can claim is uncertainty of the truth of an argument if the motive is sufficiently strong.
[I]t has been proven within the limits if modern science’s ability to prove anything, that there is not one trace of physical evidence that [some specific facts about a specific event].
This seems like ridiculous hyperbole—science has far more ability to “prove” things that are repeatable than unrepeatable.
This seems like ridiculous hyperbole—science has far more ability to “prove” things that are repeatable than unrepeatable.
You are completely correct.
In the spirit of constructing the best possible argument to engage with, I think we should run as if bigjeff5 had actually said exactly what he said, but appended to it “and the prior probability of the alleged crime having occurred as per the police theory is so incredibly low that nothing but physical evidence that Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder should push our posterior probability into the >1% range”, or something similar.
I’d say there’s all sorts of non-physical evidence that would be sufficient to push our posterior probability of their guilt higher than that (insofar as any evidence in a materialistic universe can be said to be non-physical.) Email records between Knox, Sollecito and Guede discussing their plans to kill Kercher, for instance. Or if Knox or Sollecito had made statements about the circumstances of Kercher’s death which forensics corroborated which they could not plausibly have made without knowledge that would require them to have been there. Even just evidence of private meetings between Knox, Sollecito and Guede, combined with enough of the warning signs for a person likely to commit murder ought to boost the likelihood that they were complicit well over 1%.
It’s not that there aren’t possible forms of non physical evidence that would be adequate to establish a high likelihood for their guilt, it’s that such evidence is conspicuous in its absence.
I’d say there’s all sorts of non-physical evidence that would be sufficient to push our posterior probability of their guilt higher than that (insofar as any evidence in a materialistic universe can be said to be non-physical.) Email records between Knox, Sollecito and Guede discussing their plans to kill Kercher, for instance. Or if Knox or Sollecito had made statements about the circumstances of Kercher’s death which forensics corroborated which they could not plausibly have made without knowledge that would require them to have been there. Even just evidence of private meetings between Knox, Sollecito and Guede, combined with enough of the warning signs for a person likely to commit murder ought to boost the likelihood that they were complicit well over 1%
My intention was certainly to have recordings of Knox and Sollecito plotting to kill Meredith Kercher, email records of such an exchange, mobile phone calls placed to Rudy Guede and so on as physical evidence if any of them had existed. I class ones and zeroes on a hard drive or a magnetic imprint on a tape as physical evidence just as I count DNA as physical evidence.
Eyewitness evidence or police claims unsupported by physical evidence would be the kind of thing I intended to exclude by specifying physical evidence.
Nonetheless, the absence of any scientific evidence at all pointing towards guilt (when there was lots of scientific evidence taken) would still be significant evidence of absence of guilt, correct?
It’s not a proof but it is evidence. He’s challenging the 90%, which is perfectly fair under Bayesian reasoning. Because that evidence of absence of guilt is very significant, it would should shift your probabilities far more downward.
I did not mean to say, “there is no evidence of absence of guilt”, or even “there is not overwhelming evidence of absence of guilt”—not really having looked directly at evidence myself, it would be silly for me to weigh in either way. I was just objecting to the hyperbole: science’s ability to “prove” (or provide evidence for) the premise that Newtonian gravity approximately holds for speeds and masses typically involved in human activity on the surface of the earth seems much, much greater than sciences ability to “prove” (or provide evidence for) anything particular feature of a past event.
I really think you aught to start reading through the sequences on rationality and biases, but you might need to start with basic logic first.
If you’ve read them already, then I’m just shocked. Maybe read them again? I don’t know what else to suggest.
I’ve already read most of that stuff, and I would suggest to you that the problem is with your thinking—not mine. If you are in the wrong, then it would naturally seem to you like my thinking is completely irrational.
Perhaps it will help if I ask you this question: What do you think are some of the best pieces of evidence against Knox and Sollecito?
P.S. It’s likely that for many people, most of the articles on bias will actually make them stupider because they will become better at results-oriented or motivated reasoning.
Since the elimination of the faulty DNA evidence (which was previously the best evidence against them), the best evidence against Knox and Sollecito come from the police interrogation, specifically Knox’s confession, and the fact that they knew the victim.
The strongest bit here is the confession, as knowing the victim is, at best, a pointer for where to look for a suspect—it is incredibly weak evidence on its own (in fact, there are dozens of people who fit better based on just knowing the victim) and does not in any way eliminate the possibility of a random stranger committing the crime. By all accounts the three got along reasonably well, if not particularly friendly to each other.
There are some interesting facts about the confession that I think you’re missing:
1.) It is factually incorrect. The statements in the confession do not fit the facts of the crime. This severely damages the validity of the confession.
2.) The confession came after 24 hours of non-stop interrogation by the Italian police. There have been a number of studies that have shown that suspects become highly confused after long, intense interrogation sessions—particularly those that include sleep deprivation as was the case here. Suspects can be coerced into making whatever statements the interrogators want. In fact, in the US we have laws against this kind of treatment, including things like the right to silence and the right to have an attorney present during an interrogation to prevent exactly these scenarios. As an attorney I’d expect to know this.
Taken together, by far the most likely scenario is that the police coerced the confession out of Knox. Just on the facts relating to the interrogation alone, I’d put the likelihood that the confession was genuine at 10% at the very highest.
If the confession were genuine, we would expect some physical evidence of Knox and Sollecito at the crime scene. Given the fact that there is literally zero physical evidence of Knox and Sollecito’s involvement, the likelihood that the confession is genuine must drop even further, to below 1%.
Considering the confession is about the only evidence for their involvement, I have to place the likelihood of their guilt at <1%. (There was a homeless man who claimed he saw them enter the apartment, but this is so weak as to be irrelevant given the poor track record of eyewitness accounts even immediately after a highly memorable event, the credibility of a detailed recollection of a mundane event over a year after it occurred is virtually non-existent, particularly without any evidence to back it up of any kind.)
Also, the reason I suggested you re-read the sequences is because you stated that you were 90% certain that all three were guilty, yet 90% that Guide was guilty even if the other two were not. This is a major failure in probability (and is actually a pretty common bias), as the options are Guide acted alone, or Guide acted with accomplices. Eliminating Knox and Sollecito from the equation eliminates a point of uncertainty, no matter how certain you are of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt, and aught to increase your confidence in the individual assessment of Guide’s guilt. Being 99% certain that Guide is guilty, and 90% certain that Guide, Knox, and Sollecito are guilty is logically consistent. Being 90% certain that Guide is guilty, yet 90% certain that all three are guilty is not logically consistent. You have to either lower you confidence in the guilt of all three, or raise your confidence in the guilt of Guide.
I may have phrased that last paragraph poorly, but most people should be able to understand it. I may edit for clarity later.
Edited to add: Here is a good article on coerced confessions, written by a forensic scientist.
Second edit, sorry, pertinent quote from the article:
When a confession is admitted and later retracted and claimed to have been made under duress, an additional question is whether the jury can understand the pressures that led up to the confession. Milgram’s (1963, 1964) obedience studies suggest that, although most people may believe they personally would never succumb to pressure, their behavior in a coercive environment is to conform. Jury members may be unable to perceive how an innocent person could actually confess to something he did not do. Widespread overconfidence in personal ability to resist coercion may lead jurors to give undue and erroneous weight to a coerced confession. Expert testimony may be necessary to help jurors understand the circumstances that lead to nonvoluntary confessions, but trial courts have not always admitted such testimony.
There are some interesting facts about the confession that I think you’re missing:
Not really, since I put little weight on what Knox said under interrogation. I have no problem believing that an innocent person would buckle under the pressure and point the finger at someone else. To me, what’s most interesting about this “confession” was that the authorities arrested another person (the wrong person) based on Knox’s statements. This is evidence that the authorities had something of an open mind about the situation.
Anyway, I disagree with you that this is the strongest piece of evidence against Knox and I think I can demonstrate it to you if you will indulge me by answering (or trying to answer) a few questions:
(1) When did Knox first become concerned about Kercher’s absence?
(2) When did Sollecito and Knox first call the police and why?
(3) If it turns out that the ransacking of Romanelli’s room was a staged burglary, do you agree that this is decent evidence against Knox?
Also, the reason I suggested you re-read the sequences is because you stated that you were 90% certain that all three were guilty, yet 90% that Guide was guilty even if the other two were not.
Can you show me where I did that? My recollection is I estimated roughly 99% for Guede’s guilt.
I agree that it would not make sense to estimate 90% for Knox, Sollecito, and Guede to all be involved in the murder and 90% for Guede alone.
Can you show me where I did that? My recollection is I estimated roughly 99% for Guede’s guilt.
I agree that it would not make sense to estimate 90% for Knox, Sollecito, and Guede to all be involved in the murder and 90% for Guede alone.
My apologies, I misread/misremembered your original assessment. I should have double checked before posting; you can ignore that whole portion of my post.
(1) When did Knox first become concerned about Kercher’s absence?
(2) When did Sollecito and Knox first call the police and why?
These circumstances are enough to drive suspicion toward Knox and Sollecito, but without any sort of physical evidence to back up the suspicions they are insignificant. There are a lot of possible explanations for their behavior and the vast majority don’t include murder.
(3) If it turns out that the ransacking of Romanelli’s room was a staged burglary, do you agree that this is decent evidence against Knox?
If it is proven that it was staged by Knox/Sollecito, then absolutely. The inverse is also true, however: if Knox/Sollecito are innocent, then they didn’t fake the break-in. The evidence that the break-in was staged is very weak, which is exactly what you expect to see if they are innocent.
This is the part, I think, that you are missing: the physical evidence (including reliable electronic evidence) is extremely strong evidence. It is “trumps everything” kind of strong. Slightly odd behavior is incredibly weak evidence. There is a huge amount of physical evidence in this case, and none of it points to Knox or Sollecito. The likelihood that they could be guilty of murder without leaving any evidence behind is incredibly small. Without evidence of any sort of link between Guide and Knox/Sollecito the complete lack of physical evidence of their involvement trumps the little bit of circumstantial evidence by a wide margin.
These circumstances are enough to drive suspicion toward Knox and Sollecito, but without any sort of physical evidence to back up the suspicions they are insignificant. There are a lot of possible explanations for their behavior and the vast majority don’t include murder.
It seems you are unable to answer two questions which would have been pretty easy if you understood the case against Knox and Sollecito and were still satisfied of their innocence. To be sure, they are komponisto-disingenuous questions. But still, why not simply try to answer them anyway?
This is the part, I think, that you are missing: the physical evidence (including reliable electronic evidence) is extremely strong evidence. It is “trumps everything” kind of strong. Slightly odd behavior is incredibly weak evidence.
Again, it seems pretty clear to me that you do not understand the case against Knox and Sollecito, which is far more than “slightly odd behavior.”
Without evidence of any sort of link between Guide and Knox/Sollecito
By the way, did you know that there was in fact evidence of such a link presented? I was surprised myself to learn about it.
Again, it seems pretty clear to me that you do not understand the case against Knox and Sollecito, which is far more than “slightly odd behavior.”
You act as if there is one unified “case against Knox and Sollecito”. There is not. There are many, as different people who believe Knox and Sollecito did it find different aspects to be more convincing. We understand plenty of cases against Knox and Sollecito just fine—the ones we have read that have been made clearly. What is true is that we don’t understand the case you have in mind. This is because you have never made that case, nor pointed us to someone clearly making that case. Yet you do expect us to miraculously understand the details of it. If we guess, unsurprisingly, it is counted as evidence that we don’t understand, yet you never attempt to correct that understanding. It is your responsibility to say why some bit evidence actually means anything. I’m disinclined to continue unless this is rectified.
Stop trolling and put up or if that’s too hard, at least shut up.
You act as if there is one unified “case against Knox and Sollecito”. There is not. There are many, as different people who believe Knox and Sollecito did it find different aspects to be more convincing.
Perhaps reasonable people can differ on fine gradations of significance among the more important pieces of evidence, but, for example, anyone who seriously believes that Knox’s “mannerisms” are among the best pieces of evidence against her has seriously missed the boat.
Anyway, if I have the time I will put together a blog post laying out what I think are the most important pieces of evidence and Knox (and Sollecito).
I’m happy that you’ve finally posted this. However, much of this piece makes me cringe. I don’t know if it is the style, an actual failure of logic or something else. Parts like:
It’s interesting that in this case, Sollecito had taken a strong interest in deviant pornography. I think he would have been really turned on by the idea of setting up a pretty white girl to be raped by a black thug.
Really doesn’t help your case more than simply inflame issues. Moreover, “deviant pornography”, seriously? What fraction of the population watches BDSM themed porn or other forms of non-standard porn? The fraction is orders of magnitude larger than the set of people who murder or arrange for murders. It isn’t even obvious to me that that’s even more common among murderers.
I’m happy that you’ve finally posted this. However, much of this piece makes me cringe. I don’t know if it is the style, an actual failure of logic or something else. Parts like:
It’s interesting that in this case, Sollecito had taken a strong interest in deviant pornography. I think he would have been really turned on by the idea of setting up a pretty white girl to be raped by a black thug.
Really doesn’t help your case more than simply inflame issues. Moreover, “deviant pornography”, seriously? What fraction of the population watches BDSM themed porn or other forms of non-standard porn? The fraction is orders of magnitude larger than the set of people who murder or arrange form murders. It isn’t even obvious to me that that’s even more common among murderers.
Frankly, I would guess a big part of the problem is that you did not read my post very carefully. Because you seem to be under the impression that I argued that Sollecito’s (alleged) interest in deviant pornography was evidence of guilt.
I even went so far as to put the following at the bottom the post:
Second, please try to respond to the arguments I actually make. I can already imagine some joker saying “Sollecito’s interest in deviant pornography is not evidence that he was a murder!!!” Dude, that’s not the argument I am making. I have no tolerance for people who strawman me.
If the porn is not relevant either way, then it should not be mentioned. Mentioning it in a short piece invites the viewer to interpret it that way or, if they read it so carefully as to (non-)interpret it as you say, it comes off as sheer rhetoric and an attempt to contaminate the reader’s mind with unfounded assertions.
(“Ladies and gentleman of the jury, I would like you to imagine the defendant late one night holding down his daughter and raping her repeatedly in every orifice in defiance of every law of God and man. There is of course no evidence he has actually done this and we are here to discuss his tax evasion, but I simply wanted you to imagine it for a little bit. Moving on to the first tax filing exhibit...”)
If anything, I would say that the porn is evidence against Sollecito’s guilt. After all, considering how common “black guy rapes white girl” porn is, if that’s something he was interested in seeing and his porn viewing is indicative of his interests, then it would be more reasonable to expect him to have it than not.
Anyway, the idea that the porn could be not evidence, but something to show a plausible scenario, is simply nonsense. The prior probability for Sollecito’s guilt reflects all possible scenarios in which Sollecito could have been involved, and is based on our best available knowledge of how often people in his circumstances commit the sort of crime attributed to him. Any meaningful information must either show that our prior was inappropriate (people in Sollecito’s reference class commit this sort of crime more often than we thought) or show that Sollecito in particular was more likely to have committed this particular crime. Brazil disavowed its relevance in the latter respect, and it’s obviously not relevant in the former.
If the porn is not relevant either way, then it should not be mentioned.
I think it’s relevant because it helps to show that there is a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox murders her roommate; that it’s not like asserting that Elvis was actually an extra-terrestrial.
It’s the same reason I mentioned the Janet Chandler murder. The fact that one white girl took part in the rape and murder of another white girl in Michigan in the 70s is not evidence that Knox is guilty either. Again, it just helps to show that such a scenario is remotely plausible.
I would hope and expect that many of the posters on this board will accept this point about remote plausibility without any narrative. Such people should feel free to ignore that part of my blog post.
I think you’ve run afoul of the principle of charity here, in that your piece was taken as an argumentative essay and thus it was charitable to assume that each part of it was intended to support your stated conclusion. In future it would help a lot if you made your conclusions explicit at each stage of the argument rather than leaving them implicit because otherwise readers are forced to guess at what you think the evidence means.
Having read your piece I also think that you’re reasoning from some false premises. If you read enough of the popular material on the internet about this case it becomes evident fairly quickly that in pro-guilt circles the evidence has taken on a life of its own and grown in the telling.
There is no actual evidence that Sollecito had ” a strong interest in deviant pornography”, although plenty of sites would claim that. There is evidence he was once in possession of one film clip involving bestiality in his university years, which is not proof of a strong interest, and evidence he was in possession of a mainstream and unremarkable manga book, but that’s the extent of the evidence that he had any deviant sexual tendencies.
Similarly there was no evidence Amanda Knox had a promiscuous lifestyle by student standards nor that Knox had numerous male visitors. Knox gave a complete list of her lifetime sexual partners to the police when they (falsely) told her she had tested HIV+, and she wasn’t any more promiscuous than your average student.
It’s simply not true that Knox and Sollecito called the police after the police had already arrived. That misconception arose due to incorrect police testimony but it was later cleared up.
There was never any evidence that the break-in at the house was staged and the appeal court exonerated Knox and Sollecito of those charges on the grounds that particular crime had never in fact happened.
To your credit you state clearly that you are basing your opinion on popular sources and that you are open to the possibility that your evidence is faulty, and it’s no sin to reason rigorously from false premises and get to a false conclusion.
(By contrast the evidence of egregious police misconduct in the Knox case is very strong indeed. Italy is a curiosity in that it has no meaningful police oversight body and hence the police can get away with virtually anything. In every other First World country the relevant misconduct investigation body would have their metaphorical foot right up the Perugian authorities’ collective metaphorical posterior by now).
I think you’ve run afoul of the principle of charity here, in that your piece was taken as an argumentative essay and thus it was charitable to assume that each part of it was intended to support your stated conclusion. In future it would help a lot if you made your conclusions explicit at each stage of the argument rather than leaving them implicit because otherwise readers are forced to guess at what you think the evidence means.
I would say it doesn’t get much more explicit than this:
Of course, none of the above is proof or even evidence that Knox was involved, it’s pure speculation and I would write it off if there weren’t such compelling evidence against Knox.
In fact, I would go so far as to suspect that some folks here are going on the principle of anti-charity, i.e. looking for the easiest way to attack my post while ignoring the core argument.
Having read your piece I also think that you’re reasoning from some false premises.
Well let’s discuss them then.
There is no actual evidence that Sollecito had ” a strong interest in deviant pornography”,
I would say that having been in possession of a bestiality film as well as “comic books that ’mixed pornography and horror‛” is pretty good evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography. I’m not sure that it matters, since Sollecito’s alleged interest in deviant pornography is not central to my argument. But perhaps it’s worth discussing.
You seem to dispute that Sollecito was in the possession of such comic books (plural.) Do you happen to have a cite and a link? I am going by the police report as quoted on page 103 of the sentencing report.
Similarly there was no evidence Amanda Knox had a promiscuous lifestyle by student standards nor that Knox had numerous male visitors
I’m not sure what “promiscuous lifestyle by student standards” means. According to one report I read (ETA: this morning), Knox had sex with 3 men after her arrival in Italy and 4 prior. Disagree?
As far as male visitors goes I was able to find this quote:
“Another friend, Robyn Butterworth talked about how their friend Meredith felt awkward because Knox didn’t flush the toilet. All of the girls recalled Meredith talking about how Knox brought strange men home and how she kept in the bathroom a transparent tote bag with condoms and a pink vibrator shaped like a rabbit.
I’m not sure what “numerous” means to you, but it seems clear to me that at a minimum, there is evidence to believe that Knox engaged in sexual activities which Kercher would have resented and perceived as slutty. Agreed?
It’s simply not true that Knox and Sollecito called the police after the police had already arrived. That misconception arose due to incorrect police testimony but it was later cleared up.
Well in your view, when did the police arrive? And more importantly, at the time the police arrived, were Knox and Sollecito concerned about Kercher’s absence? If you look at the evidence carefully, you will see that there is no good answer for this question which is consistent with Knox being innocent.
Also, do you agree that Sollecito at one point stated to police that he had not called the police at the time the police showed up?
There was never any evidence that the break-in at the house was staged
That’s simply not true. For example, Romanelli apparently testified to finding glass on top of her dislodged belongings. She also testified that nothing was taken. And Sollecito told the police that nothing was taken before he should have known it. Now, you may want to debate the strength of this evidence, but it’s still evidence that the break-in was staged.
and it’s no sin to reason rigorously from false premises and get to a false conclusion.
I agree. Could you please share your own sources? Maybe we can figure out which of us (perhaps both) are reasoning from false premises.
As far as sources go, it’s just a fact that so far you have provided few sources and those were vague. I’m happy to take part in a conversation where we each cite our sources properly, or where neither do, but not an asymmetrical one where I am obliged to cite sources and you are not.
I would say that having been in possession of a bestiality film as well as “comic books that ’mixed pornography and horror‛” is pretty good evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography.
I wouldn’t say that at all. Potential alternative reasons for being in possession of a bestiality film clip include curiosity, desire to shock, or an interest in deviant pornography which does not rise to the level of “strong”. The comic book in question was ‘Blood: The Last Vampire’ which is such a mainstream affair that the animated movie shows regularly on the public broadcasting channel SBS where I live in Australia.
If Sollecito had been found to have a few gigabytes of rape and BDSM porn on his hard drive I would take that to be evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography. One clip he possessed once in the past and a mundane comic book do not to my mind constitute strong evidence.
I’m not sure what “numerous” means to you, but it seems clear to me that at a minimum, there is evidence to believe that Knox engaged in sexual activities which Kercher would have resented and perceived as slutty. Agreed?
Well no, not based on that evidence. To begin with this was court testimony from long after the murder, from people who have had over a year to cherry-pick anything Meredith could have said at any time which could be taken as evidence of friction between Knox and Kercher. You have to avoid the base rate fallacy here: What are the odds that we would hear testimony like this if there was no serious animosity between the two, under these circumstances? I’d say pretty good.
Bear in mind that if the two had ever, say, had a nasty argument or one had stolen the other’s clothes or anything more serious had ever occurred we would be hearing about that instead. For students living together if the worst instances of friction anyone can recall are complaints about monotonous guitar practice, a transparent toiletries bag and (as I recall) a single instance of Knox bringing a strange man home, who she did not (as far as we can ascertain from her list of sexual contacts) sleep with, then they probably got along quite well.
By all accounts dating from before the murder the two got on well, went on outings together and were friends.
Well in your view, when did the police arrive? And more importantly, at the time the police arrived, were Knox and Sollecito concerned about Kercher’s absence? If you look at the evidence carefully, you will see that there is no good answer for this question which is consistent with Knox being innocent.
The postal police arrived at 13:00 as established by security camera evidence. The carabinieri arrived at 13:34. Raffaele called the police at 12:51. Knox and Sollecito had been trying to find out where Meredith was and whether she was okay from 12:07 onwards as established by phone records.
The postal police incorrectly claimed they had arrived at 12:35 but this was based on their unassisted recollection and was falsified by the security camera nearby.
That’s simply not true. For example, Romanelli apparently testified to finding glass on top of her dislodged belongings. She also testified that nothing was taken. And Sollecito told the police that nothing was taken before he should have known it.
She also testified to finding glass under some of her belongings and mixed through them, and since some things were in fact taken (money and mobile phones) the fact that some things were not taken is not evidence for staging over a real break-in. Sollecito did state that nothing was taken but at that stage he did not know anything had been taken, and while an ideal rationalist with time to think would have said “I am aware of no evidence anything was taken” a university student under stress being imprecise is not more consistent with guilt than innocence.
There were also scuff marks on the wall outside consistent with someone climbing in, freshly exposed brickwork consistent with someone chipping the wall while climbing in, white powdery deposits in Filomena’s room consistent with someone having scuffed their feet on the white wall outside while climbing in, and several large chunks of glass on the outside windowsill consistent with someone positioned on the window sill manually enlarging the hole in the glass to access the window’s latch. This is all evident from photographs of the crime scene yet the police inexplicably testified that there was no evidence of a break-in.
The comic book in question was ‘Blood: The Last Vampire’ which is such a mainstream affair that the animated movie shows regularly on the public broadcasting channel SBS where I live in Australia.
Wait, that was what was being referenced when Brazil quoted
“comic books that ’mixed pornography and horror‛”
‽ My high school anime club showed the movie of that twice (we ran under schedule one day) so I remember it well… Good grief. And Brazil is still arguing. I don’t know why you guys are still bothering—I’m not going to, even if it seems tempting.
I’m happy to take part in a conversation where we each cite our sources properly, or where neither do, but not an asymmetrical one where I am obliged to cite sources and you are not.
The way I do things with sources is that if somebody represents to me that he is seriously skeptical of a claim I have made, I will normally try to find a source. Similarly, I will not ask for a source (or cite) unless I am seriously skeptical of a claim which has been made. The reason I do things this way is because I do think in general people should provide sources (or cites) to back up their claims, but at the same time I have encountered problems in online debate with people who demand cites for claims which they don’t seriously dispute, presumably just to distract the discussion from the critical issues. (Also, keep in mind that for some claims, general knowledge, simple observation, and common sense are potentially reasonable or adequate sources. )
So the upshot is that I will try to find and provide a cite or source for any claim I make if you represent to me that you are seriously skeptical of the claim.
With that out of the way, I am seriously skeptical of your apparent claim that Sollecito was in the possession of a “mainstream and unremarkable manga book” and not multiple “comic books that mixed pornography and horror.” I have provided a cite for my position, now please provide a cite for yours.
Well no, not based on that evidence.
I’m not sure I understand your point.
Do you agree that there was testimony that Kercher advised her friends that Knox had brought “strange men [plural]” over?
Do you agree that such testimony is evidence (although perhaps not proof) that Knox did in fact bring multiple men to the residence?
Based on your knowledge of human nature, do you agree that there is a pretty good chance that Kercher would have resented such behavior?
The postal police arrived at 13:00 as established by security camera evidence.
Can you give me a cite for this please? (I am seriously skeptical)
Raffaele called the police at 12:51. Knox and Sollecito had been trying to find out where Meredith was and whether she was okay from 12:07 onwards as established by phone records.
Ok, then here’s a couple questions for you:
If Knox and Sollecito were concerned about Kercher’s absence when the postal police arrived, why did Knox (apparently) advise them that Kercher normally kept her door locked?
Why did Sollecito (apparently) later admit to the authorities that he had not yet called the police with the postal police showed up?
(And yes, I will provide sources for this stuff if you represent to me that you are seriously skeptical.)
She also testified to finding glass under some of her belongings
I’m not sure what your point is here. Do you dispute that she testified to finding glass on top of some of her belongings? Do you dispute that this is evidence (evidence, not conclusive proof) of a staged break-in?
some things were in fact taken (money and mobile phones) the fact that some things were not taken
Well do you agree that (1) the evidence seems to indicate that nothing was taken from Romenelli’s room; and (2) according to Sollecito’s story, he had seen Romanelli’s room but not Kercher’s room at that point?
a university student under stress being imprecise is not more consistent with guilt than innocence.
Well was he asked about it or did he volunteer it? As far as I know, he first volunteered that there was no theft and then when asked if anything was taken, he said “no.” I could understand him giving an imprecise answer if asked about it, but why would he volunteer that nothing was taken?
There were also scuff marks on the wall outside consistent with someone climbing in,
Again, I am seriously skeptical of this claim. Please back it up with a quote, link, and cite.
Yes, I saw that, but I found it to be as either disingenuous or at best unhelpful. If it is irrelevant then it shouldn’t be mentioned. In context if you are using it for evidence then claiming you aren’t isn’t helpful and simply brings up something that will make people annoyed.
The same thing could be said about my mention of the Janet Chandler murder. The fact that one white girl helped to rape and murder another white girl (who was her roommate) back in the 70s in Michigan is not evidence of Knox’s guilt.
But as I mentioned in the blog post, I think both are helpful to show a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox is guilty.
If you disagree, then I think that under the “principle of charity,” you should simply ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 (which you apparently consider to be irrelevant, inflammatory fluff) and consider the core of my argument.
Yes, and the mention of the Chandler case also falls into the same category.
both are helpful to show a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox is guilty.
Does something increase plausibility or show a plausible scenario? Then it is evidence. If it doesn’t increase plausibility then it isn’t evidence. You can’t have it both ways.
Well, new information could suggest that you applied the wrong prior. If you’re trying to calculate the likelihood of a person’s guilt, and you find that the crime is more common than you originally thought, you’ll have to assign a higher probability of guilt, but you could reasonably say that it’s not evidence of guilt, because you’re revising P(A) rather than introducing a new (B).
This could be said to apply to the mention of the Chandler case, if you don’t have any information on how common such crimes are that would screen it off, but it clearly does not apply to the porn.
Does something increase plausibility or show a plausible scenario? Then it is evidence.
Well sure if you want to take a broad view of what constitutes “evidence,” then everything in my scenario constitutes “evidence.” (ETA: I would take a slightly narrower view, but perhaps it makes sense to agree on a definition.)
Similarly, by your standard the fact that had had sex with at least 7 men by the age of 20 is “evidence.” Why? First, because it raises the probability that she suffers from borderline personality disorder and therefore is lacking in empathy. Someone lacking in empathy is more likely to take part in a serious crime against another person. Second, because it raises the probability that she had male visitors which would have increased tension between her and Kercher, increasing the chances that she had a motive.
Anyway, I have a question for you: Why do you continue to ignore my core argument for Knox’s guilt?
Similarly, by your standard the fact that had had sex with at least 7 men by the age of 20 is “evidence.” Why? First, because it raises the probability that she suffers from borderline personality disorder and therefore is lacking in empathy.
Yes, this is all evidence according to the Bayesian definition. Calling E evidence (with respect to prior knowledge X) for a proposition H just means that p(H | E & X) > p(H | X). That is why quantifying evidence is so important. Just how much evidence is it? If all the evidence you offer raises the probability of H by only a few percent from a very low prior, then it should have practically no effect on how we treat Knox.
Yes, this is all evidence according to the Bayesian definition. Calling E evidence (with respect to prior knowledge X) for a proposition H just means that p(H | E & X) > p(H | X). That is why quantifying evidence is so important. Just how much evidence is it? If all the evidence you offer raises the probability of H by only a few percent from a very low prior, then it should have practically no effect on how we treat Knox.
I basically agree, but sometimes it’s helpful to have a story or narrative or illustration before jumping in to look at the important evidence. That’s just how the human mind works, or at least most peoples’ minds. I realize this can be dangerous, for example it can lead to a “conjunction fallacy,” but I was careful to lable my narrative as speculation.
Just today I was browsing this web site and I came across an article called “Existential Risk” which was complete with (1) a picture of the Earth; (2) a likely apocryphal story about a man who singlehandedly prevented nuclear war; and (3) a picture of a Stanford torus. Is this cheap emotional manipulation? Perhaps, but again, I think this kind of story-telling can be useful to get the mind ready to focus on the meat of the argument.
One can ask what the likelihood is that we are reaching a critical juncture where the decisions and dilligence of just a few humans in the artificial intelligence community will have a massive impact on the future of humanity. Strictly speaking, the fact that some Russian dude did (or didn’t) singlehandedly prevent a nuclear war shouldn’t have much impact on our estimate of this probability. But I think it still might be worth mentioning to demonstrate the plausibility of the claim that one person can have a big impact.
In the same way, I think it’s worth mentioning the Janet Chandler case from the 70s. But again, if you object to this approach, just ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 of my blog post.
In the same way, I think it’s worth mentioning the Janet Chandler case from the 70s. But again, if you object to this approach, just ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 of my blog post.
I agree that it’s worth mentioning Janet Chandler. It would be better to treat it seriously as evidence, rather than merely as a narrative framing device. To treat it seriously as evidence, you should use it to help establish a prior probability for Knox’s guilt (like Desrtopa did).
It would be better to treat it seriously as evidence, rather than merely as a narrative framing device. To treat it seriously as evidence, you should use it to help establish a prior probability for Knox’s guilt
It seems to me that “narrative framing device” is basically a poor man’s method of estimating a prior probability. Here’s what I said in my blog post:
The point is that there are levels of extraordinary. Claiming that Knox participated in her roommate’s murder is not like claiming that the president is actually an extra-terrestrial from Mars.
Of course in terms of assessing probabilities, it might be better if there were a lot of precedents, for example in a situation where a husband is suspected of killing his wife. But here there’s not a lot to go on.
It seems you are unable to answer two questions which would have been pretty easy if you understood the case against Knox and Sollecito and were still satisfied of their innocence. To be sure, they are komponisto-disingenuous questions. But still, why not simply try to answer them anyway?
It’s a very effective rhetorical device to trick the opponent into saying a complicated thing, and then respond with a simple thing. I’m not saying this is what you are attempting, but it could well seem that you are attempting this.
For example homeopaths try to steer conversations about homeopathy so that the skeptic says a lot of complicated things about Avogadro’s Number and the minute time-scale on which water molecule structures persist and the need for double-blinded, placebo-controlled trials and then the homeopath gets to say “Yes, well, it miraculously cured my cat’s cataracts and that’s all I need to know”.
If you tried to explain what evidence you have with regard to when Knox first became concerned about Kercher’s absence, and with regard to when Sollecito and Knox first called the police, and how you conclude from this evidence that they are guilty, you would be put in the position of saying the complicated thing. Other people could then respond with the simple thing, which I predict would be “none of that proves anything”.
Whereas if you make the other person say the complicated thing, then you could respond with a pithy rhetorical question and gain the rhetorical advantage.
I honestly cannot see how the truth-seeking process benefits from you not presenting your evidence. You seem to be taking the discussion to the level of a status battle over who has personal authority and I think we should try to avoid that outcome.
(1) When did Knox first become concerned about Kercher’s absence?
(2) When did Sollecito and Knox first call the police and why?
These questions are disingenuous and pointless. If you think the answers to them are incriminating to Knox and Sollecito, then you should just state (what you believe to be) the answers and explain why they are incriminating. This is what you would do if you were arguing honestly (instead of trying to “catch” your opponent in a mistake), and it would also save time.
(3) If it turns out that the ransacking of Romanelli’s room was a staged burglary, do you agree that this is decent evidence against Knox?
Preface: I disagree with brazil about basically everything he says regarding Knox and reject most of the reasoning he uses to try to argue his case. But:
These questions are disingenuous and pointless.
Disingenuous does not apply to these questions in this context. There is no feigning of naivety, ignorance or unsophistication. The questions are rhetorical, pretentious, annoying, misguided, of dubious relevance and wrapped up with a tad of snide—but not disingenuous.
I do not consider the distinction you are drawing important enough to restrict my use of the term “disingenuous”. As far as I am concerned the questions themselves imply ignorance of the answers, and this is the basis on which the term was used. You are free to disapprove (and your disapproval is noted), but I shan’t be drawn into a status battle over this issue.
You are free to disapprove (and your disapproval is noted), but I shan’t be drawn into a status battle over this issue.
Excuse me? While there is an unfortunate and unavoidable status implication in the mere willingness to correct someone rather than being too intimidated by the potential threat they may pose I went to a lot of trouble to ameliorate that in the correction in question. I prefaced with an indication of full support for you in your status battle with brazil then offered a whole stream of applicable substitute negative labels for brazil’s rheotorical ploy to show that I am not trying to subvert the core of the message “brazil should have lowered status because of what he said to kompo”—because the latter would, in fact, seem appropriate.
The above being the case it actually kind of hurts to be portrayed as trying to ‘draw you into a status battle’. The opening salvo in any such battle would be the parent and I obviously wouldn’t draw it out beyond this one reply. I could only stand to lose by such an engagement.
Regarding the calling of people disingenuous there probably isn’t a problem here—I expect you consider the back and forth you’ve had with brazil over the subject to have gone on long enough. Obviously in general I am always likely to object if somewhat is falsely accused of being disingenuous. It would be outright bizarre if I didn’t when I have already done so when the unjustly accused is someone I consider a troll-minus-malicious-intent. In the context of lesswrong disingenuousness is perhaps one of the most dire things you can accuse someone of!
The above being the case it actually kind of hurts to be portrayed as trying to ‘draw you into a status battle’.
As it happens I gave serious consideration to rewording or dropping the last line, but didn’t get to it in time. It was more heavy-handed than I intended, sorry. But, in fairness to myself, I would point out that the future tense was used, and that there was no intended implication of inappropriate aggression on your part in the preceding exchange. I was, in other words, retreating from a danger that I foresaw (for whose existence I am as surely to blame as anyone, being as I am a human).
I had intended only to communicate that I wasn’t terribly interested in arguing about the meaning of “disingenuous” in this particular context at this particular moment, nothing more. (I’ll mention that I had also considered the wording: “drawn into a status battle with an ally...)
I do not consider the distinction you are drawing important enough to restrict my use of the term “disingenuous”. As far as I am concerned the questions themselves imply ignorance of the answers, and this is the basis on which the term was used.
The questions may have been posed as Socratic questions rather than disingenuous or rhetorical questions.
However the Socratic method is a pedagogical device. It’s not meant to be a tactic used to get out of stating what your argument or beliefs really are when trying to arrive at the truth and it does seem to me that it would save time if brazil84just stated whatever evidence they have and what conclusions they draw from it.
The questions may have been posed as Socratic questions...However the Socratic method is a pedagogical device.
Indeed; hence using it amounts to an assertion of higher status like that of teacher over pupil. This would be another ground on which to object to brazil’s questions.
I disagree, because I suspect that just like desrtopa, bigjeff5 does not understand the case against Knox. If he is unable to answer these questions, it will confirm my suspicions. At the moment, I am not interested in debating Knox’s guilt with biggjeff5 if he hasn’t bothered to study and understand the evidence against her.
Of course it is
Well do you agree that there is decent (if not compelling) evidence that the burglary was staged? For example (1) Romanelli’s testimony that she found glass on top of her disturbed items; (2) Romanelli’s testimony that nothing was taken from her room; and (3) Sollecito’s apparent statement to the police (before Romanelli returned) that there had been a burglary but nothing was taken?
What would not make sense is 90% for all three and 90% for Guede with or without the others.
Yes, I think that’s what I meant. I think I can make things simpler by laying out 4 possibilities:
(1) Guede, Knox, and Sollecito were all involved in the murder;
(2) Guede was involved in the murder but not Knox or Sollecito;
(3) Guede was not involved in the murder but Knox and Sollecito were;
(4) None of Guede, Knox, or Sollecito were involved in the murder.
I think that the probability of (1) is roughly 90%; (2) is roughly 9+%; (3) is negligible; and (4) is negligible.
Make sense?
(I also think that the chances that Knox was involved but not Sollecito or vice versa are negligible)
I disagree, because I suspect that just like desrtopa, bigjeff5 does not understand the case against Knox. If he is unable to answer these questions, it will confirm my suspicions.
Exactly. So, far from “disagreeing”, you admit that your questions were disingenuous.
Well do you agree that there is decent (if not compelling) evidence that the burglary was staged?
No.
For example (1) Romanelli’s testimony that she found glass on top of her disturbed items; (2) Romanelli’s testimony that nothing was taken from her room; and (3) Sollecito’s apparent statement to the police (before Romanelli returned) that there had been a burglary but nothing was taken?
You need evidence that is thousands of times more likely in the case of staging than in the case of an authentic burglary. The notion that any of those items comes anywhere close to meeting such a standard is simply ridiculous.
So, far from “disagreeing”, you admit that your questions were disingenuous.
I clearly prefaced my questions with the following:
Anyway, I disagree with you that this is the strongest piece of evidence against Knox and I think I can demonstrate it to you if you will indulge me by answering (or trying to answer) a few questions:
So it was pretty clear to any reasonable person that I was asking the questions not simply to improve my understanding. Agree?
You need evidence that is thousands of times more likely in the case of staging than in the case of an authentic burglary.
First, I would ask you why that is.
Second, let’s break it down a bit: In your view, how much more likely is it that Romanelli would have discovered glass on top of her disturbed items in the case of a staged burglarly than in a legitimate one?
Next, how much more likely is it that nothing would be taken in the case of a staged burglary than a legitimate one?
So it was pretty clear to any reasonable person that I was asking the questions not simply to improve my understanding.
Yes, your disingenuousness was indeed transparent.
If you thought there was some stronger piece of evidence than what your interlocutor mentioned, you should simply have stated it rather than quizzing the other person.
You need evidence that is thousands of times more likely in the case of staging than in the case of an authentic burglary.
Sorry, no. You are the contrarian here; the onus is on you to explain your position. My view is well known by now; I’ve explained it in a number of posts and comments. Just for the record, my current probability of guilt for Knox and Sollecito is between 0.0001 and 0.001, updated from a prior of between 0.00001 and 0.0001; if you want numerical bounds on my likelihood ratios, you can do the arithmetic yourself.
Yes, your disingenuousness was indeed transparent.
Let’s see if I have this straight: According to you, any question which is for rhetorical, testing, or socratic purposes is “disingenuous” even if the nature of the question is made clear from the beginning? Is that what you are saying?
Read the post I linked,
I’m not sure I see your point. It seems that your “thousands of times more likely” comes from the observation that the prior probability of Knox’s guilt is pretty low. But the exact same thing could be said in connection with Knox’s “confession” and in any event, the unlikelihood of the various evidence resulting from a bona fide break-in would appear to counterbalance the low prior probability.
Sorry, no. You are the contrarian here; the onus is on you to explain your position.
I’m not sure it needs to go by the majority. But anyway, if you don’t want to explain your position, that’s fine by me. I was trying to get down to the nub of our disagreement.
I was trying to get down to the nub of our disagreement.
The nub of our disagreement is quite clearly identifiable: you apparently believe that certain testimony about the position of glass fragments (contrary to the photographic evidence, incidentally) is thousands of times less likely to occur in the case of an actual burglary than in the case of fake one. More generally, you are of the opinion that circumstantial and psychological evidence of the sort produced in this case is powerful enough to overcome not only the incredibly low prior probability of guilt for Knox and Sollecito, but also the total lack of any (significant, non-discredited) physical evidence tying them to the crime, the failure of Guede to implicate them until he knew they were suspects, and the fact that Kercher had both a full stomach and an empty duodenum at death, and thus almost certainly died before 9:30 pm, while Sollecito’s computer was in use at his apartment.
Needless to say, I think this is sheer madness. In my view, you are vastly, hugely overconfident in your model of human behavior. However, in the unlikely event that you can actually produce a compelling argument for why I should (for example) regard the presence of glass on top of clothes as 30-decibel evidence in favor of the hypothesis that Knox and Sollecito staged the burglary over the hypothesis that there was an authentic burglary committed by known burglar Rudy Guede, I am all ears.
Really, however, I’m long past the point where I’m ready to write you off as an incorrigible clacker.
you apparently believe that certain testimony about the position of glass fragments (contrary to the photographic evidence, incidentally) is thousands of times less likely to occur in the case of an actual burglary than in the case of fake one.
Actually I don’t believe that. My estimate is somewhere between 10 and 100. It seems you refuse to tell me yours.
the fact that Kercher had both a full stomach and an empty duodenum at death, and thus almost certainly died before 9:30 pm, while Sollecito’s computer was in use at his apartment.
Where are you getting this from?
According to my research
(1) Sollecito’s computer stopped being used at 9:10pm
(2) Sollecito’s own expert witness—Professor Introna—testified that based on the stomach and duodenum contents, the time of death was between 9:30 pm and 10:30pm.
(3) Professor Bacci, the prosecution’s expert, testified (based on the same digestive issues) that the time of death was between 9:00 to 9:30 pm and 11:00pm to midnight.
Do you disagree with any of this? Because it looks to me like you are suffering from a massive case of confirmation bias. To be sure, I got items (2) and (3) from the sentencing report. But I have a really hard time believing that the report would flat out lie about peoples’ testimony.
And by the way, I would still like an answer to my earlier question:
According to you, any question which is for rhetorical, testing, or socratic purposes is “disingenuous” even if the nature of the question is made clear from the beginning? Is that what you are saying?
Next, how much more likely is it that nothing would be taken in the case of a staged burglary than a legitimate one?
Strictly speaking, this is not evidence we possess. The evidence we possess is that it is reported that nothing was taken. An explanation that involves things being taken but a false report otherwise still fits our observations. Whether this moves the probabilities much, I have too little knowledge of the other facts of the case to say. (Strictly speaking, the facts could even contradict my objection—if, for instance, there was an audit of the apartment conducted by a reliable third party immediately prior to the burglary. I think that unlikely enough to discount, though...)
Strictly speaking, this is not evidence we possess.
I agree. (One could also say that strictly speaking we don’t know that Knox was in Italy at the time of the murder; we don’t even know if there really is a girl named Amanda Knox.)
ETA: One should of course consider the possibility that much of the evidence against Knox is simply fraudulent.
That’s speaking a little more strictly than relevant, I think. My point was that, in the general case, there can be reasons that nothing was reported stolen other than that nothing was reported stolen. “He took my 10 lbs of cocaine” is something someone would be reluctant to tell the police, though I might expect it to nonetheless come out in a murder trial. Alternatively, something might have been taken that the person had forgotten they were in possession of. Adjudge for yourself how likely either of these explanations is, but they should be considered—along with any others that run along similar lines. Asking strictly about the probability of a real vs. staged break-in based on the fact that nothing is taken might be misleading.
That’s speaking a little more strictly than relevant, I think. My point was that, in the general case, there can be reasons that nothing was reported stolen other than that nothing was reported stolen
I agree, and one should of course take Romanelli’s testimony with a grain of salt. She might be forgetful; she might have been coached to give testimony damaging to Knox; and so forth.
However, keep in mind that the question on the table is whether the strongest (piece of?) evidence against Knox is her statement to the police that she was at the apartment at the time of the murder. For these purposes, I think it’s reasonable to accept Romanelli’s testimony at face value.
I would say moderately familiar. But most of my knowledge is based on gwern’s posts on the case. Are there significant facts not mentioned in the posts?
What evidence do you believe is not well understood?
Mainly, the inconsistencies in stories and timelines and the lies to the authorities. You can learn about all of this stuff on the site I mentioned. Or, if you prefer, I think I can demonstrate it to you through a series of komponisto-disingenous questions. A kind of gentle cross examination, if you will.
You say you are a lawyer. When you write briefs, do you write them in rhetorical questions?
Generally not. So what? This is not a brief.
(Interestingly, I cross-examine witnesses a lot more than I write briefs. When you cross-examine someone, you make your point by asking questions. Typically, the questioner is not asking the questions to get information but instead to make a point. i.e. the questions are komponisto-disingenuous. I’d love to see komponisto in the witness box, whining about the “disingenuous” questions being asked of him by the attorneys. Anyway, I think questioning someone can be a very effective way to make your point. However, if you don’t feel like playing that game, I certainly cannot force you.)
There are several interesting characteristics of cross-examination:
1) The witness is hostile to your case, which is to say that you are not trying to persuade the witness of anything.
2) The audience is the jury (i.e. a third party to the dialogue). You might be trying to elicit facts from the witness that you can’t demonstrate any other way. Or you might be trying to show that the witness is not worthy of belief, perhaps because of bias, lack of knowledge, unworthiness of belief, or suchlike.
3) The primary focus of questioning witnesses is to resolve questions of fact.
None of those characteristics are particularly parallel to a debate on a message board. We aren’t hostile to your case, we are interested in your points. We are the audience, not the source of the facts. We aren’t trying to act in bad faith. And we aren’t trying to find out the facts. We are trying to find out the significance of the facts.
Finding the significance of the facts is applying law to fact. That’s just not the purpose of cross-examination.
In short, placing us in the witness stand is the wrong move. Try treating us like opposing counsel. I’m doubtful that rhetorical questions have a major place in your settlement negotiations. If you were arguing a motion in front of a judge, disingenuous would be the nicest thing she would call to you if you answered her question with a question every time. This is not a legal brief, but it’s more like a brief than questioning a witness.
If you were arguing a motion in front of a judge, disingenuous would be the nicest thing she would call to you if you answered her question with a question every time.
For example, she could call you a ‘contemnor’. I just learned that word yesterday. I can’t remember why. Oh yes, I was wikipediaing my way from “methods of suicide” through “suicide by cop” through one jurisdiction where it can be done easily due to the applicable punishment for contempt of court.
The witness is hostile to your case, which is to say that you are not trying to persuade the witness of anything.
That’s not entirely true. Sometimes you get the witness to finally concede a key point. Besides which, having questioned over a thousand hostile witnesses and watched hundreds of message board debates, I can say that the level of hostility is slightly higher in message board debates.
Anyway, I am not saying that a message board debate necessarily is, or should be, like cross-examination. I am simply saying that asking questions is often a very effective way to make a point. It can also be very useful in getting to the nub of a disagreement.
Finding the significance of the facts is applying law to fact. That’s just not the purpose of cross-examination.
That’s not true. The main interest here is in determining Knox’s actions, i.e. whether she was involved in the murder. Not the legal significance of those actions, for example whether she is guilty of the Italian equivalent of manslaughter.
Let’s suppose for the sake of argument that after Knox was convicted, some procedural flaw in the proceedings is uncovered, for example they used 5 jurors instead of 6, and therefore her conviction must be thrown out. It shouldn’t have much of an effect on this discussion.
In short, placing us in the witness stand is the wrong move.
Are you disputing that asking questions can be an effective way to make a point? ;)
I’m doubtful that rhetorical questions have a major place in your settlement negotiations.
I use them all the time and they are just as effective as any other logical persuasive technique. None of which works all that well on opposing attorneys. Generally speaking, I don’t get people to settle cases by persuading them I am right. The kind of people who are open to this sort of persuasion don’t really need it because they can do their own research and come to a reasonable conclusion. More emotional arguments work far better to persuade people to settle cases.
I think a substantial part of why brazil is getting a poor reception here is that he’s trying to treat this debate as if he’s cross examining witnesses in order to persuade a jury, but the question of what is liable to persuade a jury is very different from what establishes a proposition as more or less likely. In general the population of this site is well aware of the sort of rhetorical techniques which can be used to convince people more effectively without introducing more valid evidence, and have a dim view of having them used on them, particularly in a way that’s so transparent as to come across as patronizing.
Also, I think I’m being passive aggressive by posting this in response to your comment when you’re not the one who has any need to read it, but at this point I’d rather be passive aggressive if it means less risk of getting sucked back into a debate with brazil.
I agree that some part of the negative response to brazil is his reliance on Dark Arts persuasion techniques.
But I think the bigger part of the negative response is his refusal to lay out and defend what he actually thinks. It has become quite aggravating.
In law, it is always possible to create a coherent counter-argument by changing the method of analysis. Appealing to the purpose of a rule can easily lead to a more favorable result. If not, then the literal text may be more favorable. Etc. But law is seldom concerned with your true rejection because it is generally quite obvious (i.e. “I don’t want to comply with that regulation” or “I don’t want to go to prison”).
But we genuinely want to reach better understanding, so generating coherent counter-arguments to our points gets really annoying when the speaker doesn’t actually believe the counter-argument. If brazil had a theory and presented it coherently, he would not give the impression that he was trying to yank our chains.
I agree that some part of the negative response to brazil is his reliance on Dark Arts persuasion techniques.
But I think the bigger part of the negative response is his refusal to lay out and defend what he actually thinks. It has become quite aggravating.
I agree that it’s aggravating, and I called him out on it earlier myself, but I think it’s also a rhetorical technique. By not saying what he thinks straight out, and continually asking more questions, brazil can wait for his interlocutor to produce an answer he can hold up as damning and use that as an excuse to dismiss their whole case. It’s a good way to convince a jury to discount someone’s testimony, but very bad for resolving questions of evidence.
You realize that cross-examination is about putting your words in the witness’s mouth, right?
Not necessarily. Sometimes more open-ended questions are appropriate.
Questions on cross-examination are really just sentences. Isn’t that correct?
No.
Each question should articulate a point, shouldn’t it?
Not necessarily.
That point should be clear. Is that a yes? In short, you are trying to show that the witness agrees with the point that you already think is true. Isn’t that correct?
Again, not necessarily.
Moving on. Do you recall our earlier discussion about arguing motions before a judge?
Yes, I think so.
Would you agree that your goal in the motion hearing is to persuade the court that your side of the argument has merit?
Yes.
Regardless of the merits, being rude to the judge would probably not convince the judge to rule in your favor, right?
Agree.
The judge would probably not be happy if you attempted to cross examine her, would she?
I would say it depends on the judge, but generally not.
It would be rude? A little bit passive-aggressive?
I’m not sure “rude” (ETA: or “passive-aggressive”) is the right word, but it’s usually not done.
No further questions.
Ok, my turn now:
Do you agree that it is sometimes very effective to approach a debate by using questions, or to use questions within a debate, either to get to the nub of a dispute or to highlight a critical issue which you adversary may be missing?
If you aren’t trying to make a point, but only to nitpick others, we’re done.
If somebody is making a point, it doesn’t necessarily follow that each and every question they ask articulates a point. For example, they might be nailing down the other side’s position. If you want to include that in “making a point,” then yes, I would agree with you that each question should make a point.
Now please answer my question:
Do you agree that it is sometimes very effective to approach a debate by using questions, or to use questions within a debate, either to get to the nub of a dispute or to highlight a critical issue which you adversary may be missing?
In football (American version), teams will sometimes have a change-of-pace running back. As opposes to the starting running back (A), the change-of-pace back (B) runs with a very different style. Often A is a “power” back, while B is a “speed” back.
The whole purpose of B is to go into the game and take advantage of some defensive tendency in dealing with A. Maybe B makes a huge run. Or maybe the defense over-corrects and A makes some big plays when he comes back into the game. But if your team’s only backs run change-of-pace style, there are two basic possibilities. Maybe your back is an incredible talent. But more likely, your running game is not very good.
To deconstruct the metaphor, statements are A and questions are B. Questions can be incredible. But usually they barely rise to the level of nitpicking. To be clear, that’s a general statement about questions, not directed at anyone in particular.
But if your debate tactics do not rely on statements, then your debate tactics are unlikely to persuade. That’s the point I was making about briefs. And your questions are not incredible. In fact, they would barely function as change-of-pace even if you relied on statements. The tactics you consistently choose are unlikely to work, so it is a fair question to ask whether I correctly understand your goal.
Anyway, if I have the time I will put together a blog post laying out what I think are the most important pieces of evidence and Knox (and Sollecito).
But if your debate tactics do not rely on statements, then your debate tactics are unlikely to persuade
Putting aside the issue of persuasion, do you agree that a simple series of questions can sometimes demonstrate that a position is contradictory; that it doesn’t add up, so to speak?
Is the point you are making that even if I demonstrate something using questions, it’s less persuasive since it annoys people?
I can’t put persuasion to the side. That’s the whole point.
Do you dispute that asking questions is sometimes an effective way of getting to the nub of an issue and/or focusing attention on a critical issue?
Getting to the nub of the issue is a tool in persuasion. But it is not the most important tool, and it isn’t close. When you are debating the naive, getting to the nub of the issue might be most of the work, but that doesn’t make it most important.
Is the point you are making that even if I demonstrate something using questions, it’s less persuasive since it annoys people?
You say the purpose of asking questions is to get to the nub of the issue. I assert that we have gotten to the nub of the issue of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt (i.e. the strength of the evidence). If you think that is not the nub, then you are implying that we are naive.
In other circumstances, that would be quite an insult. But here, we are trying to be Less Wrong. So show us where we are wrong. All your questions do is continue to assert that we are wrong without showing why you think that is true.
Anyway, if I have the time I will put together a blog post laying out what I think are the most important pieces of evidence and Knox (and Sollecito).
That would be fantastic because it would give me a chance to see what ways I might be wrong.
I can’t put persuasion to the side. That’s the whole point.
Getting to the nub of the issue is a tool in persuasion.
I disagree; the point is to find truth, and getting to the nub of the issue (which can often mean “finding the most basic point of disagreement”) is a valuable tool to that end.
Edited to add: In this particular case, where our beliefs on this issue have little opportunity to usefully direct our action, the whole point is to find flaws in our reasoning that drive us away from truth, so we can learn to correct them in more meaningful situations.
I agree that I bundled a number of concepts into “persuasion.” To make it explicit, I used “persuasion” to mean trying to change another person’s mind. Since I aspire to practice the Light Arts, that meant moving the other person’s belief towards truth.
Edited to add: In this particular case, where our beliefs on this issue have little opportunity to usefully direct our action, the whole point is to find flaws in our reasoning that drive us away from truth, so we can learn to correct them in more meaningful situations.
Exactly. Well said. I hope to learn how I err by observing how I fail to persuade.
I don’t mean to suggest that this is never an appropriate approach; I object to your suggestion that this is the only appropriate approach (and in particular in a situation like this, where it is that approach that seems to be breaking down).
It’s not that I disagree with you, so much as I don’t understand.
I could make lots of concessions about how the point you originally quoted is too simplistic. I suspect that you have a particular caveat in mind, and I suspect that I would agree with it.
I made the original statement in the context of explaining to brazil why he’s coming off like a troll.
I can’t put persuasion to the side. That’s the whole point.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true, depending on what you mean by “persuasion” Because it sounds like you might be making the argument that even if I am demonstrating my points effectively, I am not persuading anyone because I am annoying.
Anyway, my question was not komponisto-disingenous. i.e. I honestly would like an answer.
Do you dispute that asking questions is sometimes an effective way of getting to the nub of an issue and/or focusing attention on a critical issue?
It really is a simple yes or no question.
When you are debating the naive, getting to the nub of the issue might be most of the work, but that doesn’t make it most important.
Even assuming that’s true, so what? It’s not an answer to my question.
You say the purpose of asking questions is to get to the nub of the issue.
And also to highlight critical issues.
I assert that we have gotten to the nub of the issue of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt (i.e. the strength of the evidence).
That’s not true at all. “the strength of the evidence” is composed of dozens of sub-issues. For example, the question of the time of death based on the state of Kercher’s digestive system.
All your questions do is continue to assert that we are wrong without showing why you think that is true.
That’s not true either. My questions have shown that various people are unfamiliar with the important facts concerning the case.
I do agree it would be better (in terms of arguing for Knox’s guilt) if I laid out those important facts and I will do so (ETA: In a blog post) if I have the time. But there is also an issue of economy. I’m not thrilled about spending the time to educate people about the case if they have not done their basic homework. Making my case by asking questions forces people to do the same simple research I have done, such as reading a few posts from the anti-Knox site which was linked in the very first thread.
I will however lay out the case on a side issue right here and now:
komponisto asserted in another post as follows:
Kercher had both a full stomach and an empty duodenum at death, and thus almost certainly died before 9:30 pm, while Sollecito’s computer was in use at his apartment.
I was a bit surprised to see such a convincing-sounding argument which I had not heard before, so I decided to look into it. What I found is this:
According to various sources, Sollecito’s computer use ended at 9:10 not 9:30.
According to the sentencing report, Sollecito’s expert testified (based on the state of Kercher’s digestive system) that the time of death was between 9:30 and 10:30.
According to the sentencing report, the prosecution expert testified (based on the state of Kercher’s digestive system) that the time of death was as late as midnight.
It seems unlikely to me that the sentencing report would flat out lie about the expert testimony. It also seems unlikely that Sollecito’s expert would testify that the time of death could have been as late as 10:30 if there was solid evidence that the time of death was almost certainly before 9:30pm.
My conclusion is that komponisto is likely the victim of serious confirmation bias.
At the same time, I myself will concede that if his underlying assertions about the computer use and time of death are correct, I will need to re-evaluate my own probability estimate.
I think that dlthomas made an excellent point. Specifically, there are lots of goals each of us could be trying to achieve. You could be trying to cause us to have truer beliefs. You could be trying to understand your though processes and how they might err. Or some other goal.
I do agree it would be better (in terms of arguing for Knox’s guilt) if I laid out those important facts and I will do so if I have the time. But there is also an issue of economy. I’m not thrilled about spending the time to educate people about the case if they have not done their basic homework. Making my case by asking questions forces people to do the same simple research I have done, such as reading a few posts from the anti-Knox site which was linked in the very first thread.
If you cannot achieve your goals because LessWrong is incompatible with them, or the goals are incompatible with LessWrong, then it is perfectly rational for you to spend you time elsewhere. If so, I’m sorry that you were not able to achieve you goals. (As an aside, you have very high standards for an internet discussion if you expect us to do significant research beyond the posts on this site. I like high standards, but seldom live up to them).
Do you dispute that asking questions is sometimes an effective way of getting to the nub of an issue and/or focusing attention on a critical issue?
First, this isn’t a simple yes or no question because you have acquired a reputation for trying to be avoid the issues. That said, lots of things help focus a discussion on the critical issues. Questions are one of those things. But your questions did not seem to have this goal.
I assert that we have gotten to the nub of the issue of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt (i.e. the strength of the evidence).
That’s not true at all. “the strength of the evidence” is composed of dozens of sub-issues. For example, the question of the time of death based on the state of Kercher’s digestive system.
There are lots of basis of guilt articulated that have nothing to do with evidence. Like asserting that Knox’s nationality, age, gender, or status as a college student living abroad have any relevance to her guilt.
Your marshaling of facts about the time of death vs. Sollecito’s computer usage is excellent, in that it provides a real basis for discussion. But is it your true rejection? You pointed out it was a side issue, and even if the prosecution expert was entirely correct, it would only show the evidence was consistent with guilt and would not be [ETA: very strong] evidence of guilt.
it would only show the evidence was consistent with guilt and would not be evidence of guilt.
Most of your points seem good. However, this stood out. Consistency is from a Bayesian perspective evidence (albeit weak evidence) of guilt since it is more likely to occur in the guilty situation than in the non-guilty situation.
What stood out to me was that TimS pretty much missed the point of my argument on this issue. Which was that komponisto seems to be suffering from a serious case of confirmation bias.
The rational thing for komponisto to do would be to verify the points I made, and assuming they check out, thank me for helping him to become less wrong and then try to completely re-think the case. komponisto needs to realize that if he is dead wrong about an issue which he believes to be of central importance, it calls into question all of his thinking about the case, and in particular whether he is adequately scrutinizing the pro-Knox arguments and evidence and adequately considering the anti-Knox arguments (and evidence).
Also, TimS needs to ask himself why he missed the point of my argument. Was it just an oversight? Or is he subconsciously reluctant to go against the Captain of the Blue Team?
I thought you didn’t believe in referencing motivated cognition to determine truth.
Because if we were just weighing the amount of motivated cognition, the Italian prosecutor has engaged in substantially more than komponisto. The low-count DNA testing is nonsense, defense investigators showed a break-in was possible after prosecutors asserted otherwise, and the prosecution theory revolved around Satanism and orgies. At this point, nothing about stomach digestion and computer use timing could persuade me that guilt was more likely that innocence. In short, komponisto could be totally wrong about it and it won’t significantly affect my opinion of the ultimate issue.
I thought you didn’t believe in referencing motivated cognition to determine truth.
If you think so, then you misread my post.
Because if we were just weighing the amount of motivated cognition, the Italian prosecutor has engaged in substantially more than komponisto.
Let’s assume for the moment that’s true. In that case, if the Italian prosecutor were posting here, then just like komponisto, the rational thing for him to do would be to re-think the case.
ETA: Since you seem to keep missing the point of my post, I think it will be helpful to focus things with a few of those dreaded “questions.”
(1) Do you agree that a few posts back, komponisto posted an argument which seems to be dead wrong?
(2) Do you agree that this argument seems to be pretty important to komponisto?
(3) Do you agree that komponisto seems to have fallen victim to confirmation bias? i.e. he failed to scrutinize a pro-Knox argument most likely because he believes so strongly in her innocence?
(4) Do you agree that this calls into question all of komponisto’s thinking about the case?
(5) Do you agree that komponisto should thank me for helping to make him less wrong?
(6) And if komponisto instead writes me off as a “clack,” isn’t that just more of his bias at work?
(7) Finally, if the Italian prosecutor is more biased than komponisto, but in the opposite direction, do you agree it does not change the fact that komponisto himself is biased?
If you cannot achieve your goals because LessWrong is incompatible with them, or the goals are incompatible with LessWrong, then it is perfectly rational for you to spend you time elsewhere.
I agree, but again, so what? Isn’t what you are saying pretty much obvious? Why are you telling me this?
As an aside, you have very high standards for an internet discussion if you expect us to do significant research beyond the posts on this site
Well, the very first thread on the subject invited participants to read somewhat detailed summaries of the arguments (and evidence) for and against Knox’s guilt. Anyway, if you assert a very low probability of Knox’s guilt (which many people here do) (ETA: or a very high probability of Knox’s guilt), then either (1) you have done the research yourself and reached some conclusion which may or may not be justified; (2) you are relying on other posts here; or (3) you are fooling yourself. If number 2 is the case, then my point about komponisto should give you serious pause.
First, this isn’t a simple yes or no question because you have acquired a reputation for trying to be avoid the issues.
I don’t see what my reputation has to do with it. Either my assertion about questions being useful is true or it isn’t.
But your questions did not seem to have this goal.
Can you give me an example of a question I asked, and what you feel the actual goal of the question was?
There are lots of basis of guilt articulated that have nothing to do with evidence.
So what? It doesn’t change the fact that “strength of the evidence”—as a general proposition—is not the nub of the issue. To put it metaphorically, you are missing the trees for the forest.
You pointed out it was a side issue, and even if the prosecution expert was entirely correct, it would only show the evidence was consistent with guilt and would not be evidence of guilt.
Of course, but you need to understand the point of my argument—which is that komponisto seems to have royally screwed up. If you are basing your opinion about guilt or innocence on other peoples posts here—that should give you a lot of pause.
Besides which, having questioned over a thousand hostile witnesses and watched hundreds of message board debates, I can say that the level of hostility is slightly higher in message board debates.
This may be a cause for part of the problematic interactions you are having here. Less Wrong in general strives for a lower degree of hostility on average than the average message board. (Indeed, if we’re not succeeding at that then we’ve failed rationality at so many different levels we might as well spend our time playing Robot Unicorn Attack rather than posting here.) Less Wrong is not the only internet forum that is somewhat successful in this regard. A major part of being successful about this sort of thing is as far as I can tell simply being open to the possibility that interactions on the internet with people one disagrees with don’t need to be hostile. There’s the important related step of realizing that people who disagree are not necessarily stupid, evil, ignorant or crazy. So, try to interact in a way that doesn’t assume that being on a message board necessitates hostile interaction (if it helps imagine that the conversation is occurring over a few beers rather than a message board.)
Less Wrong in general strives for a lower degree of hostility on average than the average message board.
I don’t know about the “average message board,” but I would say there is still a good deal of hostility here, both in the sense of people being resistant to evidence which contradicts their position as well as plain nastiness.
For example, a few posts back, komponisto accused me of asking questions which were “disingenuous.” When I pointed out that I had made it reasonably clear from the get-go that the questions were for rhetorical purposes, he still insisted that my questions were disingenuous. (Actually, he made his comments more personal by referring to “your disingenuousness ”)
I think the non-hostile thing to do would have been to say “Ok, I agree that your questions were not disingenuous but I still object to them for the following reasons . . . ”
Now that you’ve seen that sentence I added late, do you have a response? Because not responding really calls into question whether you really want to persuade us at all. One might even assert ducking that point was . . . disingenuous.
Now that you’ve seen that sentence I added late, do you have a response?
Sure, I think that sometimes laying things out positively is an effective way to make an argument; and sometimes a more socratic approach is better.
Since you mentioned the fact that I am an attorney, I will give you an example from my work. I have a breach of contract case pending in the general trial court of my state. My client was employed by the defendant and is alleging that she is owed a severance payment under her employment contract.
After we filed suit, the defendant served a counterclaim, i.e. they sued her back. The counterclaim alleges that my client breached her obligations to the company by deleting company information from her laptop computer before returning it. I asked my client about the allegations, and she insisted (fairly credibly) that all of the stuff she deleted was duplicative of information already in the defendant’s possession, i.e the defendant didn’t actually lose anything as a result of her actions.
I called up the attorney for the defendant and explained all this to him. I urged him to stop wasting everyone’s time with this BS counterclaim. I explained to him that his client apparently hadn’t actually lost any data or software as a result of my client’s actions. After talking to his client about it (and arguing with me a few times), he refused to withdraw the counterclaim for some BS reason which didn’t make a lot of sense.
My next step was to serve what’s called an “interrogatory” on him. An interrogatory is a formal written question. In this case, I asked him to provide a calculation of the damages his client had suffered as a result of my client’s alleged misconduct. (Note that the interrogatory was komponisto-disingenuous, i.e. I already knew the answer.)
He tried to duck the question, and at the next discovery conference, I got the court to order him to answer the question by a certain date. When that day rolled around, the attorney faxed me a letter saying that he wanted to withdraw the counterclaim.
So you see, questions are often a very effective and economical way to shine the spotlight on a critical point.
As I see it, there was only one important question in that story (the interrogatory).
I called up the attorney for the defendant and explained all this to him. I urged him to stop wasting everyone’s time with this BS counterclaim. I explained to him that his client apparently hadn’t actually lost any data or software as a result of my client’s actions.
This conversation was an exchange of statements. “No merit because X” “Yes merit because ”
at the next discovery conference, I got the court to order him to answer the question by a certain date.
May I speculate that your motion to compel and the judge’s order were not filled with questions.
When that day rolled around, the attorney faxed me a letter saying that he wanted to withdraw the counterclaim.
Also a statement.
(Note that the interrogatory was komponisto-disingenuous, i.e. I already knew the answer.)
If you believe that this type of questioning is a virtue in debating because it is a virtue in discovery practice, you are simply mistaken. Also, many questions that are appropriate for interrogatories are not appropriate for cross-examination.
This conversation was an exchange of statements. “No merit because X” “Yes merit because ”
Well there wasn’t really a pause, as best as I recall.
May I speculate that your motion to compel and the judge’s order were not filled with questions.
There was no motion to compel. I simply mentioned it at the discovery conference that I would like an answer to my question. The court officer looked at my adversary and asked, in substance, what exactly the problem was in answering it [Another one of those pesky questions!!] and my adversary agreed to supply an answer.
Also a statement.
Agreed. So what? I’m not arguing that statements or assertions have no place in litigation (or internet discussions).
If you believe that this type of questioning is a virtue in debating because it is a virtue in discovery practice, you are simply mistaken.
Not because it is a virtue in discovery practice per se, but the same underlying principle is at often at work. A question is often an effective (and economical) way of getting to the nub of a dispute and/or focusing attention on a critical issue.
Also, many questions that are appropriate for interrogatories are not appropriate for cross-examination.
Agree, but so what? I’m not trying to say that internet debating is just like litigation.
Since we are talking about questions, I will ironically ask you a question:
Do you dispute that asking questions is sometimes an effective way of getting to the nub of an issue and/or focusing attention on a critical issue?
I haven’t read all the posts, but my sense is that the people I have discussed the case with here are not aware of certain significant facts.
The most obvious of these facts being the futility of trying to fix people who are wrong on the internet. After sufficient opportunity for the wrongee to get a clue further effort is more likely to hasten a transition to outright troll than to actually improve their thinking.
(I am not one of the downvoters of the parent. While I obviously don’t think my posts are often incoherent I can certainly understand the objection to my comment. It does, after all, represent proposing a motion that we start to consider arguing with brazil specifically over the Amanda Knox issue to be deprecated as troll feeding!)
I really think you aught to start reading through the sequences on rationality and biases, but you might need to start with basic logic first.
If you’ve read them already, then I’m just shocked. Maybe read them again? I don’t know what else to suggest.
The fact that you can continue to argue that Knox and Sollecito are guilty with a 90% confidence, after it has been proven within the limits if modern science’s ability to prove anything, that there is not one trace of physical evidence that Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder, is just mind blowing to me.
All of the arguments presented to you are going to fail, because they are based on critical thinking and logic, and you don’t seem to be capable of these.
To repeat a previous poster, the fact that you are a lawyer and show such a complete inability to reason (to the point that you think logical fallacies are reasonable arguments in some cases*) is downright scary.
*Motive is reasonable evidence for adjusting credibility, but it is always weak and often insignificant. It should never, ever be used to claim an argument is false. The most you can claim is uncertainty of the truth of an argument if the motive is sufficiently strong.
This seems like ridiculous hyperbole—science has far more ability to “prove” things that are repeatable than unrepeatable.
You are absolutely correct.
I should have said “anything of this nature”, my mistake.
You are completely correct.
In the spirit of constructing the best possible argument to engage with, I think we should run as if bigjeff5 had actually said exactly what he said, but appended to it “and the prior probability of the alleged crime having occurred as per the police theory is so incredibly low that nothing but physical evidence that Knox and Sollecito were involved in the murder should push our posterior probability into the >1% range”, or something similar.
I’d say there’s all sorts of non-physical evidence that would be sufficient to push our posterior probability of their guilt higher than that (insofar as any evidence in a materialistic universe can be said to be non-physical.) Email records between Knox, Sollecito and Guede discussing their plans to kill Kercher, for instance. Or if Knox or Sollecito had made statements about the circumstances of Kercher’s death which forensics corroborated which they could not plausibly have made without knowledge that would require them to have been there. Even just evidence of private meetings between Knox, Sollecito and Guede, combined with enough of the warning signs for a person likely to commit murder ought to boost the likelihood that they were complicit well over 1%.
It’s not that there aren’t possible forms of non physical evidence that would be adequate to establish a high likelihood for their guilt, it’s that such evidence is conspicuous in its absence.
My intention was certainly to have recordings of Knox and Sollecito plotting to kill Meredith Kercher, email records of such an exchange, mobile phone calls placed to Rudy Guede and so on as physical evidence if any of them had existed. I class ones and zeroes on a hard drive or a magnetic imprint on a tape as physical evidence just as I count DNA as physical evidence.
Eyewitness evidence or police claims unsupported by physical evidence would be the kind of thing I intended to exclude by specifying physical evidence.
I agree that the argument should proceed that way. I was only weighing in tangentially on the rhetoric.
Nonetheless, the absence of any scientific evidence at all pointing towards guilt (when there was lots of scientific evidence taken) would still be significant evidence of absence of guilt, correct?
It’s not a proof but it is evidence. He’s challenging the 90%, which is perfectly fair under Bayesian reasoning. Because that evidence of absence of guilt is very significant, it would should shift your probabilities far more downward.
I did not mean to say, “there is no evidence of absence of guilt”, or even “there is not overwhelming evidence of absence of guilt”—not really having looked directly at evidence myself, it would be silly for me to weigh in either way. I was just objecting to the hyperbole: science’s ability to “prove” (or provide evidence for) the premise that Newtonian gravity approximately holds for speeds and masses typically involved in human activity on the surface of the earth seems much, much greater than sciences ability to “prove” (or provide evidence for) anything particular feature of a past event.
I’ve already read most of that stuff, and I would suggest to you that the problem is with your thinking—not mine. If you are in the wrong, then it would naturally seem to you like my thinking is completely irrational.
Perhaps it will help if I ask you this question: What do you think are some of the best pieces of evidence against Knox and Sollecito?
P.S. It’s likely that for many people, most of the articles on bias will actually make them stupider because they will become better at results-oriented or motivated reasoning.
I want to print this comment out and frame it. This is for real, not tongue in cheek irony?
Since the elimination of the faulty DNA evidence (which was previously the best evidence against them), the best evidence against Knox and Sollecito come from the police interrogation, specifically Knox’s confession, and the fact that they knew the victim.
The strongest bit here is the confession, as knowing the victim is, at best, a pointer for where to look for a suspect—it is incredibly weak evidence on its own (in fact, there are dozens of people who fit better based on just knowing the victim) and does not in any way eliminate the possibility of a random stranger committing the crime. By all accounts the three got along reasonably well, if not particularly friendly to each other.
There are some interesting facts about the confession that I think you’re missing:
1.) It is factually incorrect. The statements in the confession do not fit the facts of the crime. This severely damages the validity of the confession.
2.) The confession came after 24 hours of non-stop interrogation by the Italian police. There have been a number of studies that have shown that suspects become highly confused after long, intense interrogation sessions—particularly those that include sleep deprivation as was the case here. Suspects can be coerced into making whatever statements the interrogators want. In fact, in the US we have laws against this kind of treatment, including things like the right to silence and the right to have an attorney present during an interrogation to prevent exactly these scenarios. As an attorney I’d expect to know this.
Taken together, by far the most likely scenario is that the police coerced the confession out of Knox. Just on the facts relating to the interrogation alone, I’d put the likelihood that the confession was genuine at 10% at the very highest.
If the confession were genuine, we would expect some physical evidence of Knox and Sollecito at the crime scene. Given the fact that there is literally zero physical evidence of Knox and Sollecito’s involvement, the likelihood that the confession is genuine must drop even further, to below 1%.
Considering the confession is about the only evidence for their involvement, I have to place the likelihood of their guilt at <1%. (There was a homeless man who claimed he saw them enter the apartment, but this is so weak as to be irrelevant given the poor track record of eyewitness accounts even immediately after a highly memorable event, the credibility of a detailed recollection of a mundane event over a year after it occurred is virtually non-existent, particularly without any evidence to back it up of any kind.)
Also, the reason I suggested you re-read the sequences is because you stated that you were 90% certain that all three were guilty, yet 90% that Guide was guilty even if the other two were not. This is a major failure in probability (and is actually a pretty common bias), as the options are Guide acted alone, or Guide acted with accomplices. Eliminating Knox and Sollecito from the equation eliminates a point of uncertainty, no matter how certain you are of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt, and aught to increase your confidence in the individual assessment of Guide’s guilt. Being 99% certain that Guide is guilty, and 90% certain that Guide, Knox, and Sollecito are guilty is logically consistent. Being 90% certain that Guide is guilty, yet 90% certain that all three are guilty is not logically consistent. You have to either lower you confidence in the guilt of all three, or raise your confidence in the guilt of Guide.
I may have phrased that last paragraph poorly, but most people should be able to understand it. I may edit for clarity later.
Edited to add: Here is a good article on coerced confessions, written by a forensic scientist.
Second edit, sorry, pertinent quote from the article:
Not really, since I put little weight on what Knox said under interrogation. I have no problem believing that an innocent person would buckle under the pressure and point the finger at someone else. To me, what’s most interesting about this “confession” was that the authorities arrested another person (the wrong person) based on Knox’s statements. This is evidence that the authorities had something of an open mind about the situation.
Anyway, I disagree with you that this is the strongest piece of evidence against Knox and I think I can demonstrate it to you if you will indulge me by answering (or trying to answer) a few questions:
(1) When did Knox first become concerned about Kercher’s absence?
(2) When did Sollecito and Knox first call the police and why?
(3) If it turns out that the ransacking of Romanelli’s room was a staged burglary, do you agree that this is decent evidence against Knox?
Can you show me where I did that? My recollection is I estimated roughly 99% for Guede’s guilt.
I agree that it would not make sense to estimate 90% for Knox, Sollecito, and Guede to all be involved in the murder and 90% for Guede alone.
My apologies, I misread/misremembered your original assessment. I should have double checked before posting; you can ignore that whole portion of my post.
These circumstances are enough to drive suspicion toward Knox and Sollecito, but without any sort of physical evidence to back up the suspicions they are insignificant. There are a lot of possible explanations for their behavior and the vast majority don’t include murder.
If it is proven that it was staged by Knox/Sollecito, then absolutely. The inverse is also true, however: if Knox/Sollecito are innocent, then they didn’t fake the break-in. The evidence that the break-in was staged is very weak, which is exactly what you expect to see if they are innocent.
This is the part, I think, that you are missing: the physical evidence (including reliable electronic evidence) is extremely strong evidence. It is “trumps everything” kind of strong. Slightly odd behavior is incredibly weak evidence. There is a huge amount of physical evidence in this case, and none of it points to Knox or Sollecito. The likelihood that they could be guilty of murder without leaving any evidence behind is incredibly small. Without evidence of any sort of link between Guide and Knox/Sollecito the complete lack of physical evidence of their involvement trumps the little bit of circumstantial evidence by a wide margin.
It seems you are unable to answer two questions which would have been pretty easy if you understood the case against Knox and Sollecito and were still satisfied of their innocence. To be sure, they are komponisto-disingenuous questions. But still, why not simply try to answer them anyway?
Again, it seems pretty clear to me that you do not understand the case against Knox and Sollecito, which is far more than “slightly odd behavior.”
By the way, did you know that there was in fact evidence of such a link presented? I was surprised myself to learn about it.
You act as if there is one unified “case against Knox and Sollecito”. There is not. There are many, as different people who believe Knox and Sollecito did it find different aspects to be more convincing. We understand plenty of cases against Knox and Sollecito just fine—the ones we have read that have been made clearly. What is true is that we don’t understand the case you have in mind. This is because you have never made that case, nor pointed us to someone clearly making that case. Yet you do expect us to miraculously understand the details of it. If we guess, unsurprisingly, it is counted as evidence that we don’t understand, yet you never attempt to correct that understanding. It is your responsibility to say why some bit evidence actually means anything. I’m disinclined to continue unless this is rectified.
Stop trolling and put up or if that’s too hard, at least shut up.
Perhaps reasonable people can differ on fine gradations of significance among the more important pieces of evidence, but, for example, anyone who seriously believes that Knox’s “mannerisms” are among the best pieces of evidence against her has seriously missed the boat.
Anyway, if I have the time I will put together a blog post laying out what I think are the most important pieces of evidence and Knox (and Sollecito).
I await with bated breath.
I’m glad to know you are so interested in what I have to say.
ETA: My blog post is up as of today (11/17/11)
A link to said post would help.
http://fortaleza84.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/is-amanda-knox-guilty/
I’m happy that you’ve finally posted this. However, much of this piece makes me cringe. I don’t know if it is the style, an actual failure of logic or something else. Parts like:
Really doesn’t help your case more than simply inflame issues. Moreover, “deviant pornography”, seriously? What fraction of the population watches BDSM themed porn or other forms of non-standard porn? The fraction is orders of magnitude larger than the set of people who murder or arrange for murders. It isn’t even obvious to me that that’s even more common among murderers.
Frankly, I would guess a big part of the problem is that you did not read my post very carefully. Because you seem to be under the impression that I argued that Sollecito’s (alleged) interest in deviant pornography was evidence of guilt.
I even went so far as to put the following at the bottom the post:
If the porn is not relevant either way, then it should not be mentioned. Mentioning it in a short piece invites the viewer to interpret it that way or, if they read it so carefully as to (non-)interpret it as you say, it comes off as sheer rhetoric and an attempt to contaminate the reader’s mind with unfounded assertions.
(“Ladies and gentleman of the jury, I would like you to imagine the defendant late one night holding down his daughter and raping her repeatedly in every orifice in defiance of every law of God and man. There is of course no evidence he has actually done this and we are here to discuss his tax evasion, but I simply wanted you to imagine it for a little bit. Moving on to the first tax filing exhibit...”)
If anything, I would say that the porn is evidence against Sollecito’s guilt. After all, considering how common “black guy rapes white girl” porn is, if that’s something he was interested in seeing and his porn viewing is indicative of his interests, then it would be more reasonable to expect him to have it than not.
Anyway, the idea that the porn could be not evidence, but something to show a plausible scenario, is simply nonsense. The prior probability for Sollecito’s guilt reflects all possible scenarios in which Sollecito could have been involved, and is based on our best available knowledge of how often people in his circumstances commit the sort of crime attributed to him. Any meaningful information must either show that our prior was inappropriate (people in Sollecito’s reference class commit this sort of crime more often than we thought) or show that Sollecito in particular was more likely to have committed this particular crime. Brazil disavowed its relevance in the latter respect, and it’s obviously not relevant in the former.
I think it’s relevant because it helps to show that there is a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox murders her roommate; that it’s not like asserting that Elvis was actually an extra-terrestrial.
It’s the same reason I mentioned the Janet Chandler murder. The fact that one white girl took part in the rape and murder of another white girl in Michigan in the 70s is not evidence that Knox is guilty either. Again, it just helps to show that such a scenario is remotely plausible.
I would hope and expect that many of the posters on this board will accept this point about remote plausibility without any narrative. Such people should feel free to ignore that part of my blog post.
I think you’ve run afoul of the principle of charity here, in that your piece was taken as an argumentative essay and thus it was charitable to assume that each part of it was intended to support your stated conclusion. In future it would help a lot if you made your conclusions explicit at each stage of the argument rather than leaving them implicit because otherwise readers are forced to guess at what you think the evidence means.
Having read your piece I also think that you’re reasoning from some false premises. If you read enough of the popular material on the internet about this case it becomes evident fairly quickly that in pro-guilt circles the evidence has taken on a life of its own and grown in the telling.
There is no actual evidence that Sollecito had ” a strong interest in deviant pornography”, although plenty of sites would claim that. There is evidence he was once in possession of one film clip involving bestiality in his university years, which is not proof of a strong interest, and evidence he was in possession of a mainstream and unremarkable manga book, but that’s the extent of the evidence that he had any deviant sexual tendencies.
Similarly there was no evidence Amanda Knox had a promiscuous lifestyle by student standards nor that Knox had numerous male visitors. Knox gave a complete list of her lifetime sexual partners to the police when they (falsely) told her she had tested HIV+, and she wasn’t any more promiscuous than your average student.
It’s simply not true that Knox and Sollecito called the police after the police had already arrived. That misconception arose due to incorrect police testimony but it was later cleared up.
There was never any evidence that the break-in at the house was staged and the appeal court exonerated Knox and Sollecito of those charges on the grounds that particular crime had never in fact happened.
To your credit you state clearly that you are basing your opinion on popular sources and that you are open to the possibility that your evidence is faulty, and it’s no sin to reason rigorously from false premises and get to a false conclusion.
(By contrast the evidence of egregious police misconduct in the Knox case is very strong indeed. Italy is a curiosity in that it has no meaningful police oversight body and hence the police can get away with virtually anything. In every other First World country the relevant misconduct investigation body would have their metaphorical foot right up the Perugian authorities’ collective metaphorical posterior by now).
I would say it doesn’t get much more explicit than this:
In fact, I would go so far as to suspect that some folks here are going on the principle of anti-charity, i.e. looking for the easiest way to attack my post while ignoring the core argument.
Well let’s discuss them then.
I would say that having been in possession of a bestiality film as well as “comic books that ’mixed pornography and horror‛” is pretty good evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography. I’m not sure that it matters, since Sollecito’s alleged interest in deviant pornography is not central to my argument. But perhaps it’s worth discussing.
You seem to dispute that Sollecito was in the possession of such comic books (plural.) Do you happen to have a cite and a link? I am going by the police report as quoted on page 103 of the sentencing report.
I’m not sure what “promiscuous lifestyle by student standards” means. According to one report I read (ETA: this morning), Knox had sex with 3 men after her arrival in Italy and 4 prior. Disagree?
As far as male visitors goes I was able to find this quote:
I’m not sure what “numerous” means to you, but it seems clear to me that at a minimum, there is evidence to believe that Knox engaged in sexual activities which Kercher would have resented and perceived as slutty. Agreed?
Well in your view, when did the police arrive? And more importantly, at the time the police arrived, were Knox and Sollecito concerned about Kercher’s absence? If you look at the evidence carefully, you will see that there is no good answer for this question which is consistent with Knox being innocent.
Also, do you agree that Sollecito at one point stated to police that he had not called the police at the time the police showed up?
That’s simply not true. For example, Romanelli apparently testified to finding glass on top of her dislodged belongings. She also testified that nothing was taken. And Sollecito told the police that nothing was taken before he should have known it. Now, you may want to debate the strength of this evidence, but it’s still evidence that the break-in was staged.
I agree. Could you please share your own sources? Maybe we can figure out which of us (perhaps both) are reasoning from false premises.
As far as sources go, it’s just a fact that so far you have provided few sources and those were vague. I’m happy to take part in a conversation where we each cite our sources properly, or where neither do, but not an asymmetrical one where I am obliged to cite sources and you are not.
I wouldn’t say that at all. Potential alternative reasons for being in possession of a bestiality film clip include curiosity, desire to shock, or an interest in deviant pornography which does not rise to the level of “strong”. The comic book in question was ‘Blood: The Last Vampire’ which is such a mainstream affair that the animated movie shows regularly on the public broadcasting channel SBS where I live in Australia.
If Sollecito had been found to have a few gigabytes of rape and BDSM porn on his hard drive I would take that to be evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography. One clip he possessed once in the past and a mundane comic book do not to my mind constitute strong evidence.
Well no, not based on that evidence. To begin with this was court testimony from long after the murder, from people who have had over a year to cherry-pick anything Meredith could have said at any time which could be taken as evidence of friction between Knox and Kercher. You have to avoid the base rate fallacy here: What are the odds that we would hear testimony like this if there was no serious animosity between the two, under these circumstances? I’d say pretty good.
Bear in mind that if the two had ever, say, had a nasty argument or one had stolen the other’s clothes or anything more serious had ever occurred we would be hearing about that instead. For students living together if the worst instances of friction anyone can recall are complaints about monotonous guitar practice, a transparent toiletries bag and (as I recall) a single instance of Knox bringing a strange man home, who she did not (as far as we can ascertain from her list of sexual contacts) sleep with, then they probably got along quite well.
By all accounts dating from before the murder the two got on well, went on outings together and were friends.
The postal police arrived at 13:00 as established by security camera evidence. The carabinieri arrived at 13:34. Raffaele called the police at 12:51. Knox and Sollecito had been trying to find out where Meredith was and whether she was okay from 12:07 onwards as established by phone records.
The postal police incorrectly claimed they had arrived at 12:35 but this was based on their unassisted recollection and was falsified by the security camera nearby.
She also testified to finding glass under some of her belongings and mixed through them, and since some things were in fact taken (money and mobile phones) the fact that some things were not taken is not evidence for staging over a real break-in. Sollecito did state that nothing was taken but at that stage he did not know anything had been taken, and while an ideal rationalist with time to think would have said “I am aware of no evidence anything was taken” a university student under stress being imprecise is not more consistent with guilt than innocence.
There were also scuff marks on the wall outside consistent with someone climbing in, freshly exposed brickwork consistent with someone chipping the wall while climbing in, white powdery deposits in Filomena’s room consistent with someone having scuffed their feet on the white wall outside while climbing in, and several large chunks of glass on the outside windowsill consistent with someone positioned on the window sill manually enlarging the hole in the glass to access the window’s latch. This is all evident from photographs of the crime scene yet the police inexplicably testified that there was no evidence of a break-in.
Wait, that was what was being referenced when Brazil quoted
‽ My high school anime club showed the movie of that twice (we ran under schedule one day) so I remember it well… Good grief. And Brazil is still arguing. I don’t know why you guys are still bothering—I’m not going to, even if it seems tempting.
I have considered arguing with brazil about Knox to be troll feeding for some time.
(Note that brazil84 earned –208 Karma in the last 30 days, with most of the recent comments having moderately negative rating.)
Outside view explication: a break-in reliably leaves more evidence than what the police found.
The way I do things with sources is that if somebody represents to me that he is seriously skeptical of a claim I have made, I will normally try to find a source. Similarly, I will not ask for a source (or cite) unless I am seriously skeptical of a claim which has been made. The reason I do things this way is because I do think in general people should provide sources (or cites) to back up their claims, but at the same time I have encountered problems in online debate with people who demand cites for claims which they don’t seriously dispute, presumably just to distract the discussion from the critical issues. (Also, keep in mind that for some claims, general knowledge, simple observation, and common sense are potentially reasonable or adequate sources. )
So the upshot is that I will try to find and provide a cite or source for any claim I make if you represent to me that you are seriously skeptical of the claim.
With that out of the way, I am seriously skeptical of your apparent claim that Sollecito was in the possession of a “mainstream and unremarkable manga book” and not multiple “comic books that mixed pornography and horror.” I have provided a cite for my position, now please provide a cite for yours.
I’m not sure I understand your point.
Do you agree that there was testimony that Kercher advised her friends that Knox had brought “strange men [plural]” over?
Do you agree that such testimony is evidence (although perhaps not proof) that Knox did in fact bring multiple men to the residence?
Based on your knowledge of human nature, do you agree that there is a pretty good chance that Kercher would have resented such behavior?
Can you give me a cite for this please? (I am seriously skeptical)
Ok, then here’s a couple questions for you:
If Knox and Sollecito were concerned about Kercher’s absence when the postal police arrived, why did Knox (apparently) advise them that Kercher normally kept her door locked?
Why did Sollecito (apparently) later admit to the authorities that he had not yet called the police with the postal police showed up?
(And yes, I will provide sources for this stuff if you represent to me that you are seriously skeptical.)
I’m not sure what your point is here. Do you dispute that she testified to finding glass on top of some of her belongings? Do you dispute that this is evidence (evidence, not conclusive proof) of a staged break-in?
Well do you agree that (1) the evidence seems to indicate that nothing was taken from Romenelli’s room; and (2) according to Sollecito’s story, he had seen Romanelli’s room but not Kercher’s room at that point?
Well was he asked about it or did he volunteer it? As far as I know, he first volunteered that there was no theft and then when asked if anything was taken, he said “no.” I could understand him giving an imprecise answer if asked about it, but why would he volunteer that nothing was taken?
Again, I am seriously skeptical of this claim. Please back it up with a quote, link, and cite.
Yes, I saw that, but I found it to be as either disingenuous or at best unhelpful. If it is irrelevant then it shouldn’t be mentioned. In context if you are using it for evidence then claiming you aren’t isn’t helpful and simply brings up something that will make people annoyed.
The same thing could be said about my mention of the Janet Chandler murder. The fact that one white girl helped to rape and murder another white girl (who was her roommate) back in the 70s in Michigan is not evidence of Knox’s guilt.
But as I mentioned in the blog post, I think both are helpful to show a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox is guilty.
If you disagree, then I think that under the “principle of charity,” you should simply ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 (which you apparently consider to be irrelevant, inflammatory fluff) and consider the core of my argument.
Yes, and the mention of the Chandler case also falls into the same category.
Does something increase plausibility or show a plausible scenario? Then it is evidence. If it doesn’t increase plausibility then it isn’t evidence. You can’t have it both ways.
Well, new information could suggest that you applied the wrong prior. If you’re trying to calculate the likelihood of a person’s guilt, and you find that the crime is more common than you originally thought, you’ll have to assign a higher probability of guilt, but you could reasonably say that it’s not evidence of guilt, because you’re revising P(A) rather than introducing a new (B).
This could be said to apply to the mention of the Chandler case, if you don’t have any information on how common such crimes are that would screen it off, but it clearly does not apply to the porn.
Well sure if you want to take a broad view of what constitutes “evidence,” then everything in my scenario constitutes “evidence.” (ETA: I would take a slightly narrower view, but perhaps it makes sense to agree on a definition.)
Similarly, by your standard the fact that had had sex with at least 7 men by the age of 20 is “evidence.” Why? First, because it raises the probability that she suffers from borderline personality disorder and therefore is lacking in empathy. Someone lacking in empathy is more likely to take part in a serious crime against another person. Second, because it raises the probability that she had male visitors which would have increased tension between her and Kercher, increasing the chances that she had a motive.
Anyway, I have a question for you: Why do you continue to ignore my core argument for Knox’s guilt?
Yes, this is all evidence according to the Bayesian definition. Calling E evidence (with respect to prior knowledge X) for a proposition H just means that p(H | E & X) > p(H | X). That is why quantifying evidence is so important. Just how much evidence is it? If all the evidence you offer raises the probability of H by only a few percent from a very low prior, then it should have practically no effect on how we treat Knox.
I basically agree, but sometimes it’s helpful to have a story or narrative or illustration before jumping in to look at the important evidence. That’s just how the human mind works, or at least most peoples’ minds. I realize this can be dangerous, for example it can lead to a “conjunction fallacy,” but I was careful to lable my narrative as speculation.
Just today I was browsing this web site and I came across an article called “Existential Risk” which was complete with (1) a picture of the Earth; (2) a likely apocryphal story about a man who singlehandedly prevented nuclear war; and (3) a picture of a Stanford torus. Is this cheap emotional manipulation? Perhaps, but again, I think this kind of story-telling can be useful to get the mind ready to focus on the meat of the argument.
One can ask what the likelihood is that we are reaching a critical juncture where the decisions and dilligence of just a few humans in the artificial intelligence community will have a massive impact on the future of humanity. Strictly speaking, the fact that some Russian dude did (or didn’t) singlehandedly prevent a nuclear war shouldn’t have much impact on our estimate of this probability. But I think it still might be worth mentioning to demonstrate the plausibility of the claim that one person can have a big impact.
In the same way, I think it’s worth mentioning the Janet Chandler case from the 70s. But again, if you object to this approach, just ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 of my blog post.
I agree that it’s worth mentioning Janet Chandler. It would be better to treat it seriously as evidence, rather than merely as a narrative framing device. To treat it seriously as evidence, you should use it to help establish a prior probability for Knox’s guilt (like Desrtopa did).
It seems to me that “narrative framing device” is basically a poor man’s method of estimating a prior probability. Here’s what I said in my blog post:
Of course in terms of assessing probabilities, it might be better if there were a lot of precedents, for example in a situation where a husband is suspected of killing his wife. But here there’s not a lot to go on.
It’s a very effective rhetorical device to trick the opponent into saying a complicated thing, and then respond with a simple thing. I’m not saying this is what you are attempting, but it could well seem that you are attempting this.
For example homeopaths try to steer conversations about homeopathy so that the skeptic says a lot of complicated things about Avogadro’s Number and the minute time-scale on which water molecule structures persist and the need for double-blinded, placebo-controlled trials and then the homeopath gets to say “Yes, well, it miraculously cured my cat’s cataracts and that’s all I need to know”.
If you tried to explain what evidence you have with regard to when Knox first became concerned about Kercher’s absence, and with regard to when Sollecito and Knox first called the police, and how you conclude from this evidence that they are guilty, you would be put in the position of saying the complicated thing. Other people could then respond with the simple thing, which I predict would be “none of that proves anything”.
Whereas if you make the other person say the complicated thing, then you could respond with a pithy rhetorical question and gain the rhetorical advantage.
I honestly cannot see how the truth-seeking process benefits from you not presenting your evidence. You seem to be taking the discussion to the level of a status battle over who has personal authority and I think we should try to avoid that outcome.
These questions are disingenuous and pointless. If you think the answers to them are incriminating to Knox and Sollecito, then you should just state (what you believe to be) the answers and explain why they are incriminating. This is what you would do if you were arguing honestly (instead of trying to “catch” your opponent in a mistake), and it would also save time.
Of course it is, which is why the staging charge carries a burden of proof equal to that of the murder charge.
That would make perfectly good sense. What would not make sense is 90% for all three and 90% for Guede with or without the others.
Preface: I disagree with brazil about basically everything he says regarding Knox and reject most of the reasoning he uses to try to argue his case. But:
Disingenuous does not apply to these questions in this context. There is no feigning of naivety, ignorance or unsophistication. The questions are rhetorical, pretentious, annoying, misguided, of dubious relevance and wrapped up with a tad of snide—but not disingenuous.
There is feigning of ignorance of the answers (even if the feigning is transparent); and they aren’t rhetorical. On the other qualities we agree.
No, there isn’t. Nothing in that passage in any way implies that brazil is ignorant of the answer to those questions.
I do not consider the distinction you are drawing important enough to restrict my use of the term “disingenuous”. As far as I am concerned the questions themselves imply ignorance of the answers, and this is the basis on which the term was used. You are free to disapprove (and your disapproval is noted), but I shan’t be drawn into a status battle over this issue.
Excuse me? While there is an unfortunate and unavoidable status implication in the mere willingness to correct someone rather than being too intimidated by the potential threat they may pose I went to a lot of trouble to ameliorate that in the correction in question. I prefaced with an indication of full support for you in your status battle with brazil then offered a whole stream of applicable substitute negative labels for brazil’s rheotorical ploy to show that I am not trying to subvert the core of the message “brazil should have lowered status because of what he said to kompo”—because the latter would, in fact, seem appropriate.
The above being the case it actually kind of hurts to be portrayed as trying to ‘draw you into a status battle’. The opening salvo in any such battle would be the parent and I obviously wouldn’t draw it out beyond this one reply. I could only stand to lose by such an engagement.
Regarding the calling of people disingenuous there probably isn’t a problem here—I expect you consider the back and forth you’ve had with brazil over the subject to have gone on long enough. Obviously in general I am always likely to object if somewhat is falsely accused of being disingenuous. It would be outright bizarre if I didn’t when I have already done so when the unjustly accused is someone I consider a troll-minus-malicious-intent. In the context of lesswrong disingenuousness is perhaps one of the most dire things you can accuse someone of!
As it happens I gave serious consideration to rewording or dropping the last line, but didn’t get to it in time. It was more heavy-handed than I intended, sorry. But, in fairness to myself, I would point out that the future tense was used, and that there was no intended implication of inappropriate aggression on your part in the preceding exchange. I was, in other words, retreating from a danger that I foresaw (for whose existence I am as surely to blame as anyone, being as I am a human).
I had intended only to communicate that I wasn’t terribly interested in arguing about the meaning of “disingenuous” in this particular context at this particular moment, nothing more. (I’ll mention that I had also considered the wording: “drawn into a status battle with an ally...)
It’s amazing how much difference those few words make. ;)
The questions may have been posed as Socratic questions rather than disingenuous or rhetorical questions.
However the Socratic method is a pedagogical device. It’s not meant to be a tactic used to get out of stating what your argument or beliefs really are when trying to arrive at the truth and it does seem to me that it would save time if brazil84just stated whatever evidence they have and what conclusions they draw from it.
Indeed; hence using it amounts to an assertion of higher status like that of teacher over pupil. This would be another ground on which to object to brazil’s questions.
I disagree, because I suspect that just like desrtopa, bigjeff5 does not understand the case against Knox. If he is unable to answer these questions, it will confirm my suspicions. At the moment, I am not interested in debating Knox’s guilt with biggjeff5 if he hasn’t bothered to study and understand the evidence against her.
Well do you agree that there is decent (if not compelling) evidence that the burglary was staged? For example (1) Romanelli’s testimony that she found glass on top of her disturbed items; (2) Romanelli’s testimony that nothing was taken from her room; and (3) Sollecito’s apparent statement to the police (before Romanelli returned) that there had been a burglary but nothing was taken?
Yes, I think that’s what I meant. I think I can make things simpler by laying out 4 possibilities:
(1) Guede, Knox, and Sollecito were all involved in the murder;
(2) Guede was involved in the murder but not Knox or Sollecito;
(3) Guede was not involved in the murder but Knox and Sollecito were;
(4) None of Guede, Knox, or Sollecito were involved in the murder.
I think that the probability of (1) is roughly 90%; (2) is roughly 9+%; (3) is negligible; and (4) is negligible.
Make sense?
(I also think that the chances that Knox was involved but not Sollecito or vice versa are negligible)
Exactly. So, far from “disagreeing”, you admit that your questions were disingenuous.
No.
You need evidence that is thousands of times more likely in the case of staging than in the case of an authentic burglary. The notion that any of those items comes anywhere close to meeting such a standard is simply ridiculous.
I clearly prefaced my questions with the following:
So it was pretty clear to any reasonable person that I was asking the questions not simply to improve my understanding. Agree?
First, I would ask you why that is.
Second, let’s break it down a bit: In your view, how much more likely is it that Romanelli would have discovered glass on top of her disturbed items in the case of a staged burglarly than in a legitimate one?
Next, how much more likely is it that nothing would be taken in the case of a staged burglary than a legitimate one?
Same question for Sollecito’s phone call.
Yes, your disingenuousness was indeed transparent.
If you thought there was some stronger piece of evidence than what your interlocutor mentioned, you should simply have stated it rather than quizzing the other person.
Read the post I linked, and review Bayes’ theorem if necessary.
Sorry, no. You are the contrarian here; the onus is on you to explain your position. My view is well known by now; I’ve explained it in a number of posts and comments. Just for the record, my current probability of guilt for Knox and Sollecito is between 0.0001 and 0.001, updated from a prior of between 0.00001 and 0.0001; if you want numerical bounds on my likelihood ratios, you can do the arithmetic yourself.
Let’s see if I have this straight: According to you, any question which is for rhetorical, testing, or socratic purposes is “disingenuous” even if the nature of the question is made clear from the beginning? Is that what you are saying?
I’m not sure I see your point. It seems that your “thousands of times more likely” comes from the observation that the prior probability of Knox’s guilt is pretty low. But the exact same thing could be said in connection with Knox’s “confession” and in any event, the unlikelihood of the various evidence resulting from a bona fide break-in would appear to counterbalance the low prior probability.
I’m not sure it needs to go by the majority. But anyway, if you don’t want to explain your position, that’s fine by me. I was trying to get down to the nub of our disagreement.
The nub of our disagreement is quite clearly identifiable: you apparently believe that certain testimony about the position of glass fragments (contrary to the photographic evidence, incidentally) is thousands of times less likely to occur in the case of an actual burglary than in the case of fake one. More generally, you are of the opinion that circumstantial and psychological evidence of the sort produced in this case is powerful enough to overcome not only the incredibly low prior probability of guilt for Knox and Sollecito, but also the total lack of any (significant, non-discredited) physical evidence tying them to the crime, the failure of Guede to implicate them until he knew they were suspects, and the fact that Kercher had both a full stomach and an empty duodenum at death, and thus almost certainly died before 9:30 pm, while Sollecito’s computer was in use at his apartment.
Needless to say, I think this is sheer madness. In my view, you are vastly, hugely overconfident in your model of human behavior. However, in the unlikely event that you can actually produce a compelling argument for why I should (for example) regard the presence of glass on top of clothes as 30-decibel evidence in favor of the hypothesis that Knox and Sollecito staged the burglary over the hypothesis that there was an authentic burglary committed by known burglar Rudy Guede, I am all ears.
Really, however, I’m long past the point where I’m ready to write you off as an incorrigible clacker.
Actually I don’t believe that. My estimate is somewhere between 10 and 100. It seems you refuse to tell me yours.
Where are you getting this from?
According to my research
(1) Sollecito’s computer stopped being used at 9:10pm
(2) Sollecito’s own expert witness—Professor Introna—testified that based on the stomach and duodenum contents, the time of death was between 9:30 pm and 10:30pm.
(3) Professor Bacci, the prosecution’s expert, testified (based on the same digestive issues) that the time of death was between 9:00 to 9:30 pm and 11:00pm to midnight.
Do you disagree with any of this? Because it looks to me like you are suffering from a massive case of confirmation bias. To be sure, I got items (2) and (3) from the sentencing report. But I have a really hard time believing that the report would flat out lie about peoples’ testimony.
And by the way, I would still like an answer to my earlier question:
According to you, any question which is for rhetorical, testing, or socratic purposes is “disingenuous” even if the nature of the question is made clear from the beginning? Is that what you are saying?
Strictly speaking, this is not evidence we possess. The evidence we possess is that it is reported that nothing was taken. An explanation that involves things being taken but a false report otherwise still fits our observations. Whether this moves the probabilities much, I have too little knowledge of the other facts of the case to say. (Strictly speaking, the facts could even contradict my objection—if, for instance, there was an audit of the apartment conducted by a reliable third party immediately prior to the burglary. I think that unlikely enough to discount, though...)
I agree. (One could also say that strictly speaking we don’t know that Knox was in Italy at the time of the murder; we don’t even know if there really is a girl named Amanda Knox.)
ETA: One should of course consider the possibility that much of the evidence against Knox is simply fraudulent.
That’s speaking a little more strictly than relevant, I think. My point was that, in the general case, there can be reasons that nothing was reported stolen other than that nothing was reported stolen. “He took my 10 lbs of cocaine” is something someone would be reluctant to tell the police, though I might expect it to nonetheless come out in a murder trial. Alternatively, something might have been taken that the person had forgotten they were in possession of. Adjudge for yourself how likely either of these explanations is, but they should be considered—along with any others that run along similar lines. Asking strictly about the probability of a real vs. staged break-in based on the fact that nothing is taken might be misleading.
I agree, and one should of course take Romanelli’s testimony with a grain of salt. She might be forgetful; she might have been coached to give testimony damaging to Knox; and so forth.
However, keep in mind that the question on the table is whether the strongest (piece of?) evidence against Knox is her statement to the police that she was at the apartment at the time of the murder. For these purposes, I think it’s reasonable to accept Romanelli’s testimony at face value.
Honestly, given what I know about the facts, the strongest evidence of guilt is that Knox and Sollecito were roommates of Knox.
Are you familiar with the case against Knox and Sollecito?
I would say moderately familiar. But most of my knowledge is based on gwern’s posts on the case. Are there significant facts not mentioned in the posts?
FYI: gwern and I are not the same person.
Oops. I looked at the author of this post and generalized. Sorry about that.
I haven’t read all the posts, but my sense is that the people I have discussed the case with here are not aware of certain significant facts.
What I would suggest is studying the truejustice.org site which was linked to in the very first post. And of course looking at pro-Knox sites too.
Stick your neck out. What evidence do you believe is not well understood?
Mainly, the inconsistencies in stories and timelines and the lies to the authorities. You can learn about all of this stuff on the site I mentioned. Or, if you prefer, I think I can demonstrate it to you through a series of komponisto-disingenous questions. A kind of gentle cross examination, if you will.
You say you are a lawyer. When you write briefs, do you write them in rhetorical questions? Because I write briefs like this:
The law is X. Here is a case that says the law is X. Therefore, the law is X.
It just seems more persuasive that way.
Generally not. So what? This is not a brief.
(Interestingly, I cross-examine witnesses a lot more than I write briefs. When you cross-examine someone, you make your point by asking questions. Typically, the questioner is not asking the questions to get information but instead to make a point. i.e. the questions are komponisto-disingenuous. I’d love to see komponisto in the witness box, whining about the “disingenuous” questions being asked of him by the attorneys. Anyway, I think questioning someone can be a very effective way to make your point. However, if you don’t feel like playing that game, I certainly cannot force you.)
There are several interesting characteristics of cross-examination:
1) The witness is hostile to your case, which is to say that you are not trying to persuade the witness of anything.
2) The audience is the jury (i.e. a third party to the dialogue). You might be trying to elicit facts from the witness that you can’t demonstrate any other way. Or you might be trying to show that the witness is not worthy of belief, perhaps because of bias, lack of knowledge, unworthiness of belief, or suchlike.
3) The primary focus of questioning witnesses is to resolve questions of fact.
None of those characteristics are particularly parallel to a debate on a message board. We aren’t hostile to your case, we are interested in your points. We are the audience, not the source of the facts. We aren’t trying to act in bad faith. And we aren’t trying to find out the facts. We are trying to find out the significance of the facts.
Finding the significance of the facts is applying law to fact. That’s just not the purpose of cross-examination.
In short, placing us in the witness stand is the wrong move. Try treating us like opposing counsel. I’m doubtful that rhetorical questions have a major place in your settlement negotiations. If you were arguing a motion in front of a judge, disingenuous would be the nicest thing she would call to you if you answered her question with a question every time. This is not a legal brief, but it’s more like a brief than questioning a witness.
For example, she could call you a ‘contemnor’. I just learned that word yesterday. I can’t remember why. Oh yes, I was wikipediaing my way from “methods of suicide” through “suicide by cop” through one jurisdiction where it can be done easily due to the applicable punishment for contempt of court.
That’s not entirely true. Sometimes you get the witness to finally concede a key point. Besides which, having questioned over a thousand hostile witnesses and watched hundreds of message board debates, I can say that the level of hostility is slightly higher in message board debates.
Anyway, I am not saying that a message board debate necessarily is, or should be, like cross-examination. I am simply saying that asking questions is often a very effective way to make a point. It can also be very useful in getting to the nub of a disagreement.
That’s not true. The main interest here is in determining Knox’s actions, i.e. whether she was involved in the murder. Not the legal significance of those actions, for example whether she is guilty of the Italian equivalent of manslaughter.
Let’s suppose for the sake of argument that after Knox was convicted, some procedural flaw in the proceedings is uncovered, for example they used 5 jurors instead of 6, and therefore her conviction must be thrown out. It shouldn’t have much of an effect on this discussion.
Are you disputing that asking questions can be an effective way to make a point? ;)
I use them all the time and they are just as effective as any other logical persuasive technique. None of which works all that well on opposing attorneys. Generally speaking, I don’t get people to settle cases by persuading them I am right. The kind of people who are open to this sort of persuasion don’t really need it because they can do their own research and come to a reasonable conclusion. More emotional arguments work far better to persuade people to settle cases.
Cross-examination
You realize that cross-examination is about putting your words in the witness’s mouth, right?
Questions on cross-examination are really just sentences. Isn’t that correct?
Each question should articulate a point, shouldn’t it?
That point should be clear. Is that a yes?
In short, you are trying to show that the witness agrees with the point that you already think is true. Isn’t that correct?
So, a leading question that doesn’t clearly articulate what you are asserting is a failed question, isn’t it?
Moving on. Do you recall our earlier discussion about arguing motions before a judge?
Would you agree that your goal in the motion hearing is to persuade the court that your side of the argument has merit?
Regardless of the merits, being rude to the judge would probably not convince the judge to rule in your favor, right?
The judge would probably not be happy if you attempted to cross examine her, would she?
It would be rude? A little bit passive-aggressive?
No further questions.
I think a substantial part of why brazil is getting a poor reception here is that he’s trying to treat this debate as if he’s cross examining witnesses in order to persuade a jury, but the question of what is liable to persuade a jury is very different from what establishes a proposition as more or less likely. In general the population of this site is well aware of the sort of rhetorical techniques which can be used to convince people more effectively without introducing more valid evidence, and have a dim view of having them used on them, particularly in a way that’s so transparent as to come across as patronizing.
Also, I think I’m being passive aggressive by posting this in response to your comment when you’re not the one who has any need to read it, but at this point I’d rather be passive aggressive if it means less risk of getting sucked back into a debate with brazil.
I agree that some part of the negative response to brazil is his reliance on Dark Arts persuasion techniques.
But I think the bigger part of the negative response is his refusal to lay out and defend what he actually thinks. It has become quite aggravating.
In law, it is always possible to create a coherent counter-argument by changing the method of analysis. Appealing to the purpose of a rule can easily lead to a more favorable result. If not, then the literal text may be more favorable. Etc. But law is seldom concerned with your true rejection because it is generally quite obvious (i.e. “I don’t want to comply with that regulation” or “I don’t want to go to prison”).
But we genuinely want to reach better understanding, so generating coherent counter-arguments to our points gets really annoying when the speaker doesn’t actually believe the counter-argument. If brazil had a theory and presented it coherently, he would not give the impression that he was trying to yank our chains.
I agree that it’s aggravating, and I called him out on it earlier myself, but I think it’s also a rhetorical technique. By not saying what he thinks straight out, and continually asking more questions, brazil can wait for his interlocutor to produce an answer he can hold up as damning and use that as an excuse to dismiss their whole case. It’s a good way to convince a jury to discount someone’s testimony, but very bad for resolving questions of evidence.
Not necessarily. Sometimes more open-ended questions are appropriate.
No.
Not necessarily.
Again, not necessarily.
Yes, I think so.
Yes.
Agree.
I would say it depends on the judge, but generally not.
I’m not sure “rude” (ETA: or “passive-aggressive”) is the right word, but it’s usually not done.
Ok, my turn now:
Do you agree that it is sometimes very effective to approach a debate by using questions, or to use questions within a debate, either to get to the nub of a dispute or to highlight a critical issue which you adversary may be missing?
A simple yes or no will do :)
If you aren’t trying to make a point, but only to nitpick others, we’re done.
If somebody is making a point, it doesn’t necessarily follow that each and every question they ask articulates a point. For example, they might be nailing down the other side’s position. If you want to include that in “making a point,” then yes, I would agree with you that each question should make a point.
Now please answer my question:
Do you agree that it is sometimes very effective to approach a debate by using questions, or to use questions within a debate, either to get to the nub of a dispute or to highlight a critical issue which you adversary may be missing?
In football (American version), teams will sometimes have a change-of-pace running back. As opposes to the starting running back (A), the change-of-pace back (B) runs with a very different style. Often A is a “power” back, while B is a “speed” back.
The whole purpose of B is to go into the game and take advantage of some defensive tendency in dealing with A. Maybe B makes a huge run. Or maybe the defense over-corrects and A makes some big plays when he comes back into the game. But if your team’s only backs run change-of-pace style, there are two basic possibilities. Maybe your back is an incredible talent. But more likely, your running game is not very good.
To deconstruct the metaphor, statements are A and questions are B. Questions can be incredible. But usually they barely rise to the level of nitpicking. To be clear, that’s a general statement about questions, not directed at anyone in particular.
But if your debate tactics do not rely on statements, then your debate tactics are unlikely to persuade. That’s the point I was making about briefs. And your questions are not incredible. In fact, they would barely function as change-of-pace even if you relied on statements. The tactics you consistently choose are unlikely to work, so it is a fair question to ask whether I correctly understand your goal.
That would be fantastic
Putting aside the issue of persuasion, do you agree that a simple series of questions can sometimes demonstrate that a position is contradictory; that it doesn’t add up, so to speak?
Is the point you are making that even if I demonstrate something using questions, it’s less persuasive since it annoys people?
I can’t put persuasion to the side. That’s the whole point.
Getting to the nub of the issue is a tool in persuasion. But it is not the most important tool, and it isn’t close. When you are debating the naive, getting to the nub of the issue might be most of the work, but that doesn’t make it most important.
You say the purpose of asking questions is to get to the nub of the issue. I assert that we have gotten to the nub of the issue of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt (i.e. the strength of the evidence). If you think that is not the nub, then you are implying that we are naive.
In other circumstances, that would be quite an insult. But here, we are trying to be Less Wrong. So show us where we are wrong. All your questions do is continue to assert that we are wrong without showing why you think that is true.
That would be fantastic because it would give me a chance to see what ways I might be wrong.
I disagree; the point is to find truth, and getting to the nub of the issue (which can often mean “finding the most basic point of disagreement”) is a valuable tool to that end.
Edited to add: In this particular case, where our beliefs on this issue have little opportunity to usefully direct our action, the whole point is to find flaws in our reasoning that drive us away from truth, so we can learn to correct them in more meaningful situations.
I agree that I bundled a number of concepts into “persuasion.” To make it explicit, I used “persuasion” to mean trying to change another person’s mind. Since I aspire to practice the Light Arts, that meant moving the other person’s belief towards truth.
Exactly. Well said. I hope to learn how I err by observing how I fail to persuade.
I don’t mean to suggest that this is never an appropriate approach; I object to your suggestion that this is the only appropriate approach (and in particular in a situation like this, where it is that approach that seems to be breaking down).
It’s not that I disagree with you, so much as I don’t understand.
I could make lots of concessions about how the point you originally quoted is too simplistic. I suspect that you have a particular caveat in mind, and I suspect that I would agree with it.
I made the original statement in the context of explaining to brazil why he’s coming off like a troll.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true, depending on what you mean by “persuasion” Because it sounds like you might be making the argument that even if I am demonstrating my points effectively, I am not persuading anyone because I am annoying.
Anyway, my question was not komponisto-disingenous. i.e. I honestly would like an answer.
Do you dispute that asking questions is sometimes an effective way of getting to the nub of an issue and/or focusing attention on a critical issue?
It really is a simple yes or no question.
Even assuming that’s true, so what? It’s not an answer to my question.
And also to highlight critical issues.
That’s not true at all. “the strength of the evidence” is composed of dozens of sub-issues. For example, the question of the time of death based on the state of Kercher’s digestive system.
That’s not true either. My questions have shown that various people are unfamiliar with the important facts concerning the case.
I do agree it would be better (in terms of arguing for Knox’s guilt) if I laid out those important facts and I will do so (ETA: In a blog post) if I have the time. But there is also an issue of economy. I’m not thrilled about spending the time to educate people about the case if they have not done their basic homework. Making my case by asking questions forces people to do the same simple research I have done, such as reading a few posts from the anti-Knox site which was linked in the very first thread.
I will however lay out the case on a side issue right here and now:
komponisto asserted in another post as follows:
I was a bit surprised to see such a convincing-sounding argument which I had not heard before, so I decided to look into it. What I found is this:
According to various sources, Sollecito’s computer use ended at 9:10 not 9:30.
According to the sentencing report, Sollecito’s expert testified (based on the state of Kercher’s digestive system) that the time of death was between 9:30 and 10:30.
According to the sentencing report, the prosecution expert testified (based on the state of Kercher’s digestive system) that the time of death was as late as midnight.
It seems unlikely to me that the sentencing report would flat out lie about the expert testimony. It also seems unlikely that Sollecito’s expert would testify that the time of death could have been as late as 10:30 if there was solid evidence that the time of death was almost certainly before 9:30pm.
My conclusion is that komponisto is likely the victim of serious confirmation bias.
At the same time, I myself will concede that if his underlying assertions about the computer use and time of death are correct, I will need to re-evaluate my own probability estimate.
I think that dlthomas made an excellent point. Specifically, there are lots of goals each of us could be trying to achieve. You could be trying to cause us to have truer beliefs. You could be trying to understand your though processes and how they might err. Or some other goal.
If you cannot achieve your goals because LessWrong is incompatible with them, or the goals are incompatible with LessWrong, then it is perfectly rational for you to spend you time elsewhere. If so, I’m sorry that you were not able to achieve you goals. (As an aside, you have very high standards for an internet discussion if you expect us to do significant research beyond the posts on this site. I like high standards, but seldom live up to them).
First, this isn’t a simple yes or no question because you have acquired a reputation for trying to be avoid the issues. That said, lots of things help focus a discussion on the critical issues. Questions are one of those things. But your questions did not seem to have this goal.
There are lots of basis of guilt articulated that have nothing to do with evidence. Like asserting that Knox’s nationality, age, gender, or status as a college student living abroad have any relevance to her guilt.
Your marshaling of facts about the time of death vs. Sollecito’s computer usage is excellent, in that it provides a real basis for discussion. But is it your true rejection? You pointed out it was a side issue, and even if the prosecution expert was entirely correct, it would only show the evidence was consistent with guilt and would not be [ETA: very strong] evidence of guilt.
Most of your points seem good. However, this stood out. Consistency is from a Bayesian perspective evidence (albeit weak evidence) of guilt since it is more likely to occur in the guilty situation than in the non-guilty situation.
What stood out to me was that TimS pretty much missed the point of my argument on this issue. Which was that komponisto seems to be suffering from a serious case of confirmation bias.
The rational thing for komponisto to do would be to verify the points I made, and assuming they check out, thank me for helping him to become less wrong and then try to completely re-think the case. komponisto needs to realize that if he is dead wrong about an issue which he believes to be of central importance, it calls into question all of his thinking about the case, and in particular whether he is adequately scrutinizing the pro-Knox arguments and evidence and adequately considering the anti-Knox arguments (and evidence).
Also, TimS needs to ask himself why he missed the point of my argument. Was it just an oversight? Or is he subconsciously reluctant to go against the Captain of the Blue Team?
I thought you didn’t believe in referencing motivated cognition to determine truth.
Because if we were just weighing the amount of motivated cognition, the Italian prosecutor has engaged in substantially more than komponisto. The low-count DNA testing is nonsense, defense investigators showed a break-in was possible after prosecutors asserted otherwise, and the prosecution theory revolved around Satanism and orgies. At this point, nothing about stomach digestion and computer use timing could persuade me that guilt was more likely that innocence. In short, komponisto could be totally wrong about it and it won’t significantly affect my opinion of the ultimate issue.
If you think so, then you misread my post.
Let’s assume for the moment that’s true. In that case, if the Italian prosecutor were posting here, then just like komponisto, the rational thing for him to do would be to re-think the case.
ETA: Since you seem to keep missing the point of my post, I think it will be helpful to focus things with a few of those dreaded “questions.”
(1) Do you agree that a few posts back, komponisto posted an argument which seems to be dead wrong?
(2) Do you agree that this argument seems to be pretty important to komponisto?
(3) Do you agree that komponisto seems to have fallen victim to confirmation bias? i.e. he failed to scrutinize a pro-Knox argument most likely because he believes so strongly in her innocence?
(4) Do you agree that this calls into question all of komponisto’s thinking about the case?
(5) Do you agree that komponisto should thank me for helping to make him less wrong?
(6) And if komponisto instead writes me off as a “clack,” isn’t that just more of his bias at work?
(7) Finally, if the Italian prosecutor is more biased than komponisto, but in the opposite direction, do you agree it does not change the fact that komponisto himself is biased?
I agree, but again, so what? Isn’t what you are saying pretty much obvious? Why are you telling me this?
Well, the very first thread on the subject invited participants to read somewhat detailed summaries of the arguments (and evidence) for and against Knox’s guilt. Anyway, if you assert a very low probability of Knox’s guilt (which many people here do) (ETA: or a very high probability of Knox’s guilt), then either (1) you have done the research yourself and reached some conclusion which may or may not be justified; (2) you are relying on other posts here; or (3) you are fooling yourself. If number 2 is the case, then my point about komponisto should give you serious pause.
I don’t see what my reputation has to do with it. Either my assertion about questions being useful is true or it isn’t.
Can you give me an example of a question I asked, and what you feel the actual goal of the question was?
So what? It doesn’t change the fact that “strength of the evidence”—as a general proposition—is not the nub of the issue. To put it metaphorically, you are missing the trees for the forest.
Of course, but you need to understand the point of my argument—which is that komponisto seems to have royally screwed up. If you are basing your opinion about guilt or innocence on other peoples posts here—that should give you a lot of pause.
This may be a cause for part of the problematic interactions you are having here. Less Wrong in general strives for a lower degree of hostility on average than the average message board. (Indeed, if we’re not succeeding at that then we’ve failed rationality at so many different levels we might as well spend our time playing Robot Unicorn Attack rather than posting here.) Less Wrong is not the only internet forum that is somewhat successful in this regard. A major part of being successful about this sort of thing is as far as I can tell simply being open to the possibility that interactions on the internet with people one disagrees with don’t need to be hostile. There’s the important related step of realizing that people who disagree are not necessarily stupid, evil, ignorant or crazy. So, try to interact in a way that doesn’t assume that being on a message board necessitates hostile interaction (if it helps imagine that the conversation is occurring over a few beers rather than a message board.)
I don’t know about the “average message board,” but I would say there is still a good deal of hostility here, both in the sense of people being resistant to evidence which contradicts their position as well as plain nastiness.
For example, a few posts back, komponisto accused me of asking questions which were “disingenuous.” When I pointed out that I had made it reasonably clear from the get-go that the questions were for rhetorical purposes, he still insisted that my questions were disingenuous. (Actually, he made his comments more personal by referring to “your disingenuousness ”)
I think the non-hostile thing to do would have been to say “Ok, I agree that your questions were not disingenuous but I still object to them for the following reasons . . . ”
Now that you’ve seen that sentence I added late, do you have a response? Because not responding really calls into question whether you really want to persuade us at all. One might even assert ducking that point was . . . disingenuous.
Sure, I think that sometimes laying things out positively is an effective way to make an argument; and sometimes a more socratic approach is better.
Since you mentioned the fact that I am an attorney, I will give you an example from my work. I have a breach of contract case pending in the general trial court of my state. My client was employed by the defendant and is alleging that she is owed a severance payment under her employment contract.
After we filed suit, the defendant served a counterclaim, i.e. they sued her back. The counterclaim alleges that my client breached her obligations to the company by deleting company information from her laptop computer before returning it. I asked my client about the allegations, and she insisted (fairly credibly) that all of the stuff she deleted was duplicative of information already in the defendant’s possession, i.e the defendant didn’t actually lose anything as a result of her actions.
I called up the attorney for the defendant and explained all this to him. I urged him to stop wasting everyone’s time with this BS counterclaim. I explained to him that his client apparently hadn’t actually lost any data or software as a result of my client’s actions. After talking to his client about it (and arguing with me a few times), he refused to withdraw the counterclaim for some BS reason which didn’t make a lot of sense.
My next step was to serve what’s called an “interrogatory” on him. An interrogatory is a formal written question. In this case, I asked him to provide a calculation of the damages his client had suffered as a result of my client’s alleged misconduct. (Note that the interrogatory was komponisto-disingenuous, i.e. I already knew the answer.)
He tried to duck the question, and at the next discovery conference, I got the court to order him to answer the question by a certain date. When that day rolled around, the attorney faxed me a letter saying that he wanted to withdraw the counterclaim.
So you see, questions are often a very effective and economical way to shine the spotlight on a critical point.
As I see it, there was only one important question in that story (the interrogatory).
This conversation was an exchange of statements. “No merit because X” “Yes merit because ”
May I speculate that your motion to compel and the judge’s order were not filled with questions.
Also a statement.
If you believe that this type of questioning is a virtue in debating because it is a virtue in discovery practice, you are simply mistaken. Also, many questions that are appropriate for interrogatories are not appropriate for cross-examination.
Well there wasn’t really a pause, as best as I recall.
There was no motion to compel. I simply mentioned it at the discovery conference that I would like an answer to my question. The court officer looked at my adversary and asked, in substance, what exactly the problem was in answering it [Another one of those pesky questions!!] and my adversary agreed to supply an answer.
Agreed. So what? I’m not arguing that statements or assertions have no place in litigation (or internet discussions).
Not because it is a virtue in discovery practice per se, but the same underlying principle is at often at work. A question is often an effective (and economical) way of getting to the nub of a dispute and/or focusing attention on a critical issue.
Agree, but so what? I’m not trying to say that internet debating is just like litigation.
Since we are talking about questions, I will ironically ask you a question:
Do you dispute that asking questions is sometimes an effective way of getting to the nub of an issue and/or focusing attention on a critical issue?
Did you read his final sentence?
No, I didn’t notice it. Either I wasn’t paying attention or he added it after I hit “reply.”
In fairness, I did edit to add it. Didn’t realize it would be read so quickly.
The most obvious of these facts being the futility of trying to fix people who are wrong on the internet. After sufficient opportunity for the wrongee to get a clue further effort is more likely to hasten a transition to outright troll than to actually improve their thinking.
By the way, I no longer engage with “wedrifid” due to his incoherent posts and personal insults.
(I am not one of the downvoters of the parent. While I obviously don’t think my posts are often incoherent I can certainly understand the objection to my comment. It does, after all, represent proposing a motion that we start to consider arguing with brazil specifically over the Amanda Knox issue to be deprecated as troll feeding!)