I’m happy that you’ve finally posted this. However, much of this piece makes me cringe. I don’t know if it is the style, an actual failure of logic or something else. Parts like:
It’s interesting that in this case, Sollecito had taken a strong interest in deviant pornography. I think he would have been really turned on by the idea of setting up a pretty white girl to be raped by a black thug.
Really doesn’t help your case more than simply inflame issues. Moreover, “deviant pornography”, seriously? What fraction of the population watches BDSM themed porn or other forms of non-standard porn? The fraction is orders of magnitude larger than the set of people who murder or arrange for murders. It isn’t even obvious to me that that’s even more common among murderers.
I’m happy that you’ve finally posted this. However, much of this piece makes me cringe. I don’t know if it is the style, an actual failure of logic or something else. Parts like:
It’s interesting that in this case, Sollecito had taken a strong interest in deviant pornography. I think he would have been really turned on by the idea of setting up a pretty white girl to be raped by a black thug.
Really doesn’t help your case more than simply inflame issues. Moreover, “deviant pornography”, seriously? What fraction of the population watches BDSM themed porn or other forms of non-standard porn? The fraction is orders of magnitude larger than the set of people who murder or arrange form murders. It isn’t even obvious to me that that’s even more common among murderers.
Frankly, I would guess a big part of the problem is that you did not read my post very carefully. Because you seem to be under the impression that I argued that Sollecito’s (alleged) interest in deviant pornography was evidence of guilt.
I even went so far as to put the following at the bottom the post:
Second, please try to respond to the arguments I actually make. I can already imagine some joker saying “Sollecito’s interest in deviant pornography is not evidence that he was a murder!!!” Dude, that’s not the argument I am making. I have no tolerance for people who strawman me.
If the porn is not relevant either way, then it should not be mentioned. Mentioning it in a short piece invites the viewer to interpret it that way or, if they read it so carefully as to (non-)interpret it as you say, it comes off as sheer rhetoric and an attempt to contaminate the reader’s mind with unfounded assertions.
(“Ladies and gentleman of the jury, I would like you to imagine the defendant late one night holding down his daughter and raping her repeatedly in every orifice in defiance of every law of God and man. There is of course no evidence he has actually done this and we are here to discuss his tax evasion, but I simply wanted you to imagine it for a little bit. Moving on to the first tax filing exhibit...”)
If anything, I would say that the porn is evidence against Sollecito’s guilt. After all, considering how common “black guy rapes white girl” porn is, if that’s something he was interested in seeing and his porn viewing is indicative of his interests, then it would be more reasonable to expect him to have it than not.
Anyway, the idea that the porn could be not evidence, but something to show a plausible scenario, is simply nonsense. The prior probability for Sollecito’s guilt reflects all possible scenarios in which Sollecito could have been involved, and is based on our best available knowledge of how often people in his circumstances commit the sort of crime attributed to him. Any meaningful information must either show that our prior was inappropriate (people in Sollecito’s reference class commit this sort of crime more often than we thought) or show that Sollecito in particular was more likely to have committed this particular crime. Brazil disavowed its relevance in the latter respect, and it’s obviously not relevant in the former.
If the porn is not relevant either way, then it should not be mentioned.
I think it’s relevant because it helps to show that there is a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox murders her roommate; that it’s not like asserting that Elvis was actually an extra-terrestrial.
It’s the same reason I mentioned the Janet Chandler murder. The fact that one white girl took part in the rape and murder of another white girl in Michigan in the 70s is not evidence that Knox is guilty either. Again, it just helps to show that such a scenario is remotely plausible.
I would hope and expect that many of the posters on this board will accept this point about remote plausibility without any narrative. Such people should feel free to ignore that part of my blog post.
I think you’ve run afoul of the principle of charity here, in that your piece was taken as an argumentative essay and thus it was charitable to assume that each part of it was intended to support your stated conclusion. In future it would help a lot if you made your conclusions explicit at each stage of the argument rather than leaving them implicit because otherwise readers are forced to guess at what you think the evidence means.
Having read your piece I also think that you’re reasoning from some false premises. If you read enough of the popular material on the internet about this case it becomes evident fairly quickly that in pro-guilt circles the evidence has taken on a life of its own and grown in the telling.
There is no actual evidence that Sollecito had ” a strong interest in deviant pornography”, although plenty of sites would claim that. There is evidence he was once in possession of one film clip involving bestiality in his university years, which is not proof of a strong interest, and evidence he was in possession of a mainstream and unremarkable manga book, but that’s the extent of the evidence that he had any deviant sexual tendencies.
Similarly there was no evidence Amanda Knox had a promiscuous lifestyle by student standards nor that Knox had numerous male visitors. Knox gave a complete list of her lifetime sexual partners to the police when they (falsely) told her she had tested HIV+, and she wasn’t any more promiscuous than your average student.
It’s simply not true that Knox and Sollecito called the police after the police had already arrived. That misconception arose due to incorrect police testimony but it was later cleared up.
There was never any evidence that the break-in at the house was staged and the appeal court exonerated Knox and Sollecito of those charges on the grounds that particular crime had never in fact happened.
To your credit you state clearly that you are basing your opinion on popular sources and that you are open to the possibility that your evidence is faulty, and it’s no sin to reason rigorously from false premises and get to a false conclusion.
(By contrast the evidence of egregious police misconduct in the Knox case is very strong indeed. Italy is a curiosity in that it has no meaningful police oversight body and hence the police can get away with virtually anything. In every other First World country the relevant misconduct investigation body would have their metaphorical foot right up the Perugian authorities’ collective metaphorical posterior by now).
I think you’ve run afoul of the principle of charity here, in that your piece was taken as an argumentative essay and thus it was charitable to assume that each part of it was intended to support your stated conclusion. In future it would help a lot if you made your conclusions explicit at each stage of the argument rather than leaving them implicit because otherwise readers are forced to guess at what you think the evidence means.
I would say it doesn’t get much more explicit than this:
Of course, none of the above is proof or even evidence that Knox was involved, it’s pure speculation and I would write it off if there weren’t such compelling evidence against Knox.
In fact, I would go so far as to suspect that some folks here are going on the principle of anti-charity, i.e. looking for the easiest way to attack my post while ignoring the core argument.
Having read your piece I also think that you’re reasoning from some false premises.
Well let’s discuss them then.
There is no actual evidence that Sollecito had ” a strong interest in deviant pornography”,
I would say that having been in possession of a bestiality film as well as “comic books that ’mixed pornography and horror‛” is pretty good evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography. I’m not sure that it matters, since Sollecito’s alleged interest in deviant pornography is not central to my argument. But perhaps it’s worth discussing.
You seem to dispute that Sollecito was in the possession of such comic books (plural.) Do you happen to have a cite and a link? I am going by the police report as quoted on page 103 of the sentencing report.
Similarly there was no evidence Amanda Knox had a promiscuous lifestyle by student standards nor that Knox had numerous male visitors
I’m not sure what “promiscuous lifestyle by student standards” means. According to one report I read (ETA: this morning), Knox had sex with 3 men after her arrival in Italy and 4 prior. Disagree?
As far as male visitors goes I was able to find this quote:
“Another friend, Robyn Butterworth talked about how their friend Meredith felt awkward because Knox didn’t flush the toilet. All of the girls recalled Meredith talking about how Knox brought strange men home and how she kept in the bathroom a transparent tote bag with condoms and a pink vibrator shaped like a rabbit.
I’m not sure what “numerous” means to you, but it seems clear to me that at a minimum, there is evidence to believe that Knox engaged in sexual activities which Kercher would have resented and perceived as slutty. Agreed?
It’s simply not true that Knox and Sollecito called the police after the police had already arrived. That misconception arose due to incorrect police testimony but it was later cleared up.
Well in your view, when did the police arrive? And more importantly, at the time the police arrived, were Knox and Sollecito concerned about Kercher’s absence? If you look at the evidence carefully, you will see that there is no good answer for this question which is consistent with Knox being innocent.
Also, do you agree that Sollecito at one point stated to police that he had not called the police at the time the police showed up?
There was never any evidence that the break-in at the house was staged
That’s simply not true. For example, Romanelli apparently testified to finding glass on top of her dislodged belongings. She also testified that nothing was taken. And Sollecito told the police that nothing was taken before he should have known it. Now, you may want to debate the strength of this evidence, but it’s still evidence that the break-in was staged.
and it’s no sin to reason rigorously from false premises and get to a false conclusion.
I agree. Could you please share your own sources? Maybe we can figure out which of us (perhaps both) are reasoning from false premises.
As far as sources go, it’s just a fact that so far you have provided few sources and those were vague. I’m happy to take part in a conversation where we each cite our sources properly, or where neither do, but not an asymmetrical one where I am obliged to cite sources and you are not.
I would say that having been in possession of a bestiality film as well as “comic books that ’mixed pornography and horror‛” is pretty good evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography.
I wouldn’t say that at all. Potential alternative reasons for being in possession of a bestiality film clip include curiosity, desire to shock, or an interest in deviant pornography which does not rise to the level of “strong”. The comic book in question was ‘Blood: The Last Vampire’ which is such a mainstream affair that the animated movie shows regularly on the public broadcasting channel SBS where I live in Australia.
If Sollecito had been found to have a few gigabytes of rape and BDSM porn on his hard drive I would take that to be evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography. One clip he possessed once in the past and a mundane comic book do not to my mind constitute strong evidence.
I’m not sure what “numerous” means to you, but it seems clear to me that at a minimum, there is evidence to believe that Knox engaged in sexual activities which Kercher would have resented and perceived as slutty. Agreed?
Well no, not based on that evidence. To begin with this was court testimony from long after the murder, from people who have had over a year to cherry-pick anything Meredith could have said at any time which could be taken as evidence of friction between Knox and Kercher. You have to avoid the base rate fallacy here: What are the odds that we would hear testimony like this if there was no serious animosity between the two, under these circumstances? I’d say pretty good.
Bear in mind that if the two had ever, say, had a nasty argument or one had stolen the other’s clothes or anything more serious had ever occurred we would be hearing about that instead. For students living together if the worst instances of friction anyone can recall are complaints about monotonous guitar practice, a transparent toiletries bag and (as I recall) a single instance of Knox bringing a strange man home, who she did not (as far as we can ascertain from her list of sexual contacts) sleep with, then they probably got along quite well.
By all accounts dating from before the murder the two got on well, went on outings together and were friends.
Well in your view, when did the police arrive? And more importantly, at the time the police arrived, were Knox and Sollecito concerned about Kercher’s absence? If you look at the evidence carefully, you will see that there is no good answer for this question which is consistent with Knox being innocent.
The postal police arrived at 13:00 as established by security camera evidence. The carabinieri arrived at 13:34. Raffaele called the police at 12:51. Knox and Sollecito had been trying to find out where Meredith was and whether she was okay from 12:07 onwards as established by phone records.
The postal police incorrectly claimed they had arrived at 12:35 but this was based on their unassisted recollection and was falsified by the security camera nearby.
That’s simply not true. For example, Romanelli apparently testified to finding glass on top of her dislodged belongings. She also testified that nothing was taken. And Sollecito told the police that nothing was taken before he should have known it.
She also testified to finding glass under some of her belongings and mixed through them, and since some things were in fact taken (money and mobile phones) the fact that some things were not taken is not evidence for staging over a real break-in. Sollecito did state that nothing was taken but at that stage he did not know anything had been taken, and while an ideal rationalist with time to think would have said “I am aware of no evidence anything was taken” a university student under stress being imprecise is not more consistent with guilt than innocence.
There were also scuff marks on the wall outside consistent with someone climbing in, freshly exposed brickwork consistent with someone chipping the wall while climbing in, white powdery deposits in Filomena’s room consistent with someone having scuffed their feet on the white wall outside while climbing in, and several large chunks of glass on the outside windowsill consistent with someone positioned on the window sill manually enlarging the hole in the glass to access the window’s latch. This is all evident from photographs of the crime scene yet the police inexplicably testified that there was no evidence of a break-in.
The comic book in question was ‘Blood: The Last Vampire’ which is such a mainstream affair that the animated movie shows regularly on the public broadcasting channel SBS where I live in Australia.
Wait, that was what was being referenced when Brazil quoted
“comic books that ’mixed pornography and horror‛”
‽ My high school anime club showed the movie of that twice (we ran under schedule one day) so I remember it well… Good grief. And Brazil is still arguing. I don’t know why you guys are still bothering—I’m not going to, even if it seems tempting.
I’m happy to take part in a conversation where we each cite our sources properly, or where neither do, but not an asymmetrical one where I am obliged to cite sources and you are not.
The way I do things with sources is that if somebody represents to me that he is seriously skeptical of a claim I have made, I will normally try to find a source. Similarly, I will not ask for a source (or cite) unless I am seriously skeptical of a claim which has been made. The reason I do things this way is because I do think in general people should provide sources (or cites) to back up their claims, but at the same time I have encountered problems in online debate with people who demand cites for claims which they don’t seriously dispute, presumably just to distract the discussion from the critical issues. (Also, keep in mind that for some claims, general knowledge, simple observation, and common sense are potentially reasonable or adequate sources. )
So the upshot is that I will try to find and provide a cite or source for any claim I make if you represent to me that you are seriously skeptical of the claim.
With that out of the way, I am seriously skeptical of your apparent claim that Sollecito was in the possession of a “mainstream and unremarkable manga book” and not multiple “comic books that mixed pornography and horror.” I have provided a cite for my position, now please provide a cite for yours.
Well no, not based on that evidence.
I’m not sure I understand your point.
Do you agree that there was testimony that Kercher advised her friends that Knox had brought “strange men [plural]” over?
Do you agree that such testimony is evidence (although perhaps not proof) that Knox did in fact bring multiple men to the residence?
Based on your knowledge of human nature, do you agree that there is a pretty good chance that Kercher would have resented such behavior?
The postal police arrived at 13:00 as established by security camera evidence.
Can you give me a cite for this please? (I am seriously skeptical)
Raffaele called the police at 12:51. Knox and Sollecito had been trying to find out where Meredith was and whether she was okay from 12:07 onwards as established by phone records.
Ok, then here’s a couple questions for you:
If Knox and Sollecito were concerned about Kercher’s absence when the postal police arrived, why did Knox (apparently) advise them that Kercher normally kept her door locked?
Why did Sollecito (apparently) later admit to the authorities that he had not yet called the police with the postal police showed up?
(And yes, I will provide sources for this stuff if you represent to me that you are seriously skeptical.)
She also testified to finding glass under some of her belongings
I’m not sure what your point is here. Do you dispute that she testified to finding glass on top of some of her belongings? Do you dispute that this is evidence (evidence, not conclusive proof) of a staged break-in?
some things were in fact taken (money and mobile phones) the fact that some things were not taken
Well do you agree that (1) the evidence seems to indicate that nothing was taken from Romenelli’s room; and (2) according to Sollecito’s story, he had seen Romanelli’s room but not Kercher’s room at that point?
a university student under stress being imprecise is not more consistent with guilt than innocence.
Well was he asked about it or did he volunteer it? As far as I know, he first volunteered that there was no theft and then when asked if anything was taken, he said “no.” I could understand him giving an imprecise answer if asked about it, but why would he volunteer that nothing was taken?
There were also scuff marks on the wall outside consistent with someone climbing in,
Again, I am seriously skeptical of this claim. Please back it up with a quote, link, and cite.
Yes, I saw that, but I found it to be as either disingenuous or at best unhelpful. If it is irrelevant then it shouldn’t be mentioned. In context if you are using it for evidence then claiming you aren’t isn’t helpful and simply brings up something that will make people annoyed.
The same thing could be said about my mention of the Janet Chandler murder. The fact that one white girl helped to rape and murder another white girl (who was her roommate) back in the 70s in Michigan is not evidence of Knox’s guilt.
But as I mentioned in the blog post, I think both are helpful to show a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox is guilty.
If you disagree, then I think that under the “principle of charity,” you should simply ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 (which you apparently consider to be irrelevant, inflammatory fluff) and consider the core of my argument.
Yes, and the mention of the Chandler case also falls into the same category.
both are helpful to show a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox is guilty.
Does something increase plausibility or show a plausible scenario? Then it is evidence. If it doesn’t increase plausibility then it isn’t evidence. You can’t have it both ways.
Well, new information could suggest that you applied the wrong prior. If you’re trying to calculate the likelihood of a person’s guilt, and you find that the crime is more common than you originally thought, you’ll have to assign a higher probability of guilt, but you could reasonably say that it’s not evidence of guilt, because you’re revising P(A) rather than introducing a new (B).
This could be said to apply to the mention of the Chandler case, if you don’t have any information on how common such crimes are that would screen it off, but it clearly does not apply to the porn.
Does something increase plausibility or show a plausible scenario? Then it is evidence.
Well sure if you want to take a broad view of what constitutes “evidence,” then everything in my scenario constitutes “evidence.” (ETA: I would take a slightly narrower view, but perhaps it makes sense to agree on a definition.)
Similarly, by your standard the fact that had had sex with at least 7 men by the age of 20 is “evidence.” Why? First, because it raises the probability that she suffers from borderline personality disorder and therefore is lacking in empathy. Someone lacking in empathy is more likely to take part in a serious crime against another person. Second, because it raises the probability that she had male visitors which would have increased tension between her and Kercher, increasing the chances that she had a motive.
Anyway, I have a question for you: Why do you continue to ignore my core argument for Knox’s guilt?
Similarly, by your standard the fact that had had sex with at least 7 men by the age of 20 is “evidence.” Why? First, because it raises the probability that she suffers from borderline personality disorder and therefore is lacking in empathy.
Yes, this is all evidence according to the Bayesian definition. Calling E evidence (with respect to prior knowledge X) for a proposition H just means that p(H | E & X) > p(H | X). That is why quantifying evidence is so important. Just how much evidence is it? If all the evidence you offer raises the probability of H by only a few percent from a very low prior, then it should have practically no effect on how we treat Knox.
Yes, this is all evidence according to the Bayesian definition. Calling E evidence (with respect to prior knowledge X) for a proposition H just means that p(H | E & X) > p(H | X). That is why quantifying evidence is so important. Just how much evidence is it? If all the evidence you offer raises the probability of H by only a few percent from a very low prior, then it should have practically no effect on how we treat Knox.
I basically agree, but sometimes it’s helpful to have a story or narrative or illustration before jumping in to look at the important evidence. That’s just how the human mind works, or at least most peoples’ minds. I realize this can be dangerous, for example it can lead to a “conjunction fallacy,” but I was careful to lable my narrative as speculation.
Just today I was browsing this web site and I came across an article called “Existential Risk” which was complete with (1) a picture of the Earth; (2) a likely apocryphal story about a man who singlehandedly prevented nuclear war; and (3) a picture of a Stanford torus. Is this cheap emotional manipulation? Perhaps, but again, I think this kind of story-telling can be useful to get the mind ready to focus on the meat of the argument.
One can ask what the likelihood is that we are reaching a critical juncture where the decisions and dilligence of just a few humans in the artificial intelligence community will have a massive impact on the future of humanity. Strictly speaking, the fact that some Russian dude did (or didn’t) singlehandedly prevent a nuclear war shouldn’t have much impact on our estimate of this probability. But I think it still might be worth mentioning to demonstrate the plausibility of the claim that one person can have a big impact.
In the same way, I think it’s worth mentioning the Janet Chandler case from the 70s. But again, if you object to this approach, just ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 of my blog post.
In the same way, I think it’s worth mentioning the Janet Chandler case from the 70s. But again, if you object to this approach, just ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 of my blog post.
I agree that it’s worth mentioning Janet Chandler. It would be better to treat it seriously as evidence, rather than merely as a narrative framing device. To treat it seriously as evidence, you should use it to help establish a prior probability for Knox’s guilt (like Desrtopa did).
It would be better to treat it seriously as evidence, rather than merely as a narrative framing device. To treat it seriously as evidence, you should use it to help establish a prior probability for Knox’s guilt
It seems to me that “narrative framing device” is basically a poor man’s method of estimating a prior probability. Here’s what I said in my blog post:
The point is that there are levels of extraordinary. Claiming that Knox participated in her roommate’s murder is not like claiming that the president is actually an extra-terrestrial from Mars.
Of course in terms of assessing probabilities, it might be better if there were a lot of precedents, for example in a situation where a husband is suspected of killing his wife. But here there’s not a lot to go on.
I await with bated breath.
I’m glad to know you are so interested in what I have to say.
ETA: My blog post is up as of today (11/17/11)
A link to said post would help.
http://fortaleza84.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/is-amanda-knox-guilty/
I’m happy that you’ve finally posted this. However, much of this piece makes me cringe. I don’t know if it is the style, an actual failure of logic or something else. Parts like:
Really doesn’t help your case more than simply inflame issues. Moreover, “deviant pornography”, seriously? What fraction of the population watches BDSM themed porn or other forms of non-standard porn? The fraction is orders of magnitude larger than the set of people who murder or arrange for murders. It isn’t even obvious to me that that’s even more common among murderers.
Frankly, I would guess a big part of the problem is that you did not read my post very carefully. Because you seem to be under the impression that I argued that Sollecito’s (alleged) interest in deviant pornography was evidence of guilt.
I even went so far as to put the following at the bottom the post:
If the porn is not relevant either way, then it should not be mentioned. Mentioning it in a short piece invites the viewer to interpret it that way or, if they read it so carefully as to (non-)interpret it as you say, it comes off as sheer rhetoric and an attempt to contaminate the reader’s mind with unfounded assertions.
(“Ladies and gentleman of the jury, I would like you to imagine the defendant late one night holding down his daughter and raping her repeatedly in every orifice in defiance of every law of God and man. There is of course no evidence he has actually done this and we are here to discuss his tax evasion, but I simply wanted you to imagine it for a little bit. Moving on to the first tax filing exhibit...”)
If anything, I would say that the porn is evidence against Sollecito’s guilt. After all, considering how common “black guy rapes white girl” porn is, if that’s something he was interested in seeing and his porn viewing is indicative of his interests, then it would be more reasonable to expect him to have it than not.
Anyway, the idea that the porn could be not evidence, but something to show a plausible scenario, is simply nonsense. The prior probability for Sollecito’s guilt reflects all possible scenarios in which Sollecito could have been involved, and is based on our best available knowledge of how often people in his circumstances commit the sort of crime attributed to him. Any meaningful information must either show that our prior was inappropriate (people in Sollecito’s reference class commit this sort of crime more often than we thought) or show that Sollecito in particular was more likely to have committed this particular crime. Brazil disavowed its relevance in the latter respect, and it’s obviously not relevant in the former.
I think it’s relevant because it helps to show that there is a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox murders her roommate; that it’s not like asserting that Elvis was actually an extra-terrestrial.
It’s the same reason I mentioned the Janet Chandler murder. The fact that one white girl took part in the rape and murder of another white girl in Michigan in the 70s is not evidence that Knox is guilty either. Again, it just helps to show that such a scenario is remotely plausible.
I would hope and expect that many of the posters on this board will accept this point about remote plausibility without any narrative. Such people should feel free to ignore that part of my blog post.
I think you’ve run afoul of the principle of charity here, in that your piece was taken as an argumentative essay and thus it was charitable to assume that each part of it was intended to support your stated conclusion. In future it would help a lot if you made your conclusions explicit at each stage of the argument rather than leaving them implicit because otherwise readers are forced to guess at what you think the evidence means.
Having read your piece I also think that you’re reasoning from some false premises. If you read enough of the popular material on the internet about this case it becomes evident fairly quickly that in pro-guilt circles the evidence has taken on a life of its own and grown in the telling.
There is no actual evidence that Sollecito had ” a strong interest in deviant pornography”, although plenty of sites would claim that. There is evidence he was once in possession of one film clip involving bestiality in his university years, which is not proof of a strong interest, and evidence he was in possession of a mainstream and unremarkable manga book, but that’s the extent of the evidence that he had any deviant sexual tendencies.
Similarly there was no evidence Amanda Knox had a promiscuous lifestyle by student standards nor that Knox had numerous male visitors. Knox gave a complete list of her lifetime sexual partners to the police when they (falsely) told her she had tested HIV+, and she wasn’t any more promiscuous than your average student.
It’s simply not true that Knox and Sollecito called the police after the police had already arrived. That misconception arose due to incorrect police testimony but it was later cleared up.
There was never any evidence that the break-in at the house was staged and the appeal court exonerated Knox and Sollecito of those charges on the grounds that particular crime had never in fact happened.
To your credit you state clearly that you are basing your opinion on popular sources and that you are open to the possibility that your evidence is faulty, and it’s no sin to reason rigorously from false premises and get to a false conclusion.
(By contrast the evidence of egregious police misconduct in the Knox case is very strong indeed. Italy is a curiosity in that it has no meaningful police oversight body and hence the police can get away with virtually anything. In every other First World country the relevant misconduct investigation body would have their metaphorical foot right up the Perugian authorities’ collective metaphorical posterior by now).
I would say it doesn’t get much more explicit than this:
In fact, I would go so far as to suspect that some folks here are going on the principle of anti-charity, i.e. looking for the easiest way to attack my post while ignoring the core argument.
Well let’s discuss them then.
I would say that having been in possession of a bestiality film as well as “comic books that ’mixed pornography and horror‛” is pretty good evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography. I’m not sure that it matters, since Sollecito’s alleged interest in deviant pornography is not central to my argument. But perhaps it’s worth discussing.
You seem to dispute that Sollecito was in the possession of such comic books (plural.) Do you happen to have a cite and a link? I am going by the police report as quoted on page 103 of the sentencing report.
I’m not sure what “promiscuous lifestyle by student standards” means. According to one report I read (ETA: this morning), Knox had sex with 3 men after her arrival in Italy and 4 prior. Disagree?
As far as male visitors goes I was able to find this quote:
I’m not sure what “numerous” means to you, but it seems clear to me that at a minimum, there is evidence to believe that Knox engaged in sexual activities which Kercher would have resented and perceived as slutty. Agreed?
Well in your view, when did the police arrive? And more importantly, at the time the police arrived, were Knox and Sollecito concerned about Kercher’s absence? If you look at the evidence carefully, you will see that there is no good answer for this question which is consistent with Knox being innocent.
Also, do you agree that Sollecito at one point stated to police that he had not called the police at the time the police showed up?
That’s simply not true. For example, Romanelli apparently testified to finding glass on top of her dislodged belongings. She also testified that nothing was taken. And Sollecito told the police that nothing was taken before he should have known it. Now, you may want to debate the strength of this evidence, but it’s still evidence that the break-in was staged.
I agree. Could you please share your own sources? Maybe we can figure out which of us (perhaps both) are reasoning from false premises.
As far as sources go, it’s just a fact that so far you have provided few sources and those were vague. I’m happy to take part in a conversation where we each cite our sources properly, or where neither do, but not an asymmetrical one where I am obliged to cite sources and you are not.
I wouldn’t say that at all. Potential alternative reasons for being in possession of a bestiality film clip include curiosity, desire to shock, or an interest in deviant pornography which does not rise to the level of “strong”. The comic book in question was ‘Blood: The Last Vampire’ which is such a mainstream affair that the animated movie shows regularly on the public broadcasting channel SBS where I live in Australia.
If Sollecito had been found to have a few gigabytes of rape and BDSM porn on his hard drive I would take that to be evidence of a strong interest in deviant pornography. One clip he possessed once in the past and a mundane comic book do not to my mind constitute strong evidence.
Well no, not based on that evidence. To begin with this was court testimony from long after the murder, from people who have had over a year to cherry-pick anything Meredith could have said at any time which could be taken as evidence of friction between Knox and Kercher. You have to avoid the base rate fallacy here: What are the odds that we would hear testimony like this if there was no serious animosity between the two, under these circumstances? I’d say pretty good.
Bear in mind that if the two had ever, say, had a nasty argument or one had stolen the other’s clothes or anything more serious had ever occurred we would be hearing about that instead. For students living together if the worst instances of friction anyone can recall are complaints about monotonous guitar practice, a transparent toiletries bag and (as I recall) a single instance of Knox bringing a strange man home, who she did not (as far as we can ascertain from her list of sexual contacts) sleep with, then they probably got along quite well.
By all accounts dating from before the murder the two got on well, went on outings together and were friends.
The postal police arrived at 13:00 as established by security camera evidence. The carabinieri arrived at 13:34. Raffaele called the police at 12:51. Knox and Sollecito had been trying to find out where Meredith was and whether she was okay from 12:07 onwards as established by phone records.
The postal police incorrectly claimed they had arrived at 12:35 but this was based on their unassisted recollection and was falsified by the security camera nearby.
She also testified to finding glass under some of her belongings and mixed through them, and since some things were in fact taken (money and mobile phones) the fact that some things were not taken is not evidence for staging over a real break-in. Sollecito did state that nothing was taken but at that stage he did not know anything had been taken, and while an ideal rationalist with time to think would have said “I am aware of no evidence anything was taken” a university student under stress being imprecise is not more consistent with guilt than innocence.
There were also scuff marks on the wall outside consistent with someone climbing in, freshly exposed brickwork consistent with someone chipping the wall while climbing in, white powdery deposits in Filomena’s room consistent with someone having scuffed their feet on the white wall outside while climbing in, and several large chunks of glass on the outside windowsill consistent with someone positioned on the window sill manually enlarging the hole in the glass to access the window’s latch. This is all evident from photographs of the crime scene yet the police inexplicably testified that there was no evidence of a break-in.
Wait, that was what was being referenced when Brazil quoted
‽ My high school anime club showed the movie of that twice (we ran under schedule one day) so I remember it well… Good grief. And Brazil is still arguing. I don’t know why you guys are still bothering—I’m not going to, even if it seems tempting.
I have considered arguing with brazil about Knox to be troll feeding for some time.
(Note that brazil84 earned –208 Karma in the last 30 days, with most of the recent comments having moderately negative rating.)
Outside view explication: a break-in reliably leaves more evidence than what the police found.
The way I do things with sources is that if somebody represents to me that he is seriously skeptical of a claim I have made, I will normally try to find a source. Similarly, I will not ask for a source (or cite) unless I am seriously skeptical of a claim which has been made. The reason I do things this way is because I do think in general people should provide sources (or cites) to back up their claims, but at the same time I have encountered problems in online debate with people who demand cites for claims which they don’t seriously dispute, presumably just to distract the discussion from the critical issues. (Also, keep in mind that for some claims, general knowledge, simple observation, and common sense are potentially reasonable or adequate sources. )
So the upshot is that I will try to find and provide a cite or source for any claim I make if you represent to me that you are seriously skeptical of the claim.
With that out of the way, I am seriously skeptical of your apparent claim that Sollecito was in the possession of a “mainstream and unremarkable manga book” and not multiple “comic books that mixed pornography and horror.” I have provided a cite for my position, now please provide a cite for yours.
I’m not sure I understand your point.
Do you agree that there was testimony that Kercher advised her friends that Knox had brought “strange men [plural]” over?
Do you agree that such testimony is evidence (although perhaps not proof) that Knox did in fact bring multiple men to the residence?
Based on your knowledge of human nature, do you agree that there is a pretty good chance that Kercher would have resented such behavior?
Can you give me a cite for this please? (I am seriously skeptical)
Ok, then here’s a couple questions for you:
If Knox and Sollecito were concerned about Kercher’s absence when the postal police arrived, why did Knox (apparently) advise them that Kercher normally kept her door locked?
Why did Sollecito (apparently) later admit to the authorities that he had not yet called the police with the postal police showed up?
(And yes, I will provide sources for this stuff if you represent to me that you are seriously skeptical.)
I’m not sure what your point is here. Do you dispute that she testified to finding glass on top of some of her belongings? Do you dispute that this is evidence (evidence, not conclusive proof) of a staged break-in?
Well do you agree that (1) the evidence seems to indicate that nothing was taken from Romenelli’s room; and (2) according to Sollecito’s story, he had seen Romanelli’s room but not Kercher’s room at that point?
Well was he asked about it or did he volunteer it? As far as I know, he first volunteered that there was no theft and then when asked if anything was taken, he said “no.” I could understand him giving an imprecise answer if asked about it, but why would he volunteer that nothing was taken?
Again, I am seriously skeptical of this claim. Please back it up with a quote, link, and cite.
Yes, I saw that, but I found it to be as either disingenuous or at best unhelpful. If it is irrelevant then it shouldn’t be mentioned. In context if you are using it for evidence then claiming you aren’t isn’t helpful and simply brings up something that will make people annoyed.
The same thing could be said about my mention of the Janet Chandler murder. The fact that one white girl helped to rape and murder another white girl (who was her roommate) back in the 70s in Michigan is not evidence of Knox’s guilt.
But as I mentioned in the blog post, I think both are helpful to show a remotely plausible scenario in which Knox is guilty.
If you disagree, then I think that under the “principle of charity,” you should simply ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 (which you apparently consider to be irrelevant, inflammatory fluff) and consider the core of my argument.
Yes, and the mention of the Chandler case also falls into the same category.
Does something increase plausibility or show a plausible scenario? Then it is evidence. If it doesn’t increase plausibility then it isn’t evidence. You can’t have it both ways.
Well, new information could suggest that you applied the wrong prior. If you’re trying to calculate the likelihood of a person’s guilt, and you find that the crime is more common than you originally thought, you’ll have to assign a higher probability of guilt, but you could reasonably say that it’s not evidence of guilt, because you’re revising P(A) rather than introducing a new (B).
This could be said to apply to the mention of the Chandler case, if you don’t have any information on how common such crimes are that would screen it off, but it clearly does not apply to the porn.
Well sure if you want to take a broad view of what constitutes “evidence,” then everything in my scenario constitutes “evidence.” (ETA: I would take a slightly narrower view, but perhaps it makes sense to agree on a definition.)
Similarly, by your standard the fact that had had sex with at least 7 men by the age of 20 is “evidence.” Why? First, because it raises the probability that she suffers from borderline personality disorder and therefore is lacking in empathy. Someone lacking in empathy is more likely to take part in a serious crime against another person. Second, because it raises the probability that she had male visitors which would have increased tension between her and Kercher, increasing the chances that she had a motive.
Anyway, I have a question for you: Why do you continue to ignore my core argument for Knox’s guilt?
Yes, this is all evidence according to the Bayesian definition. Calling E evidence (with respect to prior knowledge X) for a proposition H just means that p(H | E & X) > p(H | X). That is why quantifying evidence is so important. Just how much evidence is it? If all the evidence you offer raises the probability of H by only a few percent from a very low prior, then it should have practically no effect on how we treat Knox.
I basically agree, but sometimes it’s helpful to have a story or narrative or illustration before jumping in to look at the important evidence. That’s just how the human mind works, or at least most peoples’ minds. I realize this can be dangerous, for example it can lead to a “conjunction fallacy,” but I was careful to lable my narrative as speculation.
Just today I was browsing this web site and I came across an article called “Existential Risk” which was complete with (1) a picture of the Earth; (2) a likely apocryphal story about a man who singlehandedly prevented nuclear war; and (3) a picture of a Stanford torus. Is this cheap emotional manipulation? Perhaps, but again, I think this kind of story-telling can be useful to get the mind ready to focus on the meat of the argument.
One can ask what the likelihood is that we are reaching a critical juncture where the decisions and dilligence of just a few humans in the artificial intelligence community will have a massive impact on the future of humanity. Strictly speaking, the fact that some Russian dude did (or didn’t) singlehandedly prevent a nuclear war shouldn’t have much impact on our estimate of this probability. But I think it still might be worth mentioning to demonstrate the plausibility of the claim that one person can have a big impact.
In the same way, I think it’s worth mentioning the Janet Chandler case from the 70s. But again, if you object to this approach, just ignore paragraphs 2 through 7 of my blog post.
I agree that it’s worth mentioning Janet Chandler. It would be better to treat it seriously as evidence, rather than merely as a narrative framing device. To treat it seriously as evidence, you should use it to help establish a prior probability for Knox’s guilt (like Desrtopa did).
It seems to me that “narrative framing device” is basically a poor man’s method of estimating a prior probability. Here’s what I said in my blog post:
Of course in terms of assessing probabilities, it might be better if there were a lot of precedents, for example in a situation where a husband is suspected of killing his wife. But here there’s not a lot to go on.