I’d say there’s all sorts of non-physical evidence that would be sufficient to push our posterior probability of their guilt higher than that (insofar as any evidence in a materialistic universe can be said to be non-physical.) Email records between Knox, Sollecito and Guede discussing their plans to kill Kercher, for instance. Or if Knox or Sollecito had made statements about the circumstances of Kercher’s death which forensics corroborated which they could not plausibly have made without knowledge that would require them to have been there. Even just evidence of private meetings between Knox, Sollecito and Guede, combined with enough of the warning signs for a person likely to commit murder ought to boost the likelihood that they were complicit well over 1%.
It’s not that there aren’t possible forms of non physical evidence that would be adequate to establish a high likelihood for their guilt, it’s that such evidence is conspicuous in its absence.
I’d say there’s all sorts of non-physical evidence that would be sufficient to push our posterior probability of their guilt higher than that (insofar as any evidence in a materialistic universe can be said to be non-physical.) Email records between Knox, Sollecito and Guede discussing their plans to kill Kercher, for instance. Or if Knox or Sollecito had made statements about the circumstances of Kercher’s death which forensics corroborated which they could not plausibly have made without knowledge that would require them to have been there. Even just evidence of private meetings between Knox, Sollecito and Guede, combined with enough of the warning signs for a person likely to commit murder ought to boost the likelihood that they were complicit well over 1%
My intention was certainly to have recordings of Knox and Sollecito plotting to kill Meredith Kercher, email records of such an exchange, mobile phone calls placed to Rudy Guede and so on as physical evidence if any of them had existed. I class ones and zeroes on a hard drive or a magnetic imprint on a tape as physical evidence just as I count DNA as physical evidence.
Eyewitness evidence or police claims unsupported by physical evidence would be the kind of thing I intended to exclude by specifying physical evidence.
I’d say there’s all sorts of non-physical evidence that would be sufficient to push our posterior probability of their guilt higher than that (insofar as any evidence in a materialistic universe can be said to be non-physical.) Email records between Knox, Sollecito and Guede discussing their plans to kill Kercher, for instance. Or if Knox or Sollecito had made statements about the circumstances of Kercher’s death which forensics corroborated which they could not plausibly have made without knowledge that would require them to have been there. Even just evidence of private meetings between Knox, Sollecito and Guede, combined with enough of the warning signs for a person likely to commit murder ought to boost the likelihood that they were complicit well over 1%.
It’s not that there aren’t possible forms of non physical evidence that would be adequate to establish a high likelihood for their guilt, it’s that such evidence is conspicuous in its absence.
My intention was certainly to have recordings of Knox and Sollecito plotting to kill Meredith Kercher, email records of such an exchange, mobile phone calls placed to Rudy Guede and so on as physical evidence if any of them had existed. I class ones and zeroes on a hard drive or a magnetic imprint on a tape as physical evidence just as I count DNA as physical evidence.
Eyewitness evidence or police claims unsupported by physical evidence would be the kind of thing I intended to exclude by specifying physical evidence.