I think that dlthomas made an excellent point. Specifically, there are lots of goals each of us could be trying to achieve. You could be trying to cause us to have truer beliefs. You could be trying to understand your though processes and how they might err. Or some other goal.
I do agree it would be better (in terms of arguing for Knox’s guilt) if I laid out those important facts and I will do so if I have the time. But there is also an issue of economy. I’m not thrilled about spending the time to educate people about the case if they have not done their basic homework. Making my case by asking questions forces people to do the same simple research I have done, such as reading a few posts from the anti-Knox site which was linked in the very first thread.
If you cannot achieve your goals because LessWrong is incompatible with them, or the goals are incompatible with LessWrong, then it is perfectly rational for you to spend you time elsewhere. If so, I’m sorry that you were not able to achieve you goals. (As an aside, you have very high standards for an internet discussion if you expect us to do significant research beyond the posts on this site. I like high standards, but seldom live up to them).
Do you dispute that asking questions is sometimes an effective way of getting to the nub of an issue and/or focusing attention on a critical issue?
First, this isn’t a simple yes or no question because you have acquired a reputation for trying to be avoid the issues. That said, lots of things help focus a discussion on the critical issues. Questions are one of those things. But your questions did not seem to have this goal.
I assert that we have gotten to the nub of the issue of Knox and Sollecito’s guilt (i.e. the strength of the evidence).
That’s not true at all. “the strength of the evidence” is composed of dozens of sub-issues. For example, the question of the time of death based on the state of Kercher’s digestive system.
There are lots of basis of guilt articulated that have nothing to do with evidence. Like asserting that Knox’s nationality, age, gender, or status as a college student living abroad have any relevance to her guilt.
Your marshaling of facts about the time of death vs. Sollecito’s computer usage is excellent, in that it provides a real basis for discussion. But is it your true rejection? You pointed out it was a side issue, and even if the prosecution expert was entirely correct, it would only show the evidence was consistent with guilt and would not be [ETA: very strong] evidence of guilt.
it would only show the evidence was consistent with guilt and would not be evidence of guilt.
Most of your points seem good. However, this stood out. Consistency is from a Bayesian perspective evidence (albeit weak evidence) of guilt since it is more likely to occur in the guilty situation than in the non-guilty situation.
What stood out to me was that TimS pretty much missed the point of my argument on this issue. Which was that komponisto seems to be suffering from a serious case of confirmation bias.
The rational thing for komponisto to do would be to verify the points I made, and assuming they check out, thank me for helping him to become less wrong and then try to completely re-think the case. komponisto needs to realize that if he is dead wrong about an issue which he believes to be of central importance, it calls into question all of his thinking about the case, and in particular whether he is adequately scrutinizing the pro-Knox arguments and evidence and adequately considering the anti-Knox arguments (and evidence).
Also, TimS needs to ask himself why he missed the point of my argument. Was it just an oversight? Or is he subconsciously reluctant to go against the Captain of the Blue Team?
I thought you didn’t believe in referencing motivated cognition to determine truth.
Because if we were just weighing the amount of motivated cognition, the Italian prosecutor has engaged in substantially more than komponisto. The low-count DNA testing is nonsense, defense investigators showed a break-in was possible after prosecutors asserted otherwise, and the prosecution theory revolved around Satanism and orgies. At this point, nothing about stomach digestion and computer use timing could persuade me that guilt was more likely that innocence. In short, komponisto could be totally wrong about it and it won’t significantly affect my opinion of the ultimate issue.
I thought you didn’t believe in referencing motivated cognition to determine truth.
If you think so, then you misread my post.
Because if we were just weighing the amount of motivated cognition, the Italian prosecutor has engaged in substantially more than komponisto.
Let’s assume for the moment that’s true. In that case, if the Italian prosecutor were posting here, then just like komponisto, the rational thing for him to do would be to re-think the case.
ETA: Since you seem to keep missing the point of my post, I think it will be helpful to focus things with a few of those dreaded “questions.”
(1) Do you agree that a few posts back, komponisto posted an argument which seems to be dead wrong?
(2) Do you agree that this argument seems to be pretty important to komponisto?
(3) Do you agree that komponisto seems to have fallen victim to confirmation bias? i.e. he failed to scrutinize a pro-Knox argument most likely because he believes so strongly in her innocence?
(4) Do you agree that this calls into question all of komponisto’s thinking about the case?
(5) Do you agree that komponisto should thank me for helping to make him less wrong?
(6) And if komponisto instead writes me off as a “clack,” isn’t that just more of his bias at work?
(7) Finally, if the Italian prosecutor is more biased than komponisto, but in the opposite direction, do you agree it does not change the fact that komponisto himself is biased?
If you cannot achieve your goals because LessWrong is incompatible with them, or the goals are incompatible with LessWrong, then it is perfectly rational for you to spend you time elsewhere.
I agree, but again, so what? Isn’t what you are saying pretty much obvious? Why are you telling me this?
As an aside, you have very high standards for an internet discussion if you expect us to do significant research beyond the posts on this site
Well, the very first thread on the subject invited participants to read somewhat detailed summaries of the arguments (and evidence) for and against Knox’s guilt. Anyway, if you assert a very low probability of Knox’s guilt (which many people here do) (ETA: or a very high probability of Knox’s guilt), then either (1) you have done the research yourself and reached some conclusion which may or may not be justified; (2) you are relying on other posts here; or (3) you are fooling yourself. If number 2 is the case, then my point about komponisto should give you serious pause.
First, this isn’t a simple yes or no question because you have acquired a reputation for trying to be avoid the issues.
I don’t see what my reputation has to do with it. Either my assertion about questions being useful is true or it isn’t.
But your questions did not seem to have this goal.
Can you give me an example of a question I asked, and what you feel the actual goal of the question was?
There are lots of basis of guilt articulated that have nothing to do with evidence.
So what? It doesn’t change the fact that “strength of the evidence”—as a general proposition—is not the nub of the issue. To put it metaphorically, you are missing the trees for the forest.
You pointed out it was a side issue, and even if the prosecution expert was entirely correct, it would only show the evidence was consistent with guilt and would not be evidence of guilt.
Of course, but you need to understand the point of my argument—which is that komponisto seems to have royally screwed up. If you are basing your opinion about guilt or innocence on other peoples posts here—that should give you a lot of pause.
I think that dlthomas made an excellent point. Specifically, there are lots of goals each of us could be trying to achieve. You could be trying to cause us to have truer beliefs. You could be trying to understand your though processes and how they might err. Or some other goal.
If you cannot achieve your goals because LessWrong is incompatible with them, or the goals are incompatible with LessWrong, then it is perfectly rational for you to spend you time elsewhere. If so, I’m sorry that you were not able to achieve you goals. (As an aside, you have very high standards for an internet discussion if you expect us to do significant research beyond the posts on this site. I like high standards, but seldom live up to them).
First, this isn’t a simple yes or no question because you have acquired a reputation for trying to be avoid the issues. That said, lots of things help focus a discussion on the critical issues. Questions are one of those things. But your questions did not seem to have this goal.
There are lots of basis of guilt articulated that have nothing to do with evidence. Like asserting that Knox’s nationality, age, gender, or status as a college student living abroad have any relevance to her guilt.
Your marshaling of facts about the time of death vs. Sollecito’s computer usage is excellent, in that it provides a real basis for discussion. But is it your true rejection? You pointed out it was a side issue, and even if the prosecution expert was entirely correct, it would only show the evidence was consistent with guilt and would not be [ETA: very strong] evidence of guilt.
Most of your points seem good. However, this stood out. Consistency is from a Bayesian perspective evidence (albeit weak evidence) of guilt since it is more likely to occur in the guilty situation than in the non-guilty situation.
What stood out to me was that TimS pretty much missed the point of my argument on this issue. Which was that komponisto seems to be suffering from a serious case of confirmation bias.
The rational thing for komponisto to do would be to verify the points I made, and assuming they check out, thank me for helping him to become less wrong and then try to completely re-think the case. komponisto needs to realize that if he is dead wrong about an issue which he believes to be of central importance, it calls into question all of his thinking about the case, and in particular whether he is adequately scrutinizing the pro-Knox arguments and evidence and adequately considering the anti-Knox arguments (and evidence).
Also, TimS needs to ask himself why he missed the point of my argument. Was it just an oversight? Or is he subconsciously reluctant to go against the Captain of the Blue Team?
I thought you didn’t believe in referencing motivated cognition to determine truth.
Because if we were just weighing the amount of motivated cognition, the Italian prosecutor has engaged in substantially more than komponisto. The low-count DNA testing is nonsense, defense investigators showed a break-in was possible after prosecutors asserted otherwise, and the prosecution theory revolved around Satanism and orgies. At this point, nothing about stomach digestion and computer use timing could persuade me that guilt was more likely that innocence. In short, komponisto could be totally wrong about it and it won’t significantly affect my opinion of the ultimate issue.
If you think so, then you misread my post.
Let’s assume for the moment that’s true. In that case, if the Italian prosecutor were posting here, then just like komponisto, the rational thing for him to do would be to re-think the case.
ETA: Since you seem to keep missing the point of my post, I think it will be helpful to focus things with a few of those dreaded “questions.”
(1) Do you agree that a few posts back, komponisto posted an argument which seems to be dead wrong?
(2) Do you agree that this argument seems to be pretty important to komponisto?
(3) Do you agree that komponisto seems to have fallen victim to confirmation bias? i.e. he failed to scrutinize a pro-Knox argument most likely because he believes so strongly in her innocence?
(4) Do you agree that this calls into question all of komponisto’s thinking about the case?
(5) Do you agree that komponisto should thank me for helping to make him less wrong?
(6) And if komponisto instead writes me off as a “clack,” isn’t that just more of his bias at work?
(7) Finally, if the Italian prosecutor is more biased than komponisto, but in the opposite direction, do you agree it does not change the fact that komponisto himself is biased?
I agree, but again, so what? Isn’t what you are saying pretty much obvious? Why are you telling me this?
Well, the very first thread on the subject invited participants to read somewhat detailed summaries of the arguments (and evidence) for and against Knox’s guilt. Anyway, if you assert a very low probability of Knox’s guilt (which many people here do) (ETA: or a very high probability of Knox’s guilt), then either (1) you have done the research yourself and reached some conclusion which may or may not be justified; (2) you are relying on other posts here; or (3) you are fooling yourself. If number 2 is the case, then my point about komponisto should give you serious pause.
I don’t see what my reputation has to do with it. Either my assertion about questions being useful is true or it isn’t.
Can you give me an example of a question I asked, and what you feel the actual goal of the question was?
So what? It doesn’t change the fact that “strength of the evidence”—as a general proposition—is not the nub of the issue. To put it metaphorically, you are missing the trees for the forest.
Of course, but you need to understand the point of my argument—which is that komponisto seems to have royally screwed up. If you are basing your opinion about guilt or innocence on other peoples posts here—that should give you a lot of pause.