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Scaling prediction markets with meta-markets

Dentosal10 Oct 2024 21:17 UTC

1 point

0 comments2 min readLW link

Startup Success Rates Are So Low Because the Rewards Are So Large

AppliedDivinityStudies10 Oct 2024 20:22 UTC

42 points

6 comments2 min readLW link

Can AI Outpredict Humans? Results From Metaculus’s Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark

ChristianWilliams10 Oct 2024 18:58 UTC

50 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(www.metaculus.com)

Rationality Quotes—Fall 2024

Screwtape10 Oct 2024 18:37 UTC

75 points

22 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] why won’t this alignment plan work?

KvmanThinking10 Oct 2024 15:44 UTC

6 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

AI #85: AI Wins the Nobel Prize

Zvi10 Oct 2024 13:40 UTC

30 points

6 comments31 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Behavioral red-teaming is unlikely to produce clear, strong evidence that models aren’t scheming

Buck10 Oct 2024 13:36 UTC

100 points

4 comments13 min readLW link

Joshua Achiam Public Statement Analysis

Zvi10 Oct 2024 12:50 UTC

73 points

14 comments21 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Do you want to do a debate on youtube? I’m looking for polite, truth-seeking participants.

Nathan Young10 Oct 2024 9:32 UTC

12 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Rationalist Gnosticism

tailcalled10 Oct 2024 9:06 UTC

9 points

10 comments3 min readLW link

The deepest atheist: Sam Altman

Trey Edwin10 Oct 2024 3:27 UTC

14 points

2 comments4 min readLW link

Values Are Real Like Harry Potter

johnswentworth and David Lorell

9 Oct 2024 23:42 UTC

81 points

17 comments5 min readLW link

Momentum of Light in Glass

Ben9 Oct 2024 20:19 UTC

141 points

44 comments11 min readLW link

vgillioz’s Shortform

vgillioz9 Oct 2024 19:31 UTC

1 point

2 comments1 min readLW link

Hamiltonian Dynamics in AI: A Novel Approach to Optimizing Reasoning in Language Models

Javier Marin Valenzuela9 Oct 2024 19:14 UTC

3 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

Triangulating My Interpretation of Methods: Black Boxes by Marco J. Nathan

adamShimi9 Oct 2024 19:13 UTC

8 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

(formethods.substack.com)

Scaffolding for “Noticing Metacognition”

Raemon9 Oct 2024 17:54 UTC

78 points

4 comments17 min readLW link

Safe Predictive Agents with Joint Scoring Rules

Rubi J. Hudson9 Oct 2024 16:38 UTC

55 points

10 comments17 min readLW link

Demis Hassabis and Geoffrey Hinton Awarded Nobel Prizes

Anna Gajdova9 Oct 2024 12:56 UTC

47 points

14 comments1 min readLW link

Humans are (mostly) metarational

Yair Halberstadt9 Oct 2024 5:51 UTC

14 points

6 comments3 min readLW link

[Job Ad] MATS is hiring!

Jana, LauraVaughan, yams, Christian Smith and Ryan Kidd

9 Oct 2024 2:17 UTC

10 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Palisade is hiring: Exec Assistant, Content Lead, Ops Lead, and Policy Lead

Charlie Rogers-Smith9 Oct 2024 0:04 UTC

11 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

AGI & Consciousness—Joscha Bach

Rahul Chand8 Oct 2024 22:51 UTC

1 point

0 comments10 min readLW link

Video and transcript of presentation on Otherness and control in the age of AGI

Joe Carlsmith8 Oct 2024 22:30 UTC

35 points

1 comment27 min readLW link

From seeded complexity to consciousness—yes, it’s all the same.

eschatail8 Oct 2024 21:31 UTC

−23 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Limits of safe and aligned AI

Shivam8 Oct 2024 21:30 UTC

2 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What constitutes an infohazard?

K1r4d4rk.v18 Oct 2024 21:29 UTC

−4 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What makes one a “rationalist”?

mathyouf8 Oct 2024 20:25 UTC

7 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

[Intuitive self-models] 4. Trance

Steven Byrnes8 Oct 2024 13:30 UTC

63 points

7 comments24 min readLW link

Schelling game evaluations for AI control

Olli Järviniemi8 Oct 2024 12:01 UTC

65 points

5 comments11 min readLW link

Thinking About a Pedalboard

jefftk8 Oct 2024 11:50 UTC

9 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Overview of strong human intelligence amplification methods

TsviBT8 Oct 2024 8:37 UTC

264 points

141 comments10 min readLW link

Near-death experiences

Declan Molony8 Oct 2024 6:34 UTC

3 points

1 comment3 min readLW link

The unreasonable effectiveness of plasmid sequencing as a service

Abhishaike Mahajan8 Oct 2024 2:02 UTC

23 points

2 comments13 min readLW link

(www.owlposting.com)

There is a globe in your LLM

jacob_drori8 Oct 2024 0:43 UTC

86 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

MATS AI Safety Strategy Curriculum v2

DanielFilan and Ryan Kidd

7 Oct 2024 22:44 UTC

42 points

6 comments13 min readLW link

2025 Color Trends

sarahconstantin7 Oct 2024 21:20 UTC

40 points

7 comments6 min readLW link

(sarahconstantin.substack.com)

Clarifying Alignment Fundamentals Through the Lens of Ontology

eternal/ephemera7 Oct 2024 20:57 UTC

12 points

4 comments24 min readLW link

Ethics on Cosmic Scale, Outer Space Treaty, Directed Panspermia, Forwards-Contamination, Technology Assessment, Planetary Protection, and Fermi’s Paradox

MrFantastic7 Oct 2024 20:56 UTC

−12 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Domain-specific SAEs

jacob_drori7 Oct 2024 20:15 UTC

27 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Metaculus Is Open Source

ChristianWilliams7 Oct 2024 19:55 UTC

13 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.metaculus.com)

Research update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators

Eric Neyman7 Oct 2024 19:29 UTC

87 points

2 comments22 min readLW link

AI Model Registries: A Foundational Tool for AI Governance

Elliot Mckernon, Deric Cheng and Gwyn Glasser

7 Oct 2024 19:27 UTC

20 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

Evaluating the truth of statements in a world of ambiguous language.

Hastings7 Oct 2024 18:08 UTC

48 points

19 comments2 min readLW link

Advice for journalists

Nathan Young7 Oct 2024 16:46 UTC

100 points

53 comments9 min readLW link

(nathanpmyoung.substack.com)

Time Efficient Resistance Training

romeostevensit7 Oct 2024 15:15 UTC

42 points

8 comments3 min readLW link

A Narrow Path: a plan to deal with AI extinction risk

Andrea_Miotti, davekasten and Tolga

7 Oct 2024 13:02 UTC

73 points

11 comments2 min readLW link

(www.narrowpath.co)

Toy Models of Feature Absorption in SAEs

chanind, hrdkbhatnagar, TomasD and Joseph Bloom

7 Oct 2024 9:56 UTC

46 points

7 comments10 min readLW link

An argument that consequentialism is incomplete

cousin_it7 Oct 2024 9:45 UTC

32 points

27 comments1 min readLW link

An X-Ray is Worth 15 Features: Sparse Autoencoders for Interpretable Radiology Report Generation

hugofry, Ahmed Abdulaal, NMontanaBrown and a-ijishakin

7 Oct 2024 8:53 UTC

38 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)