Be Wary of Think­ing Like a FAI

An an­swer to a pos­si­ble ob­jec­tion to cash-trans­fer charities

Gaug­ing in­ter­est for a Tokyo area meetup group

Guard­ing Against the Post­mod­ernist Failure Mode

[QUESTION]: Driver­less car forecasts

Do­mains of forecasting

Ra­tion­al­ity Quotes July 2014

Sce­nario plan­ning, its util­ity, and its re­la­tion­ship with forecasting

[Ques­tion] Adop­tion and twin stud­ies confounders

Toy prob­lem: in­crease pro­duc­tion or use pro­duc­tion?

Brag­ging Thread, July 2014

Alpha Mail

Weather and cli­mate fore­cast­ing: how the challenges differ by time horizon

[QUESTION]: What are your views on cli­mate change, and how did you form them?

Com­mu­ni­cat­ing fore­cast uncertainty

Search Eng­ines and Oracles

Effec­tive Altru­ism Sum­mit is One Month Away

July 2014 Me­dia Thread

Open thread, July 28 - Au­gust 3, 2014

Open thread, 14-20 July 2014

Open thread, July 21-27, 2014

An even more mod­est search en­g­ine proposal

Fu­tures stud­ies: the field and the as­so­ci­ated community

Fore­cast­ing rare events

[QUESTION]: LessWrong web traf­fic data?

Use­ful Stan­dard­ized Tests?

Open thread, 7-14 July 2014

[ACTIVITY]: Ex­plo­ra­tory Visit to the Bay Area

Top-Down and Bot­tom-Up Log­i­cal Probabilities

Fac­ing the In­tel­li­gence Explosion

Time se­ries fore­cast­ing for global tem­per­a­ture: an out­side view of cli­mate forecasting

Con­ti­nu­ity ax­iom of vNM

LW Aus­tralia’s on­line hang­out re­sults, (short sto­ries about cog­ni­tive bi­ases)

Moder­a­tors, please wake up and start pro­tect­ing this com­mu­nity!

[QUESTION]: Look­ing for in­sights from ma­chine learn­ing that helped im­prove state-of-the-art hu­man thinking

Meetup : MIRIx Tel-Aviv

LINK: Melt­ing Arc­tic is re­leas­ing mil­lions of tons of methane

De­ci­sion The­ory: Value in Time

Meetup : Au­gust Ra­tion­al­ity Dojo: Govern­ing the Commons

Group Ra­tion­al­ity Diary, July 16-31

Meetup : War­saw Meetup proposal

Car­bon diox­ide, cli­mate sen­si­tivity, feed­backs, and the his­tor­i­cal record: a cur­sory ex­am­i­na­tion of the An­thro­pogenic Global Warm­ing (AGW) hypothesis

Wealth from Self-Repli­cat­ing Robots

Meetup : LessWrong Aus­tralia—On­line Hangout

Meetup : Syd­ney Meetup—July

Meetup : MIRIxAt­lanta: 19 July 2014

LINK: Blood from youth keeps you young

Meetup : Wash­ing­ton DC: Short Talks

Cli­mate sci­ence: how it mat­ters for un­der­stand­ing fore­cast­ing, ma­te­ri­als I’ve read or plan to read, sources of po­ten­tial bias

Meetup : Is­rael Less Wrong Meetup—So­cial Topics and LW outreach