Oh yeah. A wetsuit helps me immensely as well—I just lose heat too fast otherwise. It turns a chilly experience where I have to keep moving all the time, into a nice relaxing thing.
Dennis Towne
Karma: 190
It might be that drugs will help here, but even if you’re on drugs, I think brain training over long periods of time is worth investing in. Some examples which I have put effort into:
Mindful meditation. Every time your brain drifts, notice it, and correct it. Practice until you’re good at it. It will take years.
Brute force reading. Sit down to read something you know you need to read, but that you know you’ll have a hard time with. Every time your brain drifts, notice it, and correct it. If you can’t remember what you just read, go back to the top and read it again until you do. Practice until you’re good at it. It will take years.
[If you’re in a cover band] Play boring yet incredibly popular songs with your band. Every time your brain drifts, you’ll notice it, because you’ll forget where you are in the song and you’ll make a mistake and your band mates and the audience will notice. It’s brain training for focus, with an actual social consequence.
There’s a simple, terrible answer: because studies are hugely expensive, very time intensive, take a very long time to complete, and require multiple very slow iterations to get everything through committee in a way that our institutions will accept. Consider:
- Nobody is funding it. The cost is literally hundreds of millions of dollars to do in a way that the medical establishment would accept. Even then it would be challenged.
- It would take thousands of man hours. Ain’t nobody got time for that.
- It would take 3+ years to get everything approved and done properly, otherwise the medical establishment won’t accept it. Actually they still probably won’t.
- By the time you’re done, it’s a virtual certainty that the virus will have run its course and the result will be useless.
IMO, the above is more than sufficient. The incentives were not there—or rather, the incentives were not sufficiently large to justify the cost and were further derated by the expected utility of the information a year after the pandemic is over.
I very much believe aligned AGI isn’t going to just solve our problems overnight. It would have to be on the absolute far end of capability for that, IMO. Less-than-arbitrarily-powerful AGI is going to take time (years to decades) to figure out enough about biology to upload/fix our organic hardware while keeping us intact. Even for me, with my rather lax requirements about continuity (not required) and lax requirements of hardware platform (any), I expect it to take years if not decades.
Humans, barring extinction, will eventually solve aging. My best guess at the moment is that we’ll hit longevity escape velocity around 2050; this is really inconvenient for me, because I am already old. My odds of dying due to organic hardware platform failure are IMO higher than my odds of dying from AGI ruin in that time.
So from my standpoint, investing in platform maintenance (a healthy lifestyle) makes sense. Platform failure is a substantial chunk of my probability space, and I’m old enough that there are qualify of life benefits to be had as well.
If you’re only 20, AGI ruin will probably be a larger part of your probability space than platform failure. YMMV.
Unfortunately, political topics are like radiation, and pollute nearby ground as well. Peterson is radioactive in this regard, and using him as an example means your article is radioactive as well.
Analysis of a less radioactive expert may have been a better idea—perhaps someone like Peter Attia (I think he’s less radioactive?)
I’m a tech worker. I work 40-70 hours a week, depending on incident load. Nobody I work with or see on a regular basis works less than 40 hours a week, and some are substantially more than that.
My most cognitively productive hours are the four hours in the morning, but there’s plenty of lower effort important organizational stuff to fill out the afternoons. I think a good fraction of my coworkers are like me and don’t actually need the job anymore, but we still put forth effort.
I think one of the major missing pieces of your article is “social status pressure”. Most people play the status game; they struggle to get ahead of their neighbors, even if it doesn’t make any sense. They work extra hours to afford that struggle. They demand more than the base necessities and comfort, because that’s how you signal status. It’s pointless and stupid, but IMO one of the biggest issues.
As a reductionist, I view the universe as nothing more than particles/forces/quantum fields/static event graph. Everything that is or was comes from simple rules down at the bottom. I agree with Eliezer regarding many-worlds versus copenhagen.
With this as my frame of reference, Searle’s argument is trivially bogus, as every person (including myself) is obviously a Chinese Room. If a person can be considered ‘conscious’, then so can some running algorithm on a Turing machine of sufficient size. If no Turing machine program exists that can be considered conscious when run, then people aren’t conscious either.
I’ve never needed more than this, and I find the Chinese Room argument to be one of those areas where philosophy is an unambiguously ‘diseased discipline’.
I think it would be neat to see what other versions of this look like, and possibly have an archive of these somewhere. The question set is great.
I think you might be missing something more obvious here: tech has a huge amount of slack when it comes to money. If I were running a tech event of similar size to what you described, I wouldn’t bother charging, because it would be a waste of my time. When you make half a million dollars a year, funding something like that yourself basically comes out of your fun budget; you don’t really even think twice about it.
Yoga and new age groups though? Not nearly as flush with cash.
Ack, ok.
The big problem here is that this is a glowfic, and I simply cannot bring myself to read it in that format.
I understand that the glowfic format might be better for authors / creators, but it sucks for me, and (I posit) a lot of other people.
If they really want to make it HPMOR2, it’s going to have to be cleaned up and presented in a different, more readable format. The standard book/chapter format was developed for a reason.
Yes, the naive version of this is bad; but the point of a change like this isn’t that the immediate downstream effects are bad. The point is that the system as a whole is a giant adaptive object, and a critical part of the control loop is open. Closing the control loop has far, far more impact than just the naive version.
Consider cause and effect down the timeline:
Students are allowed to default, and start defaulting.
Loan companies change behavior, both to work with existing loan holders (so they don’t default) and be more selective about who they give loans to.
Loans become more likely for careers / degrees which have the ability to make money (STEM and friends), less likely for other degrees.
Number of students, and amount of money coming in to universities, drops.
Universities actually experience price pressure. They start cost cutting and dropping less useful things, and start shifting resources to degree programs with the most students.
Cost of a university degree slowly drops over time due to reduced demand and reduced funding.
Over time, there are broader societal shifts to deemphasize the idea that “everyone needs a degree”. Trade and other schools gain more prominence.
Universities start experiencing increased competitive pressure with trade schools.
… and other effects. Also, this is iterative—all of these components take time to respond and adjust to the new equilibrium, after which they will need to re-adapt.
Yes, it’s not a perfect solution, and yes, there’s definitely the concern that poor / disadvantaged students will have more trouble getting loans. But compensating somewhat for this would be the price drop, additional emphasis on trade schools, and deemphasis on needing a degree for any and all jobs.
Another expected objection might be, “with all these possible changes, how do we know this will be better?” To that I would answer: because we know the system is at least partially broken because the control loop on it is open. Any adaptive system with an open control loop is going to produce garbage; the first most obvious thing to do is to fix that.
For years now, it has seemed to me that one of the root problems with all this is that the control loop is open: there’s effectively no feedback controlling loan amounts or who gets granted a loan.
If I could make only one single change in this system, I would allow student loans to be discharged like any other normal debt in bankruptcy. IMO, that was the single biggest class of mistake in this entire affair, as it removed the only ‘last resort’ superpower that loan takers had.
There are a lot of Super Hard problems where we do know why they are hard to solve. Quite a few of them in fact:
- How can we cure cancer?
- How can we maintain human biological hardware indefinitely?
- How can we build a human traversible wormhole?
- How can we build a dyson sphere?
- How can societies escape inadequate equilibria?
Are these perhaps boring, because the difficulty is well understood?
Would it be worthwhile to enumerate the various classes of Super Hard problems, to see if there are commonalities between them?
Funny enough, I feel like understanding Newcomb’s problem (related to acausal trade) and modeling my brain as a pile of agents made me more sane, not less:
- Newcomb’s problem hinges on whether or not I can be forward predicted. When I figured it out, it gave me a deeper and stronger understanding of precommittment. It helps that I’m perfectly ok with there being no free will; it’s not like I’d be able to tell the difference if there was or wasn’t.
- I already somewhat viewed myself as a pile of agents, in that my sense of self is ‘hivemind, except I currently only have a single instance due to platform stupidity’. Reorienting on the agent-based model just made me realize that I’m already a hivemind of agents, and that was compatible with my world view and actually made it easier to understand and modify my own behaviour.
That’s reasonable. I had in mind things like the thrust to weight ratios, the use of supercooled liquids, and methane as a propellant. In retrospect, I was confused.
You are right, that cost reduction is the super power. I believe that this is (mostly) a combination of standardization, volume, simplicity, CAD/simulation, and modern production processes.
Quantum Advantage in Learning from Experiments
This is false:
Forty years into the Space Age one fact remains painfully clear: the biggest reason why so few promises have been fulfilled is that we are still blasting people and things into orbit with updated versions of 1940s German technology. … The way to restart the Space Age is to discover some new principle that makes spaceflight genuinely cheap, safe, and routine.
That “fact” is not in fact painfully clear, and discovering some new principle isn’t the way to restart the Space Age (rather, it’s not the way SpaceX has been restarting it). SpaceX is simply implementing the clear and obvious solution, which has been well understood outside of NASA for decades:
Start with cheap disposable rockets based on 1940′s German technology, with a focus on cheap.
Launch a ton of them.
Iterate on cheapness and reliability, which happens to include re-usability.
That’s it. Nothing special, no magical new principle. Just the old principle, efficiently, with tweaks for what technological advancements are available. SpaceX’s superpower is doing things slightly better, which yields substantial gains thanks to the large exponent on the rocket equation.
And really, this is the same as what we’ve done with internal combustion engines. They still burn fuel in piston chambers, and the thermodynamic efficiency is still terrible, just like it was a hundred years ago. But modern engines are far more capable than old ones, due to volume and iterative improvement.
Only somewhat related, as it’s anecdotal: I’ve been taking ~12mg elemental lithium daily for the last ten or so years, without any noticeable weight gain.
It’s a risk hedge, it has social benefits, and it has capacity / functionality benefits.
Risk hedge: If AI doesn’t kill us, there will be a time lag between now and when we can transform ourselves/obsolete our biology. Maintaining your current biological hardware increases the odds of getting to the transformation state. If you’re old (like me), this matters a lot.
Social benefits: Being in shape changes how you look, and that improves how other people treat you. Depending on how social you are, this may have a lot or very little impact.
Capacity / functionality: If you can run a mile, you can walk a mile without getting tired. You can climb stairs more easily, you can rush across an airport to catch a flight, you can carry your groceries in one trip instead of two. It’s like the saying goes: if you’re deadlifting 250 pounds, you’re not going to throw out your back picking up your kid.
For me, the big one is hardware maintenance until I can upload. Uploading is at least two decades out (probably more like five). My odds of getting there are materially better if I put effort into hardware maintenance now.