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Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

TagLast edit: Oct 3, 2020, 3:45 PM by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg)

The availability heuristic judges the probability of events by the ease with which examples come to mind. Sometimes this heuristic serves us well, but the map is not the territory; the frequency with which concepts occur in your thoughts need not reflect the frequency with which they occur in reality. Undue salience, selective reporting, even subtle features of how the human brain stores and recalls memories can distort our perceptions about the probability of events. Because it is easier to recall words by their first letter, people judge words that begin with the letter r to be more frequent than words with r as their third lettter, even though in fact, the latter is more frequent. A second example is that selective reporting by the media of dramatic tragedies makes them seem more frequent than more threatening, albeit mundane, risks.

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Availability

Eliezer YudkowskySep 6, 2007, 6:55 AM
188 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

Mak­ing His­tory Available

Eliezer YudkowskyAug 31, 2007, 7:52 PM
198 points
87 comments3 min readLW link

Availa­bil­ity bias- please help me find a study

VaniverApr 10, 2011, 9:23 PM
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

In­ter­nal Availability

royfOct 8, 2012, 6:19 AM
5 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

[SEQ RERUN] Availability

MinibearRexAug 19, 2011, 4:29 AM
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Crowd­sourc­ing the availa­bil­ity heuristic

kalla724Apr 25, 2012, 6:20 AM
43 points
40 comments7 min readLW link

Meetup : Wash­ing­ton, D.C.: Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

RobinZSep 29, 2015, 3:43 PM
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Availa­bil­ity Heuris­tic Con­sid­ered Ambiguous

Gram_StoneJun 10, 2016, 10:40 PM
15 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

Availa­bil­ity Heuris­tic and Get­ting Stranded: Stay With Your Car Or Seek Help?

JQuintonJun 18, 2012, 8:37 PM
3 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Can we have Epipha­nies and Eureka mo­ments more fre­quently?

CstineSublimeJan 8, 2025, 2:20 AM
2 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Mass Ex­po­sure Paradox

max-sixtyApr 16, 2025, 8:18 PM
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Ra­tional Home Buying

Scott AlexanderAug 27, 2011, 12:15 AM
168 points
138 comments7 min readLW link

Mo­ravec’s Para­dox Comes From The Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

james.lucassenOct 20, 2021, 6:23 AM
33 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(jlucassen.com)

Mere ex­po­sure effect: Bias in Eval­u­at­ing AGI X-Risks

Dec 27, 2022, 2:05 PM
0 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
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