I think one thing that is poorly-understood by many folks outside of DC is just how baseline the assumption is that China is a by-default faithless negotiating partner and that by-default China will want to pick a war with America in 2027 or later.
(I am reporting, not endorsing. For example, it is deeply unclear to me why we should take another country’s statements about the year they’re gonna do a war at surface level)
“want to pick a war with America” is really strange wording because China’s strategic goals are not “win a war against nuclear-armed America”, but things like “be able to control its claims in the South China Sea including invading Taiwan without American interference”. Likewise Russia doesn’t want to “pick a war with the EU” but rather annex Ukraine; if they were stupid enough to want the former they would have just bombed Paris. I don’t know whether national security people relate to the phrasing the same way but they do understand this.
I totally understand your point, agree that many folks would use your phrasing, and nonetheless think there is something uniquely descriptively true about the phrasing I chose and I stand by it.
Has China has made a statment about starting a war in 2027 or later? Who exactly is the belief that “by-default China will want to pick a war with America in 2027 or later” held by and how confident are you that they hold it?
Thanks for the link! The one mention of starting war was a quote from this 2006 white paper:
“by the middle of the twenty-first century, the strategic goal of building an informatized army and winning informatized wars will be basically achieved”
Is this what you’re referring to or did I miss something?
Sufficient AI superiority will mean overwhelming military superiority. If we remain ahead in AI it won’t matter what other countries do. I expect this effect will dominate the strategic landscape by 2027.
No, the belief is that China isn’t going to start a war before it has a modernized military, and they plan to have a modernized military by 2027. Therefore they won’t start a war before 2027.
China has also been drooling over Taiwan for the past 100 years. Thus, if you don’t think diplomatic or economic ties mean much to them, and they’ll contend with the US’s military might before 2027, and neither party will use nukes in such a conflict, then you expect a war after 2027.
I think one thing that is poorly-understood by many folks outside of DC is just how baseline the assumption is that China is a by-default faithless negotiating partner and that by-default China will want to pick a war with America in 2027 or later.
(I am reporting, not endorsing. For example, it is deeply unclear to me why we should take another country’s statements about the year they’re gonna do a war at surface level)
“want to pick a war with America” is really strange wording because China’s strategic goals are not “win a war against nuclear-armed America”, but things like “be able to control its claims in the South China Sea including invading Taiwan without American interference”. Likewise Russia doesn’t want to “pick a war with the EU” but rather annex Ukraine; if they were stupid enough to want the former they would have just bombed Paris. I don’t know whether national security people relate to the phrasing the same way but they do understand this.
I totally understand your point, agree that many folks would use your phrasing, and nonetheless think there is something uniquely descriptively true about the phrasing I chose and I stand by it.
Has China has made a statment about starting a war in 2027 or later? Who exactly is the belief that “by-default China will want to pick a war with America in 2027 or later” held by and how confident are you that they hold it?
It is supposedly their goal for when they will have modernized their military.
Thanks for the link! The one mention of starting war was a quote from this 2006 white paper:
Is this what you’re referring to or did I miss something?
The general belief in Washington is that Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by then. (See, e.g., https://www.reuters.com/world/china/logistics-war-how-washington-is-preparing-chinese-invasion-taiwan-2024-01-31/ )
Sufficient AI superiority will mean overwhelming military superiority. If we remain ahead in AI it won’t matter what other countries do. I expect this effect will dominate the strategic landscape by 2027.
Say more ?
No, the belief is that China isn’t going to start a war before it has a modernized military, and they plan to have a modernized military by 2027. Therefore they won’t start a war before 2027.
China has also been drooling over Taiwan for the past 100 years. Thus, if you don’t think diplomatic or economic ties mean much to them, and they’ll contend with the US’s military might before 2027, and neither party will use nukes in such a conflict, then you expect a war after 2027.
Ah, I misread your comment. Thanks for clarifying!
I don’t think they have stated they’ll to to war after 2027. 2027 is the year of their “military modernization” target.