Thanks for the link! The one mention of starting war was a quote from this 2006 white paper:
“by the middle of the twenty-first century, the strategic goal of building an informatized army and winning informatized wars will be basically achieved”
Is this what you’re referring to or did I miss something?
Sufficient AI superiority will mean overwhelming military superiority. If we remain ahead in AI it won’t matter what other countries do. I expect this effect will dominate the strategic landscape by 2027.
No, the belief is that China isn’t going to start a war before it has a modernized military, and they plan to have a modernized military by 2027. Therefore they won’t start a war before 2027.
China has also been drooling over Taiwan for the past 100 years. Thus, if you don’t think diplomatic or economic ties mean much to them, and they’ll contend with the US’s military might before 2027, and neither party will use nukes in such a conflict, then you expect a war after 2027.
It is supposedly their goal for when they will have modernized their military.
Thanks for the link! The one mention of starting war was a quote from this 2006 white paper:
Is this what you’re referring to or did I miss something?
The general belief in Washington is that Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by then. (See, e.g., https://www.reuters.com/world/china/logistics-war-how-washington-is-preparing-chinese-invasion-taiwan-2024-01-31/ )
Sufficient AI superiority will mean overwhelming military superiority. If we remain ahead in AI it won’t matter what other countries do. I expect this effect will dominate the strategic landscape by 2027.
Say more ?
No, the belief is that China isn’t going to start a war before it has a modernized military, and they plan to have a modernized military by 2027. Therefore they won’t start a war before 2027.
China has also been drooling over Taiwan for the past 100 years. Thus, if you don’t think diplomatic or economic ties mean much to them, and they’ll contend with the US’s military might before 2027, and neither party will use nukes in such a conflict, then you expect a war after 2027.
Ah, I misread your comment. Thanks for clarifying!