I feel pretty frustrated at how rarely people actually bet or make quantitative predictions about existential risk from AI.
Without commenting on how often people do or don’t bet, I think overall betting is great and I’d love to see more it!
I’m also excited how much of it I’ve seen since Manifold started gaining traction. So I’d like to give a shout out to LessWrong users who are active on Manifold, in particular on AI questions. Some I’ve seen are:
There are definitely more folks than this: feel free to mention more folks in the comments who you want to give kudos to (though please don’t dox anyone who’s name on either platforms is pseudonymous and doesn’t match the other).
Without commenting on how often people do or don’t bet, I think overall betting is great and I’d love to see more it!
I’m also excited how much of it I’ve seen since Manifold started gaining traction. So I’d like to give a shout out to LessWrong users who are active on Manifold, in particular on AI questions. Some I’ve seen are:
Rob Bensinger
Jonas Vollmer
Arthur Conmy
Jaime Sevilla Molina
Isaac King
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Noa Nabeshima
Mikhail Samin
Daniel Filan
Daniel Kokotajlo
Zvi
Eli Tyre
Ben Pace
Allison Duettmann
Matthew Barnett
Peter Barnett
Joe Brenton
Austin Chen
lc
Good job everyone for betting on your beliefs :)
There are definitely more folks than this: feel free to mention more folks in the comments who you want to give kudos to (though please don’t dox anyone who’s name on either platforms is pseudonymous and doesn’t match the other).
Others include:
Zack M. Davis
Ben Weinstein-Raun
1a3orn
Tetraspace
Jeremy Gillen
Thomas Kwa
Loppukilpailija
Niplav
Adele Dewey-Lopez
Nate Soares
Aella
Ozzie Gooen
Oliver Habryka
Here’s a couple of mine:
Yeah I mean the answer is, just make prediction markets and bet on them. I think we are getting a lot better at that.
(Also I’m a lesswrong user who makes a lot of prediction markets about AI)
In particular:
A real money version of Yud and Paul’s bet https://polymarket.com/event/will-an-ai-win-the-5-million-ai-math-olympiad-prize-before-august?tid=1702634083181
An attempt at clustering the best AI progress markets into a dashboard https://manifold.markets/dashboard/ai-progress