While language models plausibly are trained with comparable amounts of FLOP to humans today here are some differences:
Humans process much less data
Humans spend much more compute per datapoint
Human data includes them taking actions and the results of those actions, language model pretraining data much less so.
These might explain some of the strengths/weaknesses of language models
LMs know many more things than humans, but often in shallower ways.
LMs seem less sample-efficient than humans (less compute per datapoint and they haven’t been very optimized for sample-efficiency yet)
LMs are worse at taking actions over time than humans.
I think historically UMA oracle token holder profiteers have misresolved some markets without Polymarket overriding.
I would guess profiteers would focus on markets with more liquidity. I would guess that the base rate so far has been much less than 3%, but maybe there are lots of resolved markets with lower trading volume (‘Will Jesus Christ...’ has $400K in volume). It does seem like it would be unusually bad for Polymarket if this particular market was misresolved.
It seems not impossible to me for many markets to be misresolved by UMA in one big attack, but I don’t know how UMA and Polymarket work.