Yeah I mean the answer is, just make prediction markets and bet on them. I think we are getting a lot better at that.
(Also I’m a lesswrong user who makes a lot of prediction markets about AI)
In particular:
A real money version of Yud and Paul’s bet https://polymarket.com/event/will-an-ai-win-the-5-million-ai-math-olympiad-prize-before-august?tid=1702634083181
An attempt at clustering the best AI progress markets into a dashboard https://manifold.markets/dashboard/ai-progress
Yeah I mean the answer is, just make prediction markets and bet on them. I think we are getting a lot better at that.
(Also I’m a lesswrong user who makes a lot of prediction markets about AI)
In particular:
A real money version of Yud and Paul’s bet https://polymarket.com/event/will-an-ai-win-the-5-million-ai-math-olympiad-prize-before-august?tid=1702634083181
An attempt at clustering the best AI progress markets into a dashboard https://manifold.markets/dashboard/ai-progress