Overpopulation FAQs

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1. What Is Overpopulation?

Overpopulation is when there is an excessive number of occupants (people, animals, plants, etc.) in a particular area. Specifically, that is when the number of occupants exceeds the carrying capacity, i.e. the ability of that area to provide for them. Overpopulation is preceded by ecological overshoot.

The primary misconception of overpopulation is that it only depends on the number of organisms/​people (within the environment). 1000 people living in the fertile crescent isn’t overpopulation. 1000 people living on a 2-acre island would almost certainly be so. This misconception also assumes that if a certain number of individuals can be supported in the present, there’ll be no problems in the future, but this is not true.

Aside from the population size, all the other factors that are needed to determine overpopulation are the ones that determine the carrying capacity and overshoot of a defined environment. We need to determine the carrying capacity and resource consumption in order to determine overpopulation. And the only way to determine it is with a mathematical model.

Thus, overpopulation is determined by at least four parameters (or at least six for humans):

  • The number of creatures (usually of a single species) in an area

  • An area and its available resources

  • The average ecological footprint per creature (for humans, the average standard of living per capita)

  • A timeframe

  • The technology and substitution options available to those creatures (for humans)

  • The distribution of wealth and opportunities (for humans)

The most accurate models for calculating overpopulation would use more than 4-6 parameters, especially if additional parameters are created for modeling accessible resources and resource consumption. Creating an accurate overpopulation model for today’s world is a difficult task because the population, supply of resources, and consumption of resources are each changing faster than ever before in history. For comparison, it could potentially be as difficult as trying to model climate change. For more information, we discuss how to create a dynamic and predictive population model here.

We have a proposal for preventing overpopulation that is likely to succeed with the fewest number of negative consequences. The only way the proposal could fail is if we don’t gain the collective political will to implement it.