By Luc Montagnier and Jed Rubenfeld
Jan. 9, 2022 5:20 pm ET
----WSJ
I did not believe the user of this website was really about reason, as this post was devoted greatly.
Should be smaller R0. However, I meant not to fix it. It took 22 months that CDC start considering to recommend N95 and some areas (Salt Lake city) starts giving free N95.
People who did not understand the richness,fastness, unpredictable, of COVID’s mution could not appreciate my conclusoin two years ago.
For knowing this result, u need not to have an “accurate” model with many dependence assumptions.
Clearly the Exponential function dominate the linear function (benefit of vaccines/re-infect immune) in UK.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1473752247376961543
Another reason is, all extra dependent hypothesis will be explored equally at an earlier stage of a research topic. In brief, most trash papers compete each other at the earlier stage and only after some time, a dominate theory/model will be established. The competition process actually is very similar as the process of virus evolution. At the earlier stage, there is no reason to assume a dominate new model yet. Thus, no heterogenous should be assumed.
There is no reason to assume heterogeneous, as the COVID is so new and the information/knowledge about its mutation direction is very shallow till now.
With the speed of double 1-3 days, I did not believe other details/aspects played any significant role. Only the transmission control/observe has relationship with the true reality.
Omicron doubles in 1.5 to 3 days in areas. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-cases-doubling-15-3-days-areas-with-local-spread-who-2021-12-18/
Mathematically, the consequence caused by the transmission >>>>> death rate.
Let’s assume there were many COVID mutated variants. What is the best model for the average of the spreading path of all those mutations? It is the SIR model, as it has less dependency. More “accurate” models have more assumptions, hypothesis and depended conditions, which are not reliable. In brief, any other models looks more or less like the result of the SIR model. The difference cancels out.
It is easy to make simple things complicate. It is extremely difficult to simplify the complicate issues. It is ever more difficult to understand the conclusion that looks simple.
Two years ago, I CONCLUED that the COVID can only be controlled by N95 or even better physical protection equipment. The posts I provided looks like a joke (someone do said it is a joke).
Today, do those posts look more reasonable? The key point is: the mutation of COVID is very fast and uncontrollable (at this stage). This is an obvious, but not easy to understand fact.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1469723185084084225?s=20
Please check the calculation part. I wish the health system would not stress out by the omicron.
“the chance of contracting disease at all compared with those who are not vaccinated (~40-70% for Delta, reduced to maybe ~10-30% for Omicron);”
Do you have a link to the peer review papers about the above item?
“6 months ago I wrote about how 30-year-olds should basically go back to normal and no longer take many COVID precautions.”
Will the hospital system stress out again in many states because people did not control the transmission? We will see soon. I just did not understand that why so many people did not understand the power exponential functions.
Currently, the omicron doubles 3-4 days (Germany and British data). Let’s assume the vaccines reduce the severity into the swan flu level. Now, what will the swan flu that doubles in each 4 days will lead? Simple math will tell us, it is UNACCEPTABLE.
If 30s live as normal, the transmission will not be controlled and the health system will stress out even further.
I am surprised that most people did not read the virus spreading dynamics even after two years of COVID. For any large scale plague, the transmission will cause the most life loss. Assuming the serenity of COVID is reduced to the same level as a flu and ignore the long COVID.
Now, Think about a ten times transmissible swan flu. Individual tends to think it is acceptable. However, it could cause millions of life loss in US alone.
It is not possible that 100% will get it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology
Please do some simple calculation by using the SIR model. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology
Simple calculation suggests the transmission rate contribute much more to the life of loss than the mortality rate. Any measures improve the transmission will cancel the vaccines’ linear contribution to the death rate. The first priority of the vaccine should be prevent transmission, not mortality rate.
https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Masks-for-All-2022-Final-Text.pdf