Lurker, Rationalist.
RatsWrongAboutUAP
Karma: 458
Glad we could make this bet!
Glad we could make this bet!
That’s a reasonable concern. My concern is that without some principal to avoid it, that would just mean that everyone waits out the full 5 years even if its clear I’m the winner.
I wouldn’t mind giving a window of a month for things to settle before there’s a duty to settle. I would still demand that if anyones credence ever goes >50% that they still have to register that publicly (or at least to me)
Correct, accepted at payment time. If you need more time to think it over, no problem.
Interesting edge case. I would ask that if you at any point became >50% within the time horizon, that you would proactively reach out in short order.
Yes! If you have any concerns over terms/resolution please let me know. Otherwise reach out with means to receive payment
I like the odds and appreciate the offer, but these terms do not interest me.
Good enough for me
This is more than acceptable for me. Please reach out for a way for me to pay you.
Mere government hoax/psyop with no accompanying reality to non-prosaic uap would NOT resolve in my favor, no issue from me on that.
In a world where a sizeable fraction of LW becomes convinced I might win the bet, I would expect that I then wouldn’t have to wait very long before it then became conclusive, so I wouldn’t mind just waiting that out. If in that case, we then hit time horizon constraints before it was definitive to you, then depending on the specifics I definitely would not rule out appealing to the community (or specific ‘trusted’ individuals like Scott Alexander or Eliezer). I find this scenario unlikely to come to pass. I would of course in all cases commit to operating with you in good faith.
If you wish to extend that offer, I indeed will accept 50:1 (max bet size?). If you have any other concerns please let me know.
Wish to bet on it?
Double the odds and I will accept immediately. Otherwise I might accept in the next few days depending on if I get more offers or not. I have reached out to others now and I expect when its confirmed that I really am giving out money, that more offers will come in.
Correct, I’m not trying to collect on something like that. I would in the case of a simulation only if it was also the case that the ufos were something unique and specific (ie, actual glitches, or something expressly put in by the programmers) as opposed to being trivially true in the way that you mention.
Correct, you do not have to commit the money to any third party, you merely have to affirm that you will pay out in the event that I win.
At the moment 30:1 is less than I would prefer, if in the next few days I do not get enough new offers then I might take you up on this. 50:1 is currently the lowest I have accepted.
Rare counterexample
I’m afraid you are going to lose this bet. So long as people come can up with a bitcoin/eth address or a paypal account, there will be no issues.
If/when it comes out that ufos are legitimately weird, I would be very surprised to see anything other than utter bewilderment from most of LW, I don’t expect clear resolution in my favor to be an issue.
LW’s with a reputation are a far cry from random internet strangers. I made the bet terms as such to be as frictionless and minimum downside for my counterparties as possible to try and eliminate as many concerns as possible, I do want to make bets afterall.
If I get stiffed I’d be pretty surprised, but I take that risk knowingly.
Let us move forward!
I commit to operating in good faith with you, and I obviously take as a given that you will do the same. If you have any other concerns please let me know. Otherwise please provide (either publicly or privately) a means for me to pay you. We can then both confirm here that we have begun our bet.
This is the best offer so far! I would love to enter into this bet with you.
I would be perfectly happy with either of those methods of resolution in the event there’s a disagreement. In that event I would be happy for you to more or less entirely dictate the specifics of that process. I commit to operating in good faith with you, and I obviously take as a given that you will do the same.
If you have any other concerns please let me know. Otherwise please provide (either publicly or privately) a means for me to pay you. We can then both confirm here that we have begun our bet.
I said in a post to lsusr yesterday (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oY9HNicqGGihymnzk/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-craft-of-non?commentId=od73EXuSL6uKLFfeD) that I would update the post today to address his concerns, but honestly im feeling very lazy and mostly disagree that its unclear what I’m trying to do.
I will be picking some people and moving forward with the bets today. I will ensure with my counterparties that any individual concerns they have are addressed.
I am still open to betting with more people (and would love to do so!).
Anyone who is confident no ufos are truly anomalous, please feel free to extend me odds for a bet here https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up
I have already paid out to two betters so far, and would like some more