LW’s with a reputation are a far cry from random internet strangers. I made the bet terms as such to be as frictionless and minimum downside for my counterparties as possible to try and eliminate as many concerns as possible, I do want to make bets afterall.
If I get stiffed I’d be pretty surprised, but I take that risk knowingly.
I think if your P(weird) is 3%, it might be hard for you to in-expectation make money even from someone whose P(weird) is 0.00001%. You should definitely worry about being stiffed to some extent, and both sides should expect small probabilities of other sorts of costly drama. This limits what bets people should actually agree on.
LW’s with a reputation are a far cry from random internet strangers. I made the bet terms as such to be as frictionless and minimum downside for my counterparties as possible to try and eliminate as many concerns as possible, I do want to make bets afterall.
If I get stiffed I’d be pretty surprised, but I take that risk knowingly.
I think if your P(weird) is 3%, it might be hard for you to in-expectation make money even from someone whose P(weird) is 0.00001%. You should definitely worry about being stiffed to some extent, and both sides should expect small probabilities of other sorts of costly drama. This limits what bets people should actually agree on.