I did not see it in your post but there is a relevant question on Metaculus : https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20541/ai-resolving-questions-on-metaculus/%7D/
I’m at 66% for 2030, 96% for 2040
exmateriae
Karma: 116
To avoid shorts/reels etc I use ScreenZen. I’m allowed to use all of YouTube and Instagram with no issues except for the short videos where I receive a special message that I can bypass but then my 100 days streak would be broken so… Yes I used my achievements addiction to force myself out of Reels/shorts.
Depending on how far gone you are it may not be enough but I found that this was great because it gave more control, for instance you can simply delete all shorts from the youtube interface iirc.
To add to the other answers, outside of the induced consequences post-singularity, what happens pre-singularity still matters if the singularity does not happen extremely soon.
we don’t know when (or IF!) the singularity will happen
does nothing matter until then? What if the singularity happens in a century? Should you abandon all your beliefs because one day when you’ll be (likely) dead, people will have solved all problems?
I thought you said he was very close to the maximum he could do? English is a second language so maybe I misunderstood something. Also, only my first paragraph is really related to the quote, the rest is more of a free flow of what I think
while, at the same time, the reach of his actions and opinions have also maximized
I disagree. Companies will become complacent and stagnant very fast if leadership is not going hard against it. I’m not sure I’d like to work for him but my impression is that he really pushes his teams to go for more faster and results have shown up. I’m not sure “dumb”(at first look) ideas like Mechazilla would exist without him being willing to try cool things.
I’m on the fence for X, there have been good changes and the site feels a bit less like an echo chamber but there have also been negatives and I’m concerned by his recent implications in politics because I don’t think he can bring much value, especially compared to his companies.
Neuralink could also be very important.
Overall, he would benefit from talking less but you can’t have everything. I still think very much net positive.
I am far from being a model user as I am not a very organized person but having everything in the same place has allowed me to actually find things much more easily because the search is quite good. Not perfect but much better than what Google offers in Docs or Keep for instance. The app itself is very versatile but there are many plugins that will allow you to tailor your experience in the exact way you need it.
I try to update or create a new note as soon as possible because I forget pretty fast. I have a few notes made exactly for the purpose of storing temporary ideas that will need to be more developped or moved somewhere else later.
There are several tools to revisit notes. The link is powerful because on every note you can see all links from but also to this note and the local graph shows you everything that is a close link (1, 2, 3 or more links away).
I know tags are used by many people for this but I have never really been able to use them much. Then there is the random note and the general graph that shows you all the notes. On it you can show notes with a color depending on some condition which helps with subjects but it also helps to find “lost” notes with no links that may have been forgotten.
The best introduction I have found is from Nick Milo, very simple but it gives right away an idea of the potential of the app: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL3NaIVgSlAVLHty1-NuvPa9V0b0UwbzBd
The important ones are 1, 2, 3, 4 is really optional, 5 and 6 are useful and short. So you only really need 30 minutes at 1x speed.
I use Obsidian. It’s a note taking/note making software using almost only Markdown syntax. It is very malleable to your use but mostly relies on a linking system that kinda makes it a wiki for your knowledge.
The title of your post has lived rent-free in my head for three years but I think that’s when I discovered Metaculus so thank you I guess.
Love the drawings! I feel like more drawings would make this community easier to understand to outsiders.
I’m guilty of n°3 when people defend some hype products while saying untrue things about how they are better than the competition. Obvious example about Apple’s products “doing something no other phone does” when the functionality in question was introduced 7 years ago on Android. Not exactly the same since they do not frame it as preference but try to rationalize it but I’ll remember this next time to be nicer.
I remember reading about SAD treatment by lumens in Inadequate Equilibria, though I did not finish the book.
Thanks for making this clearer, I had misunderstood this indeed. I’m still very much not a fan of the idea of “switching votes”, but I guess that’s not much different from some alliances and other shenanigans that happen during elections.
I’m not american so I have no skin in the game.
Isn’t one of the democrat’s main arguments that Trump is a danger to democracy and won’t respect basic duties ? Supporting cheating seems a bit hypocritical.
Edit : This is not actually cheating, I had misunderstood it. Still, not much of a fan of such ideas.
With metaculus I do write my confidence in pretty much every forecast that I make. It has made this better. But even then, when coming back to long term forecasts, I sometimes find myself stunned by my specific %, likely forgetting some of the informations that brought me to that forecast in the first place.
I could not read everything yet, sorry for that but I wanted to contribute on one of your points. I’m not certain AI will be bad for languages, it could resurrect some of them easily if they have been recorded in some way and could help people maintain their skills in less used languages. It could teach people those languages.
I’m not convinced Trump will succeed and I’m worried by what he would be ok with to reach peace but it is true that he made happen things that seemed unlikely (no war, leaving Afghanistan, korea meeting), nevermind if this meant negotiating with terrible people.
So if you don’t care about Ukraine and want the war to stop, I’m also under the impression that Trump is your best shot.
I was scared that by clicking on the red button I was going to launch nukes… so I did not hit it. Now I know that next year I will click.
Well, maybe.
Edit : I should have read more carefully.
We have this forecast on Metaculus that is exactly about such an AI, it would be interesting to try to resolve it : https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/
I was quite pessimistic (for humans) so this would confirm it but I’ll wait a bit for more infos and tests before thinking it’s over.
It’s a pity that you stopped doing these
Thanks for doing these again