I’m not american so I have no skin in the game.
Isn’t one of the democrat’s main arguments that Trump is a danger to democracy and won’t respect basic duties ? Supporting cheating seems a bit hypocritical.
Edit : This is not actually cheating, I had misunderstood it. Still, not much of a fan of such ideas.
With metaculus I do write my confidence in pretty much every forecast that I make. It has made this better. But even then, when coming back to long term forecasts, I sometimes find myself stunned by my specific %, likely forgetting some of the informations that brought me to that forecast in the first place.
I could not read everything yet, sorry for that but I wanted to contribute on one of your points. I’m not certain AI will be bad for languages, it could resurrect some of them easily if they have been recorded in some way and could help people maintain their skills in less used languages. It could teach people those languages.
I’m not convinced Trump will succeed and I’m worried by what he would be ok with to reach peace but it is true that he made happen things that seemed unlikely (no war, leaving Afghanistan, korea meeting), nevermind if this meant negotiating with terrible people.
So if you don’t care about Ukraine and want the war to stop, I’m also under the impression that Trump is your best shot.
I was scared that by clicking on the red button I was going to launch nukes… so I did not hit it. Now I know that next year I will click.
Well, maybe.
Edit : I should have read more carefully.
We have this forecast on Metaculus that is exactly about such an AI, it would be interesting to try to resolve it : https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/
I was quite pessimistic (for humans) so this would confirm it but I’ll wait a bit for more infos and tests before thinking it’s over.
It’s a pity that you stopped doing these
Sure, if you want to go hands free or mobile you might talk to your phone or computer, but typing is just better than speaking, and a mouse is more precise than a gesture, and AI won’t change that.
This is true for people here but I’m not sure it’s necessarily true for the world at large considering the average typing speed. Most people would find it much easier to speak to their computer than type to it. (and they would be able to exchange much faster)
Thanks for the detailed and clear answer! I mostly agree with you.
Each regulation has a cost. Of course privacy and sensitive data protection is a nice to have, but is it worth the marginal cost it imposes? Or another way to see it: When you have a large number of costly regulations, you raise the cost to the point that the EU tech industry underperforms:
There is a clear difference in mindset like you said. Europe is less inclined towards entrepreneurship and more towards a powerful state that regulates the economy. I won’t lie, I am often disappointed when looking at it on the entrepreneur side.
But overall, and I think that’s the whole point : most europeans are fine with it because of the tons of protections it brings to citizens compared to… well pretty much everywhere else. (again this is looking at a very broad picture, there are huge differences in Europe between countries, people, etc...)
Here, GDPR is often looked at through the eyes of americans and obviously it’s completely against the US way : that was actually the point, exactly like the tax on digital services and other “attacks” against tech giants. Americans can say they hate the GDPR, that’s fine with me but always saying “this is so stupid” is imho misunderstanding its goal.
GDPR is clearly not perfect but this incessant bashing is tiring. Not everything has to be about being more productive. Privacy and sensitive data protection matters. I find it kind of sad to have to say those things when it’s been a year of constant warnings about the future dangers of AIs.
It’s easier to not care about it when half the companies leeching data are US based but from what I read about the TikTok ban, as soon as it’s not an american company, then it’s a big problem. The EU cannot rely on the US (and US companies) to care about them or be very reliable (and have proven that time and time again).
I feel you, I’m a lawyer in France in civil law and people will deform so many things that you will learn about so late in the process that it gets very difficult (if possible at all) to backtrack.
I’m coming very late to this but it is also possible that the people forecasting on each of the questions are noticeably different and they have different ideas about AI. Maybe some just don’t know about the other questions. It won’t explain everything but it could be a factor.
Also, it is difficult to keep all your forecasts up to date. You can forget.
I feel like theses posts get less likes than before (and I often forget to like them) but they really are great to keep up with what’s happening. Thanks for doing it!
Thanks for sharing this view.
I can relate to you on some aspects. I am not feeling depressed at all but I’m a bit scared that I was born too early to really benefit from AGI.
This perspective ignores future generations, which is admittedly a weakness. However, prioritizing future generations above oneself and one’s loved ones is psychologically hard.
Do you have children? I don’t but I am under the impression that people who do say that this changes a bit once you have children. (because of soon to be born grandchildren I guess?)
95% was most likely an overexaggeration but that was to underline the main idea that overall if all of your recipes need several ingredients that will be used in none of the other recipes, it’s much harder to make a restaurant work.
When dining in, I suppose yes, because we wouldn’t think of the other dishes as Italian then—I don’t make an ‘Italian steak’ it’s just a steak, etc.
Indeed, I may be biased but many “italian things” do feel like normal things were “italian” has been added to it because they have a great cooking culture. Especially among the appetizers, where the spanish do the same, incorporating every small dish under the tapas umbrella
I live in the south so I won’t be able to but my main advices would be to avoid eating near touristic places where very average stuff will be sold at a premium (Eiffel Tower, arc de triomphe for instance) and to go for places that look nice but not too fancy, especially if you want something closer to a “comfort food” feeling. Fancy places can have extremely good food but like Zvi said it, the ambiance can be mediocre and/or impersonal. Maybe ask parisians about the places where they would bring their friends for a good dinner? (and that you would like to try french specialties in some of them :) )
Exactly, the quality rules in the EU sometimes feel too strict but a few weeks in the US and I saw the difference. The compounding effect of food on your health is huge.
Salads and pasta salads on the “healthy” side. There are a lot of vegetables in the burgers, almost no option with only meat in it.
But it’s not so much that than the differences in portion sizes and calories. There are legal limits to added sugar, salt or fat and to how much calories you can put in a meal. It’s way lower than what you can find in the US.
Unlimited sodas are forbidden in France(Europe maybe ?) + they have way less sugar than in the US (+they are even cut a bit more in fast foods) There must be a few other stuff but out of my head they are the main ones.
Despite that we still have obesity (~23% which is kind of average today but still bad)
Thanks for making this clearer, I had misunderstood this indeed. I’m still very much not a fan of the idea of “switching votes”, but I guess that’s not much different from some alliances and other shenanigans that happen during elections.