With metaculus I do write my confidence in pretty much every forecast that I make. It has made this better. But even then, when coming back to long term forecasts, I sometimes find myself stunned by my specific %, likely forgetting some of the informations that brought me to that forecast in the first place.
With metaculus I do write my confidence in pretty much every forecast that I make. It has made this better. But even then, when coming back to long term forecasts, I sometimes find myself stunned by my specific %, likely forgetting some of the informations that brought me to that forecast in the first place.