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elifland

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https://​​www.elilifland.com/​​. You can give me anonymous feedback here. I often change my mind and don’t necessarily endorse past writings.

How 2025 AI Fore­casts Fared So Far

Adam B, romeo and elifland
May 22, 2025, 9:42 AM
11 points
2 comments8 min readLW link
(theaidigest.org)

Slow cor­po­ra­tions as an in­tu­ition pump for AI R&D automation

ryan_greenblatt and elifland
May 9, 2025, 2:49 PM
91 points
23 comments9 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing time to au­to­mated su­per­hu­man coders [AI 2027 Timelines Fore­cast]

elifland and Nikola Jurkovic
Apr 10, 2025, 11:10 PM
35 points
0 comments18 min readLW link
(ai-2027.com)

AI 2027: What Su­per­in­tel­li­gence Looks Like

Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V and romeo
Apr 3, 2025, 4:23 PM
646 points
218 comments41 min readLW link
(ai-2027.com)

Pre­dict 2025 AI ca­pa­bil­ities (by Sun­day)

Jonas V, elifland and Sage Future
Jan 15, 2025, 12:16 AM
54 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Sce­nario Fore­cast­ing Work­shop: Ma­te­ri­als and Learnings

elifland and charlie_griffin
Mar 8, 2024, 2:30 AM
50 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing fu­ture gains due to post-train­ing enhancements

elifland, Joel Becker and simeon_c
Mar 8, 2024, 2:11 AM
31 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Dis­cussing how to al­ign Trans­for­ma­tive AI if it’s de­vel­oped very soon

eliflandNov 28, 2022, 4:17 PM
37 points
2 comments28 min readLW link

Eli’s re­view of “Is power-seek­ing AI an ex­is­ten­tial risk?”

eliflandSep 30, 2022, 12:21 PM
67 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

Sage Future and elifland
Sep 20, 2022, 10:25 PM
28 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Prize idea: Trans­mit MIRI and Eliezer’s worldviews

eliflandSep 19, 2022, 9:21 PM
47 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

eliflandSep 14, 2022, 11:56 PM
34 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

eliflandSep 9, 2022, 4:01 AM
44 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

(My un­der­stand­ing of) What Every­one in Tech­ni­cal Align­ment is Do­ing and Why

Thomas Larsen and elifland
Aug 29, 2022, 1:23 AM
413 points
90 comments37 min readLW link1 review

Dis­cus­sion on uti­liz­ing AI for alignment

eliflandAug 23, 2022, 2:36 AM
16 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Per­sonal fore­cast­ing ret­ro­spec­tive: 2020-2022

eliflandJul 21, 2022, 12:07 AM
38 points
4 comments8 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize for fore­cast write­ups on cu­rated Me­tac­u­lus questions

elifland, sam_atis and yagudin
Feb 4, 2022, 8:06 PM
41 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

elifland’s Shortform

eliflandJan 11, 2022, 4:35 PM
2 points
12 commentsLW link

My Hyper­mind Aris­ing In­tel­li­gence Fore­casts and Reflections

eliflandSep 26, 2021, 8:47 PM
23 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)