CraigMichael

Karma: 640

CraigMichael Oct 12, 2022, 6:29 PM
1 point
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in reply to: arunto’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
These are interesting thoughts.

I know this is CNN, but the source (Robert Baer) seems solid. https://youtu.be/7ZgBSYZb-gk

He says putin used information from Russian spy in the CIA to blackmail Yeltsin.

If we discovered any of them currently active, I wonder if we could deliberately feed them bits of misinformation to steer Putin one way or another?

Or maybe if the undiscovered spies could become something like ironic double agents on their own if the spies are against escalation? On their own imitative they steer things towards de-escalation? Or maybe defect at the last moment to try and stop escalation?

CraigMichael Oct 11, 2022, 11:32 AM
6 points
2
in reply to: Sausage Vector Machine’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Have you “mentally wargamed” the CIA/MI6 option? Who would replace him? Would they be better or worse? How would Russian citizens respond? Is there anything like an automated event that is suppressed daily by Putin while he is alive but that would be triggered if he dies?

Since you seem to have thought a lot of this through:

Do you have thoughts on the possibility of pre-existing weapons caches in the US or Europe that could be activated remotely by Russia? (Nuclear, chemical, biological, etc)?

Similarly, it seems that every few years we discover Russians spies in the US, so the probability is high there’s some in the US active now. In the event of a war, would they act like a sleeper cell? Would kinds of things might they do?

CraigMichael Oct 11, 2022, 10:21 AM
1 point
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on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Marginally Compelling had a great podcast episode with Josh Centers back in March of this year on surviving a nuclear attack. https://polimath.substack.com/p/get-ready-for-nuclear-war-with-josh#details

I haven’t seen it mentioned, so I’m mentioning it.

CraigMichael Oct 11, 2022, 10:19 AM
2 points
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in reply to: Sausage Vector Machine’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Even with massive air strikes? Couldn’t they just carpet bomb any Ukrainian military position?

CraigMichael Oct 11, 2022, 12:34 AM
1 point
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in reply to: Teerth Aloke’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
I enjoyed reading this silver-lining comment. :)

CraigMichael Oct 11, 2022, 12:23 AM
1 point
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in reply to: Davit Mrelashvili’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
It feels less irreversible today.

CraigMichael Oct 11, 2022, 12:15 AM
1 point
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in reply to: arunto’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Thanks. Was feeling crazy for a moment.

CraigMichael Oct 10, 2022, 8:21 AM
1 point
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in reply to: jmh’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Had this same thought. Seems worthy of discussion.

Interesting blog post that some of Russia’s most recent nuclear tech may not work well and may be motivated more to bargain with than to use.

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208662/hypersonic-glide-vehicles-what-are-they-good-for/

EDIT: Similar points made here: https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/russias-massively-powerful-nukes-are-strategic-duds/

both posts are prior to Ukraine invasion.

I think it would be a mistake to believe that everything in Russia’s nuclear arsenal is 100% working order.

Sounds there’s some amount of Potemkin bombs.

CraigMichael Oct 10, 2022, 7:02 AM
1 point
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on: AMC’s animated series “Pantheon” is relevant to our interests
I suppose this is a reason to keep my AMC+ subscription. Better Call Saul was pretty good, but I didn’t use it for anything else.

CraigMichael Oct 10, 2022, 3:34 AM
2 points
in reply to: IrenicTruth’s comment on: Book summary: Unlocking the Emotional Brain
Did you finish reading it?

CraigMichael Oct 10, 2022, 1:05 AM
1 point
−3
in reply to: Algon’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
EDIT: Removed “nuclear arsenal not working because Russia didn’t bother to maintain them” as I don’t find that especially likely on reflection.
What reflection changed your probability here? The probability here seems non-zero to me, and maybe likely.

EDIT: not sure what the down votes are about. Curious as to what made you change your mind.

CraigMichael Oct 10, 2022, 12:49 AM
2 points
3
in reply to: Sausage Vector Machine’s comment on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
Careful about assigning anything a 100% probability.

CraigMichael Oct 10, 2022, 12:40 AM
2 points
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on: Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
There’s potential paths that this model doesn’t include. I have to believe that the Five Eyes have done some amount of work to find ways to hamstring Russias nuclear capabilities (I recall stories that “we” were able to sabotage chips in in the supply chain for Iraq’s missiles, for example). Meaning, there’s a chance Russia does some kind of nuclear launch and it’s horribly botched for one reason or another. Their own incompetence, supply chain sabotage, etc. They may, then, be reluctant to launch another.
I don’t know what a reasonable prior is to set on this. Much has been made of the out-dated technology the US has to manage our own nuclear arsenal, and we spend an awful lot more on our military than Russia does. Who really knows what they’re capable of here? So far, they haven’t accurately estimated their own military strength.
There are probably other outcomes we haven’t thought of. ¹⁄₆ seems high, but I take the point that we could be underestimating the threat here.

EDIT: Will take that this is an unpopular opinion, but not sure why?

CraigMichael Oct 5, 2022, 9:50 PM
1 point
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on: Lakewood, CO – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2022
I may have RSVP’d yes here but forgot this was Yom Kippur. Sorry guys, family plans tonight.

CraigMichael Oct 3, 2022, 7:19 PM
1 point
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on: Covid 9/29/22: The Jones Act Waver
There can be no clearer proof of the abuse of an emergency than extending it after publicly declaring that it is over.
I disagree. The pandemic is over in the sense that we’ve learned to live with the virus. The pandemic is not over in the sense that the social and economic consequences are still with us. So there’s a sense in which I can get it.

CraigMichael Sep 22, 2022, 6:03 PM
1 point
in reply to: Will_Newsome’s comment on: [Link] Reason: the God that fails, but we keep socially promoting….
I know this is old—do you have your research here on lifting and testosterone?

CraigMichael Sep 22, 2022, 5:46 PM
1 point
in reply to: Halfwit’s comment on: [LINK] Soylent crowdfunding
Made it really hard for me to poop normally.

CraigMichael Sep 22, 2022, 5:41 PM
1 point
in reply to: RomeoStevens’s comment on: [LINK] Soylent crowdfunding
It’s also given via IV, which means bioavailability via digestion wouldn’t apply.

CraigMichael Sep 13, 2022, 8:43 AM
2 points
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in reply to: CallumMcDougall’s comment on: Which LessWrong content would you like recorded into audio/podcast form?
Searching for this on Audible now and not finding it.

CraigMichael Sep 13, 2022, 8:41 AM
5 points
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on: Which LessWrong content would you like recorded into audio/podcast form?
Personally, I’d prefer no alignment posts unless they’re useful summaries, or “here’s how to get up to speed on AI alignment.” With the alignment content, even with a comp sci background, it’s like I’m jumping in to The Chronicles of Amber 3/4ths of the way in to the book. I just don’t know what’s going on.