There’s potential paths that this model doesn’t include. I have to believe that the Five Eyes have done some amount of work to find ways to hamstring Russias nuclear capabilities (I recall stories that “we” were able to sabotage chips in in the supply chain for Iraq’s missiles, for example). Meaning, there’s a chance Russia does some kind of nuclear launch and it’s horribly botched for one reason or another. Their own incompetence, supply chain sabotage, etc. They may, then, be reluctant to launch another.
I don’t know what a reasonable prior is to set on this. Much has been made of the out-dated technology the US has to manage our own nuclear arsenal, and we spend an awful lot more on our military than Russia does. Who really knows what they’re capable of here? So far, they haven’t accurately estimated their own military strength.
There are probably other outcomes we haven’t thought of. 1⁄6 seems high, but I take the point that we could be underestimating the threat here.
EDIT: Will take that this is an unpopular opinion, but not sure why?
From the current numbers (-3 and −4) your post does not seem to be heavily downvoted. I believe there may be some users here who see any arguments for a smaller threat as dangerous. As long as there are not many upvotes, even a very small number of users with this attitude could lead to those numbers. We have seen a similar dynamic with the public health authorities during the Covid crisis (prioritizing message control over epistemic rationality).
There’s potential paths that this model doesn’t include. I have to believe that the Five Eyes have done some amount of work to find ways to hamstring Russias nuclear capabilities (I recall stories that “we” were able to sabotage chips in in the supply chain for Iraq’s missiles, for example). Meaning, there’s a chance Russia does some kind of nuclear launch and it’s horribly botched for one reason or another. Their own incompetence, supply chain sabotage, etc. They may, then, be reluctant to launch another.
I don’t know what a reasonable prior is to set on this. Much has been made of the out-dated technology the US has to manage our own nuclear arsenal, and we spend an awful lot more on our military than Russia does. Who really knows what they’re capable of here? So far, they haven’t accurately estimated their own military strength.
There are probably other outcomes we haven’t thought of. 1⁄6 seems high, but I take the point that we could be underestimating the threat here.
EDIT: Will take that this is an unpopular opinion, but not sure why?
From the current numbers (-3 and −4) your post does not seem to be heavily downvoted. I believe there may be some users here who see any arguments for a smaller threat as dangerous. As long as there are not many upvotes, even a very small number of users with this attitude could lead to those numbers. We have seen a similar dynamic with the public health authorities during the Covid crisis (prioritizing message control over epistemic rationality).
Thanks. Was feeling crazy for a moment.