EDIT: Removed “nuclear arsenal not working because Russia didn’t bother to maintain them” as I don’t find that especially likely on reflection.
What reflection changed your probability here? The probability here seems non-zero to me, and maybe likely.
EDIT: not sure what the down votes are about. Curious as to what made you change your mind.
That wasn’t something I’ve put actual thought into, or was something that came from an expert I trusted. Maybe it is true, but I’d need to think more about it before I was OK with claiming it was so. And I just didn’t feel like doing that.
What reflection changed your probability here? The probability here seems non-zero to me, and maybe likely.
EDIT: not sure what the down votes are about. Curious as to what made you change your mind.
That wasn’t something I’ve put actual thought into, or was something that came from an expert I trusted. Maybe it is true, but I’d need to think more about it before I was OK with claiming it was so. And I just didn’t feel like doing that.