I agree with you regarding the problem with Trump’s rhetoric. However, the way I see it, we have a choice between a candidate with terrible rhetoric and bad policies, and a candidate with bad rhetoric and terrible policies. I think on every important issue except Ukraine Harris’ policies are likely to be significantly worse.
My first question for you is, are these the actual reasons you support Trump, or are these the arguments for him you’d present?
On the economy, there is a high chance that Harris’ most irrational ideas, such as price controls, would remain a dead letter (especially if Republicans keep control of the House), so it is not implausible that the outcome of the 2024 elections would not matter much for the economy. I do not have such hopes about the other two issues and I do believe them to be very important.
Another important issue I have not listed is the Democrats’ hold on government agencies and public institutions. While I do not like Trump’s behavior in the aftermath of the 2020 elections, I do not think that he was actually attempting a coup or that he had any real chance to hold on to the presidency even if he tried. In contrast, Democrats remain substantially in control of the executive powers even when their party loses the elections.
I do not disagree with anything you wrote in this comment. My statement about empirical evidence was made in the context of policy discussion. When one politician consistently worked to implement some policy (for example, restricting illegal immigration) and another politician worked to sabotage it, the most plausible assumption is that they would stay on the same course during their next term in office. It is also possible that the politicians would radically change course and, in principle, one can make theories trying to predict such changes. However, in practice, people (myself included) are usually very bad at making such predictions.