I certainly don’t think that Trump is great. He has an erratic personality, poor focus, and lies far more frequently than the average politician. That said, on most issues I care about I expect him to perform better than Harris:
Economy.
I don’t know any historical precedent when attempts to reduce inflation via price controls did not result in a costly failure. I would appreciate it if you could point me to a contrary example.
Immigration.
I believe that mass immigration of uneducated people would negatively affect the economy and the political system of the country.
Individual liberties
In recent decades, the capture of government agencies and academic institutions by progressive ideology has led to severe restrictions on freedom of speech and freedom of conscience. I don’t know if Trump would be able to reverse this trend but at least I don’t expect him to make it worse.
Feel free to argue with these points or to give your own.
Economy Well that obviously depends on what you mean with “price controls”. None of the candidates give that much details on their economic policies, but Harris has mostly focused on anti-price gouging legislation. Now maybe you disagree with this legislation, but you have to compare it to Trumps economic policies: he wants to increase tariffs drastically, which would increase inflation. He also wants the Fed to be less independent, which could cause them to prioritize short term politics, which would be bad for the long term economy.
Immigration The president doesn’t control immigration alone. Any changes to the immigration process in the US would need bipartisan support. Now luckily, there is bipartisan support for improving the immigration process. That’s why there was a bipartisan bill drafted earlier this year to improve the immigration process in various ways. Passing the bill would be good for the US, but bad for Trump as it would make it harder to say that the democrats don’t care about immigration. So he told the republicans to vote NO, and they killed the bill because of it. That shows that Trump cares more about winning the election, than improving the border.
Individual liberties The examples you give are a little vague. I don’t know any restrictions that the Biden administration has done to freedom of speech or freedom of conscience. I do know that some people consider the right to abortion a Individual liberty, which is now banned in multiple states because of Trump. Trump has also said he wants to put people in jail for expressing their freedom of speech through burning flags. That’s a pretty severe restriction.
Empirical observations are usually more reliable than theoretical arguments.
Trump already passed a large number of tariffs during his first term and the inflation remained significantly lower than under Biden/Harris administration.
Illegal immigration was far lower under Trump than under Biden/Harris administration.
Here is one example: In recent years, NSF made submitting DEI statements a precondition to obtaining scientific grants. Any STEM researcher who thinks that, for example, discriminating against talented Asian students based on their race is immoral, is now required to publicly lie about their beliefs or be denied research funds. Since getting grants is generally a prerequisite to getting tenure, this also means that politically non-compliant people are now barred from starting a career in the academy.
I agree empirical observations are generally more reliable than theoretical argument.
But higher tariffs does in general increase inflation right? And he didn’t influence the Fed that much during his administration, but if he did then it would make the economy worse, right? And it wasn’t higher during the Biden/Kamala administration because of price-controls, right?
Yes, I agree that it was lower. But when voting you don’t vote for outcomes, you vote for people who have policies which affect outcomes. When politicians tried to improve the border, Trump told them not to do it. He sabotaged legislation that you would like, to increase the chances that he would win. It feels like you’re rewarding Trump for making the border situation worse. I think that is bad.
If I look up the NSF on Wikipedia, then it says that it’s an “independent agency”. This means that it is not controlled by the president. It’s ok to dislike that policy, but you shouldn’t blame Biden for it, because he doesn’t control the agency. If Trump was the president, he wouldn’t control the agency either. But sure, he could cooperate with other branches of government to influence the NSF. He could also use other branches of government to make it illegal to burn flags. Is that good? Is that not a limit on freedom of speech?
To me it feels like you’re bringing up small disagreements you have in some policies with the Biden/Kamala administration, but turning a blind eye to the huge problems with a Trump/Vance administration.
It seems that you are trying to prove to me that Trump’s policies, such as tariffs, would also have downsides. This is obviously true.
> To me it feels like you’re turning a blind eye to the huge problems with a Trump/Vance administration.
I must admit that after you mentioned that you don’t know any restrictions that the Biden administration has done to freedom of speech I felt the same way. However, personal feelings are subjective, and, most likely, we are both biased on this issue. Can you think of a good rational argument that Trump’s call to imprison flag burners is a greater threat to freedom of speech than the currently existing restrictions in academic institutions?
Sorry for writing two comments, but I’m really curious of some ground beliefs, because it feels a little silly to talk about specific policy proposals without mentioning the—in my mind—biggest reason not to vote for Trump: he tried to steal the last election.
More specifically, he said after the election that the election was rigged against him. He had a bunch of court cases which sought to prove that the election was rigged against him, and pretty much every case was proven false. Then when his vice president were to certify electors from the state, Trump wanted him to use fake electors, which were not sent from the states, to say that Trump won the election. If his plan would have worked, then Trump would have stolen the election. But Pence did not do that, because Pence didn’t want to steal the election. He later said Trump “demanded that I choose between him and the constitution, [..] I chose the constitution”. That’s why the crowd was yelling “hang Mike Pence” during Jan 6.
I strongly disapprove of Trump’s post-election antics, but I believe them to be less important than the Democrat’s use of illegal immigration to boost their vote. If the US had no illegal immigration from Latin America, the Democrats would have lost about a fifth of their current voters, and, unless they radically changed their platform, would have lost all Congress and Presidential elections in the past twenty years.
Thanks for answering but I don’t get it. I think trying to steal an election is really bad. Is it just that Trump didn’t succeed that makes the difference?
And I don’t really know what you refer to when you say “Democrat’s use of illegal immigration to boost their vote”. I know illegal (and legal) immigrants tend to lean democrat, but illegal immigrants can’t vote. Is there some study looking at demographic patterns or so? What are the immigration policies of democrats that you think is wrong, and do you have a problem with legal immigration, as that helps democrats too?
Also, immigrants are more than just votes. America has historically had a high level of immigration, who bring a lot of good to the US. Just because a policy is good for democrats doesn’t make it into a bad policy. If you don’t like immigration or naturalization, then that’s fine, but I don’t think democrats should avoid a policy just because it will help them.
The “Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986” was passed by Ronald Reagan, a Republican, so probably not an attempt by democrats to get votes.
I believe the most likely interpretation of the events is that Trump was not actually trying to steal the elections but to make most Republicans believe that the victory was stolen from him so that he could have another chance in 2024.
Where are you getting this interpretation? He is not saying this, no one around him is saying this. He says that the 2020 election was rigged. He says that it was so rigged that he should be able to suspend the constitution. He tried to execute a plan which, if successful, would have made him president. How was he not trying? Was Rudy Giuliani not trying? Were the fake electors not trying when they signed all those fake documents? Was Trump not trying on January 6, when he told the protestors to pressure Mike Pence to go through with his plan? Were the Proud Boys not trying when they broke into the capitol? Were whoever placed pipe bombs around DC on Jan 5 not trying?
It feels like for someone not trying, he sure made a large impact and made a lot of people believe that he was trying and that they should try to help him win (because it was so rigged).
Well the reason I didn’t think of DEI statements and such is because that’s not really something Trump talks about much, right? He mostly talks about immigration (cats and dogs!), Ukraine, inflation, etc. So I don’t know much about it.
Also, I don’t really see DEI statements as a restriction on “freedom of speech” or “freedom of conscience”. If I understand correctly, it’s that grants by NSF to institutions have to have a section explaining their DEI initiatives. And sure you can disagree if that should be a factor, and maybe you think it’s stupid to have as a requirement, but just because they have different priorities/beliefs than you doesn’t mean they’re stifling freedom of speech.
Imagine if the government started caring a lot about AI and NSF required people to talk about their AI work/impact in every funding request. Would that be stupid? Yes, because a lot of important work isn’t that relevant to AI. But this doesn’t really impact freedom of speech, it just means they prioritize research differently than you would. The government thinks DEI should affect research grants. You don’t. Someone will always feel left out when funding is allocated, and feel “forced” to act in some ways to receive funding. But I don’t see that as a restriction on “freedom of speech”.
When it comes to burning the flag, maybe it’s a bad example. In my mind, burning the flag just means hating on America and I don’t think that should be illegal. But some people see burning the flag like destroying something holy, so they treat that restriction differently than other restrictions. But it’s still a more clear restriction than DEI statements. It’s an actual law that restricts how you are allowed to express yourself in America.
But when it comes to infiltration of institutions, I find it worrying when Vance says:
Fire every single midlevel bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state, replace them with our people.
What does he mean with “our people”? Would it be a restriction on freedom of speech to fire every civil servant and replace them with “our people”? I think it would. Surely he doesn’t mean people who are critical of Trump as “our people”.
Also, I think removing the right to abortion from millions of people is a much clearer restriction of liberty than DEI statements or banning flag-burning.
Would it be a restriction on freedom of speech to fire every civil servant and replace them with “our people”? I think it would.
Why does your argument about how the government is free to allocate funding however it wishes in the context of NSF grants not apply to civil servant salaries? About personal loyalty to Trump over the Constitution[1] or whatever,
you can disagree if that should be a factor, and maybe you think it’s stupid to have as a requirement, but just because they have different priorities/beliefs than you doesn’t mean they’re stifling freedom of speech.
…
But this doesn’t really impact freedom of speech, it just means they prioritize [not being critical of Trump] differently than you would. The government thinks [party loyalty] should affect [civil service positions]. You don’t. Someone will always feel left out when [civil service hiring] is allocated, and feel “forced” to act in some ways to receive [employment]. But I don’t see that as a restriction on “freedom of speech”.
If I understand correctly, it’s that grants by NSF to institutions have to have a section explaining their DEI initiatives.
Grants to individual researchers now also require the DEI statement. I think the AI is not a very good analogy because:
it’s apolitical
I assume that in your example historians and cancer researchers would not lose their jobs for saying heretical things in their AI statements.
A more appropriate analogy would be abortion. Suppose the progressive admins in the NSF are replaced with Christian conservatives who replace the DEI statement with the statement on the “sanctity of life”. To get grants, all researchers must demonstrate how their work is relevant to the fight against the murder of unborn children. Those who refuse or argue in favor of pro-choice policies do not get funding and, after a few years, are forced to quit academic institutions. Would you consider this policy a restriction on the freedom of speech and conscience or just a shift in government priorities?
It would probably be more constructive if we focus on one issue at a time, so I suggest we finish this topic before discussing others.
It would probably be more constructive if we focus on one issue at a time, so I suggest we finish this topic before discussing others.
Okay.
I see all of these decision of deciding what to fund and how to fund them as political. I mean, during the last century a lot of marine research was done through the military, and that shaped what kind of research was done, and which people could do it (probably not anti-war people). I see all of these things as changing government priorities and not restrictions on freedom of speech or conscience.
On the topic of DEI statements themselves, I don’t really think it’s that productive to require them on a large scale. Many universities and research agencies motivate them by saying that it’s important for them to have a diverse base of researches to be more effective/have more perspectives or that it’s the moral thing to do, after excluding them historically. And sure, that might make sense, but I think what that means depends a lot on the scientific field and where in America it’s done. So such policies are probably better done on a more local level.
I also see that the way the Biden/Harris admin has influenced the NSF is through two executive orders (1, 2) which I don’t think is that good. If NSF changed their priority or if laws are passed to change their mandate then that’s one thing, but executive orders are pretty blunt. They also make it hard to say who to blame for things like DEI statements as the executive orders are pretty vague. As the NSF is still an independent agency, it feels like DEI statements are more something the NSF made up to promote DEI and which Biden/Harris is allowing, then something they made them do.
But if someone just dislikes DEI statements then it doesn’t matter that much why exactly they were implemented, as the important part is that Trump would probably get rid of them.
So basically, I think it’s kind of a bad policy, but not that big of a deal.
The problem is that these questions depend a lot on the details. I don’t know much about the impact of DEI statements or how they are used. I mean, the Biden/Harris administration doesn’t have a policy which is “anti-DEI scientists should be fired” or even “NSF grants should require DEI statements”. The NSF just has the mission “to promote the progress of science, to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare, and to secure the national defense”. That’s really vague, and now the Biden/Harris administration has passed some vague executive orders. But even without executive orders, the NSF could just believe that promoting DEI efforts is important to achieve their mission more effectively. They may be mistaken, but I don’t think I can have that much to say about it if I’m not well read about it. That’s why I talk so much about process and why I dislike the use of executive orders as it’s kind of a sidestep of the normal process (I think).
Basically my answer is (2), but it depends on the details and I just haven’t seen that much of an impact of these DEI statements. I just think there are differences between the candidates that are a lot more important than their impact on DEI in academia.
Choosing (2) makes you an extreme outlier among Democrats, so to be honest, it’s a little hard to believe that you thought it through very well. In your opinion, why is it so bad to replace progressive civil servants with conservatives (“our people”), but doing the same for college professors is not?
So someone who doesn’t agree with democrats hasn’t thought through what they think? That doesn’t sound right. I already said I disagree with the policy and how it’s implemented. I just think there are other things which are a lot more important.
And I don’t think choosing (2) is that weird, I just think it matters a lot what the process is to “filter out” people. Trump has said that he wants to make every executive branch employee fireable by the president. That gives a lot of power to the president, which I think is bad. I think it’s good if the government has a system of checks and balances which limits the presidents power so that the government has a more “slow” and consistent policy, so that the employees don’t feel like they are micromanaged by the President.
Fair enough. My own opinion is that, beyond hurting freedom of speech, hiring researchers based on their race, sexual orientation, and ideological compliance is doing massive damage to scientific progress and undermines the ability of research institutions to provide objective information on matters of public policy (COVID-19, AGW, etc.). However, people can indeed have different opinions on the importance of these issues.
I responded to your other questions in two separate comments.
I’d like to push back against the idea that empirical observations are more reliable than theoretical arguments. 1. Did you say this because you have empirical data showing that empirical data is more reliable, or do you believe it should be more reliable on theoretical grounds? 2. Here’s a reductio ad absurdum: Empirically, a terrible pandemic started under Trump’s presidency and 0 pandemics have emerged under the Biden/Harris administration. Thus, relying on empirical observation, we should vote for Harris to avoid another pandemic. 3. Empirical observation, literally, can only tell you the past. I can observe that on Tuesday July 11, at 3:13pm, a bird chirped, but that doesn’t give me any information about whether I will observe a bird chirp tomorrow. So, when we say “empirical observation” here, we really just mean “the theory that the same things will happen next time”, which is just a naive theory. Additional empirical observations have helped us establish more nuanced theories like “inflation is related to the money supply” that would let us assign the cause for inflation to the economic stimulus used to prevent a covid recession, instead of to the sitting president. So, I think that we need empirical observations to build valid theories, but making connections between these observations allows us to leverage that knowledge to gain insight in novel contexts. One of those contexts is that future, so any time you want to talk about the future, you are inherently talking theory.
I do not disagree with anything you wrote in this comment. My statement about empirical evidence was made in the context of policy discussion. When one politician consistently worked to implement some policy (for example, restricting illegal immigration) and another politician worked to sabotage it, the most plausible assumption is that they would stay on the same course during their next term in office. It is also possible that the politicians would radically change course and, in principle, one can make theories trying to predict such changes. However, in practice, people (myself included) are usually very bad at making such predictions.
You are correct that major legal changes in the immigration process generally require bipartisan support. However, controlling the executive branch is already sufficient to sabotage the implementation of the existing laws. In 1986 the US passed a bipartisan compromise bill that naturalized illegal immigrants residing in the US in return for measures that were supposed to prevent further illegal immigration. However, subsequent Democratic administrations largely refused to enforce them allowing illegal immigration to grow. There is no obvious reason to think that the recent bill proposed by Democrats would have been any different. Given that it was proposed during the election year, its only effect would have been to allow Democrats to pretend that the issue has been resolved and remove it as a discussion topic during the election campaign.
The bill was a bipartisan bill though. As described by republican James Lankford:
It is interesting: Republicans, four months ago, would not give funding for Ukraine, for Israel and for our southern border because we demanded changes in policy, [..] And now, it’s interesting, a few months later, when we’re finally getting to the end, they’re like, ‘Oh, just kidding, I actually don’t want a change in law because it’s a presidential election year.’
It’s effect would have been to improve the border. That’s why there were republicans who wanted it passed, because they wanted to improve the border. Some democrats probably also want to improve the border, while some democrats just want to pass the bill to improve the chances that the democrats would be elected again. But the republicans probably don’t want the democrats to win, and probably just wanted to pass the bipartisan border bill to improve the border.
I appreciate you sharing your perspective! My first question for you is, are these the actual reasons you support Trump, or are these the arguments for him you’d present? What I mean is that, as someone who doesn’t support Trump, I have plenty of arguments I can give for why he’s a poor candidate, but if I’m honest, my direct reason for not wanting to vote for him is a strong negative association I’ve built with him over the past 8 years. Now, why do I have that negative association? Well, hard to know 100%, but I suspect it’s his divisive rhetoric. I always hear him talking about us vs them, the media being unfair, lock her up, people rigging elections, etc. I remember in 2016 when he won I thought, “hey, I didn’t like how he campaigned, but now that he won, maybe he’ll turn out to be decent president, and then in his “American carnage” inauguration speech he talked about how he was only going to be a president for the people who voted for him, and I was like “well, there goes that theory”. The other turning point for me was when he refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power repeatedly leading up to the 2020 election, which is a huge red flag for me. So my actual reasons for not supporting Trump are: I dislike his divisive rhetoric and fear the impact of electing someone who rejects the tradition of peacefully giving up power when voted out. What are your actual reasons, if they are different from the issues you’ve already shared?
I agree with you regarding the problem with Trump’s rhetoric. However, the way I see it, we have a choice between a candidate with terrible rhetoric and bad policies, and a candidate with bad rhetoric and terrible policies. I think on every important issue except Ukraine Harris’ policies are likely to be significantly worse.
My first question for you is, are these the actual reasons you support Trump, or are these the arguments for him you’d present?
On the economy, there is a high chance that Harris’ most irrational ideas, such as price controls, would remain a dead letter (especially if Republicans keep control of the House), so it is not implausible that the outcome of the 2024 elections would not matter much for the economy. I do not have such hopes about the other two issues and I do believe them to be very important.
Another important issue I have not listed is the Democrats’ hold on government agencies and public institutions. While I do not like Trump’s behavior in the aftermath of the 2020 elections, I do not think that he was actually attempting a coup or that he had any real chance to hold on to the presidency even if he tried. In contrast, Democrats remain substantially in control of the executive powers even when their party loses the elections.
I certainly don’t think that Trump is great. He has an erratic personality, poor focus, and lies far more frequently than the average politician. That said, on most issues I care about I expect him to perform better than Harris:
Economy.
I don’t know any historical precedent when attempts to reduce inflation via price controls did not result in a costly failure. I would appreciate it if you could point me to a contrary example.
Immigration.
I believe that mass immigration of uneducated people would negatively affect the economy and the political system of the country.
Individual liberties
In recent decades, the capture of government agencies and academic institutions by progressive ideology has led to severe restrictions on freedom of speech and freedom of conscience. I don’t know if Trump would be able to reverse this trend but at least I don’t expect him to make it worse.
Feel free to argue with these points or to give your own.
I can argue some:
Economy Well that obviously depends on what you mean with “price controls”. None of the candidates give that much details on their economic policies, but Harris has mostly focused on anti-price gouging legislation. Now maybe you disagree with this legislation, but you have to compare it to Trumps economic policies: he wants to increase tariffs drastically, which would increase inflation. He also wants the Fed to be less independent, which could cause them to prioritize short term politics, which would be bad for the long term economy.
Immigration The president doesn’t control immigration alone. Any changes to the immigration process in the US would need bipartisan support. Now luckily, there is bipartisan support for improving the immigration process. That’s why there was a bipartisan bill drafted earlier this year to improve the immigration process in various ways. Passing the bill would be good for the US, but bad for Trump as it would make it harder to say that the democrats don’t care about immigration. So he told the republicans to vote NO, and they killed the bill because of it. That shows that Trump cares more about winning the election, than improving the border.
Individual liberties The examples you give are a little vague. I don’t know any restrictions that the Biden administration has done to freedom of speech or freedom of conscience. I do know that some people consider the right to abortion a Individual liberty, which is now banned in multiple states because of Trump. Trump has also said he wants to put people in jail for expressing their freedom of speech through burning flags. That’s a pretty severe restriction.
Empirical observations are usually more reliable than theoretical arguments.
Trump already passed a large number of tariffs during his first term and the inflation remained significantly lower than under Biden/Harris administration.
Illegal immigration was far lower under Trump than under Biden/Harris administration.
Here is one example: In recent years, NSF made submitting DEI statements a precondition to obtaining scientific grants. Any STEM researcher who thinks that, for example, discriminating against talented Asian students based on their race is immoral, is now required to publicly lie about their beliefs or be denied research funds. Since getting grants is generally a prerequisite to getting tenure, this also means that politically non-compliant people are now barred from starting a career in the academy.
I agree empirical observations are generally more reliable than theoretical argument.
But higher tariffs does in general increase inflation right? And he didn’t influence the Fed that much during his administration, but if he did then it would make the economy worse, right? And it wasn’t higher during the Biden/Kamala administration because of price-controls, right?
Yes, I agree that it was lower. But when voting you don’t vote for outcomes, you vote for people who have policies which affect outcomes. When politicians tried to improve the border, Trump told them not to do it. He sabotaged legislation that you would like, to increase the chances that he would win. It feels like you’re rewarding Trump for making the border situation worse. I think that is bad.
If I look up the NSF on Wikipedia, then it says that it’s an “independent agency”. This means that it is not controlled by the president. It’s ok to dislike that policy, but you shouldn’t blame Biden for it, because he doesn’t control the agency. If Trump was the president, he wouldn’t control the agency either. But sure, he could cooperate with other branches of government to influence the NSF. He could also use other branches of government to make it illegal to burn flags. Is that good? Is that not a limit on freedom of speech?
To me it feels like you’re bringing up small disagreements you have in some policies with the Biden/Kamala administration, but turning a blind eye to the huge problems with a Trump/Vance administration.
It seems that you are trying to prove to me that Trump’s policies, such as tariffs, would also have downsides. This is obviously true.
> To me it feels like you’re turning a blind eye to the huge problems with a Trump/Vance administration.
I must admit that after you mentioned that you don’t know any restrictions that the Biden administration has done to freedom of speech I felt the same way. However, personal feelings are subjective, and, most likely, we are both biased on this issue. Can you think of a good rational argument that Trump’s call to imprison flag burners is a greater threat to freedom of speech than the currently existing restrictions in academic institutions?
Sorry for writing two comments, but I’m really curious of some ground beliefs, because it feels a little silly to talk about specific policy proposals without mentioning the—in my mind—biggest reason not to vote for Trump: he tried to steal the last election.
More specifically, he said after the election that the election was rigged against him. He had a bunch of court cases which sought to prove that the election was rigged against him, and pretty much every case was proven false. Then when his vice president were to certify electors from the state, Trump wanted him to use fake electors, which were not sent from the states, to say that Trump won the election. If his plan would have worked, then Trump would have stolen the election. But Pence did not do that, because Pence didn’t want to steal the election. He later said Trump “demanded that I choose between him and the constitution, [..] I chose the constitution”. That’s why the crowd was yelling “hang Mike Pence” during Jan 6.
Do you care about that?
I strongly disapprove of Trump’s post-election antics, but I believe them to be less important than the Democrat’s use of illegal immigration to boost their vote. If the US had no illegal immigration from Latin America, the Democrats would have lost about a fifth of their current voters, and, unless they radically changed their platform, would have lost all Congress and Presidential elections in the past twenty years.
Thanks for answering but I don’t get it. I think trying to steal an election is really bad. Is it just that Trump didn’t succeed that makes the difference?
And I don’t really know what you refer to when you say “Democrat’s use of illegal immigration to boost their vote”. I know illegal (and legal) immigrants tend to lean democrat, but illegal immigrants can’t vote. Is there some study looking at demographic patterns or so? What are the immigration policies of democrats that you think is wrong, and do you have a problem with legal immigration, as that helps democrats too?
Also, immigrants are more than just votes. America has historically had a high level of immigration, who bring a lot of good to the US. Just because a policy is good for democrats doesn’t make it into a bad policy. If you don’t like immigration or naturalization, then that’s fine, but I don’t think democrats should avoid a policy just because it will help them.
The “Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986” was passed by Ronald Reagan, a Republican, so probably not an attempt by democrats to get votes.
Where are you getting this interpretation? He is not saying this, no one around him is saying this. He says that the 2020 election was rigged. He says that it was so rigged that he should be able to suspend the constitution. He tried to execute a plan which, if successful, would have made him president. How was he not trying? Was Rudy Giuliani not trying? Were the fake electors not trying when they signed all those fake documents? Was Trump not trying on January 6, when he told the protestors to pressure Mike Pence to go through with his plan? Were the Proud Boys not trying when they broke into the capitol? Were whoever placed pipe bombs around DC on Jan 5 not trying?
It feels like for someone not trying, he sure made a large impact and made a lot of people believe that he was trying and that they should try to help him win (because it was so rigged).
Well the reason I didn’t think of DEI statements and such is because that’s not really something Trump talks about much, right? He mostly talks about immigration (cats and dogs!), Ukraine, inflation, etc. So I don’t know much about it.
Also, I don’t really see DEI statements as a restriction on “freedom of speech” or “freedom of conscience”. If I understand correctly, it’s that grants by NSF to institutions have to have a section explaining their DEI initiatives. And sure you can disagree if that should be a factor, and maybe you think it’s stupid to have as a requirement, but just because they have different priorities/beliefs than you doesn’t mean they’re stifling freedom of speech.
Imagine if the government started caring a lot about AI and NSF required people to talk about their AI work/impact in every funding request. Would that be stupid? Yes, because a lot of important work isn’t that relevant to AI. But this doesn’t really impact freedom of speech, it just means they prioritize research differently than you would. The government thinks DEI should affect research grants. You don’t. Someone will always feel left out when funding is allocated, and feel “forced” to act in some ways to receive funding. But I don’t see that as a restriction on “freedom of speech”.
When it comes to burning the flag, maybe it’s a bad example. In my mind, burning the flag just means hating on America and I don’t think that should be illegal. But some people see burning the flag like destroying something holy, so they treat that restriction differently than other restrictions. But it’s still a more clear restriction than DEI statements. It’s an actual law that restricts how you are allowed to express yourself in America.
But when it comes to infiltration of institutions, I find it worrying when Vance says:
What does he mean with “our people”? Would it be a restriction on freedom of speech to fire every civil servant and replace them with “our people”? I think it would. Surely he doesn’t mean people who are critical of Trump as “our people”.
Also, I think removing the right to abortion from millions of people is a much clearer restriction of liberty than DEI statements or banning flag-burning.
Why does your argument about how the government is free to allocate funding however it wishes in the context of NSF grants not apply to civil servant salaries? About personal loyalty to Trump over the Constitution[1] or whatever,
This dovetails nicely with your other argument, about him “trying to steal the last election.”
If I understand correctly, it’s that grants by NSF to institutions have to have a section explaining their DEI initiatives.
Grants to individual researchers now also require the DEI statement. I think the AI is not a very good analogy because:
it’s apolitical
I assume that in your example historians and cancer researchers would not lose their jobs for saying heretical things in their AI statements.
A more appropriate analogy would be abortion. Suppose the progressive admins in the NSF are replaced with Christian conservatives who replace the DEI statement with the statement on the “sanctity of life”. To get grants, all researchers must demonstrate how their work is relevant to the fight against the murder of unborn children. Those who refuse or argue in favor of pro-choice policies do not get funding and, after a few years, are forced to quit academic institutions. Would you consider this policy a restriction on the freedom of speech and conscience or just a shift in government priorities?
It would probably be more constructive if we focus on one issue at a time, so I suggest we finish this topic before discussing others.
Okay.
I see all of these decision of deciding what to fund and how to fund them as political. I mean, during the last century a lot of marine research was done through the military, and that shaped what kind of research was done, and which people could do it (probably not anti-war people). I see all of these things as changing government priorities and not restrictions on freedom of speech or conscience.
On the topic of DEI statements themselves, I don’t really think it’s that productive to require them on a large scale. Many universities and research agencies motivate them by saying that it’s important for them to have a diverse base of researches to be more effective/have more perspectives or that it’s the moral thing to do, after excluding them historically. And sure, that might make sense, but I think what that means depends a lot on the scientific field and where in America it’s done. So such policies are probably better done on a more local level.
I also see that the way the Biden/Harris admin has influenced the NSF is through two executive orders (1, 2) which I don’t think is that good. If NSF changed their priority or if laws are passed to change their mandate then that’s one thing, but executive orders are pretty blunt. They also make it hard to say who to blame for things like DEI statements as the executive orders are pretty vague. As the NSF is still an independent agency, it feels like DEI statements are more something the NSF made up to promote DEI and which Biden/Harris is allowing, then something they made them do.
But if someone just dislikes DEI statements then it doesn’t matter that much why exactly they were implemented, as the important part is that Trump would probably get rid of them.
So basically, I think it’s kind of a bad policy, but not that big of a deal.
Can you clarify your answer a little? Do you consider this policy to be not that big of a deal because
it only forces anti-DEI scientists out of the academy, or
the specific ideological filter does not matter and forcing out all pro-choice and pro-DEI scientists would not be that big of a deal either.
The problem is that these questions depend a lot on the details. I don’t know much about the impact of DEI statements or how they are used. I mean, the Biden/Harris administration doesn’t have a policy which is “anti-DEI scientists should be fired” or even “NSF grants should require DEI statements”. The NSF just has the mission “to promote the progress of science, to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare, and to secure the national defense”. That’s really vague, and now the Biden/Harris administration has passed some vague executive orders. But even without executive orders, the NSF could just believe that promoting DEI efforts is important to achieve their mission more effectively. They may be mistaken, but I don’t think I can have that much to say about it if I’m not well read about it. That’s why I talk so much about process and why I dislike the use of executive orders as it’s kind of a sidestep of the normal process (I think).
Basically my answer is (2), but it depends on the details and I just haven’t seen that much of an impact of these DEI statements. I just think there are differences between the candidates that are a lot more important than their impact on DEI in academia.
Choosing (2) makes you an extreme outlier among Democrats, so to be honest, it’s a little hard to believe that you thought it through very well. In your opinion, why is it so bad to replace progressive civil servants with conservatives (“our people”), but doing the same for college professors is not?
So someone who doesn’t agree with democrats hasn’t thought through what they think? That doesn’t sound right. I already said I disagree with the policy and how it’s implemented. I just think there are other things which are a lot more important.
And I don’t think choosing (2) is that weird, I just think it matters a lot what the process is to “filter out” people. Trump has said that he wants to make every executive branch employee fireable by the president. That gives a lot of power to the president, which I think is bad. I think it’s good if the government has a system of checks and balances which limits the presidents power so that the government has a more “slow” and consistent policy, so that the employees don’t feel like they are micromanaged by the President.
Fair enough. My own opinion is that, beyond hurting freedom of speech, hiring researchers based on their race, sexual orientation, and ideological compliance is doing massive damage to scientific progress and undermines the ability of research institutions to provide objective information on matters of public policy (COVID-19, AGW, etc.). However, people can indeed have different opinions on the importance of these issues.
I responded to your other questions in two separate comments.
I’d like to push back against the idea that empirical observations are more reliable than theoretical arguments.
1. Did you say this because you have empirical data showing that empirical data is more reliable, or do you believe it should be more reliable on theoretical grounds?
2. Here’s a reductio ad absurdum: Empirically, a terrible pandemic started under Trump’s presidency and 0 pandemics have emerged under the Biden/Harris administration. Thus, relying on empirical observation, we should vote for Harris to avoid another pandemic.
3. Empirical observation, literally, can only tell you the past. I can observe that on Tuesday July 11, at 3:13pm, a bird chirped, but that doesn’t give me any information about whether I will observe a bird chirp tomorrow. So, when we say “empirical observation” here, we really just mean “the theory that the same things will happen next time”, which is just a naive theory. Additional empirical observations have helped us establish more nuanced theories like “inflation is related to the money supply” that would let us assign the cause for inflation to the economic stimulus used to prevent a covid recession, instead of to the sitting president.
So, I think that we need empirical observations to build valid theories, but making connections between these observations allows us to leverage that knowledge to gain insight in novel contexts. One of those contexts is that future, so any time you want to talk about the future, you are inherently talking theory.
I do not disagree with anything you wrote in this comment. My statement about empirical evidence was made in the context of policy discussion. When one politician consistently worked to implement some policy (for example, restricting illegal immigration) and another politician worked to sabotage it, the most plausible assumption is that they would stay on the same course during their next term in office. It is also possible that the politicians would radically change course and, in principle, one can make theories trying to predict such changes. However, in practice, people (myself included) are usually very bad at making such predictions.
You are correct that major legal changes in the immigration process generally require bipartisan support. However, controlling the executive branch is already sufficient to sabotage the implementation of the existing laws. In 1986 the US passed a bipartisan compromise bill that naturalized illegal immigrants residing in the US in return for measures that were supposed to prevent further illegal immigration. However, subsequent Democratic administrations largely refused to enforce them allowing illegal immigration to grow. There is no obvious reason to think that the recent bill proposed by Democrats would have been any different. Given that it was proposed during the election year, its only effect would have been to allow Democrats to pretend that the issue has been resolved and remove it as a discussion topic during the election campaign.
The bill was a bipartisan bill though. As described by republican James Lankford:
It’s effect would have been to improve the border. That’s why there were republicans who wanted it passed, because they wanted to improve the border. Some democrats probably also want to improve the border, while some democrats just want to pass the bill to improve the chances that the democrats would be elected again. But the republicans probably don’t want the democrats to win, and probably just wanted to pass the bipartisan border bill to improve the border.
I appreciate you sharing your perspective! My first question for you is, are these the actual reasons you support Trump, or are these the arguments for him you’d present? What I mean is that, as someone who doesn’t support Trump, I have plenty of arguments I can give for why he’s a poor candidate, but if I’m honest, my direct reason for not wanting to vote for him is a strong negative association I’ve built with him over the past 8 years. Now, why do I have that negative association? Well, hard to know 100%, but I suspect it’s his divisive rhetoric. I always hear him talking about us vs them, the media being unfair, lock her up, people rigging elections, etc. I remember in 2016 when he won I thought, “hey, I didn’t like how he campaigned, but now that he won, maybe he’ll turn out to be decent president, and then in his “American carnage” inauguration speech he talked about how he was only going to be a president for the people who voted for him, and I was like “well, there goes that theory”. The other turning point for me was when he refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power repeatedly leading up to the 2020 election, which is a huge red flag for me. So my actual reasons for not supporting Trump are: I dislike his divisive rhetoric and fear the impact of electing someone who rejects the tradition of peacefully giving up power when voted out.
What are your actual reasons, if they are different from the issues you’ve already shared?
I agree with you regarding the problem with Trump’s rhetoric. However, the way I see it, we have a choice between a candidate with terrible rhetoric and bad policies, and a candidate with bad rhetoric and terrible policies. I think on every important issue except Ukraine Harris’ policies are likely to be significantly worse.
On the economy, there is a high chance that Harris’ most irrational ideas, such as price controls, would remain a dead letter (especially if Republicans keep control of the House), so it is not implausible that the outcome of the 2024 elections would not matter much for the economy. I do not have such hopes about the other two issues and I do believe them to be very important.
Another important issue I have not listed is the Democrats’ hold on government agencies and public institutions. While I do not like Trump’s behavior in the aftermath of the 2020 elections, I do not think that he was actually attempting a coup or that he had any real chance to hold on to the presidency even if he tried. In contrast, Democrats remain substantially in control of the executive powers even when their party loses the elections.