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Self Fulfilling/​Re­fut­ing Prophecies

TagLast edit: Feb 4, 2025, 3:20 AM by Ruby

A Self Fulfilling Prophecy is a prophecy that, when made, affects the environment such that it becomes more likely. similarly, a Self Refuting Prophecy is a prophecy that when made makes itself less likely. This is also relevant for beliefs that can affect reality directly without being voiced, for example, the belief “I’m confident” can increase a person confidence, thus making it true, while the opposite belief can reduce a person’s confidence, thus also making it true.

Related pages: Social Reality

The Parable of Pre­dict-O-Matic

abramdemskiOct 15, 2019, 12:49 AM
354 points
43 comments14 min readLW link2 reviews

FixDT

abramdemskiNov 30, 2023, 9:57 PM
59 points
15 comments14 min readLW link1 review

Magic Shoes

onurMar 24, 2021, 9:14 PM
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Proper scor­ing rules don’t guaran­tee pre­dict­ing fixed points

Dec 16, 2022, 6:22 PM
79 points
8 comments21 min readLW link

Sex­ual Abuse at­ti­tudes might be infohazardous

Pseudonymous OtterJul 19, 2022, 6:06 PM
256 points
72 comments1 min readLW link

Omega and self-fulfilling prophecies

Richard_KennawayMar 19, 2011, 5:23 PM
14 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Believ­ing In

AnnaSalamonFeb 8, 2024, 7:06 AM
230 points
51 comments13 min readLW link

Thoughts on safety in pre­dic­tive learning

Steven ByrnesJun 30, 2021, 7:17 PM
19 points
17 comments19 min readLW link

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempereDec 3, 2020, 10:00 PM
126 points
28 comments9 min readLW link

Self-Su­per­vised Learn­ing and AGI Safety

Steven ByrnesAug 7, 2019, 2:21 PM
29 points
9 comments12 min readLW link

Self-fulfilling correlations

PhilGoetzAug 26, 2010, 9:07 PM
151 points
50 comments3 min readLW link

Self-Fulfilling Prophe­cies Aren’t Always About Self-Awareness

John_MaxwellNov 18, 2019, 11:11 PM
14 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Self-fulfilling val­ues of time

KatjaGraceMar 18, 2017, 10:00 PM
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Fifty Shades of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

PhilGoetzJul 24, 2014, 12:17 AM
38 points
87 comments2 min readLW link

An ex­am­ple of self-fulfilling spu­ri­ous proofs in UDT

cousin_itMar 25, 2012, 11:47 AM
33 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Notes on Op­ti­mism, Hope, and Trust

David GrossJan 20, 2021, 11:00 PM
13 points
1 comment20 min readLW link

Defin­ing Myopia

abramdemskiOct 19, 2019, 9:32 PM
32 points
18 comments8 min readLW link

Ran­dom Thoughts on Pre­dict-O-Matic

abramdemskiOct 17, 2019, 11:39 PM
35 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part II

orthonormalApr 6, 2012, 6:59 PM
26 points
28 comments7 min readLW link

Luck II: Ex­pect­ing White Swans

fowlertmDec 15, 2013, 5:40 PM
10 points
87 comments7 min readLW link

Poli­tics is way too meta

Rob BensingerMar 17, 2021, 7:04 AM
291 points
46 comments11 min readLW link1 review

De­scrip­tive vs. pre­scrip­tive optimism

jasoncrawfordJan 22, 2022, 7:50 PM
18 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

En­courage­ment to In­still Con­fi­dence?

ZviFeb 18, 2022, 10:30 PM
16 points
5 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

1 What If We Re­build Mo­ti­va­tion with the Fermi ESTIMATion?

P. JoãoDec 17, 2024, 7:46 AM
6 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Con­di­tion­ing Gen­er­a­tive Models for Alignment

JozdienJul 18, 2022, 7:11 AM
59 points
8 comments20 min readLW link

An Un­mea­sured Song of Measurement

jan SijanSep 21, 2024, 3:08 PM
−3 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Emo­tional is­sues of­ten have an im­me­di­ate payoff

ChipmonkJun 10, 2024, 11:39 PM
26 points
2 comments4 min readLW link
(chrislakin.blog)

The Parable of Pre­dict-O-Matic

abramdemskiOct 15, 2019, 12:49 AM
354 points
43 comments14 min readLW link2 reviews

Fore­cast­ing is a responsibility

DirectedEvolutionDec 5, 2020, 12:40 AM
23 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

Fish­e­rian Ru­n­away as a de­ci­sion-the­o­retic problem

BunthutMar 20, 2021, 4:34 PM
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Prophetic Hazard

onurApr 16, 2021, 10:09 AM
−1 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Train­ing goals for large lan­guage models

Johannes TreutleinJul 18, 2022, 7:09 AM
28 points
5 comments19 min readLW link

self-fulfilling prophe­cies when ap­ply­ing for funding

ChipmonkMar 1, 2024, 7:01 PM
31 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(chipmonk.substack.com)

How evolu­tion­ary lineages of LLMs can plan their own fu­ture and act on these plans

Roman LeventovDec 25, 2022, 6:11 PM
39 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

Stop-gra­di­ents lead to fixed point predictions

Jan 28, 2023, 10:47 PM
37 points
2 comments24 min readLW link

In Strate­gic Time, Open-Source Games Are Loopy

StrivingForLegibilityJan 18, 2024, 12:08 AM
21 points
2 comments6 min readLW link