Pascal’s Mugging

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[Question] “Fanatical” Longtermists: Why is Pascal’s Wager wrong?

Yitz27 Jul 2022 4:16 UTC

3 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Oct 2007 23:37 UTC

112 points

353 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Has there been any work on attempting to use Pascal’s Mugging to make an AGI behave?

Chris_Leong15 Jun 2022 8:33 UTC

7 points

17 comments1 min readLW link

Desiderata for an Adversarial Prior

Shmi9 Nov 2022 23:45 UTC

13 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Dissolve: The Petty Crimes of Blaise Pascal

JohnBuridan12 Aug 2022 20:04 UTC

17 points

4 comments6 min readLW link

Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 May 2013 0:43 UTC

73 points

402 comments26 min readLW link

Against the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Penalty

AlexMennen14 Dec 2017 18:38 UTC

41 points

47 comments11 min readLW link

The Lifespan Dilemma

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Sep 2009 18:45 UTC

61 points

220 comments7 min readLW link

More on the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Prior

AlexMennen26 Feb 2018 23:53 UTC

16 points

4 comments9 min readLW link

Pascal’s Muggle (short version)

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 May 2013 23:36 UTC

48 points

53 comments11 min readLW link

Observed Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]28 Jun 2011 15:53 UTC

36 points

61 comments1 min readLW link

Probabilities Small Enough To Ignore: An attack on Pascal’s Mugging

Kaj_Sotala16 Sep 2015 10:45 UTC

27 points

176 comments5 min readLW link

Pascal’s mugging in reward learning

Stuart_Armstrong5 Nov 2017 19:44 UTC

9 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Expected utility, unlosing agents, and Pascal’s mugging

Stuart_Armstrong28 Jul 2014 18:05 UTC

32 points

54 comments5 min readLW link

Tactics against Pascal’s Mugging

ArisKatsaris25 Apr 2013 0:07 UTC

26 points

54 comments8 min readLW link

Consider Reconsidering Pascal’s Mugging

Rafael Harth3 Jan 2018 0:03 UTC

5 points

9 comments3 min readLW link

A Thought on Pascal’s Mugging

komponisto10 Dec 2010 6:08 UTC

15 points

159 comments1 min readLW link

Pascal’s Mugging for bounded utility functions

Benya6 Dec 2012 22:28 UTC

18 points

49 comments2 min readLW link

Comments on Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]3 May 2012 21:23 UTC

15 points

31 comments2 min readLW link

No, I won’t go there, it feels like you’re trying to Pascal-mug me

Rupert11 Jul 2018 1:37 UTC

9 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Pascal’s Mugging—Penalizing the prior probability?

XiXiDu17 May 2011 14:44 UTC

12 points

30 comments2 min readLW link

Pascal’s Gift

Bongo25 Dec 2010 19:42 UTC

13 points

46 comments1 min readLW link

What do you mean by Pascal’s mugging?

XiXiDu20 Nov 2014 16:38 UTC

10 points

24 comments2 min readLW link

An investment analogy for Pascal’s Mugging

[deleted]9 Dec 2014 7:50 UTC

9 points

36 comments1 min readLW link

Strongmanning Pascal’s Mugging

Pentashagon20 Feb 2013 12:36 UTC

4 points

20 comments2 min readLW link

Pascal’s Muggle Pays

Zvi16 Dec 2017 20:40 UTC

25 points

17 comments4 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Being Half-Rational About Pascal’s Wager is Even Worse

Eliezer Yudkowsky18 Apr 2013 5:20 UTC

63 points

162 comments9 min readLW link

Model Uncertainty, Pascalian Reasoning and Utilitarianism

multifoliaterose14 Jun 2011 3:19 UTC

35 points

155 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How do bounded utility functions work if you are uncertain how close to the bound your utility is?

Ghatanathoah6 Oct 2021 21:31 UTC

13 points

26 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Has Pascal’s Mugging problem been completely solved yet?

EniScien6 Nov 2022 12:52 UTC

3 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is acausal extortion possible?

sisyphus11 Nov 2022 19:48 UTC

−20 points

34 comments3 min readLW link

SBF, Pascal’s Mugging, and a Proposed Solution

Cole Killian18 Nov 2022 18:39 UTC

−1 points

5 comments5 min readLW link

(colekillian.com)

[Question] What qualities does an AGI need to have to realize the risk of false vacuum, without hardcoding physics theories into it?

RationalSieve3 Feb 2023 16:00 UTC

1 point

4 comments1 min readLW link

Could Roko’s basilisk acausally bargain with a paperclip maximizer?

Christopher King13 Mar 2023 18:21 UTC

1 point

8 comments1 min readLW link

Hyperbolic Discounting and Pascal’s Mugging

Andrew Keenan Richardson23 Dec 2023 21:55 UTC

9 points

0 comments7 min readLW link

AGI is uncontrollable, alignment is impossible

Donatas Lučiūnas19 Mar 2023 17:49 UTC

−12 points

21 comments1 min readLW link

Should we maximize the Geometric Expectation of Utility?

A.H.17 Apr 2024 10:37 UTC

5 points

17 comments9 min readLW link

Pascal’s Mugging and the Order of Quantification

Mascal's Pugging10 May 2024 18:34 UTC

11 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

Solving Pascal’s Wager using dynamic programming

Paul Wilczewski10 Jul 2024 18:09 UTC

1 point

0 comments5 min readLW link

Demography and Destiny

Zero Contradictions21 Jul 2024 20:34 UTC

6 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

(thewaywardaxolotl.blogspot.com)

Overpopulation FAQs

Zero Contradictions10 Aug 2024 4:21 UTC

−12 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

(zerocontradictions.net)

[Question] (i no longer endorse this post) - cryonics is a pascal’s mugging?

KvmanThinking25 Oct 2024 23:24 UTC

−12 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

No comments.

Pas­cal’s Mugging

Pascal’s Mugging